Mafia 95 - Quick & Dirty - Game Over!

[xRECKONERx]

The only thing that changes due to my blocking of Phoebus is that he can't be a SK.

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

5 to lynch

lazarusmoth: 3 (ConsonantM, xRECKONERx, Xylthixlm)
DizzyIzzyB13: 1 (cateraction)
xRECKONERx: 1 (Phoebus)
Phoebus: 1 (sam.samhorn)

Not Voting: 5 (lazarusmoth, DizzyIzzyB13)

Seeking a replacement for DizzyIzzyB13

[ConsonantM]

Thanks for the answer, Xyl.

Mod: Current deadline?

It's not given in the vote count...

[ConsonantM]

God *censored* that rain.

Until the rain here lets up,

V/LA

due to internet failure.

Don't worry. This is Western Washington. It can oh, only go on for weeks...
(More seriously, it's pouring. This will not last long. A day or two, most.)

[OhGodMyLife]

scotmany12 replaces DizzyIzzyB13. Welcome to the game!

Current deadline is 10 PM eastern on Thursday, June 25th. Deadlien information can always be found in the 2nd post.

[sam.samhorn]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

[scotmany12]

Hi guys. Just letting you know today is my mother's birthday and tomorrow is of course father's day. So I might be able to catch up over the weekend. If not, then definitely Monday.

[scotmany12]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

But it doesn't change the probability that phoebus is scum. Yes, it eliminates one scenario, but he still has the same chance to be scum as everyone else in this game. Just like when you first flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up head was still 50%. The probability that phoebus got a scum role was around 30% or something like that. That does not change at all.

[cateraction]

5 days left. Let's pick a wagon.

[Xylthixlm]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

But it doesn't change the probability that phoebus is scum. Yes, it eliminates one scenario, but he still has the same chance to be scum as everyone else in this game. Just like when you first flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up head was still 50%. The probability that phoebus got a scum role was around 30% or something like that. That does not change at all.

If I flip a coin, the probability that it's heads is 50%. But if I show you the coin and it's tails, the probability that it's heads becomes 0%. What changed? You gained information about the coin, and that changed the probability.

When I flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up heads was 50%. But when I added the information that at least one of the coins was tails, it went down to 33%.

Phoebus started with a 30% chance of getting a scum role or something like that. But you added the information that he didn't make the night kill last night, and that changes the probability that he's scum.

[Xylthixlm]

These two posts still need answers:

Now we're cookin'.

As I doubt that there are two town-aligned roleblockers, this looks like a good break for everyone. I'm going to take a good look at reck's and inhim's posts, and I suggest everyone do the same.

Reckoner - Townie. There's no reason for him to cc town-aligned roleblocker when he can claim an easier role if he were scum. I also see a point to the whole paired-roles symmetry setup with a mafia member being revealed specifically as Brooklyn Mafia, so I believe in his existence as another roleblocker.

lazurus, why the flip here? Just because Rhinox came up Brooklyn Mafia, or is there something more?

I think Reckoner is semi-cleared in my mind for voting for Rhinox when there was clearly as decent wagon going on who we now know was a mislynch (inhim).

Wait, what? Reckoner never voted Rhinox. In fact reck didn't even mention Rhinox once until after Rhinox was dead.

[ConsonantM]

Five days?
Oh, boy...
(I'll have to stop slacking and build those cases.)

[xRECKONERx]

5 days left. Let's pick a wagon.

How about you?

[cateraction]

I was talking to the new kid.

[xRECKONERx]

Hey cater, while you're posting, how about responding to Xylth's post?

[cateraction]

I recant that statement, I totally misread the votecount.

[scotmany12]

5 days left. Let's pick a wagon.

If you think I am just going to come in here and pick someone to vote for right away, you are mistaken.

[cateraction]

unvote; Vote: Pheobus

[sam.samhorn]

I give up. If the coin example didn't help, nothing will.

But that's the thing -- it doesn't help at all. All it does is eliminates one possible scenario. That doesn't make Phoebus any less chance of being scum.

Do you understand why the coin example is 1 in 3 rather than 1 in 2?

But it doesn't change the probability that phoebus is scum. Yes, it eliminates one scenario, but he still has the same chance to be scum as everyone else in this game. Just like when you first flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up head was still 50%. The probability that phoebus got a scum role was around 30% or something like that. That does not change at all.

If I flip a coin, the probability that it's heads is 50%. But if I show you the coin and it's tails, the probability that it's heads becomes 0%. What changed? You gained information about the coin, and that changed the probability.

When I flipped the first coin, the probability that it turned up heads was 50%. But when I added the information that at least one of the coins was tails, it went down to 33%.

Phoebus started with a 30% chance of getting a scum role or something like that. But you added the information that he didn't make the night kill last night, and that changes the probability that he's scum.

Probability has nothing to do with this. I thought you were a better mafia player than that.

vote: Phoebus

[xRECKONERx]

OGML: When is deadline for D3?

[Phoebus]

unvote: xRECKONERx ; vote: cateraction

Let's pick a wagon? That's your reason?

oh my god you suck

i'd vote for sam.sheep if i had two votes.

[xRECKONERx]

First off

unvote Phoebus

.

And now, a few questions for...

@sam.samhorn:

Why was Xylth not a valuable player at that point?

Since inHim turned up town, why did you say he was mafia? And you said it again here. And then you voted him here with no real explanation.

You said if inHim wasn't scum, then Xylth is. Still stand by that?

What is the policy lynch you referenced regarding Xyl?

Also, given your most recent vote, would you mind providing some support? It seems to me you've been fightiing XYL tooth-and-nail, not Phoebus.

More to come.

[xRECKONERx]

sam.scumhorn:

Given how many town players wound up on the Kise wagon, this seems like an early attempt to set-up mislynches among the wagoners.

Aside from the things mentioned above, you have consistently done two things successfully in this game:

1) Claim you will analyze the game to come up with "something". Like your vote on inHim, and your unvote on inHim, and when you say lynching laz is a bad idea.

2) Post just enough to get by, while not scumhunting or adding to conversation whatsoever. You especially fail at backing up your claims with logic of any sort. Why was the Kise wagon an awful wagon? How do previous mod setups affect this game at all? Even if laz has no internet access, why does that make him any less likely to be scum?

You've consistently managed to slip under the radar while contributing quite literally nothing to the game. Every vote you have voted this entire game has amounted to a bandwagon vote with no reason or case presented. You've not gone out of your way to hunt anyone - all you've done is comment on irrelevant, "safe" discussion. Until we get some answers...

Vote: sam.samhorn