Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:59 pm

Are you town andrew?

/confirm intent to bandwagon andrew

Why wait til the game starts?

VOTE: andrew

zMuffinMan · Post Post #12 (isolation #1) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:40 pm

No. I'm always town. Especially in any game someone asks me that question.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #14 (isolation #2) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:44 pm

My avatar will eat your avatar, beanie and all, if you don't keep quiet about it.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #25 (isolation #3) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:56 pm

I need one more confirmation before I can officially OMGUS littlegrey. Hurry up, guys.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #30 (isolation #4) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 11:46 pm

I think that should be dicussed at the end of D1, not at the beginning.

VOTE: andrew obvscum is soo soooooo obvious.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #40 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:03 am

My idea for claiming is this: basically just the Hider/HT/det-psych claiming and the hider/det-psych co-ordinating night actions. This narrows scum down to a pool of 9 players and also means PRs can avoid each other (with the exception of the vig-tracker). Lynch one. Hider hides behind another (who he/she announces before nightfall). det-psych and vig-tracker would check/kill whoever they want of the remaining. Scum will target the det-psych first prob, then assuming the hider dies we can go from there. Worst-case scenario is that we go into MyLo D2, but that's happened before and turned out well, so 'sall G. Best case scenario, PRs rock scum and we win, gg.

Scum really cannot counter-claim in this setup, so I don't think counter-claims will be an issue, but if they happen, it can be discussed if/when it happens.

Anyway, I figured I'd lay this idea out here as a basis for discussion, BUT I don't think it should actually happen until much later in the day.

Also a good discussion point is whether or not the vig-tracker should choose to be a vig or a tracker. I personally prefer vig. As long as the vig doesn't take out the det-psych N1 with the hider hiding behind her, I think it's a much better choice than tracker. Although it depends on the D1 lynch, really. If scum is lynched, Tracker might be a better option.

grey wrote:What's your reason to vote for Andrew both times?

Well I voted andrew in confirmation because he's scum, and I revoted him after confirmation because the mod is a meanie who didn't count the confirmation vote.

grey wrote:But Muffin would have read Jake's post acknowledging that the game hadn't started yet, and shouldn't have voted. That's why I'm thinking he could be scum.

Is there any basis for thinking I'm scum, here? Like games you've seen this happen, or any real reason it's more likely I'm scum than town because of this?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #42 (isolation #6) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:59 am

The tracker wouldn't be claiming D1, so this isn't an issue.

CCing hider tracker could be an issue. Solution: Hider-tracker claims first (no other claims). If there's a counter-claim, hider should not claim (only the real hider tracker will know who the hider hides behind).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #76 (isolation #7) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:28 pm

swank wrote:I'm tempted to give up hopes of winning and follow through with your proposed experiment.

This line here is what I really don't like about swank's #48. It

sounds

to me like he thinks whatever plan Hoopla is going to propose will benefit scum in some way, but he's willing to blindly follow it for 'experimental' purposes.

swank wrote:In addition to his support of a risky plan, Muffin's interpretation would completely neutralize one of the town's better PRs. When I bring up counterclaim issues, his tone is pretty dismissive - I think it's a much bigger vulnerability the plan than he does.

Yes, it would neutralise one of town's PRs (in my plan, the det-psych), but here's the thing.

Any

sort of mass-claim is going to 'neutralise' at least one of the PRs. My plan protects what I consider to be the more useful PRs (vig-tracker, HT) in exchange for the sacrifice of the det-psych (baiting the N1 kill) and most probably the hider at some point.

You brought up the issue of counter-claims, but it's a non-issue, because the vig-tracker cannot be counter-claimed (he won't be claiming) and the HT issue I already proposed a solution. But here's the thing: even if the vig-tracker did claim and was counter-claimed D1, the real vig-tracker could choose to be a vig and vig the liar, and we'd have all our other PRs alive tomorrow. There is really no counter-claim issue here. So yes, I'm being dismissive.

grey wrote:If I told you that would defeat the purpose of me making a new one. Just to be fair, the only person here I've ever been in a game with was zMuffin, but that was a while ago.

Oh, I know who you are then. I think. If you like sitting in a chair and eating sweets.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #78 (isolation #8) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:33 pm

I disagree that the hider should flip coin to decide who he hides behind.

I think, if we go ahead with your plan, hider should announce who he hides behind before nightfall. Yes, there's a possibility he hides behind scum and scum kill either HT or det-psych, and we're down 2 PRs, but it also means we'd have confirmed scum going into tomorrow on top of D1 lynch + vig shot + 2 town PRs left with the vig still in hiding. And if the hider doesn't die, then we have a confirmed town + hider + 2 PRs still left + vig shot + d1 lynch.

Also, this circumvents the issue I had with your plan (that all 3 scum could hide in the possible-vig pool and aim the vig tonight) because we'd be building a pool of confirmed townies outside of the possible-vig pool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #79 (isolation #9) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:36 pm

EBWOP: disagree that he should flip a coin to decide whether he hides*

I think he should always hide and announce it (just in case scum do kill the HT first).

Also the HT could technically be counter-claimed, so the hider should only claim after the HT claims and has no been CCed.

Order would be like: everyone claims det-psych or not-det-psych, once that is over, everyone claims HT or not-HT, once that's over Hider claims.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #83 (isolation #10) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:53 pm

Hoopla wrote:To clarify, if the Hider announces a town target - then the scum just need to target that player to net a townie/hider double kill. We don't get any confirmed innocents from that situation, as the Hider's target doesn't live.

This would be optimal for town.

Hider/townie dying while the vig takes a shot, the det-psych gets a check and the HT is a confirmed townie alive D2? I'll take that.

Absolute worst case scenario, we'd be down to 8 people with 3 scum still alive, 2 confirmed townies, 1 vig who could claim D2, and we'd be in a really, really good position to win the game.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #85 (isolation #11) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 10:11 pm

I'm actually not following you here...

Just walk me through this, baby steps, and I'll explain why I'm not following this.

Say we lynch a VT today, for worst-case scenario purposes.
Hider announces he will hide behind a townie.
Scum kills that VT tonight.
Hider + VT die.
Vig kills a VT in another worst-case scenario.

Tomorrow we have:

3 scum
Confimed HT
Confirmed det-psych
2 VTs
1 vig.

I think this is a very good situation for town, especially if the det-psych gets a good result, but even if he doesn't there are 2 confirmed townies, 1 vig that has the option of claiming D2 (can't be CCed because it would be suicide for scum - we would choose not to lynch either of them and they'd take each other out at night), and very good leads based on D1 play.

And this is worst-case scenario, not including the possibility of lynching scum D1 or vigging scum N1.

I don't see why this is a bad thing.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #88 (isolation #12) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 5:45 am

If your plan is just based on numbers, then the hider shouldn't hide at all.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #90 (isolation #13) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:01 am

No, because if he hides behind scum and scum kill the HT, then we're down to 8 players tomorrow, and we're in a worse situation than if he announced who he is hiding behind.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #92 (isolation #14) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:29 am

Amrun wrote:True,n but I still don't think it's good to announce.

And if the scum kill the HT, then we get a spych/det result AND we know there's scum in that VT pool so we just kill it until it's dead.

Which is why I think if the Hider isn't going to announce it, he should just not hide altogether. Saves complications with losing 2 PRs N1, especially when a det-psych investigation isn't necessarily reliable.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #94 (isolation #15) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:48 am

... No, it isn't.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #95 (isolation #16) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:53 am

Look, I'll just try to illustrate to you why it's a bad thing going on numbers alone.

If there's 1 scum member in the no-vig pool, say we mislynch 1 VT today, hider hides behind scum in the non-vig pool (without announcing it), scum kill HT and to make matters worse, vig killed a VT from the other pool. We're down to 8 players with 3 scum left alive, and if there's only 1 scum in the pool of non-viges, then lynching them 1 by 1 isn't going to work. 1 mislynch and the vig must vig correctly or it's game over, and even if the vig does vig correctly it's 3:2 lylo with 2 from the non-vig pool still alive.

I don't even really know if this makes sense the way I just described it because my posts start making less and less sense at 4am, but it's not a good thing.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #97 (isolation #17) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:07 am

Well, the utility would be lost if he hid behind scum without announcing it and scum kill the HT... Actually, I think if scum is lynched D1, this isn't a real problem. And thinking about it some more, I really should not be thinking about it at 4am.

But assuming the Hider chooses not to utilise his hide ability, we are still utilising the fact that both the hider and the HT are confirmed townies after their claims.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #98 (isolation #18) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:08 am

The other reason I think hider should announce the hiding target is so that the det-psych can co-ordinate his investigation around the hider.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #100 (isolation #19) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:03 am

@Hoopla,

One last thought. Your objection to the Hider claiming who he would hide behind is that scum would be able to take out the VT he hides behind and we'd have one less mislynch/misvig available, right? But if scum take out one of the potential mislynch/misvigs anyway, is this really a problem?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #116 (isolation #20) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 9:17 pm

Hoopla wrote:or if we're wrong four times in a row (D1/N1/D2/N2) before hitting scum.

This is the problem, and this is what I want to think carefully about. And we can't be wrong 4 times

before hitting scum

because come D3, if no scum are dead, it's game over. And this is the same in both your scenario with 9 alive tomorrow and my scenario with possibly 8 alive tomorrow.

Hoopla wrote:The Hider taking a player with it at night is the additional kill messing up the cycle. We don't want that extra kill.

This I disagree with, because if scum are taking out one of the VTs, it means we don't actually need the additional kill in the cycle. I want to run through some scenarios and think about this before I say anything else.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #118 (isolation #21) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 9:47 pm

You're right that if we do hit scum in your scenario, we have a bit more leeway, but the chance of hitting scum by D3 in my scenario is also much higher. Which is why I want to think about it first.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #120 (isolation #22) » Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:44 pm

I don't think it's as simple as looking at odds and 'reads'. You're discounting how scum would interact based on knowing a mass claim is likely at this point, and knowing they may have to bus their scum buddies. An example of this is you; I assume if you're a VT, you'll be nominating yourself for the non-vig pool, right? But just because of play so far, you'll be much less likely to be lynched than other players. You can say, "well, you can lynch me if you want", but you know that sort of attitude makes it less likely you'll be lynched. Not to mention if you are scum, your buddies probably knew you'd be doing this, and any reads based on the game so far aren't really reliable.

I'm being really, really paranoid here, but this should explain why I'm not liking play based solely on odds.

To be honest, I'd much rather play the game as is and consider mass claiming again further down the line.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #122 (isolation #23) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 8:56 am

Hoopla wrote:we have to gamble on some players being town throughout the game

You call it gambling, I call it reading.

Your plan doesn't eliminate gambling in any way, though. There's still a gamble.

Hoopla wrote:If I'm scum, I wouldn't lock us into a suboptimal play.

You call it sub-optimal, but it really isn't. You're nullifying all the town PRs except for the vig (essentially they'd all just be confirmed townies) and pretty much ensuring you get to at least LyLo because you probably wouldn't be vigged or lynched over other candidates. You'd be removing most of the PR luck elements that could potentially destroy scum before D2.

I don't actually believe this is a scum-sided game when played straight. Although it really comes down to town PRs playing well, and in past hard-boiled games I've looked at, town have misplayed or scum has been a bit lucky (e.g. in one game, the last remaining scum took out the tracker on the night he tracked the last remaining scum).

All this said, I am a sucker and I do believe you're town, but I really don't like that you said that you must be town because you wouldn't suggest this if you were scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #124 (isolation #24) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:05 pm

Actually, 3 and 6 is a good idea. A really good idea. Not because it hides the vig, but because it makes mafia's decision really, really hard. 1/3 chance of getting lynched if they nominate themselves, and 3/5 chance of getting vigged if none of them nominate themselves. could also get behind a hider using his ability in this scenario.

I didn't mind your hider idea, but we were talking about it from the perspective of numbers, and also there's a possibility that any two players the hider chooses could actually both be mafia (not an extremely likely possibility, but still a possibility none-the-less).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #125 (isolation #25) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:45 pm

Actually, I really need to think this through properly.

Hoopla, in a 4/5 split, why isn't it optimal for no scum to be in the no-vig pool and take a shot at the vig at night? You say that this is risky, but it really isn't, depending on what sort of reads they've got on the two remaining players in the possible-vig pool. Even if they do a 1/2 split, they could still take a shot at the vig if they have a read on him. Plus you say it's a gamble on scum's part, but if your plan is so advantageous for town, then obviously the correct choice for scum is to take this gamble and play for the win if they hit right (which could be very likely depending on how useful the det-psych, especially if the hider is choosing not to use his ability for fear of reducing numbers).

I think the hider hiding, and announcing his hide, is a really smart option. Even if it's something similar to what DF suggested. It distracts scum from vig-hunting. And if we're looking at distractions from vig-hunting, then the hider hiding behind a VT is a really good idea, because it at least means that if they do go vig-hunting, they risk the hider confirming someone as town (which would mean 4 conf. townies with 9 alive and probably a good lead on scum).

Just thinking out loud right now, but I want to look at all options before anything is set in stone.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #128 (isolation #26) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 3:26 pm

Amrun wrote:Why would scum go all in the non-vig pool? That guarantees two scum deaths before D2.

No scum in the non-vig pool means at most 1 scum dead before D2... And possibly none...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #133 (isolation #27) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 5:11 pm

The vig is supposed to be shooting from the possible-vig pool and we are supposed to be lynching from the non-vig pool, Amrun. The reason for this is so we avoid running the vig up to L-1 D1 (because he won't be in the non-vig pool).

So if all 3 scum go in the possible-vig pool, they have a 50/50 shot at taking out the vig N1, not even assuming they have some sort of PR read on him.

We lynch a VT from the non-vig pool D1 (because theyre all VTs) and vig still has a 25% chance of killing the VT in the possible-vig pool....

zMuffinMan · Post Post #150 (isolation #28) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:04 am

Actually...

neil wrote:What's your take on how easy the vig could get lynched / pointed out if all the scum hide in the no-claim pool?

This isn't really a concern.

We should go ahead with this, with a 4/5 split. No more questions or hints for scum. And no more discussion about what would or wouldn't be optimal for scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #151 (isolation #29) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:04 am

Also, if we do go ahead with this, I have some things I will discuss after mass claims are over.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #153 (isolation #30) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:28 am

zMuffinMan · Post Post #235 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:36 am

Hold on.

Lots of stuff, I have briefly skimmed, but I'm considering Quilford's idea. It is a nice touch, and counter-claims still aren't an issue if we do this (if we have more than 3 people claiming PR, we can go through and deal with CCs). Plus it makes it harder for scum to decide on their NK.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #236 (isolation #32) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:43 am

glowball, why do you keep insisting that you're on the same team as everyone else? It's really, really distracting and not at all a townie mindset.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #242 (isolation #33) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:52 am

@Hoopla,

What Amrun said. Minus popcorn.

We deal with proper claims if, and only if, there are more than 3 people claiming PR. In this case, we do det-psych claim/s first, HT claims second and hider claims third, within the group of people claiming PRs.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #244 (isolation #34) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:55 am

PS:

@Amrun,

lol. I reckon we could have won even if you vigged RC. I had a strong town read on don, and scott was confirmed town, and I think don was the same with me. Although it would have been a lot more difficult.

@glowball,

Yeah, but you've specifically called certain people town, and it's distracting. For example, you said that lynching you would be playing against someone's win-con, but unless you know they're not scum, or you're scum with them, that would be an inaccurate statement.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #247 (isolation #35) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:02 am

@hoopla,

I don't think popcorn really matters for the PR-notPR claims, and lists will be subjective. I think it should just be a claim-in-your-next-post sort of thing with minimal discussion going on until the claims are over.

Although there a few things I want to go over before it happens, so I'd rather delay this for a day or two. Also gives a chance for people to refine it or offer suggestions in the mean time; I mean, Quilford's idea only just came, and it's a good one. I'd rather eliminate scum's chances as much as possible before we go ahead with this.

@glowball,

How does "grasping at straws" make sense? Why do you think I'm grasping at straws? I haven't actually said anything about you, I've just asked you to stop doing it because it's distracting if you're actually town and it's marring my read. Go ahead and keep doing it if you're scum, though. I really don't mind if that's the case.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #251 (isolation #36) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:17 am

zMuffinMan · Post Post #253 (isolation #37) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:26 am

Just 'coz.

Mostly too scummy to be scum. I don't see scum trying that hard to derail this claim plan; much more likely scum is in the people agreeing with everything without questioning anything. There's probably also scum hiding in the 'helpful' players, and you are the first that comes to mind in that regard. But I'm not scum hunting like I should be due to the circumstances in this game, and the only real reads I have right now are gut reads with little or no substance to back it up.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #255 (isolation #38) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:28 am

I asked her why she was doing it and I asked her to stop doing it if she's town.

Do you think there's something wrong with that?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #258 (isolation #39) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:39 am

@Amrun,

Yes... Because I am coaching her. She should stop doing it if she's town.

@neil,

Yeah, which is why I didn't want to go ahead with this until later in the day, but apparently people want to get this over and done with now. So I don't really mind, as long as there's at least day or two before it happens so I can make sure I'm not missing anything. I still have some things that I will discuss only after the mass-claim is over, and people will probably not like it at all.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #291 (isolation #40) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:09 pm

It's not that scum has an idea of how to beat it. It's that scum has no choice but to agree with it and hope they look town enough to avoid being lynched/NKed while trying to find whatever loopholes they can in the plan.

Which is why I don't want to go ahead with it so quickly, until all aspects have been evaluated to screw scum over as much as possible, and it's why I think scum is in the people blindly agreeing with everything, and maybe one of them is in the people being really 'helpful'.

PS: Oh, neil... You're scum again, aren't you? That sucks. Was hoping for a town game with you.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #294 (isolation #41) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:04 pm

btw, that is the longest episode of anime ever, jakesh. Or you got a bottle of water that's like 100 litres or something. Either way, it's probably not a good thing.

And I forgot to claim. Shrek. But I think the mod gave me a bad fakeclaim here because Shrek isn't a disney movie afaik.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #296 (isolation #42) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:11 pm

So, just summarising the plan so far:

1) Everyone claims "PR" or "not PR". Det-psych, HT and hider are the ones that should be claiming "PR" and vig/VTs should be claiming "not PR". Scum can do whatever they want here. If we get more than 3 "PR" claims, we go through and do individual claims.
2) We do a 3/6 split for not-vig/possible-vig pools. 3 people volunteer themselves as "not vig" and they are the lynch candidates for today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #333 (isolation #43) » Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:56 pm

I want to see Amrun in the lynch pool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #337 (isolation #44) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:42 am

It's not a slip out of context either. It's not a slip altogether. It's a fairly self-explanatory sentence fragment.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #342 (isolation #45) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:01 am

That, and andrew is scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #366 (isolation #46) » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:29 pm

Hey, Oversoul.

Save me some time, and tell me what your actual read is. I can't be bothered sifting through that to find out.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #399 (isolation #47) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 6:30 am

please, please, please let amrun be in the lynch pool

zMuffinMan · Post Post #405 (isolation #48) » Sat Jun 25, 2011 7:26 am

Need a more replacement, so we can get a jakesh replacement. A side note though, he flaked in another of my games (was lynched just recently for reasons unrelated to his flaking, and flipped VT). So it's not like a scum-lurking tactic. Not to say he isn't scum, but that his inactivity isn't a tell of any sort.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #418 (isolation #49) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 3:02 am

andrew wrote:muffin explain 399 please

errrr... I think it's pretty self-explanatory. I want Amrun to be in the lynch pool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #423 (isolation #50) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:26 am

swank wrote:Why do you want Amrun in the lynch pool, though?

I'll give you three guesses.

And one hint: if you guess that I want to lynch Amrun, you'd be right.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #434 (isolation #51) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 1:31 am

prod dodging because I'm cool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #438 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:05 am

It saddens me that people are just ignoring me when I'm going out of my way to look scummy. Nobody thinks I'm worth voting?

Even a simple sympathy vote will brighten my day.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #440 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:20 am

So, er, why are we waiting on pacman? Does he need to do something or can I claim vig now?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #475 (isolation #54) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 1:34 pm

zMuffinMan · Post Post #481 (isolation #55) » Mon Jun 27, 2011 2:25 pm

Oh, there are glaringly obvious holes in the original plan, that have been slightly accounted for with innovations from a few players.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #495 (isolation #56) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 3:55 am

It's pretty obvious glowball is the last pr, but whatever.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #504 (isolation #57) » Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 pm

I thought you wanted to claim last because you were claiming a PR. Just seems strange otherwise. Meh, guess I was wrong.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #514 (isolation #58) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 6:14 am

er, there's still one PR in the two people who haven't claimed yet, glowball.

prod-dodging again coz i'm cool

zMuffinMan · Post Post #536 (isolation #59) » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:12 am

Force-replace littlegrey and prod swank or something

zMuffinMan · Post Post #538 (isolation #60) » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:27 am

I will replace into both their slots if it makes it easier for you.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #541 (isolation #61) » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:50 am

I suppose you're assuming that only one of them will claim PR.

Either way, I don't particularly care. But that means 1 less person is around to nominate themselves for the lynch pool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #544 (isolation #62) » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:12 am

@glowball,

Yeah, I'm just lucky the other PRs all claimed VT so I could get away with my fakeclaim. Lucky town is stupid, this will be an easy game.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #552 (isolation #63) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:05 am

No, glowball.

Your job as unconfirmed town is to get lynched or vigged.

My job as confirmed town (pending the remaining two claims) is to sit back and laugh as you get lynched or vigged.

I don't particularly care what you think, and I'm just waiting for this claiming crap to be over and done with.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #557 (isolation #64) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:42 am

So, let me get this straight.

You think there's scum in the people who haven't claimed. But you also think I'm scum...

When I'm one of only two people so far claiming PR. And there's only two people who haven't claimed.

Right...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #559 (isolation #65) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:57 am

I don't particularly care whether you think I'm scum. Unless there's more than 3 PR claims, I'm town. And there's nothing you can do about it. Lucky for me, I don't need to convince people I'm town.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #565 (isolation #66) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 11:24 am

You're mistaken. I'm not helpful as town, I'm selfish and I push my own agenda. Usually my own agenda is lynching people I personally want to lynch, but in this game, it's dealing with the claims and issues around it.

I've said it multiple times in this game, but I have things I'm going to discuss

after

the claims are done with. Not beforehand. So I'm not particularly interested in this game until the claims are done and we have the designated lynch pool sorted. Then I might start being 'helpful'.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #590 (isolation #67) » Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:55 pm

That would be pacman being pacman.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #594 (isolation #68) » Mon Jul 04, 2011 9:27 pm

I offered to replace into both slots. Don't lie.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #634 (isolation #69) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 1:36 pm

That's really stupid.

Really, really, stupid.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #645 (isolation #70) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 3:46 pm

ftr, I couldn't give two shits what you think of me, and a mass claim of PRs isn't happening today.

We proceed with the plan as it was (lynch/vig pool) and sort out the rest tomorrow.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #647 (isolation #71) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 3:49 pm

OK, hypothetically, we mass claim PRs. Then what?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #652 (isolation #72) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 4:07 pm

amrun wrote:Then we see which exact PR has two claims. There will only be one.

We lynch the one we think is scummiest. If we are wrong, the vig shoots the other one overnight. Guaranteed scumkill.

dumb idea. If there's two hider claims, for example, all a mass claim would do is out all the PRs as well as possibly killing the real hider and then another PR dies at night.

You're also overlooking the fact that scum fake-claiming in this group is doing so because they're somewhat confident they won't be lynched after a mass-claim of PRs. Which means lynching the "scummiest" player is a stupid idea.

It is a far better idea to wait until D2 and there are a number of reasons for this. If you actually think about it, you'll understand.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #654 (isolation #73) » Sat Jul 09, 2011 4:29 pm

No. Do you have a guilty conscience?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #693 (isolation #74) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 12:00 pm

Best plan is go ahead with 3/5 split. The only reason it was going to be a 3/6 split was in case of all 3 scum hiding in the vig pool. Guess what. That can't happen now. 3/5 plan works exactly the same as 3/6 plan, for all intents and purposes.

Discuss claims/counter-claims/whatever D2, if necessary.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #695 (isolation #75) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:30 pm

....

OK,

DFL

Think this through very slowly.

Why was it 6 people in the vig pool? So that if there were 3 scum hiding there, they'd have to guess out of 3 townies who the vig is.

Now think very carefully about why a 3/5 split would still be doing the exact same thing right now.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #697 (isolation #76) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:24 pm

I don't think I've given reads, either. Who are we waiting on replacements for now? swank and... I assume Quilford is back now?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #713 (isolation #77) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 12:48 pm

DFL wrote:There's no point in putting an extra person in the lynch pool for the sake of doing it.

Actually, on thinking about it, I could get behind a 2/6 split.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #716 (isolation #78) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:31 pm

See, the plan was to make 715 useless posts then replace out.

This way, the replacements suffer through reading a pile of garbage... and then replace out themselves, and the cycle continues. Pacman has already completed the first cycle. I am staying around in case people don't realise the plan.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #720 (isolation #79) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:46 pm

uh

we have

oversoul claimed PR (first PR claim, like second overall claim?)
I claimed PR (second PR claim, like 7th overall claim?)
We have glowball who claimed not PR (9th overall claim?) and also volunteered for the lynch pool (durrrrrrrrrrrrr)
silverbullet who replaced littlegrey claimed PR (11th overall claim?)
Then glowball took back her not-PR claim and claimed PR after silverbullet claimed PR.

And chk, who replaced swank? claimed not-PR, so it's like....

PR claims: Oversoul, silverbullet, glowball, myself
Not PR claims: Everyone else

And.... now we're waiting on replacements to catch up. And we need another one for neil.

So far no one is in the lynch pool, and we're sort of discussing how to split it. 2/6 or 3/5.

And it looks like we're not doing claims/counter-claims today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #736 (isolation #80) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:34 pm

Can we just get two volunteers already? Stop chatting and start doing. Bored of this crap.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #739 (isolation #81) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:57 pm

Two volunteers for the lynch pool, please. No further discussion until it happens. I don't care who volunteers and who doesn't, just do it in your next post, please.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #746 (isolation #82) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 2:17 pm

Unvote

OK.

I have some thoughts on this.

First off, though, I want to hear whether people think this is two townies in the lynch pool.

I personally think it is.

Which is why I want to suggest this...

One person from the vig-pool volunteers themselves, we lynch them today, no questions asked.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #748 (isolation #83) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 3:02 pm

Because it keeps two nigh conf-town alive while killing off someone who may be gambiting scum volunteering themselves because they think I'm not serious and it'll make them seem like town sacrificing themselves for the cause.

Think about it like this. If you think hoopla and andrew are town, why vote one of them? Why not vote a third person and keep two likely town players alive?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #749 (isolation #84) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 3:04 pm

Also this doesn't really mess up the plan in any way, either. The vig pool would still be diluted, we'd just be increasing the lynch pool and keeping two likely town players in the lynch pool alive.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #751 (isolation #85) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:35 pm

Nope.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #759 (isolation #86) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:47 pm

Look.

I'll make this very simple.

I am awesome and cool and you should listen to me.

andrew and hoopla are town, I'm town, and chkflip is an idiot but he's probably town. This game is so very, very simple.

Someone from the vig pool volunteers to be the lynch today. Hider hides behind one of the players in the lynch pool tonight. det-psych can do whatever they want, and HT can just sit there and be awesome like me. The vig pool is still diluted enough that scum don't have a great shot at hitting the vig tonight. Hider will likely confirm one of the lynch pool players as town. And if scum take a shot at the PRs, there's a chance they hit the hider (i.e. they don't hit anything at all). In the mean time, the vig has a better shot at hitting scum with one less person in the vig pool.

Now, this plan has a chance of backfiring if I'm wrong about Hoopla or andrew. But I doubt I am. Why? Because I am awesome and cool. Duh.

Stop arguing with me and do what I say.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #763 (isolation #87) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 10:32 pm

No. I might not want to do that.

The only way I could be wrong in how this plan plays out is if I'm wrong about Hoopla or andrew.

Do you think one of them is scum, neil?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #764 (isolation #88) » Wed Jul 13, 2011 10:35 pm

Wait, I just realised...

chk wrote:I love how Muffin RVS votes andrew, later comes to say "That and ANDREW IS SCUM" and then flip-flops to "YEAH I THINK THEY'RE BOTH TOWN."

GTFO scum.

You hosted 305 and you're saying that? REALLLLLLY?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #766 (isolation #89) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:46 am

...............................................................

No, that's not a valid objection to what I said, unless you think one of Hoopla or andrew is scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #773 (isolation #90) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:01 pm

Coventry hasn't nailed crap to do with my plan.

coventry wrote:Which would mean, by my way of thinking, 2 dead from the vig pool by the end of the night and, even if this experiment wasn’t repeated, so long as the vig survived the first night, one more dead the second.

The original plan only had 5 in the vig pool. It was modified to have 6 in the vig pool because of the possibility of all 3 scum hiding in the vig pool and having a relatively good guess at who the vig is. But here's the thing. There can only be 2 scum max in the vig pool now. So, effectively, lessening the vig pool to 5 while lynching a volunteer means that

nothing changes...

The only thing that changes is we have 2 prob-town players still alive tomorrow.

coventry wrote:The original plan is stripped of its entire original utility, because there are no longer two ever-drying pools but instead one rapidly drained pool (where, incidentally, the town’s most powerful power role is located) and one artificially protected one.

No, it isn't. Nothing changes. It's the exact same as the original plan, with one simple change.

There will be one less person in the vig pool because there's one less scum in the non-PR pool, and instead of going after one of the two volunteers who are most likely town, we go after a third volunteer, who is also most likely town.

Where is the flaw?

Again, the only valid objection to my plan is if you believe one of Hoopla and Andrew are scum. Which is near impossible considering they were both going to be lynched D1 and D2 consecutively before I suggested my plan. Which utterly gimps the scum team because we also know there's one scum in the PR pool.

coventry wrote:It is changed from what Hoopla described as a suboptimal plan for scum to use into an optimal plan, because with zMuffin’s design change it:

1. Identifies three out of four power roles.
2. Creates a pool where a bad guy or two could safely hide from both lynch and vig through day one.
3. Shields another bad guy through at least the first day by virtue of a power claim.

1. This was Hoopla's plan, not my modification. Although I had a similar idea.
2. I'm really, really amazing, but even if I were scum, how would I communicate this plan to my teammates? Or how would scum know to hide in the lynch pool prior to me explaining what my plan was?
3. ????????????????????????????????????

Oversoul wrote:With zMuffinMan's plan, wouldn't we be going behind Hoopla's back about the plan and essentially stopping the whole thing that we have wasted so much time preparing for?

No.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #774 (isolation #91) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:07 pm

PS:

Vig Pool:
Chk (Swank)
Darkie

Neil
Amrun

Quilford

Coventry (Pac (Jake))

The only good vig shots are bolded.

And I would like so very much for one of them to come forth and volunteer to be lynched today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #776 (isolation #92) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:33 pm

And...?

Are you suggesting that I'm scum with Hoopla and we pre-planned this whole thing, including every minute change that other people suggested?

What is the relevance of that post?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #779 (isolation #93) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:12 pm

The only possible way your objection makes any sense is if you have a scum read on both Hoopla and me.

Stop tapdancing around the issue with possibilities and come straight out and say it: Do you have a scum read on Hoopla and me?

It is literally the only possible way this could make sense.

And even then, it's

still

stretching, because even if I'm totally mind-blowing amazing (and I am), there is absolutely no way I could have predicted how this would play out. Like not having specific claims? That was Quilford's idea. 3/6 split? That was DFL's idea, modified from the original 4/5 plan. How the fk could we have predicted that?

In any other circumstance, apart from both Hoopla and I being scum, it makes zero sense to disagree with my plan.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #780 (isolation #94) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:20 pm

Beating my head against the desk trying to figure out why people are acting so dumb.

I'll try to get my plan summarised, as eloquently as possible, some time later today, with full explanations as to why it's a good idea and why any objections make virtually zero sense from any perspective.

Right now I'm off to punch a brick wall until my hands are raw and bloody. Probably not a good idea if I'm planning to make a big post later, but I'll deal with minor details like that when I need to.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #783 (isolation #95) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:29 pm

I wasn't talking to you, that was @coventry, who doesn't firmly take a stance on anything, and just suggests possibilities.

I know what you think. And I don't like it, but meh.

Read coventry's post, then mine, but whatever. I'll explain this later.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #784 (isolation #96) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:32 pm

chk wrote:Crazy idea, I know, but even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.

ftr, a friend of mine describes andrew's scumhunting in much the same way, so I kind of smiled when I read this, especially given how wrong you are.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #787 (isolation #97) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:57 pm

@glowball,

What, are you blind?

Do you mean apart from me calling andrew and Hoopla town and bolding 3 good vig shots in the vig pool list?

--

@chk,

I have no idea what you just said and I have no intention of trying to interpret it either.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #790 (isolation #98) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:05 pm

2 of {neil, Amrun, Coventry} because the rest of the vig pool are town, as are hoopla, andrew and myself. I'm not even going to try to guess who's lying in the PR pool. It doesn't concern me. If I'm still alive when it matters, then I'll get to figuring it out.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #793 (isolation #99) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:10 pm

glowball wrote:so why are they town?

'coz I said so.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #795 (isolation #100) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:13 pm

When did I wonder that?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #797 (isolation #101) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:38 pm

No.

I'm right. All you need to do is stop talking and listen to me.

I don't care whether you think I'm playing in a pro-town or anti-town manner.

I'm right, and the sooner people stop arguing with me, the sooner town wins.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #799 (isolation #102) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:49 pm

I don't think I have to. When I make my wall, if people have valid objections to it, then I'll deal with them.

So far the objections have been crap.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #802 (isolation #103) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:54 pm

neil wrote:derp derp derp derp derp derp derp derp DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERP

No.

Kindly take a bullet to the head tonight. Or better yet, volunteer yourself to be lynched today. I'm happy with either.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #816 (isolation #104) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:21 pm

So, recapping the plan and amendments so far:

The original plan, as outlined by Hoopla. There were a lot of things that changed over the course of the game.

The first major change is that PRs aren't claiming their role, just that they are a PR. The second major change is that originally it was a 4/5 split for the lynch/vig pool.

The basic premise of the original plan is still the same though.

The first thing I want to address is this ridiculous claim that Hoopla and I are scum together and somehow pre-planned this whole thing, and now I'm suggesting something in order to save her... (I'm not really sure what the accusation is, but this seems to be the gist of it).

In order for this to make sense, you'd have to be able to explain away how we foresaw this happening. No matter how great, amazing, super-awesome and spectacular I am, to plan this far ahead, so that Hoopla would know to volunteer herself in a

2-person

lynch pool, and that I'd be covering for her. It literally makes no sense to assume this is the case, because the plan has changed so much from the original.

No, I couldn't have foreseen this happening. It couldn't have been planned.

So then the only logical reason you could have for suggesting a Muffin-Hoopla scum partnership is if you think she's scum and volunteered herself without knowing I'd pull something off to try to save her. Which still makes no sense, because there is no possible way she could have known this. Everyone thought the lynch pool was just going to be two consecutive lynches, regardless of their alignment. Including Hoopla. It makes

no sense

for the scum team to gimp themselves like this, and you can cry WIFOM all you want, but with 1 scum in the PR pool already, I will bet anything the remaining two scum didn't have the balls to nominate themselves for the lynch pool.

Hoopla volunteered herself because she's town and it doesn't matter as long as the plan goes ahead. andrew's also town for volunteering himself.

There is a slight possibility I am wrong, but it is so, so, so unlikely that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

What am I suggesting?

That instead of lynching from the 2-person lynch pool, which contains 2 players who are most likely town, one of the players from the 6-person vig pool (which contains 2 scum, at most) volunteers to be the lynch today.

Why is this a good idea?

Firstly, it alters the plan

in no way whatsoever

, because the original reason for he 3/6 split was to hide the vig in numbers in case all scum chose to hide in the vig pool. But there's at least one scum in the PR pool, so having 5 in the vig pool with 4 PR claims would be the same as 6 in the vig pool with 3 PR claims. It also means the vig has a much higher chance of hitting scum tonight, because there's probably 2 scum in the vig pool.

Secondly, if I'm right, and I suspect I am, this allows the Hider to maximise the use of his ability tonight by not only avoiding a NK but also most likely confirming one of the people in the current lynch pool as town.

Thirdly, this doesn't need to be a trend that continues after N1. It all depends on what happens tonight.

Responding to the stupidity that's infested P33 soon.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #822 (isolation #105) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:28 pm

OK, so glowball, the person that claimed not-PR, volunteered herself for the lynch pool, then turned around and said "LOLGAMBIT" is saying... she wants to policy lynch me?

...
...
...

neil is scum flailing because he knows if my plan goes ahead, scum is fking screwed.

chk is just being an idiot, and I'd prefer he doesn't listen to obv-scum.

Here's the thing, though. You lynch me, I flip a PR, then what? "Oh, whoops, we were wrong, soz, he was just playing like scum!"

No dipshits, I'm not playing like scum, because it's in scum's best interests to do everything they can to avoid getting lynched. You

may

have an argument for me playing in a slightly anti-town way, because I refuse to explain some of the things I'm saying, but that's it. I'm not playing like scum, and lynching me is far more anti-town than anythign I've done so far.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #827 (isolation #106) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:33 pm

neil, you're scum.

I don't need proof. I'm right.

derp, derp, derp, I must be scum because I don't have proof.

So far no one has taken the time to actually read through my wall post. Cool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #830 (isolation #107) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:34 pm

You know what, neil?

You could always prove me wrong and volunteer yourself to be the lynch today.

Assuming you can't find any flaws in my wall.

And I'm sure you'll try, and I'm sure you'll continue flailing about, calling me scum, but in the end, I'm right, and you're scum, and you won't volunteer yourself to be today's lynch.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #835 (isolation #108) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:41 pm

Look, glowball, even if you think I'm scum, tell me how anything I said benefits scum.

Do you think I'm scum and I'm doing this because one of my scummates volunteered to be in the lynch pool? If so, how does this make sense? Why would scum gimp themselves like that?

Do you think I'm scum and both the players in the lynch pool are town? Great, then there's no reason to not go ahead with my plan.

The premise of my plan is that scum did not gimp themselves by putting one of their members in the PR pool

and another of their members in the lynch pool

.

If you agree with this, then it doesn't matter how scummy you think I am. And I don't care how scummy you think I am. As long as my plan goes ahead, this is an easy town win.

P-edit:

............................

zMuffinMan · Post Post #840 (isolation #109) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:45 pm

I don't even know what to say apart from, "Why?"

That's just beyond dumb.

If you're actually the vig, why not just replace out if you don't want to play?

And no, no one is going to counter-claim this.

The correct thing to do today is to lynch someone else with no counter-claim.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #849 (isolation #110) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:51 pm

Stop talking, glowball. You have no clue.

We should be lynching someone from the vig pool today that isn't neil.

The rest can be resolved through night actions.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #856 (isolation #111) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 7:55 pm

neil, if you've given up completely on playing the game, replace out. I can find a replacement for you that isn't going to play against his win con.

If not, then work with me.

We should be lynching someone in the vig pool today, and you should be vigging another at night.

Of the people in the vig pool, DFL is probably town, I'm not entirely sure about chk/Quil anymore, but chk is probably town, just stupid.

Coventry and Amrun are both good lynches/vig shots today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #859 (isolation #112) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:00 pm

chk, just stop being stupid, please.

Who out out Quil, coventry, Amrun do you think is most likely scum and why?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #861 (isolation #113) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:03 pm

Yes, because it is all OK, and it can be cleaned up. As long as I'm not wrong about Hoopla and andrew, this is still an easy town win.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #863 (isolation #114) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:17 pm

I just want to salvage this game.

That wasn't actually addressed to you, but it is a general question I'd like everyone to answer.

I still think Andrew and Hoopla are most likely town. I still think we should be lynching someone from the vig pool today. Of the people in the vig pool, I want to see Coventry->Amrun->Quil lynched (in order of preference).

I would prefer people stop voting for the lynch pool nominees, especially in light of recent developments.

unvote

VOTE: Coventry

zMuffinMan · Post Post #864 (isolation #115) » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:29 pm

I'm also debating whether PRs full-claiming would be a good idea today. I don't think it would be, but I am not entirely sure it's a bad idea, either.

zMuffinMan · Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:33 pm

chk,

Stop talking and vote Coventry

glowball,

Stop talking

zMuffinMan · Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:04 am

don't make me regret calling you town, andrew. please.

zMuffinMan · Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:09 am

Who's the vig, andrew?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #889 (isolation #119) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 1:17 am

Avoid... temptation... just pretend he's not in the game.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #890 (isolation #120) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 1:18 am

^ It's what I'm doing with glowball, actually.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #892 (isolation #121) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 1:26 am

Indeed,

btw, announce your vig before we go into the night.

And don't change your mind after you make the decision.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #895 (isolation #122) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 4:02 am

OK, that's great. You're scum, please die.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #898 (isolation #123) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 4:23 am

The threat of the vig isn't that he might target town N1, but that he might target scum some time down the line if they don't take him out immediately.

Although I do encourage scum to try and kill me tonight.

I'm not sure exactly what you were getting at in #896, but it really has nothing to do with whether you're stupid... You're way too paranoid for your own good.

I'm unrelenting in my reads because I am probably right. My read on Hoopla/andrew is based on this premise, and you're free to tell me whether or not you agree with it: Scum already have one member in the PR pool, they would not have gimped themselves by putting another member in the lynch pool. Now there are WIFOM possibilities here, yes, but it still makes no sense for scum to volunteer themselves to be lynched here. They are much safer both hiding in the vig pool and taking their chances with night actions.

That premise was also the foundation of the plan I suggested, and I think it was a very good plan, if people actually took the time to read it, but they didn't and then neil claimed vig and then the shit hit the fan. But whatever, can't do much about that.

What I can do, though, is make the best of the situation we're currently in.

Lynching someone who is likely to be town, no matter how retarded andrew is, is not a good idea. It is a far better idea to take a shot at likely scum in the vig pool, and the likeliest scum in the vig pool is Coventry.

Do you disagree with this?

We have plenty of time for "another" wagon, btw. It's 4 more votes on Coventry to lynch. That's really not difficult.

Just... put aside your paranoid for today.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #914 (isolation #124) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:32 pm

Coventry wrote:Why am I the most likely scum in the vig pool? Because it would seem to me that I am the most likely scum in the vig pool because...

...I disagreed with you. Or perhaps my worst crime was being right. This game has become terrily topsy-turvy, so perhaps wanring someone of the possible consequences of their strangely anti-town behavior only to have those consequences come to pass is now considered a scum-tell.

No, you're scum because you're scum.

Your early posts were IIoA, even when you were trying to break down my plan, you refused to take a stance on anything (it's

possible

both Hoopla and I are scum, it's

possible

something else, etc, etc) and you continue to misrepresent what my plan actually entailed in an attempt to put me in a bad light. You're also most likely scum based on town reads I have in that vig pool (and, of course, town reads I have outside of that vig pool).

Quite frankly, I couldn't care less if you've done anything overtly scummy. You're scum because most of the other players in the game are town, and this is exactly the sort of response I'd expect from you as scum.

neil wrote:But then if I'm alive on Day 2, wouldn't I be a sure fire lynch suspect?

No, you'll be vigged if you're not the vig. So, you being alive tomorrow just means scum are stupid and it'd pretty much confirm you as the vig.

DF wrote:Imagine if Neil was scum. This would be the best move ever. You guarantee yourself not to be lynched unless real vig CC's, in which case there's an easy dead vig, and convince the town to throw away its own plan.

No, DF. It's the dumbest move ever if neil is scum because he's just going to get vigged tonight. The vig doesn't need to CC...

That pretty much means that neil

is

most likely the vig.

DF wrote:If you must kill Coventry, vig her. I'm not lynching based on horrible process of elimination.

No. We lynch Coventry, we vig another likely scum. Stop trying to derail the Coventry lynch.

andrew wrote:unvote vote darkflashlight

i also have a town read on hoopla, my gut says its you, chkflip and someone else

andrew, vote Coventry. I don't care if DF is scum, he can be dealt with later.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #915 (isolation #125) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:34 pm

Forgot, andrew can't read unless I make it really blatant.

ANDREW, VOTE COVENTRY

zMuffinMan · Post Post #917 (isolation #126) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 5:11 pm

DF wrote:Before I disagree with you:

Muffin wrote:DFL is probably town

After I disagree with you:

Muffin wrote:I don't care if DF is scum, he can be dealt with later.

?????

Are you... retarded?

DF wrote:This is cute. I said he could vig Coventry if he really wants so whatever your last sentence was trying to imply is a lie. I don't see the point in killing her, the case was made up on the spot, but I don't have the final say, and regardless of vigging or lynching her, she's dead, and you win.

No, the plan isn't kill Coventry and whoever else, it's kill 2 likely scum from the non-PR pool, and the most likely scum in the non-PR pool are in the vig-pool, for reasons you don't want me to re-explain. So killing Andrew/Hoopla isn't an option, as far as I'm concerned. I personally don't care if Coventry is lynched or vigged, as long as someone else in the vig pool is also lynched and vigged today/tonight.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #919 (isolation #127) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 5:17 pm

PS: I don't get a say in who neil actually uses his vig shot on, but at least with this lynch I can do some analysis on who does or doesn't want the lynch and for what reasons.

Although I still request that neil uses his shot on someone in the vig pool and also announces it before nightfall to help the other PRs.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #920 (isolation #128) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 5:24 pm

btw, DF, who do you think is scum?

Are you voting Hoopla because you think she's scum or just because it 'gives more information' than an andrew lynch?

What do you think of the reason I think Hoopla/andrew are town?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #923 (isolation #129) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 6:23 pm

No, he isn't. Andrew is town, Coventry is not.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #925 (isolation #130) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 6:49 pm

...

I have no idea what you're talking about. Just vote Coventry.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #927 (isolation #131) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 7:52 pm

No, he's replacing out because he's busy...

zMuffinMan · Post Post #931 (isolation #132) » Fri Jul 15, 2011 9:43 pm

@Mod,

Coventry is voting Hoopla

And that votecount is funny

All my town reads, minus chk, on coventry, and my scum reads are split between hoopla and andrew. No surprises there.

zMuffinMan · Fri Jul 15, 2011 10:23 pm

Why not?

{Amrun, chkflip, Coventry, DarkFlashlight}

^ Where's the scum there, Quilford?

Is it 1 or 2 there?

zMuffinMan · Fri Jul 15, 2011 10:48 pm

ftr, lynching the players in the 'lynch pool' at this point is a joke. You should only be lynching one of them if you truly believe they are scum, and if you do, I'd like to hear reasons why.

And regardless of whether you think one of them is scum, there's almost no chance that they're both scum, so you have to have at least one suspect in the vig pool.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #938 (isolation #135) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:37 am

And that's it? Do you actually think andrew is scum? Why? And why do you think he volunteered for the lynch pool?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #941 (isolation #136) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:00 am

No, Amrun, but in this circumstance, it does make them both town. With a lynch pool of 2 people, and 1 scum already in the claimed PR group, they'd be suicidal to offer themselves up for lynching when there's a 50/50 chance they die D1 and a 100% chance they die by D2 (at least, according to what we had planned).

quilford wrote:This feels insincere; his ISO is terrible, etc.

No, quilford. That's not a proper answer. andrew's iso is ALWAYS terrible, that doesn't make him scum every game. And you didn't answer my other questions.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #943 (isolation #137) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:52 am

He doesn't put more effort in as either alignment, really. Probably more effort defending himself when he's scum than being retarded in general. He's just being retarded in general in this game.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #944 (isolation #138) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:57 am

Also never seen him gambit as scum. If he's scum in this game, I'd be surprised.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #946 (isolation #139) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:24 am

I don't really get it. Are you agreeing that it's unlikely scum would gimp themselves by volunteering for the lynch pool? If so, why vote Hoopla just for "information"?

Like I understand the reasoning behind your vote, and at least it's more acceptable than "derp, i think she's scum", but even if she hasn't done anything that makes you think she's town, she's still town just for volunteering herself.

The reason there was so much lashing out against my alteration to the plan was because everyone expected us to lynch between the two people who volunteered, just because that is what the plan suggested we do.

What about lynching someone from the vig pool today, vigging another tonight, and then considering Hoopla (or andrew) if we haven't hit scum before tomorrow and the non-vig PRs fail with their night actions?

Also, the hider could easily hide behind Hoopla or andrew and confirm their alignment.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #949 (isolation #140) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:07 am

....

^ That's who's one the Hoopla wagon with you, DF.

Posts like that are just... wow...

How does it make any sense to vig DF if Hoopla is town?

Why would the hider hide behind THE CLAIMED VIG?

How does it make any sense, whatsoever, to vig andrew if Hoopla is scum? You think andrew is scum with Hoopla and they both nominated themselves for the lynch pool with their third partner in the claimed PRs?

It baffles me, trying to understand the thought processes behind your posts.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #953 (isolation #141) » Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:48 pm

It's not really relevant to the game at the moment, but I feel I should point out that the hider dies if he hides behind anyone with a killing role, glowball, so it's a given that the hider is not going to hide behind the vig, with or without your friendly reminder.

Now, we have 1.5 days to reach a consensus and a whole bunch of lurkers plus a flaker.

Anyone who is not currently voting Coventry (or fuck, if you don't agree with a vote on Coventry, then whoever you're most suspicious of in the vig pool) should give reasons why.

"We need a lynch on anybody" is not an acceptable reason. I want to know whether you're actually suspicious of andrew/Hoopla, and if so, why? If not, why are you voting for them? What have I said that you disagree with?

DF wrote:This is a good idea, and gives me another idea. What if hider did this, but said who he was going to hide behind before night. That way scum can either take out vig and have a confirmed townie and PR the next day, or go for the hider, kill two townies, but vig lives past N1.

That depends mostly on the lynch/flip today.

What I'd like to see happen is this:

Lynch from vig pool today (Coventry is, imo, the best option).
Vig from vig pool tonight (neil should announce his target before we go to N1)
Hider hides behind one person in the lynch pool (confirms their alignment for tomorrow)
det-psych can do whatever they want, it's hard to give advice because it depends on whether they're actually the detective or the pysch

Tomorrow the game really begins.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #962 (isolation #142) » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:50 am

Coventry, who do you think is scum in the vig pool?

If MrBump came along and mod-confirmed Hoopla as town, who would you think is scum?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #966 (isolation #143) » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:44 am

coventry wrote:Speaking of which, when did Neil become one of your town reads to you as opposed to your highest suspicion? Was it the instant he claimed vig?

Yep, already covered why it's suicidal for scum to claim vig, so he's a town read. If I'm wrong, he's dead tonight anyway, so it's not a big deal.

coventry wrote:What was the point of the vig pool the way that you were using it?

The same as it was originally going to be used for.

coventry wrote:If that was the case, was it a good idea to pressure members of the vig pool in retrospect? Do you think your actions improved Hoopla's plan, as she seems to suggest?

Retrospect is great, isn't it? If I knew neil would react the way he did, I probably wouldn't have provoked him. But he did, and there's nothing I can do about it now. There were plenty of ways he could have handled it without claiming, but meh.

coventry wrote:Do you think your actions improved Hoopla's plan, as she seems to suggest?

I'm not actually sure where she implied that, I think you're misunderstanding what Hoopla has actually said, but I do actually think my last-minute change was an improvement, and I've already covered why (several times, actually).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #967 (isolation #144) » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:45 am

And er, that was the hammer, and neil hasn't had a chance to announce his vig target. meh.

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:35 pm

VOTE: yoyo

<psych

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:36 pm

ps: investigated quilford, but I got no PM back, so I guess that means no result? Not too sure.

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:00 pm

ironically, town wins are meant to be rare in hard boiled. Perfect town wins? Probably

slightly

rarer.

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:48 pm

eh, it's too bad you had to replace into a pretty bad spot. Silverbullet claimed PR for some reason, and after those two deaths, it's not like you could really do anything.

GG

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:56 pm

I'm happy overall with my play. There was a slump in the middle of the game where I just couldn't give two shits about this game so I was just prod dodging.

But after the claims finished, I like to think I stepped up my game a bit.

I'm going to guess Oversoul was targeted N1 and he hid behind andrew or something.

IMO, setup wasn't completely broken. We sort of cheated the system because of the 4th PR claim. If Silverbullet hadn't claimed a PR, it might have gone a bit differently.

I was probably a bit of a dick to some players (notably chkflip, glowball) but there were 2 reasons for that:

1) I was trying to do everything I could to avoid being the target of the NK (obviously we benefited a lot if the hider was targeted)
2) You guys just suck at reading me

It wasn't just me being a dick for the sake of it.

Would have liked to see this played out without the mass replacements.

Still, was fun towards the end of D1. At least for me.

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:12 pm

prob quil

would be funny if it's amrun again, though.

zMuffinMan · Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:18 pm

Coventry wasn't luck, though. I legit had town reads on chk, df, quil and called 2/3 scum in {amrun, coventry, neil}. Put the most pressure on neil, he flipped out and claimed vig. Put pressure on Coventry after that for the way she was handling her "suspicion" of Hoopla and her responses around my plan and trying to put me in a bad light for "outing" neil. She was obvscum from my perspective, which is why I was so forceful in getting her lynched.

zMuffinMan · Sun Jul 24, 2011 6:05 pm

I think it could be won by scum with strong town-looking play and lots of bussing. +a bit of luck with PRs.

zMuffinMan · Sun Jul 24, 2011 6:07 pm

Also Albert suggested adding a scum roleblocker after the last hard boiled. Which would hinder this plan a lot.