New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: I am Innocent

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=22959

This has been a long time coming …

p-edit: welp i wonder if thats real

Of course it isn’t real. Have you ever played with Shotty before?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@zakk

– Hey answer my question …

Nope, never. How likely do you think he is consciously faking his own meta?

You aren’t zakk … but anyway ..

My current opinion is – not very. If you know what to look for I think he’s able to be read fairly successfully via meta. He's never got me to divulge what those keys are so I'm not too worried about him tainting his own play.

And lol-fake-daykills are not one of the keys and is pretty alignment irrelevant to Shotty.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm harder to read than... well something hard to read.

No, you aren't. You know you aren't so stop puffing out your chest like Big Bad Leroy Brown.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA starting at 4pm EDT today until Monday morning for my usual family weekend duties.

@zakk

– Answer my question from 26 in your next post or I’m voting you and channeling Kuribo to get your lynch pushed through today.

I find the Ircher wagon baffling. Statistical fluff talk in RVS isn’t alignment indicative at all. Scummiest jumps onto the wagon are Kill and Brawl in my mind.

Matt can be Town for 160.

@Titus

– Please explain what you are trying to say relationally in 99 to 101. I’ve read that sequence three times now and I can’t understand what point you are trying to make.

@Ircher, What you saw isn't a legit 3p claim. I saw it too but Seth likes baiting and drama.

Links if they can be provided please.

+1, I like this post.

What specifically do you like about it?

VOTE: Brawl

I’d also be content with a killthestory wagon. The out-sided reaction to Egg asking him his alignment while completely ignoring Lowell who did the exact same thing to 4 players is telling. He doesn’t think that someone asking players if they are. Top off the “You are so dumb” posts lobbed at Egg for a helping of scummy.

I voted Nosferatu cause correcting Ircher on statistics is something that a townie looking for scum is less likely to do.

Well given that half the wagon on Ircher was driven by calling him scum for badly mangling statistics I can’t see this as valid at all. Why not anyone else. Brawl, who you are floating as Town, is just as guilty as Nos in my mind.

@Seth
Alternatively you can tell me which one, if any, of {Robert, I am Innocent, Magma} is also scum.

Any reason you didn’t wait until everyone in that group had actually posted?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My read on shotty is actually based on a tell I believe I found while doing pre-game research. I found a town game and a scum game and I read ISOs of both looking for differences in tone/attitude/tendencies. If anyone is interested, I suggest you do the same and come to your own conclusions, as I would rather not taint impressions if you can figure it out yourself, plus #effort.
shotty's most recent completed scum game that i looked at
Another scum game i checked out to test my theory on the tell. it applied.
shotty's most recent completed town game.
another town game i used to test the tell; it applied. however, this game is kind of old and i wasn't able to find a more recent town game, but i believe it is a valid tell for him.

Persivul is my first town read so far, only because I feel like he'd just be a dick to me if he wasn't.

On an initial basis I have to say I disagree with your meta read on Shotty. I have two specific markers I read for in him and he’s really not showing either to this point. And it is very early.

What do you think of Pers as a player vis-a-vie skill level?

[MagnaofIllusion]

like, would i trust his reads/observations if i felt he was town enough? probably not, but that's more a comment on my own misplaced arrogance than on his actual skill level. to be real with you, i dont know. i haven't really played in a while and i dont recognize a lot of the names on this list. the last time i played with persivul, he was scum, i caught him, he pissed me off and then i just modded games for a long while (not related to him pissing me off - i got busy with school). i think he was pretty new then? he seems different now, more mellowed out, more seasoned, and i'm sure he's learned things along the way as he's probably played more while i've been gone.

i've just rambled a bunch of irrelevant nonsense. but ihope it answers your question.

Well seeing this I think your flippant “Pers is scum because he would piss me off” Town read is nonsense then. You acknowledge that he seems more seasoned as a player. Which would include both his Scum and Town games. Yet you are happy giving him a snap Town read based on him not pissing you off. Which is based on the old Pers not the new. There’s a pretty wide disconnect there.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well seeing this I think your flippant “Pers

isn't

scum because he would piss me off” Town read is nonsense then

EBWOP

[MagnaofIllusion]

ok. it's based on my last experience with him, which was only a few months ago, and he was aggressive as scum. you're free to ignore my read on him if you like, but yeah i'm happy to give him a gut town read, because that's how i feel, and i mentioned why so others could make their own determination about whether they agreed or not. you disagree. ok. you don't have to agree with me.

To be fair it is more about reading you than agreeing or disagreeing that Pers is scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey Titus is would be fantastic if you'd stop treating me like a Ghost and answering my questions at 232, yaknow ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I meant that I only see that Zakk is scum if copper is scum. That got pretty garbled.

And links cannot be provided.

Ok, thanks. I guess I have to do legwork on my own then.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Analysis of what happened. If you don't think Zakk was doing anything, we interpret things differently. I think every post, every word, everything has meaning. I don't see Zakk sheeping. He's pushing too hard to be a sheep. The last is the answer. I've been told I shoot down ideas though. I was never reaching Zakk scum based on his opening without Copper scum but I've been told that I am very dickish in approaching things that way. So I tried saying it another way.

Do you have experience with zakk that supports this? I understand your point but you know very well that playstyle tends to drive behavior not alignment. I can think of a number of aggressive styled players who would come out swinging in RVS. I’m sure you can too. I’ve got zach very Null right now.

The question seems clearly rhetorical to me.

No, it isn’t. Why do you think it is? Personally I absolutely want that answer from zakk.

Nos started the game focusing on that aspect, which is a key difference.

Put yourself in the shoes of scumhunter extraordinare Nostradamus who has a few pages to sift through and look for alignments, does pursuing Ircher's understanding of statistics seem like a priority to you? On the other hand scum extraordinaire Nostradamus likely wants to look for crumbs, determine which players may be dangerous for him and look to be active while doing nothing, especially if he can join a ready made wagon from Titus, he also appears to be debating the Ircher issues without really giving a read about it.

Um so did Brawlguy (102). So did Killthestory (96). Now I grant you that there is only 2 pages of play for them as opposed to three for Nos. I just don’t see why you are ignoring those two to look at Nos.

Also – do you have some experience with Nos that says scum-hunter beast? I don’t.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA,

Will be catching up in chunks since the thread developed strongly over my V/LA.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 13 to 16

Floating, disconnected Killthestory is scum killthestory. Posts like 380 are symptoms of that particular malady that we can cure with rope.

You are again comparing posts that are superficially similar in the wording but appear to come from completely different mindsets, 102 and 104 are players (BGT and KTS) saying idgaf about statistics, back to the real game please, Nosferatu took the time to examine what Ircher wrote and comment on his ability to do so correctly, now there are reasons why town Nos would do so as well but it is less likely compared to scum Nos doing the same thing hence the vote on him in particular.

Meh. I think you are blowing minor differences out of proportion personally.

Magna, you said you were trying to read ETL with that question. What did you decide?

I did not like the response. Overall his activity and focus on a few different topics seem Town. Yet his response was “Well, it’s a gut read and you can disagree” seems like a fall-back when I asked him to explain . I generally don’t listen strongly to opinions driven by claimed gut only reads as I don’t find them relatable. Without reasoning to analyze it’s basically “Meh, trust me” which is very antithetical to my personal Mafia philosophy. If you’ve got gut that’s fine but you have to be able to show me something that tracks from a logic standpoint if you want me to buy in. In that case the logic in his response (Pers developed as a player) went directly against his gut read.

Also don’t like 321 as ETL is conflagrating playstyle (being conservative with voting) with alignment.

(and lol. chill. no i haven't played with shitty that i can recall. and i think i'd recall.)

Ok then. Do you have any game experience with faked Dayvigs then?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 17 to 19

@H_alone

– I see your response to me at 403. On some level I agree but can I get your read on Brawl please?

Egg continues to be Town. 410 is a prime example. He’s casting a wide net and actively looking to solve the game.

@Ircher

– can you point me to any prior game you’ve used this point analysis system before? The only game we have in common you didn’t for obvious reasons.

the last game is a scum game.

I don't know how to feel about shotty literally not clicking on any of these links except the last one.

Interesting. I’d already stated I thought ETL’s meta read was incorrect but this puts a new spin on it.

How do you feel about ETL providing an incorrect alignment in the last game and then appending “I used the test; it applied” to support his meta read?

This reeks of coaching. I take it scum don't have daytalk, eh?

Dislike, dislike, dislike. Because in thread coaching would require there to be no Daytalk. Yet there is no way to determine whether scum have daytalk of not at this stage. I direct everyone to the wiki for Normal Standards … http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

Mafia may have daytalk without an Encryptor as long as it is announced in the game's rules beforehand.

Rules don’t specify Daytalk. But there is no way right now to know if there is an Encryptor or not in the set-up. So drawing conclusions on Daytalk and linking reads to them is poor.

I don’t like this because ETL is experienced enough to easily be able to look this up without prompting. Yet he / she (yeah, no gender indication in profile … so not going to assume) is happy to just assume away. Inside info leaking out subconsciously perhaps?

Titus I suspect you and Ircher are both scum together, and of the two, you are the more dangerous. I'm happy to vote Ircher as well if it comes to that - he certainly seems like someone you've been trying to keep alive.

Oh so you’ve drawn a relation tell on Titus that hinges solely on coaching which requires Ircher to be scum. And you’d rather vote Titus as she’s “more dangerous”? I don’t recall any other Titus scum-read posts from you. Did I miss some?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 20 to current

While I know it is a playstyle tell I like 495. I’d go so far as to say that philosophy is proper Town mindset.

Is 572 the signs of a killthestory wagon forming? Brawl’s wagon has dispersed (a little too easily for my taste) and I hate idling my vote uselessly.

VOTE: killthestory

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

Didn’t you just knock Titus in 516 as scummy for leaving her options open to jump to different lynches? Because I read this response as being exactly what you are damning Titus for.

Why do you think the early exchange is Scum versus scum? Please elaborate.

532 looks very fabricated. Scum happen to be the top wagons, Shotty and Titus whose scum reads are based on relational tells to the top wagons.

You neeed to elaborate on your scumread on me. Cuz, your explanation so far is not convincing to me nor lynchworthy.

This is the first post of Ircher’s I actually read as coming from scum.

Any explanation on this?

Not that I’m going to share at this stage. If I absolutely need to make a case on Shotty and I see scum indication from my tell-markers (and I’m not currently) I may do it. I’m not outing them now as they are them rendered useless going forward.

Killthestory (no change on him)

Explain this read in detail. Lurky, slide-by Kill is scum kill. His ISO has no depth to investigating the game-state and trying to find scum. It is pretty much 100% “Lolz U stupid for suspecting me” and even then he draws no read on Egg while doing it. How is this Town?

Do you mean meta on KillTheStory? No. His posts show genuine scumhunting plus paranoia.

Point to a single post that shows scum-hunting.

Also, Egg - I don't particularly find the peacemaker routine a town-thing generally.

1. Do you find it a scum tell?
2. Do you think Egg’s ISO is anything but Town trying to find scum?

BAM.

Titus is scum. With Ircher.

*dance*

God this is bad. I’ve already explained why.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Titus

- any ETL scum games of note I should review that you could point me to? I feel like I need to take a dive into that pool for some research.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok ... diving on my own then.

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP: to clarify - i only got through about 4 people in pre-game rsearch before i got bored, and shotty's tell was the most solid, so i ISO'd him to see if it was here, and it is.

Who else did you meta research?

Have you ever done this as Town before?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I assumed no daytalk because Titus' posts to Ircher looked like in-game coaching. I think that's pretty clear... like.. THAT is where the assumption came from... yet you somehow come up with some cockamamey roundabout explanation that I must have known such-and-such.. ya know, despite the fact that I do not play Normals, ever.

1. Are you incapable of doing research? You’ve presented that you are a competent player. The first time I had the “What are the Normal standards on MS” since I returned this year I immediately went the Wiki to actually look at the Normal standards. Pretty obvious course of action I think. Yet you are leaning on “I don’t player Normals” pretty damn hard.

Yet you immediately jump to the conclusion that Titus was coaching without any flips to make that assessment based on. Personally I can completely see Town Titus telling whatever alignment Ircher to stop dry-humping her leg if that’s what she felt he was doing. Yet that didn’t even cross your mind.

You’ve made several huge leaps of faith, one of which requires you to reverse your “Ircher is Newbtown” stance, to get to Titus and Ircher are scumbuddies and Titus is coaching. Leaps I don't see as following a logical thought process.

2. Can you point me to a game where a coaching accusation ever panned out? Because I don’t ever recall one.

No, you misunderstand me. I don't think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support". I think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support, I'll be on whatever's biggest" rather than "here are the three lynches I support, and I currently prefer _____ Lynch". The former says to me that you don't have any actual scumreads, because if you did, one would naturally be the most appealing for some reason.

The whole "you're dead" thing and the stats discussion coming off each other are both pretty dumb, and the stats discussion comes from nowhere. It reads to me like they wanted to distance early D1, and after the daykill thing started to lose steam they had to come up with something else, and that spawned the stats argument. Go read the first 5 pages and tell me that Ircher/Shotty don't fit the description of two scum who decided on a hard distance gambit.

1. I think you are specifically splitting hairs on what is and what isn’t a Townie way to present suspicion of multiple players.

2. Your serious contention is that scum-partners in a Large game decided that the best course of action Day 1 is to immediately come into the thread and hard distance with frankly stupid content (fake daykill and stats argument are both dumb). With the end effect being at least 1 (and maybe more) players thought it was obvious distancing?

[MagnaofIllusion]

although magma is probably scum trying to move the focus off Titus and richer and onto me. that rarely works out well, just so you know

So now I can be added to your "Scum with Titus and Ircher" pool. Gotcha.

You must have me mistaken for someone who sees scum motivated play, scum-hunts said player, and backs off when an "Appeal to Proficiency" is dropped. You should probably know that doesn't work out well for scum

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have personally done that, and on more than one occasion. It looks a lot like this.

Links please.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey magna, You should totally join me on Cy.

I might. Currently I’m wrestling with the concern that his join date means overwhelmed Newbie as opposed to brazen scumbag. At this stage I think his wagon is better than Ircher’s but I’d prefer Brawl or Kill at the moment. Give me a couple days to keep grinding.

I'm not going to go back through 4 years of games on my homesite to link you.

Then why bother making empty statements like “I do it as scum” if you can’t show that to be true?

[MagnaofIllusion]

the cy wagon has gotten stale of late, it's a bunch of me-toos, and a cy flip will tell us too little

So your whole "Caught scum with my epic trap" play on Cy was what exactly again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

see who jumps on, see how cy acts, see how much steam it gets, see what happens

currently dissatisfied with that prospect, and pushing another direction

what are your thoughts about that?

I think you are jumpier than a jackrabbit on meth. I'd have to ISO you but I'd guess you've had your vote on at least 5 different people. Which is at this stage a big fat null.

Now once we get some alignment flips and I can parse how you jumped regarding Town and scum ... a different bag of donuts.

Hey since you missed it - have you ever been exposed to someone fake-daykilling before?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Pretty sure Ircher is Town at this stage. Note how easily other wagons (Cy, Brawl I’m specificially looking at) just fade away regardless of any actual thread involvement from them. But Ircher’s wagon is still going strong. I’d be even more confident if he bothered to show up and answer my question.

@Seth

– are you an Alt? Your statements about “new players” when your join date is this month strike me as not new-player based.

@ETL

– you keep calling Titus scum. Do you think she is bussing TBG then?

why are you asking me useless questions? what do you hope to discover?

Far from useless. I’m getting a baseline for the amount of fluff you are willing to just throw around. For example – there was absolutely no reason for a micro-second to believe that Shotty’s fake dayvig was real (nor likewise Ircher’s later reply in kind). Yet you were willing to go right with in and tell Ircher he couldn’t vote he was dead. So either you are a complete moron (I don’t think this is the case) or are willing to be Jokey the Joker who Jokes. Which isn’t in and of itself alignment indicative but will be helpful to judge later interactions you have with.

Why did you assume my question was useless?

The further this game goes on, the more I become suspicious of Killthestory/of the belief that he very well might be scum. I initially kind of read his aloofness as coming from a town place, but it looks like he's using it to coast. However, I'm only not super inclined to vote him primarily because him flipping would give us very little information, since his actual stated reads/interactions are generally pretty small.

This reeks of classic distancing. Kill flips scum as I think he will and Matt should be next up against the wall.

Also dislike the vote on Seth in 640. Read that post again. Tons of words indicating why some players aren’t scum. Not a single word related to why Seth is scum. In fact that vote is the first time Seth’s name has appeared in Project’s ISO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, you down for an ETL wagon? Magna, if not, vote TBG?

Yes. To both questions.

VOTE: Brawl - his wagon is bigger as of the current moment.

I don't have enough data to determine that at this time. There's just as much possibility of multiball as there is for single-team mafia. At the moment, I have several scumreads and I'm voting them as I feel more or less confident as the day goes on.

You don’t have enough data to determine that Titus was coaching Ircher either but that didn’t stop you from long-jumping to that conclusion earlier. Yes, so you don't feel the need to make some smart-ass commment about it, I find that inconsistency scummy.

Admittedly, this is partially my fault for keeping a lot of notes to myself in my head but not outlining them very well on paper. I've been considering Seth - I actually initially read him as newbie town. However, I felt prompted to give him another look, as you can see in 567. After reading through again, I actually considered him to be more likely to be scum. I'll try to expand on that and my other reads in a compiled "big wall of text post" with all my thoughts and reads together.

I’d be pleased to see this.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Trajectory is also not a buzzword. Trajectory is the line of a person's thoughts from the start of the game until the end. Basically, how the reads evolve.

No, it's a buzzword. A game-valid buzzword but still ... you could always say "development"

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Ircher

– this is right up front in case you missed it – have you ever used this point system in the past? If so please send me a link. If not can you explain where you saw it in action, what results you saw it yield and why you chose it this game?

Her reason for scumreading TBG no longer was valid. She was voting Ircher without a scumread on him. She accused me of being scum, with her townread, solely bc I defended him. You also highlighted inconsistencies with her votes. They make zero sense throughout the game.

Everyone should read this carefully - it is a tidy little summary for why ETL is solidly scummy.

Erm... you seem to know a lot about ETL. Yet you had no information that ETL's a woman.

I know ETL exactly from this thread. I know she has a fairly high opinion of her own play level (236). I know she’s claimed over 70 games here on MS and her join date indicates seasoned player.

Is this just IIoA from you?

Hell your whole series of catch-up posts from 822 to 827 looks like a giant case of IIoA. You quote tons of things, make some side comments that may or may not indicate you think said quotes are scummy, and your summary names not a single Town or Scum read. Just some song and dance about “being conflicted”.

Folllowed by a stupid HAHA post. Which I find interesting given questioned Seth about roleplaying when you went out of your way to do that as well instead of actually advancing the game.

Scummy as hell.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Whut?
Knowing ETL's gender is an IIOA?

No your statement is IIoA. You wrote “Shouldn’t you know her gender if you have so much information about ETL” which is meant to imply it is scummy not to. Yet it is clear that ETL doesn’t have a gender option listed and long time players have in the past specifically made it a mystery (Vi the most famous example off the top of my head). And you don’t draw any actual conclusion … you just leave it hanging there. Which is IIoA to a tee – lots of words that sum up to not a bit of game-releveant content.

I know "being conflicted" is not a useful thing.
That'swhy I posted this too:

People shouldn’t have to proactively ask about reads you do have when you have the time to make that Malkavian roleplay post. Which is why I find that whole sequence scummy. 7-8 players you are conflicted on means 13 to 12 players you do have reads on. Why didn’t you post those instead?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Desmond_13 and Nosferatu have been prodded.

It's bad that I had to look at Page 1 to actually see Desmond is a player in this game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Good lord – Lowell posted something that actively makes me Town-read his slot (842). I think this is a first someone call Guiness! I’m not necessarily sold on all his reads but this is actual activity from a man who normally just comes in to want to “Hammer newbs”.

Anyone Town-reading Nos needs to explain to me why. Especially given the state of his ISO.

ETL seems to have disappeared from the thread since dropping the Titus vote.

I very much want to see Zakk’s response to 889 because that post was very, very informative.

If she's saying that enough evidence had been given at that point for a person to reasonably vote TBG, then she doesn't have reason to scum read ETL for voting TBG. You don't need to regurgitate everyone's previously given reasons in order to vote.

This is bad. Just terrible. Of course people can be held up to scrutiny for votes with little or no reasoning. Suggesting that a lack of reasons in ETL’s personal ISO for the Brawl vote should be excused because others have listed valid reasons doesn’t make sense.

Especially in light of the circumstances where ETL was calling Titus scum. Why would Town ETL sheep her scum read Titus’s reasoning on a player?

As for your reads.
Why is Magna and KTS town? Who the dancing little nymph is Fedora Chick? Why is Zakk and Heuristic lean town? Why is Copper still scummy? Aaaaand why is Persivul scum?

This is a whole lot of questioning of reads from someone who themselves hasn’t gone out of their way to justify theirs very much …

you demand i answer your questions but you neglect to answer mine

so answer those and here are some more.

why are you talking to me about how you are going to be able to read me later?

[b/]

does it look like i care? you should be happy that you'll have more to read, but it looks like you're trying to make me feel guilty for being a "jackrabbit on meth"

you think me pushing the ircher wagon even though he thought i was town is a null tell? really?
what did you learn from that, about him, and about me? anything?

what is your opinion on pursival? on titus? on ETL? what do you think about the relationships between them?

do you think copper or ircher is scum? if so, why? if not, why not?

Suspect that you suggest I didn’t answer your question when you then directly reference my response to your question (which I bolded for ease of reference).

If you are Town you should care if you are Town read. That’s how you prevent being mislynched and help to narrow down the pool of people who are scum. I shouldn’t have to explain this to you. This post actually reads as pretty over-wrought and not genuine. Has all the flavor of “Mock Outrage with a Side of Fate-Lite”.

I’ve already stated my opinion on ETL in thread. Scummy.
I’ve states several times I think Ircher is Town.
Copper is Leaning Scum. Very much dislike his more or less sole focus on low hanging fruit.
Pers is Solid Null at this point. He’s frankly focusing on too few players to get a good handle on him.

What are your reads on Pers, Kill and ETL?

[MagnaofIllusion]

When I caught Oceanwind scum

Wait Oceanwind is a Pers alt?

Nosferatu - lean town. I disagree with Nos on Cy scumclaiming, but only through my own experience. I see where he gets it from. I like 444. I highly think Shotty just selectively responded rather than clicking on just a solitary link. I would like to hear more from Nos.

Please explain how that ISO is lean Town. There is very little content there. Literally my fact when I saw this was …

The fact that these wagons aren't getting pushed very hard is indicative of the fact that there aren't many or any scum on your or ircher's wagon.

Are you floating the concept that Ircher’s wagon was not being pushed very hard? The fact that it has gone away doesn’t mean it wasn’t strongly fueled.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, I was scum with Oceanwind and Ranger. Titus pushed Ocean D1, but I got Titus lynched instead.

Thanks, that clears that up.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, When I look for town, I look for unlikely to be scum. Townie behaviors can be faked. Having less scum motivation cannot. Sometimes, there's a rare flash that screams "this is town" but that's few and far between.

Agreed … I just have a hard time seeing lack of possible scum motivation in that Iso. Meh, not really worth debating I guess since Nos is way down the ladder on my suspects list as it stands now.

In a game in which we were both scum, she took pressure D1 and played poorly, just going after someone for suggesting a PL, and she got lynched.

I’ve also (sorta, she was in a Hydra) played with Titus as scum and she has not handled this game nearly like she did that game. The interaction with ETL have been charged enough that I feel comfortable with her as Town.

My point is people are saying the same scum on Ircher's wagon jump over to titus. I think it is much more likely that this is town jump from scum to another scum. If it were scum jumping around the wagons would have waited for town and pushed really hard. It's not that the wagons weren't fueled strongly, it's that enough of the town had other reads and scum wasn't going to start bussing yet.

I see this as perhaps an oversimplification of the realities of how a game this large plays – there is always a possibility under your circumstances Town never reads Ircher as scum and thus doesn’t show up. Also you gloss over the competing Ircher / Cy wagons. Here’s a quick refresher –

cytheflyguy (6) - zakk, Titus, projectmatt, SethYazura, heuristically_alone, Ircher
Ircher (5) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, cytheflyguy, Persivul, drmyshottyiszik

Ircher (6) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, cytheflyguy, Persivul, drmyshottyiszik, EspeciallyTheLies
cytheflyguy (5) - zakk, Titus, SethYazura, heuristically_alone, Ircher

For at least some period of the day both wagons got to more or less halfway home. Don’t you think if Ircher is scum as you think (which I disagree with) that a push would likely take place there?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Getting sick of people shying from wagons because "lol no info". That's bullshit. If someone is scum, lynch them. If not, don't. Who gives a fuck about info. We'llworry about that the next day.

Ok, now we are comparing each other to children and talking about the sizes of our dicks. Someone call me when we are playing mafia again. Yeah, fuck this. I'm gonna read later.

This is Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, what do you think of Nahdia?

I think the most polite way I can respond is to say "Not much really".

She basically posted a bunch of "Hey, here are my Ranger-lite style lists" without anything of real substance. Some of her reads I agree with. Some I think are dead wrong. But I find it hard to make much of an assessment when her response to someone asking for some depth to her reasoning is more or less "I don't have to and if you keep it up Imma gonna fight you IRL".

Plus I have like .75 games worth of experience with her that left me with little in the way of impression.

Is there some sort of rubrick key for her I should know about?

[MagnaofIllusion]

lamers and tryhards

hi manga how r u man titus is trying to set us up i think

Fine.

Now I'm guessing you are a fine young person with your own wild ideas and dreams and safe-spaces and so such. But I spend most of my patience dealing with my own daughter on the finer points of why language and communication is important tools and don't have any to spare here in Mafia-land

ok manga do u want the cold harsh truth as to why i am scumreading u?

Not really. I’m not interested in debating you on the finer points of your read which I know from my own perspective is wrong. That’s not useful as it isn’t going to sway you just as much as you aren’t going to convince me I’m scum.

My question to you is – why out of your stated scum-reads did you vote Copper who has by my last recollection exactly zero wagon? Is it you are most passionate about him as scum? Being pragmatic Ircher would be the obvious choice if you want your vote to be more impactful at this point even if I think you are wrong about him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA starting today at 5pm EDT til Tuesday morning for weekend family obligations.

So Cy seems to have dropped off the radar in curious timing with his wagon dissipating. His join date had given me pause earlier but I’m now not so sure that Newb-Town is the correct read.

Translation: I am making a readlist to show you how town I am.

Are you seriously trying to peddle that including yourself as Town in a reads list is scummy behavior?

Why? That description, I think, fits more players.

Disagree. Copper up until his recent jump back on Ircher (after I made that comment, BTW) was more of less focused on routing players to Seth. And I can’t find any evidence of a scum read from him outside of Ircher and Seth. Both of which have drawn attention today.

Who else to do think is going after low-hanging fruit exclusively?

Did you mean this: If Ircher were scum the Cy-wagon would have been pushed harder. – ?

No. I asked Shotty that specifically for a reason. I wanted to see if he would look critically at it. His response at 1051 completely ignored the implications and went off on his current multiball theory instead.

Ircher's readlist. 1065.
ETL, Zakk, Matt, TheBrawl, Heuristic, Nahdia, Lowell, Seth, Copper, Egg and Cy. I disagree with all of these. 11 players. I still don't think Ircher's scum but even if I get the reasoning behind in certain cases (ETL, Zakk, Copper, Cy) I think he missed a couple of facts.

What read do you have on Heur, Nahdia, Lowell, and Copper then? I’d like to know how you disagree with him specifically on these players.

@Shotty

– your continued stubborn read on Ircher is making me rethink my read on you. Your points basically can be expressed as “I’m going to find a reason to say everything is scummy” which is either Town confirmation bias or Scum not backing down on a mislynch attempt.

Sell me on someone as scum outside Ircher / Titus for a minute. Ok, someone besides zakk. I see your push there will look it over in due time.

My new theory is 2 scum teams. Copper and Titus/Ircher and Zakk.
VOTE: ircher these last 4 pages were awful.

You need to explain how you reached this conclusion because I’m starting to see what just looks like “fling new links together and assess the set-up based on what my current dejour reads are”. Earlier you were selling “Titus and Ircher as scum together” (591 as way of example). Now they are on opposite teams? How does that jibe with your earlier reads that were predictaed on them being teammates defending each other? I don’t see much of a train of read development coming from you.

Reads updates:
Nahdia's first posts were really good, but the whole trying to be cute and lack of any explanation on the switch to copper has me confused - lean town
The points made against KTS are valid and I don't read his tone the same as I used to. He reads to me as intentionally obstinate as a meta-gambit which is inherently null. (also AntiTown, but null)
No update on Heur. His posts since my vote don't have anything substantial in them to sway me one way or the other.

These look fabricated as hell –

No reason to say Nahdia’s posts were really good. Sorry, there isn’t. They are at best contentless lists with no way to discern the whys and wherefores of the read. There hasn’t been a bit of explanation in any of her posts so why only the move to Copper confused him puzzles the heck out of me.

The Kill read his is a complete no-read. He acknowledges that the thinks points made against kill are valid (and solidifies his Town read on Expedience for pushing Kill) but says that kill’s playstyle is aggressively null. If the points that kill as scum are good why is he landing on null for the Kill read. Or more precisely – why voice it at all when it is just a no-conclusion?

He’s voting Heur so how are Heur’s posts not “swaying him”? He’s already gotten a scum read as evidenced by his vote. If Heurs’ posts were not Town convincing he logically should have said something like “Heur continues to post nothing Town oriented at all so my scum read is well placed”. But instead he posts this which reads as “I’m not updating my read so I am waiting to be swayed by Heur to either Town or Scum”

Happy with my vote.

Shotty is a scumread and bussing. I'm not going to interrupt that to pointlessly say they're both scum again. Shotty voting Zakk helps town's wincon

. I cannot highlight every single scummy thing y'all do.

It would drown the fuck out of town. I've made that mistake before. My job now is to coordinate the rest of the town to get you people lynched.

Shotty's voting you, not Zakk. Regardless of the fact that the bold is iffy logic, not highlighting a major scummy thing that one of your supposed scumreads is not Town behavior at all. This whole post reeks of an excuse for getting called out on inconsistently applied logic.

This is a pretty blatant mis-rep. Titus clearly didn’t say “I’m not posting this major scum-post made” yet Brawl jumps to assert that it was a major point. Scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 32:
Magna, you said you are townreading Ircher because his wagon hasn't faded. Who on the wagon do you think is scum? I expect more than one name if that's a reason to town read him.

Um that’s not an accurate assessment. At that point I was Town-reading Ircher and the persistence of the wagon (which formed for stupid, stupid reasons at best) reinforced my read.

That said here’s more or less the meat of the Icher wagon …

Ircher (5) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, cytheflyguy, Persivul, drmyshottyiszik

Ircher (6) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, cytheflyguy, Persivul, drmyshottyiszik, EspeciallyTheLies

Ircher (5) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, cytheflyguy, Persivul, drmyshottyiszik

Brawl obviously is a clear scum read for me. Outside of that I only see Egg as solid Town in the rest. Not sure if a 5-6 person wagon necessarily has to have multiple scum on it but I’d not be surprised given my Null to leaning scum range of reads on the remaining voters.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It looks like hydraing with Fate has rubbed off his worst qualities onto Nahdia …

t's ridiculous to put yourself in a read list, so what's your motivation for doing so?

Speaking of peddling, explain to me again how I'm interacting only with LHF's and why you think that would be scummy?

Yeah it is ridiculous. Doesn’t make it scummy at all and the fact you tried to float it as such is scummy.

Are you seriously asking why I think an experienced player choosing to basically focus on a couple what I view as potentially easy lynches (Ircher due to pressure through the day and Seth based on his join date)? I mean you but up a lot of questions to people – myself, Egg, Expedience – but those questions seem to lead no-where. I don’t see any development.

Hell as far as I can see on a quick review of your ISO your reads are Ircher and Seth scum and Titus Town. Maybe Nosferatu but you stopped that early pressure and have never returned to him.

Heuristic, Seth, Zakk, Brawl, Cy, Nahdia.
As far as I remember all of these have performed at least one lazy-vote on wagons with momentum. I'm not saying all of them are essentially scum because of this or all of the wagons have been bad, but the description fits them.

So your pool of players you accuse of going after low-hanging fruit is Heur, Seth and Cy (who are low hanging fruit themselves so that accusation really doesn’t apply since it only is useful in reading well seasoned players). Hell looking at Nahdia’s join date I’d likely throw her in that pool as well.

So that leaves Zakk. His join date makes it a valid tell to use on him. Do you scum read Zakk for it then?

What do you think of TheBrawl's Multiball question?

I think given the whole conversation around my read on ETL for no looking up Normal standards that the process by which he asked the question and then looked for himself look calculated as opposed to natural.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA,

I’ve got around 9 pages to catch up on. Probably will do it in 4 to 5 pages bursts.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 48 – 49

(this is going to take more posts than originally thought)

@Heur

– have you posted a read on Brawl? I’m catching up so I don’t want to break for an ISO so far but if you haven’t you need to make a call on Brawl’s alignment.

Why the hell would I comment on my own wagon? FMPoV, it's a wagon on town. I'd rather discuss wagons on potential Scum. If I get you off of me, but you just ML someone else, I don't gain anything.

This is posted from the perspective of someone who doesn’t think scum could be voting him. Because a significant wagon on Town just might be a solid place to look for scum. Yet he dismisses that right out of hand.

Still happy with my vote.

Bullshit, in many cases it's scum trying to behave like town and failing, in this instance it turns out to be quirk of how Ircher plays.

I’ll be waiting for the many examples from you that support your supposition.

Also – I’ll have to dig but I’m half remembering that someone else in this thread put themselves in as a Town in some sort of reads list and don’t recall you batting an eye at it. Maybe I’m mis-remembering another game. I’ll look once I am caught up this week.

Do you think my time would be better spent going after untouchables or incredibly hard to read players? You are not going to lynch don Corleone on D1 but you might screw him if you find the weak link and that's why more of my pressure has been on newer players that I find scummy.

If you are Town? Absolutely. There is no such thing as an untouchable player. You see scum you go after it regardless of reputation. You on the other hand are happy to avoid the ‘hard targets’ to instead hunt among new players who don’t have any more likelihood of drawing scum as anyone else.

And I know that the unspoken factor as to why you might go this route certainly does not apply to you.

I haven't however touched cyto. so LHF is not the determinant, your problem here is that you are accusing me of going after LHF when some LHF are a subset of potentially scum and the intersection is the perfect place to scumhunt D1.

Um whut? That you avoided one person who is low hanging fruit that means you are excused from the accusation? And your supposition that Low Hanging Fruit are a great place to scum-hunt Day 1 is bad given the realities of scum-Town make-up in games. Low Hanging Fruit are more likely to be Town as a whole than scum and are much more prone to being mislynched if Town.

I need to read over your ISO in World of Gumball to see how well it comports with this claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 50 – 52

Oh look – Brawl readily jumps at the chance to wagon anyone as an alternate to himself at 1285. Not surprising.

Off the top of my head, the read walls as she was catching up. I don't really see a scum motive for that, when she's very clearly not playing for townpoints in every other post. The fact that they hardly changed is indicative of a real reads list to me, as I think she if she were faking it, she would have been more apt to change her "reads" more.

@Projectmatt

– I’d love to hear you response to this comment. I really would.

Magna posting the Ircher wagon makes me even more sure Ircher is scum. I'm townreading the entire wagon from it's height except Cy. Cy's wagon on the other hand has Seth, heur, and Ircher as vote 3-5 at that point. Ew.

To be clear – you are Townreading both Brawl and Shotty? (or were back then?)

The fact that he decided to look up whether it's considered normal to have two scum teams shows that he doesn't have inside knowledge on whether we're dealing with that or not.

Um Egg I think you are solid Town but this is terrible, terrible logic. He can easily ‘pretend’ to be doing that as scum, especially after the mini-back and forth ETL and I had on looking up Normal standards in an attempt to mine Town cred.

What's hypocritical about #1178? It looks pretty solid to me.

I also now see your reasons for disliking #1178 after looking again, but I don't find them particularly solid.

Three whole minutes to back away from his twice strongly stated Brawl Town read. Brawl flips scum and Matt should be first up against the wall following him.

I have a town read on every player on the Aneninen wagon so if I don't come up with anything better after reviewing tomorrow this is where I'll vote.

Aneninen (3) - Nahdia, Lowell, projectmatt

So you Town read Nahdia, Lowell and Matt?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Page 53 – My first catch-up

I still don't properly understand what MoI was saying before though, his posts are too thoughtful about small things.

If you want clarification on something please drop a post number.

If I am it's pretty old.

So you don’t know where you vote was? And why did it take actual prompting from Titus to actually move

also anen is scum. he slipped but I'm mobile so find it yourself.

Very much interested in what ELT has found slip-wise (or thinks she has found).

Further for someone that he is investigating as scum he made quite a few inaccurate statements about what I posted (re. Nosferatu and Egg), and if he really felt genuine about the points he is making I would expect a vote on me and trying to rally support, cause I would expect that would be a strong indication of me being scum in his mind, instead as I said at the time this looks more like a smear campaign (if he is scum and I was pushing a buddy of his) or probing (if I'm on the wrong track and he thinks he might be able to lynch me after a few flips).

Do you think that you should not be able to scum-hunt multiple players at a time? You seem to be angling that if I am not voting you and shouting for your lynch over my other scum reads that it is a “smear campaign”. That makes no sense at all to suggest I can’t have a scum-read on multiple players and investigating such while keeping my vote on my strongest scum-read and that I do so I’m simply looking to “smear” you (and by inference, any player I am not currently voting who I am scum-hunting).

VOTE: egg
Pretty sre of this

@egg why ignore my vote?

Why exactly should Egg be worried about a Naked Vote from you again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Given the above I find it hard to swallow that your accusation that being a LHF is a determinant for me going after a certain player comes from magma_town.

Being an LHF and being scummy is a determinant for how much pressure I will put on you, that's true and I already explained why that makes sense.

I strongly disagree that LHF is alignment indicative, if you consider anecdotal evidence proof (which is a fallacy) it is actually scum indicative in my games sample size.

You are spinning this in a way that either comes from scum OMGUSing getting called out or complete lack of understanding of my point.

I don’t care what assessment you make on LHF’s as to why you focusing intently on them is scummy. I care that you focus on mostly to the exclusion of other players. As I’ve already stated not pressuring experienced players just because they are experienced is scummy in my mind, especially coming from an experienced player. You’ve brought up a Town-read on Egg as counter-evidence but that supports my point. You only are interested in me at all because I’m questioning your play.

What point are you making about LHF being alignment indicative? Of course it isn’t. If you think I’ve said that you are either misreading or purposefully trying to frame my argument in a negative light. But the relative low number of them (as you evidenced above) in this game means it is entirely possible that none of them are scum. Which is why I find your focus there suspect .

How do you know what my state of mind is while doing something? That sounds like narrative peddling from scum, if you think I'm scum based on my play don't introduce elements like how happy or sad I am about doing something as those are unverifiable by definition.

So you are going to hide behind a semantics argument (word choice isn’t proper) and some buzz-word terminology to suggest that the point is invalid?

The rest is nicely worded but and idealistic if true but not the way to go. In Shaman, a game Egg was in, Brian skies knew I was scum from the middle of D2, he wasted his time arguing with me which resulted in most of the rest of town calling it a TvT and helped me cover for my other teammate TTH (whom Brian also had a scumread on, in fact he decided I had to be her teammate because I was sabotaging his push on her, which was true). If he had gone about it in the proper order, first gain support to lynch TTH, and only then, once you have shown the rest of town that they can trust your reads tackle copper, he would have likely won the game, as is he lost despite his good reads.

Anecdotal evidence from a single game isn’t really relevant to this game. Should I find counter-examples where strong Mafia suspects getting suspected and lynched / Vigged breaks the game open for Town as a counter?

Yes, I am being a smart-ass with that last line but my point is absolutely correct.

Anecdotal evidence is once again not proof

(at most it may show why I may be biased and call it a tell when it may be null and in that case wgeurts did it as newbie scum in the first game he played on site, off the top of my head), given the opposition and the remarks that some players do it as a quirk I've read I may have to can the tell in the future though.

If you your bolded stance is true why bother to use it above?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, yes I've townread drmy and Brawl all game. My read on drmy has weakened somewhat and my townread on Brawl has strengthened, but they've both been town reads all game. Can you quote the back and forth between you and ETL or at least tell me where it was? I don't remember it and scum don't usually think to fake things like that. It's not like it's the basis of my read anymore or anything but it would be nice to know the full context of it if I've missed something.

It starts at 464 where ETL started her “Titus is coaching Ircher” with the assumption scum don’t have daytalk.

My response to this is at 594. I had reservations about ETL not bothering to look up the Normal standards for Daytalk in relation to the Titus coaching attack.

ETL responds at 605 with the excuse she doesn’t play normal. I respond at 608 basically saying that she’s experienced enough to have done the legwork and should have known the coaching attack required game circumstances she shouldn’t be able to know as Town.

So I suspected ETL for that jump. Brawl then floated the “Multiball isn’t Normal is it” and then did precisely what I said someone experienced should be doing.

Draw your own conclusions. Given I’ve been scum-reading Brawl for a significant part of the day it stood out to me.

Looks like you are catching up so I assume you will come across the quote I made later on, but it turned out to be a misunderstanding of language.

I’ve now had time to review your ISO. If you thought that was a slip why didn’t you vote when you posted your thoughts?

I don't know if it's larges in general or this game in particular, but no wagon has come close yet to actually putting pressure on someone, so my vote didn't concern me that much. In minis or micros I usually make sure to have it where I want it.

So wait … it’s a Large game where more votes are required to get strong wagons going. And you’ve parked your wagon much of the day because “no good wagons are forming”?

[MagnaofIllusion]

You honestly wanna know the truth?

I was pooping.

And then I went to bed cuz I was exhausted. By the time I'd gotten back to the thread Titus and Anen had discussed it and I realized I misread it, so I didn't bother.

Ok - game aside I so want to sig the bolded because you gave me the first out-loud laugh in a long time with that ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Aside from RVS, I voted you in 283, ircher in 491, Titus in 792, and ETL in 1326.

You voted brawl in 232, KTS in 596, then back to brawl in 797.

So if you think vote parking is bad, look in the mirror.

Um I have my vote placed on a scum suspect and know where it was the whole time. You just said your vote isn't important and had it parked on someone without apparently knowing it was there or even scum-reading said player for a signficant amount of time. Two absolutely separate circumstances.

Your stance is questionable and your attempt to play the deflect game upon being called on it is scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So vote me.

Town!magna would vote me as a scum read.

Scum!magna, not so much. The hood is now known and the idea (which I agree with) that it probably contains 1 scum is out there. Liger is being town read. So, killing me would tkae it down to you and copper.

Your wagon becomes more viable than Brawl's? In a heartbeat.

Likewise you aren't voting me as Town!Pers would be voting me since I am scum pushing on him while scum!Pers not so much as it narrows it down to himself and Copper. /sarcasm

Your post is just setting up a no-win situation - if I don't jump off Brawl I'm scum afraid to narrow down the Neighborhood and if I do I'm just caving to pressure and scum for it. Scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's only no-win if I'm town, and you seem to know I'm town.

If I'm scum and you lynch me, that's a scum down and the three other neighbors looking very townie. How is that not a win?

Um, whut? Lol. The point is as scum you are staging it to be a scummy reaction no matter how I react.

Of course lynching you as scum is good. You keep dodging the point that I'm not about to abandon the stronger wagon on my scum suspect for a currently non-viable one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Titus

- would you be open to swinging to Pers instead?

[MagnaofIllusion]

>pushed him over the edge
>has literally never indicated suspicion of me

a+ job on the lazy scumwagon

Don’t really buy the “Oh, it didn’t show up in my search”. Game isn’t long enough that you can’t scan through the whole ISO.

So Seth, Titus and Copper are now scum on your wagon. That’s a pretty high concentration given you maybe have 7 to 8 votes.

I also thought there was likely 1 scum in the hood and that's why I asked Seth which of those three was his teammate (I thought he was very likely scum and showing him I also had another name in my list would smash his confidence even more).

Why did you leave the escape hatch in that initial post?

@Seth
Alternatively you can tell me which one,

if any

, of {Robert, I am Innocent, Magma} is also scum.

I’m curious to see because you preemptively gave him an out to say no-one in the question as you phrased it.

Also – did it shake him as you expected it too? If so point to the post / posts that show that please.

@Magma
It doesn't make sense to me to focus mostly on player a) but vote player b).

Where did I say that was required at all? You can focus on multiple players at a time in Mafia. Heck in a Large it is pretty much mandatory.

how many scum are we looking for realistically? max of 6 I would think? allows for 2 teams of 3 or maybe one team of 5. that's what I'm thinking.

6 would require Town to be loaded for bear on PRs. Not out of the question but something that will have to be assessed as claims and flips occur. The existence of a 4 person Neighborhood has me leaning initially to 5.

egg in the scum pile.

Please explain because I can’t understand that at all – he’s one of my strongest Townreads.

Getting my footing in this game is troubling, though I am reading Titus and EspeciallyTheLies as town right now.
I have no idea on my neighborhood buddies.

Zakk I don't like his reasoning on his pushes on players, but I am midlly townreading him.
Persivul and Magna I am unsure of, if one is scum I think its more likely Persivul, but that has no basis than just the general vibe of the posts.

So no read on Copper our other Neighborhood member?

On a side note –

magna reminds me of Thor with all his annoying questions. still not alignment indicative.

Thor will be greatly insulted if he sees this …

[MagnaofIllusion]

My initial thought, and supported by the wiki, was that there was likely a scum in the hood. My plan was to observe the other participants without interacting with them much and decide which was most likely to be scum. I didn't want them to be on guard with me in the hood. Then, in the hood thread, talk about other people and form some associatives.

And this is why you are scum. There’s been a reason I’ve been pressing Copper so hard – the quicker I can sort whether he is scum before the hood opens the better off it is for my ability to parse his neighborhood activity and reads. Same reason I've been questioning you also. And your "Not interacting with the other members" doesn't hold up to scrutiny given your early vote for me re: Lowell's early push.

You specifically going out of your way to not directly interact with the other neighborhood members so they wouldn’t be suspicion of you makes little sense. Possible scum in the neighborhood should have been obvious to you as Town the minute you got your role PM. It was obvious to me and pretty clearly it was obvious to Copper based on his early question to Seth.

Yet you are staging it as some big surprise to the Neighborhood members. It makes sense as a quickly crafted “Oh Shit” excuse when Liger outed the Neighborhood and you had to account for your play not following a Town thought process.

VOTE: Persival

Wagon is go!

[MagnaofIllusion]

LAMISTy

Can you explain this short-hand? I've seen it several times from you and can't parse it to save my life.

Look at me I'm saving Town?

[MagnaofIllusion]

The part you're missing is that your pressure on Copper is likely to affect his neighborhood activity and reads.

Someone who thinks they're being scum read might simply minimize hood activity in order to avoid giving associatives.

OTOH, someone who thinks they're safe with the neighbors is more likely to open up and give more information. So, it's better to sort the person through their interaction with other people, rather than pressing them yourself.

I like how you cropped your response to weed out the pesky part where I laid out why it made no sense for any of the Neighbors to be immediately at ease with the rest and thus renders this response moot.

And the bolded, which you are floating as what scum would do, is exactly what you've done most of the day ... minimize your interactions to miminize associations.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Egg

– you have a chance to read that exchange that you asked me to remind you of.

Yeah, I’m increasing wary of the narrative that the must be one and only one Scum member in the Neighborhood. Especially in light of all the Multiball speculation being thrown around. Why is it not possible for the 4 of us to contain a Mafia and a Serial Killer or 2 Mafia from possible different factions?

I need to correlate who has been floating Multiball speculation but is thinking that only 1 scum might be in the Neighborhood.

Magna vs Persivul is clearly town vs town. They aren't afraid of being in a smaller scum pool. So it looks like if there is exactly one scum neighbor, it's Copper.

In light of what I just wrote above … does that change your mind at all?

If his personality was of the type that instinctively defends his teammates and he quickly replied nobody, that would have been a nice little scum slip (how is seth_town supposed to know there are none?), so I was happy to give him that out (quickly answering nobody not only would have confirmed him as scum, it would have strongly indicated there was at least one there).

It did not appear to faze in him at all.

Ok. Did you form enough of a personality read to make an assessment of what that reaction meant before he replaced out? Clearly I thought the question was suspect when you asked it given Robert had not even posted and IAI was basically a ghost … I didn’t think you could possibly get any meaning ful reaction with those facts in play.

Egg read is totally gut. I can't place my finger on it but the ISO feels really off. A lot of the "discussion" comes across as forced and LAMISTy, and definitely "peace-maker"-y, which rubs me the wrong way as I don't really see town functioning that way so early on.

Ok. I personally don’t get twigged on his posts as being forced or LAMISTY but that in and of itself isn’t something that has ever been a big scum signal for me.

Thanks for the link – that term must have become part of the lexicon after my first tour of duty.

Does he not like you? The both of you are very similar in play-style to me. Also I ♥ Thor

I think the term that might best describe Thor and my old relationship is “A Mix of Grudging Respect and Annoyance”. In the old days we used to get into it strongly based on strength of personality. I think time has mellowed us both.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm looking forward to the results of this. If you'd like, I could help in the task as well. That does seem like a harder task to accomplish but very worthwhile.

Actually that would be helpful ... if only collating the active Multiball theory espousing players.

Seth's slot I would count. And I know Shotty floated it. It is going to take some time to ISO everyone and search for multiball / multi.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll take the top half and search multiball, you take the bottom half?

Sure. May not get to it until tomorrow.

copper/liger - one of these is scum

@copper:

but if pers is town is town then I feel even more confident in ETL scum

This is why I'm cool with a lynch. I think there are clear associatives to be drawn.

Wait. So you are saying you are Town and cool with being lynched for associatives. And relaying this to Copper who has (I don’t recall a read from you on his slot recently) a 50/50 shot at being scum?

@Titus
1/4 makes sense for a lot of reasons design-wise but those are not the odds of hitting scum.

In Gumball someone was quoting a TTH game where Kagami played well by recognizing the whole neighborhood was town, I'll have to check if cakez was part of that one when not on the phone.

Um wasn’t the Firebringer who was the Neighborizor in that game scum?

Magna do you still think this applies? What are your current feelings about KTS?

Yes. I do. And I’m so damn tired of people giving him and his herp a derp posting a pass for “tone”.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@magna - If there's multiple teams, then perhaps the idea of more than 1 anti-town member of the hood is possible but I think that's more of an outside theory at this point, since we don't have any indication one way or the other, but even that scenario means there is at least one anti-town in the hood. considering the existence of at least one is reasonable at the moment and something we can work on deducing.

Agreed but I absolutely do not want a single scum flip from the Neighborhood to make people go “Whelp, X confirmed Town now” where X is the number of other living players from the neighborhood. That’s the kind of lazy thinking and assumption that loses games for Town.

And honestly, rereading your ISO kind of makes me mad about the whole "Titus coaching Ircher" thing because first of all, it absolutely read as coaching, and absolutely coaching happens in games where scum do not have daytalk. My thinking on it went like this: "Why is she telling him what to do? Do they have some kind of outside connection? If they are scum together, it could be coaching, which means scum probably don't have daytalk." I voiced my opinions, mentioned that it depended on the existence or lack of daytalk, and also that it changed my read on Ircher if Titus was scum. So I voted Titus and people went all "BLEEEEH WHY YOU VOTE TITUS AND NOT IRCHER" which still makes no fucking sense to me since ircher's alignment in that scenario depended on Titus being scum which would give credence to the coaching issue in the first place. I do not understand why anyone had such a hard time following that line of thinking. Whether a person agrees or not is one thing but to be all "that means you're scum because I disagree with your conclusions" that's so dumb to me.

Well I can try help you with your feelings. My opinion of the interaction comes from a completely different point of view. I’m Town reading Ircher and soft Town reading Titus at that stage. I see you posting that Titus is coaching Ircher which requires several leaps that were not knowable at that stage – specifically whether scum has Daytalk or not and a lack of an Ircher scum read. In fact you had him as Newbtown at 324. To my mind you were making non-supportable assumptions and trying to scum-read players for reasons that didn’t make sense to me - especially Ircher.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is not true. I did have enough data, in that the conversation was in the damn thread. But to ask me if I thought Titus was bussing TBG, and I said - I don't have enough data - there've been no flips or nothing, and I didn't see any connection between them in the conversations/posts, so why the hell would this apply to my conclusion about Titus/Ircher in any way!!? It didn't and it doesn't. Apples and oranges, man. The Titus/Ircher thing was in plain sight, in words, with very clear meaning. My impression was that it looked like coaching. YOu can't make the same conclusions about TBG/Titus at all, they don't have the same interactions, and I didn't, and still don't think TBG is scum really. I was kidna waffly about him but I honestly don't get the case on him (I didn't see a single one really, but I'm not done re-reading). Also my scumreads are mostly independent of each other on D1 unless there's an obvious link like the one I felt I saw between Titus/Ircher. I try not to make associations before a scum flip because that has only ever led me to disaster in the past.

That conversation isn't evidence as far as I am concerned. You may be passionate about it but that passion isn't hitting my gut ... I just don't see it such. Again we have a different base of experiences - I can't recall ever seeing coaching as you are preaching it to me in any game I can ever recall. Yes ... I understand where you are coming from.

I'm going to have to look at wagon movements regarding TBG. He's such an entrenched scum-read in my mind I don't see his wagon as similar to the Ircher wagon. But I also have to admit I may be confirm-baised on that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I agree that would be a dumb thing to do. Buuuuuuuut.... once we know whether or not it's multiball, better assumptions can be made about the neighborhood, do you agree?

Yes, I agree. I get paranoid about clearing players not on play but on Outguess the Mod assumptions.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree, mostly because I find that I care less about how people read me when I'm town than when I'm scum, because as town, I'm more focused on figuring out what's going on and as scum I'm more focused on manipulating the game. I think I get more upset whgen scumread as town, but in terms of actually caring, much less as town.

I mean, obviously I understand that being able to find town reads and work WITH them is far more viable a strategy, but being townread really isn't the main focus and shouldn't be the main focus of town. if you're doing the right things and your teammates are competent, then it should work itself out. town have to keep doing what they need to do and hope their team recognizes it. the problem happens when competence is severely missing.

I have things to say on this issue but they will have to wait .... for a time somewhere in the future.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@zakk: OMG, you're going to one of my newbie games from a year ago and saying that's my definitive town meta.

Are you scum, or just a fucking idiot?

If you were really trying to dispute this you’d have brought up the much better point that the first link isn’t even to a game but to GTKAS for Zakk himself. That’s what someone who actually was criticially assessing zakk’s post would do. Because it is garbage to say “This is Town Pers” and to link to non-game thread.

But you just try to laugh it off as if meta from a year ago somehow isn’t valid. People are bringing up meta for me from 5 to 6 years ago on a regular basis.

Btw my egg vote was purely to test reactions and opportunism
VOTE: Zack

Then why don’t you share what your reaction test provided you with vis-a-vie reads.

bodies on top of bodies

oh man all hell broke loose, you killed my cousin back in 94', fuc yo truce

If this doesn’t get Vigged there is no justice in this world. I’ll even take a Serial Killer trying to frame his shots to pretend to be a Vig.

still here, kinda prodge, but I'll read up

Or this …

The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.

Hello Pers’s scum-buddy.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

A combination of scum and stupid Town. Why the fake outrage of an obvious answer?

It's bad logic. I actually think his logic is very silly, and I generally find unwavering confidence in reads to be a bad thing. That said though, I'm not looking up to TehBrawlGuy as the pinnacle of good logic/agreement. I also don't think bad logic is inherently scum.

Glad you answered this. Soon enough I’ll know whether this is scum Matt talking for sure or not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

With that stirring reasoning and well couched argument?

No.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not today Nahdia.

SHOTTY

– since you have time for this crap why are you not answering my question in 1800?

[MagnaofIllusion]

well egg didn't really react at all, so it's hard to get anything from said reaction test

Scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

He's basically Chesskid all over again ... or Crypto.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA starting today at 5pm EDT until June 11th. I’ll be out of the country with limited access … how often I can check will be determined when I get there.

Am I wrong? Did I miss the reaction? Why am I scum for this?

I already was finding your play scummy Shotty. You don’t seem actually interested in finding scum more in flitting to whatever situation is the current haps and making a trend scum assessment. The Egg post at a gut level strikes me as just that – Egg was for the first time getting some flack from players. You coast in and drop a naked vote. When answering about it you claim it was a reaction test.

But that doesn’t make sense if Egg’s ignoring of your singleton empty vote leaves you with no actual read to be drawn from it. Because that’s what I would have done in his boot – paid no attention to it. But this logical course of action by Egg gives you no read whatsoever. Almost as if it wasn’t an actual reaction test in the first place and you just fabricated that reasoning when questioned.

Which is exactly what I think you did and that’s scum behavior not Town behavior.

Additionally this is the sort of reaction I expect from Scum Shotty.

that's kind of shitty. If I'm not posting, any post I make is out of nowhere. Explain why finally posting in thread with a proper relevant opinion is "a clear agenda"?

No what’s shitty is not really posting in thread and then popping in with a pic reaction which wasn’t valid in the first place as Titus and others have pointed out and projecting some outrage when you are called on it.

LHF: Low hanging fruit, someone that looks scummy so you want to pick him (i.e. lynch him).

I’d say LHF should be defined as a relatively new account (and very likely unseasoned) that is possibly going to draw attention for possible lack of understanding of some aspects of site meta and for a general lack of reputation among other MS players.

You missed the big picture again - why would scum!pers choose to go up against town!Titus on D1? It makes absolutely no sense. You waved it off as wifom, which can be applied to 90% of this game.

See you keep going at this point again and again and I’ll point to your early encouraging of ETL and Titus being at odds as scum!Pers motivation. I’m currently Town to Townish reading both. You threw shade at their early interactions that looked like they were willing to work together. Strong Town players working together is a bad, bad thing for scum. And when they started to conflict you worked to drive the wedge in deeper to keep them on opposite sides of the fence, as it were.

But you seem to want to ignore that part of the gain and focus on the more recent events where you’ve been under fire and are trying to frame calling Titus scum at that juncture as the only place where motivation can be found.

Happy with my vote.

Persivul, there's a trend towards stacking neighbors with additional PRs.

Yeah but in a Normal game I guessing the only additional abilities the Neighborhood will be stacked with are Factional. So making him claim he doesn’t have others is a pointless exercise to my thoughts.

Ugh, I am a bit mixed on him.
Like I read his case on Persivul, it seemed reasonable, but that doesn't mean scum can't make a good case?
I might just not want to be lynch Persivul cause he is in my neighborhood.

I do say Zakk has good points. I just can't pinpoint why I think he is scum, even though some of his content is screaming town.

To many cases of him / his in this post. I can’t tell who you are mixed on (think it is Kill but not sure), whose case on Pers you like (is it Zakk?)

Either use quotes to add context to your posts or stop using pronouns. May feel awkward but it is very important to others being able to read and assess your slot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Finally made it back in the country. Have been traveling for 36 hours with little sleep. Going to bed now. Will have content tonight or Monday.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, back in the saddle …

I’ve been reading along (as well as can be done) on my phone. I’ll be re-reading from the start of Day 2 and commenting over the next few days. But first thing’s first – my recap of the Night discussion in the Neighborhood QT which I’ve seen several requests for.

Copper opens saying the big question is if Titus is scum or not and suggesting he didn’t want to bother wasting time on paranoia regarding if anyone in the QT was scum or not. He wanted to come to a concensus on who to attack today and get reads that way.

Liger says he didn’t read Titus or either of us as scum. He also suggests there is a second Neighhborhood because someone mentioned it but due to my crap connection I didn’t get to ask him about that. Liger also shared some secondary information that isn’t worth mentioning directly at this point.

Copper says he would have pushed the counterwagon on KTS if Nahdia hadn’t lol hammered despite the fact that he thought the KTS lynch was BS due to Kill being a troll. Says Nahdia may be scum and Nos is almost too scummy to be scum but that Nos is still super suspicious. Calls Seth / Kop likely scum. Lastly says ETL is possibly scum for her reaction to Copper calling out her play and that something is off about Expedience.

Liger says he has similar thoughts about Expedience but it may be playstyle and has a soft-Town read on ETL.

I post that I don’t think either Titus or Expedience is scum. I have concerns about what I perceive to be possible buddying from ETL to me at the end of day that is ringing my gut alarm. I say Kill needs vigged as he purposefully plays to be unreadable regardless of alignment. I say Brawl and Shotty are scum and Kop maybe but that I think Seth is a Kill style Troll. Finally I am thinking of retracting my solid Town read on Egg due to his end of day posts which were all “too many page” prod dodging.

Copper suggests Brawl WKing his Counterwagon (Copper claims to be Pers) is a stretch.

--

If there is scum in the Neighborhood it is Copper. I’ll revisit his posting but to my recollection his play Day 2 has not lined up very closely with his claimed stances in the QT. His vote analysis posting as others have pointed out isn’t analysis but junk.

Liger is Town. Not changing this read.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Now my interpretation may be junk, although since you're all so firm in the belief that it's junk when you supposedly wouldn't know anything about it as town it's probably spot on.

No, it's junk because the premise itself is faulty and garbage. Garbage in, garbage out. Feel free to keep lobbing empty assertions to support your junk but that in a nutshell is the story.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So clearly we are in multiball. With three VT flips no chance of a PGO or some other odd circumstance that could justify a single anti-Town team. Which leads to …

Shotty as scum –

Well looks like some vigs cleared a few things up for us.

Remember when Shotty Day 1 was calling it multiball? Let me refresh your memory.

185 (ok, this is page 4 which in hindsight screams inside info subconscious slip), 1051 –

Yet right out of the gate Day 2 he’s trying to suggest multiple Vigs are responsible for the extra kills. Dollars to donuts that whichever “Non Mafia” shot he is trying to pass off as a Vig had him or his scum team in their end of Day reads.

He’s also dropped both of my meta-read tells for scum Shotty. I’m not elaborating at this point but can if it really becomes necessary.

Magma had a bad connection in the PT but for someone who claimed he wanted to vet me to see if we could make something out of being neighbors he did not even ask me one question, he also had TBG as strong scum and he did not reply when I asked him why he thought so given that would imply TBG WKd his CW (could still be because of the connection but I still want an answer).

Yeah … this is bad. The two posts I made in the QT took almost a full hour due to my connection. Which clearly I pointed out in the thread. Why exactly did you expect an in-depth questioning when I couldn’t even get the ISO feature to work?

That said – let’s talk about Brawl and Persival re: a Counterwagon – why do you not think it possible for scum to call a wagon not on themselves bad again? Because I think someone as experienced as you shouldn’t be so rigid in assessing that as not a possibility. By the time Brawl commented on Pers (1734) clearly Pers was the dominant wagon. And multiple people had been calling down the Brawl wagon pretty vigorously for awhile. Very little change there was going to be enough momentum to lynch Brawl Day 1. Perfect time for scumBrawl to look for Town credit by calling the Pers wagon bad.

Glad you state that ETL was a scum shot. Probably has to do with 2137, huh?

VOTE: Copper

Also I don’t think Matt is scum. Much of it was dependant on Pers flipping scum which didn’t happen.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ircher is still Town. Posts like 2356 show why.

The hypothesis being: it's unnatural so maybe you didn't get to coordinate the read switch like the rest of your team cause you were V/LA.

Scum still forgetting that he shouldn’t know that daytalk exists … which would be a requirement of this sort of coordination. Especially since he knows the Neighborhood only has nighttalk.

But given he specifically excluded himself from 2518 let’s look at his vote history Day 1 in conjunction with his ‘analysis’ –

Ircher – Bad Town per his analysis
Nos -
Seth – oops Kop is nowhere to be found in his “analysis”
Ircher - Bad Town per his analysis
Brawl - Town
Magna
Anen – “town getting pushed by scum”
Brawl - Town
Pers - Town
Kill – Town

So all but two of his own votes are all on Town, bad Town, or players with no analysis. And all the “damning” votes I made are votes he made also.

Scum. Lynch it.

*checks in*
so zakk and titus and copper all still breathing?
ok.
*checks out*

Notice that Copper is included in this list. Then ISO him and find his votes or pushes for Copper. Hint – you will be looking for a long, long time.

@shaz, eh I've seen shotty so much worse. Other than the lingering thought that maybe we're being played with the whole shotty/irch double-tunneling thing, I don't really see too much scum here lately.

Umm given Inspirational Mafia I am having some serious trouble with this statement …

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI, I'm just town. Multiball just seemed obvious with the way people were playing. Also if I were scum, how would I know it was multiball day one?

No, you aren't. If people insist I'll link to the Inspirational Mafia tells I used to nail you there and the parallels here.

And LOL at your "I would not know it is multiball as scum". Scum are in the best position to know that early day 1 since they know that either

A. Their scum-team is undersized for the set-up, or
B. They are a Serial Killer

[MagnaofIllusion]

Titus is on point at 2546 especially given Shotty said “I’ll vote whichever wagon is bigger”.

Copper’s 2578 is classic scum play. He’s talked about scum taking advantage of Titus and yet he was positioned on Lowell in that exact manner – happy to call Lowell Town for voting me (which clearly ignores that we are in a Multiball environment) but the second Lowell looks halfway askance at Copper we get that post.

I find the strength of the tunnel genuine. Once you flip, if you are town, how is shotty planning to stay alive to win? Do you think you are worth a trade?

Note the defense of Shotty and note that Shotty’s Ircher scum read magically disappeared overnight until he had to OMGUS at 2532. As if, perhaps, they were prompted in the QT to drop it since it was drawing too much attention.

Also, is the Zakk wagon just dying? If so, I don't want to push Nos just yet, but I don't know that PM is super scummy either. Shotty might be the best target in my mind. Thoughts?

Shotty is a very good wagon.

Magna, yeah if there are two scum teams I could see one from each being in the neighborhood. However, it was Day 1 so I was ignoring that possibility in order to vote the scummiest person possible (I should add that I think we obviously failed at that). Looking at last night's kills, I don't suspect multiple scum teams yet. It's possible of course, but my guess is scum killed ETL and the other two kills were a vig and a SK trying to look like a vig. It's entirely possible that killthestory or Brawl was one scum team trying to kill the other but until we get a scum flip with some kind of faction name or something, I'll work with the assumption that we only have one scum team to deal with. Because of that, I'm not even close to assuming more than one scum in the neighborhood. I'm currently thinking 0-1

My question here Egg – why would you not consider a Serial Killer as being a Neighborhood possibility?

Page 77:
Magna, you said you don't buy drmy's vote on me as a reaction test and conclude that he made the vote as scum. So I have to ask. If he's scum, what was the purpose of him voting me?

Frankly I don’t know. Shotty’s playing to his scum meta solidly and the lack of any actual Town reasoning to support why It was actually a reaction test is what leads me to my conclusion.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna
What's your opinion of Seth/Kop?

Seth was a troll. His repeated bans for in-game behavior established that in my mind. Impossible to read.

Kop -His content since replacing in has been poor. And the latest round of posts with that terrible vote I can see coming from scum. He's not a top read for me. I'd probably need to re-ISO them (well, more Kop given my stance on Seth) before committing away from Copper / Shotty.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, I asked you a question, need it repeated?

Either that or link me to it. I don't see anything in your ISO with Magna or MoI in it that looks like a question at first glance ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wow. Want to know how tired I am? I asked Lowell a question and thought I was quoting you. I may as well ask you too though, do you think a Zakk/Shotty team is likely?

Um ... I don't think so? Their interactions don't read as partners to me. Too much back and forth in thread.

Certainly possible they could be opposing scum. I have a solid scum read on Shotty. Zakk is such a jittery jitterbug that I'm going to say I have a hard time reading his spamming.

I should probably look at him more in depth.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's not even funny how crappy the comparison is, you are even putting blanks instead of scum on the players I am scum reading , are you trying to redefine the definition of misrep? You on the other hand have only voted confirmed town or members of the PT that aren't yourself (all of whom I am fairly certain are also town).

Lol indeed. You've made every claimed scummy vote yourself that are supposedly damning. Yet you are Town for spamming your vote on more of your own Town reads.

Doesn't compute.

The blanks are of course your claimed scum-reads. As you are mine. Funny how you try to dodge that implication in your response. Also funny is you trying to assert my IAI RVS is scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My top scumreads are Shotty (Prob biased, but quite obvious why), Kop/Seth (I outlined why, and while Seth may have been a troll, Kop wasn't much better, so my read stands), and Copper (I'm inclined to townread Magna, Liger is ok, it would be strange imo if there wasn't a scum in the neighborhood, but that's setup WIFOM, and the "roleplay" between Seth/Copper felt more SvS than anything else -- Too artificial and forced)

Our reads are pretty well aligned. I'll make you a deal. I'll revisit Kop / Seth and if I don't see any reason to object I'll align my vote with yours with the goal of making sure whatever the largest wagon on our scum suspects (Copper / Shotty / Kop) has both our votes.

Make sense to you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Seth / Kop ISO –

First thing that strikes me is 170 where Seth RVS’s Cooper. It’s common enough of a tendancy here on site and it fits well with my Copper scum read.

Also the whole Copper / Seth back and forth about “Who is your partner” looks fairly forced. Especially given that said reaction test yielded nothing and took me awhile to draw out that result from Copper.

183 also can be a multli-ball insider knowledge slip from Seth.

Seth buddies up to Egg, ETL and Titus fairly early on. Not necessarily a scum tell but incredibly useful for interaction analysis in coming days.

1097 is very, very odd. The reaction to Anen looks a bit out of proportion frankly. Possible reaction to bussing?

First Kop post that strikes me is 2149. Kop is exactly wrong – you Cop stronger players not scummy players. Scummy players in thread get lynched for being scummy. You Vig scummy players. This reaction leads to me the possible conclusion that Kop-scum partners contain at least 1 if not more stronger Vet players.

2162 is another odd interaction for the slot with Anen. Anen was clearly not under fire and that sort of thing is easily checked. Given Kop never followed up on this with Anen (regardless of Anen’s response or lack therof) I’m marking this down as another possible teammate interaction between the two.

2452 actually leads me to believe Kop and Shotty aren’t partners and provides some possible llinkage to zakk.

The whole ISO lacks strength of scum-hunting.

@Ircher

– I’m good with our agreement. Based on the last vote-count both our votes together make Kop the most viable wagon.

VOTE: Kop

[MagnaofIllusion]

Kop’s claim doesn’t dissuade me from the wagon. Commuter in a multiball set-up is a very viable scum PR. I’m not exceedingly shocked to see Copper floating Kop as scum-driven.

Seriously open Copper in ISO. Search for Seth / Kop. Observe how often he calls that slot scum right up until a wagon appears on him. Chainsaw defense at then happens. Seriously. 492, 657, 867,. Late day 1 in thread he moves him to “Meh” 1432. Overnight in the Neighborhood Seth / Kop was “likely scum”. Today started with 2333. And note how Seth / Kop mysteriously doesn’t appear in his Vote Tally analysis.

Classic soft bussing that turned into “Oh shit, Town is actually pushing on my partner” defense stance.

@Kop
If you're town what you should be interested in is why your wagon didn't pick up yesterday when it was much more legitimate (Ircher for instance first pounced on the SK claim, then later called Seth town, and now has you as my teammate apparently).

Translation – “Hey buddy here’s an avenue to try to divert the wagon on yourself”

@Magna, why do you now believe that I'm town? What was your post #1433 about? In particular, you asked me my thoughts on somebody talking about how reads change, and you said in post #1800, that you would know judging by my response whether or not I was scum-Matt.

Your question was clearly in reference to a game that was on-going at the time, (Fire and Ice Mafia, that just recently finished) as it related to a scumtell I pointed out from you that I had used to get you lynched. (I was mafia.) Now that the game is finished, it looks like your conclusion should be that I'm also mafia in this game, as my logic is slightly similar. So, what changed?

My read on your response was that it was a pretty significant change from Fire and Ice Mafia. As a reminder here is your response this game –

It's bad logic. I actually think his logic is very silly, and I generally find unwavering confidence in reads to be a bad thing. That said though, I'm not looking up to TehBrawlGuy as the pinnacle of good logic/agreement. I also don't think bad logic is inherently scum.

Brawl floated that reads that hardly changed was indicative of a real reads list.

In Fire and Ice you said a reads list that didn’t change during a single day was a scum-tell. Obviously that was clearly dumb but you had a whole squad of dumb town backing you up that game. You were Mafia.

Here Brawl was saying the exact opposite. If you were scum here I would have expected you to attack Brawl on that point. You didn’t – you just simply claimed it was silly and not scummy.

Is my interpretation incorrect? If so please let me know because that’s a large portion of why I’ve put you in my “not scum” pile today.

Also, my scumread on Anen still hasn't ceased, and I'm a little frustrated that nobody seems to feel the same way. Do I need to make a large case on him? I guess I could do that.

Why do you feel the need to ask this question? Clearly if you aren’t convincing players without it and want your scum-read taken seriously it would be a wise course of action if you are Town.

Ircher, 2682. I can't see that Kop–Copper association. (Although I've just looked into that long post because I have limited time.) Kop definitely looks bad.

Read the start of my post. Then read Copper’s ISO.

Why do you think that analysis was junk?

Inherently there are going to be more Town in a game than scum. In a sane game Town should occupy between 75 and 66% of the total playerbase. It isn’t unusual to expect to find players who have votes on Town Day 1 in a Large. Nevermind that there are no scum flips to point to which for actual analysis would be the important data.

I can also get into the fact that he’s voted all the same players I did Day 1 that are supposedly damning votes.

Care to explain?

No. It isn’t helpful to elaborate. You can dismiss or read the worst into that stance if you wish.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Let's also talk about the fact that he calls zakk shotty's scum buddy in 2452 and then says he hasn't read his iso in 2750 and doesn't have a read on him.

Just highlighting this because this is a very important point that I don’t want lost in a large wall response.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's a strong statement. Who on the wagon do you think is scum? I believe that you scumread Magna, but who else in order for it to be a "scum-pushed wagon"? What are your thoughts on Anen?

Nosferatu for starters, that read should be pretty obvious if you've been reading me.

I'm unsure about Ircher as well and entertained some suspicion about Lowell after talking to zakk but he does seem pretty town in his latest catch-up.

I did not particularly like Aneninen's latest (too many places where he was fence sitting) and the Kop vote switch when you hadn't done anything for him to change the focus, but the way I am reading the game makes him very likely town here and he did have Kop as possible scum before switching.

Look at this response to someone Copper claimed to be scum (and is still voting as of 2756) – does this look like Town talking to a solid scum suspect to you? Doesn’t to me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Anyone that has played with me_scum also knows I despise bussing so you really picked a bad subject to BS about.

I'd like the rest of you to note how he repeatedly speaks about "fitting the forum meta" or how it is "a classic soft bus" as if he were analyzing some sort of imaginary average scum player he is portraying here, does that make sense to you as a scum hunting method? This is what junk looks like to me.

This is the response I'd expect from scum - A self-meta response and throwing some ad-homenium as opposed to responding to the fact that your read on the Seth / Kop slot was scum right until the point when an actually viable wagon forms on Kop.

[MagnaofIllusion]

What a brazen liar, first of all note that Magna lied about the push being soft:

I am still not moving from Seth, maybe he is a rare snowflake (happened once with another newbie) but he ticked all my boxes and at one point you have to put up with type I errors to avoid giving too many type II's a get out of jail for free card.

Now about my read changing only after there was a viable wagon on Kop:

then voted for the Kop_slot (whom I am now assuming is a worse version of KTS)

This is when I changed my mind on the slot, at this point there were exactly 0 votes on Kop.

Oh, it wasn't a soft because you said it was a strong read? Lol, no. It was soft because it never developed into anything of a viable wagon. A quick spin through the Day 1 vote-counts was 4 total votes. So only 1/3rd of the way to a viable lynch. And let's look at the wagon make-up -

SethYazura (4) - copper223, Nosferatu, Aneninen, projectmatt

You can try to twist terminology to somehow suggest you were "hard pushing" Seth but then there is the pesky problem of half your current "scum-reads" being in step with you on that wagon. So were you hard pushing Seth a large portion Day 1 with scummy players?

As to you "changing your mind" - a sub-line buried in a bunch of relational tells is your clearly marked statement that Kop is Town?

I also note you didn't bother to respond to the fact you are talking to PM who is a supposed scum-read as if they were Town. Wonder why that is ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I spent a lot of D1 scumhunting Seth and if not much came of it it certainly wasn't for lack of effort on my side (as anyone that wants to ISO me and not make stuff up will easily see, if they don't remember already).

And yet despite your valiant effort Day 1 the wagon went nowhere. So is your assertion that Seth / Kop was Town who you pushed but scum refused to take the bait on? You asked Kop to look at why his wagon didn’t take off Day 1 when it made sense so this must be the assumption.

Yet a wagon on Ircher (who is pretty darn Town) was easy to engage for a good portion of the early Day 1. As was (we now know) the wagon on Brawl and Pers. If Kop is the Town-lynch bait you seem to be peddling now I think it would stand to reason he’d have drawn more votes with all your strong scum-hunting.

So now I am scum for not mentioning it more clearly, where did your thesis about defending the wagon go?

No … you are scum for trying to paint it as if you clearly called Kop scum when you started this day (2333), didn’t interact with the slot at all, specifically avoided giving him an analysis at 2519 (with an “Oh, he was a troll slot with a new lurker” explanation at 2626] which contradicts that you were supposedly Town reading him earlier at 2512). Mighty convinant in two posts after your supposed Town revelation when you had a chance to positively call him Town you absolutely failed to do so (once leaving him completely out of the analysis, once effectively calling him unreadable).

My view on your defense of the wagon went nowhere – you are the one who tried to “move the goalposts” with your retroactive “I was Town reading Kop much earlier” attempt.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's a further obvious scum claim from Magna by the way, he doesn't even think the difference between the middle of D1 and now in terms of read evolution is relevant, cause he freaking doesn't have to evolve any reads in the first place.

Once again, kindly lynch.

Appealing to Repetition - call me scum often enough and those pesky facts (as I demonstrated in the last post about how your read doesn't develop organically in any way, shape or form).

Misrep - I clearly understand there is a difference. I also understand your claimed reads don't make sense and have shown how they don't.

Classic scum double-play of argument fallacies.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m posting this because in our rapid fire back and forth I had with Copper yesterday I think the following point needs to be clearly understood by Town.

After I called out Copper for his turn about on Kop and attacking that wagon he posted that I was misrepping and he had clearly moved to Kop as Town well before the wagon. That’s clearly not the case and the manner in which he tried to peddle it is scummy and indicative of an attempt to cover for scum-motivated play surrounding the Kop wagon.

This is the post where Copper claims to have made his change on Kop clear –

Have to take a brake cause it's a boring process and I am trying to work as well, but (some of this relies on the assumption about Ircher and Titus):

Magna is likely scum, he has voted only town players including all three top wagons yesterday, the theory that there is one in the hood is also still the most likely and scum are peddling it probably to look smart because they know it's the case, right Nos? His push on me yesterday coordinates well with what his likely buddies were doing.

Nahdia is likely scum, she has kept the same scum reads since the start of the game, she pushed the Ircher wagon, my early crap wagon, dropped in to lynch Persi again and Anen is right that her PM read is a likely buddy read (high five if you were right). There are strong signs of coordination with Nosferatu as well and of taking advantage of and setting up Titus.

Nosferatu is likely scum, she jumped on my early crap wagon, which Titus kindly provided,

then voted for the Kop_slot (whom I am now assuming is a worse version of KTS

), did her best to get Persi lynched without voting him cause otherwise it would have been a scum-pile (that knowing he would be lynched is a likely slip, she knew her teammates could hammer), her coordinated push with Nahdia today on Anen. is another sign that they are working together (one fills the list for the other when manipulating Titus after all).

Project Matt is likely scum, I was fooled by the sensible position he took on my crap wagon, but he "promised" to keep an eye on it when Titus once again gave him an excuse to jump on it, which I now think is code for: I am not going to commit now cause my teammates are already on it, but if it starts to look juicy I'll jump. The rest of his agenda is pretty helpful to scum as the big post will highlight.

For the fifth I am going with Egg, hard defense of Magma equating him to Persi in a clear TvT (pretty scummy if Magna is scum as I expect), he is positioned to jump on copper, which again matches up well with what the other suspects are doing, but doesn't really want to cause that would compromise Magna, while pushing the much safer and defensible reads on shit/new-town (Ircher, Kop and Shaz). Still have to check his position on Anen.

VOTE: Magna

I’ve bolded the portion which Copper claims is a clear indication that he was at that point Town reading Kop’s slot. Firstly look carefully – he saying that Seth was a troll which isn’t alignment indicative. Trolls can and are scum in games. And secondly – he’s not affirmatively calling the slot Town. This is reinforced by the following later posts he makes.

What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:

Anen: town getting pushed by scum.

Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.

Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?

Expe: Town not having a fun time.

Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.

Liger: town newbie.

Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.

Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).

Nos: see pre-post read.

PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).

Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.

Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).

Titus: town by definition in this world.

Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.

His large analysis post and a perfect place for him to show his Town-read on the Kop slot. Yet that slot is no-where to be seen in the analysis. There are 14 names on that list. At this point 17 players are alive. Subtracting himself there should have been 16 reads on that list. Yet Lowell and Kop are both mysteriously absent from his analysis. We see later in that day at 2578 that he responds to Lowell’s correct statement that his analysis was junk with “Ok … you can hang.” This is not the reaction of Town who has 5 solid scum reads earlier (who Lowell was not included in) –this is the reaction of scum who thought they had a good position in Lowell’s reads and when there is any sign that isn’t the case implies Lowell should by lynched.

Then we get his reasoning for why Kop was excluded from the analysis post …

...Kop -was- missing. What's your reason behind that, copper?

That was a troll slot and now a lurker that replaced at deadline, analysis is pointless at the moment.

He clearly is not reading that slot as Town at this stage. He’s actively advocating that the slot is unreadable as a combination of Troll and replacement lurker.

In summary Copper’s attempt to portray that he was Town reading Kop before the wagon on him formed does not hold up to scrutiny by actually reading his posts.

He’s scum and has been throwing buzzwords like misrep and Appealing to Repetition to cover for his scummy play.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was scum reading the slot analytically D1, after I realized Seth couldn't be read logically (which is what I said to Shaz. when he asked me about the lack of analysis) I am now using other tools to try and figure out that slot's alignment, and the fact that basically confirmed scum Magna is pushing him makes him more likely to be town.

Look at the backtrack attempt right here ... yesterday copper claimed to be Town reading Kop way back (which I just showed to be false in my last post) but now we get "I'm Town leaning Kop because Magna is pushing him" which is exactly what I called him out for originally - he's suddenly calling Kop Town only after the wagon picked up steam. He's scrambling for anyway out of being correctly called scummy by me yesterday.

He's stipulating to exactly what I said was scummy play yesterday when he spent yesterday saying I was misrepping him.

He's scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you are interested in why Magna is scum and you are not Magna let me know, I don't have the time to go back and forth with scum especially when it doesn't seem like town is paying attention to the walls.

Translation - I'm getting my ass handed to me and so I'm going to avoid Town Magna calling me scum and just kill him at Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA ...

I need to do a hard reset on my reads. Clearly they've been pretty smelly so far. Luckily we have a Mafia flip in Anen so I am going run MoiPuter and see what a good pool of candidates to review closer is.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Summary of the Neighborhood QT -

Basically it was dead. Copper and I continued to snipe at each other. Liger showed up late, basically told us to keep it in the main thread and didn't really provide any thoughts himself which struck me as odd given his hard-on that my Night 1 activity was scummy when I was clearly V/LA. I still have reasons to lean that he's Town but I want to see what the Moiputer comes up with.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So running MoIputer gives me a pool of Lowell, Titus, Zakk, Ircher, Shaz, Cy and PM as best bets to look for scum in during my re-reads. Based on his claim I’m going to exclude Lowell. He’s claimed a scum shot, no-one is counter-claiming and his claim would be suicide as a Serial Killer. A night with 3 kills means he’s lying and can be turbo-lynched.

--

I am DrMyShottyIzSik and I approve this message.

Brought to you by the ad council and the foundation for a better lolhammer.

Sigh. MoIputer says Shotty is a bad place to look for scum. But I SOOOO want to seeing stuff like this …

--

In the zakk and Shaz versus Ircher and Titus argument I side with Ircher and Titus.

Zakk’s arguments spin more and more out of any sort of area of reason trying to bend over backwards defending Shaz’s stance which doesn’t track to my mind. For example – 3094 is a huge stretch meant to justify why he should be able to lynch Lowell that doesn’t comport with the known facts. Anen’s flip indicates we are very likely in a Mafia / SK multiball set-up and zakk is trying to spin Mafia / Mafia / SK as making any sense.

So why did you choose to ignore the part where he specifically said that, in that case, town would have blocky-healy powers to counterbalance? In that case, town would be more likely to protect the SK who was claiming vigilante, because they consider them conftown. You're now misrepresenting him too. You're flailing.

So your answer for the obvious problem with a set-up of Mafia / Mafia / SK is Town has protective roles which then help out the Serial Killer if they fake-claim Vig? Whut?

What is the scum distribution in this Mafia / Mafia / SK setup you seem to be agreeing with? Keep in mind the number of VT or Vanilla Neighbor Town flips so far when constructing your answer.

I did explahy I couldn't say my ~reasons~, that it would be bad for town. Now you're pushing for something bad for town, and rolefishing, and flailing. Christ alive.

There are no reasons that aren’t PR related that make any sense with you not sharing at this stage. Hell, there are very, very few PR related reasons given you were saying you felt Titus wasn’t a killer Day 2 and now are floating Titus as scum today.

So let's talk about this point, and the fact that it suggests that Ircher -knows- that if Zakk and I were a team, Anen wouldn't be on it. Odds it's because Anen was on he and Titus' team, probably high. Odds them having daychat therefore explains why he was sheeping Titus' votes and Titus was defending him up until somebody mentioned it, and then she tried to hard distance in thread to break that notion? Probably high. The fact that they both got real quiet once it was mentioned? Probably means they were hoping it'd be forgotten. I am perfectly comfortable in my vote at the moment.

VOTE: Shaziro

Going to re-read ISOs but given the developments of today I am comfortable leaving this here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Shaz

- you seem to have not bothered to answer this question. Please do so -

So your answer for the obvious problem with a set-up of Mafia / Mafia / SK is Town has protective roles which then help out the Serial Killer if they fake-claim Vig? Whut?

What is the scum distribution in this Mafia / Mafia / SK setup you seem to be agreeing with? Keep in mind the number of VT or Vanilla Neighbor Town flips so far when constructing your answer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sorry, missed that being a question to me. I don't know how setups work to be balanced, my experience with Mafia has been a newbie game and Town of Salem, along with a weird offsite thing. Town having lots of protectives and scum having lots of kills makes sense for balance though, does it not? I would assume 2-3 people per Mafia team, one team at least obviously had day talk so would it make sense for both to have it, in that scenario?

Well here is my problem with your original post – it is based on you presuming that we are in a scenario with two scum factions and a Serial killer (based on what I am reading as your agreement with zakk’s theory which frankly is batshit crazy) but you have put zero thought into if said set-up makes any sense. You assess that 2 to 3 Mafia per team seems reasonable.

Scenario 1 –Two member Mafia teams with a Serial Killer is very, very unlikely. Crosskills (if there are three scum kills) can win the game for Town accidently. Scum would need significant power built in to counter-act that. Yet our one scum flip so far has been an Encryptor. This doesn’t fit this scenario as in Normal games SirCakez could have just given daytalk so he could balance scum with some protection against crosskills.

Scenario 2 – 3 Mafia per team and a Serial Killer means an initial set-up of 7 scum / 14 Town. This is a very, very heavy scum percentage. Scum numbers here mean crosskills are not as likely to immediately cripple the opposing teams so you would expect Town to have significant powers to overcome the heavily scum-weighted initial starting percentage. So far we’ve had 4 VTs, 2 Vanilla Neighbors and a 2 Shot Commuter flip. There are 13 players left alive and under this scenario only 7 are Town. I’d surmise most Town players to be some sort of full PR as Town in this scenario. Yet Titus has claimed to be Odd Night and Lowell has claimed 2 shot. So the Town flips so far don’t support this position either.

Can you see why I am having a hard time reconciling you just floating along following the pants-on-head train that is zakk’s theory without even a hint on recognition on your part that maybe he isn’t making sense? Because what does make sense - Mafia of 4 or 5 members, a Serial Killer and a Vig - isn't even being considered.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, Have you considered Shaz-Ircher team and Zakk being clueless?

I'm not at this stage saying it is a Shaz / zakk team. I'm just assessing that those two set of people are arguing on opposite sides of the debate that I am seeing and which side looks to be the one making sense.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yay MoI proved I'm not scum :p

VOTE: shaz
MoI is very accurate with VCA usually so I've learned to sheep

Why are you sheeping me based on VCA when I'm not voting based on my MoIputer since I haven't even dug into ISOs and am voting Shaz for what I am seeing in the last 6 pages?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Diving into ISOs overnight and tomorrow ....

UNVOTE: Shaz

[MagnaofIllusion]

ISO Diving – Anen interactions

Titus

–

396 – asks Anen why he is voting a Townread. Don’t see any signs that this was followed up with on.

838 – Ask Anen to explain his TBG read. Follows up on a Anen response at 845 saying that Anen’s conclusion on TBG feels “Wrong (not scummy)”. In context Titus was scum reading TBG and apparently Anen was not. Not sure if scum partners would be communicating directly in thread to get what we now know is a mislynch greater strength given we know scum had Daytalk via Anen’s flip.

Compares their current reads at 864. In fact this starts a long back and forth between Titus and Anen specifically about Brawl. Again .. not sure scum with Daytalk work this hard trying to get aligned on a Town mislynch.

904 – call Anen “weak Town” with poor reads.

1141 – begins discussing with Nahdia about her Anen scum read. I’m torn on this. On one hand it is pretty hard defense of a known scum slot. On the other hand Nahdia was pretty much on an island with very few people invested in following her because she wasn’t willing to engage on a level enough to convince players to follow her.

1177 – provides meta evidence of how Town Anen reacts. Obviously it is incorrect. At 1233 again states that there is meta evidence to support a Town Anen read.

1308 – argues with Anen against a Nos scum read based on a Beetlejuice tell. That’s pretty Null in my book.

1361 – This post makes me think they are not aligned. Titus basically says “If you think Anen scum-slipped vote him. I disagree”. That’s a pretty bad compromise for a partner … not discouraging votes based on a claimed slip but not willing to join in the wagon.

1388 – suggests that Brawl or Pers (Town) and Shotty are better votes than Anen.

1518 once again calls Anen Town (or, specifically, obv-Town).

2155 – suggests that Anen and Brawl, Seth (TOWN) are good investigations. We know Anen was not investigation immune. Not sure scum suggest their partners as a 1/3 shot of investigation.

2491 – I really don’t think scum partners interact this way. Titus says “I’m ok with pressure on you since you can defend yourself and I want to see who jumps on your wagon”. That’s pointless grandstanding if they are partners given that Anen was scum.

Summary

– I don’t see them as partners. The only way Titus works as scum is as opposing Mafia faction (which I also don’t buy given her strong defense of Anen) or as Serial Killer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ircher

–

363 – Calls Anen possible scum for meta reasons (Micro 600). No apparent follow-up on that.

898 – Argues against a Town read Anen from HuerAlone again for meta reasons (Micro 600 and Newbie 1682).

1132 – Tells Nahdia to stop pushing for Anen votes. Given his previous posts related to Anen this is a strange 180.

1152 – Another defense of Anen – saying him being wrong doesn’t mean he’s scum.

2415 – This is a very soft attack on Anen – he basically is calling out Anen for Anen’s posturing on the Day 1 lynch.

2610 – Not sure what to make of this post. He asks Anen if PMatt is the only player he wants to lynch. Given daytalk … it doesn’t seem to serve a purpose. It doesn’t accomplish any distancing and Ircher could have prodded him to “do better” in the QT if that was the goal.

2859 – Anen is in his “Lean Town” on Ircher’s reads list. Reiterates this at 2891.

2974 – The only thing that rings in my head about this post is that he properly called Anen as being Vigged. Maybe nothing to it but I honestly was leaning Anen as SK shot, Copper Vig and Expedience as Mafia kill until Lowell claimed. Perhaps subconscious slip that he knows Copper was Mafia kill.

Conclusion

– Strong candidate for partner. A couple of early superficial suspicions of Anen until Anen actually catches some pressure from Nahdia. After that point it is almost entirely “Anen as Town” reads. I don’t think someone who honestly believes in the meta-tells he claims in the first two posts lets them go that easily.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Cy

–

Literally this ISO is only 31 posts long. Frankly if you are looking at a Serial Killer ISO this is it.

Responds to Anen asking him who is scum at 615. This is the kind of interaction that Daytalk renders not really likely to come from partners. I also absolutely think Cy as a Mafia member would have gotten, as Red Forman puts it, a “foot up his ass” for the lurkery game he is playing.

Agrees with Anen at 2612 regarding a wagon on PMatt. Again – not the kind of in-thread posting I expect from partners.

Conclusion

– Not Anen’s partner. Strong, strong Serial Killer candidate who is flying as much under the radar as possible and taking no stances of his own.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Shaziro

–

2778 – This is the first mention I can find in his 160something post ISO. And it is basically correcting Anen on Shotty’s site-wide temper tantrum after getting banned from discussion for the umpteenth time. Pretty null.

3019 – This is not really a direct reference but Shaz said at one point he thought Seth attacking Anen (the infamous Bird Poop post) was Scum Seth attacking Anen Town.

That is full extent of his interactions and comments towards Anen.

Conclusion

– Ehh … maybe partners? With as many posts as Shaziro has you would have thought there would have been some interaction if Shaz was trying to sort Anen. It does fit with less experienced scum being unsure how to interact with partners. On the flip-side I would think with Daytalk he would have gotten some pointers on that. Middle of the road read.

[MagnaofIllusion]

ProjectMatt

–

1226 – First direct mention of Anen in his ISO is his assessment in his reads-list. While not a direct stated scum read it is clearly implied by the Anen vote in his next post.

Returns to voting Anen Day 2 at 2341.

2392 questions Anen about his specific logic surrounding the Pers wagon.

Another response to Anen at 2605 in which he more or less calls Anen’s vote OMGUS.

2762 – This is the first post from Matt that has struck me as off. Ostensibly he wants Anen dead (via his voting pattern) and he says he could make a case to support it. That case never comes.

2822 – While MoIputer doesn’t have me looking at Nos this post makes me think it is a good idea after the MoIputer work is done.

Conclusion

– Very likely not a scum partner. Votes Anen and was pretty consistent in his stance on him. The only element holding me back is the relative weakness of him actually pushing a case on Anen. Could be “being unmotivated”, could be a sign of possible bussing. In any case I’m not voting for him until more scum flips occur as I lean towards not a Anen partner.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ll finish up my ISOs with zakk who I put off til last due to his ISO being a nightmare of spam but the following needs addressed immediately …

For the record, both me and copper claimed power roles (Not specific role), I think we both had same game plan in mind. We pretend we have power roles, then if one of us dies, then the others are on more scrutiny. Now we didn't die that night. So I thought "maybe this thing is all town or scum called our bluff". So we went in next night, copper is heavy calling magna scum and vice versa. I said we should let cooler heads prevail and just go into discussion on other things (I didn't provide much but I didn't really have much thoughts like they did).

So I am thinking that magna is either scum or this was scum framing attempt? Thats my thoughts.
I am wondering why magna never commented on the power role stuff by copper? Not sure....

No, Copper did not. He specifically claimed the opposite. Post 7 if the neighborhood Copper specifically says he is a plain Vanilla Neighbor – he says “I would flip like Pers did”. So Copper did not fake-claim a PR in the Neighborhood.

Why are you saying he did?

Also now that Liger has outed that his PR claim in the Hood is fake – that is the only reason I was Town reading him. His contributions in the Hood have been pretty barren and his ISO shows a complete lack of scum-hunting. But his willingness to claim in the Hood Night 1 (even if it was a generic “I’m a PR”) I didn’t expect to come from scum. Now that he’s said it was a gambit that makes it a complete Null to me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Zakk ISO

–

First mention of Anen is 349 where he specifically has nothing to say about him in a run-down ISO.

971 – comments on Ircher’s meta-tell on Anen and calls Ircher’s post Townie. Want to see if it goes anywhere.

1149 – This doesn’t look like a partner-partner interaction given Daytalk – I don’t see why zakk would go out of his way to remind Anen about a recent game they (and Egg) played together as meta evidence. Especially since meta evidence provided by the player on themselves tends to be viewed as fairly unreliable. Partners I would more expect to have Daytalk discussion so that Anen could drop the meta knowledge not the other way around.

2461 – day 2 Anen is in his middle of the road Town reads. Remains in the same place at 2874 later in the day.

Conclusion

– I’m on the fence but leaning not partner. For someone with as many posts as zakk I would have expected more interaction with Anen regardless of their respective alignments given the familiarity they seem to have. But both are experienced enough I would think they wouldn’t have the awkward inability to authentically interact if partners.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok back to current events –

From my read throughs I lean Ircher >> Shaz >> Zakk >> Cy >> PMatt >> Titus on the names that MoIputer spit out as Partners. Cy I would hang in an instant given I think he stands a strong chance as Serial Killer.

From names not on that list I think Egg and Liger are the names that resonate for me. Egg’s constant “30 pages behind” sthick has passed the point where is acceptable and I’m leaning that it is something he is cultivating to not have to stay current with the thread.

I’ve already expressed my thought on Liger in my first post today - the only reason I was Town reading him is that was forthcoming about being a Power-role in the Neighborhood QT . His ISO is Cy level of bad as far as content and scum-hunting goes. His recent posts where most of his pushes seem to be using Copper as a crutch (3290 as example) also hit my gut in an unfavorable way.

Icher’s series of colored vote-counts at 3232 strikes me as very LAMIST (Thanks for that info drop ETL) and IIoA. I don’t see signs of analysis coming out of what he did there at all.

Also a MS first – I agree with Shotty regarding zakk’s “Make your Kill List” post. Well, as far as that it makes it easier for scum to determine who is a better kill at Night.

I honestly did not pay much attn to Anen, much like in the newbie. Actually, the way I was reading Anen is practically the same thing I did in that newbie.

Question is – why? You expressed some level of understanding of Anen’s playstyle as scum early on. What happened that made you drop that like a hot tamale and never revisit it?

I'm mobile posting from d&d night, I'll look over what you said more closely when I get home tonight Magna. I will say that yes, it makes sense, I need to crunch through it though. Also what the hell is a MoIputer? Just your name for your VCA?

1. Yes, it is the name for my specific brand of vote analysis.
2. Did this ever occur? I don’t see evidence it did.

Oh, by the way - Nosferatu never voted Copper again during the course of this game, but only lightly attacked him or said that he was a possible choice for a lynch. This contributes to my theory that Copper was an easy target to attack without having to commit to logically stating -why-.

The rest of Nosferatu's posting is very tonally awkward/non-committal/going with the flow kind of play, but there's some very choice things about his vote on Anen that makes me suspect he is scum as well.

For one, Nosferatu has done the same thing with Anen that he did with Copper - he has lightly posted scumreads on Anen while never voting for him. This is bothersome because it looks like lightly bussing scum that was afraid to commit to the Anen wagon. If Anen really was one of his top scumreads, why didn't he join me or Nahdia on the vote? Why didn't he post anything substantial about Anen at all?

Matt – so your conclusion as far as this section goes is that Nos treated Copper and Anen the same (weak attacks without a major push), they flipped opposite alignments, and both make Nos look more like scum?

Scum: Nosferatu, Egg, Shaziro, Liger (?)

I'm not gonna bother with the vig exercise right now.

Vote: Nosferatu

So for the sake of argument pretend Nos is off the table – which of the others would you be most likely to support? Because I think you are Town and have similar reads on the other three but don’t see myself going after Nos.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 5pm EDT til Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

4. 2098 - Failed lolhammer; tries to make up excuses in 2099 - Ofc, you switch wagons right when it's convenient: right when you think you can get away with lolhammering Percival. DIE SCUM! - Very Scummy (-4)

Actually this is something I had forgotten had happened. Thanks for the reminder.

Eh. Nice try.

So what … I’m wrong that you are a Serial Killer and you are a Werewolf instead? What’s the point of this response?

So, I'm back from my break, but with that I'm actually am going to start playing this game more seriously....starting with this post.

Why as Town would you wait until now to start “playing seriously”?

I really don't know how good my instincts on this. I am really sheeping a dead player on this.

Why are you sheeping a dead player again so systematically again? I get that you know his reads are honest but let’s look at his last big read post (2519) again –

He was wrong calling Anen Town being “pushed by scum”. By further contrast his scum reads on Nahdia and PMatt are probably wrong given those two don’t stand much of chance of being Anen’s partner.

So Copper while well meaning clearly isn’t infallible and I don’t think mindlessly sheeping him is necessarily smart play if you are Town.

Probably Shaziro, as he's my most confident of the reads apart from Nosferatu, and I want to give Egg a little bit of a chance to catch up and post content. If he doesn't, then he'll become my primary target. (after Nos, of course.) Why can't you see yourself going after Nos?

More precisely – I don’t see myself going after him today. Probably should have been more clear.

This game - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65953 is why.

If you need to read anything read my Day 4 (Day scum Ranger got lynched) back and forth with him. With him eventually being Town it is my baseline calibration on what I can expect from Nos.

Granted I don’t have scum meta on him I have bigger fish I think need fried currently.

Also – how much time does Egg need to catchup you think? This is effectily the second full game-day he’s been doing it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA …

@Titus

– why haven’t you done anything with VCA again? We have a scum flip. I’m having a hard time with understanding why Town Titus would not have put in the effort already.

Cy SK...I'm not townreading him but I don't like the attempt to pigeonhole as an SK.

Why exactly? His posting pattern is very indicative of what I expect to see from an SK in a Large game. Do you disagree with my assessment that he doesn’t look like an Anen partner?

VOTE: Egg

I’m pretty much sold based on his reaction to Lowell suggesting he’s a viable lynch. He’s been sitting for 1.75 game days (which, for the record, is a better part of a month) perpetually behind the thread. Never seems to make much headway in catching up. Yet when suddenly people start noticing his slot’s behavior he is magically able to find the time to catch right up to the thread. He was positioned in the perfect spot for scum wanting to stay right under the radar – he wasn’t required to take any actual stances on current events and could use 100% hindsight to craft his posts however he felt would best make him appear Town. Case in point – 3415 is still talking about Day 2 yet 24 real life hour later 3423 he’s suddenly managed to make a full catch-up. Why didn’t think happen earlier? He wasn’t getting any suspicion.

And Egg himself finds survivalism to be scummy –

Shaziro, it doesn't show a survivalist mentality which scum tend to have.

--

Though I could be putting more effort into the game, I wouldn't say I am deep lurking...

I am nowhere saying his reads are 100% gold....I am saying there's reasons for him being dead and me being here.

Did you seriously post these back to back?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, I usually do it on Day 4. I have Ben wanting to do it sooner but I am in a why bother wasting my time in a thread full of people who treat me like a child to be ignored mood.

If you are Town and you have expertise that can help Town achieve a victory then this explanation is at best petty. It isn't a good look.

I'm concerned because my experience (yes, it is limited) with scum Titus says she puts off doing VCA.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, I'm liking egg for town in this honestly, now that he is caught up.

Let me guess - it is because he Town reads you, right?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Really? Another do what I want or else.

Fucking dicks. All of you. It takes like 3 hours to do it right. So could you at least be considerate of my time and color AND spoiler all the VCs with NO suggestive crap.

Um this isn't a "Do what I say or Else". Seriously stop being so petulant. If you were a scum read I wouldn't have made the post and would have just voted you.

You know very fucking well from that Open game I am going to keep my eyes open to things that I find possibly suspect (as I did with Imperium and the way they defending Rach so hard - they were correct and I Town-read Imperium but wasn't just going to dismiss what I saw without some thought).

[MagnaofIllusion]

3525 confuses me. magna, why wait until I gave up on the egg wagon to join it? you tryin' to look cool without actually risking lynching anyone?

I can’t help that you gave up when I was V/LA and Egg only made the posts that really cinched his alignment as scum for me during that same period.

Why didn’t you vote him again to give the wagon legs?

Magna, Really? Petulant? When I have to post 30 times to get a question answered it's petulant?

Yes. No reason to effectively tell me to “Go Fuck Off” when you are mad that Shaz isn’t answering a question. He’s not going to. That much is clear. Asking it over and over isn’t going to change that. You want to pressure him to spill this “reasons”? Vote him and get others to follow you. Otherwise stop tilting at that windmill for the moment.

Hmm. I started calling Magna scum and now he's voting me. Thought he was above OMGUS. Lemme read his points though:
-My getting caught up never has and never will have anything to do with the game itself. I bought a house on June 3rd. Most of my free time has been spent moving. Considering my lease at my last place is up at the end of the month, that's slowed down. I was waiting for one free night. I got it the night I caught up.
-I don't believe that "the perfect spot for scum to be under the radar", as you put it, exists. I'd rather control a game where I'm scum. I'd want to be the one deciding who gets lynched. If I'm going to be lynched as scum, it's going to be to set up my buddies to win or because people ask "why is he still alive?"
- If you think I didn't take any stances, you didn't read my posts at all.
- Yes, survivalism is scummy. Why am I wrong for thinking that?

Lol. Actually it is funny because that is exactly the opposite of what actually happened – I expressed my suspicion of you in 3371 and low and behold when you make your sudden catch-up post I am suddenly being scum-read. So it is you that suddenly has the suspicion of me not the other way around.

Yes, a lovely explanation that can’t be confirmed in any way. I’m not just going to take your word for it that your sudden catch-up coincides right with when you start getting suspicion. Why do you expect I (or anyone) should?

Self-meta as an excuse. Gotcha.

I never said you didn’t take stances. I said your stances are conveniently only about issues / posts well in the past and thus not actual scum-hunting. You cruised along commenting on items exclusively from a Day ago until you get called out.

I didn’t say you were wrong (although I think every alignment wants to survive), I was pointing out that your sudden catch-up is survivalist to a tee and thus you are advocating your own play as scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm an odd night Neopolitan. Checked ETL n1 got no result. Therefore, I knew I was blocked. Shaz reacted as he knew I was blocked. Pressed him on it. Says he knows I didn't kill anyone for reasons and makes a jail reference. I try to tell him to jail only on even nights if he can.

On day 3, he starts speculating that I am scum and denies the jailkeep. So fuck yeah I want an answer.

This is on point and the fact that there is such a hard time getting anyone but Titus or myself to acknowledge it is significant IMO.

I've never seen a town Neapolitan tbh

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=66137

Now you have seen one. The great mystery of the Town Neo, unlike Bigfoot, is truly solved.

Magna, ok. I took 3371 as a personal attack for joining a game I didn't have time for, not suspicion. My mistake I guess. Not really sure how you thought that was alignment indicitve, but you probably should have specified that buying a house is scummy. Seriously, do I have to post a picture of my paperwork or something? You expect that my brilliant strategy is to lie about RL circumstances? Come on, I've been playing long enough not to be scared of being scum. Oh, and no shit my opinions on the past are about the past. I'm not gonna come in here and be like "hi I'm up to Page 70 so here's my thoughts on Page 100." I need full context. It's how my mind works. Go look at any game I've ever been behind as on either this account or my Kmd one. I catch up when I'm behind. I'm actually kind of offended that I kept putting 2-3 hours into catching up on this at a time and you say it's not scumhunting. Also, there's nothing survivalist about lurking. Lurkers get lynched. That's bullshit and you know it. Funny how I was just telling my wife I need to quit mafia and I come back to a post that shrugs off the hours I put into this game as some kind of "lol I dont wanna play cuz Im scum". Now I remember why I can't handle playing mafia.

See this is a scum-bag response. In no way, shape or form did I say buying a house was a scum-tell. I said your play looked like the scum happy to just cruise along well behind the times until it was noted as suspect in thread. Then, in Beetlejuice fashion wham suddenly you instantly caught up. I personally don’t care about your self-meta explanation when as scum you can certainly play to what you perceive to be Town meta and stay under the radar at the same time.

And when did ever say you were lurking? That’s not the charge and your attempt to label it as such is scummy. You weren’t lurking. You provided posts on a reasonable basis. You just NEVER were current with the thread until it became an issue. If I was going to target lurkers I would exclusively target players like ProjectMatt or Cy who have significantly lower post counts than you do.

As far as being offended – I’m sorry if you are offended that I suspect you to be playing a scum oriented game but that emotional hurt isn’t going to dissuade me from voting and suspecting you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, Great. You agree with me. Why do you think Shaz knew I was blocked?

Because he likely blocked you. I mean that’s the Occam’s Razor answer.

No.

Why not?

Two reasons, the first of which is that I don't feel like you'd claim like that. The second is for ~reasons~ that would be bad for town to be outed atm.

This is his original post. The first part makes sense but is made mostly irrelevant by the “reasons” second half.

Said reasons can’t be the following –

1. Role which investigates alignment directly (Cop / Hider / etc) – He would not be voting you today under that circumstance. And Pre-Lowell claim even if he did get an Town result he couldn’t clear you of being a Vig.

2. Non-JK protective role – has no impact on whether you sent a kill.

3. Being Vig himself and Town reading you – Lowell’s claim and his reaction to said claim shows this isn’t a viable possibility.

4. Him being scum and knowing you are Town – Serial Killer (or if I am set-up wrong, opposite Mafia team) would still be a possibility.

That leaves basically on a few things that could stand up as good reasons why he would suspect you didn’t kill someone.

1. He blocked you (Roleblocker / Jailkeeper).
2. He’s a Tracker and saw you go no-where.
3. He’s a Voyeur and saw you get targeted by a blocking power.

Egg, liger, and project matt

Votecount 3.7

Not voting (2) - Nosferatu, Shaziro

[MagnaofIllusion]

P.s. I rejected tracker/voyeur because of me being the investigative role.

This is a Large game. Your claimed role, even if it wasn’t Odd-Night, isn’t so strong that another non-Cop style investigative role doesn’t make sense in the set-up.

i don't think you have a leg to stand on when it comes to talking about accuracy

Dislike this posting as no-one really has any leg to stand on accuracy wise is concerned given we have not lynched scum yet. Ok, Lowell gets credit for shooting Anen but you aren’t Lowell. Scummy undermining.

but why would he crumb it as scum in the first place? Much more likely that he's town that doesn't want the scum team to kill him.

Do you really think that makes any sense given all the gymnastics he’s done today? He couldn’t have painted a more noticeable target on his back if he tried if he is Town.

Tell you what. I'll explain, in full, my ~reasons~ next day phase. But we've got to get there. How sure are we that Nos is scum? I'm honestly not seeing it so much anymore.

Is anyone else seeing this pattern? Nos happens to be no longer scum in Shaz’s mind right after Nos decides that Shaz is Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I explained that my nos scumread died at the start of this game, it's nothing to do with him town reading me. You're attempting to make up associatives when there are none there. Gross.

No assessing a pattern in your behavior is called scum-hunting Shaz.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeesh, I apparently used the wrong word, chill. You appear to be trying to link Nos and I with false information. You did the same with Egg. I've explained why I townread both of them, and you're electing to ignore that to push your narrative.

Your explanations are weak. For example - this explanation is so weak 3534 that you attempting to sell it as a reasonable alternate explanation makes me feel my initial gut assessment is valid. A single factor (that he didn't agree with Titus that your failure to back up your Day 2 "reasons") is not the basis for a compelling Town read from Town. My observation that you start actively calling him Town right after he Town reads you seems like a more reasonable assessment. Scum, you know, do have to lie about motivations for calling other players Town.

How am I linking you to them again? I'm not. I'm saying your read changes on them don't track and appear to me to be motivated from a scum perspective. That means I am reading you as scum. Nothing more nothing less.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You're changing it now from talking about my Nos read to talking about my egg read. I think the way he reacted to Titus' awful push was pro-town, and nothing before that is readable because he was just catching up forever. But you were real quick to try and change the subject when I pointed out why your argument about Nos was wrong. Ew.

Actually this struck me as an odd response. So I went back and checked your early Day 3 posts. You did actually walk away from a Nos scum read early today as opposed to after he called you Town. So I was completely wrong on that. That also means the Egg read is not the start of a pattern ….

I need to rethink on you ... I might be tunneling.

VOTE: Ircher

Something just clicked for me. Ircher just proved he is scum to me. I can't explain why tonight but I can tomorrow. Lynch this. It's to do with my ~reasons~.

Is this all you can post on the subject? I already have huge concerns about your “Reasons” given you basically forced a claim out of Titus with them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, I never would have claimed if not wagoned, who was scum voting for me?

Why don’t you tell me who you think? Frankly this information sharing we’ve been doing lately seems to be a one-way street and that is starting to bug me.

Ok, what do you think is the regular town response for what happened to Shaz? In a situation assuming that townie Tim is in fact an odd night roleblocker. Tim crumbed that you had knowledge that Titus was town for god knows what reason, and she immediately decided to hound him like a dog for it. How does Tim respond?

Firstly – she didn’t “immediately decide to hound him”. His “reasons” post happened eartly Day 2 and yet it was only into Day 3 that Titus pressed him for results.

Secondly – I think a Town response would be, when called on it, to explain. There was no point as Town in your scenario for Shaz to say he didn’t think she was a Vig and then push her as scum Day 3.

There is not a Normal approved Role on MS that justifies the level of “I’ll explain later” we are getting from him.

I doubt scum would even try to clear you as town, subtly or no, in the first place.

So buddying isn’t a thing?

[MagnaofIllusion]

i'm more interested in lynching nos and nahdia than anyone else right now

Why exactly are you interested in lynching Nahdia? Explain that position.

VOTE: cytheflyguy

Flash counter, I don't trust the nos wagon.

Nosferatu (5) - projectmatt, Liger_zero, Lowell, zakk, cytheflyguy

Add in Nahdia’s L-1 vote and the wagon is

PMatt, Liger, Lowell, zakk, Cy, and Nahdia

So who are you scum reading besides CY on this wagon that makes you distrust it again? Certainly not Nahdia or Lowell from your interactions with them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I gave intent fyi Magna

Yes, I get that. Are you saying I should have included you in my "Why is Titus wanting another counter-wagon" post?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok ... amend the wagon to be

PMatt, Liger, Lowell, zakk, Cy, Nahdia and Ircher

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey zakk answer the question -

Why do you want to lynch Nahdia?

[MagnaofIllusion]

why is everyone so dumb but me???????????????

Here is your new Avatar



You are welcome.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So Shaz most likely is a Serial Killer with that claim. I'll did some reading overnight of the non-Lowell claimed targets of NK and Shaz was one of the names that showed up. Will explore more after I get back from V/LA.

Also will want to re-read Shaz's reaction to Lowell's claim.

Liger did not post in the Neighborhood overnight. I specifically asked him if he had any thoughts right after the thread opened and then about 14 hours before Night was set to end I specifically told him I was going after him today to see if he has any reaction in thread. Nada.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Shaziro

After a night of sleep and some rumination time this morning it is pretty clear he is the Serial Killer and his story doesn’t really add up.

Night One we had three kills – KTS, ETL, and Brawl
Night Two we had three kills - Copper, Expedience, and Anen
Night Three we had two kills – Ircher and Lowell

We know Lowell had no reason to lie about his claimed shots of KTS and Anen given he flipped Town.

Let’s process Shaz’s claimed shots –

KTS – if this is to be believed then he and Lowell doubled up Night one. That leave two other independent kill sources at large – the Mafia and presumably a Serial Killer.

Copper – so this Night there is only one independent kill source to be seen. Which means that either both other sources managed to double up again or from what we know claim wise Ircher was protected by the Rolestop (which I have questions about given how specific Shotty’s crumb as and how it doesn’t align with Untrod role but that can be sorted out after Shaz).

Ircher – so again only one independent source of kills – Lowell. Unless Untrod is revoking the Even Night portion of his claim then he didn’t stop a kill. Which would mean once again the Mafia and the other source doubled up on either Ircher or Lowell.

So we have two routes in analyzing this set of data.

First that Sharizo is a Serial Killer who either ETL or Brawl Night One, either Copper or Expedience Night Two and either Ircher or Lowell (although in that case Ircher is the obvious target as Lowell’s death confirms his role and screws over Shaz).

Second that Shaziro is a full Vig in a game with every other claimed or flipped active Power-role have limits (number of shots, Even / Odd) of some sort, that scum doubled up on at least one Night and maybe two pending Untrod’s clarification on his role.

Occam’s Razor clearly points to the first option. But let’s look at some posts from the dead –

Agree with this post/10.
Look at heur iso.

It's the goddamn definition of coasting. Most of his posts are one liners, and his only stated reads are on me (circa forever ago) and Cy, the easiest wagon in the game. It's a Large, and he has one current read, but he's here enough to answer a question directed at cy in 776 for some reason?

vote heur

Reminder – Shaziro replaced Heur.

I like this whole block except for Ircher. If we can agree on a good target (i.e. Heur/seth) it seems sensible.

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.

Brawl was pretty damn firm on Shaz’s slot as scum. ETL on the other hand had Shaz as Town. Brawl makes sense as a kill that a Serial Killer would not want to claim given this.

Both Copper and Expedience had the Shaz slot as varying degrees of Town. Nothing to be drawn directly from their reads.

But let’s look at Shaz’s post regarding his claimed N2 shot Copper –

I feel like copper was trying to help town? I don't know how helpful it will be, to be honest. I know I can't quite chew through it well to get to his point. I would be interested to see a normal reads list of his though.

This is the closest thing to a direct read from Shaz on Copper in his ISO. The other salient point from him is the following -

Here's the quote. So this is you suggesting that somebody should off Copper, and he flipped town tonight. You were wrong, and were directing PRs to an incorrect target. The reason, I assume, was that I brought up that he never did the "If Titus is scum" half of his big analysis thing. That is what he agreed was bad just before painting a target on copper. Now, Copper may've been a scum kill and he may have been a town kill, we don't know. But we do know that Ircher put the target there. What's up with that, Ircher?

This doesn’t read as the reaction of someone who Vigged Copper. Notice the language of “directing PRs”. Read his interactions with Ircher Day 2. He wasn’t Town reading Ircher. That’s clear. But now he is saying he took Ircher’s advice and vigged Copper instead of killing a player he was scum-reading?

[MagnaofIllusion]

aight, I'll agree with chaining the SK

For someone calling the rest of the player-list idiots you are filling those shoes admirably UT. I was reading Town Shotty but now seeing this I am worried this is scum UT from Inspirational Mafia because chaining a SK is so Pro-Scum.

There are 10 players alive. A Mafia + Serial Killer proportion in a set-up this size is probably 4-1. One Mafia down leaves 3-1-6 as the numbers as they stand today. Not lynching an claimed Scum means that a mislynch today and no cross kills and tomorrow it is 3-1-3 which means Town no longer has the majority and is more or less doomed.

Now this is a worst case scenario but the kind of thing you have to keep in mind.

Meanwhile lynching the Serial Killer means that it is 3-6 going into Night and we have one fewer Nightkill to worry about which extends the amount of lynches available to hit Mafia.

[MagnaofIllusion]

(Also, no offense taken. I'm new, I know I've got a lot to learn.)

Oh look the Newbie card ... this is more or a less a confirmation he's the Serial Killer since he retreats to the "I'm inexperienced" only after his bad claim had to have been made.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm a rolestopper, actually

So as I mentioned earlier this is troubling. I have issues with Shotty claiming to Rolestop (aka protect) Ircher who he was scum-reading for much of the game.

Please confirm that was his Night 2 target.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@UT: it's not "that would be dumb" it's more like "that would be suicidal" and shaziro though he's not the brightest crayon (again no offense) he doesn't seem suicidal

plus, reasons above. we should ignore him and let scum waste a kill on maybe-scum maybe-town instead of trying our luck at lynching him.

Nope this is stupid.

Shaz was forced into claiming today due to his "reasons" post. As a Serial Killer he has to claim the only role that might not get him insta-lynched (it is going to anyway) which is Vig as for why he didn't think Titus was claiming Vig.

Scum aren't going to shoot him. They are going to either let him shoot Town (if he is leashed) or block him (remember that Titus was blocked N1? Unless you think UT is scum lying then we have a mystery blocker out there which is very likely scum).

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, I'm lost again. My ~Reasons~ are that I am a vigilante,

without a limit on my shots as far as I can see.

I didn't say there was no modifier.

The bolded is exactly you saying that.

This is a walk-back attempt that only comes from a Serial Killer who sees people speculating on how his claim doesn't fit. Especially coming after 3877 where he plays the "Do it for the good of the Town if you have to" casual card in an attempt to seem at ease with being flipped. And seeing it fall flat.

[]====== this scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

the only thing that concerns me is he could potentially be a role like PGO or CPR doc or something dumb like that

How can you possibly think as a PGO he can be the cause of the deaths of two VT roles and a normal, non-acting Neighbor as he claims to be?

If he was a CPR Doc he would have claimed that, not Vig.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so we definitely need to finish the Mass claim at this stage. My preferred order is –

Egg
Zakk
Nahdia

Personally unless something jaw dropping falls out of the Mass-claim I want Liger or Egg dead today.

Liger went another complete cycle without posting in the Neighborhood. I again told him specifically he had the length of Night to demonstrate to me he wasn’t scum afraid to post there. Nothing. And his replace-out is highly suspect. His slot has skated by for several Days without providing a single bit of content or reads. He escaped yesterday due to the obvious “Get Rid of the Serial Killer” Pro-Town play. Today he would not have had that shield. Suddenly his slot is getting replaced which I think is an attempt to buy a Replacement Halo.

Egg my read hasn’t shifted on. He’s only been engaged with the game when he is under pressure and even then he really isn’t doing any actual scum hunting – just doing enough defense to skate by.

I do hink massclaim issss in order. If we hit the scum roleblocker, that forces scum to murder me and conftown Cy.

Do you honestly, after saying this, think scum are going to claim a blocking role?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, They were never going to after blocking me N1.

Then I don't understand why you said "Mass-claim, if we hit the scum roleblocker" as there is no chance they are going to claim and give themselves away.

And the whole town roleblocker is dead...

We never had a Town Roleblocker (at least in Shotty). Shotty is an idiot apparently. So we had a Town Even Night Rolestopper who could not have blocked you Night 1 anyway.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, massclaim makes it harder for scum and forces them towards shooting me or blocking me tonight. A mass claim forces scum to match my result, generating way too many PRs, or leave themselves vulnerable to my role outing them. Thus forcing the night play.

If we do lynch the scum blocker, and we have a protective role, worst case scenario we enter tomorrow with a conftown.

Meh. There are lots of assumptions you are making that I don't necessarily agree with in this but I'm not interested in fighting about it right now.

I'll wait for the mass-claim to finish before I say any more on the subject.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 5pm EDT until Monday morning for normal weekend duties.

Sorry. Massclaim means all claim. I wouldn't mind Cy not claiming BC conftown but for him to b conftown means obvious role outage.

This post makes me itch …

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why?

By stating conftown don't need to claim in a massclaim?

If my clear didn't reveal his told, but I was a Sherriff instead Cy shouldn't claim. My role necessarily outed his.

Interesting tactic Magna...

Because it is a pointless post. You've already claimed him to be a VT in thread. Cy confirmed it. There is no point to even bringing up any need for him to participate in a mass claim because he's already claimed.

The only people who need to claim are Egg, zakk and Nahdia.

Yet you made a point about Confirmed Town not participating in a Mass Claim as if was of significance. It makes me question why Town Titus would bother posting that at all. Your response here is to babble about a Hypothetical that is irrelevant to the game-state.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA …

I see nothing much has happened in interim other than Nahdia actualizing her Innocent Child role. Nice.

Actually that revelation makes me rethink where I was on game balance.

Waiting on Egg before I say any more …

[MagnaofIllusion]

Before you disappear for three more days claim your role so we move forward ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

welp. your turn magna.

Did you seriously post this? I've already been claimed as of Day 1 - I'm a Neighbor.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So first things first – let’s talk set-up:

Flipped Roles –

Innocent Child – Nahdia
2 Shot Commuter – Kop
2 Shot Vigilante – Lowell
Even Night Rolestopper – Untrod
Neighbor - Copper, Persivul
VT – KTS, ETL, Brawl, Expedience, Nosfertu, Ircher

Mafia Encyptor – Anen

1 Shot BP Serial Killer – Shaz

Claimed Roles –

Neighbor (Confirmed by each other as far as being in the Hood) – Liger, MoI
Odd Night Neopolitan – Titus
VT – zakk, Egg, Projectmatt, Cy

Looking at the claims there is no-one not already clear who can be considered so. The inclusion of an Innocent Child role means Titus’s claim can be a scum Neopolitan (or some other role). She’s experienced enough to know that Neopolitan is rare enough to not necessarily draw a counter-claim if she’s fake-claiming. The only reason I wasn’t giving her more scrutiny is that Town looked a bit light on balance without an Investigation role. However an Innocent Child alters that analysis greatly.

Cy is probably Town. The is a chance he was “cleared” by his partner if Titus is scum but I find that to be a less likely scenario.

Assuming you buy scum in the Neighborhood (which I do) you have a scum team that sets us as

Encryptor
Neighbor
????

Encryptor is a fairly powerful role given it allows for day coordination which in a game this size is more potent given the length of Days and general size of the thread. Neighbor his neutral (as it is for Town) on balance points.

I can see Titus as a Scum Neopolitan given the 6 flipped VTs (with 4 more claimed with most likely 3 of them actually VT) that scum has to hunt for Town PRs.

If she’s not scum then given the volume of Town PRs with an IC I think that last scum role is a full strength Roleblocker type.

In any case the only way more than 1 of zakk, Egg, Project or Cy is scum is if Liger is Town and Titus is Town. And in that case 2/3 of zakk, Egg, Project are scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The thing is, the even-night rolestopper being town means that was included as some sort of counterplay to a scum ability. So either Titus is an unlimited Neapolitan lying to us about her limitations (definitely possible) or the last scum is some other form of investigative.

Um, no. Rolestopper actually is a defensive Town role first and foremost. It prevents the target from being killed. The ability for it to stymie a secondary Mafia ability (like an investigation or roleblock) is a nice bonus. Rolestopper is a Doctor on steroids who beats the shit out of anyone else who tries to mess with his patient.

So the conclusion on that follows is not necessarily valid.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Still, with the only investigative claiming to be odd night while the rolestopper was even night; why not just make it a doctor???

Why not make other roles different roles? Ask Cakez post-game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So here is the state of the Union as the end of each day ...

Don't like my conclusion? Copy and recolor on your own.

Day 1 –

Persivul

(11) -

Lowell

,

Magnaofillusionl

, Titus, zakk,

Killthestory

,

Ircher

,

Expedience

,

Shaziro

, cytheflyguy, projectmatt,

Nahdia

Killthestory

(5) - Egg,

Kop

,

TehBrawlGuy

,

copper223

,

Untrod Tripod

TehBrawlGuy

(1) -

Aneninen

EspeciallyTheLies

(1) -

Persivul

Kop

(1) -

Nosferatu

Not voting (2) -

EspeciallyTheLies

, Liger_zero

Day 1 actually is pretty important from a standpoint of clearing Egg in my mind. Because I do not see a Pers wagon that gets to 11 without at least two Mafia on the wagon. So the only way Egg is scum is if Liger’s slot is Town and I don’t believe that for a minute.

Day 2 –

Kop

(9) -

Expedience

,

Magnaofillusionl

,

Nosferatu

,

Aneninen

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Shaziro

, Titus,

Ircher

,

Lowell

Magnaofillusionl

(2) - Liger_zero,

copper223

projectmatt (1) - cytheflyguy
Titus (1) - zakk

copper223

(1) -

Nahdia

Aneninen

(1) - projectmatt
cytheflyguy (1) -

Kop

Not voting (1) – Egg

This day looks very bad for Titus. I mean it is possible that Kop got lynched with only 1 Mafia on the wagon but I’d not bet heavily on it. The only thing that makes me even consider it is the fact that all the rest of the wagons were tiny vanity wagons.

Day 3 –

Nosferatu

(7) - projectmatt, Liger_zero,

Lowell

, zakk, cytheflyguy,

Nahdia

,

Ircher

Ircher

(2) - Egg,

Shaziro

zakk (1) -

Untrod Tripod

Untrod Tripod

(1) -

Nosferatu

Egg (1) -

Magnaofillusionl

cytheflyguy (1) - Titus

Not voting (0)

Given I think Liger is scum I don’t see more than 1 of Matt / zakk / Cy as scum with him. If you accept Titus as Town then it is either Matt or zakk here. Although Titus as Town undercuts my Town read on Egg from Day 1 Vote Counts.

Day 4 –

Shaziro

(6) -

Magnaofillusionl

,

Untrod Tripod

, cytheflyguy,

Nahdia

, Titus, zakk

Not voting (4) - projectmatt, Liger_zero, Egg,

Shaziro

100% Town wagon on a Serial Killer? Highly doubt it. If you think Titus is Town the only slot left there is zakk.

[MagnaofIllusion]

1. why would titus get a scum neapolitan instead of just a role cop (there are already some other

2. her claim of odd-night neapolitan makes perfect setup sense with even-night rolestopper from a setup creation standpoint

3. odd-night anything for scum would be weird, especially since there's already a town even-night flip

so basically she's either WAY MORE LIKELY a goon than a neapolitan... or... she is what she says she is

and if she's a goon then she took a chance on claiming a VT result on cytheflyguy (if he's town) because if he wasn't a VT he would have called her out unless he was scum with her, when she could have easily claimed she was blocked again on N3 which would have been the safe play, and

but simple logic dictates she is what she says she is, especially since she

a. claimed odd-night BEFORE shotty claimed even night

b. claimed AT ALL (she didn't need to in that situation, she did it to get Kop lynched since she didn't believe the 2-shot claim)


so either titus is playing SUPER BALLSY SCUM

or she's just town. and so is cy.


BONUS: me wanting to lynch town the entire game is a SUPER STRONG REASON i'm probably alive right now


titus is town.

and you doubtcasting her at this point doesn't look like a town play.

This is so bad I don't even. Frankly if you are Town zakk you need to maybe do less talking and more thinking.

Why does a Town Even Night Role mean scum can't have an Odd Night Role? Why are you saying a scum Neopolitan can't exist?

Frankly reading this given how your sudden flip-flop on Titus today I see all the fingerprints of scum who has been trying to mislynch Titus for much of the game and now is bending over backwards to try to justify buddying up to her.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i mean, it's possible the scumteam is just all the lurkers (matt, liger, egg). which would be why they werent on the wagon.

i have townreads on egg and zakk but them or titus is obvs a wrong read. bleh.

I'd like to remind you that zakk looks to be lynch shopping. Remember he took a run at you today briefly before you ICed his mouth shut.

[MagnaofIllusion]

After looking at Vote-Counts and doing some set-up spec I'm open to Liger, Matt or zakk for today's lynch.

Liger I've already said my peace on multiple times and VCA doesn't give me any reason to doubt my read.
Matt shows up lots of places I expect scum to appear (Day 1, 2 and 3 all make reasonable sense for him as scum).
zakk looks like a lock if you have a Titus Town read based on Day 4. Frankly his play today also rubs me the wrong way.

[MagnaofIllusion]

purple above: magna SHOULD have already suspected me prominently at this point due to his own PoE

Yes, it’s as if PoE from two days ago is superceded by PoE from today with better information (aka more flips). Oh wait that’s exactly what it is.

here instead he's still pushing liger, and saying i'm only scum if titus is town, even AFTER he said i'm unlikely to be aneninen's parther though he threw in weasel words "i'm on the fence but..." so he could change his mind if he ever wanted to lynch me

Nice misrep. I said you were definitely scum if Titus is Town. And once again – an review of your ISO from prior is of course subject to change. You are trying to float that reads should not change with new information.

Scumtastic.

Frankly the rest of 4037 is scum flailing in the most unreadable way ever. Seriously, learn to type in a manner befitting an adult not a 4 year old.

Go back and read zakk’s posts today. Note that he absolutely wants to lynch Liger up until the point where he realizes I’m not in his back pocket and start pointing out his scummy play. Then it's "Oh crap" and what you see. Because zakk who was secure that he was being as obv-Town as he says would not blink for a second about my suggestion that he's possible scum. He wouldn't be worried. But clearly he is.

Then the floodgates of flail open ...

Comical.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So now we are in a holding pattern so ProjectMatt can provide content. I need to find a cool helicopter reaction pic ..

@Creature

– One question for you – did you read the Neighborhood? I don't see anything directly in your ISO that says you did (or I missed it) but I would like positive confirmation. Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

So given the results of the last page I’m satisfied with my initial VCA reading of Project and zakk as scum. Egg seems like someone unable to read his role PM given he is buddying up to Matt.

zakk literally has been angling to see if he can push a mislynch on me over his partner Matt since I called him out today. Notice his backpedal earlier when it didn’t look like there was thread support for my mislynch. Now you get two voices and suddenly – WHAM – zakk is back on the ‘lynch me’ train. If zakk isn’t scum he’s one of the worst Town players I’ve ever come across who isn’t a VI.

Lol, this looks like a lame excuse to not provide content. How are you guys being put in a holding pattern by me needing 24 hours to post content? We have 8 days until the deadline. It's an incredibly stupid idea to lynch so soon, even if we had a confirmed mafia. The idea is that more discussion leads to a lot more stuff to analyze/better reads.

Scum not reading the thread. I’ve already posted tons of scum-hunting content today. Who I think is scum is absolutely clear and concisely presented. Yet Matt is looking for things he thinks he can portray as scummy as opposed to actually scum-hunting.

The last part is “Don’t lynch me we have time for my partners to engineer a counter-wagon to save my scummy ass”

The scum-team is still Liger, Magna, and Egg, because my townread on Zakk hasn't waivered.

And if you had any doubts of Matt as scum – here is the smoking gun. The scum team contains Liger and myself. His theory is that scum had TWO neighbors of 4 to start the game. His Town read on zakk with no actual reasoning behind it seals it for me.

VOTE: ProjectMatt

bc i'm town.

Nope but thanks for trying.

1. given magna's relative inactivity throughout the game and now his intense activity whenever he's threatened/challenged
2. given magna's hard-ass push on shaziro yesterday with the epically awesome case that was so good it just made me say "me too"
3. given magna's pushing on me as scum now when for the ENTIRE REST OF THE GAME he has just been calling me crazy/stupid
4. given magna's title

1. I’m hardly inactive and your attempts to portray that I am comes from scum.

My post count – 150
Liger’s + Creature’s? 88 (and 25% of that is Creature since replacing in). Matt’s? 87 Egg’s? 114

Yup, scum OMGUSing and stretching for anything they think they can use to paint me as scum.

2. The good point here is your jump on at the last minute – scum wanted to keep the Serial Killer around to kill confirmed Town and make the game a lock loss for Town. You hemmed and hawed trying to giveShaz every chance to escape the noose. And then when you knew it was inevitable hammered so you didn’t get painted as obv-scum. And now you are trying to use the lynch of a Serial Killer as a scum-tell. So obviously scummy.

3. Look, it’s OMGUS.

4. Scum tell 101. zakk is absolutely scum as the only people who ever bring this up are scum who are desperate to find things they think they can paint as scummy.

It could not be more clear.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks for the game Cakez! It was enjoyable.

Thanks to Anen and zakk for being great QT partners and making this as enjoyable an experience as Mafia gets to be. Also cudos for zakk to getting us through the last leg of the journey.

I've already said most of my thoughts about play in the Dead QT so I'm not going to rehash.

No objections (I personally think QTs should be auto released ... don't post anything in a Mafia QT you don't want made public is my stance) to release of the Mafia QT.