Mafia 95 - Quick & Dirty - Game Over!

[Phoebus]

xRECKONERx

I just read your posts all by themselves.

You went from claiming roleblocker, to town-aligned role blocker and are now using the term - Town Roleblocker once the mod revealed it.

There are two occasions where you mentioned a scum and mafia-aligned roleblocker.
You have also been on record saying that the idea of two town role blockers seems ludicrous and that if there was one town, then the other would be evil.

Well, we have a town role blocker. Where does that leave you?

I've been reflecting on this whole paired role business.
We've had an ODD NIGHT cop. So his pair should be an EVEN NIGHT cop.

However, we did not have an odd/even night roleblocker. We just had a TOWN roleblocker.

Dizzy is AWOL - so we cannot talk to her more about her supposed vig-ability.

Yet, two one-shot vigilantes seem more probable than two full town role blockers.

In any case, Izzy is away, so she can't be effective scum, even if she IS scum.

Which leaves you and Xylth -

Yesterday, you claim you blocked me.
Well, that's moot because I don't do anything at night.

We have two kills.

The first night we had three kills. With Izzy claiming one of them and also claiming one-shot vig - let's say two are scum kills.

We have two kills again tonight.

You said you found Xylth scummy but did not block him because you wanted to go after an SK?

What roleblocker would randomly switch/NOT TARGET his suspect multiple times (well, at least twice) to ascertain his results?

Please tell me how it makes more sense to target a suspected SK over a suspected Mafia?
One works alone, the other in a group.
If you successfully block one, you can analyze his interactions to glean info.
The other... not so much.

vote:xRECKONERx

[xRECKONERx]

To Phoebus:

I never said the idea of having two town-aligned roleblockers was ludicrous. In fact, I even unvoted inHim under the notion that there WERE two town-aligned roleblockers.

It's also my first time ever being a roleblocker of any sort in a game, so excuse me for that. And it would not have mattered if I had blocked a suspected mafia, because MAFIA HAVE TEAMMATES TO KILL FOR THEM. If I had blocked a SK, then HE CAN NOT KILL ALONE.

Your case = fail.

[sam.samhorn]

xRECKONERx

I just read your posts all by themselves.

You went from claiming roleblocker, to town-aligned role blocker and are now using the term - Town Roleblocker once the mod revealed it.

There are two occasions where you mentioned a scum and mafia-aligned roleblocker.
You have also been on record saying that the idea of two town role blockers seems ludicrous and that if there was one town, then the other would be evil.

Well, we have a town role blocker. Where does that leave you?

I've been reflecting on this whole paired role business.
We've had an ODD NIGHT cop. So his pair should be an EVEN NIGHT cop.

However, we did not have an odd/even night roleblocker. We just had a TOWN roleblocker.

Dizzy is AWOL - so we cannot talk to her more about her supposed vig-ability.

Yet, two one-shot vigilantes seem more probable than two full town role blockers.

In any case, Izzy is away, so she can't be effective scum, even if she IS scum.

Which leaves you and Xylth -

Yesterday, you claim you blocked me.
Well, that's moot because I don't do anything at night.

We have two kills.

The first night we had three kills. With Izzy claiming one of them and also claiming one-shot vig - let's say two are scum kills.

We have two kills again tonight.

You said you found Xylth scummy but did not block him because you wanted to go after an SK?

What roleblocker would randomly switch/NOT TARGET his suspect multiple times (well, at least twice) to ascertain his results?

Please tell me how it makes more sense to target a suspected SK over a suspected Mafia?
One works alone, the other in a group.
If you successfully block one, you can analyze his interactions to glean info.
The other... not so much.

vote:xRECKONERx

Yeah, this case is bad. It's really scummy and reeks of desperation too.

Vote; Phoebus

[sam.samhorn]

Bayes's Formula. It's Math.

Imagine I put two red cards and three black cards face down, shuffle them, and select one. The odds of the card I selected being red are 2 in 5, right?

Now imagine I flip one of the

other

cards over, and it's red. What's the chance of the card I selected being red now (based on what you know)? It's 1 in 4.

The card I selected didn't change, but the information you had did: because I revealed that it

wasn't

one of the two red cards, the chance of it being a red card at all went down.

The same logic applies to Phoebus. You know that he

wasn't

scum who killed last night, so the chance of him being scum at all goes down.

If you're seriously trying to use mathematics and formulas to determine the likelyhood of whether or not scum is town then you're incredibly stupid.

1) Mafia is a psychological game and if you're trying to fuse logical mathematic forumlas into the game

you're going to get proven wrong a whole bunch

because mafia is about gambits and WIFOM and deception! These formulas can be cracked with ease that's all I'm saying. Get your shitty case out of here.
2) The chances that Phoebus is actually scum is probably around 25-30%. That is based off of USUALLY HOW MANY SCUM THERE IS IN A GAME, not due to some red or black cards or whatever you're talking about.

[cateraction]

I agree that Phoebus case is totally contrived.

If there is an even night cop, I suggest that they come forward with a result as it would be better to have that result than to risk waiting till night 4 for another result. Even an innocent result would be very helpful right now.

[sam.samhorn]

I agree that Phoebus case is totally contrived.

If there is an even night cop, I suggest that they come forward with a result as it would be better to have that result than to risk waiting till night 4 for another result. Even an innocent result would be very helpful right now.

And we want to help the mafia plan their kills...why?

[cateraction]

Because that would clear two of the 8 people we have left. Even without a guilty result that still vastly increases the odds of us hitting scum. The mafia might hit them accidently, and besides, they're just another townie tonight. Might as well help the town while they can release info.

[Xylthixlm]

1) Mafia is a psychological game and if you're trying to fuse logical mathematic forumlas into the game

you're going to get proven wrong a whole bunch

because mafia is about gambits and WIFOM and deception! These formulas can be cracked with ease that's all I'm saying. Get your shitty case out of here.

So are you saying we should just ignore all evidence that isn't 100% reliable?

[lazarusmoth]

I said on my last post that my scum list contains sam, phoebus, cateraction, and xyl. Wonder of wonders we get some action that seems to put all 4 of them in the spotlight.

Currently we have this dynamic:

(1)

Xyl

defending

Phoebus

by saying the chance of him being scum goes down because Reckoner blocked him but we still seem to have mafia nightkills. Is Xyl's math contrived and created to shake suspicion off of Phoebus (40% - where'd that number get pulled out of?)

(2)

Sam

and

cateraction

tagteaming and agreeing that Phoebus' last post reeks of scum. (Even if they did not agree on a cop coming forward with investigation results - bit of bussing here?)

I think a vote in this mess's direction have a good chance of netting scum. I'm leaning towards either xyl or phoebus. So let me throw one out in that direction.

vote: phoebus.

He's part of the D1 lynch which contains dead townies and folks which I believe to be townie. He pushes the setup symmetry too much for my taste to try to get a Reckoner lynch when I believe Reck to be townie. His argument that Reck should've gone over a mafia block instead of an SK block does not make sense because , as Reck pointed out, mafia may have 1-2 other members to make the kill.

[Xylthixlm]

40% - where'd that number get pulled out of?

I needed a number to do the example. I like 40%. You can run the example with any other numbers and the percent still goes down, try it.

[Xylthixlm]

I mean, the important thing isn't the numbers. The numbers are arbitrary and pulled out of a hat. The important thing is that, whatever you think the chance of Phoebus being scum is based on what you know, adding the claim that he was blocked and there was (apparently) still a scum kill lowers that chance. Exactly how much lower depends on your assumptions, but it's always lower.

So yeah. If you think that Phoebus is far more scummy than anyone else, you should still vote him. But if you think he's just a little scummier than someone else, you shouldn't, because there's role info leaning in his favor.

[Phoebus]

I fail to be convinced.

did you ever say whom you targeted night one?

having me as a target is far too convenient for last night.

it makes no sense that you would target a suspected SK, instead of a suspected mafia.
makes even less of it when it could've been the remaining cop you were targeting.

no. this is not a claim.

i already said i don't do anything.

even without bayes, mathematically, it's proved it wasn't me.

as far as "MAFIA HAVE TEAMMATES TO KILL FOR THEM" goes - killers get no notification of being blocked. If I had a partner whose kill went through one night, I'd definitely have him go again the next night.
I wouldn't keep switching it around.

So tell me how a roleblocker switching around with suspicions is helpful?

Your - SK acts alone = definite block idea is unimpressive.

Solely for the fact that he DOES work alone and is harder to pick up on.

You called me scummy - on what basis?
Back it up with quotes etc.

[xRECKONERx]

Um. And how is my SK acts alone = definite block idea "unimpressive"?
Also, Xyl, if you're going to fucking softclaim, just finish it and claim, dammit. Jesus H. Christ.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not softclaiming anything.

[Xylthixlm]

Both lazarusmoth and Phoebus look scummy here. It feels like there's a connection between xRECKONERx and Rhinox but I'm not sure why. ConsonantM seems to be agreeing with sam.samhorn and inHim on laz/Phoe.

vote: lazarusmoth

[sam.samhorn]

1) Mafia is a psychological game and if you're trying to fuse logical mathematic forumlas into the game

you're going to get proven wrong a whole bunch

because mafia is about gambits and WIFOM and deception! These formulas can be cracked with ease that's all I'm saying. Get your shitty case out of here.

So are you saying we should just ignore all evidence that isn't 100% reliable?

No evidence is 100% reliable. Using formulaic definitions to determine whether someone is scummy is less reliable than your average scumhunting trait... that's what I meant to say.

[xRECKONERx]

But if you think he's just a little scummier than someone else, you shouldn't, because there's role info leaning in his favor.

That's not softclaiming?

[Xylthixlm]

But if you think he's just a little scummier than someone else, you shouldn't, because there's role info leaning in his favor.

That's not softclaiming?

You claimed you blocked him!

And it looks like there was still a scum kill. That's role info in his favor. Stop acting like you don't believe your own claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Now we're cookin'.

As I doubt that there are two town-aligned roleblockers, this looks like a good break for everyone. I'm going to take a good look at reck's and inhim's posts, and I suggest everyone do the same.

Reckoner - Townie. There's no reason for him to cc town-aligned roleblocker when he can claim an easier role if he were scum. I also see a point to the whole paired-roles symmetry setup with a mafia member being revealed specifically as Brooklyn Mafia, so I believe in his existence as another roleblocker.

lazurus, why the flip here? Just because Rhinox came up Brooklyn Mafia, or is there something more?

[Xylthixlm]

I think Reckoner is semi-cleared in my mind for voting for Rhinox when there was clearly as decent wagon going on who we now know was a mislynch (inhim).

Wait, what? Reckoner never voted Rhinox. In fact reck didn't even mention Rhinox once until after Rhinox was dead.

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah, I don't think I ever voted Rhinox?

I don't think me blocking Phoebus means he is any less of a likely scum. Your math seems flimsy, especially when you consider the fact that EVEN IF I DID BLOCK PHOEBUS and EVEN IF RHINOX WAS HIS PARTNER, Rhinox was still alive at night and could've still made the kill for his team.

All it takes is another person who isn't roleblocked to make my roleblocking useless.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think me blocking Phoebus means he is any less of a likely scum.

Then you're wrong, and should think about it until you understand why.

[xRECKONERx]

Or you could just fucking explain it. Since what I said makes logical since:

Phoebus is scum with Rhinox: Doesn't matter, Rhinox was still alive last night to make the kill.

Phoebus is scum with somebody else: Doesn't matter, the partner is still alive

Phoebus is actually town: Then I stopped a potentially helpful night action

My role info gives NO leniency either way.

[Xylthixlm]

Phoebus is scum and made the kill: Possible before, not possible after.
Phoebus's is scum and his partner made the kill: Still possible.
Phoebus is actually town: Still possible.

You eliminate some possible states where Phoebus is scum, and no states where Phoebus is town.

[Xylthixlm]

This is really closely related to a probability puzzle.

I flipped a coin twice, and got tails at least once. What's the chance that the first flip was heads?

The obvious answer is 1 in 2, but that's wrong. There are four equally likely outcomes when flipping a coin twice:

Heads then heads
Heads then tails
Tails then heads
Tails then tails

When I tell you that I got at least one tails, that eliminates just the first possibility; the others are still equally likely. Only one of the remaining three possibilities has heads for the first flip. So the chance the first flip was heads is 1 in 3.

Now call the first flip "Phoebus is scum" and the second flip "Phoebus made the nightkill if he's scum", and use a weighted coin.

Yes I sound like a math teacher.