Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

When did people claim in that game? Did anyone claim vanilla townie early?

[TDC]

Vote Count

Adel (1): Korts
Korts (1): Adel

Not voting (5): Ectomancer, insanepenguin02, Kison, afatchic, ThAdmiral

[Korts]

I don't see the discussion moving in anything but circles right now.

[ThAdmiral]

to be fair discussion looked to be going in circles a bit yesterday but we ended up lynching scum.

So what's the verdict on the claim though? I say there's no real reason we should do it today as we are extremely unlikely to be lylo or even lylo-1.
Tomorrow I would probably go through with it.

[Korts]

IMO we should massclaim tomorrow.

[insanepenguin02]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

When did people claim in that game? Did anyone claim vanilla townie early?

Day 3 was when people started claiming. I came up with a case against who I thought was mafia and wanted to deflect the suspicion off of me and help explain a night one triple kill. I explained that we obviously had the mafia kill and a kill from me, as a one shot vig. Then the third had to be a serial killer. After I claimed, there were more claims:
The mafia claimed vanilla town, the serial killer claimed townie, and the other townie (watcher) claimed that he was watcher. So us remaining townies, who were both at some point a power role, were honest while the two threats both claimed vanilla.

[insanepenguin02]

And I would imagine that we only have one more mafia member left as we have killed off two already. With seven of us left, and no suspicious mulitple night kills, I would say that that leaves us with 6 townies and 1 mafia. A mass claim wouldn't be a horrible idea, I don't think but it would be better to do tomorrow as town could narrow it down a little bit more without losing another power role tonight, hopefully.

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

When did people claim in that game? Did anyone claim vanilla townie early?

Day 3 was when people started claiming. I came up with a case against who I thought was mafia and wanted to deflect the suspicion off of me and help explain a night one triple kill. I explained that we obviously had the mafia kill and a kill from me, as a one shot vig. Then the third had to be a serial killer. After I claimed, there were more claims:
The mafia claimed vanilla town, the serial killer claimed townie, and the other townie (watcher) claimed that he was watcher. So us remaining townies, who were both at some point a power role, were honest while the two threats both claimed vanilla.

so the idea of premature vanilla townie claims being bad never occurred to you until this game?

[insanepenguin02]

By "this" do you mean the Mini 716 or this game we are all in right now?

[Adel]

mini 703 (this game).

[insanepenguin02]

Well, it actually hit me first in the 716 game I guess. Vanilla is the easiest claim for anybody so anybody can claim it, especially scum so that they don't make a mistake by claiming a power role that can be counter claimed. It can also be a nice claim for a power role townie so that they don't reveal their power. Really, I have a lot of trouble believing anybody's claims of roles.

Anyways, is this conversation helping in this game?

[ThAdmiral]

I've always thought of early vanilla claims as "bad" play, but not necessarily scummy play.

Usually they are in fact vanilla townies, although it doesn't help the rest of the town that much.

[afatchic]

Well, it actually hit me first in the 716 game I guess. Vanilla is the easiest claim for anybody so anybody can claim it, especially scum so that they don't make a mistake by claiming a power role that can be counter claimed. It can also be a nice claim for a power role townie so that they don't reveal their power. Really, I have a lot of trouble believing anybody's claims of roles.

Anyways, is this conversation helping in this game?

Never claim Vanilla if you are a power role, and never claim a power role if you are vanilla.

[Adel]

ok, so when you made this post

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

1. did you remember that you had previously claimed vanilla townie?
2. had you forgotten that you learned in mini 716 that early vanilla townie claims are bad?

[Ectomancer]

Well, it actually hit me first in the 716 game I guess. Vanilla is the easiest claim for anybody so anybody can claim it, especially scum so that they don't make a mistake by claiming a power role that can be counter claimed. It can also be a nice claim for a power role townie so that they don't reveal their power. Really, I have a lot of trouble believing anybody's claims of roles.

Anyways, is this conversation helping in this game?

Never claim Vanilla if you are a power role, and never claim a power role if you are vanilla.

This statement has

not

been approved by the Mafia Ad Council.

The kernel of truth here has already been uncovered, and that is that as a vanilla townie, you dont want to claim in order to maintain cover for the existing power roles.

[insanepenguin02]

ok, so when you made this post

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

1. did you remember that you had previously claimed vanilla townie?
2. had you forgotten that you learned in mini 716 that early vanilla townie claims are bad?

1) Yes
2) But I felt that I had nothing to hide back when I initially claimed. The reaction again to my claim was because I had been debating that decision. I think that it is bad as well but again, I felt like I didn't have anything to hide.

[Kison]

I'm not really sure where this discussion is going. Insanepenguin claimed yesterday, but that doesn't diminish his utilization of what he said to push a premature mass claim. I think it's plausible he didn't understand the downside of it considering his join date, though.

Back to Adel...

Before I vote, I have one question. One of the main reasons I suspect you is the way you ran Tubby216 up and hopped off his wagon. You quoted something from Mafia 78 earlier, and you also mentioned something about Albert B. Rampage ruining the game for you. I know you've said he would selectively join games with you for the sole purpose of campaigning your lynch, but were those just idle comments, or were they suppose to be an explanation for the link I drew between Tubby216 and Surye?

[Adel]

in that game I was trying to just do a standard day 1 distancing move with Surye, but ABR really threw me off my game with his auto-lynch-adel attitude. I recall thinking that I had totally botched my Surye wagon, and was probably going to be responsible for our loss. Even though we won that game, I still think of it as a personal failure.

Before you vote me, are you aware that in my last game as scum (Mature Mafia) I got my entire scum through the entire game without a single loss? That was my next game as scum after Meta-Breaking Mafia, and I think I successfully applied the lessons I learned from Meta Breaking to Mature Mafia.

[Adel]

lol, I just scanned though my posts in Mature Mafia and it looks like I didn't vote for either of my scum buddies even once in that game!

[Adel]

I've been thinking about this game, and how it is stalled, and which characteristics town-win games share.

looking back over everyone's voting records, two players stand out: afatchic and ThAdmiral.

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).
  2. voted for tubby, hopefully under the impression that I was going to hammer IP.scum
  3. scum threat level: low. I don't think that he can out type any of the other players here (exception: IP) in endgame. I recently replaced into a game (still ongoing) where he was lynched on Day 1 and revealed (by the mod, which means that I can legally mention it in this game) to be scum. I doubt that has happened to Kison, Korts, Ecto, or ThAdmiral for a very long time, and I expect that development of endgame skill usually parallels skill in the opening game.
  4. utility to the town: low. The dude isn't putting work into the game, and I doubt he is will do much to increase our chances of success.

ThAdmiral

• 1. he is playing within his meta: lurking, with clear and concise posts. I don't mind his playstyle because he always leaves me with the impression that he is paying attention to the game, and his post usually have a high signal:noise ratio.
  2. he promised to vote for IP at deadline, and in a manner that lets me suspect that he didn't want tubby killed but he didn't want to be accountable for the IP lynch. I have trouble believing though that tubby's scum buddy wouldn't be on his wagon. I have not checked ThAdmiral's meta specifically to see what his voting behavior is towards scum buddies. There may be a huge tell waiting there. I expect his behavior will conform with the stereotype I have for him: slow and cautious play with no hasty moves.
  3. scum threat level: medium. With at least 3 of Kison, Korts, Ecto and I being town, ThAdmiral's usual strength as scum (absence of evidence against him) shouldn't be nearly as useful as it normally would be.
  4. town utility: medium. In 3 player endgame I trust his judgment more than pretty much anyone else here, including myself. Before then, he sucks.

I think our best chance of winning is to once again set up two competing wagons: afatchic and TheAdmiral. I am a huge believer in engineering a day so that there are two close and competing wagons. That was my intention yesterday, and I think I deserve a lot of the credit for how yesterday turned out. I built both wagons and pushed both along, and I picked the correct one for the lynch.

I will go ahead and

unvote:Korts

and

vote: ThAdmiral

because I think he has a chance of convincing me he is town by identifying scum and building a convincing case against them.

I do not think that afatchic or IP should be allowed to live until endgame. That isn't me setting up another lynch, that is me telling the gun holder(s) who to shoot.

[Adel]

btw, IP's late vote on Rage remains scummy as hell.

[Adel]

gods bless semi-open games. I don't think I'm ever going to play in any other kind again. My paranoia just got put to rest by rereading the first post.
eliminated concerns:
1. cults
2. death-millers
3. survivors

I still can't eliminate some kind of weirdness like a lone (mafia goon) with an independent win condition that has multiple non-killing power-role group abilities... but that would be a candidate for the

worst roles ever

thread in MD.

[afatchic]

I've been thinking about this game, and how it is stalled, and which characteristics town-win games share.

looking back over everyone's voting records, two players stand out: afatchic and ThAdmiral.

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).
  2. voted for tubby, hopefully under the impression that I was going to hammer IP.scum
  3. scum threat level: low. I don't think that he can out type any of the other players here (exception: IP) in endgame. I recently replaced into a game (still ongoing) where he was lynched on Day 1 and revealed (by the mod, which means that I can legally mention it in this game) to be scum. I doubt that has happened to Kison, Korts, Ecto, or ThAdmiral for a very long time, and I expect that development of endgame skill usually parallels skill in the opening game.
  4. utility to the town: low. The dude isn't putting work into the game, and I doubt he is will do much to increase our chances of success.

The game you are talking about i replaced into probably 5 months ago. it was the first time i had ever played as mafia, and wasn't exactly sure how to act. if you take a closer look at my meta, you will realize i have played a ridiculous amount of games between then and now. and right now the whole conv. seems to be going in circles. so no i don't have much to say right now, so if you see that as a reason to lynch me then go ahead. however i don't see it benificial to lynch the people you see who aren't the best talkers, but rather lynch the ones who are the best talkers. For someone like Me, IP, or ThAd, it would be extremely hard to fool the town in end game, while leaving some of the others could be detrimental to the town. If me-scum or ThAd-scum are in endgame, we are much more likely to catch our selves in a lie, than one of the smoother talkers in the game. so i don't really see the benefit to trying to lynch one of the two of us, solely because we won't be good in end game.

[afatchic]

EBWOP: my first day on MS, or any online mafia was 08/04/08, and i replaced into the game you are talking about on 08/24/08. so as i said, it has nearly been five months since that game, which was plagued by massive lurking. Since that game i would like to think i have improved, since that was in the first month that i was on this site.

[Adel]

however i don't see it benificial to lynch the people you see who aren't the best talkers, but rather lynch the ones who are the best talkers. For someone like Me, IP, or ThAd, it would be extremely hard to fool the town in end game, while leaving some of the others could be detrimental to the town. If me-scum or ThAd-scum are in endgame, we are much more likely to catch our selves in a lie, than one of the smoother talkers in the game. so i don't really see the benefit to trying to lynch one of the two of us, solely because we won't be good in end game.

ThAdmiral is strong in endgame as both town and scum. I don't think that you will be. Regardless of what your alignment is. Ecto and Kison and Korts are top-tier players. IP is not, and you are not. If you don't like my opinion of you, then please prove me wrong by identifying scum and convincing the rest of us to lynch him. One thing you and ThAdmiral have in common is a very low-content and low-opinion series of posts. We have less information on you. In endgame the person with the least information in their post history has the most flexibility of opinion and has less to explain or account for. Generally, in a 3 person endgame, the player with the least information in their post history will be on the winning side. This is a basic game mechanic, and has nothing to do with alignment. It is in the town's best interest for for the most active players to all make it into endgame. You also want players to not have been recently replaced. That is why some people, including myself, thought it was dirty when BM-scum replaced out of Nice Shot Mafia and his replacement wasn't held accountable for BM's actions because BM is an idiot. IP seems to be getting a newbie pass, and definitely doesn't seem likely to be getting replaced. How long is the newbie card good for? It has to expire before endgame, or else scum win: either the two IC-townies will tunnel in on each other or IC-scum will get him lynched.