California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Dragon Phoenix]

Several of us voted for Mr. Grey who is not exactly there either during the day, right?

I am not extremely suspicious of IH (I was of Setael) but I think you (gaspar) are genuine, Setael basically cleared, and I rank IH higher than Talitha. I do need to readdress that though before I will vote (whether Talitha shoots him beforehand is her decision, but given the fact that I am almost sure that it is either IH or Talitha as scum, anything we say in that respect does not make much difference).

[Talitha]

So I'm the last scum? Or Seteal? C'mon Gas, make your case. If it's Seteal, I think the game would be lost unless we no-kill and no lynch today AND she reappears tomorrow.

[Talitha]

I would vote Seteal to test whether we can vote for her, but I really don't see how she can be the last scum, so don't see the point.

[Talitha]

Also - IH, I am going to break you in half within 24 RL hours unless you give me reason not to.

[Talitha]

Quadruple post.

I would like to draw people's attention to Oman's post #53 in this game where he says

Also Foolinc, if you check out the first page I think we have a number of vanillia townies.

Up until now I have been using this post as evidence of IH's innocence. At first glance it looks like it corroborates his claim. But as I think about it more closely I have to ask the questions:

1. Where on the first page does it indicate that we have "a number of vanilla townies"? It says it is a sample PM, not that there are a number of vanilla townies. I, as Ickey Woods, assumed that the sample PM was just an example of the setting out of the PM, and that all players actually had a proper name. But, if I had a variation of "Innocent Fres-" as a role name I guess I

might

have made a similar assumption to what IH did. So that doesn't really prove anything either way.

2. Would a real vanilla townie have announced this at this point? What was his motivation?

3. Is it really that unlikely that the mod would have included the example role PM in the scum's role PMs and said something like "Townies might not have this exact spelling" or "There may be Innocent Fresnoites, Fresninos or Fresnians in this game". I actually find this very plausable.

[Gaspar]

So I'm the last scum? Or Seteal? C'mon Gas, make your case. If it's Seteal, I think the game would be lost unless we no-kill and no lynch today AND she reappears tomorrow.

I am disinclined to believe it's Setael. It could be you, it could be DP. I personally don't think it's IH.


I would ask that you not kill anybody until I've had a chance to read over the game. (Probably not

entire

game, but at least the deceased scums and the remaining players. I plan on devoting several hours to reading it Saturday afternoon, my time.)

[Dragon Phoenix]

I personally don't think it's IH.

Why not?

Tag fixed. - Mod

[Gaspar]

I personally don't think it's IH.

Why not?

I don't think he was given "Innocent Fresnonite" (or whatever it was) as a safeclaim, and I don't see him going out on a limb to claim the role himself -- especially in the manner that he did, with the slight variant on the actual rolename.

[Gaspar]

EBWOP: To elaborate on why I don't think he was given that rolename as a safe-claim -- I think that one of the other scums (DGB or SilentLee) would likely also have tried to claim some variant of "Innocent Fresno Resident" if that were the case. If they had the tools, they would have used them, IMO.


Going to re-read relatively soon -- been looking at my other games first.

[Talitha]

Gaspar - I disagree that DGB or SL would have used that roleclaim. There was no advantage to be gained for them to claim Innocent Fresn--- at the point when we did mass claim. I do agree that IH was looking pretty innocent with his early claim, but it did not clear him and now we're getting to the point that we are running out of people who could be scum. Everyone has points in their favour as to why we don't think it's them, but the fact remains, it's one of us. If we're lynching purely on behaviour and not on claim, IH would be the runaway winner by now, no?

I propose that I kill IH, then if the game isn't over DP and I will most likely vote for each other and you'll be the decider. Quite ironic that someone who is going to win

anyway

would be trusted with the deciding vote

But I can't see you being scum and DP being town.. you could so easily have hammered him just like you promised to do and still have been acting in keeping with your claim.

So from where I'm sitting, if it's not IH, it's DP... And out of the two of them, I have to pick IH as much more likely scum.

So, I am going to kill IH (after waiting for your re-read) to make sure he dies today. If IH is not scum then DP deserves to win and I will present myself meekly for the inevitable lynching.

[Gaspar]

I'm doing IH first, because figuring him out seems to be the most urgent task at hand here.



Starting with Oman's posts (since he preceeded IH)... the only thing I notice is actually somewhat significant:

Adele : I get an early townie vibe due to her discussion of dice tags and its resulting look at LML. While I'm not saying that LML is scum, I am saying I agree with her analysis within her posts and think them to be town.

The metascummy argument also makes me think town as she aknowledges it is "making a big deal out of it" (which it is). It severly weakens it to the point that no-one is going to be lynched on that argument. I don't see scum weakening themselves.

However Adele sticks to this chat on random voting rather than looking at the real issues. Says in post 181 "Things are random at this stage" which I think we're way past.

And... what game do you think we're playing? Wouldn't giving people your login so they can access your account and see your role pm allow them to see your motivations without wild guesses?
Are you gonna do it? No, because it's against the rule.
Why is it against the rules? Because it's anti-game.

Fairly stretchy. Malking motivations known are anti-game. But MoS isn't letting us know his motivations, he's putting forward what his motivations are, and its up to us to detect if its a lie or not. You're comparing his word (which is flimsy in a game) with irrefutable evidence.

I disagree with her stance on the "Yay thesp" issue, saying that its paranoia. I think thesp could be scum, if only because he's playing in the game, and we know there are scum here.

I don't get town or scum from Adel, gun-to-head I'd say town right now.

He buffs her as being protown, but intentionally fence-sits, but says that if he were forced to choose one, he'd say town. This is a scumbuddy-like interaction. You want to slide people away from your buddy, but you don't want to outright defend them in case things go haywire.

IH replaces in and takes the opposite stance, putting up walls between himself and Adele in his first post, here. Noteworthy at the end of his post, his overall assessment:

Town-Pooky, Skruffs, Talitha, Thesp, Zindy, CES, DP, MGM

Neutral-Tamuz, Logictus, MoS, PWS

Vote:Jeep/Jeeps replacement, LoudMouthLee, Adele, Xyzzy, Foolinc, Cubsfan4ever, VitR, PWS, Logictus, MoS, Tamuz

Thesp/Zindie town, Adele third highest in condorcet.

Moves to LmL (assorted reasons), then to Cubsfan (for posting minimum).

This post is interesting. He FoSes Skruffs because of Skruffs' metaing on Jeep, but states that he prefers a BM (or LmL) lynch anyway. Remember that BM replaced Jeep. I do see some 'playing both sides of the issue' here.

I'm not seeing much out of the ordinary for IH on D2. He comments a lot on random debates/discussions between other people, which is consistent with what I'm used to seeing from IH. The only thing I've noticed so far is this:

Though in regards to his argument with Zindy.....

BM continues to PHAIL

...light defense of Zindie, after BM got killed N1.

I have to admit, IH pretty much hit the nail on the head when it came to outing LmL. He harped on what was probably one of the most legitimate points against LmL in this post, and he was dead accurate.

Interesting that IH talks more about disliking LmL here, but leaves him off of his own Condorcet vote.

Whoa!

Doubly

interesting that IH harps on CES here for doing the exact same thing.

Something just occurred to me. IH spent a noticeable amount of time wondering why no "Count of Monte Cristo" counterclaimed Cubsfan. Obviously, in retrospect, we know why (Dantes was an NPC, and there was no other "Count of Monte Cristo" role in the game). But what just struck me is this quote:

Ok, would you please stop saying I have FoSed any claims of the main character? I said I would be wary because there was no counterclaims of the count of monte cristo.

So, if a player claimed count of monte cristo, and turned out to not be him, why would you believe that claim from a later player Skruffs? Why would they not have counterclaimed?

This seems like it could be a sneaky way of fishing for role information. IH is basically saying "I want the Count to come out now because if they don't and they claim later, I won't believe them."
Instead of absorbing the information and dealing with it if and when a Count claim did come, he wanted answers immediately, and he wanted to know how people would respond to future Count claims.


...and the claim:

Well, my theory is shot I believe.

Wanna know why I thought my theory was mostly correct? Because I don't have a rolename. My PM is almost an exact carbon copy of the one in one of the mod's first post.

I didn't even realize it until later yesterday after MGM claimed, and I double checked with my mod my rolename.

._. Innocent Fresnoite.

Every time I read this, it still

feels

genuine to me. Beyond what I've said, I don't think I can explain any better why this is the case. I guess you have to chalk it up to gut instinct.


Ugh. I didn't realize how much IH took this whole "Lace" thing and ran away with it. I count five posts that address the LmL issue, four of which mention the "lace" issue directly. One quick note -- CES said this:

Not to mention that that assumption totally doesn't jive with the xyzzy kill. I don't really care that LmL used LACE and XYZZY. FoS: whoever brought it up. You wasted our time with your petty suspicions. Die, person whose identity I'm too lazy to look up!

...but I'd expect the people who rolled with it to be more suspicious. Bringing it up is fairly "meh." The ones who turned it into a huge debacle are the ones I'd look at. To an extent, IH does fit this category.

grr arg. I'd forgotten about this Tally/IH debate at the startof D3, where Tally first pitched the "Innocent Fresnonian" safeclaim theory. I'm going to go back and do this separately, because it involves deep interaction with three living players (IH, Tally, and myself).
----As DP is the one player who was not directly involved in that debate, I'd definitely like him to look over those posts and give me an impression as well. (For reference -- Posts 1368-1376 seem to encompass that discussion.)----

REALLY

interesting MrBuddyLee-IH interaction. Starts with 1416 and continues from there. What I find most interesting is that nothing is resolved by it. MBL appears to show curiosity in IH's behavior, but doens't follow up. IH fires back, but nothing comes of it. This does feel a little bit liek distancing to me.

Ah yes, IH's theory on who may have killed Logic and conditions under which Foolinc may have been scum. Even though I disagreed with it pretty staunchly, I do feel that his posts during this time were fairly genuine.

This post feels genuine as well.

Another interesting note. IH defends Zindie sporatically (mostly on the "Zindie is letting all of his games slip right now" -- which was definitely true), but at the end of the day slaps up a vote on Zindie because he didn't like the PookyWagon... as seen here.
While potentially legitimate, this could easily be a "safe vote" at the end of the day. If Zindie gets lynched, he looks like a champ. If not, his vote doesn't really do any harm, as Pooky still gets mislynched instead.

I also find it interesting that at the start of yesterday, when Sarc proposes Zindaras/Gaspar, IH counters with "Sarc/Gaspar" trying to get Zindie mislynched. Another distinct conneciton possible here.



In all, I have mixed feelings. There's one big thing that worries me about this situation, but I am hesitant to reveal it at this time. I want to extract more information from all three of you first.

DP, I'd like you to look over that debate in the aftermath of VitR's death. I'd also like you to explain more clearly exactly

why

you feel IH is scum.

Tally, I would also like you to elaborate on why you feel IH is scum.

I want neither of you to use process of elimination in doing so. Focus on IH's behaviors, not the other players'.


I'll get to other relevant re-reads later. This took like an hour and a half, and I'm wiped out.

[Gaspar]

EBWOP: And, IH, I just want you to post anything of substantial content. Since your "Gaspar/Sarc" analysis, you've not really done anything noteworthy. If you continue to be noncontributive at such a critical stage in the game, I will very strongly consider the possibility that you are scum trying to sneak through the shadows for a win.

[Gaspar]

Gah, I should have preivewed.

I propose that I kill IH, then if the game isn't over DP and I will most likely vote for each other and you'll be the decider. Quite ironic that someone who is going to win anyway would be trusted with the deciding vote

Please, please,

PLEASE

don't do this at least until I've made my analyses and gotten the answers I seek. There doesn't seem to be any major rush -- once we hit the one week mark, we'll decide within a day or two where that kill is going, unless we come to a consensus sooner than that.

[Talitha]

Alright. Seeing as you want to put the effort in, and are doing a good job, I'll wait. Your sum-up of IH looks very good. I just don't have the time to do an analysis like you have right now. I am leaving town for the night in a couple of hours, and when I get back it's back to work.

You say not to use process of elimination, but from where I am sitting the evidence via process of elimination is so strong that it's all I need.

I can understand why you rate me as possible scum, but can't really understand why DP is higher on your list than IH. Maybe it's just me but I have felt he is town all game and nothing in 81 pages has made me pause to doubt that assumption. On the other hand, I am satisfied that IH *could* be scum. The pieces can be made to fit that theory. If I have time to do some analysis it will be on DP, and try and find/present the evidence that he is town. Because, elimination is how I play end-games... I can't help it!

[IH]

Meh I'm sorry guys, I will continue to be useless until Tuesday I'm afraid. Breezing over some of your points GlorkPod, I will note that one or two things (like the fishing thing) you basically thought I was doing it on accident. What now?

Meh the only thing I've gotten is LML, as I've been wrong a good bit lately.

Talitha why have you cleared DP again? Because I COULD be scum, you're going to daykill me? I would prefer you daykill DP personally, as there are so many links to him from EVERYONE.

Ah just noticed Setael is missing. Meh, thats kind of alarming in regards to LML's lynch scene, but I'm still unsure how much stock can be put into info from the mod.

[Dragon Phoenix]

grr arg. I'd forgotten about this Tally/IH debate at the startof D3, where Tally first pitched the "Innocent Fresnonian" safeclaim theory. I'm going to go back and do this separately, because it involves deep interaction with three living players (IH, Tally, and myself).
----As DP is the one player who was not directly involved in that debate, I'd definitely like him to look over those posts and give me an impression as well. (For reference -- Posts 1368-1376 seem to encompass that discussion.)----

SNIP

DP, I'd like you to look over that debate in the aftermath of VitR's death. I'd also like you to explain more clearly exactly

why

you feel IH is scum.

Will do. I had planned to put some time in this game today given the fact that we have rain forcast, but just now the wife got the bright idea to go to a museum instead. I'll try to squeeze it in later.

I can't say that I feel that IH is scum by the way. It is just a matter of elimination. The stories of Gaspar and Setael check out pretty well with the things that have happened and I see neither as scum. So it is between Talitha and IH for me. I will also try to analyse why I think IH is the more likely one (probably the voting yesterday - I'll check).

[Dragon Phoenix]

OK, I have been delayed, but I did read that sequence three times now and somehow it does not sink in and nothing comes to mind. It does not help that I am fucking tired (apart from work, my "job" as a mod for a Flickr site is costing me more than an hour intensive work a night). I will give it one more shot tomorrow.

Wrt to why I think Talitha is less liekly scum than IH: she was on SilentLee pretty much all of yesterday. IH chose me instead. And in retrospect the wording of his post 1955 looks very much like trying to save SL. Try that post out for size, and see how you look at it now.

[Gaspar]

Feh. I haven't had a chance to touch this thread since my last set of posts. Tally, ultimately the kill is yours to make and if you think we're holding up the game, you're free to make it. I'm still hoping to get another crack at things around midweek.

[IH]

I made you a post, but I eated it.

I might make you another one, but I might also have eated it.

Note:I'm at the hospital atm, so I may have time to post, idling the hours away.

[Talitha]

I wanted to make the kill early enough in the day so that if I'm wrong then we still have enough time to adequately argue the lynch. So yeah, I'll do the kill in my next post. Any last words from IH or on his behalf?

[IH]

I have none to speak on my behalf, because it seems you are not scumhunting, but going through the process of elimination.

... someone try to vote Setael, and see if she can be voted. I'm not bothering because if I'm killed, then my vote will be gone in the votecount.

[Talitha]

Daykill: IH

[Mr. Grey]

Finish Him

Talitha feels good. Better than she was before. Better, stronger, faster.

After some consideration, she gives IH a look much like a lion stalking its prey. Dragon Phoenix and Gaspar back away, after seeing what happened to DrippingGoofball the previous day. IH lets out a sound:

"Eep."

He backs away, but it is an enclosed courtyard and there is nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

It is over quickly. IH's broken body lies on the ground as Talitha stands over him, glowing with the joy of the kill...

---

IH (Innocent Fresnoite, Innocent) has been killed. With 3 remaining, it is now 2 to lynch.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Four left including one mafia one would presume.

No lynch anyone? Force the scum to eliminate one candidate and thus make the choice a bit easier?

[Talitha]

What makes you think Seteal is still part of the game?