Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Ectomancer]

Hold off on lynching Tubby just yet.

I'm taking a look at everyone individually Afatchic, I'll have an answer for you, though if asked to give an answer right now, mine would mirror yours.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, I'm going to go with the Townie scale of 1 - Scum 10 - Town.

Ectomancer - 10
tubby216 - 7
insanepenguin02 - 3
Kison - 6
Korts - 7
afatchic - 9
Adel - 8 (based upon BOW, not Adel. Adel would be a 5)
Rage - 2
ThAdmiral - 7

[Ectomancer]

Trying to decide whether discussion surrounding our dead Gunsmith would be useful. At first I did, but while talking to myself the paths I followed didn't lead anywhere.

[Korts]

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

1. In order:
   1. Rage
   2. Adel
2. Rage

[TDC]

Vote Count

tubby216 (3): Kison, Korts, insanepenguin02
insanepenguin02 (3): Rage, tubby216, Adel
Kison (1): ThAdmiral

Not voting (2): afatchic, Ectomancer

[insanepenguin02]

vote: insanepenguin02

the way you vote without reasoning is quite interesting. Setting up traps, continuing wagons, I don't know the reason behind this one, as I'm sure nobody else does either.

[insanepenguin02]

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

a) 1-Rage, 2-afatchic (in order)

b) 1-Adel, 2-Rage

[insanepenguin02]

Hold off on lynching Tubby just yet.

Why?

[Adel]

remember this?


here is the rest of Day 3


and the way that insaneP joined the rage and tubby wagons without what I consider to be good reasons, leads me to suspect that he is more likely to be scum than tubby.

[Korts]

Hmm. Adel makes a fair point. But after the implied connection between tubby and Adel, I'd really like to see tubby lynched; if he does flip scum, the connection is now slightly more strongly implied.

I'm confident enough of Adelscum's skills to presume she wouldn't outright defend tubby, and she did vote him to L-1 recently; but I also think Adelscum wouldn't turn down the opportunity to lynch someone else over an incriminated partner, if she thinks she can make a strong enough case. And IP is the perfect target in case of a tubby-Adel scumteam.

[Ectomancer]

Hold off on lynching Tubby just yet.

Why?

I don't think he is scum.

[Kison]

vote: insanepenguin02

the way you vote without reasoning is quite interesting. Setting up traps, continuing wagons, I don't know the reason behind this one, as I'm sure nobody else does either.

This is typical. See this and this.

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

(A) Adel -> The second game I linked to above has Adel running her scumbuddy up to the verge of being lynched. When he (Surye) suddenly comes close to being lynched, she quickly jumps off and begins campaigning against someone else. (A) is the assumption that Tubby216 is scum, which would make :

unvote

for unstated reasons.

a very familiar scene.

I would also go with Rage, because nothing about Tubby216 flipping scum really distinguishes my suspicion of him, but rather puts more on the table.

(B) Rage -> Tubby216 flipping town would land me back here.

[Adel]

lol @ link to "meta breaking mafia". ABR messed that game up for me... I was so surprised that we won that game.

from the post game of meta breaking

This was the most uncordinated scum team I have ever been a part of.
Our quicktopic thread reads like a comedy of errors. As it worked out, my play certainly didn't help our team.

mad kudos to Surye for pulling out the win.


I don't see how Skruffs could've played any better than he did. I think this game illustrated how lurking by townies really hurts the towns chances of winning. More active posting by members of the town really would've changed the course of the game.

and from the post game of mini 488, the other game kison linked to

I guess i was very very wrong about Jenter being scum. As a vanilla townie, once there was a wagon of decent strength on me I was willing to take it. I felt that I could've argued my way out of it, but only at the risk of the next wagon outing the doctor. I felt that taking the lynch without outing the doctor would give the cop at least one, and hopefully two, additional investigations.

[ThAdmiral]

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

a)afatchic or ip
b)kison

[Adel]

I keep on getting sidelined by
c) what if tubby and IP are both town

I have a very weary respect for Kison and Korts as scum, and the possibility of Ecto the Godfather is giving me a real headache.

I don't have enough information from afatchic in this game to have a clue about his alignment, and to a lesser extent the same is true for ThAdmiral.

I think Rage's alignment will either be proven by his death by NK or by his lack of death and lack of testable results.

I am really hoping for game breaking power-role revealed information tomorrow.

Anyway, Rage is out of contention for me since I figure we'll know about him soon enough. I don't have enough information on afatchic or ThAdmiral to really consider them. So out of IP, Kison, Korts, and Ecto
If Tubby is scum, I think IP is the best lynch.
If Tubby is not scum, and especially if Rage is not scum as well, Kison seems best.

[tubby216]

ok so if everything hinges off of my lynch,

why do i still live??

[Ectomancer]

Because I'm not going to lynch you and I have been asking for delays while I think things through. My re-read says IP should die today, with Rage revealing his actions tomorrow.

vote InsanePenguin

[afatchic]

@Kison 836- i believe adels unvote for unstated reasons was on me but i may be wrong.

Also i was hoping to somehow use the info of who everyones second suspect was given alignment of the lynchee to somehow guide a vig shot if we have one. however it doesn't seem like we would be able to come to any kind of consensus, especially since no one has a read on me, and some not on ThAdmiral. what is everyone thoughts about this?

[Kison]

She voted Tubby216 in post 687 and unvoted in post 705

[afatchic]

She voted Tubby216 in post 687 and unvoted in post 705

Oh i never saw the change from me to tubby, which is why i never paid any attention to it since i didn't think unvoting the "lurker" would require explanation.

[Adel]

I'm not saying that it is a bad idea, but I want to bring up some possible dangers:
1. scum can use the same information to help plan NKs and future mislynches
2. if we are dealing with lurking scum (like afatchic+ThAdmiral) the vig kills are probably going to be against active players which could leave us in mislynch-and-lose tomorrow.
3. if the Gun Inventor gave guns to two different townies, then both might be used on the same target.

~~~
one unstated reason for my tubby unvote was IP's jump onto the tubby bandwagon. It seemed to me that it might be a typical scum "wall of words that concludes why I am jumping on this bandwagon" post... with the minor "forgot to give lynch -1 warning" universal scumtell to boot.
I wasn't sure if I wanted to join Rage and tubby on the IP wagon at that time, and I was also worried about lazy townies following me around.

[afatchic]

I'm not saying that it is a bad idea, but I want to bring up some possible dangers:
1. scum can use the same information to help plan NKs and future mislynches
2. if we are dealing with lurking scum (like afatchic+ThAdmiral) the vig kills are probably going to be against active players which could leave us in mislynch-and-lose tomorrow.
3. if the Gun Inventor gave guns to two different townies, then both might be used on the same target.

yeah after doing the math it doesn't seem that productive. all it does is give away our mislynch. i think we may should set it up for if we do hit scum today, giving us another ml, for the vig to shoot.
Maybe just decide on a second lynch given the first is scum, and say whoever recieved a gun Night 1 shoot this person. its about the best i can come up with.

[insanepenguin02]

So one more vote and you lynch me. And all I have to say right now is GO TOWN as I am a Vanilla townie. I don't have the slightest idea who the scum is but I know it is not me. But lynching me could provide some more feedback as to who the scum really is. I would have to say that a couple people that have voted for me would probably be scum but it is hard to tell who.

Anything you guys want from me before I get a hammer?

[insanepenguin02]

If I were a vig with a gun or somebody that can kill at night though (other than mafia), I would have to go with tubby. Cause since I'm not mafia and plenty of you have said it is either tubby or myself, I guess you will be targeting tubby after all. I would say it would be a good bet.

[Rage]

I'm sorry this was put off for so long, but exams are coming up and my teachers have been shoveling as much as they can on me as they can, but I have had time to review the case I had on insanepenguin02.

Most relevant points against insanepenguin02:

1. His first vote in the game was on darkdude because the points on him
   seemed
   , as he put it, to be pointing in the direction of scum. No explanation of how.
   
2. He unvotes darkdude when he claims and revotes him at the time where darkdude claims scum.. except insanepenguin02 says he didn't see that claim at all. Yes, the claim was followed up by his unvote, additional analysis against darkdude by players other than insanepenguin02, because we have no proof of that. Anyways, there isn't any backing for either vote/unvote and explaining it now doesn't mean as much as it would have when he 'committed' those actions. His explanations now are also contradictory: first, he says that his vote on darkdude was because he found darkdude scummy immediately upon entering the game; second, his explanation of his unvote was that he didn't want to kill a townie but this contradicts his earlier explanation of why he voted for darkdude, finding him suspicious immediately into the game. As far as I know, the only way to prove that someone's scum as soon as you enter the game is with role-related information, which I figure in this game game can only be a cop investigation or a mafia bussing their partner. The cop was dead at this point.
   
3. He has explained that because Darkdude was scum, him being on the wagon means he's town. This is never a good way to clear who is and isn't scum, because scum could just as easily vote for each other as town could vote for them, and if this was a way to clear people then the people not voting for the lynched scum would be scum themselves, which insanepenguin02 has not used against anyone. There's a higher chance of scum thwarting a theory as easy to thwart as this.
   
4. He provided reasoning to accompany his vote on me that was different than what he explains his reasons to be later. Then, he said that he thought I had resulted nothing from him during night (which is true, but the way that he puts it is that I shouldn't be voting for him if I have no result on him, which is just silly) and that the other votes on me
   seemed
   to be justified and that
   some
   cases against me he
   could
   agree with. This reasoning is so weak I can see why he changed it to voting for me to "test the waters" which, again, is just plain silly. He's provided no pro-town reason for his vote on me.

Before a lynch, I'd like to see tubby216's and Korts' analysis of everyone. I agree with insanepenguin02 that tubby216 looks as though he's been lurking throughout the game, and between his and insanepenguin's lynch, this would be a perfect opportunity for him to speak his mind about the players.

I'm happy with insanepenguin02's lynch.

------
I'm going to be really busy for the next couple of days, as major projects are scheduled to be presented/handed in for those days, and I can't foretell anything about the days after that. If I'm alive before January 25, know that I'll be studying like crazy for exams, and if I'm alive after January 29, know that I'll have a lot more time on my hands.