Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Ectomancer]

Sure.

vote MassClaim

[Ectomancer]

Ecto: Do you really want a massclaim, or are you looking for reactions? Because my reaction is NO!

It's both my sarcastic response to Wombat and a dangling shiny bauble. Darkdude summed up Wombat's suggestion better, but I couldn't resist leaving a space of ambiguity to be explored.

[Ectomancer]

Did you dig up the numbers on 12 players, night start? I know that somewhere is a chart on whether you should no lynch or not with night starts.'
If we did it, would you presume to do it with little discussion, hence giving scum less to work with, and our information roles have another night to work. Or shall we scumhunt as usual, and then upon finding a case, abandon it for the no lynch because math might say so? Shall we hope a town power reveals himself in the hoped that it will lead to the capture of scum? And still no lynch?
Perhaps you have a different thought on the future as you would like.

[Ectomancer]

Tarballs does look like he is interested in reserving a seat on the bus, but he wants to make sure it is a good one.

[Ectomancer]

Nought's had, all's spent,
Where our desire is got without content;
'Tis safer to be that which we destroy
Than by destruction dwell in doubtful joy.

Deep dig for the answer you seek.

Psst. The poetry forum is over

there

. You're in the mafia forum, just fyi

[Ectomancer]

Nought's had, all's spent,
Where our desire is got without content;
'Tis safer to be that which we destroy
Than by destruction dwell in doubtful joy.

Deep dig for the answer you seek.

Psst. The poetry forum is over

there

. You're in the mafia forum, just fyi

Psst Psst. this is not poetry (and lol at you for not knowing what ti is) and also psst psst, read it...it has relevance

Im not a Shakespeare fanboi. Say what is on your tongue, and not the The Bard's.

[Ectomancer]

^..I wanna stab the cat (in your avatar) and decapitate its head.

Yes, but what does that have to do with the game of mafia? Any thoughts on that topic?

[Ectomancer]

The days usually get shorter as people die off and you wont always need a deadline. We could vote someone off today if we really wanted to, but in general, a longer day benefits the town.

[Ectomancer]

Furthermore, on the topic of claims, I am going to have to presume that puta has hinted at his/her claim with the lady macbeth stuff and the violent post about killing ecto's cat, and that he/she/it is somehow involved with the serial killer/mafia.

What benefit do you suppose he'd have by breadcrumbing to be scum, of all things?

Perhaps he thinks that is what he is supposed to do...
He's pretty new as well.

A Momentary Lapse of Reason?

I think the n00b card snaps when stretched that far.

[Ectomancer]

I just dont see how breadcrumbing scum (in the opinion of a few) = n00b player.
Unhelpful will have to be judged by whether anyone will decifer the code after Puta dies.
You do realize that death is coming your way Puta? If you are town, arranging for your death on day 1 does not seem to be an optimal play, though I do know of a couple cases where it might. What exactly are you about? Are you trying to get lynched?

[Ectomancer]

Which is not in your nature? Not hinting at your role, or not helping? Also, this looks like a near simulpost, so could you come back and answer the questions that I directed towards you?

[Ectomancer]

Having re-read the last few pages, I don't particularly like some people's jumping on the Puta wagon. Tarballs's vote seemed like yet another case of a guy trying to reserve a good spot on a wagon. He's now done it twice, the L-3 vote on both Rage and Puta.

I

really

don't like darkdude's:

Not much happened yet?

Unvote: tubby216
Vote: Puta Puta

Reasons are helpful maybe?

As for Puta himself, clean slate in my mind. Now just start doing some useful scumhunting.

Read post 126. Do you see what a good 'ol L-2 will do for someone's posting habits?
On Tarball, do you think he L-3 votes were natural, or forced? Can you explain whichever choice you make?

[Ectomancer]

Post 121 and 122 are a start, but can you explain

why

you think that based on those quotes?

I have an inherent scumhunting-mechanism built into my brain from years of playing Epic Mafia, those 2 posts both sounded non-committal.

Tarball did tons of fence-sitting pointing out how he doesn't like this or that but no solid FoS or Vote. gorball does the same thing, criticizing almost everyone and in the end abruptly votes for Rage which makes no sense. Very scummy imo.

In post 122, you quoted Gorckat and then said "Tarballs buddy". I took it to mean that he was Tarball's scumbuddy, but this quote is saying that he is simply doing the same thing. In that case, you might not be saying they are scumpartners, but simply following the same scummy pattern.
So...connection or no? Need to understand exactly where you stand on that.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, I'm not saying everyone on that wagon is suspect. Just a couple people. Given that you're not on any wagon, I'm also wondering why you're defending people without letting them answer on their own.

As for Tarballs, there is now a pattern of joining big wagons at opportune times. I don't know if that's deliberate, or it just happened that way. He hasn't posted enough for me to make a full judgment. The only time his one big/useful post mentioned Puta was about him being scummy for the "killing a cat" comment, which I took to be at best a joke on Tarballs' part. It feels like EasyWagoning at the moment.

[/quote]

Defending? It's called educating. You showed a lack of understanding regarding pressure votes being used to change the behavior of a player. Case, point, and example laid out for you right here in this game.
In any case, assume you could interpret my post as defending someone, what relevance would my lack of a presence on a wagon have to do with that defense?

Now a couple questions of you. If you are so sold on Tarball, why is your vote still on Rage, who is one of the recipients of Tarball's votes that you are using to make your case? Is that a sloppy bus? If not, isn't your case on Tarball dependent upon Rage being town?

Also of interest...why would you give Puta a clean slate? What comment would have inspired you to make that statement?

Summary: I see you mudslinging with seemingly contradictory premises. Your vote is sticking to Rage while you probe reactions to your statements about 2 other players.
Then, on the flip side, you give a "clean slate" to a player at L-2, whose alignment just might get revealed today.

Isn't that amusing?

[Ectomancer]

It was meant for another game in which I was trying to portray myself as a devious anti-townie (not saying whether I am or not, lmfao)...my 'character' in the other game is a Shakespeare-obsessed fanboy while I plan to play this game more rationally cuz I actually know what (the fuck) is going on.

Do not talk about ongoing games in other threads! You know good and well that I am in that other game!

[Ectomancer]

I have evidence that the comment Puta made about posting in the wrong game was either sarcasm or plainly a lie. Look at Puta's posts in this game in isolation. This

IS

Puta's Shakespeare fanboy game. The only mistake I can see made is that the quotes (IIRC) were not from Shakespeare,

not

that this was the wrong game for those quotes.

vote Puta

I'm done with this.

[Ectomancer]

A point in favor of Puta's honesty: I did meta him and I found a game (which you are also in, Ecto) and he does have one post with a Shakespeare quote, chronologically after he's supposedly noticed his mistake. However, not all of his consequent posts there are made in the form of a quote.

BTW I really don't like how Ecto has just jumped wagon and put Puta at L-1, at least not for those reasons. I don't see how Puta being anti-town is a definite scumtell.

unvote

You are WRONG. Flat out wrong. Puta's first Shakespearean quote occurred on Nov 11th in THIS game. She/He/It continued posting in that manner in THIS game. Go meta that again since I cant discuss ongoing games. Please dont jump in with this crap.

McCavity, I'll get to you. I had your response ready, copied the text, went back a page, hit quote, made a mistake and copied from a 2nd page I had open and lost the response.

Make no mistake as to my motivations. This is a POLICY lynch. If you dont like that, then policy lynch ME because you dont like policy lynches.

[Ectomancer]

Im pushing the policy lynch because Im pushing the policy lynch. Do you opportunistically pair people much?

[Ectomancer]

unvote

I cant push a policy lynch. I'm angry. Site rules being broken. It was obviously not a mistake. Look at the quotes.

Reasons are helpful maybe?

I thought it was clear that I disapproved of the way he's been posting.

...I confused my roles/game with another one...opsies...anyways I have no problem with dying....

Would it be against any of the rules to tell us which game this was?

YES (talking about ongoing is a no no)
and sorry my eyes skipped over it.

It was meant for another game in which I was trying to portray myself as a devious anti-townie (not saying whether I am or not, lmfao)...my 'character' in the other game is a Shakespeare-obsessed fanboy while I plan to play this game more rationally cuz I actually know what (the fuck) is going on.

But I agree with you that you cant policy lynch without going against your win condition. It gets into that whole "what's the spirit of the game" debate.

But no, Im not defending by proxy.

[Ectomancer]

Why ThAdmiral? I'd have to say you should address his comment that your hints all lead to killers.

[Ectomancer]

The irony

[Ectomancer]

Straight forward for you McCavity, you were slinging mud at two players, and the one mud ball would invalidate the other, then as a player is nearing lynch, you back off and give them a clean slate so as to avoid any cupability if they turn up town. Your last statement goes along with this idea. "I'd much prefer to not have to go with a policy lynch. " ....but you will right?

[Ectomancer]

Explain the difference between asking for a modkill and a policy lynch for me McCavity?

[Ectomancer]

The end result is the same, a player is removed. That's far different than getting a replacement. Yet I noted you put getting a replacement right in with 2 ways of removing a player.
The difference is, for a policy lynch, it will take a majority of players. We are responsible for the choice we make.
But by appealing to the mod for a modkill, you are asking for the same result, but responsibility for it assigned to the higher authority here, the mod.

So...why would you prefer a choice that removes culpability for action over the godly power of a modkill again? I dont agree that a day would be "wasted" with a policy lynch.

[Ectomancer]

Suppose the mod says neither a replacement, nor a modkill is coming. What do you do next?

(P.S. - Modkill and Policy lynch both end result in dead player. How can you even think to argue that point?)

[Ectomancer]

Does modkill end the day like policy lynch does?

Depends upon the mod and all the factors they have to consider. Something they wont do lightly.
But as I said, whether it is still day, or night, a player is dead. Just that one makes players commit to a position, the other is a plea to authority to do it for you.

[Ectomancer]

He is also at L-1, so it might be a good time for him to claim.

I agree it is time for a Puta claim.

[Ectomancer]

Unless you can show me that you have been playing to your win condition, I'll make sure to check the names on the list before game signups. There is one given in a mafia game. That is that all players are playing to win.
You apparently seem to think that posting Shakespeare and then dying so that *queue choir* "All will be revealed! AaaaAAA!" is the way for you to win.

Death Wish granted.

vote Puta Puta

[Ectomancer]

A couple possibilities for what happened last night. My questions would be, does a player have to use what the inventor gave them that night, or

can

they wait or do they

have

to wait until the following night to use it?

If that was a 1 shot vig, then scum was either role or doc blocked.

If there is someone hanging out with a gun, then that was scum's target last night.

I also think we dont know whether town or scum was the recipient of the gun inventor.

[Ectomancer]

So we could have two 1 shot guns out there, or scum got blocked and the n0 one got used.

[Ectomancer]

Okay, so Macavity gets killed and Korts immediately tells everyone he thinks it could be a vig kill. That sounds WAY off to me. Sure, going back, it does seem that his comment is supported by his attacks against Macavity yesterday, but as far as I can tell he was pretty much alone and there never was a notable amount of suspicion on Macavity from the town in general. I do not see why a vig would kill him.

Am I missing something here? I do not see why we're even discussing the possibility of vig kill and scum being blocked etc. Wouldn't it be most logical to assume that was our scum kill for the night?

Right now it seems plausible that Korts was attempting to set up a vig claim.

We had a gun inventor. It seems plausible to me that he would have given his gun away n0 and also (by my mod list of actions), he would have given another on n1 if he could give one away every night.
We had 1 kill last night. Something happened there. I dont think stifling conversation about it is useful.

[Ectomancer]

Korts gets a QFT.

It appears to me that scum right now knows pretty much what happened there. So I dont see it as counter-productive for the town to think about where we might be based upon the information we have.
Sometimes certain pro-town roles may have decisions to make and need as much input as they can, but find it difficult to bring up in group because it would quickly point them out. Discussing an issue gets them the chance to talk about it without them standing out.
I dont see your objection to discussing the gun inventor Darkdude.

[Ectomancer]

A couple possibilities for what happened last night. My questions would be, does a player have to use what the inventor gave them that night, or

can

they wait or do they

have

to wait until the following night to use it?

If that was a 1 shot vig, then scum was either role or doc blocked.

If there is someone hanging out with a gun, then that was scum's target last night.

I also think we dont know whether town or scum was the recipient of the gun inventor.

vote Darkdude

As Korts pointed out, his response to my statement did not equate to what I said. He even went as far as to ask why it would be more likely that last night's kill was a vig kill. Well, I didn't say that. It looks to me in that paragraph quoted above that I listed the possibilities with pretty much equal weight.
Darkdude then goes on and attempts to stifle conversation about the event. Why?
If he was the Vig, his kill is used, he is back to whatever he was, and he has a bit of an alibi of what he was doing that night.
If he is one of the roles that performed an action that could incriminate or validate someone involved with the death, you would want people talking about the event, hoping for that "ahah! I got you!" moment.
But if he is scum, there are a number of reasons he might not want us to talk about it. There are yet roles available that could have thrown in a wrench somewhere.
Funny thing is, I'm not as concerned about discussing it so much today anymore. Let anyone with a gun do what they will, so scum has no idea. They could have scum roleblockers, etc.
No, I'm much more concerned about motivations today. I think Darkdude's actions usually come from bad guys. Bad guys need to be lynched...or shot...but better lynched. We dont want a mafia doc to get the chance at blocking those one shot guns.
Still dont believe that Darkdude is scum?
Then tell me why he would discourage discussion about one of our discoveries (the gun inventor), yet encourage discussion about our amnesiac cop. He even goes so far as to

ask the recipient of the message to breadcrumb!

So you can kill him tonight before he reveals the only result we might have? (assuming puta puta even sent in a name) If he is going to breadcrumb, just come out with the result now, and at least we get something. Someone will be forced to declare another player either town or scum, and if that other player dies, and it turns up wrong, it incriminates the first player.

[Ectomancer]

Okay, I didn't realize that would be an L1. I'm not that confident in my vote.

unvote

I still have an FOS BOW

I don't have enough to make it an L1

Scummy unvote after a new wagon begins gaining positive feedback while admitting he wasn't confident in his vote in the first place.

fos ChuckRock

Korts thought that any scum was already on the BoW wagon. That was a pretty weak manner of slipping off of it.

[Ectomancer]

Your case is weak next to mine Rage. Vote Darkdude. He is scum. He attempts to blatantly manipulate the conversation to only include the part he finds relevant. Tries to portray the gun inventor discussion as revealing player intentions, yet asks for a breadcrumb from the recipient of the cop investigation.

I did not ask anyone to breadcrumb, as I was not sure if it would work.

Yeah, you did. See bolded below.

Also, a couple of other things:

I'm also going to do a reread of all of Puta's posts to see if he left any hints/clues as to who he investigated and it's result.

No use. He was amnesiac cop. Which reminds me...

It seems like we should have someone here with his Night 0 result, unless it was Macavity. Needless to say, if it is scum, the person should come out immediately. But what is optimal move if result is town?

I was just about to write "don't say anything unless that player is about to be lynched", but then remembered that this information may get lost if the player dies before saying it... so maybe breadcrumb first, and then reveal it when player number in the game lowers to have a large enough impact?

When player numbers lower? Like when the guy who breadcrumbed is dead?

Darkdude, I dont have to give all the examples of where a conversation about the gun inventor and the night kill might lead. That is the purpose of the conversation itself.
All I have to prove is that you appear to have a reason to

not

discuss it, coupled with your opposite request of having a player with guilty/innocent reveal themselves through a breadcrumb.

That's it for me. My decision on your alignment is done until concrete evidence to the contrary arises, likely your death unless you can get someone to step forward with an innocent on you.

[Ectomancer]

Rage - I've got scummy actions and motivations, you've crawled up newbie butt and have remained wedged there all game. You've got 3 people on the wagon, including yourself, and one of the others cant figure out whether he's supposed to be on the wagon or not.

As for Darkdude:

Yeah, you did. See bolded below.

See bolded below.

It seems like we should have someone here with his Night 0 result, unless it was Macavity. Needless to say, if it is scum, the person should come out immediately.

But what is optimal move if result is town?

I was just about to write "don't say anything unless that player is about to be lynched", but then remembered that this information may get lost if the player dies before saying it... so maybe breadcrumb first, and then reveal it when player number in the game lowers to have a large enough impact?

Clearly the "maybe breadcrumb" part is my thoughts on what may be best. I was looking for what other players thought. I merely suggested that breadcrumbing could be a way to deal with this. You claimed that I ASKED for the person to breadcrumb, which is not the case here.

Right, it's ok to ask about a breadcrumb here, but not ok to talk about the gun inventor?
You are really trying hard to squirm out of this. You said:

But what is optimal move if result is town?

and then go on to tell us what you thought the optimal move was at first:

I was just about to write "don't say anything unless that player is about to be lynched"

followed by the "but....

but then remembered that this information may get lost if the player dies before saying it

tells us why that isn't optimal, and so then gives his idea of what would be optimal:

so maybe breadcrumb first, and then reveal it when player number in the game lowers to have a large enough impact?

We get to our request for breadcrumb, phrased with hope for town's approval.

When player numbers lower? Like when the guy who breadcrumbed is dead?

This is just being nonsensical...

A Pshaw argument. As scum you get a guy to breadcrumb that he has information so you can kill him for it! In your request for the breadcrumb, you specifically asked that the player

give

the breadcrumb and then

wait

until we have lower player numbers to reveal it!

Coupled with this,

Your case is weak next to mine Rage. Vote Darkdude. He is scum. He attempts to blatantly manipulate the conversation to only include the part he finds relevant. Tries to portray the gun inventor discussion as revealing player intentions, yet asks for a breadcrumb from the recipient of the cop investigation.

Makes it look exactly like a case of tunnel vision.

Really cant refute the case, so tries an ad hominem attack against me, suggesting that I have a personality flaw that causes me to overly fixate on my own case.

Anyone see it any differently?

[Ectomancer]

[quote="darkdude"]
I know what you mean, but suggesting that my "When player numbers are lower" is a scummy statement is nonsense. It's a classic case of tunnel vision; you simply slap scumminess on a neutral statement.
[quote]

Asking someone to expose themselves with a breadcrumb, and then following it up with a request to not actually share the information until later (when player numbers are lower), gives both an identifying post somewhere and time for scum to off the bearer. There is no neutral there, that's a scummy move.

[Ectomancer]

Yeah, really.

Derisive labeling of quite serious accusations against you is not a defense, just in case anyone might have been confused by the latin.

[Ectomancer]

It's a nice read Rage, some parts make sense, others I have serious doubt of. You also left off half of the entire case in your response. It isn't just about his investigation result hunt.

Why is DarkDude trying to discuss the Cop, but not the Gun Inventor?

Your theory is that he has the result, so would want to talk about that, but not about the Inventor?

That still gives even LESS of an excuse to try to shut down conversation about the gun inventor. If he is in the position of needing some talk in his area, he would certainly understand how there could be a need for talk in the other area.

My guess (99%) is that there is no investigation result. Puta made no effort to play this game or any other that I know of. You can meta that. So, no, I dont think DarkDude or anyone else has a result to reveal (not a real one anyhow).

Without that, you are left with DarkDude being pro-town and no information trying to push conversation in one direction, while stifling it in another direction? I'm not buying that. The pro-town part I mean.

[Ectomancer]

1) This question is aimed at Ectomancer and Korts. Why did you discuss the possibility of a vig-kill if neither of you wanted to set up a claim or out the killer? What did both of you wish to achieve by talking about it?

Did you know that with a possibility of 2 guns out there (whoever has them), plus a scum kill at night, that if we lynch town today, both guns are used on town (not far fetched if 1 or 2 guns went to scum), and then scum does their kill on town, we lose in end game tomorrow? That's assuming 3 scum in a 12 player game.
I think it's a topic that needs to be discussed, with possiblities put into people's heads so that even if we dont know where the snake is, we might know what it could look like before it gets a chance to bite us.

4)

Ectomancer

, how can you be 99% sure that an investigation result does not exist in the game? How does darkdude saying he's 90% sure you are wrong, in a rebuttal to you saying you are 99% sure, influence your thinking?

That's my read on Puta after being in 2 games with him. It's my opinion that all he wanted was to disrupt the game, and wouldnt have bothered with something like sending in investigations or anything to do with actually playing the game. Puta was a troll.
That 1% means that Im not Omniscient.
I think DarkDude is scum, so that 90% rebuttal didnt mean anything to me.

Your case is weak next to mine Rage. Vote Darkdude. He is scum. He attempts to blatantly manipulate the conversation to only include the part he finds relevant. Tries to portray the gun inventor discussion as revealing player intentions, yet asks for a breadcrumb from the recipient of the cop investigation.

Also, defending implies that I'm trying to protect him from being lynched. I am not trying to defend him, I'm trying to sort out the discrepancies I think I see in and against the case. I'm not doing a very good job, but at least I'm willing to let others to correct me.

I didnt say anything about you trying to protect DarkDude from being lynched. I'm telling you that my scumpenis is bigger than your scumpenis, so come join my wagon. If you wanted to criticize me for this statement, it would be that this could be seen as a proxy defense of BoW.

[Ectomancer]

jacked up the quote tags

[Ectomancer]

Oh ok. Well, mine is still bigger

[Ectomancer]

By the way I've reread the darkdude case, and I've gone off it. It's the question mark. I believe darkdude when he says he was truly asking whether that was the best course of action (for the record it clearly wasn't). So

unvote

.
As much as I wanted to believe we had "caught" scum, I don't think we have. He may turn out to be scum, but I don't think the argument on him now is valid.

You know that is only the half of it. In ordinary circumstances you might give him the benefit of the doubt if we were only looking at that paragraph. The problem arises when he is encouraging discussion on one topic, and then flat out asking "Why are we even talking about it?" on a parallel topic. ie Dead power roles and what that mean for us.
Well, why is he asking for someone with information to breadcrumb, thus exposing themselves, and then telling them to hold that information until later? (oh sorry, it was a 'suggestion', oh, I mean a 'suggestion to town for their input')

This isn't a single sentence or paragraph. This is methodical encouragement of dicussion in one area, coupled with an anti-town suggestion, followed by the discouragement of discussion in the same topical area (night results) for no apparent reason other than Darkdude doesnt see why we should talk about it?

What the hell? Giving Darkdude the benefit of a double standard? Give him a pass on discouraging conversation because he didn't see the point in talking about it, but then give him another pass for an anti-town suggestion because he was trying to encourage conversation? You don't see the hypocrisy in doing that?

[Ectomancer]

I just noticed that Ectomancer and IH haven't posted in the last three days.

mod:

would you please prod Ectomancer and IH?

Well, I've said my piece on DarkDude. I told Rage what I thought of the case on BoW, who is now you. Im now in my waiting for others to chime in phase.

On Puta: I also had no knowledge of a Gimbo, much less that Puta might be it.he.she.

[Ectomancer]

post

[Ectomancer]

IH is in this game?

[Ectomancer]

this level of participation is crap.

all of the lurks can't be scum, but their collective behavior sure does make it easier for scum to win.

My case against DarkDude has been expressed, re-expressed, and withstood questioning put to it. I stand by it.
However, there is no good reason for me to repeat it ad infinitum, nor is there really anything else in regards to DarkDude to expound upon. It is a simple case with 2 parts that make the whole of it.

If there is a case that I can be convinced of and we need the lynch before a deadline, I might switch votes to facilitate it, but you can expect my vote to be right back on DarkDude, rehashing the same case.

[Ectomancer]

I don't see the motivation to bus at this stage. They could have just gone along with one of the other cases and gone into day 3 with all their people alive.

With this level of activity do you think the mafia would really feel the need to bus?

I disagree. The prevalent cases are on a guy who gets replaced a lot, who replaced in for a player who didn't play much and another on an experienced player who just got here, replacing in for a newbie with baggage. Those aren't solid platforms for a lynch. The first would collapse on its own (has anyone ever actually lynched a lurker? on this site?), and the 2nd doesn't have much gas either. Also, as Adel alluded to, rather than launch a campaign to get her lynched, it would be easier to just NK her and lynch a softer target.

But...

Adel will need to provide individual reasonings on both myself and Korts, just in preparation for your anticipated demise. We don't have the luxury of testing us both, and we will have certainly lost the game should Korts prove to be town.

[Ectomancer]

Go re-read, then smack your forehead and say, "Ahh, I got it."

[Ectomancer]

*sigh*

10 players. I think that's 7 town 3 scum right now, assuming a 9 town 3 scum start.

lynch scum today
7-2
NK town tonight
6-2
Lynch Ecto (town) today
5-2
NK town tonight
4-2
Lynch Korts - If Korts turns up town then
3-2
NK town
2-2
Scum wins in endgame.

It wouldn't matter which order we lynched us if you are town and both of us are lynched. The end result would be the same, a loss.

My point here is that we don't have the luxury of testing us both. Therefore, we deserve a pre-mortem assessment from Adel if she believes her demise is eminent.

[Ectomancer]

@darkdude: why don't you think Ecto is scum. Please provide specific information. The more quickly you answer and the more information you provide, the less scummy you will appear, and the less likely you will to be lynched today.

Don't think he is scum? I don't recall saying that. There's just nothing to suggest him being more likely to be scum than other players. Right now I'm most suspicious of Korts, but even that is mostly gut feeling and guess.

To me Ecto seems like a very tunnel vision stricken town. Scum would probably pursue one of the lurkers IMHO.

I dont recall that either.

That's because I'm convinced that I got you and there is only one way to find out if I'm right. But. I often do the unlikely, so your last sentence is closer to WIFOM in regards to me and my play than might be with others.

I chuckled out loud reading that last sentence in Adel's quote

[Ectomancer]

The reservation I have against lynching darkdude is partially because he is one of the more active players (bothering to post is pro-town, and a game without posting is pretty much a scum auto-win) and his activity level in this game is about the same has activity level in the one other game he is currently playing. If this game had more active players I would be more willing to lynch him.

I dont think I can count the number of times I've felt that this was all that kept me alive as scum. I could pull wild gambits and stay alive so long as I kept active and fighting (never give up, never surrender!). The danger for us is if scum gets involved in an early, intense debate and then things cool down. After that, in my experience, town seems to feel that player has been sufficiently grilled and can usually get near an endgame situation before being studied again.

Activity is a null tell as far as alignment goes, even if the act itself may be pro-town. Otherwise, once we get to endgame, we just lynch the least active player FTW!

[Ectomancer]

Uhhh...you're full of it. Activity level is a null tell...period. You can call it pro-town or anti-town, but there is no alignment indication whatsoever.
Oh yeah, rather than coming up with some conspiracy theory, you might consider that

I was pointing out that it is a freaking null tell.

[Ectomancer]

I just looked at my post and your conspiracy theory. You can't even get the right conspiracy theory. If there is one, it would be that if I were scum, I was setting up someone who was active and involved early in the game, but since has retreated into the background. One of my next posts would be me going back and "discovering" the "scummy" player. Of course, I could and DID come up with the same idea as town, so that would be a simple WIFOM.
But even beyond that, the focus of my statement was that being active does not make you town. How do you turn that into being inactive makes you town? You trying to get Tubby, Penguin, or ThAdmiral lynched?

I really hate that you are on my wagon. You must be bussing Darkdude. (Tit for tat conspiracy theory)

[Ectomancer]

Alrighty.

[Ectomancer]

There's a scum watcher? Nice. With an amnesiac cop and gun inventor handing things out, that role comes in useful. Should there be another roving role (doc, roleblocker), you would have a fairly high probability of seeing town members going to and fro. I'm rather unmoved by this claim.

Still, let's play out the hand. Are you able to reveal your night one target and result?

[Ectomancer]

Ecto - you trying to say that i have been inactive?! I just signed up on this mini today.

Post 469

[Ectomancer]

Still, let's play out the hand. Are you able to reveal your night one target and result?

Ecto, please read my posts correctly...

This is why I think your case against me is bullshit and you're just too tunnel visioned.

It looked like part of your sig. I dont read sigs.

[Ectomancer]

I know you did nothing on Night 0.

Oh noez.

i r scum

Unvote
Vote: darkdude

Humph. Not much else to say then.

[Ectomancer]

I think that darkdude is scum, and either Korts or Ectomancer is bussing him, but probably not both of them.

I think we should lynch darkdude today, and either Korts or Ectomancer tomorrow after darkdude proves to be scum. I wouldn't normally suggest a lynch order like this, bu I expect to get night killed (WIFOM TRAP) tonight.

I'm not certain why you dodged left here Adel. I mean, I bit down on Darkdude hard and wouldn't let go. I defended it against Rage, the claim didn't phase me a bit and that was before it was said that Darkdude couldn't have done anything on N0.

But, in the same vein as your thoughts Adel, when I read your posts I was recalled to an earlier interaction between myself and Rage. What do you think about this?

1st part is Rage criticizing myself and Korts for bringing up a topic of discussion. Basically a type of repression of discussion, and in this case, was and is still a very relevant consideration. Similiar to what we just lynched Darkdude for.
2nd part looks like Rage trying to help Darkdude to make an investigative claim.
3rd part, Rage makes sure to pre-eminently defend himself against an attack upon him for defending Darkdude. My head says so that he would have that statement out there when Darkdude flipped scum. If you read my quote to him, I was only exhorting him to join my bandwagon, not saying in anyway that he was "defending" Darkdude if he didn't join it.
Remember that this was prior to Darkdude's claim of a N0 watcher result.

*Speculation - Rage got frustrated with Darkdude for claiming watcher instead of just the recipient of an investigation result. Finally decided to cut him loose with a bus, especially after I was unshaken by the claim and Adel led off with more questioning. In light of the revealed roles (2 town power roles, 1 goon), I would not be surprised to know that Rage really is a Tracker.

vote Rage

I don't know what to make of the post circle. If I'm right, ThAdmiral and Tubby interactions wont be scum related.

1) This question is aimed at Ectomancer and Korts. Why did you discuss the possibility of a vig-kill if neither of you wanted to set up a claim or out the killer? What did both of you wish to achieve by talking about it?

Did you know that with a possibility of 2 guns out there (whoever has them), plus a scum kill at night, that if we lynch town today, both guns are used on town (not far fetched if 1 or 2 guns went to scum), and then scum does their kill on town, we lose in end game tomorrow? That's assuming 3 scum in a 12 player game.
I think it's a topic that needs to be discussed, with possiblities put into people's heads so that even if we dont know where the snake is, we might know what it could look like before it gets a chance to bite us.

4)

Ectomancer

, how can you be 99% sure that an investigation result does not exist in the game? How does darkdude saying he's 90% sure you are wrong, in a rebuttal to you saying you are 99% sure, influence your thinking?

That's my read on Puta after being in 2 games with him. It's my opinion that all he wanted was to disrupt the game, and wouldnt have bothered with something like sending in investigations or anything to do with actually playing the game. Puta was a troll.
That 1% means that Im not Omniscient.
I think DarkDude is scum, so that 90% rebuttal didnt mean anything to me.

Your case is weak next to mine Rage. Vote Darkdude. He is scum. He attempts to blatantly manipulate the conversation to only include the part he finds relevant. Tries to portray the gun inventor discussion as revealing player intentions, yet asks for a breadcrumb from the recipient of the cop investigation.

Also, defending implies that I'm trying to protect him from being lynched. I am not trying to defend him, I'm trying to sort out the discrepancies I think I see in and against the case. I'm not doing a very good job, but at least I'm willing to let others to correct me.

I didnt say anything about you trying to protect DarkDude from being lynched. I'm telling you that my scumpenis is bigger than your scumpenis, so come join my wagon. If you wanted to criticize me for this statement, it would be that this could be seen as a proxy defense of BoW.

[Ectomancer]

It was this:

More of a deflection than cutting off I reckon.

Rage wrote:
1) This question is aimed at Ectomancer and Korts. Why did you discuss the possibility of a vig-kill if neither of you wanted to set up a claim or out the killer? What did both of you wish to achieve by talking about it?

The real genius of this deflection is that the desire to talk about it was expressed, but it didn't get much beyond that. He acts as though we talked it through,

when in actuality we didn't.

He deflects the direction of the conversation directly to our motivations, and graciously tosses in a scummy one for example.
I wasn't misdirected though, and ignored his questioning of my motivations, and instead stated what it was that we had not talked about.

[Ectomancer]

Short on time, quick post. Ecto makes a compelling case against Rage, but I can't shake the sudden feeling that there was some bussing going on between darkdude and Ecto yesterday.

I'll take that as a compliment.

Can you tell us why it is more likely that Ecto was bussing and not Korts? Or why it isn't possible that we both bussed Darkdude? Or neither?

Come up with a case and I'll take a look at it, but lynching for good scum hunting isn't really something I can defend against...

[Ectomancer]

Short on time, quick post. Ecto makes a compelling case against Rage, but I can't shake the sudden feeling that there was some bussing going on between darkdude and Ecto yesterday.

I'll take that as a compliment.

Can you tell us why it is more likely that Ecto was bussing and not Korts? Or why it isn't possible that we both bussed Darkdude? Or neither?

Umm, stupid question. I know my own alignment, and it'd be pretty stupid for me to even consider having bussed regardless of it. Maybe you're forgetting that you quoted me.

Anyway, I'm in full knowledge of the fact that I don't have any case on you. It's just a sudden feeling that I had. I promise you that I'll go over it and make a case if I find it holds.

No, it's not. Of course we both know our own alignments, but that certainly isn't an argument that can ever be used. From the town's perspective, there is no reason I see that Ecto and Korts couldnt have decided to bus their buddy Darkdude. I mean really, if they picked one of us and we turned up scum, do you think they would decide that the other was bussing too?

No offense, but if we are going to be using the word stupid, it should be applied to your statement, not my question. What purpose did it serve except to sling unsubstantiated dirt?

[Ectomancer]

Are you saying that I should be arguing that I am quite possibly scum? Because I don't see how that would fulfill any win condition other than a Jester's.

No offense, but if we are going to be using the word stupid, it should be applied to your statement, not my question. What purpose did it serve except to sling unsubstantiated dirt?

I believe in transparency of motives.

Really, stop dodging here. Can you demonstrate to the town without resorting to your PM, why exactly your idea that I was bussing DarkDude is more likely than any of the other scenarios surrounding his lynch? If not, you had no point at all except to make a placeholder for yourself to refer back to later should you find the need to build a case on me in the future.

That's exactly what I'm after here Korts, is transparency in your motives. I'm trying to understand your motive for singling out one possible scenario out of equally possible ones and stating it.

I'd feel better about it if you put out what your thoughts now. If you don't have anything, say so. I just really dislike what I see as making a reservation on a potential wagon, especially when the suspicion is easily applied to yourself. What would be your response if someone said: "I can't shake the sudden feeling that there was some bussing going on between darkdude and Korts yesterday." and left it at that? Tell them you know you are town? Let me know how that works out.

[Ectomancer]

You know what? I'm not going to spend another 3 or 4 hours trying to come up with more of a defense. It's just better if I'm lynched. And, no, this isn't where anyone should take pity on me and take their vote off, this is me saying "just do it already". I owe it to the game to be lynched, and I've played horribly.

Top Suspects:
- Adel
- Korts
- insanepenguin02
- ThAdmiral

Wait, I thought you said I was Darkdude's partner, but I don't even rate your list? Clarification?

[Ectomancer]

@ecto: please post links to your last three games as scum.

I'll see what I can dig up with search. It's been 6 or 7 games or more now I think.

[Ectomancer]

Adel, I read it as TDC poking some fun at you. Nothing game revealing to be found.

2) Adel: I know that you are just very active but it almost seems as if you are bullying the rest of us around with your questions and views. You are really trying to build cases against many and it seems that you just want all suspicion off of you and onto others. I have a feeling, just a gut feeling, that you are in fact scum....

You haven't seen someone bullying yet.

Since town has no idea who scum is, investigating different players is a good idea. Not all questions result in a scummy analysis. Some answers will convince you that someone might be town. (Equally important in mafia)

Is that what your gut opinion was based upon, or do you have more to look at?

[Ectomancer]

viewtopic.php?t=7568&highlight=

Went into the hospital, was replaced below. *incomplete

viewtopic.php?t=7268&highlight=

In this one I was accused of being a dick. I got the strategy for my play from Muhammad Ali and Aflac.

viewtopic.php?t=8431&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

Added a 4th link if you want only completed games.

viewtopic.php?t=5505&highlight=

[Ectomancer]

I am currently against a rage lynch, and with every vote that is put against him I find myself more against it.

Does this happen to you with every wagon you are against? Why mention it unless it is unusual for you? If it is unusual for you, then it isn't the votes that are increasing your resistance, but something surrounding the votes.
Can you put some more elaboration into this statement?

[Ectomancer]

Hmm. I see all this math cluttering up the thread. Is it relevant? What is the interpretation of these numbers according to those who are actually taking the time to figure out what this is trying to acheive? It looks like busy work...

[Ectomancer]

5) however i do not like admirals post #620 that wreaks of scumminess

@admiral, why did you feel it nessacary to reveal that info?

Korts already brought this up, but it deserves an emphasis. "Reeks of scumminess" is a nonsense phrase. I can think of several different ways to interpret his post, some scum motivated, others town.

So...what specific interpretation have you personally zeroed in on?

[Ectomancer]

unvote

while I digest.

[Ectomancer]

Let's not string up Tubby just yet. I feel like I can't find my keys, so I'm not ready to leave.

[Ectomancer]

ThAdmiral - At one point in game Korts and I were arguing over whether one of us bussed Darkdude. Who did you think more likely to win the discussion? Did you think that it would result in the lynch of one of us?

Insanepenguin makes a better lynch than Tubby. Flustered looking play surrounding DD's lynch, followed by subsequent fishing for the player that blocked scum kill last night, followed by another hop on Rage (hottest at the time). Following Adel around after complaining that Adel was a bully and that Adel was annoying him. This is after support was given to Adel's method's by the closest to confirmed town (me). Followed Adel with an FOS on afatchic and then with a vote on Tubby.

Calls me pro-town without talking about the possible bus with Darkdude or ThAdmiral's 'investigation result'.
Calls Korts swaying scum without delving into the DD case at all. In fact, takes the opportunity here to toss in another defense of his hammer on DD.
Now calls Adel pro-town, but still tries to keep the back door open on a future case for vote-hopping under the guise of just trying to understand.
Calls ThAdmiral pro-scum, but doesn't discuss at all the revealed 'investigation' and instead berates ThA for some empty promises?

Look at the 'pro-town'ish assessments. Myself, the player I defended against IP's "bullying" and "vote hopping" charges, and the claim that we can test.

I may be failing at outlining the pattern I'm seeing, but either IP is scum, or he is pandering his ass off.

[Ectomancer]

add on - IP has twice now given someone crap for voting for someone other than Darkdude, as though there was no other choice that wasn't scummy. (ThAdmiral and Tubby) You know, most town don't

know

who scum is right? Despite my certainty, I didn't expect everyone else to just fall in behind me.
Why would you?
This looks to me like a reverse defense of your hammer. You attack anyone who

wasn't

on the wagon, thereby implying that those who

were

are ok. Since you are one of those who were, that makes you ok right?

I don't like players who throw out suspicion on other players simply to avoid looking bad themselves.

Need to reiterate a pattern I found as well:

IP dismissed out of hand that thought that he could be scum that hammered his scum buddy. Why? Never heard of bussing?
IP avoids the topic of bussing altogether, declining to discuss it during his breakdown in reference to myself, Korts, or ThAdmiral, all 3 of whom could arguably have bussed (though it gets a bit more complicated with ThAdmiral and myself).

What is your previous mafia experience InsanePenguin?

[Ectomancer]

Happy Scumday Korts!

[Ectomancer]

Alright, you played newb card. That's fine. I left it out there for you.

I wasn't satisfied with the response though, mainly because I didn't see where you actually addressed any of my points, or acknowledged why your motivations are being called into question.
By playing the newb card, and basically asking for a bye week, you've gained the opportunity to demonstrate understanding of the case against you. Odds are that you will be town in your mafia games more than you will be scum. I need to know that you understand how you fell under the crosshairs.

So, I need you to talk about Korts and Rage where bussing Darkdude is concerned. I need you to talk about ThAdmiral and his investigation result claim. I need you to talk about your attitude towards Adel. Those are specific points, but you can elaborate.
I need you to talk about the bouncing to the popular wagon of the moment.
Lastly, if you find the time, I'd like you to analyze the lynch wagon on Darkdude. That will better help you understand why and when scum might decide the best play is to lynch their partner.

[Ectomancer]

Happy Scumday Korts!

Thanks

[qutoe="Ecto"]IP avoids the topic of bussing altogether, declining to discuss it during his breakdown in reference to myself, Korts, or ThAdmiral, all 3 of whom could arguably have bussed (though it gets a bit more complicated with ThAdmiral and myself)

How does it get more complicated with you and ThAdmiral? If you're referring to the investigation ThAd claimed, it only semi-clears you, but not ThAd. ThAdscum can still claim correct results for brownie points, as well as incorrect to clear a scumbuddy.

The case on IP by Ecto is worth thought; tubby is still slightly better in my irrelevant opinion. I'd also like to see that case on me.[/quote]

I think I made a mistake and didn't get that quite right.
Rage should have been looked at for bussing Darkdude.
ThAdmiral situation is still a more complicated affair when you delve into motivations, but couldn't be called bussing. I would still like to see what IP's thoughts are surrounding his investigation claim.

[Ectomancer]

Ectomancer: You say you rate an insanepenguin lynch higher than Tubby216. What about Rage, who you seemed adamant about not long ago?

I think we have 2 scum remaining.

I'm now on the fence about an IP lynch. Pandering is a newbie trait in my experience, and I've played quite a number of newbie games.

Rage...I've been trying to think of a way to use Rage to be quite honest. I've also been trying to think of a way that he could clear himself. I may have a way, but am trying to decide whether to use it or not. I think that if he is pro-town, then we have an obligation to wait before lynching to see what else he finds. DarkDude was unbelievable even with his claim. Rage provides me with more doubt.

[Ectomancer]

I think that's a pretty fair assessment.

[Ectomancer]

You know Kison, I think a case would be in order before considering whether I am an optimal lynch or not. Don't you think?

[Ectomancer]

I don't see why a case is required... I'm saying that

between the two of you

, ThAdmiral would be optimal because there is more to gain from it. This is mainly in response to Rage's post at the top of this page.

Mmmm.

Alrighty. Seemed a fairly narrow focus for a post from my perspective. It's a false dilemma.

Ok, since you responded to Rage's response to Adel's question, I think you should answer Adel's sliding scale question.

Also, if you don't mind, who are your top 2 scum suspects?

[Ectomancer]

Darkdude wasn't a Watcher. I had already expressed that I wouldn't be surprised to find a scum role that could see the investigations and guns being handed out. I still believe that to be the case for balance.
I don't believe that Rage should live beyond tomorrow, but I would love to give him a chance to find scum creeping around tonight.

This is a pre-eulogy bit.

[Ectomancer]

Please don't lynch. I have something to say.

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP: Reading between the lines, this means, Dude with the gun (I believe there is one) don't kill Rage.

I think tomorrow might be a good time for someone to claim gun possession. I tried to think of a way to make use of Rage and the gun today if we had them claim, but I was thwarted in my ideas by loopholes that were a net loss, with nothing happening but the (potential) recipient claiming.

There are reasons, alignment being one of them, for thinking about getting that claim

today

, and then doing a town vote for the victim tonight. I've already expressed that I don't think Rage is it. I'd like to see if he lives tomorrow to give us a report.
So, let's think about how things play out if we lynch Tubby, and then select a 2nd person to be our "2nd lynch" today, forcing whoever has the gun to shoot the target we select.
If scum holds it, and I almost suspect that they do, then I imagine they are waiting until we think we have another day before LYLO, and then popping us.
Now, we can't force them to say that they have it. That's ok. What we need to do is close off the avenue of someone later claiming to be pro-town with the gun and saying they will take out town's selected target when it is too late to do anything to them if they don't.
So, they claim it today and shoot our target. If he doesn't, we have our lynch target tomorrow. If Nobody claims, then we have removed from scum the chance to claim it later.

We're down to 9 players, we lost 2 power roles and only have 1 scum for it. That missing potential gun concerns me a great deal.

[Ectomancer]

Ok Tubby, show me anything at all about Adel in here please.

Darkdude wasn't a Watcher. I had already expressed that I wouldn't be surprised to find a scum role that could see the investigations and guns being handed out. I still believe that to be the case for balance.
I don't believe that Rage should live beyond tomorrow, but I would love to give him a chance to find scum creeping around tonight.

This is a pre-eulogy bit.

EBWOP: Reading between the lines, this means, Dude with the gun (I believe there is one) don't kill Rage.

I think tomorrow might be a good time for someone to claim gun possession. I tried to think of a way to make use of Rage and the gun today if we had them claim, but I was thwarted in my ideas by loopholes that were a net loss, with nothing happening but the (potential) recipient claiming.

There are reasons, alignment being one of them, for thinking about getting that claim

today

, and then doing a town vote for the victim tonight. I've already expressed that I don't think Rage is it. I'd like to see if he lives tomorrow to give us a report.
So, let's think about how things play out if we lynch Tubby, and then select a 2nd person to be our "2nd lynch" today, forcing whoever has the gun to shoot the target we select.
If scum holds it, and I almost suspect that they do, then I imagine they are waiting until we think we have another day before LYLO, and then popping us.
Now, we can't force them to say that they have it. That's ok. What we need to do is close off the avenue of someone later claiming to be pro-town with the gun and saying they will take out town's selected target when it is too late to do anything to them if they don't.
So, they claim it today and shoot our target. If he doesn't, we have our lynch target tomorrow. If Nobody claims, then we have removed from scum the chance to claim it later.

We're down to 9 players, we lost 2 power roles and only have 1 scum for it. That missing potential gun concerns me a great deal.

[Ectomancer]

I certainly wouldn't be using an EBWOP to discuss a subsequent statement...

[Ectomancer]

That's the 2nd time this page that I read someone's post and had no idea what they were referring to. Did you mean Tubby or myself Adel? (or someone else?)

I don't believe that Rage should live beyond tomorrow, but I would love to give him a chance to find scum creeping around tonight.

This is a pre-eulogy bit.


Ectomancer wrote:
EBWOP: Reading between the lines, this means, Dude with the gun (I believe there is one) don't kill Rage.

EBWOP means Edit By Way Of Post. That means that the part after the EBWOP should be tacked on to the previous post (except in this case where I felt compelled to ask for time to say something due to the way things were rolling, so it applies to the post before

that

.)

[Ectomancer]

Hold off on lynching Tubby just yet.

I'm taking a look at everyone individually Afatchic, I'll have an answer for you, though if asked to give an answer right now, mine would mirror yours.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, I'm going to go with the Townie scale of 1 - Scum 10 - Town.

Ectomancer - 10
tubby216 - 7
insanepenguin02 - 3
Kison - 6
Korts - 7
afatchic - 9
Adel - 8 (based upon BOW, not Adel. Adel would be a 5)
Rage - 2
ThAdmiral - 7

[Ectomancer]

Trying to decide whether discussion surrounding our dead Gunsmith would be useful. At first I did, but while talking to myself the paths I followed didn't lead anywhere.

[Ectomancer]

Hold off on lynching Tubby just yet.

Why?

I don't think he is scum.

[Ectomancer]

Because I'm not going to lynch you and I have been asking for delays while I think things through. My re-read says IP should die today, with Rage revealing his actions tomorrow.

vote InsanePenguin

[Ectomancer]

I would rather get some info from afatchic and Admiral since they will be likely choosing what wagon to jump on: tubby or mine.

im not really sure where this sudden push for IP came from but i would rather see tubby lynched today.

but you don't see the need to vote for me? hmm interesting

You will get my vote, however i don't see the benifet of having two wagons at L-1 right now... would you like to go ahead and get my vote now?

I'm just trying to keep someone from jumping wagons and hammering you. like if IP is scum, and his buddy is on his wagon, he may see an opportunity to hammer you and take it. but if you would really like my vote id be glad to give it to you.

This makes no sense. You are the only one not voting. If you want Tubby lynched then vote him. Somebody

has

to leave their choice to break the impasse. The interesting thing will be who and why.

[Ectomancer]

unvote, vote: afatchic

Yeah. I'm looking back at the number I gave him.

[Ectomancer]

I looked at the number and based upon a relatively small meta dataset, circumstantial conjecture and personal opinion, I'll stick with it.

[Ectomancer]

You've got me concerned Adel. I know you like your charts and such. I know that you like to plan ahead as scum (I think you've expressed dismay previously when your scum buddies didn't do any communication/planning). So assuming an Adel scum, here's the path:

The die was cast when we gave our opinions on who would likely be scum when Tubby flipped scum. Cop is dead, the investigation revealed, so the only player left who could catch scum out, including the Godfather was the town Tracker (Rage). Bussing Tubby as Godfather wasn't much of a problem, because his unique ability was no longer needed. The town Tracker on the other hand could reveal movement of scum.
Rage would likely get lynched from the looks of the list, but he could still talk and even a reveal of who

didn't

go out last night was too much information. He had to die.
So looking on Adel's list, we see that the next person was IP by a total of 4 vs 2 over afatchic. Now Adel could have made it 3 vs 3, but the clincher was that Rage had wanted IP over Tubby. Adel puts her preference on IP, Rage dies which throws us back to our other lynch target from yesterday as the only obvious place to look right now, and the reason to lynch is ready made in the form of our opinions yesterday.

According to what people said yesterday, if Tubby is scum:
afatchic -> Rage
Ecto -> Rage, IP
Korts -> Rage, Adel
insanepenguin02 -> Rage, afatchic
Kison -> Adel, Rage
ThAdmiral -> afatchic or IP
Adel -> IP
*Rage-> (preferred IP over Tubby)

I have a hunch that Rage may have been a vig kill. Does anyone want to claim credit for the kill of Rage?

And I think this clears me of being a Godfather? Curious how you mentioned one in being in game and Tubby turns up as one.

Is Ecto a 9 or 10 confirmed now?

I dont want the mass claim yet. I'm miffed at the vanila townie claim without

the rest of the town

chiming in on the idea...

[Ectomancer]

Oh, above Adel, you could punch holes in that a bit if you can show that your preference was stated prior to the rest being established. I haven't looked yet, and Im sure its buried.

[Ectomancer]

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.
We only need to worry about who we lynch today. That person should claim, or we should just all decide who should claim without the need for official votes and dallying with the opportunity for someone to quick lynch.
I think we can still wait until tomorrow for the mass claim.

[Ectomancer]

It's my job to assign scum theories to people. You know, hash them out, come up with competing theories, etc. It's fun.

This is where you mentioned Godfather in conjunction with my alignment:

I have a very weary respect for Kison and Korts as scum, and the possibility of Ecto the Godfather is giving me a real headache.

Ok, you postulate 2 Godfathers with this setup. Fine. Anything is in the realm of possibility.

Next,

Oh, above Adel, you could punch holes in that a bit if you can show that your preference was stated prior to the rest being established. I haven't looked yet, and Im sure its buried.

I was the last to answer afatchic.

So it is possible then, that you had the opportunity to weigh your options when deciding whom to place on the "scum if tubby is scum" list. You've shown a propensity for being deliberate in your moves, and so I'm certain that naming IP here was not a casual decision. Knowing that you would kill Rage, you bumped IP into the 2nd position because #1, he was already 1 vote ahead, #2 he was already a top lynch target, and #3 if you put him in a tie with afatchic, the day is more likely to drag out into longer discussion, which is more exposure for scum.
All of that is pretty fluff in the wind except that you drew it to my attention. I said that I know you do things deliberately, and so posting this:

According to what people said yesterday, if Tubby is scum:
afatchic -> Rage
Ecto -> Rage, IP
Korts -> Rage, Adel
insanepenguin02 -> Rage, afatchic
Kison -> Adel, Rage
ThAdmiral -> afatchic or IP
Adel -> IP
*Rage-> (preferred IP over Tubby)

I have a hunch that Rage may have been a vig kill. Does anyone want to claim credit for the kill of Rage?

You drew attention to the information (as you must if a quick wagon of IP is possible, and if IP is getting run up, you are not). That's what drew my eye. Not the information, but the fact that you

drew attention to it

. Helpful town Adel or manipulative scum Adel? Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to identify those animals in the wild prior to being tagged and bagged.

Vig kill of Rage, but no scum kill would indicate another town role of roleblocker or protector. Would it really be best to mass claim in that situation? Wouldn't the roleblocker/protector be the best judge of when to reveal, and a coerced mass claim would remove that best judge from the equation?
Also, why would a roleblocker/protector not target Rage (unless they were a jailkeeper?) And even if that failed, what about my request to the guy with the gun

specifically

to not kill Rage so that we could get one more result?
Or was this the old "send in no kill to baffle the town" move by scum? That makes little sense with 2 dead scum and we went into night with 8 players. Not great odds.

[Ectomancer]

Im sorry, roleblocker would not target Rage to protect him, my goof.

[Ectomancer]

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

You're nearly confirmed, but I wouldn't call you 100% confirmed yet. There's some chance of a 4-player scumgroup, with you and ThAdmiral as scum, however unlikely.

From your perspective, sure. Scum on the other hand, would have to have Big Brass Buffalo Balls to go into endgame with me.

[Ectomancer]

No.

If you want to claim, claim. That will be left up to our individual town players. They have a far better view of the situation than we do. Particularly if there is a protection role. Scum can either decide to off me, or take a shot in the dark at someone else.

Town has far less to benefit from than does scum from my seat. As I said above, the individuals can decide when they best time to claim will be

unless

we have them on the hot chair. I will also actively work to prevent a systematic application of pressure to gain claims from all town members. You will have an actual case before any claim is supported by me.

[Ectomancer]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

[Ectomancer]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

Now that you've thought about it, explain why it is a bad idea for vanilla to claim offhand, even though all they can do is the basics.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, do you mean to say you suspect IP over Adel?

Are you asking me which of the theories I'm spinning is my front runner? I don't view them in that manner currently. It is also part of the method to my madness

that I won't answer that thought

until I'm ready to place a vote.

[Ectomancer]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

ditto

[Ectomancer]

Well, it actually hit me first in the 716 game I guess. Vanilla is the easiest claim for anybody so anybody can claim it, especially scum so that they don't make a mistake by claiming a power role that can be counter claimed. It can also be a nice claim for a power role townie so that they don't reveal their power. Really, I have a lot of trouble believing anybody's claims of roles.

Anyways, is this conversation helping in this game?

Never claim Vanilla if you are a power role, and never claim a power role if you are vanilla.

This statement has

not

been approved by the Mafia Ad Council.

The kernel of truth here has already been uncovered, and that is that as a vanilla townie, you dont want to claim in order to maintain cover for the existing power roles.

[Ectomancer]

Adel's latest emphasis on IP seems to be one of a utility lynch what with all the ego stroking going on. (not that she isn't right, I think I've only been lynched Day 1 once and as town :ego: )

On the flip hand, some things she has said has a town ring to it.

Once again, still trying to find town/scum Adel.

[Ectomancer]

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).

Sorry Adel, I thought the same thing, and I also thought that the greater number of replacements, the more likely the role was to be vanilla townie. And then I got burned. Check Mini 701 viewtopic.php?t=9754&start=0. 4 replacements aannnd......Godfather. I was floored.

[Ectomancer]

I went through a lot of games and checked multiple replacements. I also found scum at 3 replacements, and several after 1 or 2.
I didn't want to talk about my theory to anyone because I was afraid of meta actions that might be taken to take advantage of that tell, and I didn't want to disturb the spirit of the game. Thing is, my experience and a little research tell me that isn't a reliable indicator, and at this point approaches null.

[Ectomancer]

how can we quantify this? What is the threshold point where it isn't a null tell.

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

No, that's not how I did it. I went through and looked to see which games had replacements, whether they were replaced 1,2,3,4...times and what alignment was revealed. As I believe that the typical scum/town ratio is 1/3, I would think that 1 scum showing up in multiple replacements should occur only 33% as often as town.
IIRC, early replacements (1 or 2) might have exceeded that level. I think people get into early trouble and bail out, leaving a replacement to pick up the pieces of a role.
I thought for sure that as I got higher the scum roles would disappear, but they didn't.

Now, as far as statistics go, I'm not certain there are enough completed games for a valid sample, but you could certainly try. It would be interesting to see the result, and for far more than just this current game.

I realize that we are discussing this in context of Afatchic, but this also applies to you Adel, so I question which side of the theory you stand on right now. But, we haven't seen the numbers yet.
In your particular situation Adel, you find yourself as the single replacement (which I think you are saying is a minor town tell), and you are replacing a player who could be as I described above, someone who got themselves into hot water as scum, wasn't sure what to do and bailed out.

I know you are getting the primary little snipes from me, but these are things as they occur to me. You, as with most veteran players, are almost constantly under suspicion unless I've seen game or psychological mechanics that tell me town.

[Ectomancer]

I dont get the tubby and darkdude reference. Darkdude was scum as I strongly suspected he would be. Tubby I didnt think was scum. Yes, clearly I get it wrong sometimes, else I would be the Paragon of Scum Hunting (I think).

I shift up strategy as scum constantly. I don't see why you wouldn't do the same. On the other hand, I dont see any more strength in an argument for a bus than against.

[Ectomancer]

FFS there is no fricking QFT. Seriously, keep up with the game. This is about gauging someone's towniness based off of number of replacements and it very much applies to what the discussion is in THIS game.
Why dont you READ it and comment on THIS game and the remarks made by players in THIS game. You can assure me that you understand by telling me who Adel is trying to use this game mechanic to clear, what the game mechanic is, why I don't agree, and why I think this could be a suspicious push.

[Ectomancer]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

This statement looks backward.

It isn't the random stage, it isn't even day 1. We don't need to invent a wagon simply to have 2 of them.

[Ectomancer]

You're not making sense to me anymore to be quite honest. How am I supposed to be learning anything about you after you die, (assuming a town Adel) when what you say doesn't hold water, and when I criticize the case, you tell me to just accept it because we need 2 wagons?

[Ectomancer]

Relax Adel. Drama doesnt become you. At least you recovered right away. The Korts thing is detailed and plausible.
I'm in my listen to everybody stage, and if you are silent, I hear that too.
I don't want to stir things too much, and Adel, I need you to power down and just stare meaningfully at someone for awhile.
I want to hear wild theories from everyone else too. Please don't make me prod you personally, there aren't that many of us left.

[Ectomancer]

Yeah, I'm going to be really mad if there is a lynch before I get the chance to have my final say.

[Ectomancer]

First would be Korts, followed by Adel, Kison, ThAdmiral, and afatchic. IP will then do a full reveal (if applicable) and then myself. A why would be the order of suspicion with the exception that afatchic kept getting pushed back due to the skill and experience of the 3 players in front, and of course IP has already claimed. That order is a bit blurry towards the front.

[Ectomancer]

I don't have a problem asking about the guns pre-claim. We can talk about whether to proceed with a mass claim afterwards?

[Ectomancer]

Let's use Korts, IP, Adel, afatchic, Kison, ThAdmiral, Ecto on the gun reveal. I think that is closer to my actual suspicion list, though IP could go in front of Korts.

[Ectomancer]

Kison, Adel was the one who broached the idea of a mass claim earlier. I dug my heels in then because #1 I dont trust Adel, and #2 IP jumped right in with the 100% vanilla. Right now, I honestly don't know.
I'll let you and Adel be prosecution and defense on the idea. We'll hold off until after the gun claims. Those at least I'm certain that today is the correct day for reveal so that we can decide as a town what the best use of it would be.

[Ectomancer]

And no gun. I had expected there to be 1.

So, we speculate on scum holding it then. We need to take 2 scum kills into account. I doubt they have 3.

[Ectomancer]

It's possible that the kill was used already; N3 may be the night. Doc/blocker had protected/blocked correctly N0 and more importantly N2, so I doubt N2 was the night unless the scum also have a blocker/doc and they scored a hit.

Hum. I think a massclaim is in order after all.

Thanks for jogging my memory on why I am against a mass claim. I'm leaving up to the individual town member involved to decide the best time to claim that move. If they want to claim, sure, go ahead and claim now if you think its good, but I am not doing a town enforced mass claim.

[Ectomancer]

No offense, but I don't think the conversation has spun to a halt.

Spank my bottom and call me a bad boy, but I think Kison is my advisor today. I trust him.

My internet at home is down. That's why I haven't had much input here. If I don't have it back up tonight, I'll try to post thoughts from my G1, but as great as it is, it is still a pain to type out hundreds of words and I dread having to create quote pyramids.

[Ectomancer]

I'd rather lynch Korts.

[Ectomancer]

A few things have pinged me about Korts. I would have to go back for an entire list, but the one thing that has not been resolved in my mind was his early attachment to the Darkdude wagon. He seemed convinced very early and it took me much longer to get anyone else onboard. I think he knew I

knew

and so reserved an early seat (maybe in case I had investigated or something), and could have easily slipped off if I had not been able to sway you guys.

I would have not been so suspicious, but you guys make me feel like I was not very convincing at first. Why was Korts?

Im happy to wait on a full list of suspicions Korts

[Ectomancer]

Meta's are overrated.

[Ectomancer]

Excuse me. Paranoia about a player generated by play in previous games is overrated.

[Ectomancer]

Internet out. Ill try to catch up from work.

[Ectomancer]

Right, because it is so in my interest to go to deadline without a lynch.

Ever heard of smartphones? They work, but they are tedious.

[Ectomancer]

You really think that IP is town?

[Ectomancer]

5 alive is a good time.

[Ectomancer]

That order is fine.

[Ectomancer]

And rounding it out with it doesn't matter.

Put my thoughts to it, and I agree with Adel that a rapid double bus is farfetched.
If I go ahead with the odds and chalk the 4 replacement (or was it 5) godfather up as an aberration, I'll put afatchic up next.
Kison - up in the air
Korts - Suspicious - My lynch choice today.

[Ectomancer]

In the case of Darkdude, I am suspicious, but you may have a point on tubby/IP.

[Ectomancer]

Hmm, I wonder.

I said when Rage was claiming Tracker that I was not surprised to hear about it with all of the potential goings and comings. Amnesiac cop investigating and giving away results (I wonder how that would have looked to a tracker?), plus gun inventor handing things out. A tracker or watcher is called for.
Is there a scum watcher to balance things?
Well, with a Godfather to offset cop investigations, a tracker seeing people running around, and some of them possibly town with guns is a confusion generator that we as town had to figure out if they hadn't died early.
I don't think we need to have another power role for town or for scum actually.

Here's a possible explanation for a no kill result on night 2 without needing another power role.
I believe that the gun inventor did indeed get a gun out. But suppose that a gun inventor lived long enough to give out, say 3 guns? That's a lot of guns in a game. Sure, it takes a couple nights (or days if they can be used anytime), but its possible. How do you prevent that from going crazy?
You only make the guns 50% likely to work (or whatever limit).

My thoughts are that the gun inventor likely handed a gun to scum. I think that scum were probably concerned about a watcher/tracker since they had a godfather and had already killed an amnesiac cop. Darkdude tries to pull a counter-claim of watcher and doesn't get it. That night scum decides to use the gun for the gun inventor, so that if tracked they would just claim one-shot vig via gun from the inventor.
Unfortunately for them, the random factor in the invented guns was against them and no kill occured.

Now, if this is not the case, we've got a roleblocker or doc, Korts knows it (hence the push for whoever is hiding to claim), but wasn't the one who tried to make the kill night 2, Tubby did, so our roleblocker isnt ready to come out, because all though he blocked scum on night 2, that scumbag is already dead.
Now, if Scum thinks that a Doc blocked their kill night 2, that would explain no Ectomancer kill last night, because I think I was almost certainly the protected player last night if so.
Once again, Korts is pressing for the person to come forth.

Mull all of that over if you will.

[Ectomancer]

I dont know that it would have been incompetence. As I said, they may have been concerned about a tracker/watcher being out there and figured if caught out using the gun inventors weapon, no problem. Rather than incompetent, I would say it would be more of a conservative approach. Remember also that it is only my guess that such a weapon would have only a percentage chance of working, but I would be surprised if the mod told the recipient that fact. Now this next part may be incompetence; if they didn't realize that the inventors gun could have a chance of not working, then they probably should have.

I'd like everyone to say which scenario you think the more likely -
1: inventor gun being used in lieu of scum nk and failing
2: Doc/Roleblocker prevented a kill n2 and doesnt want to be forced to claim today
3: Scum was inattentive and didn't send in a kill

I would say that I believe 3 to be the least likely by a wide margin. I'm not certain I believe in 2, but if I did I would believe Korts to be the remaining scum. Option 1 I am not certain who I would hold up as scum. My suspicious mind looks at how Kison ridicules the choice of using the gun instead of a scum kill N2, and actually I feel some truth behind his opinion, but I wonder if the vehemence behind it is because Tubby was Godfather and decided to do it that way over Kison's objections.

[Ectomancer]

Oh yes, I'm spinning stories about anyone or any scenario if it comes into my head. It doesn't mean my compass has settled. I just need several competing ideas and then weed it down to the most likely.

[Ectomancer]

my list would go 2->3->1. I just don't really see TDC putting random choices into the roles (or if he did, the role PMs would include them). Plus flavorwise it doesn't really make sense for gun inventor guns to be any different from mafia guns.

You really want to discourage the idea of a misfiring gun for explaining no kill on N2. You also seem to want to push to find the player that might have blocked/protected that night. You almost have me convinced, but only because I am coming to believe that you know such a role exists because you were blocked.

[Ectomancer]

I think a couple have said it before, but who is everyone's pick for most likely to have failed to send in scum's NK?

[Ectomancer]

Nice job Adel. I would have lynched Korts.

Darkdude, it was one of those things where I just

knew

and for exactly the reasons I gave. Then my radar mostly failed me.

[Ectomancer]

By the way, this game just reinforced my idea that I do fine at the beginning of games and almost never have a problem getting one started, but my endgame leaves something to be desired

[Ectomancer]

These are the kind of games where you can post once a day and be active. You don't mean to tell me that you think 2 or 3 posts per person is enough to lynch someone?
If you are looking for speedier games, there are alternatives and some are advertised and enforced with hard deadlines.
The biggest rebuttal to the complaint is that, as you can see, we won. I'd rather take my time for a win than rush to a defeat.