Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[afatchic]

I kinda agree with a mass claim today. while it may result in a PR death tonight, it may also result in narrowing the suspect pool in half. givin only one maf left(would that be right, or will there be two). for instance if we had a doc claim, who made a correct save n0 and n2, then that would make 2 clear plus doc plus ecto, which gives 4/7 clear. and we have 3 lynches before we lose, which would result in a win... so i support a mass claim today, while we stilll have a couple of mislynches.

[Korts]

the day before lylo the town can test a claim without relying upon a coin flip.

Ah, but it is not the day before LYLO.

you are setting yourself up to fakeclaim in lylo for the win.

I'll be happy to disprove you with my claim when the time comes.

[Ectomancer]

No.

If you want to claim, claim. That will be left up to our individual town players. They have a far better view of the situation than we do. Particularly if there is a protection role. Scum can either decide to off me, or take a shot in the dark at someone else.

Town has far less to benefit from than does scum from my seat. As I said above, the individuals can decide when they best time to claim will be

unless

we have them on the hot chair. I will also actively work to prevent a systematic application of pressure to gain claims from all town members. You will have an actual case before any claim is supported by me.

[Kison]

To answer Ectomancer's question: 95% cleared. Serial Killer is a possibility, but vague given the lack of kills we've seen. I also doubt the possibility of multiple godfathers. It's

possible

, but i don't think I've ever seen that scenario in all my time here except in the instance of multiple

competing

scum groups.

It's also possible we're dealing with four scum, but again, I think this is unlikely in a twelve player scenario. That would also require ThAdmiral & Ectomancer being paired and a nice, beefy set of power roles.

for instance if we had a doc claim, who made a correct save n0 and n2, then that would make 2 clear plus doc plus ecto, which gives 4/7 clear.

You are assuming best case scenarios. For example, if we have a jailkeeper, then it's possible that either (A) they blocked scum who tried to kill, (B) they blocked/jailed the person scum

targeted

, or (C), another role was at work that prevented the kill. (A) and (B) are only valid for jailkeeper, but (C) is valid for any such role -- if we out both a roleblocker and a doc, then nothing can guarantee that we will pin down which role accounted for the absence of a kill. Nothing guarantees that their targets are still alive. Therefore, forcing a mass claim today is not going to guarantee beneficial information.

I still think tomorrow is the optimal time for mass claiming, if ever. Again, if we out a protective role, Ectomancer more than likely won't make it to the endgame.

[Adel]

ok then, I guess my reaction to Ecto was mostly OMGUS.

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

I am willing to drop the massclaim idea until tomorrow... just don't wait until lylo for massclaim!

[Korts]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto

Is this based on your read on him, or on something else?

[Adel]

voting patterns mostly. Since I was scum with Kison in SMM2, and nominated him for a scummy for his performance in that game, I am aware of his ability to pull a full game bus, and he did no such thing in this game.

[Ectomancer]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

[Adel]

@IP: where have you played mafia, besides this site?

[Korts]

voting patterns mostly. Since I was scum with Kison in SMM2, and nominated him for a scummy for his performance in that game, I am aware of his ability to pull a full game bus, and he did no such thing in this game.

Then I don't really agree with you. Ecto is near-confirmed through game mechanics, while Kison is more likely town due to a comparison between his voting patterns here and in a previous game.

Rereading, note how Adel attacks me the moment she sees an opening, however weak a point it is she can make.

Ecto, do you mean to say you suspect IP over Adel?

[TDC]

Vote Count

Adel (1): Korts
Korts (1): Adel

Not voting (5): Ectomancer, insanepenguin02, Kison, afatchic, ThAdmiral

[insanepenguin02]

@IP: where have you played mafia, besides this site?

There is a MMORPG called Goal Line Blitz and there are a group of people on there that MOD and play in our own games.

[insanepenguin02]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

[Ectomancer]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

Now that you've thought about it, explain why it is a bad idea for vanilla to claim offhand, even though all they can do is the basics.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, do you mean to say you suspect IP over Adel?

Are you asking me which of the theories I'm spinning is my front runner? I don't view them in that manner currently. It is also part of the method to my madness

that I won't answer that thought

until I'm ready to place a vote.

[insanepenguin02]

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

Now that you've thought about it, explain why it is a bad idea for vanilla to claim offhand, even though all they can do is the basics.

Because now, mafia knows that I am just a vanilla, which leads the power town roles to be on the others. The mafia knows right now who is scum and who is town. So now on their list of town, they have put me down as vanilla. With whatever theoretical town power roles out there, they have a better chance at killing one of them off at night. I actually feel safer MYSELF right now because of this, knowing that if the mafia kills me, they won't be gaining that much (the least they can possibly do) but as for the safety of the TOWN, the scum has a better chance at killing a power role now.

so that is why I think it is a bad idea for vanilla to claim right now. And hence my apologies.

[ThAdmiral]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

[insanepenguin02]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I know. But I think most of it comes from Adel, pointing out the claim and then Ecto wanting to know why I feel that it is a bad thing for the town. All in all, I find Adel more scummy for pointing it out today and Ecto even less scummy for wanting to know my thoughts on why I feel it is not beneficial for me to have claimed.

[Adel]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

[Ectomancer]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

ditto

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

[afatchic]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

ditto

Me as well...

Honestly, no offense IP, but i don't think he would have been able to try and pull of the buss on Tubby, which makes me think that after he actually put up some of his own case against him that it may not be him. Like i said yesterday, i only thought one of the two would be scum. I'm going to have to go back and reread, but i would be willing to bet the last scum is in one of those who pushed the IP wagon when the Tubby one started slowing down.

[insanepenguin02]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

I was Vanilla Townie and it all came down to a 2:1:1 and we voted no lynch on the last day hoping for a cross kill, which didn't happen and the Mafia won.

Another one I was killed in night 1 by mafia but it is still going on: Newbie 694:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 06#1326506

I was again Vanilla townie.

[insanepenguin02]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

ditto

Me as well...

Honestly, no offense IP, but i don't think he would have been able to try and pull of the buss on Tubby, which makes me think that after he actually put up some of his own case against him that it may not be him. Like i said yesterday, i only thought one of the two would be scum. I'm going to have to go back and reread, but i would be willing to bet the last scum is in one of those who pushed the IP wagon when the Tubby one started slowing down.

Just so that I understand, who are meaning by "he"?

[afatchic]

You (IP), therefore i don't think you are scum.