Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[ThAdmiral]

In 3 player endgame I trust his judgment more than pretty much anyone else here, including myself.

Before then, he sucks

.

'Tis true, sadly.

Basically I don't know how useful a case from me will be though. I don't really have strong feelings about anyone (apart from ecto who I feel strongly is town) and would have to make up one from scratch. Furthermore I think my read of this game in general has been bad, so I don't know how much you could trust any case I brought up anyway.

I mean I could do it (and probably will), but I also think you could just kill me, ip and afatchic and either one of us would come up as scum and town would win, or even if one of us didn't I'd trust the remaining town members to win it from there.

[ThAdmiral]

By the way I will be gone for the next 2 days.

Down to the beach.

[Korts]

I don't see what I can or should say at this point. I still think Adel is scum; her questioning of IP seemed to me like scum angling for a slip.

[TDC]

Vote Count

Adel (1): Korts
ThAdmiral (1): Adel

Not voting (5): Ectomancer, insanepenguin02, Kison, afatchic, ThAdmiral

[Ectomancer]

Adel's latest emphasis on IP seems to be one of a utility lynch what with all the ego stroking going on. (not that she isn't right, I think I've only been lynched Day 1 once and as town :ego: )

On the flip hand, some things she has said has a town ring to it.

Once again, still trying to find town/scum Adel.

[Adel]

unvote:Korts

vote: ThAdmiral

[Adel]

I fail at reading comprehension. I thought the mod had missed my vote for ThAdmiral.

[insanepenguin02]

I don't see what I can or should say at this point. I still think Adel is scum; her questioning of IP seemed to me like scum angling for a slip.

I got the same feel from the questioning.

[Ectomancer]

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).

Sorry Adel, I thought the same thing, and I also thought that the greater number of replacements, the more likely the role was to be vanilla townie. And then I got burned. Check Mini 701 viewtopic.php?t=9754&start=0. 4 replacements aannnd......Godfather. I was floored.

[Adel]

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).

Sorry Adel, I thought the same thing, and I also thought that the greater number of replacements, the more likely the role was to be vanilla townie. And then I got burned. Check Mini 701 viewtopic.php?t=9754&start=0. 4 replacements aannnd......Godfather. I was floored.

I know that there are exceptions, but I think that there is a trend that is true more often than it is not. No money-back guarantee, but it is better than throwing darts at a board.

[Ectomancer]

I went through a lot of games and checked multiple replacements. I also found scum at 3 replacements, and several after 1 or 2.
I didn't want to talk about my theory to anyone because I was afraid of meta actions that might be taken to take advantage of that tell, and I didn't want to disturb the spirit of the game. Thing is, my experience and a little research tell me that isn't a reliable indicator, and at this point approaches null.

[Adel]

how can we quantify this? What is the threshold point where it isn't a null tell.

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

[Kison]

Before you vote me, are you aware that in my last game as scum (Mature Mafia) I got my entire scum through the entire game without a single loss? That was my next game as scum after Meta-Breaking Mafia, and I think I successfully applied the lessons I learned from Meta Breaking to Mature Mafia.

I've read parts of it, but I'll look at it again (nice slaughter, by the way! ). The problem is that if you never voted your partners, I'm not going to see much of how you handle bussing, other than avoidance. What makes Tubby216 and Surye comparable was that they both left themselves open to attack(Tubby216 being the more extreme case), and what

looks

like panic when both almost reached lynch. Without seeing that same situation in Mature Mafia, I don't think I can extinguish the parallel I'm seeing. The exception would be that you feel you're become more cautious when it comes to voting your scumbuddies ever since Meta Breaking, which brings me to this question: What do you think enabled you to avoid bussing in Mature Mafia?

[Kison]

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

I don't think you can set any predefined value to the probability of scum replacement being scummy. Instead, I think what you'd have to do is independently find the probability of scum being replaced, and compare that to the probability of town being replaced. You then compare that probability, and the difference between the two gives you the town/scum tell you're looking for.

I may look over 100 games and find that 90% of scum players tend to be replaced, but that means nothing if I also look at the town players and find that they have a 90% chance of being replaced as well.

[Adel]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

[Ectomancer]

how can we quantify this? What is the threshold point where it isn't a null tell.

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

No, that's not how I did it. I went through and looked to see which games had replacements, whether they were replaced 1,2,3,4...times and what alignment was revealed. As I believe that the typical scum/town ratio is 1/3, I would think that 1 scum showing up in multiple replacements should occur only 33% as often as town.
IIRC, early replacements (1 or 2) might have exceeded that level. I think people get into early trouble and bail out, leaving a replacement to pick up the pieces of a role.
I thought for sure that as I got higher the scum roles would disappear, but they didn't.

Now, as far as statistics go, I'm not certain there are enough completed games for a valid sample, but you could certainly try. It would be interesting to see the result, and for far more than just this current game.

I realize that we are discussing this in context of Afatchic, but this also applies to you Adel, so I question which side of the theory you stand on right now. But, we haven't seen the numbers yet.
In your particular situation Adel, you find yourself as the single replacement (which I think you are saying is a minor town tell), and you are replacing a player who could be as I described above, someone who got themselves into hot water as scum, wasn't sure what to do and bailed out.

I know you are getting the primary little snipes from me, but these are things as they occur to me. You, as with most veteran players, are almost constantly under suspicion unless I've seen game or psychological mechanics that tell me town.

[Adel]

unless I've seen game or psychological mechanics that tell me town.

like lynching tubby and darkdude?
for a psychological tell try this: I like to win in a total and dominating way. Getting my entire crew through Mature Mafia was a win I am proud of. tubby never would've gotten lynched without my interrogation, and it was my hammer that killed him. If I was scum with him he would not have lynched yesterday.

[Ectomancer]

I dont get the tubby and darkdude reference. Darkdude was scum as I strongly suspected he would be. Tubby I didnt think was scum. Yes, clearly I get it wrong sometimes, else I would be the Paragon of Scum Hunting (I think).

I shift up strategy as scum constantly. I don't see why you wouldn't do the same. On the other hand, I dont see any more strength in an argument for a bus than against.

[Adel]

they were offered as examples of game mechanics: what effect have I had in on the game.

[insanepenguin02]

Sorry, but what is the goal of the discussions going on lately? I feel that much more time is being spent talking about other games than this game.

[afatchic]

Sorry, but what is the goal of the discussions going on lately? I feel that much more time is being spent talking about other games than this game.

QFT

[Ectomancer]

FFS there is no fricking QFT. Seriously, keep up with the game. This is about gauging someone's towniness based off of number of replacements and it very much applies to what the discussion is in THIS game.
Why dont you READ it and comment on THIS game and the remarks made by players in THIS game. You can assure me that you understand by telling me who Adel is trying to use this game mechanic to clear, what the game mechanic is, why I don't agree, and why I think this could be a suspicious push.

[Korts]

FWIW I think Adel is probably pushing this line of discussion more because of her role getting replaced than because of afatchic. And FWIW I think getting replaced is not indicative of alignment overall. If town get replaced more often it's only because there are more town than scum.

[Adel]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

What do you think enabled you to avoid bussing in Mature Mafia?

Careful play, not drawing attention to myself or my scumbuddys, leaving false bus links to DGB in case I got caught, letting active townies lynch each other, undermining the signal:noise ratio, and magnifying Out Of Context problems to discourage townies from getting too attached to the game.

I also suspect that tubby did not leave himself open to attack. I attacked him out of the blue, and got him lynched, which is in important difference from Surye who won the game by surviving.

[Adel]

I've been thinking about this game, and how it is stalled, and which characteristics town-win games share.

looking back over everyone's voting records, two players stand out: afatchic and ThAdmiral.

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).
  2. voted for tubby, hopefully under the impression that I was going to hammer IP.scum
  3. scum threat level: low. I don't think that he can out type any of the other players here (exception: IP) in endgame. I recently replaced into a game (still ongoing) where he was lynched on Day 1 and revealed (by the mod, which means that I can legally mention it in this game) to be scum. I doubt that has happened to Kison, Korts, Ecto, or ThAdmiral for a very long time, and I expect that development of endgame skill usually parallels skill in the opening game.
  4. utility to the town: low. The dude isn't putting work into the game, and I doubt he is will do much to increase our chances of success.

ThAdmiral

• 1. he is playing within his meta: lurking, with clear and concise posts. I don't mind his playstyle because he always leaves me with the impression that he is paying attention to the game, and his post usually have a high signal:noise ratio.
  2. he promised to vote for IP at deadline, and in a manner that lets me suspect that he didn't want tubby killed but he didn't want to be accountable for the IP lynch. I have trouble believing though that tubby's scum buddy wouldn't be on his wagon. I have not checked ThAdmiral's meta specifically to see what his voting behavior is towards scum buddies. There may be a huge tell waiting there. I expect his behavior will conform with the stereotype I have for him: slow and cautious play with no hasty moves.
  3. scum threat level: medium. With at least 3 of Kison, Korts, Ecto and I being town, ThAdmiral's usual strength as scum (absence of evidence against him) shouldn't be nearly as useful as it normally would be.
  4. town utility: medium. In 3 player endgame I trust his judgment more than pretty much anyone else here, including myself. Before then, he sucks.

I think our best chance of winning is to once again set up two competing wagons: afatchic and TheAdmiral. I am a huge believer in engineering a day so that there are two close and competing wagons. That was my intention yesterday, and I think I deserve a lot of the credit for how yesterday turned out. I built both wagons and pushed both along, and I picked the correct one for the lynch.

I will go ahead and

unvote:Korts

and

vote: ThAdmiral

because I think he has a chance of convincing me he is town by identifying scum and building a convincing case against them.

I do not think that afatchic or IP should be allowed to live until endgame. That isn't me setting up another lynch, that is me telling the gun holder(s) who to shoot.

FWIW I think Adel is probably pushing this line of discussion more because of her role getting replaced than because of afatchic. And FWIW I think getting replaced is not indicative of alignment overall. If town get replaced more often it's only because there are more town than scum.

I'm "pushing it"?