Mafia 95 - Quick & Dirty - Game Over!

[Xylthixlm]

Who is scum?

[Xylthixlm]

vote: Papa Zito

[Xylthixlm]

Sam, there is no Fritzler in this game...

He still exists outside the game.

Someone needs to reread the site rule about outside influences

[Xylthixlm]

It's a random vote with a silly reason. What's the big deal?

You underestimate the depth of my seething hatred of Fritzler

[Xylthixlm]

@Xyl: Can you explain your vote on Papa, I'm not getting it; shouldn't you be votingDizzy?

Expressing confusion is scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

After all these bouncy, hyperactive, drug-driven posts that Lamont has been making, I STILL have to give a reason?

He's acting like a crackhead. There! That's my reason.

Something does seem off there

vote: Lamont_Cranston

[Xylthixlm]

sorry mod

unvote Papa Zito, vote Lamont_Cranston

[Xylthixlm]

Lamont: Reading is tech. Dizzy's vote is annoying but not scummy.

@Xyl: Can you explain your vote on Papa, I'm not getting it; shouldn't you be votingDizzy?

Expressing confusion is scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

Saying "expressing confusion is scummy" to not explain one's vote is scummy. I don't like your Papa vote, explain it.

Townies are normally confused at the start of the game, scum are more surprised when they're confused. Good enough tell for a first vote

[Xylthixlm]

Can you provide some meta why you would make such a joke?

No. Other than the fact that my role is so plain.

Argh, and I wanted to kill Papa.

unvote
vote: Kise

I wanted to kill Lamont

unvote, vote: Kise

[Xylthixlm]

Papa Zito: I was taught in a hidden temple by master Mafia monks. There, they passed on to me a thousand years of secret Mafia techniques, including all of the 1080 possible scumtells. I have sworn an oath not to reveal this information in its entirety to another, and can only pass it on one tell at a time, and only while playing Mafia.

Or, you know, they might just be things I've noticed scum tend to do. Pick whichever story works for you.

As for Lamont he's starting to feel townier, but that may be because he's sucking up to me.

[Xylthixlm]

Papa Zito: I'm not going to comment on every single thing anyone does that could possibly be a scumtell.

Also, you didn't really answer my question on Lamont. What made you feel he needed to be lynched in the first place?

Gut.

[Xylthixlm]

No. Go bother someone else. You're trying to get me to dig a hole for myself, and I'm not following that.

Yes, you are. You're digging like a miner on speed.

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

The Zito/Lamont interaction is almost too blatant to be mafia. Almost.

[Xylthixlm]

Kise -

Jester speculation
Unprovoked vanilla softclaim
Repudiates softclaim, claims even-night cop
"Why me" tell

*twitch*

Vote stays.

[Xylthixlm]

Not convinced, nor do I think we're going to get another lynch going by 10pm.

We have a whole week left.

[Xylthixlm]

If you think you've got a case with me, just say it. If you've got a hard-on for a mislynch so bad, then if I get lynched and flip town, why don't you volunteer to be lynched next for advocating a mistake that you had so much belief in? If you're so confident that you know who's scum, then I must tell you that you're a terrible scumhunter.

Trying to set up tomorrow's lynch if you die today is not a townie thing to do.

Disagree, I've seen townies do that as well as scum. It's stupid because they're usually wrong, but it's not a good scumtell.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyone else not like BC looking for a claim so quickly? I feel like he was rushing the lynch. We do have a week still.

Scum love soft claims, but they hate being forced into a full claim. Forcing the full claim after a soft claim is almost always the right move.

[Xylthixlm]

Kise may very well be a townie role, but he's playing like scum.

Last time I saw a claimed cop playing this scummy I thought "If he comes up town I'm going to write an essay on why you shouldn't play cop as a scum role." But I didn't write the essay, because he came up scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Is there anything that isn't scumtell?

Try scumhunting.

[Xylthixlm]

xRECKONERx: Do you believe Kise's claim?

[Xylthixlm]

Papa Zito and xRECKONERx need to get their votes back on the obvious scum

[Xylthixlm]

And DizzyIzzy, your vote should clearly be on Kise

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus: I'm not seeing the Kise-cateraction link, really. xRECKONERx's unvote of Kise while calling him "scummy" is much more suspicious.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm blind, I misread that post lamont quoted. I thought it was before the claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus: I'm not seeing the Kise-cateraction link, really. xRECKONERx's unvote of Kise while calling him "scummy" is much more suspicious.

No, i see a link as well with Cater-Kise. Just never pursued it that much. I think that Phoebus summed up my concerns towards him pretty well. Are you thinking of maybe a scum Trio there?

3 scum + an SK would be normal for a game this size

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM, picture this:

A scum decides he should breadcrumb vanilla to support his claim later.
Someone catches the breadcrumb and starts pushing.
The scum panics and thinks that his vanilla claim won't be enough to stop his lynch, so he changes his claim to a weak power role.

Sound familiar?

There's a reason "lynch all liars" is a good rule of thumb.

[Xylthixlm]

I fail to see how a vanilla townie breadcrumb is scummy. Stephoscope did it in a game that I recently saw, a Large Theme game, Saving Nasubi. It worked brilliantly; all other vanillas (well, most) instantly knew who he was.

I haven't read that game, but I'm going to take a wild-ass guess and say that Stephoscope's breadcrumb included something from the vanilla role PM that only a vanilla townie would know.

[Xylthixlm]

By my count he's at L-1. Also, self-voters must die.

[Xylthixlm]

If that was the hammer, then I'll be irritated.

inHimshallibe: 2 posts
lazarusmoth: 2 posts
Lowell: 1 post

This shouldn't have been allowed to happen.

Mod: Vote count plz

Grrr, lurkers.

unvote

until everyone has posted content.

[Xylthixlm]

So what do you guys think? Overly emotional townie with a power role? Or pissed-off found-out scum?

I've seen rants like that from both, but his earlier play is way too scummy to let pass. If he's not scum he's a complete VI. "I'm just a townie, no I'm an odd-night cop, no I'm a full cop, vote: myself"? Seriously?

[Xylthixlm]

My gut says DizzyIzzy and Lamont_Cranston are town.

[Xylthixlm]

3.

Townies are normally confused at the start of the game, scum are more surprised when they're confused. Good enough tell for a first vote

What? He states that expressing confusion is scummy, then says that townies normally ARE confused? What? What what what what what?

Please engage your brain and read that again. The key word is

expressing

.

[Xylthixlm]

If townies are normally confused at the start of the game, then they will

find that unremarkable and not mention it

. Whereas scum will find it unusual, and they'll want to emphasize it to seem more town, so they point it out.

[Xylthixlm]

I should also note that you're making an awfully big deal over what was essentially an excuse for a page 1 random vote.

[Xylthixlm]

Speaking of scumhunting: Kise, your thoughts on every player in the game, please.

[Xylthixlm]

Wow.

That's the scummiest list I've ever seen. He's not even

pretending

to scumhunt.

I hope there's nobody who still thinks he might be town after that post.

[Xylthixlm]

Lamont, while I agree that LAL is often a good guide for the town, I've never seen any scum play this bad. It's too blatant and frantic. I've seen two townies play like this, but never scum.

I want everyone on the Kise wagon to tell why they are still on it.

Read his thoughts on everyone in the game and tell me what you think about them.

[Xylthixlm]

If Kise flips scum, I will be voting cateraction tomorrow.

[Xylthixlm]

Care to explain why?

Phoebus's case, plus now you're defending Kise with "too scummy to be scum". Your apparent belief in Kise's townieness is frankly inexplicable.

[Xylthixlm]

If Kise is scum, he's getting bussed hard--i'd be surprised if he isn't. Those he's asking to vote 4 him might b potential partners.

Explain.

[Xylthixlm]

Rhinox needs to get in here and post something so I can hammer Kise.

[Xylthixlm]

Kise is clearly scum and needs to die. cateraction looks scummy for defending him. sam.samhorn just looks scummy. Lamont_Cranston and DizzyIzzy look town.

More analysis tomorrow when we know Kise's alignment - some of the interactions will look different depending on if he's mafia vs unaligned scum or town.

[Xylthixlm]

If I haven't lost count, that was the hammer.

[Xylthixlm]

I say we nuke EpicMafia from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

[Xylthixlm]

Rereading consonantM's post 261 with Kise's alignment in mind makes me feel better about consonantM, but I can't put my finger on why. I think it's the end of the post, where he talks about bussing.

cateraction, at which point did your gut scum read in post 212 change to your apparent certainty in Kise's townieness in post 253, and why?

[Xylthixlm]

Kise

: 8 (inHimshallibe,

Lamont_Cranston, BloodCovenent

, Phoebus, DizzyIzzyB13,

Kise,

lazarusmoth, xRECKONERx)

You should probably count me in there, I only unvoted to give Lowell/whoever replaced him time to post.

Speaking of which, post. Now.

[Xylthixlm]

I think inHim trained at the same secret temple I did. Or he just thinks the same way. He's probably town.

[Xylthixlm]

xRECKONERx: I find that when I'm town, if I leave a bogus argument against me alone, eventually someone else will point out the flaw(s) more convincingly than I could.

[Xylthixlm]

xRECKONERx: Here is where BloodCovenent (dead confirmed town) rebuts your argument against me.

[Xylthixlm]

Someone else can defend you better than yourself?

Absolutely. Even if I said the exact same thing, you wouldn't believe it coming from me.

[Xylthixlm]

Based on the assumptions that Pap Zito used his one shot vig on night one, that there are no more than two one-shot vigs in the game and that there is only one scum group, Papa Zito a) killed BC and b) was the skum NK. We should be focusing our attention on Papa Zito's posts to be looking for a reason why he was the target.

Add this post to things I don't like about izzy's play in this game... Trying to figure out WHY someone was nked pretty much never leads to catching scum, and ends up being nothing more than WIFOM.

Actually, it's sometimes useful as one more data point to support a case. I'd never use kill speculation as the only reason to suspect someone though.

Also, Izzy's post you quoted makes me think she's probably town.

[Xylthixlm]

Something is weird about sam.samhorn's attack on inHim.

sam: What first made you think inHim is scum?

[Xylthixlm]

Is this what inhim is doing by not responding?

Ask inHim.

[Xylthixlm]

I agree that Reck is not being pro-town at best, at worst scummy.

He's totally misdirected, but my gut reaction to him feels more like OMGUS rather than him actually being scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

Something is weird about sam.samhorn's attack on inHim.

sam: What first made you think inHim is scum?

Bandwagoning. If you aren't scum, then inHim is, and vice versa.

This seems familiar.

[Xylthixlm]

I would have thought that the implication of my post was obvious - that I'm taking credit for the Lamont_Cranston kill and claiming One Shot Vig.

I wasn't sure if that was deliberate or a slip. Be less subtle.

[Xylthixlm]

If Izzy is lying scum, she must be an SK. And it would take some serious guts to come out and claim one-shot vig there as an SK.

Izzy is town.

[Xylthixlm]

This is nagging at me.

Totally scummy.
Let's just say that I don't like to rehash old cases on people if it's already been said. If what someone says makes sense logically, I'll voice my agreement.

ConsonantM: Which part of this post indicates a "scummy playstyle"?

[Xylthixlm]

I have to disagree with ConsonantM here. If you really think that you or someone else has already made a case perfectly, and there's nothing original you can add, a simple "I agree" is enough.

[Xylthixlm]

This wagon is bullshit.

Also, why am I not voting?

vote: Sam.samhorn

[Xylthixlm]

Rhinox: You want to be voting lazarusmoth, not reckoner.

vote: kise

...

So there's my vote. It's a good lesson for me to read and analyze every post on this thread instead of reacting to first impressions.

One of the other things I've flagged as scummy is this:
inHim - Implies he wanted to go with Papa, but Kise is better. Votes Kise.
Xyl - Implies he wanted to go with Lamont, but Kise is better. Votes Kise.
Lamont - goes back to Kise after saying the not-so-soft claiming vanilla has disturbed the hunting dynamic. Votes Kise.

All consecutive votes. There has got to be scum here too.

First he votes Kise. Then, in the same post, he says that one of the people voting Kise has to be scum. This does not make sense. The only possible reason he could find those three votes scummy is that they're consecutive, and that's not a scumtell.

Actually I think I just convinced myself.

unvote, vote lazarusmoth

[Xylthixlm]

The problem with analyzing the Kise wagon is that it had plenty of reasons to have townie support. Scum wouldn't really have a reason to push it, it was going all on its own. There's probably either one or two scum there.

xRECKONERx's hammer was bad. I had already said I was going to hammer and was just waiting for Rhinox to post. reckoner might have been trying to protect Rhinox, but Rhinox doesn't feel scummy.

Possibility xRECKONERx and lazarusmoth are both scum.

inHim better post his defense soon.

[Xylthixlm]

Who are the scum who were doing twisted logic and tunneling?

[Xylthixlm]

The problem with analyzing the Kise wagon is that it had plenty of reasons to have townie support. Scum wouldn't really have a reason to push it, it was going all on its own. There's probably either one or two scum there.

Probably, but that was an awful bandwagon from the beginning. There was virtually no reason for a townie to legitimately think that was a good bandwagon. It had scummy written all over it.

You think Kise was a bad lynch? Seriously? The guy who changed his role claim and refused to scumhunt? I've seen

jesters

act less blatant.

[Xylthixlm]

Hey Izzy, why'd you kill Lamont_Cranston?

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus, post something.

[Xylthixlm]

No way there could be just 2 mafia in a 14-player game. Two mafia and a SK, maybe, but three mafia and a SK is more likely. I think four mafia is too many with or without SK.

Actually, it could be two groups of two. Hmm...

If there's two scumgroups (either two mafias or mafia+sk), then either there was a double kill last night or Izzy is scum. Double kill is reasonably likely. Izzy claiming vig as SK, unlikely. Izzy claiming vig as mafioso... I dunno. Kind of a risky play, although not as risky as doing so as SK. I'll think about that.

[Xylthixlm]

Yeah. There was some funny interaction between Zito and Lamont, but I don't think Zito would have shot him. BloodCovenent is a much more likely Zito-kill.

I'm having a bit of trouble with Izzy killing Lamont, though. I want an explanation of that.

[Xylthixlm]

Not really. We don't know that Zito shot anyone, period. So Izzy could just be fake claiming, since Zito is no longer here to defend whether he shot or not,

but I have a good feeling that ZITO shot Lamont,

not Izzy.

Shit, I definitely meant Zito shot BC, not Lamont. My bad.

So if I change your original quote I get "ZITO shot BC, not Izzy." Which still doesn't make sense, since Izzy didn't claim to shoot BC.

Doesn't fly.

unvote, vote xRECKONERx

[Xylthixlm]

If scum killed Lamont, who killed Papa Zito?

[Xylthixlm]

As a response to xyl's vote, I was remarking on the speed and consecutive BW posting of the involved parties.

I haven't really read anything that could dislodge me from my current vote.

Kise had just said something

incredibly scummy

. That's the reason for the three quick votes.

Besides "bandwagoning" is there any other reason for your vote on inHim?

[Xylthixlm]

This is silly.

inHim, if you don't claim in you next post

I

am going to hammer you.

[Xylthixlm]

That has interesting implications.

Reading inHim to see if he dropped a hint during the Zito discussion.

[Xylthixlm]

Not really. We don't know that Zito shot anyone, period. So Izzy could just be fake claiming, since Zito is no longer here to defend whether he shot or not,

but I have a good feeling that ZITO shot Lamont,

not Izzy.

I very highly doubt this.

Shit, I definitely meant Zito shot BC, not Lamont. My bad.

And I also very seriously doubt this.

Is this it? You meant that you don't think Zito shot anyone? Hmm, not how I read that the first time, but I see it now.

[Xylthixlm]

I think xRECKONERx is scum who accidentally dropped that he shot BC.

[Xylthixlm]

Vigs please take care of our Reckoner problem.

inHim, why "vigs"?

[Xylthixlm]

Why did dizzy claim one-shot vig? Did I skip reading anything?

Information. Since I'm only a one shot vig and I used up my shot, I'm no longer a power-role and thus outing myself and my target benefits the town.

You still haven't answered why you shot Lamont.

[Xylthixlm]

If we believe inHim's claim, does this lock us into believing there's a mafia and an SK or two mafia groups? Is there any possibility of there being more than two one shot vigs?

It's possible there's a third one-shot vig. If there is one, and they shot last night, they should claim today - I'm going to be

really

skeptical of any OSV claims later on.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm ready to vote inHim.

Like I mentioned, his unconcern about the wagon was disturbing.
He was quite blasé about being at L-1, took his time to claim.

Yeah, I don't like how resistant he was to make that claim when he was carrying important info - someone could have come along and hammered him impulsively, it's happened before.

Is it possible he's a scum roleblocker in a different scumteam from xRECKONERx? Because I like the xRECKONERx slip theory.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see anyone other than inHim or xRECKONERx getting lynched today. It's highly likely at least one is scum, and either lynch gives us useful info.

Logically, inHim seems like the better lynch. His delayed claim is fishy, he hasn't been contributing much, and even if he comes up town his claim will probably help find scum.

But, my gut says inHim is town and xRECKONERx is scum.

I think I'm going with my gut on this one.

[Xylthixlm]

I honestly think the setup is made for multiple vigs and roleblockers. I think xyl made himself look a little worse by not seeing this.

I considered it, but the presence of a odd-night cop and two vanilla townies in the dead players list is a serious point against.

[Xylthixlm]

It's definitely possible they're both town. Still, the claims raise the chance that at least one of them is scum.

A 0% roleblocker would be a total

bastard

role, because there's no good way to tell that it failed. I don't think OGML would do that.

[Xylthixlm]

I've considered pairing hypotheses in other games, but I have yet to actually see one hold up. Mafia 88 springs to mind - there were two cops, two millers, and two mafias, but other roles were unpaired.

[Xylthixlm]

Remember:

This is an OGML game.
who is known 4 making pairs, if u kno what I mean.

Actually I don't... the other OGML game I've played in was Medieval Mafia, which didn't have pairs. Got a reference?

[Xylthixlm]

Previous OGML-mod games:

Medieval Mafia - One triplet, one pair
Mafia 87 - Two pairs, some unpaired roles
Mini 720 - No pairs
Mini 594 - No pairs

ConsonantM: The partially nightkill immunes were a triplet, and there were multiple unpaired roles as well.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not saying I don't think there will be any pairs. I'm saying that

everything

being paired is really unlikely, and making decisions on that assumption is a mistake.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, I missed 760. Oops.

Pairs of townies or masons don't count. Honestly. I'll give you the two enablers, even though they didn't work exactly the same.

Conclusion: OGML sometimes duplicates roles in a setup, but so far has always included unpaired roles as well.

[Xylthixlm]

Let's not 4get Marathon games as well. It had two cops, and two revealed 'nillas in the first post.

And it also had an unpaired doc.

Your point?

[Xylthixlm]

It further shows evidence that OGML has had rather some # of pairs in games.

I agree. The symmetry theory is still total crap.

[Xylthixlm]

And by "total crap" I mean "I will believe it enough to base decisions on it when all roles are revealed at the end of the game, and not before."

[Xylthixlm]

Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.

If

he comes up town, are you lynching me next?

Dunno, I'll find out tomorrow. Right now, probably not.

[Xylthixlm]

Just to make sure we're on the same page: using games formerly moderated by a mod is not an acceptable way to try and outguess the mod.

I think the fact that OGML likes to include duplicate power roles

is

relevant here. But my primary motivation was to try to counter the symmetrical setup speculation. It's not helpful, particularly not this early in the game.

[Xylthixlm]

Looks like we're going for the "everyone sits around until just before deadline and then rapidly throws together a bandwagon on someone and ignores any information from their reactions because it's too close to deadline to start a bandwagon on someone else" plan.

Get voting, people.

[Xylthixlm]

The main reason that symmetrical setup speculation isn't helpful is that it's extremely probable to be wrong. We have four roles dead and revealed, and three additional claims. Even if you accept all the claims as true - which you shouldn't - there's still nothing to tell the difference between "2 power role A, 2 power role B, 2 power role C" and "2 power role A, 2 power role B, 1 power role C, 1 power role D". The evidence is equally good for both, but the latter case is a priori more likely - symmetrical setups just don't happen that often. So even if all the claims are true, we're still unlikely to be in a symmetrical setup.

Of course, it's highly likely at least one of the power role claims is false. Given any three random players, there's a 51% to 67% chance at least one of them is scum (depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum). The fact that two of them were scummy enough to force to a claim, and all three claimed power roles, just makes that even more likely. One of the power role claims being false would make the evidence for a symmetrical setup

even weaker

.

In mafia 88, the evidence of a symmetrical setup was

at least

as good as this after

two-thirds

of the players had died. And it wasn't a symmetrical setup, it just had a couple of duplicated roles.

Finally, if you

do

believe in a symmetrical setup and use it to clear people, it becomes a form of circular reasoning. "I believe both inHimshallibe and xRECKONERx are telling the truth about their claims, which suggests we're in a symmetrical setup, which would mean that both inHimshalibe and xRECKONERx are telling the truth about their claims."

Seriously. Symmetrical setups aren't worth considering.

[Xylthixlm]

You're claiming meta because it's "unlikely" to happen.

I'm claiming meta based on my old experiences and my own actions as mod.

I'm not sure what you mean "claiming meta".

I don't wish to lynch a claimed pair yet, especially with the remaining one shots/specific night roles revealed.

Do you think that having the same role claim makes either of them

less

likely to be scum?

I get the feeling you're trying to stall discussion Xyl - any speculation after N1 - whether correct or not - is helpful.
Why stamp it out?

No, I'm trying to redirect discussion to useful topics like picking a lynch.

You say "any speculation is helpful". Does that include jester speculation and cult speculation?

And yes cateraction, that's exactly why I'm voting him.

I'm also uncomfortable with the way I'm "being told" what to do - i.e. voting reckoner

Would you like to persuade me to change my mind?
Rather than tell me to?

Read xRECKONERx and tell me what you see.

[Xylthixlm]

lol ignoring my post

I hope you're not expecting me to respond individually to every post in the game

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus, any thoughts on people other than me and inHim?

[Xylthixlm]

Same exact question to sam.samhorn too.

[Xylthixlm]

It's definitely possible they're both town. Still, the claims raise the chance that at least one of them is scum.

A 0% roleblocker would be a total

bastard

role, because there's no good way to tell that it failed. I don't think OGML would do that.

But 2 50% RBs would be possible, correct? That was the point I was trying to make.

I've gotten the impression that random roles are unusual here. And a 50% RB is still a bastard role for the same reason a 0% RB is.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP: Also, there is the very real possibility that we are looking for 2 serial killers.

In the above case, I still like Xyl as the first lynch.

2 SKs and 2 one-shot vigs, and a mafia? Seriously?

(If you mean "just two SKs" then I couldn't be one of them unless xRECKONERx is lying, and you wouldn't be voting me.)

[Xylthixlm]

I still like a reckoner lynch better than an inHim lynch, but inHim is starting to make me nervous. That's the second clear mistake he's made (the first was not claiming earlier).

[Xylthixlm]

Current Deadline:

Saturday June 13th, 10 PM Eastern

Less than 25 hours to deadline, people. If this is like Medieval Mafia then deadline hitting means no lynch. I will consider anyone not voting at deadline to have been voting "no lynch" and demand explanations accordingly. Get voting.

[Xylthixlm]

Under 11 hours.

I could support either inHim or reckoner, but I definitely prefer reckoner.

[Xylthixlm]

8 hours.

unvote, vote inHim

[Xylthixlm]

inHim: xRECKONERx isn't getting traction. I don't think Phoebus will get traction by deadline. I'm not going to support my own lynch, and no lynch is bad for all sorts of reasons. That leaves you. You're not obviously protown, and if you

do

come up town it will prove Papa Zito was blocked, which will clarify the setup a lot.

[Xylthixlm]

Approaching deadlines make me cynical and calculating.

[Xylthixlm]

Under 2.5 hours.

Not optimistic here.

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus: I was saying "OGML is known for paired roles, but assuming

all

roles will be paired is stupid".

[Xylthixlm]

I'm kicking myself for not beating the "no lynch at deadline" drum sooner.

[Xylthixlm]

The fact that Rhinox came up

Brooklyn

Mafia rather than just plain Mafia strongly suggests that there are two mafias.

Anyone know what an Encryptor is?

xRECKONERx, who did you block last night?

This post by inHim may be important:

I've evaluated the Kise wagon.

Pretty sure Xyl is scum. Phoebus looking bad, too.

Cater is a GG.

BGs, in the order I'd lynch them

Xyl
lazarusmoth
Phoebus
Rhinox
ConsonantM

Obviously I don't think all 5 are scum, but if there are 4 scum in this game, I'd bet a lot that these guys are it. sam gets a pass on gut.

If there are only 3 scum, sam may go back on the list.

unvote
vote: Xylthixlm

We know Rhinox was scum, and presumably from the group that killed inHim. He was on inHim's list. It seems likely his scumbuddy was also on the list.

Rhinox's death makes xRECKONERx look a little bit worse. It's possible reck is on the other scumteam and killed Rhinox. Otherwise I'd look for someone who likes to kill lurkers as scum...

PREVIEW EDIT: inHim's coming up scum shows that Kise was blocked. There were three kills night 1, so for Dizzy to be scum there would need to be three scumteams (two mafias + SK?) or an unclaimed vig.

[Xylthixlm]

I meant "inHim's coming up town". Oops.

Also, I would have been on the D1 Kise lynch except I unvoted to give people more time to post and then

someone

hammered before Rhinox had made a single post, who could that be, oh look it's xRECKONERx!

[Xylthixlm]

Yes I meant Zito was blocked, not Kise.

I should probably spend more time on these posts rather than dashing them out in a few minutes while I'm busy at work, but meh.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't know why people are saying I "sat on inHim" or "kept my vote on inHim". I was voting xRECKONERx most of yesterday. I flipped to inHim less than a day from deadline in a last-minute desperate attempt to avoid nolynch.

xRECKONERx moves from scum to neutral; his actions at the end of the day yesterday were good.

I still maintain that symmetrical setup speculation is unhelpful. It simply can't be proven or disproven until near the end of the game. OGML has a history of setups with both paired and unpaired roles together, so seeing one or two power roles in pairs should

not

lead you to assume that all roles are paired!

cateraction seems town but I don't remember why. sam.samhorn gives me gut town read. Izzy is almost confirmed by claim. Most likely scum is now in (xRECKONERx, ConsonantM, lazarusmoth, Phoebus). I think I need to take a closer look at Phoebus.

xRECKONERx, why do you want to lynch the person you blocked? There were 2 kills, so your block reduces the chance Phoebus is scum.

[Xylthixlm]

But there's still a chance that Phoebus would have made the kill. Without the block there are 3 possibilities:

Phoebus is scum and made the kill
Phoebus is scum and didn't make the kill
Phoebus isn't scum

Assume for this argument that you think that Phoebus has a 40% chance of being scum, and a 50% chance of making the nightkill if scum. That makes the probabilities

20% Phoebus is scum and made the kill
20% Phoebus is scum and didn't make the kill
60% Phoebus isn't scum

Now, eliminate the second possibility, and update the probability using Bayes's Formula, and you get

25% Phoebus is scum and made the kill
75% Phoebus isn't scum

See? The chance of Phoebus being scum goes down a lot. It's not conclusive, but it should definitely factor into your thinking.

Of course if there are actually 3 killers left alive this goes out the window, so factor the chance of that in, too.

[Xylthixlm]

Bayes's Formula. It's Math.

Imagine I put two red cards and three black cards face down, shuffle them, and select one. The odds of the card I selected being red are 2 in 5, right?

Now imagine I flip one of the

other

cards over, and it's red. What's the chance of the card I selected being red now (based on what you know)? It's 1 in 4.

The card I selected didn't change, but the information you had did: because I revealed that it

wasn't

one of the two red cards, the chance of it being a red card at all went down.

The same logic applies to Phoebus. You know that he

wasn't

scum who killed last night, so the chance of him being scum at all goes down.

[Xylthixlm]

1) I was waiting for everyone in the game to post, Rhinox was last

2) It's a valid point, even if the conclusion is wrong. See Lynch All Lurkers where elvis_knits nearly lynched me because I'd been on every townie lynch but

not

the really obvious zwet-scum lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

1) Mafia is a psychological game and if you're trying to fuse logical mathematic forumlas into the game

you're going to get proven wrong a whole bunch

because mafia is about gambits and WIFOM and deception! These formulas can be cracked with ease that's all I'm saying. Get your shitty case out of here.

So are you saying we should just ignore all evidence that isn't 100% reliable?

[Xylthixlm]

40% - where'd that number get pulled out of?

I needed a number to do the example. I like 40%. You can run the example with any other numbers and the percent still goes down, try it.

[Xylthixlm]

I mean, the important thing isn't the numbers. The numbers are arbitrary and pulled out of a hat. The important thing is that, whatever you think the chance of Phoebus being scum is based on what you know, adding the claim that he was blocked and there was (apparently) still a scum kill lowers that chance. Exactly how much lower depends on your assumptions, but it's always lower.

So yeah. If you think that Phoebus is far more scummy than anyone else, you should still vote him. But if you think he's just a little scummier than someone else, you shouldn't, because there's role info leaning in his favor.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not softclaiming anything.

[Xylthixlm]

Both lazarusmoth and Phoebus look scummy here. It feels like there's a connection between xRECKONERx and Rhinox but I'm not sure why. ConsonantM seems to be agreeing with sam.samhorn and inHim on laz/Phoe.

vote: lazarusmoth

[Xylthixlm]

But if you think he's just a little scummier than someone else, you shouldn't, because there's role info leaning in his favor.

That's not softclaiming?

You claimed you blocked him!

And it looks like there was still a scum kill. That's role info in his favor. Stop acting like you don't believe your own claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Now we're cookin'.

As I doubt that there are two town-aligned roleblockers, this looks like a good break for everyone. I'm going to take a good look at reck's and inhim's posts, and I suggest everyone do the same.

Reckoner - Townie. There's no reason for him to cc town-aligned roleblocker when he can claim an easier role if he were scum. I also see a point to the whole paired-roles symmetry setup with a mafia member being revealed specifically as Brooklyn Mafia, so I believe in his existence as another roleblocker.

lazurus, why the flip here? Just because Rhinox came up Brooklyn Mafia, or is there something more?

[Xylthixlm]

I think Reckoner is semi-cleared in my mind for voting for Rhinox when there was clearly as decent wagon going on who we now know was a mislynch (inhim).

Wait, what? Reckoner never voted Rhinox. In fact reck didn't even mention Rhinox once until after Rhinox was dead.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think me blocking Phoebus means he is any less of a likely scum.

Then you're wrong, and should think about it until you understand why.

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus is scum and made the kill: Possible before, not possible after.
Phoebus's is scum and his partner made the kill: Still possible.
Phoebus is actually town: Still possible.

You eliminate some possible states where Phoebus is scum, and no states where Phoebus is town.

[Xylthixlm]

This is really closely related to a probability puzzle.

I flipped a coin twice, and got tails at least once. What's the chance that the first flip was heads?

The obvious answer is 1 in 2, but that's wrong. There are four equally likely outcomes when flipping a coin twice:

Heads then heads
Heads then tails
Tails then heads
Tails then tails

When I tell you that I got at least one tails, that eliminates just the first possibility; the others are still equally likely. Only one of the remaining three possibilities has heads for the first flip. So the chance the first flip was heads is 1 in 3.

Now call the first flip "Phoebus is scum" and the second flip "Phoebus made the nightkill if he's scum", and use a weighted coin.

Yes I sound like a math teacher.

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

But it doesn't change the probability that phoebus is scum. Yes, it eliminates one scenario, but he still has the same chance to be scum as everyone else in this game. Just like when you first flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up head was still 50%. The probability that phoebus got a scum role was around 30% or something like that. That does not change at all.

If I flip a coin, the probability that it's heads is 50%. But if I show you the coin and it's tails, the probability that it's heads becomes 0%. What changed? You gained information about the coin, and that changed the probability.

When I flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up heads was 50%. But when I added the information that at least one of the coins was tails, it went down to 33%.

Phoebus started with a 30% chance of getting a scum role or something like that. But you added the information that he didn't make the night kill last night, and that changes the probability that he's scum.

[Xylthixlm]

These two posts still need answers:

Now we're cookin'.

As I doubt that there are two town-aligned roleblockers, this looks like a good break for everyone. I'm going to take a good look at reck's and inhim's posts, and I suggest everyone do the same.

Reckoner - Townie. There's no reason for him to cc town-aligned roleblocker when he can claim an easier role if he were scum. I also see a point to the whole paired-roles symmetry setup with a mafia member being revealed specifically as Brooklyn Mafia, so I believe in his existence as another roleblocker.

lazurus, why the flip here? Just because Rhinox came up Brooklyn Mafia, or is there something more?

I think Reckoner is semi-cleared in my mind for voting for Rhinox when there was clearly as decent wagon going on who we now know was a mislynch (inhim).

Wait, what? Reckoner never voted Rhinox. In fact reck didn't even mention Rhinox once until after Rhinox was dead.

[Xylthixlm]

I just noticed that sam.samhorn's last three votes have all been Phoebus.

sam, besides Phoebus and me, who else are you suspicious of?

[Xylthixlm]

One of these things is not like the others:

Because he's never a valuable player.

I thought you were a better mafia player than that.

I think he's awful and a poor mafia player

He's awful.

[Xylthixlm]

I just noticed that sam.samhorn's last three votes have all been Phoebus.

sam, besides Phoebus and me, who else are you suspicious of?

Nobody in particular that's significant enough for me to try to create attention at.

unvote, vote sam.samhorn

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus is still my best bet atm

You're not voting.

[Xylthixlm]

About to reread, but before I start, I just want to say xyl is a horrible mafia player, and that his latest vote on sam is basically OMGUS, and nothing else.

Experienced mafia players should be able to decipher in the post I quoted exactly why I think that person's scum.
_________________
#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net

"Xyl is also a great player" -Yosarian2

[Xylthixlm]

If Phoebus is scum, so is xyl. That should be obvious to everyone right now.

Because I understand probability and you and sam.samhorn don't? You can do better than that.

I'm like Adel, I like winning games. If paying more attention to role info than scumtells will lead to winning then I will ignore scumtells. Don't be an asshole and call me a bad player because of it.

[Xylthixlm]

sam.samhorn claims he's not paying enough attention to remember who he's voting, and he calls

me

useless.

Not buying it.

[Xylthixlm]

Just like how with the coin flip, your elimination of a scenario does not change the fact that each coin had a 50% chance of turning up heads. Each person had a around a 30% chance of being scum at the beginning of the game, that percentage never changes.

Thank you for proving that you have no idea what you're talking about. The initial probability of the first coin coming up heads is 50%, but the conditional probability

given that at least one was tails

is 33%. Likewise, the conditional probability that Phoebus is scum

given that xRECKONERx claimed a roleblock on him

is lower than the initial probability.

As for the chance that xRECKONERx is lying scum... yes, it's there. It's pretty easy to take it into account when figuring out the effect of the claim on Phoebus's chance of being scum. It does get a bit hairy if you consider the possibility of xRECKONERx being scum claiming a block on his partner.

I don't want to oversell the value of the role info, but completely ignoring it is even worse.

[Xylthixlm]

Problem: I believe there are 3 scum left. With eight people this means we are in a predicament where ALL townies must vote together for scum or else we will enter a NL and risk losing two townies.

You had me paniced for a moment there. Three nonaligned scum isn't nearly as bad as 3 aligned scum; we can get scum in one group to vote for scum in another.

[Xylthixlm]

It's mathematics

in principle

but mafia is not mathematical.

I agree.

I was trying to make the point that the block is

evidence

against Phoebus being scum. Not that you can solve the game with a mathematical formula.

[Xylthixlm]

Thestatusquo agrees that you're an awful mafia player

So it's you, TSQ and scotmany12 saying I'm awful, vs. Yosarian2 and Mr. Flay who say I'm a great player. I'm not sure what you think repeatedly calling me awful is going to accomplish, but it's certainly not going to convince me and it's probably not going to convince anyone else.

[Xylthixlm]

And you wouldn't be that bad if you didn't have this huge ego where you think you are amazing.

I think you are confusing an aggressive playstyle and a strong stubborn streak for a huge ego.

However, I don't like how sam used his own meta to defend his actions. I just hate it when people do that.

Absolutely agreed. Sam has basically been doing what you accused me of all game, and now he's defending it with meta. If your playstyle is crappy enough that you need to defend it with meta

change your playstyle

.

[Xylthixlm]

scotmany: I guess I didn't do it in Medieval Mafia, assuming you count "BANDWAGON!" as a reason. So how about this post from Lynch All Lurkers. Or this post from the same game.

[Xylthixlm]

What were you in Lynch All Lurker btw?

Town.

[Xylthixlm]

scotmany, go compare sam.samhorn's play in this game to his play in Medieval Mafia. It looks to me like he contributed more in MM than he is here. Policy lynch issues aside, even if he normally doesn't contribute much it's still scummy when he contributes less than usual.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think saying "I don't give a defense or reasons for my votes; it's my playstyle" is a legitimate excuse.

Generally I give reasons sometime after I make my initial vote. Would you like me to go into detail on why I'm voting for Phoebus?

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

Tonight or

tomorrow

? Deadline is two days from tonight. You knew this game would have short deadlines and high activity requirements when you signed up.

[Xylthixlm]

@cateraction:

I don't believe this. Even if he is telling the truth (unlikely) it's still not an enormously useful role. It's too easy a scum claim. I still advocate for his lynch.

I didn't catch this before; but you said even if he was telling the truth about being a RB, you'd still advocate his lynch. How is lynching a town role EVER EVER EVER a good thing?

Read that again. He didn't say that he'd still advocate the lynch even if inHim was telling the truth.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm still waiting for someone to make an amazing compelling case for why Phoebus is scummier than sam.samhorn or lazarusmoth. I see some scumminess, but not enough to make him worth lynching.

[Xylthixlm]

ConM - Townie.

His above-and-beyond research in determining a metagame pattern to the mod working on symmetrical roles strikes me as a hard-working townie.

He also did not believe in a reck or inhim lynch. I'd like to know about his setup observations though as he claimed to be able to narrow it down after N2.

Xyl - Confusing read. He has rang some scum alarms in early game with a lot of vote-flipping. Also, he actively tried to derail a symmetrical setup theory (which in my view is proven as right more than not) and kept his vote on inHim. But he also reads as townie because Reck roleblocked him but mafia seems to still have nightkilled (and I'm working on the symmetry assumption that there are 2 groups). Also, his constant drumbeating on the lynch deadline reads as townie as well. Not sure with him at all.

I actually dredged through every OGML-modded game game on the symmetrical roles issue here (I did miss one). For some reason lazarusmoth counts work as a reason to call ConM town, but ignores it for me. I also don't get how not being on reck/inHim is a towntell. It seems like lazarusmoth stretched for reasons for his read on ConM here.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote

sam.samhorn's argument makes sense. I need to do some thinking here.

Agreed that xRECKONERx has been startlingly town recently.

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus is definitely better than no lynch.

vote: Phoebus

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, wtf xyl. Goddamnit. I never get to hammer...

So hammer before I do, then.

[Xylthixlm]

No lynch is normally the right play with 6 alive and probably 1 scum, but the presence of a roleblocker muddies things. If reckoner gets a correct roleblock, then we'll get an extra lynch; no lynch would throw that away.

[Xylthixlm]

If we're going to no lynch, we should avoid too much discussion beforehand. No sense giving the scum extra info to decide their kill.

[Xylthixlm]

I'll vote no lynch after ConsonantM and lazaruthmoth say something.

[Xylthixlm]

The least we discuss today the better it is. You guys just have to trust me.

I agree.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: No Lynch

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM, in your experience, do scum usually vote together?

[Xylthixlm]

This actually brings to mind Lynch All Lurkers (see discussion starting here), where two of the scum kept voting together, but there were also three pairs of townies who kept voting together.

Anyways, let's shut up if we're no lynching, k?

[Xylthixlm]

Um. What? If sam had another Bronx Mafia partner, then they would've successfully completed the kill.

In most games, mafia have to pick one member to do the killing. If that player is blocked, the kill is blocked.

[Xylthixlm]

xRECKONERx: Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it looks like you've mostly played newbie games? Scum generally don't have to choose who kills in newbie games, because the setup is open and includes no roles that care about which scum makes the kill.

Anyways, someone hammer nolynch already.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm thinking lazarusmoth is the last scum. Cop results would be nice though.

[Xylthixlm]

How about a mass cop/not-cop claim.

[Xylthixlm]

No even night cop? That's really odd.

Just in case, let's do the claim.

I am not a cop.

lazarusmoth is next.

[Xylthixlm]

Laz is VLA due to hospitalization until the 15th, so we'll just skip him, I guess.

I'm not the cop.

The deadline is the 15th. I don't want to lynch before lazarusmoth claims cop/not cop, I'm worried about a possible mislynch followed by fake-cop-claim in lylo. We might need a replacement.

[Xylthixlm]

Right now what we really need from you is a cop/not-cop claim.

[Xylthixlm]

I am the even night cop. Night 2 I investigated imhisibaby.N4 I investigated Xyl. I found that he is SCUM! He is the last member of the Brooklyn mafia. So after we lynch him, we win.

vote: xyl

Yep, he's lying. You realize that you're completely screwed - even if you get me lynched, it will prove your lie and you'll be lynched tomorrow. Town wins.

vote: Pyromaniac

[Xylthixlm]

There could still be another scum out there. I'd rather lynch Pyro first.

And

this

is why I didn't want lazarusmoth going last, so he wouldn't know the coast was clear to fakeclaim cop. Damnit cateraction.

[Xylthixlm]

If I do get lynched, I'd like you to remember that Pyromaniac is totally 100% lying and cannot possibly have the results he says he has. Lynch him tomorrow, don't let him argue his way out under any circumstances. I want town to win this.

[Xylthixlm]

Cater, do you really think that las would have voted Kise if he was even-night cop himself? Really?

[Xylthixlm]

Mass claim or not? Re-reading the last few pages.

If laz was a cop with a guilty result why would he even consider not claiming? Any guesses?

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM: I think there should be just one scum left, in which case town wins guaranteed no matter who we lynch. However, on the off chance that there is a second scum, I'd rather lynch Pyro first.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP: no matter who we lynch between me or Pyro.

[Xylthixlm]

There is a vague possibility that there are 3 scum left. He could have thought that was true. I don't really, though I suppose it could be.

There could be 2 scum left. You are ignoring the possibility of an SK.

[Xylthixlm]

!!!!

Two dead mafiosos in one group, one dead mafia power role in another.

Could the mafias be different sizes, with two power roles in one and three mafiosos in the other?

[Xylthixlm]

Really, conso, we have a guilty from a claimed cop.

That doesn't mean you have to believe him. Normally you lynch the claimed guilty first because that way the cop gets another inspect the next night, but with a claimed even-night cop at five players, there's no way laz/Pyro is getting another inspect anyways, so there's no role reason to lynch one or the other of us. If there's one scum left it doesn't matter who you lynch first, but if there are two scum left and you lynch me then it's still possible to lose tomorrow even though you'll know for sure that Pyro is scum. If there's three scum left we're pretty much screwed already, but I just don't see three scummy people here.

[Xylthixlm]

Of course you're going to argue to lynch laz first, it's in your self interest. He's going to argue to lynch you first. I really don't care either way. I'm inclined to believe that we have a cop, because of Kise' role, but others may not be. So, everyone should vote xyl or laz right now and which ever way the majority goes, so be it.

Well honestly it probably doesn't matter which of us gets lynched, but I'd rather play it safe if possible.

You

really

think that there are two cops? Did you even look at the things I pointed out?

[Xylthixlm]

By the way I have to admit to an ulterior motive here: I've never been lynched as town yet, and I don't want this to be my first time.

[Xylthixlm]

You could say that about every game.

This is the first time it's actually gotten close. I guess I should be happy that it took a fake cop result, but still.

[Xylthixlm]

Maybe laz, for some reason, think there are 3 scum left. If that is the case then if we lynch bronx we lose.

Are you bronx mafia?

[Xylthixlm]

No.

Really? Because I can read that as you hinting that you're Bronx Mafia and if the town lynches you we lose.

[Xylthixlm]

I have a wacky theory.

Pyromaniac is the last

Bronx

mafia. He's assuming that because there are three people on his scumteam, there are three people on the other scumteam, too. So he fakeclaimed cop and faked a guilty result, hoping that he would hit one of the other team's scum. They would get lynched and come up scum, and he'd coast through the last day (assuming he didn't get shot by the remaining Brooklyn mafia). That explains why he would fake a guilty when it seems like it just results in him getting counterlynched the next day, and why he would make that bizarre comment about three scum and not lynching the last Bronx mafia. Of course, he picked totally wrong for his fake guilty, but he doesn't know that. (Or maybe he does, given how he's pretty much stopped posting - you think he'd be trying to make a case on me here if he could.)

If I'm right here, then there's two possibilities. Either there really are two Brooklyn mafia alive (ConsonantM and cateraction), or the scumteams are uneven and just one of them is scum. I'm thinking uneven scumteams is more likely, I just don't see both of ConsonantM and cateraction as scum. If there

are

two Brooklyn scum left we have to lynch one of them and then hope a scum gets nightkilled. If there's only one left (probably cateraction), we can lynch Pyro - who is 100% scum, at least from my POV - today and then lynch the last scum tomorrow.

Of course, if this whole wacky theory is wrong and Pyro is Brooklyn mafia, we can either lynch Pyro today and win, or lynch anyone today and then Pyro tomorrow.

[Xylthixlm]

If cateraction and ConsonantM were scum together they would have hammered by now, so I think we can rule that out.

Lynch Pyro.

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM, see my sig:

"We should strive to make an informed decision based on the best evidence, and then act accordingly, even though the best evidence will never guarantee certainty."

[Xylthixlm]

No.

Really? Because I can read that as you hinting that you're Bronx Mafia and if the town lynches you we lose.

No. That is my only reason that laz could possible withhold a guilty. Also, inhim was a town power role that was probably not going to get protection. So they would have NKed to get us to suspect reckoner.

cateraction, what do you think of this post?

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM, I don't think it even crossed my mind that I might actually be lynched there.

[Xylthixlm]

I take it you aren't both scum, then.

[Xylthixlm]

cateraction, you had exactly

zero

interaction with Rhinox days one and two. In fact, your only mention of him all game was one post at the beginning of day 3. Why?

I see some Rhinox/ConsonantM interaction here.

[Xylthixlm]

Also zero lowell interaction.

[Xylthixlm]

The fact that Rhinox came up

Brooklyn

Mafia rather than just plain Mafia strongly suggests that there are two mafias.

Anyone know what an Encryptor is?

xRECKONERx, who did you block last night?

This post by inHim may be important:

I've evaluated the Kise wagon.

Pretty sure Xyl is scum. Phoebus looking bad, too.

Cater is a GG.

BGs, in the order I'd lynch them

Xyl
lazarusmoth
Phoebus
Rhinox
ConsonantM

Obviously I don't think all 5 are scum, but if there are 4 scum in this game, I'd bet a lot that these guys are it. sam gets a pass on gut.

If there are only 3 scum, sam may go back on the list.

unvote
vote: Xylthixlm

We know Rhinox was scum, and presumably from the group that killed inHim. He was on inHim's list. It seems likely his scumbuddy was also on the list.

Rhinox's death makes xRECKONERx look a little bit worse. It's possible reck is on the other scumteam and killed Rhinox. Otherwise I'd look for someone who likes to kill lurkers as scum...

PREVIEW EDIT: inHim's coming up scum shows that Kise was blocked. There were three kills night 1, so for Dizzy to be scum there would need to be three scumteams (two mafias + SK?) or an unclaimed vig.

Hmm, saw this post while rereading. That list is interesting...

Xyl -

town

lazarusmoth -

bronx scum

Phoebus -

bronx scum

Rhinox -

brooklyn scum

ConsonantM - ???

I need a closer look at ConsonantM. If inHim got 4/5 (or 5/6, if you include sam.samhorn) I'm going to be totally amazed.

[Xylthixlm]

This would seem to indicate that Cateraction wouldnt kill BC--y kill the person ur voting 4? Doesnt make much tactical sense; scum want 2 vote 4 scummy pro-town players. If Cateraction thought BC was scummy, then BC would b some1 2 keep alive in order 2 lynch them.

inHimshallibe: 2 (lazarusmoth, Xylthixlm)

[Xylthixlm]

BTW: Rhinox was not voting because he

hadn't posted yet

. I was not voting because I was waiting for Rhinox to post before hammering. If you want to call me scummy for something about that, call me scummy for waiting for Rhinox. But saying that I was voting with him a lot, because we were both not voting, is bullshit.

[Xylthixlm]

How suspicious do you consider a complete lack of interaction?

[Xylthixlm]

ConsonantM, you read Lynch All Lurkers, right? How would you compare my play here to my play in that game?

[Xylthixlm]

Funny, how u've practically been ignoring me all game, yet suddenly have this suspicion of me. This is exactly the attitude i expect from the last scum--

This little nagging voice is telling me that ConsonantM is trying to manipulate me here.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylth, who do you think is the last scum?

Probably you, but inHim's list and that post I quoted are giving me pause.

Strange question: which death surprised you most and why?