Kingmaker II-Game Over

[VitaminR]

Mnowax is even more annoying and apathetic than me.

That's quite a feat.

vote: mnowax

That, as well as mnowax's MoS vote, is quite awful.

Vote: Toaster Strudel, mnowax

[Mastermind of Sin]

RafK, I'm sorry.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Errrr... I'll try to complete my analysis before the deadline... if I have the time to do so.

[RafK]

OK, MoS.

MoS has posted a lot more than Fritz, btw.

First post from MoS is worth quoting, lest we forget what he said.

And now begins my masterful plan of finally playing through an entire game without voting. Unless I become king, lol.

Boy but that caused a lot of discussion. That actually pre-disposes me to be in favour of MoS a little bit. A mostly mountainous game has precious little to discuss on day 1, and to create a discussion is good town play IMO. Not to mention it made him a potential target for King PJ, which is just unnecessary for a scum on day 1 IMO. Pooky lurked, SV sucked up to the king, but neither intentionally got themselves noticed in a bad way.

MoS gets accused of trying to fly under the radar with this tactic by a number of people (Twomz, who became CES: town) and MM (who became Zindy: likely town in my book) and Yos (and we all know my opinion on Yos), and defends himself. In fairness, this is a lousy way to fly under the radar, MoS is quite right.

MoS mildly calls out Vaughn (now Cavane: ?) and Ameliaslay (LL: town), essentially for seconding and thirding a joke by MBL about PJ.

More argument with Yosarian.

SV attacks MoS' non-voting stance, while also barning his prod against Vaughn and Ameliaslay

. I'm not sure what to make of this, but I'm sure it's important. It would help if I'd got more experience with how SV operates. Drawing attention to it for the benefit of those who do. The post (and MoS' response to it) is found at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 803#443803

MoS argues more with MM (Zindy) and reinforces that he is suspicious of Twomz, Vaughn and Ameliaslay. This is not an auspicious group to be arguing about, but it's still early day 1.

MoS says: "I believe PJ is protown". This could be interpreted as sucking up to the king a la SV, since it sure as hell has no impact on the day's execution.

MoS says box (now Lowell: ?, leaning to town in my book just because he backed me against SV and Yos) is town, then gets into an argument with

SV

who asks why box is town. Again, is this distancing or is this for real? I can't pick.

Has "bad feeling" about Glork (town) although doesn't appear to act on it.

Generally expresses feelings against putting up an LoE too early in a day (agreeing with Glork on this).

Another response to an SV post. SV wants PJ to outline who he finds suspicious, MoS points out PJ has already done so. It's a pretty inconsequential disagreement though.

MoS supports Phoebus (now VR).

SV is attacking Phoebus at this time; as we are aware, Yos also attacked Phoebus around this time. Not that Yos is proven scum YET. Ahem.

As an aside, the amount in which my opinion of MoS and VR relies on the alignment of others is annoyingly large.

Still more argument with SV. I still can't pick how legit this is. On the one hand, it's getting excessive. On the other, the arguments between them are totally lightweight.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 718#457718

Strongly opposes Phoebus (VR) execute after PJ ponders it

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 269#458269
and then continues to defend Phoebus, including yet another direct response to SV (who is attacking Phoebus):
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 802#458802
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 830#458830

MoS day 1 execution preferences: Yos (potential scum), Ubertimmy (town kingmaker), Thok (townie killed that night by the scum)

. Again not an auspicious choice of targets, and no common ground with his earlier suspicions. Although he does immediately add Twomz- another person we now know is town- to that list.

Ultimately expresses no opinions on PJ's final LoE, other than not to kill Phoebus.

Of interest compared to the Fritzler analysis: most people MoS talks about are now dead, or have been strongly involved, whereas Fritzler's choices are almost exclusively alive and relatively under the radar.

Day 2:
His first post is to suggest bird (now KScope: ?) will be a good execution a day or two "from now". I presume this is following a lost "nut-kick" conversation? Later posts suggest MoS was strongly against the nut-kick theory, which as I understand it was Pooky's theory: therefore this is probably a pro-MoS point.

We reach the post by StallingChamp (now ThAdmiral, and this is the best thing ThAdmiral has going for him IMO) where SC votes for Pooky, Fritz and MoS. MoS' rebuttal of SC's argument is pretty convincing though. I can't speak for what MoS may have said about bird, but he is correct that he gave reasons for his stance on Phoebus.

MoS supports Glork's putting of Yos on the LoE

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 417#475417

MoS interaction with Pooky and Yos at the same time

: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 369#481369

This is an odd one. Pooky did an "analysis". Yos largely agreed with Pooky- feel free to tell me if you think this is slanderm Yos- including Pooky's assessment of MoS as town. MoS takes offence to their unflattering reasons for considering him town. I can't work what this says about MoS, besides that he's got his vanity.

MoS supports both Yos and Pooky executions, leaning Yos

. If Yos is scum, I would argue that this whole pattern of events is nearly conclusively pro-MoS... he makes no attempt at all to set up a "one or the other" scenario to gain clearance for one scum out of the death of the other, or to try and get anyone else in the mix, and he's been consistent about it.

If Yos isn't scum, the whole view changes.


Day3:
SV attacks MoS for leaning Yos instead of Pooky. This tbh doesn't feel like distancing, this sort of attack could have gone the distance with Pooky now a proven scum.

Glork attacks MoS. MoS explains himself reasonably well to my mind, and doesn't attempt to OMGUS or otherwise cast doubt on Glork. There's a bit of back and forth and some concessions by Glork. This exchange reads fairly well for MoS. One of the more interesting issues is that Glork believes Pooky is the sort who would place ALL his scumbuddies as neutral or protown in his big analysis post. It will be worth going back over that post in the next couple of days.

Yos attacks MoS.

MoS analyzes everyone

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 201#493201
OK, actually only 4 people, but he SAID everyone.
He was right that CTD was town, may or may not be right that Dead Rikimaru was scum, Der Hammer was a lurker, and may or may not be right that Fritz is scum. This looks like a decent list- but only because he lists two people as scum who are alive and are currently under varying levels of suspicion.

PJ calls out an SV slip (I am comfortable at this point in saying it was indeed a slip!). Lowell backs his play and also adds a vote on MoS and a pro-town read for Glork and me. MoS only responds (and not really helpfully at all) to the vote on him. MoS occasionally slips into this fatalistic "I'm gonna die and then you'll know it was scum attacking me" phase, which annoys me but I can't necessarily classify as scum- it's not like it's designed to put off lynches on him, more likely to annoy people into voting him IMO. Also, as we are all aware, there was a general malaise setting in as day 3 dragged on and we waited for the king (and then replacement king) to do something.

More analysis by MOS

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 743#498743
Skips Glork, PJ, ZIndy, Yos and pablito (now Thesp).
Reads KScope as neutral, Lowell as town, Mert as needing replacement (which had happened by then, hi!), same for Nightson, neutral to Olio, still feels Phoebus is "genuine", Samus needs replacement.

This is exceedingly useless stuff.

MoS consistently flags that Dead Rikimaru is the top of his scum list throughout day 3.

After DR's alleged "analysis" post, MoS slags it off (correctly) for not being an analysis post, just regurgitating what people said.

Top 3 scum list at end of day: DR, LL (who we now know is town), PJ- doesn't like how PJ's kingship ended. Once again a reasonably inauspicious list, although I can't say I liked how PJ's kingship ended either... it's mostly PJ's play since day 1 that's got him in my good books.


Will continue this tomorrow. The general theme, though, is much as I often disagree with his scum list choices- a point which continues up to the present- on my current read of the game I find MoS to be town, both in who he argues with and how he does it. This has the potential to change based on people dying and coming up with alignments I don't expect. I definitely do not support executing MoS before Yos (or before Fritz, or a couple of others for that matter).

[Fritzler]

Yesterday felt very odd. Happy to see spectrumvoid dead, and willing to back off the Zindaras hate now. Must re-read to get some bearing, and this was th elast game I got to tonight, and I'm pooped.

Before I forget: Fritz, who's the play today?

I really like this question.

is this the question you want answered thesp?

I still contend its TS.

Who is also scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay. I need to get this done – so I won't leave for Thespival until I do. First is Thesp.

7.) Thesp

(

rep. Pablito

)

Isolating posts, so I'll put the isolated post number in brackets. I'll try to put aside my current feelings and read as freshly as possible and see where I end up.

[0/1/3] Starting with Pablito. As everybody knows, he started off the game unequivocally defending Glork on the basis that "he's going to try to live up to last Kingmaker so he's got a tough image to beat" (with the added note that he would rather "sniff" at less visible players). This probably wouldn't be the best way to get into Glork's good graces, so if this is scum play it is certainly not optimal – and I know from experience in College Mafia that Pablito

usually

tries to lie somewhat low as scum, which is contrary to his debut in this game.

[4] Pablito says that "more structure is better than less structure", which was the attitude I kept in KM1 as scum – I'm thinking having a foundation is fine, but flexibility is the key. Nothing against Pablito though, I think it would be reasonable to take this stance as town as well, just felt like mentioning it. His comment sounds right about DR, but the MBL vote with "MBL's comments on cb0x make me feel awkward" doesn't read right. I remember catching something that looked scummy on cb0x at the time as well. In conjunction with [5], defends cb0x, which I ultimately agree with though Pablito came to the conclusion in a manner that looks premature to me. Neutral overall... there are obviously people who get reads faster than I do, but defending somebody with weak reasoning is an easy thing for scum to do as well.

Eh... [7] saying "I was waiting and delaying[...] to see if you'd persist" seems overly convenient a response – if MBL hadn't persisted, Pablito gets off without responding. I'm not crazy about these types of responses. Negative points. Things which have the general structure of "of

course

I did [

X

scummy thing]! I did it for [

Y

tiny possible pro-town reason]!" I tend to not like. I can understand the vote on Mert, however from the explanation Pablito gives, though I think that's more of a testament that Pablito hadn't had the experience of playing with Mert at that time like I had.

...

And I just realized Pablito has 167 posts, not including Thesp's, so I'm gonna try to hold back thoughts unless it's something noteworthy.

Some good prod-like posts – slight pro-town points. Has explanations for actions. There are a few comments I don't like, primarily [31] "You gotta think though, why would I become even more suspicious at this time of the day? especially after people began to stop suspecting me?", which is a rather silly riposte, especially when he tries to end with the last word of "yeah, but you're still a fool" [32]. O'course, I often have a similar mentality when I see people vote me: 'you're either stupid or scum', which is pretty much what Pablito's comment here boils down to.

Strange note – Pablito largely defended Glork on D1 when I was King, and largely defended me on D2 while Glork was King. I'm not really seeing a malicious significance in this, however.

Very nice explanations for some things, such as [59]. Either way, a lot of effort being put in. Another nice post in [61]. Good stuff. Feels very pro-town, or exceptionally smooth scum (which strikes me as less probable).

Note: Seems to play the 'waiting game' more than a few times (such as waiting to explain votes), so this actually helps to neutralize my earlier comment about him purposely not responding to MBL – that simply appears to be the way Pablito was playing this game. I'll retract those negative points unless I see something which looks contradictory.

Pablito seems to have been paralleling many of my thoughts early-game (not in a 'following' manner, though) and explaining them in his own way, which means we were probably reading many of the same things in the same posts – which means it is makes it less likely to be fabricated. Pro-town points. I almost want to give him pro-town points just for saying "I think the LoE sucks" in [79], but that's under the tenet that people who are willing to fly in the face of a King are more likely to be town, which I know is incorrect since SV did the same thing. Don't like [80] where he unvotes everybody but Mert.

Don't much care for his vote on me (obviously), but I suppose it's good to know he didn't have a strategy to try to stay in my good graces all game. I don't remember that stage of the game too much (beginning of D3), but I don't recall a bandwagon on me so I wouldn't call it very opportunistic from memory. Could just be poking around.

[105] his top 3 were Mert, olio, and LL. His suspicions of Mert and olio are consistent with his posts throughout the entire game, and he seems to have gone down a similar path I had with LL (first thinking he was very original and pro-town, and slowly thinking his posts were relying too much on other players he said were town). He also seems to veer back towards thinking LL was town just I was as day was petering down (as evidenced by [113]). Again, another uncanny parallel of my thinking at that stage – pro-town points.

Note to Self

: [117]. I'll have to read this one again later in context, because it involves a defense of SV. Hard to comment on without knowing what SV was doing at the time, however. Has some dancing between me/LL near the end, seemed more inquisitive than nefarious (additionally so since he was clearly bothering to read back in the game).

[162] has another defense of SV, probably worth reading over again.

Now, on to Thesp.

[4] starts off against MoS, SV, DH. I was about to ask what Thesp's "twice as many X's" referred to, but I apparently did that back when that post was made (gives self pat on back). Some back-and-forth with MoS... looks very Thesp-like is all I can say of it, really. Surprising amount of explanation in [8], I'm used to shorter posts from him. Thesp seems much more confident and confrontational in this game than the last time I saw him as scum [which was when he was a SK in Old Maid], so a few meta-game town points there.

Thesp, could you explain your post [29] more, please? You said you would "clarify later", and I would like to see this happen.

Yeesh, short analysis for Thesp. Overall thoughts:

Pablito was pretty clearly dabbling in some WIFOM, but it really doesn't look like scummy dabbling – just somebody experimenting. He was very much into prodding and making sure people were talking/posting/explaining, and although he defended people they were all appear to be fair and explained defenses, and he had no qualms in going against the same people he was defending (main example being me). Thoughts seemed to coincide largely with my early-game thoughts, suggests lack of falseness. Seemed quick in responding to complaints against him, and was clearly trying out a few ways to test things (such as not explaining votes immediately).

Thesp looks very much like Thesp. *shrug* All I would really have to do is requote what I've already said. Both players come off as pro-town to me individually, so together I also consider them pro-town. If this role is scum, Pablito put a

lot

of effort into the game, which doesn't strike me as something Pablito normally does early in the game (instead keeping under the radar, which I mentioned earlier concerning College Mafia).

I'll get to Lowell in a bit.

[petroleumjelly]

8.) Lowell

(

rep. carb0ardb0x

)

Mario:

Here-a we go! *sound of Mario going in a tube*

Flag comes up with the proposing a Pablito/Glork/MBL scum-group, but then not voting Glork. He then votes Glork after this is mentioned with the caveat "for pressure, and then take it off" (which of course applies to pressure whatsoever, especially in a game where votes do not lynch). Between [5/7/8/9/10], I definitely get the vibe of a townie going up in flames. He comes back with some content [12], all in the course of a few days. [16] seems pretty genuine. He starts sticking to his guns with bird1111 and Phoebus, which shows he was at least taking the hint at how the game is played. His posting peters off until we get...

Lowell. [1] he clearly shows he's taking notes on post numbers – I probably shouldn't be giving this pro-town points, but people clearly showing that they are reading through the game tends to act as a plus for me. He explains who he thinks is town, who he thinks is scum, and suggests a couple topics for discussion. Very nice.

Seems willing to read posts and agree with them. [4] has "Those are good reasons. I'm convinced", [9] has him voting CTD with "why the Hell not?".

A few unhelpful one-liners... prodded multiple times, comes back with lots of "nothing to say"s, which is annoying to say the least. Lowell was giving good reasons and discussion when he first entered, but he has definitely dropped off in terms of that. Negative points for rolling his eyes when people vote for Dead Rikimaru when he was King, but then voting for Zindaras when Zindie was King – appears to be rather contradictory.

Also, when Lowell entered the game he said Zindaras was the most town person, but votes him when Zindie was King. In [32] there is an implication that he was suspicious of Zindaras, which I have not caught a whiff of prior to in the thread, nor do I see any explanations. Lowell, could you go into detail about this? (I see that you call Zindie town again in [34], but I'm interested in what was going on between your first post saying Zindie was town to your vote on him while he was King).

Read through [37] twice now. Looks legit to me, so hopefully he gets to the second half of his assignment soon.

So – overall I still think the cb0x situation looks like a townie meltdown. I think this has consistently been my feeling the entire game, and I feel the same way each time I read through that series of posts. His revelations he had (about changing his mind over whether the Kingmaker should out themselves) look real and nonmalicious. Lowell's entrance was very good, and his suggestions for discussion looked townish. His biggest black mark is his continual comment that he has "nothing to add" after being prodded multiple times – I will also need an explanation for how his thoughts towards Zindaras have progressed through the game, because at the moment I don't understand them. His first half of his assignment looks good.

Mostly based on cb0x, I think Lowell is also town.

If I had to choose between executing Thesp or Lowell. Hmm. I would personally rather not execute either, clearly, but if I had to choose who was more likely to be

scum

, I would execute Thesp – simply because I know Pablito has the ability to play a fantastic game as scum (which is what his play would require in this game), whereas I have a hard time seeing cb0x's meltdown coming from scum.

I don't know how much time I'll have for the game during Thespival, but we'll see what happens. Everybody

really

needs to finish their assignments ASAP.

[RafK]

MoS part two. You've already got my conclusions, so I will be brief.

Day 4 (Yosarian's day of kingship):

MoS proposes mnowax as the execution and

opposes the execution of SV

. He is consistent on this theme throughout. He is also consistent about pressing for the execution of Smashy (the replacement for DR, whom MoS had been against previously)

As I said in the first half, I don't really agree with MoS' opinions very much on who's scummy. That said, I'm under no illusions that townies will always be correct about who they choose to attack. It is not inconsistent for MoS to propose mnowax for execution and then push that: it's people who took advantage of the wagon MoS started that I'm suspicious of.

He advises against the execution of Shanba (who turned out to be the kingmaker!).

Tries to link Battle Mage and VR to Smashy coming up scum.

Generally whacks at mnowax, and also attacks me for coming to mnowax's defense :rolleyes: And generally accuses anyone against the mnowax lynch of being a scum :rolleyes:
Ironically, part of my "misguided town" read on MoS is that despite the fact that this part of his rationale for being anti-me has turned out to be wrong, he's persisted with a general anti-me vibe. Over time I have come to realise that it's usually townies who do that. Scum are more likely to try and change tunes because they're completely aware that their case has become publically baseless.


Day 5 (Zindy's kingship) MoS plumps for Fritzler and Battle Mage (who was ironically replaced by mnowax). Now admits he could see SV as scum.

MoS badgers mnowax to try and legitimise his error of day 4

:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 926#590926

Here's some things to get you started actually contributing:

What do you think of Spectrumvoid, Yosarian2, Zindaras, Fritzler, and RafK, individually?

Why do you think Zindaras was elected King?

Do you think there is a connection between SV and Yos2?

What do you think of petroleumjelly's analysis's of everyone so far?

Why do you think mnowax1 completely failed to defend himself against legitimate points brought up against him that explained why he was scum?

(Emphasis mine).

Way to try and shift the blame onto the guy who got lynched. I don't like that tactic AT ALL, and it's one of the points of doubt for me in my general outlook on MoS (along with the way he has buddied up to Yosarian).

MoS then has to answer some suspicion of himself again, which is just a repetition of earlier MoS attacks and defenses.

Throws a bit of suspicion lowell's way.

Agrees with Yos in one of the little spats between Yos and I.

Thesp then PBPA's MoS and MoS responds

: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 127#598127
As with the pooky review, this is something I need to look at in greater depth than "skim" to get a good feel for.

MoS then returns to Fritzler attack and a VR "PBPA"; his VR "PBPA" is noteworthy as being about as analysis-free as the Dead Rikimaru "analysis" MoS attacked so well. Finds VR to be pro-town.

More Thesp v MoS (here's yet another person who's alignment will affect what I think about MoS).

MoS then attacks VR a bit for defending Dead Rikimaru/whoever his current replacement is- a reversal of earlier attitudes, but based only on new posts by VR so that's consistent- and to say Fritz is his choice for lynch ahead of SV, who he finds more likely to be scum than VR (which doesn't seem exactly the order you'd expect from his earlier posts, but is not unimaginable either).

Keeps asking other people questions about what they think about other people. I feel this is strongly pro-town play, encouraging people to commit to positions, provided that the questioner also gives opinions. MoS has been, so I read this as townie play.

MoS' post 191: MoS comes around on SV instead of Fritz and agrees with the arguments run by me and others that the Fritz wagon seemed like the previous day's mnowax wagon. He sticks by this SV-ahead-of-Fritz choice for the remainder of the day. Knowing if he was choosing scum over town or scum over 2nd scum will make a difference.

Also starts his push on Toaster Strudel before the end of this day.

Today: MoS has kind of angled back towards being with Yos again. Other than that, he did his assignment here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 922#647922 Finds TS to be scum (no shock there). Leans townie on Cavane. Otherwise has dueled a bit with TS. I can certainly buy TS as scum so this is not a bad sign for me on MoS.


While there's been bad signs here and there for MoS in the last couple of days of his play, it's not enough overall to overcome my feeling he's probably a townie who's made some mistakes.

[Zindaras]

Okay, let's start with ThAdmiral. These are the entries into my earlier analysis for him.

MBL

thinks pablito,

ubertimmy/Nightfall

and ChannelDelibird/StallingChamp are scum.
PJ,

Twomz

and ChannelDelibird/SC attack cbox.
Pablito defends cbox and attacks CDB/SC for voting him.
CDB/SC FoSes PJ and votes Mert (for tying two people together).
MoS thinks PJ is Town.

Ubertimmy/Nightfall

agrees.
Pablito votes CDB/SC for not attacking

Thok

for binding two people together.

Thok

pushes pablito for voting CDB.
PJ posts his LoE, containing bird, Phoebus, CDB/SC and pablito. However, he doesn't think pablito is scum.
Cbox unvotes bird and votes pablito. He's not suspicious of CDB, but he is suspicious of Phoebus.

MBL

thinks CDB/SC is being awkward.
PJ threw CDB/SC on the LoE to incite reactions (this was also vibe from the original LoE).
Mert's list of suspicions regarding the LoE is Phoebus-bird-pablito-CDB.
PJ executes

Rosso

.

CTD

votes PJ, SC,

Twomz

and

timmy/Nightfall

.

Spectrumvoid

votes

timmy/Nightfall

and SC for the same reasoning as 557.
Pablito votes SC for no reason and is losing confidence in cbox.
Pablito thinks SC is scummy, cbox is townish,

spectrumvoid

is scummy.
SC votes

Pooky

, Fritz and MoS.

Glork

posts a LoE containing

MBL

, Mert,

Pooky

, Yos, tentative Pablito,

CTD

and SC.

It's interesting to note that Voidybuns jumped on CTD's Post 557 (a move I characterised as scummy before) to vote both Skruffs/Nightfall/Timmy (now dead Kingmaker) and ThAdmiral/StallingChamp/Olio/ChannelDelibird.

I'll go back in time on this one and take a closer look at 557. In Post 557, CTD votes the following four people over the following reasons:

PJ: The way the Rosso execution played out.
SC: Lurking and supporting PJ's execution plan.
Twomz: Burden of proof, over-eagerness on the birdwagon.
Ubertimmy: Lurking.

The link between SC and PJ here is worth pointing out.

In Post 558, pablito votes both timmy and CTD, saying CTD's reason for voting PJ is very weak. Pablito is buddying up to PJ like there's no tomorrow. Voidy votes for Timmy and SC, citing 557 as her exact source. Another interesting defense of PJ in that post. Upon a closer re-read (I'm getting the feeling I'm digressing slightly now...) I also found two posts that look like PJ-defenses from Pooky, namely 211 and 999. However, in 211, it seems his defense of PJ is more of an attack on Glork, and in 999, one can only help but wonder what Pooky's thoughts were, coming in. After all, at that point, Pooky was on the LoE and a quite probable execution. It's a real shame Pooky never finished his analysis, so we don't know what he said about voidybuns.

But, for comparison, we'll take a look at Pooky's list of opinions:

Scum: bird.
Suspicious: CTD (Town), Mert.
Town: Cbox, LuckayLuck (Town), MoS, MBL (Town), Nightson, pablito, PJ.

Interesting to note here is his Dead Rikimaru section, in which he says there will be more about Dead Riki in the pablito section, but, as far as I can see, there's nothing there. I definitely think that that is a scum-tell for Dead Rikimaru, now mnowax.

I think I've digressed way too much now, so back to ThAdmiral.

CdB is the first person to have played that role. He votes cbox in his second post, though his point is reasonably strong. Then we get his next post, which is in response to a pablito post which I really don't like (95), as pablito stresses how much risk he's taking by defending cbox, something which looks an awful lot like scum defending town to me. Doesn't want to out the Kingmaker, meh, next post is more interesting.

The next post is 186, Delly's supposed major post. Attacks cbox for giving up. Agrees with Yos over MoS, but doesn't vote. FoSes Jelly for stating he's town. Thinks Phoebus is strange. Votes Mert for tying two people together (Phoebus and MoS), something with which I personally disagree.

This really isn't a very strong post. I'm seeing attacks, however minor, here on Cbox, MoS, Jelly and Mert. All those are alive, so we can't really say anything solid about it, but I think Cbox and MoS are town.

Next up is a request for an LoE. Apology for falling behind. His last post is a defense against Jelly, explaining his votes for cbox and Mert. I think the vote against Mert there is very poor. The case against Cbox is stronger there, but I don't really like the weight he puts on the tells (as he ignores Cbox's newbishness) and it's fairly 'wagonish.

Delly's overall posting was...insufficient. Not a whole lot to analyze. Has mostly discussed Cbox. The overall vibe I'm getting from his posts are scummy.

Next up is StallingChamp. The beginning here is interesting. As CTD said, he apparently thought PJ made a good decision under the circumstanced, but also didn't think Rosso was a good execution, which is quite the contradiction. A really interesting post is Post 661. It's a very odd post. On one hand, there's the fact that he's voting a scumbuddy here. On the other hand, I really don't know what to think of this post. It could be distancing. Overall, it gives me a good gut feel, but I suggest everyone look at it for themselves. After this, SC flakes and is replaced.

SC only posted one "big" content-post, namely 661. There's an interesting possible link with Jelly to remember. Overall, though, the feeling I get from SC is a lot better than the feeling I got from CDB.

Next up in the replacement train is Olio. He starts off the game with this post, voting pablito, LuckayLuck and Nightson. Now, I think his vote for LuckayLuck is rather weak and based more on Luckay's playstyle than anything else. Nightson because he sees things in 808, things I really don't see. The case for pablito is a bit stronger, but I also don't really see it. Then we get a little debate with pablito over the case, something I find rather insignificant, to be honest. This is a more interesting post, as we finally get off the pablito-argument. His main suspicions are still pablito-Luckay-Nightson, for the same reasons, but now voidybuns and Mossy are thrown into the mix. Voidybuns especially seems a bit fabricated here, very possible distancing. Votes MoS for not responding to his posts, unvotes later when there is response. A wee bit aggressive against Dead Riki (which, I believe, was during Riki's Kingship), which is a bit of a plus. Aggressive against Luckay, semi-prodding him here. I actually rather like this post. I like the questions in there. Follow-up here. A bit of a debate with Yossy afterwards. Thinks Luckay is gambiting with his "Lynch me" attitude. Then asks to be replaced.

Olio started out horribly. I really don't like the way he added Voidy to his scumlist and completely ignored her afterwards. I liked a couple of the posts he made later, which overall gave me a good gut feeling. I'm fifty-fifty on him.

ThAdmiral is the last in line. Votes pablito, Smashy and Fritzler early on, no explanations given. Votes mnowax over an OMGUS-vote and unvotes pablito because "we need him to get discussion". I really do not agree with that kind of argument. If he's valuable, he's just being valuable for the scum, not for the town. Possible link with Der Hammer here. Next post is an LoE-post. I'll quote it for quotey goodness.

MoS: no, mainly because the summary posts were so god-damned helpful.
VitaminR: i don't know. Yes, but I think he deserves a bit of time to state his case.
SV: maybe, leaning towards no. There are better plays at the moment in my opinion.
Smashy: obv yes, as I'm voting for him.

Defense of voidy. Clearly pushing for Smashy. Doesn't mind a mnowax-hammer. This post gives me awful vibes. It's pretty much the first time he even mentions mnowax. Then there's a contentless month. His back post contains three things. He's not against another mnowax-kill, but he wants to give him a day. He wants Thesp to better outline his case against MoS because Thesp seems pretty positive, and he wants me to say who I'm going to execute. I'm seeing quite a link between him and Yos in the following posts, that's not a good thing either. Next post is in response to my LoE, makes for another interesting quote:

I haven't done a full read-through yet, but I seem to remember that zindies play didn't strike me as overly scummy, just...unusual. He has his own style, and thats fine with me.

In my opinion, this looks a wee bit like he's trying to buddy up to me.

My thoughts on the loe:

SV - I wouldn't.

Vit - I've been coming round to this one, but I think...

Fritz - is probably the best option today.

His position on Voidy has become stronger. Where it was "maybe, probably not" when Yos was King, now it has become a flat-out no. Thinks Vitamin is scummy. Coming around seems like an odd choice of words, seeing how I don't think he's mentioned him before. Wants Fritz deaded. However, he's never stated any reasons for wanting Fritz dead, even in his first vote. Sees me as "good king listening to his people", which really says nothing about me. Don't like that. Reason for putting Voidy below were "gut".

Question: ThAdmiral, which posts gave you a good gut feeling?

Votes mnowax, Fritz, Vitamin. Hasn't completed his task.

Well, that's it. The overall gut feeling I got from the role was pretty bad, especially so with ThAdmiral. I'm seeing possible links between the role and Voidybuns, Yossy and Jelly, one of which is proven scum and one of which I believe is scum. Pushes Vitamin/Fritz/Mnowax1/Mnowax2. Overall, he's a pretty good lynch. I don't think I want him today, though.

[RafK]

I largely agree with that analysis of ThAdmiral... I didn't have a scummy feel on his predecessors but have had for him. Tossing up the idea that replacement scum are more likely to gravitate towards agreeing with the ones who've been in longer, and thus a replacement who comes in and moves closer to scum playes than their predesccsor was would be a strong scum sign. ThAdmiral definitely moved closer to SV than his predecessors were, and if Yos comes up scum as well I would regard that as more or less conclusive for ThAdmiral.

The most interesting post for me of ThAdmiral's predescessors is SC voting for Pooky, Fritz and MoS.

[Zindaras]

Well, Phoebus is next, so let's get at it. These are the notes I have on him:

ShadowLurker/Rosso Carne

votes Phoebus and Mert.
Phoebus votes Mert.
PJ FoSes

Glork

for not linking to the discussion at the end of last Kingmaker and for not scumhunting. PJ votes Phoebus for pushing wagons.

Twomz

votes Phoebus.

Spectrumvoid

thinks PJ and

Glork

are town and Phoebus scummy and asks MoS for clarification.
PJ thinks both Yos and MoS are town. (lolrhyming?). PJ also thinks pablito is town, and likes his votes on Phoebus and bird111.
Mert thinks cbox is scummy and PJ shouldn't think he's town because cbox reminds him of someone who was town in KM. Mert thinks Phoebus is scummy and unvotes MoS.

Amelia/LL

votes Phoebus.

Glork

votes Phoebus.
Cbox votes bird and Phoebus.

Rosso Carne

thinks pablito is stupid, PJ is scum and Phoebus is town.
Nightson thinks cbox is town and is suspicious of pablito and Phoebus.

Glork

wants clarification from

spectrumvoid

and Mert why they're voting cbox and Phoebus.
Phoebus has nothing to add.
PJ posts his LoE, containing bird, Phoebus, CDB/SC and pablito. However, he doesn't think pablito is scum.
Cbox unvotes bird and votes pablito. He's not suspicious of CDB, but he is suspicious of Phoebus.
Phoebus doesn't like the tone of pablito's last posts.
MoS says Phoebus is definitely Town.
Yos votes Phoebus for being the one on the LoE he is most suspicious of.
Mert's list of suspicions regarding the LoE is Phoebus-bird-pablito-CDB.
MoS buddies Phoebus.

Thok

thinks MoS and Phoebus aren't scum together.

MBL

says pablito, MoS and Phoebus are acting weird.
PJ will consider Phoebus, bird111 and

Rosso

.
MoS "just wants to see Phoebus live."
PJ posts opinions in Post 516. Puts bird111, pablito, Phoebus,

Rosso

,

spectrumvoid

(not so much), Vaughn/Hammer (same performance as KM) as scum.
PJ executes

Rosso

.
Bird111 is suspicious of Mert, Phoebus and

Twomz

.
Phoebus agrees with the birdwagon.
Bird unvotes Phoebus.
Phoebus votes pablito and Yos.
Yos votes pablito and FoSes Phoebus.

Something which caught my eye was PJ's 516, which means we're going on another digress-tour. In the vote count in Post 420, the only one who was voting voidybuns was Timmy, our dead Kingmaker. I had her pegged as scum at that point. I also found an interesting little list here:

People I Will Not Execute

Thok
Glork

Mastermind of Sin
Fritzler

MrBuddyLee

Cardb0ardb0x
Pablito

People I Do Not Strongly Consider for Execution

AmeliaSlay

ChannelDelibird

CrashTextDummie

Dead Rikimaru
Machiavellian-Mafia
Mert
Nightson

PookytheMagicalBear
spectrumvoid

Twomz
UberTimmy

Vaughn
Yosarian2

People I Strongly Consider for Execution
Phoebus
Bird1111

Rosso Carne

I don't really like this list, here. Definitely something to remember.

The addition of voidy in Post 516 isn't scummy. PJ makes a total reread and says voidy is scummy based on that. As far as I can see, there's no external pressure.


Anyway, back to Phoebus. Phoebus starts the game by voting MBL, pablito and cbox, also stating that he will play by gut and probably not building cases. Adds a vote on Mert, calls Mert out for an apparent OMGUS-vote (found here). Denies bandwagoning. Votes bird, pablito and Yos. Pushes bird. There is an interesting debate with Yossy here. That might require some closer scrutiny. Wants to get the Day over with and a bird-execution.

Well, that's it as far as Phoebus goes. My gut feeling on him is actually pretty good. There's the interaction between him and Yos that makes me feel better about him. He prodded voidy as well once, though I figure that's not too big of a thing.

Phoebus is repaced by DoS. Let's see what he makes of it. His first little bit of input is Post 1401. He votes CTD, LL and MoS. He mostly depends on the reasoning of others here, something I dislike a lot. Especially the reasons for LL are

very

tangential. I mean, if you agree with reasons stated throughout the thread, then you should quote them and point out which ones you agree with. Goes along with the attempts to start a revolt against Riki.

Well, that's pretty much it as far as DoS goes. No real content past that. To be honest, his original post gave off a lot of bad vibes, and he hasn't done anything to make up for that (or, well, anything at all, to be honest). The Riki thing gives him some minor pro-town points.

Ah, and now for the most interesting of this little group, Vitty. Going through his (reasonless) posts:
-Dead Riki scummy.
-PJ and SV scum. MoS and Pablito town.
-One of RafK/Scope scum.
-Fritz suspicious.
-Zindie pro-town.

His next post summarizes his feelings. Isn't certain about Jelly-scum anymore, a change of opinion which makes me feel better about him, actually. Also changes his mind on Fritz. Votes RafK, Scope and Voidy, wants Voidy executed. Rates pablito pro-town again later. Thinks Shanba's town. Calls out Yos for ignoring Voidy. Yeah, that one's definitely a plus. Here is a nice post where he outlines his reasons for finding Voidy scummy. Response to Jelly's case in the next few posts. Doesn't want mnowax, wants Voidy. Next day, he votes voidy and FoSes Yos. Next post, more opinions: Doesn't trust PJ, thinks pabs-Thesp is town, thinks MoS is town, has mostly found Scope's predecessor scummy, not Scope himself, still thinks one of RafK-Scope is scum, thinks Fritz is pro-town. Gets in an argument with PJ. Provides his analysis on RafK and Fritz. Nothing particularly interesting there. Votes Mnowax and Toaster Strudel. Interesting post there, not sure if I like it.

I'd really like Jelly to re-analyze Vitamin's posting here. Vitamin was pushing pretty hard for a Voidy-execution. I'd go as far as to say that if Yossy is scum, Vitamin is almost assuredly town. If not, he'd be pushing his buddy to execute another buddy, a move which would be very unorthodox, especially considering that Yos didn't execute Voidy in the end. I'll be honest and say that the main reason I'm getting town vibes from him are his posts regarding voidy.


Of the two, I'd most definitely prefer a ThAdmiral lynch. I know I had Vitamin on my LoE, but I'm happy I didn't execute him. I would put Vitamin more in the neutral part right now.

[Cavane]

The case of DR/Smashy/BM/mnowax2.

DR didn't have a lot to say early on. He focused heavily on pablito (Thesp) for reasoning I thought was pretty weak. This doesn't help his case, since I consider Thesp to be pretty town. He pretty much spent the rest of the game as King telling people to post top 3, followed by the massive fluff post before vanishing. Leaning slightly toward scum at this point.

Smashy takes over. In his first post he says:

Seeing as I'm going through a 65 page game with plenty of replacements and all those issues with the crash, I appreciate all the help I can get.

Not saying I'm just going to blindly follow the town, though.

Bolding added. I really don't like that remark. It makes me think he's setting himself up to go against the town, if necessary.

He executes Luckay over SV, not good, and that's it from Smashy. Looking scummier now.

BM takes over. Doesn't do much for his short stint. Defends SV weakly, defends mnowax1 and attacks MoS. IMO, these are non-telling. The strongest things he said were attacks on MoS, who I'm not currently sure about.

Finally, mnowax2.

Defends SV... I'm seeing a running theme here. Couple posts later (which took place over a week's time, admittedly) switches gears and supports an SV execution. Changing to bus mode? Bunch of useless stuff follows, up to his assignment post.

I'll do my next subject, K-scope soon, but I have to say he's going to have to look pretty bad for me to pick him over these folks. And, apologies for taking so long with this.

[Yosarian2]

I'd go as far as to say that if Yossy is scum, Vitamin is almost assuredly town.

Of course, I'm not scum. You all should really stop basing all your arguments on Yos being scum here.

But yeah, I do agree that Vitiman looks a lot less suspcicous in general then his predecessor did. The fact that he was right about SV is definatly a point in his favor, and I like the way he made his arguments about SV.

[Lowell]

I like Zindy and Cavane's posts.

*blood lust stirring*

vote mnowax, phoebus

1) phoebus- I can see putting scumpals in the "not sure about" category. "Innocent" category too obvious were he to die, "guilty" category runs the risk of being commited to killing them.

2) mnowax- I like what cavane pointed out about his sudden shift in direction regarding SV yesterday.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Ugh... I still need to do my PJ analysis, but he, just as Yos, are just so damn large posters... Hate them and love them at the same time...

I'll hope I'll manage to take some time for it, probably monday.

[Zindaras]

I'd go as far as to say that if Yossy is scum, Vitamin is almost assuredly town.

Of course, I'm not scum. You all should really stop basing all your arguments on Yos being scum here.

You are right. However, I want to execute

you

first.

The general thing you're getting at here is the following statement:

"If A is scum, then B must be scum as well. Therefore, we should lynch B."

However, I'm saying that we should lynch A first, then draw conclusions about B. My opinion on Vitty was required, and my conclusion depends on your alignment.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Petroleumjelly

Day 1:

- Votes MrBuddylee (act scummy so he doesn't get NK'd), Vaughn (random voting/buddyglork) and Bird1111 (protecting Glork). Casts suspicion on Pabs (proglork)
- Unvotes MBL after defense of him, then votes CBB
- Unvotes CBB for "giving up", unvotes Vaughn for misinterpetation
- FoSes Glork for trying to make PJ care to much about the original game (??)
- Votes Phoebus for joining the big bandwagons
- States he has town feelings against Mos/Yos2. Also against Pabs.
- LOE: Bird, Phoebus, CDB (under the radar), Pabs (only because there are 8 votes on him)
- States preferation about Bird/Phoebus execution.
- Rosso suddenly pops up in the "suspicious" list for no specific reason given by PJ, later states the reason "attacking him for PJ being PJ"
- PJ executes Rosso.

Thoughts so far: I'm really not happy with his sudden switch on thoughts. He stated only once what he found suspicious about Rosso and he immediatly executed him. Bad play or scum... leaning to scum atm.

Day 2

- Deleted stuff. Unable to read that part.
- Votes Pooky for "continues sarcastic remarks" and twomz attack.
- Revotes Bird, Votes Ubertimmy for lurking
- States Bird suspicions in a weird way. It almost seems like he's trying to back off.
- Defense against MBL
- Flashbacks alot towards the original game
- Thoughts on LOE: No: MBL, Mert, Yos2. Maybe: Pooky
- Votes SV. Reasons are quite unclear to me (gut).
- Defense against CTD.

Thoughts so far: I find it

very

convenient PJ suspected SV on gut, just when he turned up scum later. I don't like this at all. Overall play of the rest of the day seems ok. Still leaning towards scum.

Day 3

- Votes SV.
- Votes Phoebus, same reason as before. Votes Samus for Twomz's "pushing for LoE"
- Unvotes Samus after Glorks defense for Samus.
- Analysis of Pooky. Conclusion: Pabs and MBL town.
- Mixed feelings on Glork.
- Votes Der Hammer for lurking.
- Votes LL for weak voting, buddying up with Glork.
- FoS MoS for weak logic
- Votes Rikku. Reason seems obvious
- Unvotes LL for good vibes.

Thoughts so far: So far, PJ has bassicly casted suspicion on anyone who has been trying to "buddy up" with Glork, which I find pretty remarkable. I'm still leaning towards scum, only slightly less.

Day 4

- Thoughts on LoE: No: MoS. Yes: VitaminR, SV. Neutral: Smashy
- Reads MoS: still leaning towards town.
- Reads VitaminR: Decent execution
- Reads Spectrumvoid: Scummy
- Reads Battle Mage: Could be scum.
- Reads Mnowax: Decent execution.

Thoughts so far: I'm getting better vibes now. He finally explains a little better on his SV thoughts, and his analysis are ok, although I think alot of them come out as "could be executed". Currently neutral with slight scumfeelings.

Day 5

- Votes SV, Mnowax, VitaminR
- Reads Zindaras: probably town.
- Discussion with Vitty because of analysis on him

Thoughts so far: short day, same feelings: Neutral.

Day 6

- Comes up with the reading idea.
- Reads Thesp: probably town.
- Reads Lowell: probably town.
- Wait.... that's it? I'm done? Yarrrr!!!

Thoughts in general: I've had and still have mixed feelings about PJ. PJ has been on SV in a weird way whole game. I'm still torn if it was luck or bussing. All in all, I don't think he would be the play today (not that he's capable of getting hammered )

Soo.... if I had to choose between Yos2 and PJ, Yos2 would die.

That's all, Kthxbai

[VitaminR]

I'd like to know where PJ stands at this point.

[Thok]

I have reason to believe that PJ is still returning from Thespival. He may be back tonight.

[Thesp]

My apologies for my absence here - I just want to get a quick word in saying I'm back after Thespival. I'll catch up tomorrow.

And I can confirm - PJ is on a plane back home right now. He's landing late tonight.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I finally got back from Thespival...12-hour train ride -_-

[Toaster Strudel]

I'll be leaving out of town on Saturday, limited access is foreseen for a period of 2.5 weeks.

I don't have night choices so everything is under control.

[RafK]

I don't have night choices so everything is under control.

Is it wrong to say that I find this post a bit scummy? Seems to be trying to get some townie mileage out of his departure by saying he doesn't have a night choice, while also giving away that he's not Kingmaker (which a townie should not have done at this stage, IMO, certainly not so casually).

At any rate, if he's still with us in 2.5 weeks and I'm still here to ask, I'll ask him about it then.

[Thesp]

I don't have night choices so everything is under control.

Is it wrong to say that I find this post a bit scummy? Seems to be trying to get some townie mileage out of his departure by saying he doesn't have a night choice, while also giving away that he's not Kingmaker (which a townie should not have done at this stage, IMO, certainly not so casually).

At any rate, if he's still with us in 2.5 weeks and I'm still here to ask, I'll ask him about it then.

Actually, I thought it was far more likely to come from a pro-town player. And it was hysterical. And I don't like your kingmaker speculation.

[Thesp]

I forgot to add:

FOS: RafK.