California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Sigh Gaspar, that's not the point.

He says specifically that us(as in the people who were responsible for Lee's lynch) are lucky that Lee came up SK, the way he said it made me feel that he thought specifically the people who were responsible for Lee's lynch were lucky.

I'm having a really hard to typing out what I mean when I say that.

[Gaspar]

Okay, then I'm not really understanding what you're getting at. Do you think CES is implying that the people who lynched LmL are protown?

Remember at the end of 2-Headed Giant when whomever it made the right lynch (on PJ) for completely wrong/flawed reasons. He got lucky. He nailed the scum when good logic should've directed him to a mislynch and he used flawed logic instead.



I think the only assumption CES makes is that the People Responsible for LmL's Lynch all benefited from lynching him, so they all made a "good" lynch based on bad reasoning (the whole LACE thing, which was entirely inaccurate to begin with, assuming LmL did not poison ZZ). Thus, LmL's lynchers made a theoretically good lynch on bad reasoning, so they got lucky.

CES, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but that's how I'm reading the statement.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Exactly, that statement is WRONG because in the viewpoint of the Mafia, lynching LML is equivalent essentially to a mislynch because it is a lynch of someone that is not mafia.

What I think CES left unsaid was basically , "You guys got lucky LML came up SK,

cuz we would've nailed your asses to the wall if he had come up town

"(at least that is what I feel was his intention from the post)

My point is that it doesn't make any sense because those who lynched Lee are not more likely to be innocent because he came up SK rather than town.

Specifically my point is this, IF LoudMouthLee had come up as "Mercedes, Searching Townie" instead of "Mark Wesson, Mass Murderer", we who have lynched him should not looked any guiltier because in the eyes of the Mafia, Mark Wesson is as much of a mislynch as a Mercedes.

[Gaspar]

Ah. Now I understand your perspective.

As something of an aside, I would argue that nailing an SK, while still theoretically a "mislynch" for the Mafia, is generally a Good Thing. I don't have any numbers/stats to back up my opinion, but I think that the average SK poses a greater threat to the Mafia than the average protown role.


Nevertheless, if we assume that Mafia treated LmL's lynch as a "mislynch," I agree that we can't ignore the people on his wagon.

What I noted overnight is that Tally and DP -- both of whom I've suspected mildly to moderately already -- both joined the LmLwagon late, when beforehand MBL (whom I obviously believe is scum) would have been the Condorcet winner. If MBL doesn't end up being the lynch of the day, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing either of those two hang.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Gaspar is right. Pooky is wrong.

Remember at the end of 2-Headed Giant when whomever it made the right lynch (on PJ) for completely wrong/flawed reasons. He got lucky. He nailed the scum when good logic should've directed him to a mislynch and he used flawed logic instead.

Actually, if he had mislynched, it would've been based on flawed logic too, just not as flawed. Good logic would've also resulted in the lynch on PJ(as lynching me would assuredly have lost him (and me) the game).

[IH]

An SK would selfhammer because he was upset and angry.

Why do you want to know?

Ok, now think about the purpose of a self hammer. Is it anger, or to limit information to help partners?

Am I mistaken in the purpose of a selfhammer?

[Gaspar]

IH, in Caddyshack Mafia the SK (raj) self-hammered at Lynch-1 because he wanted to give the Mafia a chance at beating the town.


Now granted, LmL said "go town" before going down, but I would imagine that he didn't see the point of dragging out the day through the weekend.

[MrBuddyLee]

danglars and eugenie's deaths related--but Thesp was NKed and Mgm lynched. Don't get that. Incompetent cops?

VitR talked to Fred, Ginger, Heidi, Isaac and ma... I googled but didnt come up with an answer but it feels like a clue.

It seems like LML may have been part of a scumteam, because it appeared he had a motivation to make stuff up even after caught. He also appeared to try to end the day quickly before he made any more mistakes which could only mean he was worried about giving away his partners. I doubt he'd put Pookypartner in such a bad spot, so it's unlikely they're aligned. His cop claim looks like BS, just like his rambling about doc protects.

Scum appear to have safeclaims.

I also endorse this product:

And to Gaspar:

In light of the above WALL O TEXT, please revise and extend your remarks about my redundant, selectively-chosen(?!) questions and clarify your criticism of my play. I've created a relational web between me and most of the remaining players--which, if any of the connections look weak or phony to you? Why me when by all appearances my contribution dwarfs those of many players in this game?

I have to say, I do like most of MBL's posts so far.

I note that VitaminR was seeing the light and was lining up to grill Gaspar before he was gassed. Lack of proportional accusations = likely scumbag.

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

I also read disappointed/detached tone in CES's post. I think he and Gaspar should be on the hotseat today.

[foolinc]

It seems like LML may have been part of a scumteam, because it appeared he had a motivation to make stuff up even after caught. He also appeared to try to end the day quickly before he made any more mistakes which could only mean he was worried about giving away his partners. I doubt he'd put Pookypartner in such a bad spot, so it's unlikely they're aligned. His cop claim looks like BS, just like his rambling about doc protects.

This doesn't make an sense. Marcus Wesson (the real life version) worked alone, so it makes no sense whatever for him to be paired up with anyone. But I'm going to bite. If he was a scum team, who do you think are apart of it MBL?

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

It's called the filter button, I suggest you use it.

Tag fixed. - Mod

[MrBuddyLee]

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

It's called the filter button, I suggest you use it.

No, I understand that your top suspect yesterday was Mr. Grey and your most trusted was LML. And that VitR was high on your list. I'd like to know where you stand after the night's events.

(As for LML's possible scumteam, I need to review his interactions, but his behavior in isolation pointed to a strategy beyond self-interest.)

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I read up on Marcus Wesson and he claimed he DIDN'T work alone. He claimed his family members performed most of the murders before killing themselves.

[Dragon Phoenix]

What I noted overnight is that Tally and DP -- both of whom I've suspected mildly to moderately already -- both joined the LmLwagon late, when beforehand MBL (whom I obviously believe is scum) would have been the Condorcet winner. If MBL doesn't end up being the lynch of the day, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing either of those two hang.

Sure, I wanted to make sure that MBL would not be lynched. That's why I voted for him all day.

If you want to throw suspicion, try to do it in a more clever way. You are moving up the condorcet ladder once I preparae a new one.

[foolinc]

Does anyone find the comment in LML's death about having a device that openeda secret passage from his room to the servant's quarters weird?

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

It's called the filter button, I suggest you use it.

No, I understand that your top suspect yesterday was Mr. Grey and your most trusted was LML. And that VitR was high on your list. I'd like to know where you stand after the night's events.

(As for LML's possible scumteam, I need to review his interactions, but his behavior in isolation pointed to a strategy beyond self-interest.)

I voted for Mr. Grey because voting Tali, who I still think is scummy, wasn't going anywhere.

VitR wasn't high on my list. He's in the middle of it.

Also, I read up on Marcus Wesson and he claimed he DIDN'T work alone. He claimed his family members performed most of the murders before killing themselves.

I realize that he tried to claim that the family members killed themselves, but a ton of serial killers try to come up with lies to keep them out of jail. The truth was that he worked alone.

[foolinc]

An SK would selfhammer because he was upset and angry.

Why do you want to know?

Ok, now think about the purpose of a self hammer. Is it anger, or to limit information to help partners?

Am I mistaken in the purpose of a selfhammer?

There are three possibilites:
1. To limit the damage
2. Just to screw with the rest of the players (aka because he was pissed off)
3. He really believed that it was a scum led wagon and sac himself for the town.

[Gaspar]

What I noted overnight is that Tally and DP -- both of whom I've suspected mildly to moderately already -- both joined the LmLwagon late, when beforehand MBL (whom I obviously believe is scum) would have been the Condorcet winner. If MBL doesn't end up being the lynch of the day, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing either of those two hang.

Sure, I wanted to make sure that MBL would not be lynched. That's why I voted for him all day.

If you want to throw suspicion, try to do it in a more clever way. You are moving up the condorcet ladder once I preparae a new one.

Actually, the fact that you ragged on MBL for much of the day before switching makes me want to put you above Tally on my list. You might've heard the ploy; it's called "distancing."

And while you had been gunning for MBL right up until the most crucial part of the day, he has been suspiciously quiet regarding you. He has asked you a single question and threw out a weak FoS of you (along with FoSes of VitR and Gaspar, all of which, I might note, had more than atouch of OMGUS to them)... other than that, nothing.

[Tamuz]

#3 doesn't make sense.

[foolinc]

#3 doesn't make sense.

Never said all the possiblities were equal. Choice 3 only makes sense if you believe what LML said about his role is true.

[Tamuz]

Nope still doesn't.

[foolinc]

Nope still doesn't.

Why doesn't make sense?

[Tamuz]

OK this is all taking the assumption that LML is a good/experienced player. If you want to argue against that. I'll sit you down and give you some kindergarten lessons.

OK, so lets see LML's win condition, seeing how he was an SK ( although I do leave doubt open that he was part of a family. Not much, but a little... a very weeeeeee little bit) was kill everyone else. He wouldn't waste the effort to try and help anyone in the game. The game is over for him once he dies, any string he pulls before that are more for his enjoyment than meddling in the game for one side or the other.

His death, as an SK would not lead to more suspicion on his interrogators, I could probably quote 3 games where mafia have seemed cleaner due to a vehement attack on an SK with very little research to look at them. The adverse? I haven't heard of it happening. So "sacrificing" himself so his pursuers would look scummy is just plain wrong. A player of his caliber wouldn't waste his effort. Plus if he was trying to be beneficial to the town he wouldn't CUT the day.

3 is just implausible for motivation and intelligence reasons.

[Talitha]

Talitha, what do you think of my claim after seeing VitR's role?

I think that I was wrong about your claim.

I'm fairly confident that LoudmouthLee wasn't part of any scum group. I think he was called a mass murderer instead of a serial killer, because that more accurately describes Marcus Wesson. But still a loner.

For me, it's back to the drawing board. I had two top suspects yesterday, one is now dead and the other one is less suspicious. Not cleared because mith might have been sneaky enough to give 'Innocent Fresnoer' (or whatever) as a safe claim. Anyway, what it means is that I will have to go back over the thread to see what made me suspicious of Oman/IH in the first place, and whether I still feel that way.

Gaspar is basing his suspicions on who wasn't voting for MBL at the end of the day. This reasoning might be useful if MBL turns out to be mafia, but at this stage most of us just don't know whether that is the case.

What we do know, however, is that Thesp definitely was a member of the mafia. I'd like it if Thesp and his interactions with other players was looked at before it all becomes way ancient history. It's what i intend to look at (as well as IH) if I ever get the time to go over it properly.

[Zindaras]

Lee's lynch could be viewed as any town lynch: from the scum's perspective (if he really was SK), he was a mislynch, so they will have treated his lynch as such.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar is basing his suspicions on who wasn't voting for MBL at the end of the day. This reasoning might be useful if MBL turns out to be mafia, but at this stage most of us just don't know whether that is the case.

You're slightly off here. I am not "basing" my suspicions of you and DP on the fact that you jumped LmL instead of MBL. As I stated,

I already found each of you suspicious at points in the game

, and I happened to notice a connection between you and MBL, whom I also believe is scum. If I were "basing" my suspicions on people not voting MBL, I'd have like nine suspects right now.

[IH]

His death, as an SK would not lead to more suspicion on his interrogators, I could probably quote 3 games where mafia have seemed cleaner due to a vehement attack on an SK with very little research to look at them. The adverse? I haven't heard of it happening. So "sacrificing" himself so his pursuers would look scummy is just plain wrong. A player of his caliber wouldn't waste his effort. Plus if he was trying to be beneficial to the town he wouldn't CUT the day.

You're not taking LML's personal vindictive personality into the equation.

[logicticus]

Why did he self hammer?

I think he was just frustrated and wanted to end the day. He knew there was no way he was gonna talk his way out of it and just wanted to be done with it. I think you guys are overanalyzing the situation.

Now the question about why he said some of those things he did at the end are an entirely different matter.


I am with Pooky on not liking CES' "You guys got lucky" comment. It seperates us from him, us being the majority of the players. Even if I was 100% certain that LML was town and was completely against lynching him and defended him the whole way to no avail and he came up town, I would say "We got lucky." not "You guys got lucky." So I dont buy that defense.

vote CES