California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Gaspar]

I understand your logic. I really do.

My whole point is that the evidence from the night actions, to date, does not support there being another Mafia (or a second SK). And any halfway decent Vig would *NOT* have killed a claimed Mason. So while I understand how your logic would make sense IF FOOLINC WERE SCUM, I argue that the EVIDENCE FROM THE GAME'S NIGHT ACTIONS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A SECOND KILL"GROUP" OUT THERE.


Do you think that there's a second killing group? Why or why not? If so, what nature do you think the killing group is (Mafia, SK, Vig, Other)?

[IH]

Then take what you will from my logic. If you believe my logic, then you believe one of four things.

Fool is town
Fool is being bussed
Fool is a traitor
Fool is with stupid scum

If there is a second killing group..... it's a tossup, but I would guess further that they could be a restricted killing group (see Freaktown IV, where Scum group A could only kill on even nights and Scum group B could only kill on odd nights) thought I'm personally unsure how well that would hold up.

Atm though, my mind is drawn to the possibility of LML being in a group.

I'll try to post something other than speculation about this sometime soon.

[Gaspar]

Then take what you will from my logic. If you believe my logic, then you believe one of four things.

Fool is town
Fool is being bussed
Fool is a traitor
Fool is with stupid scum

If there is a second killing group..... it's a tossup, but I would guess further that they could be a restricted killing group (see Freaktown IV, where Scum group A could only kill on even nights and Scum group B could only kill on odd nights) thought I'm personally unsure how well that would hold up.

Atm though, my mind is drawn to the possibility of LML being in a group.

I'll try to post something other than speculation about this sometime soon.

Yes, note that Foolinc is in the bottom group of my Condorcet. I think the conclusion I've ultimately reached is fairly obvious. The only other one I'd be willing to give weight to is him being a Traitor. But I find it more likely that scums are raising a stink and trying to get us to ring up Fool just short of LyLo.


Scumgroups with alternating kills doesn't make much sense to me. In fact, I think the non-Parisian group would be *MORE* likely to kill Foolinc if that were the case. Plus, it doesn't sound like a very mithy thing to do.

[IH]

IH: post 1573: Logisticus killed by a vig? O rly?

I am an angry guy with glasses. Phear me >= |

Talitha whatever happened to you going through your case on me again?

I am not giving foolinc a free ride, but I do think it is too soon to string up our only claimed doctor. Especially since there are in my opinion better candidates.

I would not put it past mith to exclude a pro-town doctor altogether. But I am not willing to put my money on that right now.

This post feels scummy.

I think if we all come together on a DP lynch, we'll hit scum. His last post telling us "we're handing the game to scum on a silver platter" just sounds like something scum would say to sound town.

Maybe anyone who thinks I'm wrong about DP and thinks he's town tell me why you think he's town. Otherwise vote him.

This post feels scummier. It's the "If we all come together" part that does it.

Also-
@Glorkspar-If you'd look at my condorcet, I'm actually unsure if this says anything about Foolinc's alignment atm, but it should be noted for when his alignment inevitably shows up. Nobody seems to notice that I said if, and didn't draw any alignment conclusions from it, they just say "OH EM GEE, YOU THINK THERES A VIG, WHAI?"

IH SMASH!

[Talitha]

IH: The way Gaspar was going on about it, plus one post that I found of Oman's, made me feel you are likely town.

I am going to see if I can resume my re-read (I didn't get very far through, bah) tonight after dinner.

[Talitha]

And I don't like the way that Pooky's now saying that we're "exactly one day away" from lynch-wrong-lose, yet just a couple of posts earlier he said that foolinc might be scum. And I don't like how he didn't address the foolinc thing at all in his most recent post. In fact that post looks like a total side-step.

[Silent Lee]

Observations of Setael. DP to follow.

Setael (post subject 8 by user):

718 thesp makes Gaspar look town with “Your defense of CES is noted.”

I'm not crazy about this. The way he phrases it implies he thinks this is a tie between Thesp and Gaspar by the former making the latter "look town," and I realize from Setael's perspective (if he's town) Thesp is calling attention to Gaspar defending a townie (and by implication making Gaspar look more townish for it); but the rest of us don't have Setael's perspective and CES is by no stretch confirmed town. This feels a little, idunno, manipulative may be the best word for it, of Setael.

Post 345 – If IH is scum, Pooky probably isn’t. “Is anyone else having a deep unsettling suspicion of IH right now?” doesn’t look like bussing.

If I'm right about IH, this [post 936] is likely distancing from Pooky.

Only one of these can be true.

I note that Talitha and Setael seemed to be trying to drive a foolinc bandwagon in the series of posts starting at 1553. Talitha suggests the doc was recruited by the mafia, an odd supposition especially as she indicates that this possibilty could be flavor-driven but she doesn't know any of the flavor that might be involved, and also asks why he's been using his secret word every day. Um, duh? Setael immediately leaps onto a foolinc vote. Foolinc answered Talitha with snark, and Setael treated the "superstition" one-liner literally. Since the snarl was extremely obviously so, this looks like a case of throwing at the wall in hopes of adhesion.
Then when it seems clear no one is biting, and Gaspar reminds Logic that hes omitted the possibility of a mafia roleblocker as explanation for why the scum have seemed willing to go for obvious doc-protect targets, Setael suddenly comes up with a reason to believe logicticus: the lack of a counterclaim, and the fact that the real doc (if any) seems to have not protected logicticus anyway. (Actually, if the real doc didn't protect logicticus anyway, that obviates the need to assume a mafia roleblocker anyway, doesn't it? So why is Setael indicating both true in this post?) Here IH tried once more to drum up support for the foolinc wagon -- COMPLETELY IGNORING the discussion that had just gone on with Gaspar and Setael -- and then Zin said he believed foolinc, full stop.

I find this interesting, because Setael has been on after IH for like the whole game and has virtually ignored Zin for nearly as long. I'm going to need to chew on this fo a bit until I am satisfied with how the sets intersect.

I just noticed that Tamuz, like xyzzy, was myocardially infarcted in the death list. Perhaps there were two pairs of lovers, since Tamuz's scene makes it clear his death was not the work of any anti-town poisoner? If so, what are the implications for whether Lee was part of a scumgroup vs. working alone?

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

6 to lynch.

Zindaras: 3 (Gaspar, PookyTheMagicalBear, Sarcastro)
Dragon Phoenix: 1 (Setael)
foolinc: 1 (Talitha)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (foolinc)
Sarcastro: 1 (Dragon Phoenix)
Setael: 1 (IH)

Current Condorcet Winner:

None. Current Smith Set: Dragon Phoenix, Gaspar, IH, PookyTheMagicalBear, Sarcastro, Setael, Silent Lee/the silent speaker, Talitha, Zindaras

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

[Talitha]

It is slowly dawning on me that the thing that is peculiar to this game is that the scum don't even need to join bandwagons in order to get townies lynched! With the deadlines and condorcet lynches the most they have to do is manipulate the condorcet... and that probably hasn't even been necessary much. If it wasn't for the posting requirements this game would be every scum's dream.

So what this means is that we aint gonna catch the scum by looking at bandwagons. The foolinc bandwagon mentioned above is a red herring (FOS Silent Lee) because the scum don't really care which townie gets lynched. And make no mistake, one of us townies is very probably going to be lynched today. (I am pessimistic.)

There's no way I'm going to get my re-read finished by the end of this game day. (i have concentration and attention span issues.. send ritalin...) However right now I'm thinking the three are Pooky, Gaspar and Silent Lee... and if there's a 4th, it's foolinc.

I also rate Zindaras as an unknown quantity, not completely writing him off as a scum possibility. But the fact that Pooks and Gaspar wanna lynch him today? That gives him the benefit of the doubt with me

Sarcastro, who was Dani, who was MOS... if you read Day 1, it looks like the people I am now suspicious of (Pooky, Adele) would have been quite prepared to lynch MOS.. made me feel better (but not completely convinced) about Sarc being town.

Foolinc. I had been thinking to myself that if foolinc is town, then why are no scum trying to bandwagon him??? I have recently realised, they don't need to.

Pooky gets number 1 spot, because he's the only one of my top 3 who has another vote.

unvote
vote: Pooky

, Gaspar, Silent Lee, Foolinc, Sarcastro, Zindaras, IH, Setael, Dragon Phoenix

[Talitha]

Just so I'm not accused of making up stuff - apart from my usual reasons of gut instinct, these posts contain my reasons for why these 3 are scum from reading the early thread:

Gaspar (was PWS)
- Thesp's post 160 (Seems very aware of PWS.. finds him suspicious but is hazy about it.. like he knows PWS is scum, but doesnt really want to know).
- post 223 ("There's no info to gain from this..you know this" - Why would there be no info to be gained from pressuring someone?)
- post 263 (Sort of implies MOS is town.. doesn't seem to consider the MOS=scum possibility!)

Silent Lee
- post 256 (too much emphasis on meta-game, dice-rolls, etc for this far in. Seems reluctant to stick neck out and discuss players rather than game mechanisms.

Also

- check out Thesp on her condorcet. She hadn't mentioned Thesp at all. Thesp hadn't IMO done anything worthy of being there. Seems like he was put there just so that there was a scum buddy on the condorcet list.)

Pooky
- I'm mainly suspicious of Pooky's more recent contributions as mentioned in my previous few posts.
- post 202 seemed a bit over the top jumping on Skruffs for the "Yay Thesp"

[Dragon Phoenix]

I would obviously prefer a Sarcastro or Setael lynch, but I can live with a Pooky bandwagon. If that is the way the wind will blow today, I will hop on.

If we were no already this far in the game, I would gladly lynch any of the non-voters. If you are scum, great job to get away with it. If you are town, you suck.

[Setael]

@IH, can you tell us what you think of DP please?

@DP: Can you give any reasons for thinking I'm scum that aren't OMGUS?

[Gaspar]

Just so I'm not accused of making up stuff - apart from my usual reasons of gut instinct, these posts contain my reasons for why these 3 are scum from reading the early thread:

Gaspar (was PWS)
- Thesp's post 160 (Seems very aware of PWS.. finds him suspicious but is hazy about it.. like he knows PWS is scum, but doesnt really want to know).
- post 223 ("There's no info to gain from this..you know this" - Why would there be no info to be gained from pressuring someone?)
- post 263 (Sort of implies MOS is town.. doesn't seem to consider the MOS=scum possibility!)

1) I can't do much about Thesp's play. There are a number of players that he didn't give a lot of attention to.
2) If you bothered to look at context, you would know why. MoS starts of literally

every single game

with a random vote. Attacking him for demonstrating the randomness of his vote obviously wasn't something that PWS found helpful. (Note that Pooky gave a following explanation, which prompted PWS's 263.)
3) I don't see how there's an assumption that MoS is town. What I'm seeing is PWS saying "Pooky, I don't see how you as town would vote somebody to see if people jump on." Where is the "MoS = Town" assumption exactly?


Actually, a bit more on Point 1.... People who Thesp commented on but did not directly attack during his lifetime:
Skruffs (protown)
Glork (unknown -- alive)
Pooky (unknown -- alive)
cubsfan (protown)
Adele/MBL/TSS (unknown -- alive)
foolinc (unknown -- alive)
IH (unknown -- alive)

---Actually, what I find interesting is this quote

Hmm, looks like Glork/Gaspar beats me to most of the points/thoughts I'm making here.

...which looks more like an ass-kissing job than a scumbuddy interaction. (Furhter notable given he lauded my performance after our most recent game together, Face-To-Face. I could easily see him trying to get on my good side.) Thoughts, people?---

(continuing with the list...)
odd banter with CES (unknown -- alive) after Thesp said his "theory" regarding the game was blown out of the water


Basically what I'm getting out of Thesp is that, other than gunning hard for a couple of select players, he never really

did

anything to go after

anyone

. He mentions just about everyone in passing, but he only explicitly goes after LmL, Mgm briefly, and then IH and MoS/Dani/nowSarc.

In fact, Tally, I think he mentioned or interacted with you less than just about anybody. Literally the

ONLY

interactions are where he quotes you and says you win here and indirectly defends you here and here (note also more "let me buddy-buddy up to Glork" behavior in this post as well) while attacking DaniBanani.

If you're going to accuse me of being Thesp's scumbuddy based on Thesp's behavior, you're going to have to be a hell of a lot more explicit than a mere one-liner.

[Gaspar]

EBWOP:

(note also more "let me buddy-buddy up to Glork" behavior in this post as well)

Actually, looking at context, I'm the one who prompted that by bantering with Thesp.

Brings up another odd point, though. One of Tally's points against PWS is that she believes he assumed/knew MoS was town. When I called Thesp "imperfect" for his stance on Dani (Post 837), wouldn't that imply belief/assumption/"knowing" that Thesp was protown (as opposed to "you're scum going after Dani")? Obviously he wasn't.

[Gaspar]

Oh snaps. Glork is on a roll now. I just noticed something else that's convinced me that a vote change is necessary. Let's look at literally every single one of

Tally's

mentionings of

Thesp

while the dirty scumbaggo was alive. Ready? Go!


Mentioning #1 -- Tally makes a point to go over Thesp's posts later and tacks him to the end of her Condorcet. Interestingly enough, the post in which she implies a Thesp/PWS connection, Thesp says the same thing to PWS.
Matthew 7:5 comes to mind here.

Mentioning #2 -- Tally mentions Thesp in passing while defending herself against Dani.

Mentioning #3 -- Tally defends Thesp against Dani. Double-team gogogo!

Mentioning #4 -- Thesp is still sitting lazily at the bottom of her Condorcet, which comes after another "I need to look over some players" comment. Also noteworthy (mostly because I'm an egocentric bastard) that she sheeped on to Foolinc following my reasoning.

Mentio... no wait, that was it. The next time she mentions Thesp is after he's dead.



I think Tally's got a few gaping holes in her current situation. She picked out a single quote from Thesp to try to show a "Thesp knows PWS is scum but doesn't want to admit it" feel, yet their interactions have been no better. In fact, the only capacity in which they've existed was in a situation that absolutely

screams

scumbuddy: Help each other out and build a case against another player, but otherwise ignore one another so as not to leave trails.

Now, how does this affect my opinion of everyone else? If Tally is scum (increasingly likely), then Zindie is probably scum. She's using her suspicions of Pooky/Gaspar as justification to keep Zindie lower on her list. If one (or both) of us died as scum, she'd have nothing, and her only option would be to hammer away at somebody while she went down in flames. Zindaras fits perfectly into that "other option" slot, where you don't want to go after them, but you want to make it seem like you were willing to go after them while not actually putting any real pressure on them.

I'd currently put DP as the third scumbaggo. Unless I'm mistaken, both DP/Zindie and DP/Tally interactions have been fairly scarce. DP is picking up a little heat, courtesy of Saetel and myself, and now he's mysteriously at the bottom of Tally's list. This one's a bit up-in-the-air right now, though. I'm less certain of it than I am of Tally and Zindie.

I'm going to leave my vote on Zindaras for a few reasons... he's got votes on him, he's suspicious in his own right for his blatant fence-sitting yesterday, and it just makes sense to me in relation to everything that's going on right now.

Unvote
Vote: Zindaras

, Talitha, DragonPhoenix, SilentLee, [foolinc, IH, Pooky, Sarcastro, Setael], No Lynch, Gaspar

[Dragon Phoenix]

@DP: Can you give any reasons for thinking I'm scum that aren't OMGUS?

Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

What are you talking about Tally? When I listed the people that I was suspicious of, I listed them in order of how strongly I felt about them being scum, I do think we are 1 day from LyLo and that's why my vote is on Zindie and not Foolinc. I have no idea what you think I am trying to "side-step" but when I put up a list of suspicion, I will plant my vote on the top suspect on my list.

What do you want me to address about Foolinc? It's so close to LyLo that any doctor counterclaims should've happened by now, so in the absence of them I'm somewhat forced to give him the benefit of the doubt over the others that I feel strongly are scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Oh now I see what you're saying, that thing about Foolinc being recruited into a 4 group. I wouldn't think that is very likely because I haven't seen mith use a group of 5 in any of his large theme games, the largest he's ever used is a group of 4, in Verbose II he had a group of 3 and a traitor.

Basically I don't think lynching Foolinc on the premises you've pointed out which I feel are very shaky to begin with.

[Setael]

Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.

What I meant was that you had not expressed suspicion of me/my predecessor until I accused you of being scum. Can you please point out where you stated your suspicion of CES?

[Sarcastro]

Sorry, I've been busy and mostly ignoring the site lately (funnily enough, I tend to post more when I have more school-related things to do).

My Thespvestigation was not very productive. However, besides the thing about Zindaras, I think one could make a case for Thesp being scum with Foolinc. He expresses mild suspicion of Foolinc for several isolated reasons, but never actually turns anything into a case against Foolinc. He also keep Foolinc towards the middle of his Condorcet lists. On the flip side, he never really says much about CES at all, and yet CES is always near the top of his Condorcet lists.

I'm not really sure what either of these mean, since I've never played with Thesp before (or if I have, I've forgotten). Feel free to analyse them as you wish.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.

What I meant was that you had not expressed suspicion of me/my predecessor until I accused you of being scum. Can you please point out where you stated your suspicion of CES?

Do you even read my posts? I quoted the post number in mine. And that was long before you even joined the game.

[Zindaras]

So, tell me, how did I suddenly get turned into vote leader? All I can see is that Sarc decided I was a meaniepants who's not allowed to try to prevent a no lynch, Pooky decided I'm inactive scum, while I've been inactive all across the site for ages, and Glork decided that I'm sitting the fence, which is also a quite stupid suggestion, since I made my decision before we got a lynch. You want fence-sitting? Here. Go ahead. I posted an analysis 30 minutes

after

a lynch (it was a Nightless game) because I didn't want to rush my decision. You can call it bad play, you can call it whatever you want, but I make my decisions when I feel they are best taken, not when you do.

[Sarcastro]

Well, you are a meaniepants, but that's not why I'm voting for you. I'm voting for you because Pooky told me to. And also because you seem like a reasonable candidate based on Thesp's actions toward you (or lack thereof).

[IH]

I actually may move my vote to Zindie soon, if only because I feel like we need a natural lynch. Leaving it up to a maybe for condorcet won't cut it.

Setael, I am unsure about DP, but I do know that he's been posting placeholder posts the most out of anyone. I'm actually unsure if this signifies anything other than a busy DP, but it is something to note.

I have already listed my views on you and him being possible scum.

I demand a Foolinc post.

[foolinc]

I didn't say vig.... someone else said vig.

I said another killing group.

Ok, once more. Last time.

Let's assume Fool is scum and in contact with his buddies. Surely, they know that the majority of the town believes Log's claim. They know that Fool has claimed doctor, and that he will be expected to protect, right? So, if Fool is actually NOT a doctor (or is a scum doctor) why would they implicate their own member?

On second thought there are other possibilities, though I'm unsure how much more likely they are. Like Fool is a traitor, that there are scum that didn't think it through, or there are scum that are trying to get their on buddy lynched by way of bussing.

If neither of those three are true, then it means that either there is A.Another killing group (Second SK, Vig, second Scumgroup, etc etc) B.Fool is town who seriously didn't protect logictus last night.

Further more, Foolinc HAS to be Parisian mafia for any of this to make sense, since if he's part of a second group, then the Parisian could have done the kill. I repeat. Only for this to MAKE SENSE.

If Foolinc does turn up scum though (especially doc scum), I would say that Zindy is his partner. Why? Because he protected Zindy. I have a feeling, from what I would do as a scum doc, that he is telling the truth of his target, mostly from fear of a tracker or something of the like. Therefore, if he is indeed protecting a buddy last night from some type of kill, then that would be Zindaras.

Understand?

I'm a normal townie doctor who did not protect logictus. That's it. Nothing more. However, I am going to note that you are trying to connect me with Zindy with this "what if I was scum post."

I'd also like you to explain what makes you think there is the 3rd killing group?