Mafia 95 - Quick & Dirty - Game Over!

[Xylthixlm]

Remember:

This is an OGML game.
who is known 4 making pairs, if u kno what I mean.

Actually I don't... the other OGML game I've played in was Medieval Mafia, which didn't have pairs. Got a reference?

[ConsonantM]

That did have pairs, Xyl.

2 Martyrs.
4 Partially NK-immune townies (that's just a larger pair).

Off the top of my head.

I can dig up research on others if need be.

[Xylthixlm]

Previous OGML-mod games:

Medieval Mafia - One triplet, one pair
Mafia 87 - Two pairs, some unpaired roles
Mini 720 - No pairs
Mini 594 - No pairs

ConsonantM: The partially nightkill immunes were a triplet, and there were multiple unpaired roles as well.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not saying I don't think there will be any pairs. I'm saying that

everything

being paired is really unlikely, and making decisions on that assumption is a mistake.

[ConsonantM]

First result i can find:

Mini 760 - Bleach Mafia: Karakura Town

Two townies (albeit one with a latent ability),

Two masons (one a recruiter, one a recruitee),

Two Enablers.

Mafia 87 - New Age Mafia

Two Gravediggers,
Two Trackers.

Medieval Mafia--
4 townies,
Two Martyrs.

(My mistake--i thought there was four nk-immune; i can only see three. )

i'll go on if needed.

[ConsonantM]

Oh, and two roleblockers,
three one-shot vigs,

Would fit with the two-three pairings u can see in those games.

[ConsonantM]

Let's not 4get Marathon games as well. It had two cops, and two revealed 'nillas in the first post.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, I missed 760. Oops.

Pairs of townies or masons don't count. Honestly. I'll give you the two enablers, even though they didn't work exactly the same.

Conclusion: OGML sometimes duplicates roles in a setup, but so far has always included unpaired roles as well.

[Xylthixlm]

Let's not 4get Marathon games as well. It had two cops, and two revealed 'nillas in the first post.

And it also had an unpaired doc.

Your point?

[ConsonantM]

It further shows evidence that OGML has had rather some # of pairs in games.

[Xylthixlm]

It further shows evidence that OGML has had rather some # of pairs in games.

I agree. The symmetry theory is still total crap.

[Xylthixlm]

And by "total crap" I mean "I will believe it enough to base decisions on it when all roles are revealed at the end of the game, and not before."

[ConsonantM]

:/

[Xylthixlm]

Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.

[inHimshallibe]

[quote="Xylthixlm"]Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.[/quote

If

he comes up town, are you lynching me next?


I've re-read most of this thread. I'll post my thoughts in a bit, probably after an interview I have this afternoon.

[inHimshallibe]

Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.

If

he comes up town, are you lynching me next?


I've re-read most of this thread. I'll post my thoughts in a bit, probably after an interview I have this afternoon.

Fixed.

[xRECKONERx]

Lol Xylth. Making decisions for town.

[sam.samhorn]

Conclusion: OGML sometimes duplicates roles in a setup, but so far has always included unpaired roles as well.

Just to make sure we're on the same page: using games formerly moderated by a mod is not an acceptable way to try and outguess the mod.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyways we're lynching xRECKONERx today.

If

he comes up town, are you lynching me next?

Dunno, I'll find out tomorrow. Right now, probably not.

[Xylthixlm]

Just to make sure we're on the same page: using games formerly moderated by a mod is not an acceptable way to try and outguess the mod.

I think the fact that OGML likes to include duplicate power roles

is

relevant here. But my primary motivation was to try to counter the symmetrical setup speculation. It's not helpful, particularly not this early in the game.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

6 to lynch

inHimshallibe: 2 (lazarusmoth, cateraction)
xRECKONERx: 2 (Rhinox, Xylthixlm)
lazarusmoth: 1 (inHimshallibe)
Xylthixlm: 1 (xRECKONERx)

Not Voting: 2 (Phoebus, DizzyIzzyB13, sam.samhorn, ConsonantM)

Current Deadline:

Saturday June 13th, 10 PM Eastern

[Xylthixlm]

Looks like we're going for the "everyone sits around until just before deadline and then rapidly throws together a bandwagon on someone and ignores any information from their reactions because it's too close to deadline to start a bandwagon on someone else" plan.

Get voting, people.

[Phoebus]

I think the fact that OGML likes to include duplicate power roles is relevant here. But my primary motivation was to try to counter the symmetrical setup speculation.

It's not helpful, particularly not this early in the game.

Elaborate.
Please.

vote: Xylthixlm

[cateraction]

Elaborate.
Please.

vote: Xylthixlm

You elaborate.

You're voting him because he doesn't think setup speculations is worth arguing over?

[Xylthixlm]

The main reason that symmetrical setup speculation isn't helpful is that it's extremely probable to be wrong. We have four roles dead and revealed, and three additional claims. Even if you accept all the claims as true - which you shouldn't - there's still nothing to tell the difference between "2 power role A, 2 power role B, 2 power role C" and "2 power role A, 2 power role B, 1 power role C, 1 power role D". The evidence is equally good for both, but the latter case is a priori more likely - symmetrical setups just don't happen that often. So even if all the claims are true, we're still unlikely to be in a symmetrical setup.

Of course, it's highly likely at least one of the power role claims is false. Given any three random players, there's a 51% to 67% chance at least one of them is scum (depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum). The fact that two of them were scummy enough to force to a claim, and all three claimed power roles, just makes that even more likely. One of the power role claims being false would make the evidence for a symmetrical setup

even weaker

.

In mafia 88, the evidence of a symmetrical setup was

at least

as good as this after

two-thirds

of the players had died. And it wasn't a symmetrical setup, it just had a couple of duplicated roles.

Finally, if you

do

believe in a symmetrical setup and use it to clear people, it becomes a form of circular reasoning. "I believe both inHimshallibe and xRECKONERx are telling the truth about their claims, which suggests we're in a symmetrical setup, which would mean that both inHimshalibe and xRECKONERx are telling the truth about their claims."

Seriously. Symmetrical setups aren't worth considering.