California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Dragon Phoenix]

/what Mgm said.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Ah, the game has finally started. I don't like the random vote generator tags anyway, so I will join an old-fashioned band wagon to try to get information as quickly as possible. And I hope that participation here will be better than in Loudmouthlee's mini, where 3-4 townies got modkilled. The new gimmick of more votes as sprae looks fun, but I'll save that for another post. Anyway:

Vote Skruffs

[Dragon Phoenix]

Dragon Pheonix

Who's that?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Dragon Phoenix - What kind of information are you looking for from me? Was that an ask to claim?

I am looking for information in general, not from you specifically. Whether you claim or not is your decision, I am not pushing for it (I usually do not claim myself even at lynch -1, unless I have a power role or unless I am scum simulating a power role). There is a lot we can learn on days to come on how bandwagons are formed and pushed forward or not, and reactions of other players as well as the bandwagonee.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Analysis upto and including post 111:

Adele: just posted her first real posts. Not enough to get any read on. Neutral.

Cogito Ergo Sum: no substance yet. Good "defence" on not using alternate votes (Concordet) yet. Neutral.

Cubsfan4ever: "What the...? Why does Skruffs have four vote?" That's all. At this rate he will not survive long. Gives off a scum smell if Skruffs turns out to be innocent. IGMEOY.

foolinc: one long post which gives a lot of information for anyone who is looking for a fake claim. Not helpful, but only slightly scummy.

IH: Suspiciously playing the game as Dragon Phoenix.

jeep: very little substance so far. Throws up some suspicion on non-Concordet voters, which I don't agree with. Slight suspicion.

logicticus: reasonable contribution so far, but his not voting is in my book a small scum tell. Slight suspicion.

LoudmouthLee: fittingly, one of the loudest players so far. I don't associate that with scum usually. Probably town.

Mastermind of Sin: a rather complicated way to do a random vote and fit the posting rule. Then nothing. Smells scummy.

Mgm: a lot of short posts, not much substance. Got defensive early on for appearing on Concordet votes. Too experienced to mark that down as a scum tell. Neutral.

Oman: not much to go on. Picks me for puttng on the 7th vote (why the one who votes 7th?). And can't spell. Apart from that, neutral.

PlaysWithSquirrels: picks me with at least some reasoning (Apparently my first words are a minor scum tell in his book). Not much to go on yet. Neutral.

PookyTheMagicalBear: Pooky is being pooky. No read yet.

Skruffs: I hopped on the bandwagon the moment I saw it (as you do on day one), but going back through the game I am actually quite happy that he is the front runner. Likely scum.

Talitha: postponed any contribution until later.

Thesp: absent.

Thestatusquo: absent.

VitaminR: made a positive contribution to the game in post 74, picking Scrubbs apart. Likely townie.

xyzzy: absent.

Zindaras: don't know what to make of him. Inconsequential posting, attacked Scrubbs vehemently onyl to drop him the moment the wagon gets underway, to switch to LML on gut. Hm. IGMEOY.

Player list corrected in post 3. Was using an old copy of the list. Oops. - Mod

[Dragon Phoenix]

See my comment on VitaminR.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Throws up some suspicion on non-Concordet voters, which I don't agree with.

Why don't you agree? I don't understand why any pro-town role would not use a list. The only reason for not using a list is because you are scum and haven't had time to work out with your scum buddies what is the right way to use it to your advantage.

Even if you don't provide a list, you're just saying: I'd be equally happy to lynch anyone.

vote: MGM

, PlaysWithSquirrels, LoudMouthLee, Dragon Phoenix, Skruffs

-JEEP

Nope. I do not see the point in putting down Concordet votes this early. I will do so later "today" when it becomes meaningful. That does not mean that I can't do it because I did not discuss with my assumed scum buddies, and it does not mean that I am willing to lynch anyone. If something is not white it does not mean it is black.

Your scummyness has gone up a notch with this post.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I agree with Mgm. I have for instance posted my feelings about all players so far, and in my opinion that is a lot more valuable than posting vote X, Y, S, Q, R. There is nothing wrong with using that voting method already now, but Jeep's trying to continue to link not using the method to being scum is raising another eyebrow with me. And that's my third one already, so you put me in a bit of a fix.

[Dragon Phoenix]

The only reason I can see for NOT using a list in your vote is if you are scum and haven't yet figured out how you plan to make your list so that it reduces your risk while not tipping your hand.

Don't back peddle. That is clearly stating:

not using a list = scum

There is nothing here about discouraging others to use a list.

In fact, I am upgrading you now to suspect #1:

Unvote Skruffs
Vote jeep

[Dragon Phoenix]

Dragon Phoenix:
Summary: DP has been getting some slack in this game for being the 7th vote for me. He hops off me with some scum hunting on jeep, gets acknowledgment for it, and then hops back on me. Does that validate the earlier actions? I hope not. Scum can act town for short periods of time, but in the end, they want mislynches.

Dragon Phoenix - What kind of

information are you looking for from me? Was that an ask to claim?

I am looking for information in general, not from you specifically. Whether you claim or not is your decision, I am not pushing for it (I usually do not claim myself even at lynch -1, unless I have a power role or unless I am scum simulating a power role). There is a ot we can learn on days to come on how bandwagons are formed and pushed forward
or not, and reactions of other players as well as the and wagonee.

If you want 'information', but aren't actually asking for information, I am confused abuot my role in this, except as bandwagonee. You want yoru vote to be on me so that... later on... people can look back and see that you were voting me? I am confused. Are you scum pretending to be distancing from me? If you are looking for reactions, maybe you should try offering theories.

I can't believe you have been two years on this site and do not know the function of a bandwagon. It is not just about the reactions of the bandwagonee, but also the other players. Who joins, who does not. What are their reasons to join or not. That is information.

Interestingly, when MGM asks why DP feels MORE that I am scum now than when he

first put on the bandwagon vote, he refers to VitaminR's annotation.
"VitaminR: made a positive contribution to the game in post 74, picking Scrubbs apart.

Likely townie."
So.
To put this in perspective, I am likely scum, because VitaminR attacked me. And VitaminR is likely town, because he attacked me. I am assuming Dragon Phoenix decided I was the more likely scum beign attacked by a townie versus the opposite because I already had 6 votes on me, versus VitaminR's... one? zero?
interesting.

No, you are not likely scum because VitaminR attacked you. but because of the reasons expressed by VitaminR in his post. I did not know I had to cross the eyes and dot the teeth this much to get my meaning across.

Another interseting thing: He puts all his bets on me being scum, BUT, he leaves an out for if I am town: Cubsfan, who had (At that time) made one post asking why I had four votes. So if I did get lynched and turned up town (which he states as "If he turns up town" not "if he gets lynched and turns up town", which suggests that DP has already concluded I *will* be lynched) he has an easy person to go after the next day. Why?

Because, apparently, Cubs knew I would turn up town and thus was acting townie? Couldn't that be taken a step further, and thus the corollary that DP also knows I will turn up town (or, barring that, at least non-mafia) and is laying the grounds for a push the next day on a person that has not yet contributed? After all, DP has already taken for granted that I will show up as something. Just thoughts.

Since when do I put all my bets on you being scum? I stated I was happy with my choice a that time, that is something entirely different. Of course, if you would be lynched today, there is still a reasonable chance you are a townie, in which case I found Cubs'reaction to the wagon so far the most suspicious (see also getting information from a bandwagon). Mafia can try to look innocent by acting against a bandwagon of someone they know to be innocent.

Also interesting, Oman and Jeep both get scummier the more they question DP's authority.

His later note on Jeep is very interesting and goes against my collected data on him. As well as everyone else's. I like how he took a break, 'dug' at jeep, got accolades for it, adn then went back to me. Now people are saying "Well look what he did to jeep" (even if it was misguided), which by default makes it look like he was doing the same thing to me. He wasn't. I don't remember him 'digging' when he put the seventh vote on me, and I don't remember him 'digging' when he said that if I was scum one person would look bad and if I was town another would look bad.

You seem to post under the delusion that anyone should focus on one target. You should prod here and there based on what you see. I do not like your posts, so you are still high on my radar screen. I also do not like Jeep's posts, and the discussion we had around it moved him ahead of you in my scumminess list.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I will update my analysis this weekend. Most likely that will involve a vote switch, as the chances of jeep getting lynched day one are astronomously small anyway. I think it is also time now to start using the Condorcet thingy, so I will make my version of The List (TM). Stay tuned.

On a side note, it turns out to be difficult so far to find a temporary replacement.

Request to the mod: could the players have one pre-announced grace period in which they are allowed not to post for say 100 hours during the game?

Tags removed. Please use bold tags only for voting and unvoting.

Please see the Post Content section of the rules regarding asking questions of the Mod. - Mod

[Dragon Phoenix]

For the coming long weekend I should be OK by the way, since we decided to drive back Saturday night. I will be able to post Thursdaymorning around 9AM CET and then Sundaymorning just before 9AM (I'll set the alarm clock...). For the October one, which will last longer, we'll see.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Is it just me who can't get on scum? The site has refused to load all day.

FYI

[Dragon Phoenix]

Analysis 112-229

Adele: waiting for more contribution this weekend. So far, slight townie vibe.

Cogito Ergo Sum: tends to post relatively short contributions for this game. So far, slight townie vibe, but would like to see more discussion about other players.

Cubsfan4ever: Few posts and short - consisting of nothing more than some defence of Skruffs. I maintain that he gives off a scum smell if Skruffs turns out to be innocent. Even worse, with his lack of contribution he is already giving off a scum smell now. IGMEOY, likely scum.

foolinc: gave a helpful analysis of all players from his point of view. Tend to think of him as town for the time being

jeep: I am still uncomfortable with the way he backpeddled (I'm still maintaining he did) about eh Condorcet issues. In general, I think his contribution has been sub par - what has he done except these discussions? Maintain him as high in my list of probable scum.

logicticus: prodding, attacking with quotes, like I would expect a townie to behave. Upgarded to likely townie.

LoudmouthLee: [fittingly, one of the loudest players so far. I don't associate that with scum usually. Probably town.] previous comment still stands in principle, but my gut starts to worry. Less likely to be town than before, but not clearly scummy.

Mastermind of Sin: [a rather complicated way to do a random vote and fit the posting rule. Then nothing. Smells scummy.] since then we have had little else than defence on his random method. Upgraded to scummy.

Mgm: a lot of (short) posts, also because he got attacked several times. I don;t see his actions as scummy so far, and don;t get a scum vibe. Also not a town vibe though. Neutral.

Oman: since my previous analysis mainly discussing with Skruffs. Comes over as neutral to me.

PlaysWithSquirrels: contributes little, and gives the impression to try to stay under the radar whilst keeping to the rules. Upgraded to scummy.

PookyTheMagicalBear: Pooky is still being pooky. I always have problems reading him. Neutral for the time being.

Skruffs: his defences so far have not really convinced me. Still noted down as likely scum.

Talitha: little contributions but accessibility problems. Need to see more of her. For the time being neutral.

Thesp: posted a good analysis to make up for earlier absence. Gives off town vibes for the time being.

Thestatusquo: virtually absent (a confirm and a non content post). Could be scum trying to stay under the radar, but then does not do a very convincing job. Scummy for the time being, but more contributions are required.

VitaminR: made a positive contribution to the game in post 74, picking Scrubbs apart. Likely townie, even if he votes for me. Pretty strong town vibes.

xyzzy: funded attack on Mgm is his main contribution so far. Neutral.

Zindaras: [don't know what to make of him. Inconsequential posting, attacked Scrubbs vehemently onyl to drop him the moment the wagon gets underway, to switch to LML on gut. Hm. IGMEOY. ] His more recent posts taste town to me.

So we have:
Scummy: Cubsfan4ever, jeep, Mastermind of Sin, PlaysWithSquirrels, Skruffs, Thestatusquo
Neutral: LoudmouthLee, Mgm, Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy
Townish: Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras

I will unvote jeep, mainly because I don;t think we can get a majority on him anyway. I go back to Skruffs, and wtill do the condorcet thingy (I am putting myself ahead of no lynch for reasons that I will explain if someone wants to - it is not an error):

Unvote jeep

Vote Skruffs

, jeep, [Cubsfan4ever, Mastermind of Sin, PlaysWithSquirrels, Thestatusquo], [LoudmouthLee, Mgm, Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], Dragon Phoenix, No lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Nope. I am not a confirmed innocent, therefore if I get lynched (and you find out I'm town), the town gets information from discussions and voting patterns. If we have no lynch we have no information.

And knowing mith, the chances of there being a jester in the pool are astronomically small.

[Dragon Phoenix]

DP, no offense meant, but you are still stuck on page five.

Cubsfan4ever: Few posts and short - consisting of nothing more than some defence of Skruffs. I maintain that he gives off a scum smell if Skruffs turns out to be innocent. Even worse, with his lack of contribution he is already giving off a scum smell now. IGMEOY, likely scum

Skruffs: his defences so far have not really convinced me. Still noted down as likely scum.

You are voting me, and if I come up innocent, Cubs is very likely scum. But you didn't address, what if I come up scum, as you seem to be so sure I am (based on your votes)? Does that make cubs likely innocent? It's not hard for me to theorize that you only did one half of the equation because you already

know I'm not scum

. Error of omission.

If something is black it is not white. If it is not black it is not automatically white. If you are innocent after all, I think Cubs is probably scum (by now I think he is probably scum anyway). Should you be guilty, there is no reason why Cubs should be innocent. He could even be of a second family.

I am not addressing the rest of your post now because I don't have time. I also don't think it will be very helpful to do so now.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Obligatory twentyfive plus word post to satisfy the requirements. I will post once more on Thursday morning before our weekend starts. With jeep gone (good luck in real life), I might switch to his successor, but I'll give him/her a chance first.

To Skruffs: yes, there might be a second mafia family. That is not unheard of in a 20 player game. I would even bet either two families or one family and a SK.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Are you trying to play the dim card Skruffs?

1. jeep clearly went out for family reasons - what are you trying to reach by casting doubt on his motives? jeep backing out because he is under pressure??

2. Reading the rules is a clear prerequisite for this game. The deadline has been announced since day one.

3. Congratulations on the astute observation that if I mention a second family, that this implies that there is a first. Excellent. If you think my next comment you refer to (about there also being a possibility of one family and a SK) is backpedalling, then you don't understand the meaning of that word.

I would be happy with a Skruffs, battlemage(jeep) or Cubs lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Last post before we leave for Hamburg. Not much of substance has happened recently, and BattleMage has done nothing to take away my suspicion from jeep.

Two remarks @skruffs:
1. I never said you were stupid. There is a clear difference to saying "you are stupid" and "are you trying to play the dim card" because the latter implies that you are not stupid but just acting that way to try to gain an advantage.

2. Do not mis represent what I said ("DP says that there are two families.") - I never said that. Another scum tell.

That said, with the town's natural reluctance to lynch jeep out of the way, I am going back to (sorry, don't have time to check who replaced whom):

Unvote Skruffs

Vote Batlle Mage/jeep

, Skruffs, [Cubsfan4ever, Mastermind of Sin, PlaysWithSquirrels, Thestatusquo], [LoudmouthLee, Mgm, Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], Dragon Phoenix, No lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Bambi took a bit more time, so I have time to squeeze in another 25 posts or more contribution, which will allow me to sleep a bit later coming Sunday. Bye all.

[Dragon Phoenix]

We got back a bit early due to the weather, so I can quickly get in a 25 words or more post to fulfil the requirements, sleep late tomorrow and still be in time to do a final analysis of day one with the deadline looming. Ta.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Alright, this will have to do for me until the deadline strikes. I have seen nothing in the last few days that moved me away from my main choices as scum candidates. I will therefore not change my vote, nor my condorcet ranking.

Two posts that begged reaction.

What?!?!? Scum will only do pro-scum stuff that they don't realize is pro-scum. If they do stuff that they think is pro-scum, they are stupid. This has got to be the most backwards thing I've read in a LONG time.

If this were true, there'd be no way to differentiate between townies and scum when it comes to scummy actions as both would have to be unaware of the (pro-scum) consequences of their scummy actions.

ROFL.
When I read Jeep's bit, I agreed: scum don't do stuff that makes them look scummy on purpose, duuuh.
When I read CES's bit, I agreed: scum do do stuff that'll help them achieve their WC, duuuh.
Have I adequately summarised your positions? I think that might be a disagreement caused by confusion over the meaning of "pro-scum".


-and now for something completely different-

I don't like MGM's attitude about the two families thing, which is basically saying that DP was in the right in stating that there are two families in a game like that.

I still stand by what I said earlier today. Show me the proof and quote the post in which he said it.

I've been looking over the DP's posts. Does he state explicitly that he knows there are definately two families? No. If he were, we wouldn't be here. He'd be claiming or under near-lynch bandwagon or in a very tentative spot indeed.

What has he said, then?

The following are from DP's 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th posts.

DP, no offense meant, but you are still stuck on page five.

Cubsfan4ever: Few posts and short - consisting of nothing more than some defence of Skruffs. I maintain that he gives off a scum smell if Skruffs turns out to be innocent. Even worse, with his lack of contribution he is already giving off a scum smell now. IGMEOY, likely scum

Skruffs: his defences so far have not really convinced me. Still noted down as likely scum.

You are voting me, and if I come up innocent, Cubs is very likely scum. But you didn't address, what if I come up scum, as you seem to be so sure I am (based on your votes)? Does that make cubs likely innocent? It's not hard for me to theorize that you only did one half of the equation because you already know I'm not scum. Error of omission.

If something is black it is not white. If it is not black it is not automatically white. If you are innocent after all, I think Cubs is probably scum (by now I think he is probably scum anyway). Should you be guilty, there is no reason why Cubs should be innocent. He could even be of a second family.

Here he appears to be saying that he thinks that Cubs is "probably" scum and Skruffs is "likely" scum, but he doesn't think they are scum together - then he raises the possibility of a second family (

that

is what originally caught Skruff's attention). Although he says "even" (which to me looks scummy in itself), the scenario he presents offers a very likely chance of multiple families; I would say probable, even.

To Skruffs: yes, there might be a second mafia family. That is not unheard of in a 20 player game. I would even bet either two families or one family and a SK.

He'd

bet

that there's not just one family, and I agree that the SK seems like an afterthought, where it usually would be the first suggestion in post 16 above, not second after a seperate family.

3. Congratulations on the astute observation that if I mention a second family, that this implies that there is a first. Excellent. If you think my next comment you refer to (about there also being a possibility of one family and a SK) is backpedalling, then you don't understand the meaning of that word.

Please pay close attention to the wording here - this is a subtle point, a freudian slip. "If I mention a second family, this implies that there

is

a first" - as if he's talking

not

about how things

might be

, but

how they are

.

2. Do not mis represent what I said ("DP says that there are two families.") - I never said that. Another scum tell.

the portion that DP quotes here is way out of context. Skruffs acknowledges that he's not been so overt before and after that sentence, which I think was just a minor slip. It's as if he's looking for anything he can contradict - why's he going after the weakest part of the argument, instead of rebutting the point? All of his defenses centre around the fact that multiple families

do

exist and that he didn't say that there definately was one - he completely fails to deal with the issue of the

plausibility

of him bringing multiple families up without knowledge that the uninformed majority doesn't have.

I've convinced myself. It was the "if I mention a second family, this implies that there is a first" that did it. I'm with Skruffs.

vote: Dragon Phoenix

I don't even know where to start to go against this reasoning. Since the whole second family thing keeps coming up again an again, once more where it came from:

Skruffs stated "You are voting me, and if I come up innocent, Cubs is very likely scum. But you didn't address, what if I come up scum, as you seem to be so sure I am (based on your votes)? Does that make cubs likely innocent?". My answer was no, because he might be scum as well, but from a different family. I never stated there actually are two families, even though Skruffs later claimed I did. I gave a general answer to a general question about mafia tactics. That's all. Feel free to continue to see it as evidence of my "guilt", but you are barking up the wrong tree.

DP: Could you

PLEASE

explain Post 122? Do you think there is an advantage to

NOT

using Concordet voting? Do you think that scum are more likely to use (and/or advocate the use of) Concordet voting (and if so, why)?
I am simply not seing your stanc here at all. I agree completely with Jeep's take, and I'd really like you to explain why protown players should find not-using-Concordet preferrable to using-Concordet.

Not for the first time in this game, I am being misquoted or misinterpreted. I never stated or hinted that protown players should find not-using-Concordet preferable to using-Concordet. I never stated that using it would be scummy. I argued against the opposite stance: that not-using-Concordet is a scum tell (see jeep's posts: his opinion is that the only reason not to use it is if you are scum). I am perfectly happy with someone using this method straight from post 1 but I don't think there is any meaning behind a Condorcet list unless you have a reasonable opinion on a number of players, hence my preference to wait until the mid of day one.

No change in vote or list.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Pierre Picaud was a shoemaker who was living in Paris in 1807. Picaud was engaged to marry a rich woman, but four jealous friends falsely accused him of being a spy for England. He was imprisoned for seven years. During his imprisonment a dying fellow prisoner bequeathed him a treasure hidden in Milan. When Picaud was released in 1814, he took possession of the treasure, returned under another name to Paris and spent ten years plotting his successful revenge against his former friends. His life was used as the basis of The Count of Monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas, père.

OK, sounds plausible, although I don't like the vibes I got from either jeep or BM. But lynching a claimed coppish role can't be the right play day one. Back to Skruffs, and upgrading Cubs a notch towards more scummy.

Unvote Batlle Mage

Vote Skruffs

, Cubsfan4ever [Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels, Tamuz/Thestatusquo], [LoudmouthLee, Mgm, IH/Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], Battle Mage/jeepDragon Phoenix, No lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

In the last line there should be a comma between BM and myself obviously.

[Dragon Phoenix]

For some reason Skruffs is not popular as a lynch candidate - beats me why, as I think he is scummy like hell. I will move on to the other major scum suspect in my books [Cubs] because I certainly do not want LML lynched after this very believable claim.

Unvote Skruffs

Vote Cubsfan4ever

, Skruffs [Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels, Tamuz/Thestatusquo], [Mgm, IH/Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LoudmouthLee, Battle Mage/jeep, Dragon Phoenix, No lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, I missed quite some action apparently, including either a day kill or a delayed night action. I need to re-read the thread with all the information that we got since day one.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I am a bit swamped at the moment, both at work and at home. I will try to find more time later this week, and until then post the obligatory 25 word count thingies to ensure that I am not taken out of the game.

[Dragon Phoenix]

More detailed analysis to follow within 24 hours from this post. I just want to make sure that I do not get replaced before I have the chance to do so.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, this has to do for analysis for now, focusing on day two.

Adele: little to go on.

Cogito Ergo Sum: post 642 ruffles my feathers in many ways. Possibly scum.

Dani Banani, replacing Mastermind of Sin D1: post 666 (!) is as scummy as they come. Building trust with two players and suggesting a play for the day without any motivation. Post 739 does not sit well with me either. Why on earth bring up the secret word thing as townie - when for all you know [if you are a townie] that scum do not have secret words? Likely scum.

foolinc: I really do not like post 638. Possibly scum.

Gaspar, replacing PlaysWithSquirrels D1. Don't get any scum vibes. Neutral.

IH, replacing Oman D1: I like post657, even though I do not like what he wrote about me (you want me to give quotes for parts where uyou think you remember something?). Subsequent posts too. Likely town.

logicticus: I like post 692, well-reasoned, even though I don't fully agree with the final outcome of his analysis. Smells town.

LoudmouthLee: looks town to me, except for post 655. He could be a SK himself based on that. Incidentally, I do not agree that a SK should try to kill scum in the early stages oof this game (a lesson IS has told me): there are still too many townies around, so killing by mafia is good for the SK (unless he is the vistim of course).

Mgm: attracting a lot of attention, not always spot on in his reactions, but I still can't find much scumminess in his posts. Typical Mgm play. Likely town. That is until post 659. This smacks to me of scum breadcrumbing a safe claim. Upgraded to likely scum. Also the claim came way to soon for my taste.

PookyTheMagicalBear: I know he hates this remark, but I still can't get a read on him. That is generic with him though and has nothing to do with this game.

Skruffs: his comment (626) that he was blocked suggest "town" to me. This is a dangerous gambit to try to pull as scum, because if there is no role blocker (or if there is one that denies the action) he's screwed. Upgraded to likely town.

Talitha: do not like post 685. You cannot keep repeating that you can't get a read on players - sounds very non-committing and scummy to me. Likely scum.

Tamuz, replacing Thestatusquo D1: too focused on Skruffs to my taste. Not sure whether to read that as a scum sign or not.

Thesp: I like post 679. Likely townie. I don't believe a briefly suggested masonhood fof him and Skruffs.

VitaminR: sensible, most likely town.

Zindaras: I like post 689. Likely town.

In general, I like posts in which players examine a lot of others in more detail, because for scum this is far more difficult to do than for town.

Now, this analysis was done without looking back at yesterday's notes. Checking now just for fun, yesterday I had:
Cubsfan4ever, Skruffs [Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels, Tamuz/Thestatusquo], [Mgm, IH/Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LoudmouthLee, Battle Mage/jeep, Dragon Phoenix, No lynch.

Vote Dani Banani

, Mgm, Talitha, [Cogito Ergo Sum, Foolinc], [Adele, Gaspar, Pooky, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Skruffs, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LML, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Talitha: do not like post 685. You cannot keep repeating that you can't get a read on players - sounds very non-committing and scummy to me. Likely scum.

1. I have NOT repeated it. I mentioned once. I did NOT say "can't", I said it was difficult. I feel like I'm channelling Skruffs from day 1 here but if you are sincere in trying to catch scum, PLEASE get your facts right and make your comments accurate.

2. Your accusation doesn't make much sense because in the post you talk about I DO commit, make a vote, and give a reason.

3. The 'having a hard time getting a read' was

part of the reason for my vote

and therefore had to be said!!

4. The 'offending' comment of mine was partially due to how I felt about being wrong about cubsfan. You (DP) were also wrong about him, in fact you referred to him also as "likely scum" in post 231. This is interesting to me, because I think that of everyone in the game, DP should have been able to relate to what I said. He gets a

FOS

, for now.

I went back through your posts, and I stand corrected. Apologies. IGMEOY still, but you are moving down my list.

Unvote

Vote Dani Banani

, Mgm, [Cogito Ergo Sum, Foolinc], [Adele, Gaspar, Pooky, Talitha, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Skruffs, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LML, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Skruffs: his comment (626) that he was blocked suggest "town" to me. This is a dangerous gambit to try to pull as scum, because if there is no role blocker (or if there is one that denies the action) he's screwed.

While I agree he's slightly more likely to be town (as scum don't do this

often

), it's not a gambit if he

is

a mafia roleblocker. (I've seen this used to great effect by someone who later claimed cop in a game - it even gave him one less investigation to fake.)

Ummm... I think this would only work if Skruffs is mafia and the mafia has a role blocker (not Skruffs) - otherwise eventually Skruffs will find it hard to explain why no-one can claim role blocker. Still a very dangerous gambit, because the moment a mafia role blocker dies, Skruffs hangs.

[Dragon Phoenix]

You think a mafia role blocker would block Skruffs of all players night one? With a claimed investigation role about, which they could not be sure they could kill?

[Dragon Phoenix]

You think a mafia role blocker would block Skruffs of all players night one? With a claimed investigation role about, which they could not be sure they could kill?

>.<
The mafia KILLED BM. Why would they also waste a block on him?
BM is improving in play over how he used to be but he still has rather bad luck with night actions.

DP & MGM -
Superkills overwhelm doc protection. Why postulate things if you are not going to consider possibilities at all?

Who said anything about blocking BM? And WTF is a superkill?

[Dragon Phoenix]

First time hear it call that. Never mind.

And in sharing embarassing moments: just now, I actually googled for the term dochunting, as I failed to read it correctly.

[Dragon Phoenix]

My DB vote is getting nowhere fast. Joining the Foolinc wagon, seeing that he is on my likely scum list as well.

Unvote

Vote Foolinc

, Dani Banani, Mgm, Cogito Ergo Sum, [Adele, Gaspar, Pooky, Talitha, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Skruffs, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LML, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Not sure whether I will have much time to get on this weekend, so anotrher quick post. For the time being, nothing much has changed. I don;t think I ever played with Skruffs, but according to some of the posts, those who did, have similar reactions to him as I did. I read that as scummy yesterday, but if he always plays like this, I am comfortable with the way he ranks in my condorcet right now.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Not much happening - weekend after all - no incentive to change my vote. I expect to have time again on Tuesday; busy Monday with meetings and business dinner.

[Dragon Phoenix]

DP, Pooky, and Talitha on the other hand seem to be perfectly fine with voting for me number one just because it's a bandwagon.

Get your facts right. I for one am voting for you because it is a bandwagon AND you are very high on my likely scum list, if not number one.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Am I the only one who notices that foolinc is calling it incorrectly a PASSWORD repeatedly? I'm even more happy now with my vote.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Am I the only one who notices that foolinc is calling it incorrectly a PASSWORD repeatedly? I'm even more happy now with my vote.

i'm not sure I follow - Are you saying that you don't think scum have these words, therefore foolinc doesn't know what to call it?

The thought crossed my mind, yes. Not a big one, but an additional small addition to the lynch rope.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I liked what I saw of MBL better than Adele - until the no lynch came along. Even as a placeholder, I find that a weird move. For that reason, no change yet in my condorcet vote.

And on a side note, I am glad I am not the only one who is struggling with the selective and misquoting of Skruffs. However, I really think that is how he plays, rather than seeing it as scummy anymore.

[Dragon Phoenix]

My gut feeling is that the claim is bogus, but I am not willing to lynch a claimed doctor just yet. Going back to suspect number 1:

Unvote

Vote Dani Banani

, Mgm, Cogito Ergo Sum, [Adele, Gaspar, Pooky, Talitha, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Skruffs, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], Foolinc, LML, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Interesting developments.

I need a re-read with all the extra information we have right now. I'll try to squeeze that in tonight. I'm also working on a temp replacement as I will be off-line from Wednesday about 9AM CET until Saturday night.

[Dragon Phoenix]

MeMe will replace me during my coming absence (thanks once again!). I will try to put an analysis in later tonight or tomorrow morning before we leave for Hamburg.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I will try to put an analysis in later tonight or tomorrow morning before we leave for Hamburg.

Nope, not going to happen. Starting this Sunday I will be having a lot more time on my hands (for starters I am switching to a 4 day work week), and I will be able to get into the game once more. Ta.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Alright, we're back. Thansk MeMe for taking care of my post obligation. I am too tired now, but will do a re-read tomorrow and post an updated analysis. I did notice some discussion about the mod being a serial killer .... good memories of DP13 there.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Alright, gone through this day's discussion

Cogito Ergo Sum: no additional notes.

foolinc: did not buy his doctor claim fully yesterday, but two scum groups could indeed have relied on the other to take care of him. For the time being still the benefit of the doubt

Gaspar, replacing PlaysWithSquirrels D1: although I am in two minds about the mod/SK thing (I can see mith using it), Gaspars post 1084 seems a bit off. It borders on a no-lynch recommendation unless the theory is right.

IH, replacing Oman D1: I agree that the innocent Fresnino thing does look a bit suspicious, but I would not put it past mith to throw in something like this.

logicticus: no additional notes.

LoudmouthLee: no change on his read. I don't buy the capitalized SK/scum day kill theory, far too direct for an experienced mod like mith to include.

MrBuddyLee, replacing Adele D2: post 1045 does not sit well with me. At all. Difficult to point out what exactly, but it set off scum bells in my head.

PookyTheMagicalBear: depending on how the LML thing turns out, post 1092 is either insightful or scummy. For the time being I tend to think of LML as innocent, which makes this post more scummy (looking for an easy victim).

Sarcastro, replacing Dani Banani D3, Mastermind of Sin D1: no additional notes.

Talitha: don't see much in the discussion around whether she has prior knowledge about the size of scum groups. Any experienced player would reason the way she did. I like her defense against this, and in general she moves down my scumminess rating.

Tamuz, replacing Thestatusquo D1: no additional notes.

VitaminR: I like post 1058 and the case made against Adele/MBL.

Zindaras : no additional notes.

So the condorcet, adjusted from yesterday.

Vote MrBuddyLee

, Sarcastro, Cogito Ergo Sum, [Gaspar, Pooky, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Talitha, VitaminR, Zindaras], Foolinc, LML, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

I think the whole LACE XYZ thing is bollocks and that LML is reacting on it in a way that I can't blame him for. Hence I still have him as very low on my suspicion list.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I fully agree with VitaminR on these issues. We are wasting valuable time on these most likely non-issues instead of trying to get to a real lynch. If there is fishy business going on with the mod, it can be sorted out later (they did that to me in the endplay of DP13).

[Dragon Phoenix]

Why would lynching the mod in this stage of the game be a good idea? Most likely we would just be wasting a lynch (effectively meaning a no-lynch vote). I see no clear case against Mr. Grey, whereas there are several scummy candidates for a rope.

[Dragon Phoenix]

There are still far too many people who are not voting. Do something! Now! Don't wait until just before the deadline when we may be forced after a claim to go to a less discussed alternative.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Given your last line, why are the two of you not voting for him then?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Alright, I finally admit that Pooky has a case. Although I still find the original link (tghe whole LACE XXYZZ thing) far fetched and not in character with mith's modding, LML's (lack of) defence has by now become telling.

Unvote MrBuddyLee

Vote LML

, MrBuddyLee, Sarcastro, Cogito Ergo Sum, [Gaspar, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Pooky, Talitha, VitaminR, Zindaras], Foolinc, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

One SK down, with my apologies to those whom I initially did not believe about LML. I think his attack on Pooky was just frustrated spite, does not seem part of his role.

I am bothered by the death of VitaminR. He was pretty low on most people's suspicion list and as such an obvious night target.

That makes me question Foolinc once more. I think you need to tell us whom you protected last night and why.

[Dragon Phoenix]

What I noted overnight is that Tally and DP -- both of whom I've suspected mildly to moderately already -- both joined the LmLwagon late, when beforehand MBL (whom I obviously believe is scum) would have been the Condorcet winner. If MBL doesn't end up being the lynch of the day, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing either of those two hang.

Sure, I wanted to make sure that MBL would not be lynched. That's why I voted for him all day.

If you want to throw suspicion, try to do it in a more clever way. You are moving up the condorcet ladder once I preparae a new one.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I think the "case" against CES is total bull. I am moving pooky and logisticus up the ladder. Time for an updated condorcet:

Vote MrBuddyLee

, Sarcastro, [Cogito Ergo Sum, Logisticus, Pooky, Gaspar, Tamuz], [IH, Talitha, Zindaras], Foolinc, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Oh, and I will be on once in a while the coming days, but will not be posting a lot until Tuesday - tomorrow is my father's 80th birthday and we have a couple of days of celebration scheduled.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Placeholder post. I will not be on line much the coming days as stated, so I am taking the opportunity when it comes. I read to the past series of posts and nothing jumps a me that makes me want to change my voting kist.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Another post to meet the posting requirements. From tomorrow onwards I have more time again and will see whether there is anything that changes my mind. A quick skim of the more recent posts does not suggest so yet.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, I have done a re-read of the last few (real) days. As I expected, I find nothing new coming up that makes me change my mind from my previous vote and condorcet.

I still don't think there is any reason why we should go after the mod at this stage. That may change if we get another day kill though.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I find the 5th most likely. And I do not consider him a risk, hence he is not on my condorcet. Like I said, if we have another day kill I will probably change my mind (especially if I am the victim... =D )

[Dragon Phoenix]

Once again, we have a lot of people who do not vote. Come on, at least put your vote somewhere. Maybe these votes will trigger more discussion.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I'm keeping my vote, because I consider MrBuddyLee clearly more scummy than Logisticus. I am changing my condorcet on the basis of:

Not voting: Cogito Ergo Sum, PookyTheMagicalBear, Zindaras

Even if you are not scum, you are not helping the town by not voting with the deadline only a few days away. All three of you move up one step in my list.

Vote MrBuddyLee

, Sarcastro, [Cogito Ergo Sum, Pooky], [Logisticus, Gaspar, Tamuz, Zindaras], [IH, Talitha], Foolinc, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Cogito is no longer with us DP.

Well, the players list was not updated yet. Does not matter, his replacement does not vote either.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Close to the deadline. I am moving up Seteal/CES for post 1517, which is full of crap whereever she is referring to my actions - I'll gladly pick that apart tomorrow if we are both still around. I am not switching to Logisticus, because I think he is not scummy.

Vote MrBuddyLee

, [Sarcastro, Seteal/Cogito Ergo Sum], Pooky, [Logisticus, Gaspar, Tamuz, Zindaras], [IH, Talitha], Foolinc, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Don;t know if this still has any effect:

Vote MrBuddyLee

, [Sarcastro, Seteal/Cogito Ergo Sum], Pooky, [Gaspar, Tamuz, Zindaras], [IH, Talitha], Foolinc, Logisticus, DP, no lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Busy weekend, did not realize we had started again. Placeholder post to aviod (I hope replacement), will go through the events later today or tomorrow. More later y'all. Ta.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Tomorrow I have my day off. I will go into the posts then.

[Dragon Phoenix]

As promised a reaction to Setael's post of yesterday.

Dani Banani, replacing Mastermind of Sin D1: post 666 (!) is as scummy as they come. Building trust with two players and suggesting a play for the day without any motivation. Post 739 does not sit well with me either. Why on earth bring up the secret word thing as townie - when for all you know [if you are a townie] that scum do not have secret words? Likely scum.

This logic makes no sense. I can see no reason why scum would be motivated to talk about secret words. Townies, on the other hand, would have no fear of doing so. DP came off looking very scummy for accusing Dani of being scum for bringing up secret words.

Talk about making no sense. Townies know they have a secret word, because it is in their role description. There is no certainty that scum will have secret words too. Therefore, townies should not bring up this subject, because if scum do not have them they can trap scum later in the game with it.

824 DP opportunistically jumps on the foolinc wagon – gives a scummy sounding explanation for the vote

My explanation (conveniently left out) was "seeing that he is on my likely scum list as well. ". He was. I posted that. Total bullcrap therefore.

874 DP basically lurking – pops in and says ‘no incentive to change my vote’ – scummy

Your assessment that I am lurking whereas I have posted several lengthy posts explaining my thoughts. Seeing no incentove to change a vote is scummy nowadays? Good grief.

880 DP does not look like he's bussing; foolinc once again coming off town

DP 889 and IH in 892 and 894 re: “password” vs. “secret word”. Both DP and IH’s posts come off looking scummy. IH has never actually said he has a secret word, but has tried to subtly imply it. Same with DP.

Since I have no clue what bussing means here, I'm sure that I do not look like I'm bussing. I never subtly implied that I had a secret word afaik. I do have one by the way,a nd I have not used it. yet.

In short, (almost) everything in this post about me is total rubbish, twisted and misprepresented. that's why I moved Setael up my list. I will look into the rest of what happened later.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, time slips through my fingers without too much time to invest in this game. Should be better later this weekend. Or in other words, another post to avoid elimination. More later, including an updated condorcet.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Updated feelings about the players, upto post 1600 (more later):

Setael: continues to rub me the wrong way with her posts (like 1548), too much insinuation. Likely scum.

Foolinc: I have been wary of him ever since his claim, and his self-admitted screwing up by not protecting someone does not help. However, without anyone counterclaiming doctor (which should be done latest the following playing day), he still gets the benefit of the doubt from me.

Sarcastro: post 1550 is highly scummy. Zindaras' action was good, trying to save a claimed masonish role and trying to avoid a no-lynch. Sarcastro is really reaching here. Post 1560 has one of my private scum tells (*sigh*). Post 1587 smells scummy as well.

Talitha: I like the theory of foolinc having been recruited (1553). Even if it is not true, it shows a good attempt trying to explain what happened. I like her as pro-town now.

Gaspar: post 1559 smacks of pro-town; post 1577 makes a good point vs Setael's attitude towrds foolinc.

Zindaras: good defence against Sarcastro (1565), do not like his scepticism vs the Talitha theory here.

TSS (silent Lee): Can't follow his logic re secret words in post 1572. Post 1593 is an attempt to frame Talitha that does not stick.

IH: post 1573: Logisticus killed by a vig? O rly?

Pooky: post 1590 - I could not agree more. I want a nice old fashioned lynch by majority.


Interim assessment in ranking of scumminess (condorcet style):

Sarcastro, Setael, Silent Lee, [IH, Pooky], [Gaspar, Zindaras, Talitha], Foolinc

[Dragon Phoenix]

Part 2: 1600-now

Talitha: not quite sure what to make of her sudden change of mind 1608/1609. On the other hand it does not seem like something scum would do. I am not convinced with her assessment that foolinc is the best lead right now - even though as I said before I do not blindly believe his claim.

Gaspar: I like 1611 as pro-town.

Sarcastro: post 1616 is not helping, and looks scummy. So is his following Pooky's lead immediately re Zindaras.

Pooky: the Sarcastro interaction in post 1617 is... well, weird. Don't like post 1622, and that has nothing to do with me being mentioned as possible scum. There is no reasoning whatsoever presented behind the names he puts down. Scummy vibes.

IH: post 1632 is too long for my taste, but still basically helpful.

Silent Lee: I like the combo so far better than the separate players..

With that, my current condorcet is:

Vote Sarcastro

, Setael, Pooky, [IH, Silent Lee], [Gaspar, Zindaras, Talitha], Foolinc

[Dragon Phoenix]

Post 1560 is correct, but it goes against Setael, not Sacastro (Cadmium/Corsato all over again). My mistake, apologies. Post 1616 sounds faked. For the time being, my mistake does not give me reason to change my vote or condorcet though.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I think they are both likely scum, but I rank Sarcastro even higher,

I really don;t get the connection between your supposed vigging of Log and foolinc being scum. Tehan againa I am slightly drnk, so.

[Dragon Phoenix]

OK, I have sobered up - apologies for that.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I am not giving foolinc a free ride, but I do think it is too soon to string up our only claimed doctor. Especially since there are in my opinion better candidates.

I would not put it past mith to exclude a pro-town doctor altogether. But I am not willing to put my money on that right now.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Come to think of it, I am not buying the mafia role blocker theory, unless someone can convince me otherwise; In every game I have been in with role blockers (pro or anti town), a role blocked player was informed that his/her nightly action did not go through.

[Dragon Phoenix]

So, is the discussion dying down again and are we heading for another pathetic no-lynch? We are really handing the scum this game on a silver platter. Anyone not voting yet, comit to someone!

[Dragon Phoenix]

I would obviously prefer a Sarcastro or Setael lynch, but I can live with a Pooky bandwagon. If that is the way the wind will blow today, I will hop on.

If we were no already this far in the game, I would gladly lynch any of the non-voters. If you are scum, great job to get away with it. If you are town, you suck.

[Dragon Phoenix]

@DP: Can you give any reasons for thinking I'm scum that aren't OMGUS?

Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.

What I meant was that you had not expressed suspicion of me/my predecessor until I accused you of being scum. Can you please point out where you stated your suspicion of CES?

Do you even read my posts? I quoted the post number in mine. And that was long before you even joined the game.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I don't sense any real scum vibe from Zindaras - except that I am beginning to become a bit sceptical with respect to his passiveness as well. Silent Lee and Zindaras are STILL not on the voting board, and that is just simply bad, whether you are town or scum. Since no-one is wanting to follow my Sarcastro lead, and a switch to my #2 suspect is hardly better, I will probably switch to Pooky or Zindaras if he does not contribute more. I will have a re-read of today's happenings first.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Cherry picking your psots, because some of them are to vague to warrant an answer:

(TSS.)

I will do so later "today" when it becomes meaningful.

I go back to Skruffs, and wtill do the condorcet thingy

Yes, technically this was later in the day, but what had made it suddenly meaningful?

Over a 100 posts inbetween, so much more to go on. Duh.

At around the beginning of day 2,

Adele: little to go on.

Yet she moves up a notch on his condorcet from her place the day before, when she was tied for the bottom bar DP himself and no lynch. She moved up another notch in his next condorcet, no reason given.

It did not occur to you that she moved up because others moved down? As soon as you start ranking players as Probable town, the ones you do not have a read on yet move up. Duh.

There was a Thesp-DP interaction speculating on the possibility that Skruffs (who had claimed a blocked action) could be a mafia roleblocker. Posts 781-796. I'm not fond of any of it. I hadn't remembered that the first person to mention the possibility of a scum blocker was Thesp; IMO this supports my contention that Talitha hypoed power scum because she kew they were there. DP implied that if one dies, Skruffs must hang next; Mgm rightly called him on this logic as being extremely stupid. DP seems to have consistently liked Thesp.

Please state where I said what you are attributing to me (DP implied that if one dies, Skruffs must hang next)? And indeed, I did not suspect Thesp that much. My bad or his good.

DP appears to have suspected foolinc on the grounds that he called a secret word a "password". I don't get his point, as it was perfectly plain what foolinc was referring to. I find it unlikely that all town would have a secret word and no scum would, lest a wordclaim break the game.

I agree it is not likely, but it is worthwhile enough to discuss.

In view of previous expressed sentiments on CES and recent expressed sentiments on Setael, I find this post:

think the "case" against CES is total bull.

very

very

interesting.

Care to say why this is so interesting? I am still suspecting CES but not on the basis of that particular bullshit argument.

Post 1593 is an attempt to frame Talitha that does not stick.

"Frame"? If you think I am wrong in my suspicions, say so. If you think I am posting them in

mala fides

, put your money where your mouth is.

I probably should have said "looks like" instead of "is", I'll grant you that.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Learn how to read, Silent Lee. Looks like =/ is. And the fact that you do not vote but ooooh have a condorcet means squat. It is also because of non-voters like you that we are possibly heading to another stupid no lynch. A Talitha vote at this stage does not contribuet either. I also note that you carefully avoid the question in my post from which you quote snippets.

I prefer a Pooky lynch clearly over a Zindaras lynch, but will switch to Zindaras before the deadline if that's what it takes to get as lynch. So:

Unvote Sarcastro
Vote Pooky

, Sarcastro, Setael, Silent Lee, IH, [Gaspar, Zindaras, Talitha], Foolinc, DP, No lynch

[Dragon Phoenix]

Why claim please Zindy? Why not Pooky?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Placeholder post - not sure how long we are already in day again and do nto want to get replaced. I will read through the events and posts and then come up with something better than this.

[Dragon Phoenix]

OK, events of the day so far - I tend to believe Gaspar.

DP-Why did you hop on the pooky wagon?

A rhetorical question I assume, since I posted my reasons? He was in my top 3 scum candidates and the last thing I wanted was another stupid no-lynch.

Off to a further analysis.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Stangely enough, given the fact that he has scored very low on my scumdar all game, so do I. Talitha is also moving up rapidly in scumminess today. I suggest we all prepare our new condorcet, but do not vote yet.

[Dragon Phoenix]

If this one were no already on 73 pages, I would seriously considering asking for a replacement, because I have two very busy weeks ahead of me - but I should be able to mee the posting requirement. Tomorrow I will try to get my thoughts on paper. Oh, and talitha, you move up on the scumminess mainly because of your reactions to Gaspar. In addition, my scumdar has been so bad this game so far, that I am considering a negative approach: those I thought least scummy might actually be scum. More tomorrow.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I am busy with meetings and business dinners until Wednesday evening. after that, things should slow down sufficiently to make a better analysis. I apologize, but end November is a very busy time for me.

[Dragon Phoenix]

FIne with me. I do not have the time right now for a substantial re-read, but I will be monitoring the thread and chip in with my role name etcwhen I am asked to.

[Dragon Phoenix]

All this waiting until it's my turn to claim is nice, but I almost forgot to post at all to meet the 25 words minimum requisite. Corrected with this post. I have some thoughts about the claims so far, but I'd rather wait until everyone has claimed.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I am Sindbad the Sailor, townie with one ability: A limited number of times per game I can head for the sea and be shielded from most night actions by other players.

And btw I do have a secret word and I still have not used it.

Today at work, tomorrow time to go through all the claims and make sense of it.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I am Sindbad the Sailor, townie with one ability: A limited number of times per game I can head for the sea and be shielded from most night actions by other players.

And btw I do have a secret word and I still have not used it.

Today at work, tomorrow time to go through all the claims and make sense of it.

Serves me right for claiming just before going to a meeting. The right name is indeed Sinbad, not Sindbad. More tomorrow.

[Dragon Phoenix]

First scan:
I believe sarcastro (duh) and Gaspar.
I am very sceptical of Silent Lee, for obvious reasons given his claim which mirrors mine except for the actual frequency. I could see a double role like this in the game with odd and even nights specified respectively, but two hider/commuter roles with totally different mechanics, one far more powerful than the other?
Setael's posts keep on rubbing me the wrong way, but since my scumdar has been totally off most of this game, I am not putting much weight on that. Like I said before, I did not like Talitha's reaction to the Gaspar claim.
The gift thing: I have never been offered one, I have never used my secret word either. Could indeed be a mod action triggered by the use of the word.

Off to a second scan.

Current condorcet would be:

Silent Lee, Tallitha, Setael, IH, [Gaspar, Sarcastro]

[Dragon Phoenix]

Post 1787 did it for me (the whole I don't buy the claim bit). I also do not like your remark on Zindaras in that post - something you would prbably say if he were your scumbuddy. In addition, I am getting more suspicious of you because like Zindy I never really suspected you. My scumdar is clearly malfunctioning this game.

You might still go down a notch upon my second scan.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I don;t know whether that is Setael's playstyle, but everytime stuff like this happens my scumdar pings. Like when she said that I went last with my claim - adding that it was maybe beacuse my turn was last. Well, duh.

[Dragon Phoenix]

The recent exchanges makes me prefer Tailtha over Setael as town. I don;t see anything happening that could make me want to change my prime lynch candidate. I'm ready to vote. Anything stopping us?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Let's roll.

Vote Silent Lee

, Setael, Tallitha, IH, [Gaspar, Sarcastro]

[Dragon Phoenix]

Not much to discuss further as far as I am concerned, so just a routine 25 words or more message to get me some space for the coming days(s) in order not to get out.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Setael, if you are town, you are one of the worst I have ever seen. But I am still betting you are scum.

There was nothing to defend against - the two voted most likely scum by DP were the ones voting for DP. Well, duh. There goes your argument into thin air - as usual.

Things change now that IH has added his vote. But there is still not that much to argue about. The claims are out there in the open, and it is a matter of making up your mind whose claims are the most likely ones. I have made up my mind.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I agree with Setael being candidate #1 right now. I would really like to hear more about this gift giving - I am not doing it and I still have not received anything either.

[Dragon Phoenix]

So it is pretty much stablished of course that Setael is the gift giver. But I am not sure that I would assume that this role is automatically town. And I also do not like her not coming out with this yesterday when it was claim time. Off to a re-read.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Food for thought.

OK, so who has been able to link Leon S. Peters to someone giving a power to others?

From here:
http://www.valleyhistory.org/FindingAids/mss092.html

During his lifetime, Leon S. Peters became one of the most widely respected businessmen in Foundry. He was hired as a salesman for the Valley Foundry and Machine Works in 1929. By 1940, Peter's purchased the company that had been founded in 1898 by Fresnan Ben Hunt and located on H Street in downtown Fresno, the company was a supplier of vineyard and winery machinery. During the Great Depression and World War II, Valley Foundry turned its attention to the war effort and provided material to the Army and Navy. Peters with the officials of other Fresno manufacturing companies formed the Central California War Industries cooperative and began to manufacture torpedo tubes tudes, cargo winches, bronze ship bells and hundreds of other related items. The cooperative partners led by Peters won the Army and Navy "E" award four years in a row. After the war, Valley Foundry returned to the manufacture of winemaking equipment.

Peters was named to the Board of Directors of several corporations such as Pacific Gas and Electric and was Chairman of the Board of Fresno Community Hospital. Peters was instrumental in the fund-raising program of Community Hospital and under his direction the present structure was built in 1955. His later efforts included fund raising for the new Fresno State College Campus now California State University, Fresno at Cedar and Shaw Avenues and Bulldog Stadium. The Leon S. Peters Building at Fresno State was named in his honor for his work with and support of business students. Peters was active in community organizations and was a member of the Fresno Rotary Club, as well as the Masonic Lodge. He was a member of the Armenian Assembly at the time of his death.

I don' t see the connection with a power giving role.

Another thing that bothers me about the claim is the random part. I think mith is not really a fan of any random actions.

The re-read will have to wait until tomorrownight.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Even though she is gone, I assume we can still lynch Setael, even if you cannot kill her.

However, I think that this latest development, especially with an extra day kill as a result of her gift, essentially clears her.

I'd say shoot IH. let's discuss further depending on how he comes up (I give it 80%+ by now that he's scum - and hopefully the last one). IF he is town, we can still lynch (hopefully) the last scum.

My condorcet right now:
IH - Talitha - Gaspar - Setael

[Dragon Phoenix]

Several of us voted for Mr. Grey who is not exactly there either during the day, right?

I am not extremely suspicious of IH (I was of Setael) but I think you (gaspar) are genuine, Setael basically cleared, and I rank IH higher than Talitha. I do need to readdress that though before I will vote (whether Talitha shoots him beforehand is her decision, but given the fact that I am almost sure that it is either IH or Talitha as scum, anything we say in that respect does not make much difference).

[Dragon Phoenix]

I personally don't think it's IH.

Why not?

Tag fixed. - Mod

[Dragon Phoenix]

grr arg. I'd forgotten about this Tally/IH debate at the startof D3, where Tally first pitched the "Innocent Fresnonian" safeclaim theory. I'm going to go back and do this separately, because it involves deep interaction with three living players (IH, Tally, and myself).
----As DP is the one player who was not directly involved in that debate, I'd definitely like him to look over those posts and give me an impression as well. (For reference -- Posts 1368-1376 seem to encompass that discussion.)----

SNIP

DP, I'd like you to look over that debate in the aftermath of VitR's death. I'd also like you to explain more clearly exactly

why

you feel IH is scum.

Will do. I had planned to put some time in this game today given the fact that we have rain forcast, but just now the wife got the bright idea to go to a museum instead. I'll try to squeeze it in later.

I can't say that I feel that IH is scum by the way. It is just a matter of elimination. The stories of Gaspar and Setael check out pretty well with the things that have happened and I see neither as scum. So it is between Talitha and IH for me. I will also try to analyse why I think IH is the more likely one (probably the voting yesterday - I'll check).

[Dragon Phoenix]

OK, I have been delayed, but I did read that sequence three times now and somehow it does not sink in and nothing comes to mind. It does not help that I am fucking tired (apart from work, my "job" as a mod for a Flickr site is costing me more than an hour intensive work a night). I will give it one more shot tomorrow.

Wrt to why I think Talitha is less liekly scum than IH: she was on SilentLee pretty much all of yesterday. IH chose me instead. And in retrospect the wording of his post 1955 looks very much like trying to save SL. Try that post out for size, and see how you look at it now.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Four left including one mafia one would presume.

No lynch anyone? Force the scum to eliminate one candidate and thus make the choice a bit easier?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Setael is listed as missing (not dead), but you are right, we canot automatically assume she will return tomorrow.

On the other hand, if she is the remaining scum, and we lynch one of us and she does return during the night, we have handed her the game on a golden platter.

Let me try to see whether we can vote for her. Please do not follow with votes until we had a vote count.

Vote Setael

[Dragon Phoenix]

Unvote Setael

[Dragon Phoenix]

The first thing we need to make a decision on then is whether we think it is likely that Setael will be returning to the game.

IF she returns, no lynch is IMO the only correct play. Any lynch today would at best make no difference and at worst hand the play to Setael if she is scum.

IF she does not return, no lynch loses the game to the last scum immediately.

I have seen little or nothing to change my opinion about the three others:

Setael: scummy as hell, but can't fit it in with the gift giving - unless she HAS TO do that every time, in which case she still could be scum.

Gaspar: their claim/story totally fits what has happened so far, with the possible exception of a lack of hammering - but then again, why would a scumgaspar not hammer in such a situation to beef up their claim?

Talitha: has been on my "less likely scum" list most of the game, her attack on the claimed Gaspar made me doubt, her chasing for a scum lynch yesterday on the other hand smacks of course of town.

The non-lynchability of Setael makes me lean towards her not coming back. And that means I am leaning to a Talitha lynch right now.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Just want to make sure that I am not getting replaced this late in the game with an obligatiry post. I will have time to do another re-read tomorrow to see whether there is any chance that I am believing Gaspar's claim for the wrong reasons, or whether Setael could still be the last scum.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I still think that Gaspar is most likely what they claim. We cannot lynch Setael and I consider it is too risky to gamble on a no lynch - but we have not asked the mod yet, have we?

Mod, can you tell us whether Setael will return to the game during the night phase or during the morning?

Please see the Post Content section of the rules regarding asking questions of the Mod. Tags removed. - Mod

[Dragon Phoenix]

I was not certain. It was a gamble I was willing to take.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Prim:

*doesn't hammer*

Good choice.

Well, as we probably have to assume that Setael will not return, the choice is now easy.

And the pooky lynch is hardly an argument - au contraire. The remaining scum would have every reason to join the wagon knowing full well that pooky was innocent, and co-scum zindaras facing the heat.

Anyway, the choice is yours Gaspar.

Vote Talitha

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, that was quite an experience (albeit a frustrating one given the result). Congrats scumbags, excellent play. And excellent set-up and modding mith.