California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

8 to lynch.

IH: 1 (LoudmouthLee)

[Dragon Phoenix]

MeMe will replace me during my coming absence (thanks once again!). I will try to put an analysis in later tonight or tomorrow morning before we leave for Hamburg.

[VitaminR]

IH is telling the truth, I think.

Thesp's death makes LML less likely to be scum in my eyes. Thesp pushed him pretty hard from the start.

I agree with Zindaras that there's something odd in Talitha's posts. She's going up on my list and he's going down. Also moving foolinc down.

MBL needs to die today.

Vote: MBL

, Talitha, Tamuz, Dani Banani, logicticus, Gaspar, foolinc, IH, [Zindaras, LML] [Dragon Phoenix, CES]

[Tamuz]

Well that kinda tosses my world up.
Thesp isn't much of a stretch for me to see as mafia, thankfully.
However, Skruffs being innocent just blows my mind. Anyways, in addition to that, are we experiencing some bastard-modding with Getting skruff's role as innocent rather that some role with a night ability? There are really 4 possibilities I can see in light of his death.
1. Incomplete Post (less likely, usually Grey just adds flavour rather than more mechanic info)
2. Bastard Moddery (Fairly unlikely, but possible, revealing a roled townie as an innocent)
3. One shot Items (Dunno the chance and possibility, but this would imply either randomness, or an invented working night 0)
4. Forced posts (this possibility makes me very unhappy, but I feel it is fairly unlikely because skruffs would have alluded to it if this was the truth.

Uhh weigh on yesterday, I don't trust foolinc's claim, especially with the way he came out today.

[Zindaras]

It's slightly odd, and makes you look slightly more suspicious, but each scum group might have thought the other group would kill you.

This post. How would this make sense, pre-N2? During the first cycle, we had two kills (I'm counting xyzzy's death here). Xyzzy doesn't make sense from a scumteam's perspective. Now, BM does. So, after N1, how would the scum know there was another scumteam and play according to that? And how do we know there are two scumteams now?

The certainty of two scumgroups this seems to present distresses me greatly.

[Talitha]

Well, this is totally hypothetical, but if I were in a scum group of 3 people and my group name was

Parisian mafia

, and in a game this size... would I not conclude that there was very likely another group? If there's only one mafia group, Thesp's role should've simply been

Baron Danglars (mafia)

.

[Talitha]

I wonder if the other group is a Fresno mafia?

[Zindaras]

If you take a look at Verbose 2, mith's last game, you'll note that (unless I'm reading it wrong), there was an Italian Mafia, and the Italian Mafia were the only scumteam.

[Talitha]

Ah - you're right. But I still maintain that a scum group, who know how many members they have, what their abilities are, etc, would have a decent idea of whether there are other killing groups in the game.

[IH]

So.... you know you're abilities and members and maintain there should be another?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Talitha is right. If you're a member of a 3-man mafia in a game this size, you'd expect there to be another.

I need to re-read because all my suspects are dead. Which is problematic.

Tamuz, Innocent is Skruffs' alignment. There's no reason to assume that tells us anything about his role.

FoS: Tamuz

[Zindaras]

I would disagree (Traitors, Town roles, things like that can mess with numbers), and even if I would agree, the evidence from Night 1 suggests only 1 team, and I simply cannot see a rational scumteam play while taking into account the presence of another scumteam in this situation.

Also, I'm absolutely psyched to finally get to play with MeMe. I haven't been able to do that before. ^_^

[Talitha]

OK then - out of curiosity Zindy, what do you see as the likeliest explanation for why foolinc was not killed overnight?

[LoudmouthLee]

OK then - out of curiosity Zindy, what do you see as the likeliest explanation for why foolinc was not killed overnight?

Isn't this WIFOM at it's finest?

I would disagree (Traitors, Town roles, things like that can mess with numbers), and even if I would agree, the evidence from Night 1 suggests only 1 team, and I simply cannot see a rational scumteam play while taking into account the presence of another scumteam in this situation.

Until Mith updates the method of death (if I saw correctly, both Thesp and Scruffs were murdered), while Xyzzy was...

xyzzy (Barbara Morgan, Innocent) - myocardiacally infarced Day 2.

This seems to lend itself to THREE killing parties, not two. A player of your claiber should not miss something this major.

I'm a bit disturbed at foolinc's "secret word". Faked. It just... doesn't seem like it's a pro-town word. I'm merely speculating. I know my charms are far-reaching.

I'm unsure how much I like IH's claim, yet both Glork and VitR seem to find him more innocent than less.

Right now, I'm going to make a mini condorcet and chage my vote. I thought Zindy was pro-townish (mainly because I thought Thesp was pro-townish), but after re-reading D1, I'd like to see him swing.

PS: MGM was a townie with a rolename. IH is a townie without a rolename? Pass.

Tamuz wasn't shocked that Thesp was scum, huh?

And to answer the question of why foolinc was left alive, i subject 2 answers for you.

#1) He's scum.
#2) Scum is baiting us to believe he's scum.

Which is it, Tally?

Unvote,
Vote: Tally

, Zindaras, IH, Tamuz, CES, MBL, [the lot]. No Lynch, Foolinc, LML

[Gaspar]

MBL needs to die today.

Well, this is something I (Glork) can at least agree with. I'll re-read the end of yesterday and make a Condorcet later, if Primate hasn't posted by then. In the meantime...

Vote: MBL

[IH]

Bleh, Talitha is going the same path Thesp was yesterday about speculating on Nightkills.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I will try to put an analysis in later tonight or tomorrow morning before we leave for Hamburg.

Nope, not going to happen. Starting this Sunday I will be having a lot more time on my hands (for starters I am switching to a 4 day work week), and I will be able to get into the game once more. Ta.

[VitaminR]

PS: MGM was a townie with a rolename. IH is a townie without a rolename? Pass.

This seems an overly simplistic way to see it.

Talitha is right. If you're a member of a 3-man mafia in a game this size, you'd expect there to be another.

That still makes it strange that Talitha made the assumption, especially seeing the Night 1 kills. She talked about it as if it was certain.

[Talitha]

Can you please point out where I talked about it as if it was certain? I'm checking over my posts and I'm not seeing it.

[Zindaras]

OK then - out of curiosity Zindy, what do you see as the likeliest explanation for why foolinc was not killed overnight?

Either the scum wanted to get him lynched or they simply don't care about him (which would imply a scum roleblocker or some other powerrole).

Until Mith updates the method of death (if I saw correctly, both Thesp and Scruffs were murdered), while Xyzzy was...

xyzzy (Barbara Morgan, Innocent) - myocardiacally infarced Day 2.

This seems to lend itself to THREE killing parties, not two. A player of your claiber should not miss something this major.

Actually, while I forgot about the different kill methods, note that I nowhere suggest that xyzzy was killed by a second scumteam. My suggestion was that, looking at xyzzy's death, a scumteam wouldn't assume that it would be the work of another scumteam.

Right now, I'm going to make a mini condorcet and chage my vote. I thought Zindy was pro-townish (mainly because I thought Thesp was pro-townish), but after re-reading D1, I'd like to see him swing.

Wait, what?

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, top scum candidate by FAR is Dani Banani. MoS was creepy-useless, and Banani hasn't shown any interest in finding scum. Calling Mgm the "correct play" is a scummy way of indicating suspicion, claiming difficulty reading the recently scummy Talitha looks like weak distancing, as does the "agreement" with Thespscum where the statement about lurkers could have EASILY been made without mentioning Thesp. Check it out.

PWS was scummy, Gaspar's mentioned me in 70% of his posts since I entered the game, and he's wrong YET AGAIN about my alignment. He was wrong about Mgm and I think his read on Banani is atrocious and inexplicable. Plus the inattentive miss-the-claim thing.

I agree with Zindaras that there's something odd in Talitha's posts. She's going up on my list and he's going down. Also moving foolinc down.

MBL needs to die today.

No, I really don't. I need to be evaluated today, just like you and everyone else needs to be evaluated today. You've had about five real-life days worth of posts to evaluate me on since I replaced in, and I was packing and moving 1000 miles but still found time to do a skim and full read of the game and post dozens of thoughts covering most every player in some detail. So please forgive me if I express disdain for your complete and utter lack of an argument. I also know you're quality scum, VitR, and I know you know that I know that. So I'm watching you, and I expect pro-town play from you to have a different tenor than what I'm seeing.

CES's behavior with regards to Mgm is highly suspect. Total inconsistency of suspicion/trust level and argument/defense.

If there are two anti-town killing groups, one freaked out when their kill didn't go through yesterday and may have leaked suspicion of the possible existence of two groups.

The scum would probably know from the size of their group that there's likely another family out there.

Thesp's role was one of four men upon whom the Count took revenge in the book. If Thesp's group totalled four mafia, and they suspected an SK committed the 2nd kill N1, why would you think they'd suspect another scum family out there? If Thesp's group totalled three mafia, and they thought a second group killed N1, it might make more sense that they'd predict the existence of a second family.

The point, Talitha, is that it's odd that you feel confident in predicting scum knowledge of gamestate when your hypothesis only holds water if the balance is 3-3 and not if it's 4-1. Do you have some knowledge of the setup that the rest of us lack?

I don't like Lee's arguments re: IH and his sheeping on Gaspar/VitR. Frankly, it reeks of good ol' boy collusion.

IH's claim is inappropriate and bizarrely timed. Overly proactively defensive, reads like a play from a scum overnight playbook.

Tamuz echoes CES.

Zindy actually thinking things through out loud, his putting himself in scum's shoes doesn't look fake. Genuine curiosity.

[Talitha]

OK listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. I do not have knowledge of the game setup. I have not expressed "confidence" or "certainty". I did speculate based purely on what I saw in this morning's opening post and on a slightly unexpected night outcome. I put forward two explanations and implied preference for one of them. MBL - why are you asking me about stuff which is in the book when I've already said I'm not familiar with the book?

LML - Don't get me started on WIFOM. It's the most useless and overused acronym ever, and I only ever see it when someone wants to shut down a discussion that I think is interesting and potentially helpful. And if you think I am trying to get foolinc lynched (is that why you're voting me? i am having problems following your posted thought processes in this game) then it's kinda weird that my theorizing (that everyone is commenting about) involves him being town. (BTW in your post you have foolinc as lower than no lynch on your condorcet, yet you're disturbed about his secret word not being very pro-town. Which is it Lee?)

[Talitha]

This may change slightly, but for now..

vote: IH

, IH, IH, IH, Mr Grey, IH, ih, Dani, MBL.

[logicticus]

LML and/or Talitha,

You guys seem to be the ones most in favor of an IH lynch. Whats the case?

I know day 1 IH was really high on the list (mostly due to his predecessor though), what do you have against him?

[VitaminR]

No, I really don't. I need to be evaluated today, just like you and everyone else needs to be evaluated today. You've had about five real-life days worth of posts to evaluate me on since I replaced in, and I was packing and moving 1000 miles but still found time to do a skim and full read of the game and post dozens of thoughts covering most every player in some detail. So please forgive me if I express disdain for your complete and utter lack of an argument. I also know you're quality scum, VitR, and I know you know that I know that. So I'm watching you, and I expect pro-town play from you to have a different tenor than what I'm seeing.

Don't misunderstand me, it's not based on anything you've done. I highlighted what bothered me about Adele.

Talitha, it was this quote:

It's slightly odd, and makes you look slightly more suspicious, but each scum group might have thought the other group would kill you.

The assumption that there are two scum groups seems made too readily here.