Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[CarnCarn]

/confirm

[CarnCarn]

right then. so i'll kick this off with

random vote: armlx

[CarnCarn]

wow i mean

random vote: armlx

[CarnCarn]

oh more EBWOP

random vote: gun

[CarnCarn]

Vote: CarnCarn

to add a little pressure.

Oh noes... I confess

lol

[CarnCarn]

Townies can be lynched by both gun and rope, right? So if we lynch somebody by gun and that person does not die, it's safe to assume that person is Sicilian?

The first is correct. For the second, you cannot know for certain why a lynch fails.

Oh no, that is not something I like to hear. My initial guess is that probably means there's some roles with lynch protection, but maybe there are other reasons. I can't think of any other reason why that lynched person wouldn't be a sicilian.

[CarnCarn]

Not a random vote:

Vote:ZTR

Why is this not a random vote?

[CarnCarn]

we really need Armlx here, to talk tactics. Do we vote for the weapon first, as that might allow 1 scumgroup to get complacent, and run riot, or do we do it last, to try and gauge reactions and make votes mean something?

Also, i'll

Vote: CarnCarn

3rd on a wagon is obvtown.

BM

you need armlx to "talk tactics" and you jumping on my wagon? Hmm...

FoS: Battle Mage

[CarnCarn]

we really need Armlx here, to talk tactics. Do we vote for the weapon first, as that might allow 1 scumgroup to get complacent, and run riot, or do we do it last, to try and gauge reactions and make votes mean something?

Also, i'll

Vote: CarnCarn

3rd on a wagon is obvtown.

BM

you need armlx to "talk tactics" and you jumping on my wagon? Hmm...

FoS: Battle Mage

I should probably elaborate on this. My vote on armlx was not purely random. I have some setup information that makes me sightly suspicious of him. Nothing incriminating either way, but suspicion none the less.
BM calling out to armlx to "talk tactics" and jumping on my wagon deepens my suspicions.

[CarnCarn]

That said,

Vote Rope

to counter-wagon Gun, and

Vote CarnCarn

. I can't see what set up info you can have in a day start that makes you "mildly" suspicious of someone, so I'm inclined to think he is lying here.[/quote]

You are either avoiding the issue or I just picked up another bit of information about the set up.
Going on what you said, I'm currently inclined to think the latter, and that you are scum.

Also, can oEJo explain his non-random vote, please?[/quote]

[CarnCarn]

EBWOP to make my last post easier to read.

That said,

Vote Rope

to counter-wagon Gun, and

Vote CarnCarn

. I can't see what set up info you can have in a day start that makes you "mildly" suspicious of someone, so I'm inclined to think he is lying here.

You are either avoiding the issue or I just picked up another bit of information about the set up.
Going on what you said, I'm currently inclined to think the latter, and that you are scum.

[CarnCarn]

As for the whole CarnCarn/armlx thing, I have a rough idea what CarnCarn is getting at, but if I'm right (I don't want to say it just in case CarnCarn's BSing us and I'm giving him an out), we should probably just ignore it.

The more I think about it, the more I think you're right. I don't think its uncommon to setup the way it is anymore. In any case, at this early stage, armlx is still my most suspicious target, but I'll be looking for something more convincing.

[CarnCarn]

You are either avoiding the issue or I just picked up another bit of information about the set up.

Or I'm calling your bluff.

Like I said, I can't see any source of pre-game information that would only make you

slightly

suspicious of a particular other player.

No, it's not a bluff, and from only pregame info, it is only enough info for slight suspicion.
What alarmed me was BM's calling out to you to "talk tactics", which I found strange. Still, it's only slight; not more, not less at this point.

[CarnCarn]

STD, E and D aren't options. D as I hadn't posted besides confirmation, something that is essentially random for me based on if I forget to watch the topic or not (see: Dynamite Mafia); E as that happened AFTER he said the thing about having the info.

You're right about D - I haven't played enough to really use meta, anyway.
You're wrong about E - The BM post I'm referring to is 47. I make the setup claim in 54.

[CarnCarn]

But your vote was placed before said comment. So either

A) I'm right

or

B) Your vote is based off of things from in thread, not pre-game

aka I'm right or I'm right.

It was placed before BM's comment, yes. It was based off that info, and the in-game stuff only fueled my doubts about you. I.e., it's based off both, now. I asked the mod for clarification about the info I'm talking about, and, from his response, it's pretty clear that you are avoiding the issue.

Carncarn, are you going to talk about it, or are you just going to dangle this piece of candy in front of us and withdraw your hand at the last minute? I don't really respond to arguments like, "I have info, but I'm not sayin' nothin'."

I don't know that I should. I'm inclined to think that Moses is correct that we can just ignore it for now, because, by itself, it doesn't condemn anyone. And revealing it has some considerable downside for the town.
Yes, I think I will wait for a better time.

[CarnCarn]

STD, E and D aren't options. D as I hadn't posted besides confirmation, something that is essentially random for me based on if I forget to watch the topic or not (see: Dynamite Mafia); E as that happened AFTER he said the thing about having the info.

You're right about D - I haven't played enough to really use meta, anyway.
You're wrong about E - The BM post I'm referring to is 47. I make the setup claim in 54.

Unvote

Vote; CarnCarn

He was arguing that E could be correct when it couldn't have been. Since he's the person making the case.

I don't see why E is wrong. I placed my vote before the game, basically randomly, although with a few extra percentage points towards armlx. Then, the BM post came and I grew more suspicious.
After reading BM's explanation about armlx and tactics, I'm beginning to think I misinterpreted. And no, I'm a new player and I've not played many games with armlx.

Moses: It was probably what you were thinking earlier. It's not that complicated but I don't want to simply state it.

[CarnCarn]

I don't know that I should. I'm inclined to think that Moses is correct that we can just ignore it for now, because, by itself, it doesn't condemn anyone. And revealing it has some considerable downside for the town.
Yes, I think I will wait for a better time.

Why would you state something exists if revealing such would be detrimental to the town?

Your whole style concerning going about this doesn't seem too helpful at this point, as well.

Because I wanted to see armlx's response. I haven't revealed it yet, but I will if it would be useful. It is not useful now.

[CarnCarn]

And,

Vote: Empking

He seems to just be jumping from wagon to wagon (from the ZTR one to now mine).

[CarnCarn]

I don't see why E is wrong. I placed my vote before the game, basically randomly, although with a few extra percentage points towards armlx. Then, the BM post came and I grew more suspicious.

Because in the context of your vote I don't care about the BM-myself "connection". That's semi-valid analysis in the absence of knowing my tendency to talk about game theory. The issue is the "info" you have that I'm questioning, and that came before BM's post.

OK, that's right. The info I have, much like BM's post, is open to interpretation. That's why I said it made me only slightly suspicious and was not condeming anyone. It's possible, at this early stage, that I've misinterpreted that info.
This is really the maximum extent to which I will go into it right now. Of course, if it appears I'm going to be lynched or NK'd, then it would be valuable info for the town, and I'll reveal it then. All of what I'm saying should hopefully make sense then.

[CarnCarn]

Still think CC is just lying out his ass.

Your continued doubts suggest that you're not simply avoiding the matter - you're honestly ignorant of it. For a moment there, you managed to have me thinking you weren't scum.
First of all, if you were pro-town, you should know why that info is enough to make me "slightly suspicious" of you. You claimed to have no idea what info that could be. The emphasis here is on "you," as in armlx (this doesn't apply to anyone else).
Do you know why you don't know? Because you're scum. Ironic because scum are supposed to be "informed" faction.
Moving back to

Vote: armlx

I'll give you another chance to explain yourself, and then I will explain this info if you don't get it.

[CarnCarn]

Meh, I've screwed it up enough its at least worth this.

CC and myself can night talk. Not masons, as neither of us has received confirmation of the other's alignment. The later is what CC is talking about, as he is assuming this lack of confirmation is more or less a confirmation of guilty. However, I have NEVER seen that or similar things happen without symmetry in a 2 scum group game, and even in a 1 scum group game I have only seen it happen 1 time out of many, the single exception being a game the mod was fucking with the players as much as possible (Sin City Mafia on MTGS). I've seen it and can expect it with 3 player groups (President Mafia comes to mind), but in a 2 player group I doubt it.

So, basically I'm pretty sure CC is town now that I've stopped being an idiot.

As for other, non-night talk abilities, I have no comment. CC or myself may or may not have those.

OK, you got what I was talking about. I'll move back again to

Vote: EmpKing

. I didn't assume it meant you were guilty, but perhaps you can see why I interpreted BM's post the way I did. My initial vote was pretty much random, with a few percent thrown your way, as I said.

Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams.

No comment on non-night talk abilities from me, as well.

[CarnCarn]

The set up itself implies 2 scum groups. considering we have to choose which one is lynch vulnerable each day.....

lol i'm an idiot, brain freeze

Well, I'm glad you guys do, but it doesn't really clear them in the slightest (not that I don't believe the claims).

You're right. I'm back to where I started the game, as far as armlx goes. Still kinda suspicious, but nothing to go on.
Right now I'm leaning towards an EmpKing lynch for being shifty/opportunistic. Probably only minor points against him, but that's really all I've got to go on for now.

[CarnCarn]

Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams.

The set up itself implies 2 scum groups. considering we have to choose which one is lynch vulnerable each day.....

Going ahead and clearing up any remaining confusion. You know for a fact that there is a Sicilian Mafia and a Corsican Mafia in the setup.

Reading through, Armlx is starting to smell...right up until this comment by the Mod. Why would the Mod post this? It seems fairly obvious to anyone who is paying attention. And it's not like it will really have a major impact on the game if it isnt remembered. That is, i cannot see how the Mod could possibly make this comment if Armlx was scum, because if he did, it could be considering meddling with what could be a ploy by Armlx.
As such, he's pretty much confirmed town.

BM

I think STD is right. The mod edit doesn't tell us anything because it was always obvious that there were 2 scum groups (sicilians and corsicans), and the town (from the intro and pregame posts).

[CarnCarn]

RE: Vote count

armlx unvoted me last page.

[CarnCarn]

However, re-reading that exchange makes me wonder why CarnCarn wouldn't be sure. Like I said, the entire premise of this game's theme is based on our knowledge that there are two mafias, each of them unkillable via a particular method. If CarnCarn wasn't aware of that very important factor, why hadn't he mentioned it earlier? The fact that we have to vote on an execution method should have been enough of a red flag.

Yeah, it was a brain freeze at the time I was writing it. Playing too many games/doing too many things at the same time. It was an honest slip. I was thinking only about the number of players and forgot about the whole game flavor when I was posting that.

[CarnCarn]

Quote:

If CarnCarn wasn't aware of that very important factor, why hadn't he mentioned it earlier?



I don't get this.

That's because I

was

aware. Soon after my first random vote for armlx, I voted gun for lynch method. I never even slightly assumed there could only be one scum group in any post other than that one.

[CarnCarn]

I'm feeling Moses is town based off his early strategy speculation about choosing the lynch method. I think he's extrapolating too much from an honest slip, though.
Also, I tend to agree that the Santos "tell" is a stretch, as well as trying to read mod-tells. AFAIK, who knows for sure why mods really do anything?

[CarnCarn]

I can't help myself. The claim for having a mason and NOT knowing the other mason's alignment bugs me. Is there more we can break from this? Obviously the plain fact that they're masons we would naturally assume they would both be town aligned, but adding in the fact that they do not know each other's alignment makes me a lot more skeptical. I mean, what good is having this ability? EX: If I were in CarnCarn/armlx's shoes why not just talk in the game thread to each other?

I don't know what the whole point of this ability is either. My guess is that the mod just wants to throw in extra confusion. I don't really see anything I could talk about at night with armlx that I couldn't during the day.

[CarnCarn]

Welcome, Thunder.

I don't know about EmpKing meta and I haven't heard anyone else vouch for it except CD, so I'm thinking he is still scummy.

I'm not really buying the Santos wagon. It's based off of his buddying with RBT and his desire to avoid committing to a lynch method. Neither are scum tells to me. It would really take pretty dense scum to openly ally/brownose the way Santos did. Also, I think he should commit to a lynch method mostly because it doesn't really matter which one is picked day 1 (but does help to guage people's reactions and preferences for method).

So, for now, I'm still keeping my vote on EmpKing.

[CarnCarn]

Maybe because I have a very similar role to what you two have claimed. Though, in this case, I do not advise my 'mason' to announce it now

Interesting. I also assume you are talking about unconfirmed alignment. In which case, I don't see what the harm would be of that person stepping up, although I don't see any benefit from that person stepping up, either.
What I find strange is how you didn't believe what I was talking about, at first. You probably could have figured out I had a similar role.

[CarnCarn]

Don't lovers usually know they're lovers?

Right and I have no indication we are. I think Moses le fou is assuming that if we were both scum we would possibly lie about anything.

armlx is right.

The general conclusion would be if 4 of us had that role that in order for the mafia groups to be balanced relative to each other either all 4 people with the role would have to be town or exactly 2 scum, one from each group. Its possible that they would be arranged S1-S2 and T-T, but T-S1 and T-S2 is more likely on design principle.

Interesting. If it is the latter setup, and you were scum, why would you point this out? I don't know whether to think this is WIFOM or you are simply town.
It's also possible that the former setup is the case, and we are both town, or even that both mason groups are town (I don't see any reason why not).[/quote]

[CarnCarn]

The general conclusion would be if 4 of us had that role that in order for the mafia groups to be balanced relative to each other either all 4 people with the role would have to be town or exactly 2 scum, one from each group. Its possible that they would be arranged S1-S2 and T-T, but T-S1 and T-S2 is more likely on design principle.

Actually, I'll take this one step further. We could also have T-T and T-S1/S2, or even three such mason groups, T-T, T-S1, T-S2 (the latter is how I personally would have chosen to design it), or even a fourth S1-S2. Look at the AA mafia game for an example of this.

[CarnCarn]

We're in a

19

16 player game, by my count.
BM

Fixed.

[CarnCarn]

Vote Count:
Lynch Method Vote Count:
Gun (6): CarnCarn, ZazieR, hp [leaves], oEJo, christiano drago, ZTR
Rope (6): Save the Dragons, Riceballtail, armlx, Empking, Sineish, Moses le fou

Not voting for a lynch method (5): Battle Mage, Thunder, SocioPath, Santos, hp [leaves]

So, hp[leaves] has 2 votes?

Fixed.

[CarnCarn]

I feel like changing my vote.

Unvote: Empking

Vote: hp[leaves]

for lurking/inactivity. Pretty scummy if you ask me.

[CarnCarn]

Umm, mods

do

make mistakes (as evidenced).

*hopes he isn't modkilled for that*

[CarnCarn]

I still want confirmation if Santos was actually claiming "mason" or not.

Yeah, he's given us no reason to believe it, with all his "maybe"s. And unless it's confirmed masons, it doesn't give any idea about alignment at all, and would be pretty moot to even mention at this point.

[CarnCarn]

Now that's he has already brought up the topic, I agree.

[CarnCarn]

I don't see why committing to a lynch method would be a bad idea now. In fact I think it would help if we just choose one first and stuck to it. If the person we elect for the lynch doesn't end up getting killed, they are most likely going to be scum of the opposite faction. Apparently there are other ways for a lynch to fail, according to the mod, but this is probably the most likely scenario.
Can we get back to this plz?

[CarnCarn]

STD, I don't think the order really matters that much because if we lynch a scum immune to the method, then it will be obvious. Unless it becomes clear that someone is scum of a definate group, I don't see how it matters which order we settle on method and player.

[CarnCarn]

I am a mason as described by you two people earlier, but why should I ask for him to come out? Yes, at this juncture it means I am unconfirmed, but why the hell should I appease just you that is hammering me most about it?

I'm not sure, actually. armlx's theory of the symmetrical town/scum pairings is interesting, and this info could help town down the line. But it seems like it would help scum right away, if it's true.

[CarnCarn]

why are we wagoning santos anyway? can we get back to wagoning hp[leaves] or RBT? They've basically contributed nothing, while the only thing Santos has against him is correcting the mod for his gun vote, which is a null-tell, as far as I know.
I don't know why armlx wants to know the identity of santos' mason buddy, but apparently there is a good reason.
Santos, can you definately say that you don't know the alignment of your mason buddy and that they don't know yours? If this is the case, I don't see any reason to reveal any more information right now.

[CarnCarn]

RE: Santos,

I didn't like the "I don't want to participate in gun/rope" shtick.

I really didn't like the "I'm jumping on Moses because I want to put pressure on a bandwagon no wait I'm going to unvote him now."

I didn't like how he called out Riceballtail as doing a good job.

Santos wagon FTW

Vote: Santos

OK, there a couple points here. The biggest one is the first one. If you agree with what I said above santos, then why do you not want to vote for a lynch method, Santos (actually I thought he was voting Gun, initially)?
I think I know why he voted/unvoted Moses.
Yeah, also RBT is

not

doing a good job. What are you talking about Santos? I still don't see this as a scum-tell, though.

[CarnCarn]

I didn't want the identity. I wanted confirmation before I proceeded with this.

I want your partner to come out with your exact role name. Now.

Well, if you're just asking for the role name, I think you could direct the question at Santos. You probably have some reason I don't see, though, to ask him mason buddy to step up.

[CarnCarn]

If his buddy steps up and is correct, we can be pretty sure that one of each is scum.

I don't follow this.

I'm not going to say whether or not this is correct, though, until someone else answers (if they do):

'Neighbor'

[CarnCarn]

UNVOTE; VOTE:Armlx
FoS:Moses

Thought: Armlx is trying to get a name out of him to see if it's a scumbuddy, so he can figure out if CC is also therefore scum or not.

I as well must commend you on your excellent play! You vote for armlx, then you accuse him of scumhunting. Which is clearly a scummy thing to do.

lol *snickers*

[CarnCarn]

See my earlier post.

[CarnCarn]

STD, he has already said that he doesn't know his mason buddy's alignment.

Santos, can you definately say that you don't know the alignment of your mason buddy and that they don't know yours? If this is the case, I don't see any reason to reveal any more information right now.

I can definitely say that we do not know each others' alignment. Furthermore, I have not even contacted said mason yet because it is not night, obviously; and I have no idea what we would talk about anyway.

Santos, what exactly were you talking about here:

The claim for having a mason and NOT knowing the other mason's alignment bugs me.

This really bothers me in context of things you've you said.

[CarnCarn]

I agree with armlx here. Now that Santos has already 'revealed' that he's a mason, he already has a higher chance of being NK'ed. If there isn't a third mason it doesn't matter if Santos reveals or doesn't reveal his partner as Santos can get NK'ed and his partner changes in a normal townie.
I would like to know who his partner is. If his partner can confirm that they are masons, then we at least know there's another mason group. Now there's still a chance of him lying.

I don't see why it would be the case, since alignments of all "masons" are unknown (except to themselves, of course).
You are assuming that the masons are all definately town-aligned, which is probably not a good assumption at this point.
And, if Santos is telling the truth, there should be at least 4 masons now.

[CarnCarn]

If Santos doesn't reveal his mason partner or his partner doesn't self-reveal soon, I will be voting Santos.
Not to mention that he hasn't answered any of the other questions that have been posed to him.

[CarnCarn]

Vote:Santos

Even though this puts him at L-1.
There were so many things out of place in that post...
Also, I'm not sure about the symmetry argument oEJo is using. That is not why I'm voting Santos.
What I found particularly strange was where he said his role might have mentioned armlx and that he didn't remember who my mason partner was. And then he later says oEJo is his mason partner.

[CarnCarn]

Actually, I would like everyone to choose a lynch method. Those not voting for one have tried to argue their way out of doing so, but haven't provided anything logical.
Now that we're actually close to lynching someone, I agree that BM and others should choose a lynch method, as they've said they would.

[CarnCarn]

Wait a second...

The Sicilian Mafia and Corsican Mafia have chosen to take over a small town. Just one problem, the only method that the Sicilian Mafia has to kill off the Corsicans doesn't work on the Town, while their best method for killing of members of the Town doesn't work on the Corsicans and same for the Corsicans! The town has a similar problem, as they have to use different methods for the Sicilians and the Corsicans.

Does this mean there is only one way to kill a townie, and thus a failed lynch tells us nothing about alignment?

[CarnCarn]

If it is true, it destroys my whole theory behind "lynch method choice doesn't matter"
I'm going to

Unvote:Santos

until we get some mod info on this (unless it's already been explained and I just don't remember it).

[CarnCarn]

Rope lynches scum, gun kills townies. Why would it be the other way around?

Gun kills Corsicans, Rope kills Sicilians.
Actually, after thinking about this some more, I'm beginning to think the NK methods for scum are different from the Gun/Rope lynch methods (they would have to be, based on the opening post, IMO).
For example, the Corsican can choose to NK with Rope or some other weapon that kills only townies (and to which the Sicilians are immune). Otherwise, the Corsicans can just NK with Rope all the time. So, each scum group is actually immune to 2 weapons, for this work out.
However, I don't understand why the Corsicans wouldn't choose Rope anyway because Rope should be able to kill townies as well (AFAIK, I have no protection against any weapon). This setup is driving me insane right now.

[CarnCarn]

I don't get how you know that: 'Gun kills Corsicans, Rope kills Sicilians. '

It helps to read the thread

You all have heard the news. Both the Sicilian Mafia and the Corsican Mafia have decided to take over your small town. However, you all decide to set up a lynch rope and a gun to kill them off before they kill you off. However, the Coriscan Mafia can't be killed by a rope, while the Sicilians have bulletproof vests, perventing guns from killing them. No matter, you are ready to use either, so you all decide to make the first blow.

[CarnCarn]

OK, so I guess the scum weapons are neither gun nor rope, but with the same underlying idea (one kills scum, one kills town). That still means each scum group is vulnerable to two different weapons. Anyway, I don't see this info really helping the town, as I was originally hoping.

[CarnCarn]

Too much design space taken up. That would involve at least 6 roles like that.

So...you think that it's not possible to have a town-town mason group due to both symmetry and design space (especially if Santos comes up scum).

Does this mean you think your partner is scum?

Yeah, I'm not getting this because armlx seemed pretty confident that I was town (and I am). I think he's town, too, after he intitial mix-up.
I also don't see why 6 Neighbor roles isn't possible. I think that is better symmetry (T-T, T-S1, T-S2).
This is hard to explain perhaps, but I mostly don't think armlx is scum because he is sticking to the symmetry rule. If he were scum and he believed this, then if/when I am lynched and flip town, then he would be an obvious target. However, since I know I'm town and that armlx would only say what he said if he were town, I'm thinking we are a town-town mason pair.

[CarnCarn]

Can someone remind me what was the role name of CC and armlx? I looked through the thread and couldn't find it.

I don't recall them saying either.

I think it's OK to say this now. I am a Neighbor. Santos and EJ were correct in their role-name claims.
This doesn't say whether or not we have any other night abilities, as armlx mentioned earlier.

[CarnCarn]

I have spoken only the truth.

Oh my. **facepalm**

that sucks (for me).

Fixed.

Claiming Neighbor doesn't prove you are protown. I never said oEJo is not scum in that post, nor did I say that you were.
Please vote a lynch method or my vote will go back on, although I still get mad scum vibes from hp[leaves].

[CarnCarn]

For one thing, you keep avoiding voting for a lynch method. Please vote one ASAP (or give a damn good reason for not voting), or who knows you might get dayvigged or something.

[CarnCarn]

Vote: Rope

located at 323.

Oh, hmm, I was going off the vote count. Care to explain why Rope now, after voting Gun at first?

[CarnCarn]

Fine. If it's good enough for you, then it's good enough for me.

Vote:Rope

[CarnCarn]

Mod:

I believe Santos is voting Rope.

Also, where is Thunder? We could really use him to weigh in here. Haven't heard from him in a while.

[CarnCarn]

BM, armlx, wouldn't he assume the town would choose the

opposite

of what he chose?
I'm sticking with Rope for now.

[CarnCarn]

Eventually, after following CarnCarn's logic about the game mechanics,

Santos, what in my speculation about the lynch/kill methods, which I've now decided was mostly wrong, made you decide Rope was a better method than Gun?

[CarnCarn]

STD, I think that question can be extended to hp [leaves] as well.

although I still get mad scum vibes from hp [leaves].

Could you please explain why is this?

OK, I will explain:

Also, not random

vote: Gun

Guns are like, awesome.

Hmm, OK...

I agree with Santos' idea to delay the choice of method.

unvote

I also unvote and

vote: moses

because I'm thinking he's trying too hard and pointing out ideas is a neighbor's duty.

Well, maybe, but are you really just trying to subtly buddy with Santos here? He follows your vote on Moses soon after.

But then you:

Oh also

Vote: Santos

That's it? Can it be any more obvious bandwagoning, maybe even bussing? Please answer STD's question and explain your reasons for the Santos vote.
All of these things, along with massive lurking, make me quite suspicious of you.

[CarnCarn]

Santos, probably a time to full claim, here at L-1.

BM, why is Rope definately a bad choice? Do you think Santos is town? How do you know Empking is obvtown?

[CarnCarn]

armlx, what do you think of oEJo?

[CarnCarn]

armlx, I'm willing to hammer if you can explain your thoughts on oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, I'm willing to hammer if you can explain your thoughts on oEJo.

I should say, depending on your thoughts on oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

Well, if you are going to use the symmetry argument, it seems to boil down to either he and oEJo are both scum or that Santos and I are scum. Do you see it that way? Which of those do you believe at this point?

[CarnCarn]

I'm really not buying the Santos wagon ATM. It's quite likely he that just played poorly early on and is not scum at all. I really don't see the symmetry argument by armlx. Why was he so eager to believe oEJo when he said Santos was scum? Then, when I asked him about oEJo, his opinion was only that he didn't have enough info to give an opinion. I'm really finding armlx suspicious again in his wavering opinion about oEJo and his symmetry argument with little explanation.
I'm beginning to think BM is right about the Santos wagon being really opportunistic. In fact, at least two of the votes are blatant bandwagoning of the most basic kind (ZTR, hp [leaves]).
I'm still thinking hp [leaves] is much more scummy.

[CarnCarn]

I actually brought up the idea first, several pages ago.

I know this, but why are you going to take oEJo's word for it? Think about it from his perspective. He is either a townie thinking Santos is scum or another scum thinking santos is rival scum. But why wouldn't he think that both he and Santos are town?
Can you explain this:

He's scum, based on symmetry stuff.

This. More lynch plz.

Why do you trust it?

[CarnCarn]

Since there are at least three mason-like groups, the symmetry can be like S1-t, S2-t (these two have the most chance to be in the game), S1-S2 or T-T

Wow, this is what I've been thinking all along; there was probably a third pair. I didn't understand what you were talking about in that post you quoted, but it does make sense now.
I'm going to

Unvote: hp [leaves]

[CarnCarn]

BM, oEJo, the spelling is wrong. Doesn't really change anything, but w/e.
And BM, Neighbor is the acual role name, but even mafia can be Neighbors, I think (unless they are only told they can night talk, and their role name is something different, like Goon or something; they could of course be both Goon and Neighbor, for example).

[CarnCarn]

Also:

...We're not all neighbours right?

[CarnCarn]

With this many people as neighbors, how was everyone confused about my "slight" suspicion against armlx. Seriously, everyone sounded clueless. How could any town Neighbor not be suspicious of an unconfirmed mason partner right out of the gate?
STD, do you know hp [leaves] alignment or are you also just unconfirmed?

[CarnCarn]

How do you deduce he's town from his metaless meta?

[CarnCarn]

I get the general sense of newbie cluelessness.

Oh, I agree with you. This is basically the only thing that's keeping me from voting him: the possibility that he is just playing poorly as a townie, and getting attacked by veterans (possibly scum).

[CarnCarn]

Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?

STD.

I KNEW IT!

K, seriously...now that you've danced around this for a couple of posts, care to explain why?

STD, in light of your recent Neighbor claim... some things that stick out in a re-read:

it's logical to assume that he must have been named to you in your role.

How can you be so sure about what he said that allows you to think he must have armlx in his PM? You seriously think he couldn't

a) be making shit up
b) have misread something <===this is my pick right now.
c) have received information pre game from the mod
d) have picked up a meta tell
e) be reading too much into BM's mention of armlx's name.

This is before I actually claimed what my role was, but I figured Neighbor is a relatively vanilla role that others might has as well. What would I have misread? You have the same info about someone in your own role PM that should make you suspicious of them (even if you are scum, but especially if you are town).

Carncarn, are you going to talk about it, or are you just going to dangle this piece of candy in front of us and withdraw your hand at the last minute? I don't really respond to arguments like, "I have info, but I'm not sayin' nothin'."

It sounds like you were pushing me to reveal myself here. Not cool - I was waiting for armlx to commit either way to whether he has me named in his role PM and whether I was described as unconfirmed.

@hp [leaves]: I'm a little disappointed with your latest contribution. Anyone looking suspicious to you?

This is your only communication with your mason partner before he claimed.

Your role PM better say that your buddy is confirmed, or I'm probably not taking my vote off you. I'm not really sure how you can be bugged by someone having your own role.

What?? This really bothers me. How could it possibly say his buddy was confirmed? You have the same role info as me and armlx. It just sounds like you were trying too hard to get Santos nailed.

This. Even if a partner does come out, I'm sold.

Confirm vote: Santos

die scum die.

Huh? Again, just reads of trying too hard.

(and actually claiming Neighbor doesn't really affect anything, because it doesn't mean you can't be scum...)

How do you know this? Are you sure scum can be both Neighbor

and

another role name? Only if you were scum yourself could you know this.

I can't help myself. The claim for having a mason and NOT knowing the other mason's alignment bugs me. Is there more we can break from this? Obviously the plain fact that they're masons we would naturally assume they would both be town aligned, but adding in the fact that they do not know each other's alignment makes me a lot more skeptical. I mean, what good is having this ability? EX: If I were in CarnCarn/armlx's shoes why not just talk in the game thread to each other?

He has the exact same role! How can he say that them having something he doesn't have bothers him?

Seriously. Armlx and CarnCarn, masons, are like Santos and oEJo. So why is he doubting something their role doesn't have if he doesn't have it himself? If he sees that they have the exact same details as him, that should help confirm them as their role (not alignment, of course, but their role).

And yet, while you accuse Santos of obfuscating armlx's and my own role claim, you are guilty of doing similar things.

Goddamnit. The Santos wagon is riddled with scum.

Ironic, but thanks for the tip.

Vote: Save The Dragons
Unvote: Rope
Vote: Gun

[CarnCarn]

The thing that confuses me is why STD and hp let us carry on so long on the false premise of 2/4 being scum.

Yeah, this is especially confusing:

My bad to RBT and armlx...I did miss the S1-S2 and T-T possibility. Still, I'm not going to discount the possibility of 3+ mason sets so easily (even if it does seem a little weird).

When were you planning to reveal this info, if at all? Did you think it was anti-town to reveal it?

[CarnCarn]

Wait, what the heck? What does this even mean?

All I said was that someone could be neighbor and scum, which is not a belief that is exclusive to myself.

Is there a difference between being a Neighbor and being able to night talk with someone? Can you actually be a

N

eighbor AND a scum role?

[CarnCarn]

I guess, but that basically amounts to giving scum a safeclaim. Not that that is anything strange in itself, but, for some reason I doubt it would be given that way.

I really don't think Santos is scum because his claim was the actual role name (capitalized N, spelled exactly the way it is in my own role), not like oEJo, who not only only choose not to capitalize, but also to use a different spelling. Even if he didn't think that is the way it should be spelled, why would he use something different from what the mod gave? Unless he didn't realize that Neighbor is a role name claim, and not just an ability.

I don't think scum would know the role name of their mason partner; it just seems unfair. More likely, the scum are just latching on to the "neighbor" term and trying to subtly pass it off as their own role name.

[CarnCarn]

if their role is 'Mafia Neighbor' then the fact the Neighbor is capitalised and spelt incorrectly shouldn't matter.

Yeah... that's possible. I reread my own role again, and armlx's comments about night actions (may or may not have them). Assume a protown role with night actions. Would they be called a Neighbor? Sure, they are neighbor to someone else, but I don't think their role would be called a Neighbor. Mafia Neighbor is certainly a possibility, though, but I guess we'll find out for sure in due course.
Anyway, all of this means that all of you guys are right, for now.
I'm gonna

Unvote: Save The Dragons

until we hear from Socio about why he thinks STD is scum.

[CarnCarn]

We need to either lynch someone who hasnt claimed neighbour, or go through every single neighbour until they are all dead.

Well, we've only got 1 person who has actually claimed Neighbor as a role (Santos). We've got a lot of neighbors available for lynch, though. I do like the idea of lynching neighbors first (since I think there is some type of symmetry among these groups, and, knowing my own alignment, I think there is a higher chance of lynching scum than if we just pick from the non-neighbor pool).

[CarnCarn]

armlx has explained this a bit earlier. I figure half of the neighbor pool is scum in some way or other (the specific pairings are of course unknown). So, I think 3/6 (50%) are scum. Of the other 10 in the non-neighbor pool, I assume, with 2 3-man scum teams, this leaves 4 scum (plus any neutrals, but lets ignore for now; neutrals could also be substituted into the neighbor pool, so it really doesn't make a big difference for this argument). The non-neighbor pool is thus only 40% scum. And, while I know this next part is WIFOM, given my own alignment, I know the actual chances of lynching scum from the neighbor pool are more likely 3/5 (60%). I think the chances can be improved even further with a close analysis of peoples' posts, etc.
Anyway, I gotta run now. Will post more later.

[CarnCarn]

6/16 <0.40

[CarnCarn]

Edit: the non neighbor pool should only have 3/10 (30%), sorry.

[CarnCarn]

Why 'Neighbour'?

It's the Queen English, my dear.

[CarnCarn]

D'oh. Yeah, odd number doesn't make sense. armlx is correct. Unless you want to throw in a neutral (2 mafia, 1 neutral) into the neighbor pool, which would make sense.

[CarnCarn]

Other people commented on how this looks like Santos is just trying to buddy up to Riceball, but to me it looks like subtle rolefishing. If it was rolefishing, I don't think it did a very good job, because there didn't seem to be any reactions from Riceball to imply that he has a powerrole. But it does look to me that this was Santos's intentions: To get Riceball to slip about having a power role.

As for which lynch method to use, I believe the gun would be the best option. Santos's initial vote was most likely little more than a random vote. But his vote for rope later on seemed like he was trying to trick everybody into thinking that only rope will kill scum. Of course, WIFOM is involved, but I honestly think he was not thinking that far ahead. His post to me looked like he saw pressure was being put on him, so he attempted to find whatever reason he could to get people to vote for rope.

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun

I don't know why you think that is rolefishing at all. He wasn't making a serious accusation, and it's not like RBT is going to just come out and state his role because Santos mentioned that he could possibly be a power role.

And, if you think Santos is scum, you do realize that he is voting Gun now? And that's it's way ahead of Rope? If Santos is scum, it's probably the Rope that will work.

Although I don't really see a definate scum tell, the Santos case is probably the strongest. The strange thing is how he keeps following RBT. Just recently, RBT decided to vote STD and Gun, saying:

UNVOTE; Vote:STD; Vote:Gun

Let's see where this wagon goes.

And guess what Santos decides to do:

Unvote: whoever

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Save the Dragons

Vote: Gun

I don't know if such blatant buddying is really a tell, but I'm definately looking for an explanation from Santos.

[CarnCarn]

Unvote: Santos, Vote: RBT
Unvote: Gun

So, you're going back to RBT. Why the sudden shifting? The Gun unvote is also interesting.

I thought I was actually following your lead, CarnCarn. I have no explanation except to say that I am glad someone focused on someone who was trying to lead the town which is either what a scum falls into doing, or a vanilla townie will do. Power roles usually stay dormant or lurk like a mafia godfather.

Well, maybe... I did unvote STD by the time you voted. I think it is a null-tell for now, but I've Got My Eye On Him.

Carn?

Santos?

[CarnCarn]

Boy, this is really stalling. Santos, you are at L-2. Are you going to full-claim? I think you should do that. I don't want to put you at L-1, especially since your Neighbor, oEJo, is not voting.

[CarnCarn]

Hmm, I don't see anything in the rules that prohibits it:

Rules:
Standard:
0. This is a game. Have fun. Don’t let things get personal.
1. The game will start with a Day Start once all confirms are in.
2. During Day, you may vote for one player at a time. Votes must be bold or they will not be counted. Unvoting is optional.
3. Whenever a player has more than half of the people alive voting for him/her, that player will be lynched, and his or her role will be revealed, and Night will begin.
4. If discussion lags or Day goes on for too long, a deadline may be set, most likely a retractable deadline, but if I feel it is necessary it will be non-retractable. At deadline, if there are 8 or more people, a half majority will suffice, if there are 7 or less, than a full majority is needed to lynch.
5. Do not talk outside the thread unless your role allows it.
6. If you’re dead, you get one ‘bah’ post with no game-related content.
7. If you have any question, complaint, or comment, PM me.
8. Confirm in thread.
9. Feel free to correct me if I make a mistake, but be nice about it.
10. I will try my best to get a vote count near or at the top of every page or at least every few days.
11. If you do not post for 72 hours or if a player requests I do so, I will prod you by PM, and then if you still do not post, you may be replaced or prodded again. Absences that are posted in thread, noted in your sig and/or posted in VLA are exceptions to this rule, though if I feel it is necessary, I might temporarily replace you.
12. Red is the offical mod color, no one but me may post in it, and if someone other than me edits it, the red will be edited out and they will be warned.
13. The setup and roles were 100% randomized.
14. If I have to prod someone a third time in a game day, they will be replaced instead unless one of the prods was when they were V/LA, which do not count. This is reset at the end of every game day and for anyone who replaces in.
15. The number of prods will be kept track of in the front post. Number of stars by a person's name equals the number of times they have been prodded. If the next time they would be prodded they will be replaced instead, their name will be italicized.
16. If you are modkilled for any reason that is not a mod mistake, you will be turned into a Neutral Survivor, and therefore lose. The town will be told what your role before being turned into a neutral survivor.
17. I reserve the right to edit these rules as I see fit.

Unique:
18. Each Mafia group has to choose whether their kill can affect pro-town people or members of the opposite group
19. The town, in addition to choosing who to lynch, has to choose which Mafia group can be lynched that day. Either the lynch is by a rope (which the Corsican group is immune to) or by a gun (which the Sicilians are immune to).
20. If you are unvoting a lynch method without revoting for the other lynch method, you must have unvote lynch method in bold.
21. Once a majority of people are voting for the same player, then which ever of rope or gun has more votes will be the method used. If they have the same amount of votes, which ever got to the amount first will be used.
22. If any pro-town people with night-choices are in the setup, they have to choose whether their choice affects Corsican or Sicilian. For example, a Doctor has to choose whether he/she can protect from Corsican kills or whether he/she can protect from Sicillian kills each night, which a Cop has to choose whether they get a guilty on Corsicans or Sicilians each night.

You are a Townie , during the night you sleep in, and during the day you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

[CarnCarn]

Ah. That makes sense.

Well, I had a feeling he was town, based on 'Neighbor' claim from the start. I'm going to

Vote: oEJo, FoS: STD, armlx

.
Also,

Unvote: Gun, Vote: Rope

[CarnCarn]

Huh? Why do you think that?

[CarnCarn]

Santos was definately town. The case against oEJo is based on the symmetry arguments mentioned earlier. I FoS'd people for arguing that Santos was scum even after he claimed 'Neighbor' (the first one to, and with correct form), saying that the form didn't matter, etc.

[CarnCarn]

Well that blows.

Unfortunately it doesn't help me prove myself as town,

unless we can possibly get an alignment with Santos' death?

CarnCarn, why was Santos 'defin

i

tely town'?

Uhh, wow. First of all, he quoted his exact role PM, win condition, everything. The mod confirmed this if you read the death scene carefully enough.

Also, the fact that you don't realize this means that your own role PM is quite different, and the odds that you are scum are quite high now.

[CarnCarn]

His role was Neighbor. Not 'protown Neighbor'

Check the win condition
I doubt he was making it up/faking it. The mod said that he revealed "exactly" what he was. I am certain he was protown.

[CarnCarn]

Also, see mod comments in 609. lol

[CarnCarn]

'You are a Neighbor, your neighbor is (oEJo), each night you may talk to him.

You do not know what alignment he is, only that you can talk to him.

During the day, you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.'

How does this imply his neighbor is town?

[CarnCarn]

Also, note the "Neighbor" and "neighbor" and why I made a fuss about it earlier.

[CarnCarn]

Why would you skim over the claim? That just doesn't make sense since that's the reason he got modkilled.

[CarnCarn]

rib, I disagree. Why gamble and what makes you think scum would kill him tonight? They would surely prefer to take out PRs instead of an opposing team member N1.

[CarnCarn]

I'm voting Rope because he was voting Gun under no pressure. I don't really have anything better to go on, as far as weapon goes.

[CarnCarn]

My take is that scum would naturally try to vote for the weapon they are immune to (under no pressure) and would try to WIFOM out if they are pressured. Like I said, it's not much to go on either way, but that's my reasoning.

[CarnCarn]

If Oejo is town, he will post his PM now.

No... why are you even suggesting this?

FoS: Battle Mage

[CarnCarn]

oh and CarnCarn is obvscum.

lol. Yes I'm scum for being the one to argue that Santos Neighbor claim was accurate even before the reveal and for pointing out the doubts about Neighbor and neighbor.

And yeah, I don't like the idea of using modkills to game the system, which the mod already addressed above (in your post 655).

[CarnCarn]

You're scum because of your edgy response to a potential game-breaking win for the town.

I don't see it as game breaking because, if we keep going until we hit scum, then we've possibly killed a lot more townies than scum...

[CarnCarn]

BM it's a lot more complicated than that. By revealing, a player is modkilled, end of story, they lose, we lose a townie.
With NKs, there's really no predicting what can happen as there are decisions to be made about weapons, etc. (as there are with lynching as well).
Basically, there's no point to the reveal strategy since, if you are scum, there is no reason to reveal (since presumably you out your partners as well by doing so), might as well take a 50-50 chance on the lynch, and if you are town, you just lose AND you decrease the odds of winning for the rest of town anyway. So, even under your philosophy where you still consider yourself as town after being modkilled, there's no reason to reveal.

[CarnCarn]

BM is right in that if we could infinite lynch, we would

What is the reasoning behind this? Of course, I understand that skipping the Night phase is great for town; is that what you mean?

[CarnCarn]

So you should be voting me now then, right BM?

Also, just FYI, even if the modkill didn't end the day, I wouldn't have posted my PM.

why?

and umm...why?

BM

It doesn't look like anyone else is actually agreeing with Battle Mage's plan, but if it actually gets used you can count on me abandoning this game. I'm not playing a game where people purposely break the rules to win. That ruins the entire fun of mafia.

[CarnCarn]

Unvote: oEJo

I want to talk about this some more.

[CarnCarn]

A post from before the third Neighbor group was revealed:

I am a neighbours with Santos.

armlx and CarnCarn are also neighbours.

As armlx has already pointed out, this setup of neighbours is most likely symmetric. It just makes sense.

If Santos, for some obscure reason flips town, I'm assuming armlx and CarnCarn are scum - I doubt this though.

I'm quite sure one of armlx and CarnCarn are scum.

Somebody on the rope wagon should vote gun now.

Emphasis added. In this post, oEJo explains his reasoning behind his symmetry vote for Santos, arguing that because he is town himself, Santos must be scum, and that one of armlx and I must also be scum.
This is logical, of course, but also heavy WIFOM. In a more recent post:

The only reasons I'm suspected are:

a) I didn't read Santos' PM-claim carefully enough
b) armlx and CarnCarn seem town. (and thus I am either in the T-S1 group or T-S2 group)

Yes?

Are you actually now saying that you think both of us are town? Or are you saying that it is just a general impression that should be wrong?
The weird thing is, Santos only suspected you after you used the symmetry argument against him yourself. Even before you revealed yourself as his Neighbor, people had said that, by symmetry, one of each group would be scum, but he didn't believe it:

I just can't believe oEJo was so quick to put me on the stocks...I mean, why not try chatting one night with each other at all? How can he assume such simple logic that I am scum without referring to anything else?

Of course, he doesn't have any inside information about oEJo's alignment or anything, but all of this just made me step back and reconsider the symmetry theory.
I saw nothing as blatantly scummy from oEJo, although, with a rather sparse posting record (and basically no new thoughts after the third mason group was revealed), it's hard to gather much anyway. What I'm worried about is assuming oEJo is scum and leaving the rest of this to the symmetry theory.
I can see the mod just as easily putting in 2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair just to throw us off the track and not semi-break the game by lynching exclusively Neighbors based off a symmetry idea, essentially punishing us for employing this type of strategy, which seems like it would favor town under the current symmetry argument.
Basically, my fear is that, in the worst case scenario, the town lynches 4 protown Neighbors and basically loses if it just sticks to this strategy.

So, what are people's thoughts? Do you think a T-T, T-S1, T-S2 pattern is likely or is the mod more likely to make the pairings so that town would be punished for lynching along the lines of the symmetry argument? Like I said, after thinking about this a bit more, it seems just as likely that the mod would choose the latter setup as he would the former.
I'm especially interested in hearing armlx's thoughts since I think he originally brought up this symmetry idea.

[CarnCarn]

By baiting BM to vote you while you are at L-1? I fail to see how that is townie at all.

Well, if oEJo was really scum, there's no need to "bait" someone to hammer him, because he could just self-hammer. Of course, he doesn't and since the hammer vote can be incriminating if he flips up town, he won't do so if he is town. "Baiting" someone you think is scummy to hammer you, if you are town and about to get lynched, seems pretty protown to me.

[CarnCarn]

Guess that leaves oEJo.

So you don't see this alternative as a reasonable possibility?

2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair

[CarnCarn]

Santos II replaces Sineish.

lol

I wanted to consider the possibility that there were similar roles that were just written differently for the sake of throwing us off.

Huh?

Also, what is BM's position on oEJo now that he knows he won't post his role PM?

[CarnCarn]

However, since oEJo has said they had the exact same role, that rules out that possibility.

You are ruling out the possibility of alternate symmetry because oEJo has the same role PM? I would think that makes the alternate symmetry

more

likely. Also, if you believe he does have the same role PM (and it seems like you do, since you said it rules out alternate symmetry), why are you voting him?

FoS: ribwich

[CarnCarn]

No no no. You misunderstood me. I said it rules out the possibility of alternate role PMs being used for the same role. I still very much believe there could be alternate symmetry.

OK, but how does any of this explain your re-vote?

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

Yes, I don't have a night action.

Okay, that was all I needed to hear.

Vote: oEJo

First of all, do you believe oEJo is telling the truth about his role PM being the same? From everything I've read, I think you are believe this.
Second, if you do believe this, why did you choose to vote him again?
If you don't think he is telling the truth, then how are you ruling out the possibility of alternate role PMs?

[CarnCarn]

I was considering the possibility that oEJo could have gotten something like this for a role PM. "You and Santos are neighbors and can talk at night You win when all anti town roles are dead." It's the same role as what Santos and the other pro-town neighbors have, but it's worded completely differently.

You are a Townie , during the night you sleep in, and during the day you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun.

You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

Notice that the win condition of the Townie PM is the exact same as Santos' win condition. I doubt there would have been a differently worded protown win condition for oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

Actually, now that I think about it, this makes me a bit suspicious of your own win condition. Why are you thinking there there would be an alternately worded win condition when the mod already gave the protown win condition AND after Santos restated it in a non-vanilla protown role?

Vote: ribwich

[CarnCarn]

But the rest of the flavor is almost identical, too...

You are a Townie , during the night you sleep in, and

during the day you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

'You are a Neighbor, your neighbor is (oEJo), each night you may talk to him. You do not know what alignment he is, only that you can talk to him.

During the day, you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

'

I think I get your point, but it was a pretty large stretch and I'm still puzzled about why you thought there could be an alternate protown neighbor message.

[CarnCarn]

oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?

Yes.
Yeah, I don't know, I just don't see anything conclusive that says oEJo is likely to be scum, with the exception of his slip-up about not being sure if Santos I was town.
Like I said, I have some doubts about the original neighbor symmetry argument and it shouldn't be used as a reason to lynch (unless we are OK with possibly losing a townie at the cost of gaining that information about the neighbor setup).

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Also, if there is indeed a fourth neighbor pair, I would assume this is as good a time as any for them to step forward.

[CarnCarn]

Also, if there is indeed a fourth neighbor pair, I would assume this is as good a time as any for them to step forward.

That is, if they don't step forward today, I don't think any new Neighbor claims should be taken seriously.

[CarnCarn]

Sineish was voting gun in the VC before Santos II unvoted above.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Looks better on paper when making a set up.

I guess. But in terms of breakability, I would assume the mod would prefer the alternate symmetry. Anyway, I'm moving back towards hammering oEJo, even if it only means gathering info about the neighbor groupings.
Any final thoughts oEJo?

[CarnCarn]

Why BM? Do you think he is scum?

[CarnCarn]

1) We have a cop for sure?
2) We want to lose a cop over lynching one scum?

Hint: The answers start with N.

From the signup thread:

Different Mechanics:

• Each Mafia group has to choose whether their kill can affect pro-town people or members of the opposite group
  
• The town, in addition to choosing who to lynch, has to choose which Mafia group can be lynched that day. Either the lynch is by a rope (which the Corsican group is immune to) or by a gun (which the Sicilians are immune to).
  
• Once a majority of people are voting for the same player, then which ever of rope or gun has more votes will be the method used. If they have the same amount of votes, which ever got to the amount first will be used.
  
• If any pro-town people with night-choices are in the setup, they have to choose whether their choice affects Corsican or Sicilian. For example, a Doctor has to choose whether he/she can protect from Corsican kills or whether he/she can protect from Sicillian kills each night, which a Cop has to choose whether they get a guilty on Corsicans or Sicilians each night.

So, yeah, nothing for sure, but odds are there are probably pairs. Also, it seems kind of useless/dangerous to have both cops investigate the same person and both claim their results.

[CarnCarn]

D'oh, not pairs, I read through that too quickly. Only one person has to choose which they want to protect from/investigate on. Still, it sounds like a bad plan.

[CarnCarn]

Mod: Can we get a prod on Puta Puta/Thunder/Rich?

Whoever they are they haven't added

anything

to this game...

Confirmed.

What's a SPAG?

Greetings...I see some new faces..and some very familiar ones.. I will read the thread and post more later

Hi

Greetings...I see some new faces..and some very familiar ones.. I will read the thread and post more later

...and u never did....

That's everything. 4 combined posts, one of which was about themselves.

[CarnCarn]

@ribwich: . . .

That's what I get for viewing players in isolation. Sorry 'bout that. That changes alot actually. My opinion of you has gone from scum to neutral, as I was working with flawed data.

Yeah, you should really try to read in context. May change your opinion on some people.

Will make a more substantive post later, just checking in for now.

Vote: Gun

[CarnCarn]

I didnt want to hammer OeJo yesterday. It's been a long time since ive tried to toy with the rules like that. The idea was to make it LOOK like i hammered, without actually hammering

You are referring to this, correct?

Game Rules
2. During Day, you may vote for one player at a time. Votes must be bold or they will not be counted.

Unvoting is optional.

Emphasis added.
And your hammer post:

*shrug*

Vote: Santos

jk

Vote: OeJo

BM

[CarnCarn]

I believe that is L-1 on oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun

If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.

[CarnCarn]

What does everyone think of armlx's analysis?

Hold please, I did a full reread and here is what I got.

Post 27: If ZTR is scum, 1 of RBT and STD is definitely scum with him.
Post 33: Moses votes gun, just tracking this as he is a person of interest.
Post 41: Not a random vote ZTR? By known scum?
Post 48: +1 town point for Moses worrying about vote shuffling and hammering.
Post 94: Pretty sure ZTR is just newb scum now.
Post 95: See comment on post 70.
Post 96: Really? See comments on 70 and 95, but where did his suspicion from his last vote go?
Post 107: P sure Emp is not mafia with oEJo. Blatant wagon here.
Post 120: REACH by BM. Not sure if its atypical of him, but notable. Also the Santos reach. I wouldn’t mind a BM wagon.
Post 148: BM = opportunist.
Post 156: More reach by moses.
Post 170: Delay method of choice? Interesting.
Post 179: Excuse for hoping on a future early easy lynch by STD?
Post 182: More worries on ZTR’s part about his image in game.
Post 193: Trying to get more lynches out of the group then necessary (possible this point is just me making his post scummy b/c I think he is scum).
Post 205: REACH.

BM becomes more typical over the next couple pages.

Post 302: Really, higher chance of being NK’ed? Explain Zazier.

BM pushing gun on Santos implies him not being scum with oEJo, as if he was scum that didn’t die to gun he would push rope to get a lynch out of it.

Smiley tell from ZTR in post 410.

I concur with BM’s 430 for the record. Emp is pretty obv town this game. He’s being maximally helpful for him.

I forgot HP was the one of the 2 who claimed. That was pro-town.

Post 479: ZTR’s comment, and he is voting Santos still… gosh. OBV scum.

Needs more explain from Socio.

BM avoided voting oEJo post mod kill. Interesting.

Moses mini-wagons Ribwich on page 30. Noteable

The BM hammer me comment is odd. Probably just WIFOM and should be ignored.

Scummy:
Moses (possible tunnel vision here)
ZTR

Other scum are probably people that lied low and just rode out the Santos issue without taking a prominent stance. I'm leaning PutaPuta + Santos 2, maybe Zazier, off chance of BM or Socio. Then 1 of HP and STD.

Also, 2 questions for STD.

1) Have you ever played with Empking other then this game?

2) Who of the other neighbors do you think is the second scum?

oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.

I would like to hear from ZTR, especially, who hasn't posted at all today.
Also, from armlx's view of post 27, we know that RBT is town (NK'd), so that implies ZTR and STD as scum together, and the opposite mafia from oEJo. That is, ZTR and STD would be Gun immune.

Also, ZazieR, can you explain your comments about higher chance of being NK'd (post 302)?

[CarnCarn]

Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun

If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.

Let's say I'm Sicilian and thus immune to guns. There's a big wagon piling up on you. I know you're not part of my mafia, but don't know whether you're scum or town. If we lynch you with gun (which again, I'm immune to in this hypothetical situation), I can be certain it will kill you. However, if we lynch you with rope, you'll only die if you're town. I think it might be in scum's best interest for lynches to fail initially, because it forces us to repeat them the next day, like we're doing to oEJo.

My theory is based on the idea that the town is less prone to effectively scumhunt when there's such an obvious lynch on the table. Look at how sparse our conversation has been today and how we're already at L-1.

That's an interesting idea, sure. Although I'm not sure why mafia A would prefer a no-lynch to a lynch of mafia B or town. It

could

provide one more night kill, but the no-lynched person would also make good vig-fodder. I'm not sure why mafia A would try that D1.
This is perhaps getting off track and speculating about scum's decision-making behavior, so I think I'll leave this issue for now.

I also think it's time for a hammer:

Vote: oEJo

I will wait for ZTR, STD and ZazieR's comments tomorrow, since I don't foresee them changing my mind today.

[CarnCarn]

Vote: ZTR
Vote: Rope

[CarnCarn]

Oh, reasons and other stuff:

Also, from armlx's view of post 27, we know that RBT is town (NK'd), so that implies ZTR and STD as scum together, and the opposite mafia from oEJo. That is, ZTR and STD would be Gun immune.

Also, ZazieR, can you explain your comments about higher chance of being NK'd (post 302)?

[CarnCarn]

^^You obviously had that written up before the day opened^^

[CarnCarn]

How does 1 NK N1 and no NKs last night fit into your analysis? Granted, it's a WCS analysis, but what do you think now? Do the night results change it at all? I.e., could there be something to balance out having more scum?

[CarnCarn]

I will be V/LA 12/3-12/4.

[CarnCarn]

Your precursors were scum, therefore you are scum. You've done nothing to suggest being protown to me, although i will acknowledge that you are playing much better than they did

What are you talking about? His precursors had like 4 posts total for the game and I don't recall you EVER being suspicious about that.

[CarnCarn]

Detspeed, could you name the win condition for the town, please?

I don't know exactly what you are hoping to achieve with this question, but it has potential to get someone modkilled.

FoS: hp [leaves]

[CarnCarn]

Yeah, I don't think it's vote-worthy. At best, he was trying to catch a scum who didn't read the thread or the rules, but otherwise the point of that question is lost on me. The cynic view is that he was aiming for a mod-kill, but this is assuming hp [leaves] is scum, then attributing a behavior to him, which is not really a logical argument.

[CarnCarn]

Mod: Can we get a prod/replacement on ZTR? Thanks.

[CarnCarn]

Idea: Cop investigates oEJo tonight and if he is NOT scum, then we move on. If he is scum, then we lynch him tomorrow?

Thoughts----

This, I think, is what Kairyuu and Moses are referring to. But really a null-tell in context, IMO.

[CarnCarn]

Apparently people don't realize I was taking the role of TWO different roles.

1) I was lynched as a townie
2) Now you're saying that I'm scum

Where is your proof? You keep showing me quotes from when I was 'Santos I' not Santos II. Hello?

That quote about wanting the cop to investigate oEJo was made by Santos II (after Santos I was modkilled).

[CarnCarn]

HP[Leave] has tried to have a member of a town killed without doing it himself and waisting a night vote.

For the record, you would be the last person on my nightkill list as your death would clearly reveal my alliance.

Wow:

Unvote: ZTR
Vote: hp [leaves]

[CarnCarn]

Why CC? Read the post again.

I read it a few times. I'd like to explain, but sort of busy ATM. Will be back Saturday with an explanation.

[CarnCarn]

Vote:ZTR
Vote: Rope

Mod: Did ZTR ever pick up his prod?

Yes.

[CarnCarn]

Mod: Did ZTR ever pick up his prod?

Yes.

Mod: Recently? His last post was over a month ago (Nov 8).

He did pick it up. I have prodded him again however.

[CarnCarn]

ZTR, are you Save the Dragons/Detspeed's scumbuddy?

[CarnCarn]

QL = quicklynch

The others also need to check in and ZTR should respond to armlx's points.

[CarnCarn]

I also have no idea why you would ask me for a full claim if my entire PM is in the first post.

Were you claiming townie before? No. So....

I wasn't claiming mafia either.

So what is this, then:

Vote:STD

Because I don't want any of that in my game.

Why would you vote our mafia partne-- OH I GET IT

Vote: STD

[CarnCarn]

Why did BM ask for replacement? Was the reason ever revealed?

Right now, I want to go back and reread. The lack of activity in the game the past 3 days, though, means we have basically no info from ribwich, ZazieR, SocioPath, and BM during that time. Today should involve much more discussion.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, I think the 2 of each mafia is probably correct at this point. So, that leaves 1 of each mafia, with 7 alive. There's still 2 NKs/night, if we don't lynch scum today.
Assuming we mislynch today, that leaves 4 townies, 2 mafia, but the mafia are different teams. This is not LyLo, so what are the benefits of massclaiming today versus tomorrow? Is it worth the risk?

Personally, I think it is worth the risk because, given so little information about most of the people alive right now, I think the odds of a mislynch or a no-lynch (like what happened to oEJo day 1) are probably high. Massclaim should hopefully give us a lot more info about people. Cop investigations, for example, should give us plenty of new info (assuming a cop exists).

[CarnCarn]

@ZazieR, Santos, SocioPath (and BM and ribwich replacements):

What do you think about massclaiming now?

Mod: Can you prod SocioPath please?

It's only been 60 hours since day started. I'll prod him with a sharp stick tomorrow, if necessary. - Tar

[CarnCarn]

either the neighbours are scum, or 4 of the remaining five are, assuming 3/3 in terms of each scumgroup.

Any reason why 3/3 instead of 2/2?

[CarnCarn]

I'm not sure about SP, but Santos' Detspeed hammer on 971 seems like a lot of scum bussing, especially given Santos' posts immediately before that.

[CarnCarn]

If we mass claim, I prefer in order of scumminess. I would select Santos to claim first, then he would select someone else to claim next, then that person claims and picks another person to claim, etc.

Unless someone wants to claim first.

[CarnCarn]

Which do you prize more- getting it done soon, or getting the order you want?

The order, and having everyone agree to massclaim first (ZazieR, SocioPath, and Santos haven't said anything yet about this). We're not under any time restrictions, I believe.

[CarnCarn]

yeah:

If we mass claim, I prefer in order of scumminess. I would select Santos to claim first, then he would select someone else to claim next, then that person claims and picks another person to claim, etc.

This is popcorn. We could also all agree to an order beforehand. I don't think it will make a huge difference, if any at all, really.

[CarnCarn]

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

um, lol. Again, I'm a Neighbor (protown, obv). Are we actually going through with massclaim, now? I dunno if Santos was claiming seriously. If we're all agreed to claim, and if Santos was serious, then I'll pick someone to go next.

[CarnCarn]

A side note: the scum know for sure that armlx and I are town (unless the neighbors were not grouped symmetrically, which I doubt at this point).

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

I pick ZazieR to claim next.

[CarnCarn]

Read sig.

[CarnCarn]

Sig says:

LA until Wednesday, January 7

[CarnCarn]

I'm here, waiting for ZazieR to claim next.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

Bad shit.

Like what

[CarnCarn]

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

Bad shit.

Like what

Gives one group more info then the other, which leads to differing win percentages between supposedly even groups.

I don't really think it does. For example, if we have:

S1-T, S2-T, and S1-T again

The S1 still doesn't know what their neighbor's alignment is. They have to play guess the mod and decide whether their neighbor is town or opposite mafia, which is the whole point of Neighbor anyway. If they assume symmetry, then S1 assumes one neighbor is scum and another town. If they don't think it's symmetry, then they're both town from S1's perspective. But, all of this is contingent on them trying to guess the mod correctly, which means they really don't have any more info than the other team, except to know that there are at least 2 neighbor groups, knowledge which I don't really see as helping that much.

This is really just for curiosity, I guess, while we wait for SocioPath to claim. Like The Fonz, I too think symmetry is strongly suggested here.

[CarnCarn]

SocioPath's claim reeks.

[CarnCarn]

PF, Santos is like 100% scum with STD/Detspeed. His willingness to protect oEJo D1 doesn't in any way mean that he's more likely to be buddies with oEJo. I think Moses made this very good point earlier: Scum perfer mislynches so that they have more NKs - Santos would protect oEJo D1 even if he were opposite mafia from oEJo.

The 3/3 situation is something I don't want to think about because, then, it's pretty much academic that I lose anyway.

Vote: Rope

[CarnCarn]

I just thought of a scenario where Santos could be town, but its really stupid and he gained nothing over a straight up vanilla claim if he is.

Sure, but:
1) He would have told us by now if he's gambitting (right?)
2) His previous actions suggest he's not town anyway.

Vote: Santos

[CarnCarn]

Vote: Santos

Good luck mafia

[CarnCarn]

I agree, this was a good setup by bird1111.

Off the top of my head, the one thing I'm curious to hear is from Santos about why he claimed scum.

Also, armlx not dying last night gave me a pause and for a moment I thought he was actually scum. But, then I thought about Socio's claim again and it clearly contradicted the rules so I went back to Socio-scum.

Really good work finishing this off for a town win guys.

[CarnCarn]

I sympathize with ZTR on this, but I can see where Tar and bird are coming from, too. I think it's controversial and there is no standardized policy regarding this. Was ZTR really quoting his PM or just quoting the mod? It's ambiguous to me, but I can understand how others would see it the opposite way.

In this case, I don't think it would have affected the game that much because it looked like ZTR was going to be lynched that day anyway.

[CarnCarn]

I claimed scum because I was trying to divert the attention away from the other scum. I just wanted a scum victory.

You do realize that they weren't on your side, right? So you went out of your way to lose. For the second time this game.

That.

Also, I would have assumed the cop would investigate the neighbors for the opposite mafia of oEJo (Corsican). That way, you could definately clear someone as town (unless one neighbor pair happened to be S1-S2, which wasn't likely).