California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Gaspar]

I was really hoping that Setael would come back after IH died, because I had this great plan all set up if she returned during the day. How annoying.

I honestly have no idea which one of you two I would vote right now. Literally every time I come back to look at this game, I find myself switching positions. Over the weekend, I was leaning towards thinking it was DP, because I felt that he was doing little more than popping in to offer a consneting opinion (to paraphrase: "I agree that Setael is the #1 suspect" to "I also have IH as my top choice") and I was thinking that scums would want to try to stay on somebody's good side -- with Tally getting a daykill, I'm sure that if DP is scum, he would want to avoid antagonizing Tally if possible.

But there's still DP's role/claim, and if I think about things from a TallyScum perspective, pre-empting the "obvious" suspicions makes a lot of sense. Regardless of which one of you is scum, your suspicions would probably coincide -- so that throws out my earlier thinking and would lead me back to Tally.

I think the game will probably be determined by looking at each of your early-game play, rather than your recent play.



Preview Edit: I'm not sure how I feel about No Lynch since Setael didn't come back yet. The really big thing that concerns me is that there is no timetable whatsoever for Setael's return. If she comes back before/during night, she probably gets killed herself and we end up in the same situation. If she isn't to come back until after night (or at all), then the game may very well be over before her return is triggered. Also, if she's gone during night, would she have a chance to hand out a gift? Probably not -- but that's something we could have asked her about if she had returned.

I do not feel that Setael's situation is the same as Grey's one, because if you look at the playerlist, she is no longer listed as being a living player --but she is listed as

missing

, which has its own category now. I'm a little irked that Tally killed IH without letting one of us attempt to vote Setael. I'm half-tempted to do it myself, because if the scum tries to quick-hammer, either they out themselves or I win. But I know that could be a pretty big dick move to whichever townie remains if she can in fact get lynched.

[Talitha]

It's 2 votes to lynch, we can't vote for Seteal. But "irked"? Sheesh. Just how long did you want me to wait? We needed plenty of time post-day-kill if this situation eventuated.

Well I have to think it's DP now... Can't see Gaspar being scum. Will have to try and find the time to look for evidence before deadline.

[Talitha]

Dammit, I really need to re-look at my assumptions about Gaspar too. Why did IH have to be town? Why was he playing like that?

[Gaspar]

Just putting out thoughts as they come up...

This seems to be a risk/reward issue here. The risk is obviously that the town loses the game (or for me, that a scenario pops up where I become the "correct" lynch/kill target). To run through scenarios:

Supposing we No Lynch today:

• If Setael does not return at all, the mafiascum kills somebody and wins. Especially dangerous for me if Tally is the last scum, because if DP could potentially dodge her kill, she'd be forced to kill
  me
  , and I'd lose.
• If Setael returns at twilight/start-of-night, she presumably gets to use her ability again. This assumes that she doesn't have to live
  through
  the night to actually sell the product during the day, which is something that genuinely concerns me. I don't remember if Sarc or I mentioned it, but the offer came after daybreak, and we were given a timetable to decide whether or not to accept Setael's gift. I worry that, even if Setael comes back for the night phase, if she is simply killed off she would have nothing to accept.
• There is also the changing nature of Setael's ability. I'm not convinced that it's truly 'random,' but the two abilities given (daykill, then daykill + disappearance) have an escalating nature. Would Set disappear again if the ability was accepted? Would she die? We obviously don't know.
• If Setael is scum, I think we lose no matter what. Disappearing (so as not to become a possible kill target) would be an interesting way of getting around the whole "I'm giving the town a vig" mechanic. But the way I see it, if Set is scum, it doesn't matter what we do -- if we NL, she probably returns and kills somebody. If we lynch, she probably returns and kills somebody. So this isn't really a possibility worth dwelling upon.
• Now, if Set returns
  during the day tomorrow
  we'd be in the same sort of situation that we're in now, with 4ish people alive.

(Another preview edit: Tally, like IH said, it was worth seeing if Setael could be voted. With 4 alive and 3 to lynch, that possibility could have been tested. With 3 alive and 2 to lynch, it's possible that the scum quick-hammers if they feel she can be voted -- or if they wait for a VC from Grey and we find out that she can be voted.)

Tags removed. - Mod.

[Talitha]

I agree, but it was coming from the person I thought was scum and to me it looked like a stalling tactic. I was concerned about the time being wasted too if I were wrong. Just don't blame me when we were ALL guilty of not testing for it in good time, that's all I'm saying. [/whine]

[Talitha]

What about just including her in the condorcet?

Vote: DP, Seteal

[Talitha]

I don't think Set is scum, btw. It's one of you two.

Gotta go to work..

[Gaspar]

*shrug*

I think it's a possibility, but as I just indicated, if she's scum it doesn't matter because she's almost guaranteed to win. Thus, the only correct way to play is as though she's not -- that way, we can play optimally assuming she's town (aka, assuming we don't autolose). The notion of entertaining SetScum is pointless. So yeah, I'm focusing on "TallyScum" or "DPScum" possibilities.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Setael is listed as missing (not dead), but you are right, we canot automatically assume she will return tomorrow.

On the other hand, if she is the remaining scum, and we lynch one of us and she does return during the night, we have handed her the game on a golden platter.

Let me try to see whether we can vote for her. Please do not follow with votes until we had a vote count.

Vote Setael

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

2 to lynch.

(None)

[Dragon Phoenix]

Unvote Setael

[Dragon Phoenix]

The first thing we need to make a decision on then is whether we think it is likely that Setael will be returning to the game.

IF she returns, no lynch is IMO the only correct play. Any lynch today would at best make no difference and at worst hand the play to Setael if she is scum.

IF she does not return, no lynch loses the game to the last scum immediately.

I have seen little or nothing to change my opinion about the three others:

Setael: scummy as hell, but can't fit it in with the gift giving - unless she HAS TO do that every time, in which case she still could be scum.

Gaspar: their claim/story totally fits what has happened so far, with the possible exception of a lack of hammering - but then again, why would a scumgaspar not hammer in such a situation to beef up their claim?

Talitha: has been on my "less likely scum" list most of the game, her attack on the claimed Gaspar made me doubt, her chasing for a scum lynch yesterday on the other hand smacks of course of town.

The non-lynchability of Setael makes me lean towards her not coming back. And that means I am leaning to a Talitha lynch right now.

[Talitha]

I agree with what Gaspar said that we have to play as if she's not coming back. It would be lunacy to no-lynch today, IMO. Didn't Setael say that CES chose not to give a gift some nights? I am pretty sure she could have chosen not to give the gifts to Sarc and myself. The only explanation that fits with her being scum is that she was hoping her night action might kill.

Just skimming over the last few pages, I am pretty sure I'll vote for DP today.
The first thing that stood out as I skimmed was when I asked Gaspar who he thought were the three remaining scum. He listed Zindaras, DP and Silent Lee. Well, he was right about the other two...

At that point where the three scum were alive I believe the scum were only 1 mislynch away from victory.

Note to self

: look at the voting that day a little closer, when I'm not tired.

The other noteworthy thing for me was DP's lack of response or OMGUS when Gaspar said DP was scum. That seems a little odd, in hindsight.

With the claims, Gaspar's does seem too complex to be made up. You would have to be very confident and organised ahead of time to make up a claim like that.. and the Mr Grey condorcet evidence was very fortuitous. It's hard enough being scum without concocting and acting out a fictitious role perfectly...
DP's claim is one easily made as scum and he had the luxury of claiming last too. In his favour though is what Sarcastro said in post 1901 about the ability reminding Sarc of his own. But that's kind of weak, upon reflection. I was worried that if DP is scum it means that Sinbad wasn't in the game, yet most of the other Dantes personas were... but then I realised one of the dead players in this game were very likely told

they

were Sinbad.

[Gaspar]

...but then I realised one of the dead players in this game were very likely told

they

were Sinbad.

Why do you think it's "likely" that one of the deceased was told they were Sindbad?

[Gaspar]

EBWOP: Although admittedly, that's a possibility I hadn't even

considered

until you brought it up just now. I see it as a possibility, but I'm not understanding why it's "likely" the case. Did somebody hint at being Sinbad?

[Talitha]

No, it's just a hunch (generated because I now believe DP to be lying). Sinbad was an alias of Dantes (according to Wikipedia) so I thought he would likely be in the game. But then I realised that if he was in the game, s/he would likely have shown up as something else on death. Like Sarcastro (Number 34 = Barry McGuire). Likely + likely = still quite likely

I wonder whether there are parallels between the Fresno character and the Monte Cristo character. How does Kirk Kekorkian resemble the COMC; how does Barrry McGuire parallel No 34? Or maybe it is just random.. with no links between the two characters.

[Talitha]

Hi. I have not had the time to look into the links between characters that I speculated about in my post above. I have a very busy next 3-ish days but I'll see what I can do.

I also need to look over DP's posts without my rose-coloured glasses on and see if I can convince Gaspar to lynch him and not me. Just out of curiousity, is Primate still active?

[Gaspar]

Hi. I have not had the time to look into the links between characters that I speculated about in my post above. I have a very busy next 3-ish days but I'll see what I can do.

I also need to look over DP's posts without my rose-coloured glasses on and see if I can convince Gaspar to lynch him and not me. Just out of curiousity, is Primate still active?

Prim:

No not really. I'm still reading the game, but at this point it's effectively just as an observer who happens to know one of the roles.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Just want to make sure that I am not getting replaced this late in the game with an obligatiry post. I will have time to do another re-read tomorrow to see whether there is any chance that I am believing Gaspar's claim for the wrong reasons, or whether Setael could still be the last scum.

[Gaspar]

Hi. I have not had the time to look into the links between characters that I speculated about in my post above. I have a very busy next 3-ish days but I'll see what I can do.

I also need to look over DP's posts without my rose-coloured glasses on and see if I can convince Gaspar to lynch him and not me. Just out of curiousity, is Primate still active?

Prim:

No not really. I'm still reading the game, but at this point it's effectively just as an observer who happens to know one of the roles.

Just to elaborate quickly: I (Glork) have bounced a couple of ideas off of Primate in the last few game-days to see if I'm thinking right, and he's given me some helpful feedback. But yeah, basically it's become my show at this point.


Anyway, I've not had a chance to really read the thread lately, and for that I apologize. I've been bogged down with various things, and I managed to mess up my sleep schedule. I should get cracking on things Sunday.

[Mr. Grey]

Deadline:

Approximately 66 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

2 to lynch.

(None)

Current Condorcet Winner:

None. Current Smith Set: Dragon Phoenix, Gaspar, Talitha, No Lynch

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

[Dragon Phoenix]

I still think that Gaspar is most likely what they claim. We cannot lynch Setael and I consider it is too risky to gamble on a no lynch - but we have not asked the mod yet, have we?

Mod, can you tell us whether Setael will return to the game during the night phase or during the morning?

Please see the Post Content section of the rules regarding asking questions of the Mod. Tags removed. - Mod

[Talitha]

I don't think Gaspar or Setael are scum, that just leaves my pal DP. I just got home from the end of year concert. It has been a lot of work and I am absolutely shattered.

DP - out of curiousity, can you explain why you were certain it was safe to vote for Setael with only 2 votes required to lynch?

[Talitha]

curiousity? excuse my spelling

[Dragon Phoenix]

I was not certain. It was a gamble I was willing to take.