Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[neil1113]

It's pretty obvious either Silver or Muffin are the ones lying. I'm pretty confident in Glow and Oversoul as real PR's. So here's something I propose:

Why don't we ask one of them to claim their role? Whichever one we are more confident in being the liar (which seems to be apparent is Silver from the two) and this way we're not outing all the power roles? When said person claims, we see if we have a counter claim. If not, we lynch the other. If we do, we lynch them? And if we're wrong between Muffin and Silver, and neither turn out to be scum or CC'd, then the vig shoots one of the other two, which then gives the vig a 50/50 chance of hitting scum instead of a 1/4 chance. It nearly guarantees a scum kill by the start of Day 2, and it promises at least one scum revealed by Day 2 as well.

[Quilford]

Silver replaced in and claimed PR, right? She was second last of all of us to claim, correct? Glowball then cc'd (which I think was an excellent move), and we have one more PR claim than we should.

If Silver's the fake PR then Swankedelic is almost certainly scum as well; she would have known that it was safe to claim the last PR slot

without any chance of a cc, provided everyone was telling the truth (which Glow didn't).

I like this- it shows though. However, scum would have to know that someone

wasn't

telling the truth if there were only 2 claims when there were supposed to be 3. So although the possibility of Silver AND Swank being scum is a possibility it's more likely that Silver is scum by himself who possibly miscalculated the set up and thought everyone had already claimed or that scum is in an earlier claimer like zMuffinMan who was prepared to face a counterclaim or thought that one of us wouldn't claim.

I would like to follow through with the plan as a 3/4 split. I would also like to see who volunteers for the lynch pool. So, how does everyone feel about carrying on with the plan and leaving the PR sorting to the scum? Like I said, that fake claim will HAVE to eventually out himself if they start PR hunting they just narrow down the possibilities.

I thought of this too, but I think that scum would

leap

at the opportunity to claim an uncc'd PR slot under the impression that the actual other CC had merely misinterpreted the plan or forgotten to claim, or whatever. This may seem a little hard to believe from our point of view because we've been laboriously going over the plan for much of the game and as such it's pretty well embedded in our heads, but for a replacement it wouldn't take more than a few hours to skim the plan. They forget the actual timeframe that the events of the game took place over.

[glowball]

It's pretty obvious either Silver or Muffin are the ones lying. I'm pretty confident in Glow and Oversoul as real PR's. So here's something I propose:

Why don't we ask one of them to claim their role? Whichever one we are more confident in being the liar (which seems to be apparent is Silver from the two) and this way we're not outing all the power roles? When said person claims, we see if we have a counter claim. If not, we lynch the other. If we do, we lynch them? And if we're wrong between Muffin and Silver, and neither turn out to be scum or CC'd, then the vig shoots one of the other two, which then gives the vig a 50/50 chance of hitting scum instead of a 1/4 chance. It nearly guarantees a scum kill by the start of Day 2, and it promises at least one scum revealed by Day 2 as well.

NINJA'D
The problem with this is that scum will claim a PR that they want outed. So even if we lynch that one scum there are 2 others that will attempt to kill the real PR and we have no PRs for protection. For instance, some people think that the Det/Psy is a very valuable role- scum fake claiming this role would force the real person into cc-ing thus outing themselves for the NK. I would prefer to not make things so easy for scum and we just lynch out of the pools like we had planned originally- AT LEAST for one night phase leave everyone claiming PR alone while we gather information

[Quilford]

Then again, my thoughts work the other way, too: scum have had longer to ponder the plan, so zMuffin claiming PR as scum makes a lot more sense than silver jumping into the game and claiming PR as scum.

[glowball]

I'm torn because zMuffinMan is being extremely scummy and isn't even trying to change his attitude. I am trying to figure out if he's just being a jerk or acting out like childish scum. Either way it's upsetting because if he is town then he's making this harder than necessary.

[neil1113]

I'm torn because zMuffinMan is being extremely scummy and isn't even trying to change his attitude. I am trying to figure out if he's just being a jerk or acting out like childish scum. Either way it's upsetting because if he is town then he's making this harder than necessary.

I can say from my experience with him, he doesn't normally play this way. I think he might be on my level, and just be fed up with all this "talk about playing Mafia" but very little actual playing... He could be scum that's just fed up with it and doesn't care if he gets lynched or not, or he could be town just fed up with it and doesn't care if he gets lynched or not... lol so the whole tell he's acting like right now is null at best unfortunately.

[MrBump]

WHOA. WHOA. POSTS!?

So my laptop just died, and if I don't get it fixed within a few days then I fail my Open University course I've been doing for ten weeks, so I'm going to be quite busy the next little while... don't expect a vote count or anything, really xD

[evilpacman18]

Marill why you doin me like this

[evilpacman18]

I am trying to figure out if he's just being a jerk or acting out like childish scum. Either way it's upsetting because if he is town then he's making this harder than necessary.

It's funny cuz this is exactly what I think about you lying.

[evilpacman18]

neil, it's not pretty obvious. I think we can agree Oversoul looks like a PR for sure but of the rest of the PR claims it's up in the air. And frankly I have a town read on zMuffin even though his meta doesn't match the experience I have with him either.

[MrBump]

Scratch that, my laptop undied. It has been reincarnated, so your mod is back. xP

[Amrun]

You have a townread on glowball, too, or did you forget, pacman?

I like neil's plan better. The 5/3 spliy was good for a particular reason which no longer exists with 2 scum and a 4/3 split. If we MUST do the split today, then it should be a 2/5 split (2 in lynch, 5 in vig).

Quil, are you replacing out or not?

[DarkFlashlight]

We can't go through PR claims, scum will intentionally CC the last claim so that all PR's get outted.


Quilford's theory was good, but it throws off the plan, assuming that Swank wasn't going to be in the lynch pool. We could technically compensate for that though, by forcing him into it, and having someone who was going to be in the lynch pool go in the vig pool. It'd be the same thing, but taking his choice away. It's not like he's gonna make one anyway.


My idea though, is go through the plan with 4 PR's, 2 lynch pool, and 6 vig pool. D1&D2 we lynch the two people in the lynch pool, vig shoots out of the vig pool like planned. On D3, two PR's will most likely be dead. Both PR's will claim the same thing, since one will be the actual last PR, and scum won't CC the confirmed dead, so on D3, we lynch one of those two, if we lynch wrong, vig can shoot the other, or not, it doesn't really matter*. If scum decide not to take out PR's in an attempt to throw off D3, then we can use the PR's findings eliminate the guesswork out of the D3 lynch.

*If vig decides to keep shooting out of the vig pool, then we have an obvious lynch the next day. If vig shoots scum, then we get to lynch out of the vig pool the next day. Same thing happens either way, just by different people at different times.

That's pretty much what Amrun just said, but I used more words.


My bets on fakeclaiming go: Muffin->Silver->Oversoul->Glowball. I really doubt Glowball would try something like that as scum, not to mention all the PR softclaims earlier. It also makes sense with wanting to claim last. Muffin flaunting his PR-invulnerability just seems like an easy way to go, "Why would I do that if I knew there was going to be a CC?"

Of course, the initial thought I had was that Glowball only CC'ed so that she could lynch Muffin, but I'm really hoping that's not true, since if she CC'ed just to do that, she's for-sure lynching town and throwing the game. I'm assuming nobody would actually do that.

[neil1113]

So on D3, we have potentially 2 PR's dead, 2 PR's still alive, 1 being the fake claiming scum, AND we THEN take the gambit to see which one is scum and which one isn't? So by D4 according to your plan, we potentially have 4 dead townies, including all 3 of the PR's? How is this a better option then my plan, in which we potentially only have to out one PR, and can exchange a PR for a Scum by Day 2?

[DarkFlashlight]

Your plan is too open-ended. We have to take a gambit on guessing who we think is fakeclaiming between four rather than two, and if we're wrong, we have to cycle through all of the PR's and everyone will be revealed. It's not a necessary risk D1. You act like the PR's won't die in your scenario just because you didn't go all the way to D4 in your example. The PR's die regardless of if the fakeclaimer is alive, there are two other scum.

It's unlikely that Oversoul or Glowball is scum, but not impossible. You're writing off that possibility completely, which I don't like.

[evilpacman18]

You have a townread on glowball, too, or did you forget, pacman?

I like neil's plan better. The 5/3 spliy was good for a particular reason which no longer exists with 2 scum and a 4/3 split. If we MUST do the split today, then it should be a 2/5 split (2 in lynch, 5 in vig).

Quil, are you replacing out or not?

Yes I have a townread on glowball and I don't see her gambiting like this as scum but it's quite possible and I like to stick to lynch all liars policy. In other words I had a town read. Now I have a weak town read.

[evilpacman18]

All of these plans pretty much ignore scum shots.

[glowball]

You have a townread on glowball, too, or did you forget, pacman?

I like neil's plan better. The 5/3 spliy was good for a particular reason which no longer exists with 2 scum and a 4/3 split. If we MUST do the split today, then it should be a 2/5 split (2 in lynch, 5 in vig).

Quil, are you replacing out or not?

Yes I have a townread on glowball and I don't see her gambiting like this as scum but it's quite possible

and I like to stick to lynch all liars policy.

In other words I had a town read. Now I have a weak town read.

So, do you think it would be in the town's best interest to lynch me today?

Also, here are some brief reads.
Oversoul=town
Neil=town
Muff=null
Amrun=null
Pacman=scum
Silverbullet=scum
Hoopla=null???
Quilford=town
andrew=leaning scum
DarkFlashlight=leaning town
Swank=town...based on all of the posts before but currently I have nothing to go off of.

[zMuffinMan]

Best plan is go ahead with 3/5 split. The only reason it was going to be a 3/6 split was in case of all 3 scum hiding in the vig pool. Guess what. That can't happen now. 3/5 plan works exactly the same as 3/6 plan, for all intents and purposes.

Discuss claims/counter-claims/whatever D2, if necessary.

[DarkFlashlight]

We put 6 in the vig pool at least partially to dilute it enough that scum trying to hit vig would be futile. Taking one away just makes it easier. What I suggested is the same thing as the 3/6 split except the 3rd person in the lynch pool isn't decided until D3.


We should see what Hoopla thinks. It was her plan anyway.

[zMuffinMan]

....

OK,

DFL

Think this through very slowly.

Why was it 6 people in the vig pool? So that if there were 3 scum hiding there, they'd have to guess out of 3 townies who the vig is.

Now think very carefully about why a 3/5 split would still be doing the exact same thing right now.

[Amrun]

Yes, I suppose.

Dislike pacman's fencesitting and bullet's continual lack of reads even after saying he never gave them because I "didn't ask him," like I should have to ask.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think I've given reads, either. Who are we waiting on replacements for now? swank and... I assume Quilford is back now?

[silverbullet999]

@amrun

Why are you so worried about my reads specifically?

[Amrun]

Silverbullet, take your wildest guess.

Zmuffin, you should.