Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[CarnCarn]

Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun

If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.

Let's say I'm Sicilian and thus immune to guns. There's a big wagon piling up on you. I know you're not part of my mafia, but don't know whether you're scum or town. If we lynch you with gun (which again, I'm immune to in this hypothetical situation), I can be certain it will kill you. However, if we lynch you with rope, you'll only die if you're town. I think it might be in scum's best interest for lynches to fail initially, because it forces us to repeat them the next day, like we're doing to oEJo.

My theory is based on the idea that the town is less prone to effectively scumhunt when there's such an obvious lynch on the table. Look at how sparse our conversation has been today and how we're already at L-1.

That's an interesting idea, sure. Although I'm not sure why mafia A would prefer a no-lynch to a lynch of mafia B or town. It

could

provide one more night kill, but the no-lynched person would also make good vig-fodder. I'm not sure why mafia A would try that D1.
This is perhaps getting off track and speculating about scum's decision-making behavior, so I think I'll leave this issue for now.

I also think it's time for a hammer:

Vote: oEJo

I will wait for ZTR, STD and ZazieR's comments tomorrow, since I don't foresee them changing my mind today.

[Moses le fou]

Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun

If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.

Let's say I'm Sicilian and thus immune to guns. There's a big wagon piling up on you. I know you're not part of my mafia, but don't know whether you're scum or town. If we lynch you with gun (which again, I'm immune to in this hypothetical situation), I can be certain it will kill you. However, if we lynch you with rope, you'll only die if you're town. I think it might be in scum's best interest for lynches to fail initially, because it forces us to repeat them the next day, like we're doing to oEJo.

My theory is based on the idea that the town is less prone to effectively scumhunt when there's such an obvious lynch on the table. Look at how sparse our conversation has been today and how we're already at L-1.

That's an interesting idea, sure. Although I'm not sure why mafia A would prefer a no-lynch to a lynch of mafia B or town. It

could

provide one more night kill, but the no-lynched person would also make good vig-fodder. I'm not sure why mafia A would try that D1.
This is perhaps getting off track and speculating about scum's decision-making behavior, so I think I'll leave this issue for now.

I also think it's time for a hammer:

Vote: oEJo

I will wait for ZTR, STD and ZazieR's comments tomorrow, since I don't foresee them changing my mind today.

Well, they would get a town-lynch no matter what method they choose. However, if we try to lynch somebody and it fails, it benefits the opposing mafia because that person will be the town's focus the following day. And while you point out the idea that a vig could take that person out, I should note that it didn't happen last night with oEJo, and even if it did, that still works for the opposing mafia as that means the vig wasn't going to target one of their own.

[bird1111]

That's a lynch.

You shoot oEJo with the gun that you set up. He dies, angry that you got him. He clearly must have been a Corsican. Considering what both he and Santos said when they were alive, he must have been a Neighbor also.

oEJo, Corsican Neighbor, lynched with a Gun Day 2.

Night 2 begins, choices due in 72 hours.

[bird1111]

You wake up to find that no one died last night.

Day 3 begins, with 13 alive it is 7 to lynch.

Save the Dragons has requested replacement, so looking for one now.

[bird1111]

Detspeed replaces Save the Dragons.

[armlx]

Well, one of my first suspects is obviously Detspeed. There were a few things I deliberately left out of my reread analysis until he could answer questions.

Post 70: STD wagons Emp.

STD called HP scummy in 474 while claiming neighbor, and implied I was less scummy.

STD saying that scum couldn’t day talk is a possible slip.

Unfortunately, the most important one towards any strong tell was the middle one, hence the point of me asking him what other neighbor was scum in his opinion, and that one was specific to him.

However, I want a general analysis of the game by him before concluding here. And as per my previous post.

Vote ZTR

[CarnCarn]

Vote: ZTR
Vote: Rope

[CarnCarn]

Oh, reasons and other stuff:

Also, from armlx's view of post 27, we know that RBT is town (NK'd), so that implies ZTR and STD as scum together, and the opposite mafia from oEJo. That is, ZTR and STD would be Gun immune.

Also, ZazieR, can you explain your comments about higher chance of being NK'd (post 302)?

[armlx]

Oh yeah, about that stuff.

Vote Rope

[Kairyuu]

Time for some balance theory from me.

Based on the fact that oEJo flipped scum I am perfectly amenable with the idea of symmetry that armlx proposed ages ago.

Here's my own contribution:

We have 4 scum, divided up 2 and 2 into the two scum teams. How do I know this? Simple, three player scum teams would be physically impossible if the town would have any chance at all to win. Here's why.

-3 scum plus 3 scum equals 6/16 players as scum, each with a kill at Night.

-Assume one successful lynch of scum and two successful kills of townies each cycle, with one scum group being eliminated completely before another is hit. That gives us:
-After D1 = 15 (5 scum)
-After N1 = 13 (5 scum)
-After D2 = 12 (4 scum)
-After N2 = 10 (4 scum)
-After D3 = 9 (3 scum)
See the problem yet? In this situation the town gets only 1 mislynch, and only gets that once one scum faction is entirely gone. To illustrate this point, let's look at the same situation, assuming the town lynches scum of alternating factions on successive Days. That would give us:
-After D1 = 15 (5 scum)
-After N1 = 13 (5 scum)
-After D2 = 12 (4 scum)
-After N2 = 10 (4 scum)
-After D3 = 9 (3 scum)
-After N3 = 7 (3 scum)
-After D4 = 6 (2 scum)
-After N4 = 4 (2 scum)
-After D5 = 3 (1 scum)
-After N5 = 2 (1 scum)
That's a scum win, with the only thing up in the air being which faction is the final winner.

Now if you factor in the fact that the town needs to successfully determine which weapon to use on each scum, the town tends more towards a tendancy to leave each scum alive for a day through a failed lynch. Let's look at this situation now, assuming that one half of the town lynches fail the first time. We'll factor in the same deal for the scum as well, even though their percentage to hit successfully is signifigantly higher (we assume one faction is eliminated entirely as in the first example):
-After D1 = 16 (6 scum)
-After N1 = 14 (6 scum)
-After D2 = 13 (5 scum)
-After N2 = 13 (5 scum)
-After D3 = 13 (5 scum)
-After N3 = 11 (5 scum)
-After D4 = 10 (4 scum)
-After N4 = 10 (4 scum)
-After D5 = 10 (4 scum)
-After N5 = 8 (4 scum)
-After D6 = 7 (3 scum)
At this point the miss chance goes away for both parties because they know that each other are the only remaining group. And wouldn't you know, it's LyLo. If we assume the alternating situation like in my second example, then the town loses in this fashion:
-After N6 = 7 (3 scum)
-After D7 = 7 (3 scum)
-After N7 = 7 (3 scum)
-After D8 = 6 (2 scum)
-After N8 = 4 (2 scum)
-After D9 = 4 (2 scum)
-After N9 = 4 (2 scum)
-After D10 = 3 (1 scum)
-After N10 = 2 (1 scum)
And there's the same situation, a scum win, with the only variable being which faction wins the prize.

No matter how you look at it, the town has, at most, one mislynch, and then only late in the game. This would be unreasonable odds for the town to expect to win with. Cut the scum teams down to two players each and you solve all of the problems, giving the town a fighting chance of winning with good play.

What does all of this mean, you ask? It means that if armlx is right about the neighbor scum ratio, we have another scum guarenteed among 4 players.

That said, I'd like to see how this case of yours pans out armlx. I'm not quite sold on it yet though. I'll have to reread your original case. Until then,

vote: ribwich
vote: gun

My point about the alteration of the lynch type at the end of D1 is right back on the table, since the way it panned out, we would have lynched scum D1 if not for that.

[CarnCarn]

^^You obviously had that written up before the day opened^^

[Kairyuu]

Nope. I saw the thread was open and I started writing it up. I had the math planned out in my head from a day or two ago. Stuff like this is sorta my thing. I enjoy working out bits of setups.

[CarnCarn]

How does 1 NK N1 and no NKs last night fit into your analysis? Granted, it's a WCS analysis, but what do you think now? Do the night results change it at all? I.e., could there be something to balance out having more scum?

[Kairyuu]

Frankly, I'm confused at the results of the Night actions thus far. RBT dying N1 confused the hell out of me because it means that (in all likelyhood) one of the scum groups decided to kill a lurker who had posted nothing but one-liners over a more active and productive player. No deaths last night threw me completely for a loop as well. I'd say that either we have some damn good power roles, the scum are trying to hit each other and hitting townies instead (resulting in no kill), they are accidentally hitting each other when shooting for townies (still no kill), or they are serious lurkers who just forgot to put in night actions.

No matter which of those situations are true, the fact remains that in order to make a game balanced, a mod must take into consideration perfect play from both sides as possible outcomes (as my runthough does). If you have to rely on steller play from the town and poor play/luck from the scum in order to give the town a win, then the setup is unbalanced.

So, to answer your question, no, I don't see the NKs, or lack thereof, to have much, if any, effect on the balance necessity.

[ribwich]

If you have to rely on steller play from the town and poor play/luck from the scum in order to give the town a win, then the setup is unbalanced.

I think what CarnCarn is getting at is there could be a significantly larger number of power roles in this game to balance it out, which I do agree could be a possibility.

Since there was only one kill N1, I think a power role would almost have to be involved since there weren't any kills N2. Assuming the only reason one of the scum teams failed in their kill N1 was because they used the wrong method, the only thing they would need to do is switch their method for N2.

[armlx]

Your assumption is based on 0 power roles.

10-2 vanilla is abysmal for the town. 9-3 with 2 masons, a doc, and a vig is fine. Just saying.

[Kairyuu]

@ribwich:

I think what CarnCarn is getting at is there could be a significantly larger number of power roles in this game to balance it out, which I do agree could be a possibility.

Except that something like that would make it worse. See below:

Because the more complicated a game is, the more difficult it is for the Town, there comes a point where increasing the number of pro-Town power roles may actually tilt the game balance in favour of the Mafia.

I don't think that there would be many power roles, since the game is already rather complex as it stands currently, and to make it more complicated by throwing in a bunch of power roles would make for a massive headache for the players instead of making it more interesting. I doubt bird would do that to us.

Since there was only one kill N1, I think a power role would almost have to be involved since there weren't any kills N2. Assuming the only reason one of the scum teams failed in their kill N1 was because they used the wrong method, the only thing they would need to do is switch their method for N2.

There is a problem here. You fail to take into account three of my four scenerios. What about lurker scum who missed deadline? What about scumteams targetting townies specifically who hit scum N1? What about scumteams targetting opposing teams but hit townies N1? Personally, given the fact that several players failed to post at all D2, I would say that the lurker scum possibility is higher than average.

Also, in essence, we are in a situation very near to the third situation i proposed in my scenerios. We had no lynch D1, but the equivalent of 2 NKs (because both the modkill and the nk flipped town). Then we had a scum lynch D2 and no NKs. That puts up at the exact D3 start point that I mentioned up there. If we have 6 scum then we're well on our way to losing unless we can play damn near perfectly, because if either scenerio 3 or 4 are in effect (if we assume 6 scum), then the best we can hope for is LyLo with a scumgroup gone.

@armlx:

Your assumption is based on 0 power roles.

10-2 vanilla is abysmal for the town. 9-3 with 2 masons, a doc, and a vig is fine. Just saying.

And it seems we must disagree. I consider 10-2 vanilla to be pretty decent, because the town gets 3 mislynches before LyLo, as opposed to 2 in a 9-3 setup. Also, masons and a doc are very nice, but tossing in the vig hurts the town tremendously by getting rid of an available mislynch if the vig shoots just once without the doc successfully blocking a scum kill (assuming said vig hits town, as happens more than it should). And then we have to get into the whole topic of vig accuracy and SK WIFOM. Also into the realm of doc being one of the easiest scum fakeclaims, and the WIFOM of scum claiming masons. There are far too many variables to say that the power role game is better than the vanilla game.

[armlx]

I don't think that there would be many power roles, since the game is already rather complex as it stands currently, and to make it more complicated by throwing in a bunch of power roles would make for a massive headache for the players instead of making it more interesting. I doubt bird would do that to us.

Disagree.

And it seems we must disagree. I consider 10-2 vanilla to be pretty decent, because the town gets 3 mislynches before LyLo, as opposed to 2 in a 9-3 setup. Also, masons and a doc are very nice, but tossing in the vig hurts the town tremendously by getting rid of an available mislynch if the vig shoots just once without the doc successfully blocking a scum kill (assuming said vig hits town, as happens more than it should). And then we have to get into the whole topic of vig accuracy and SK WIFOM. Also into the realm of doc being one of the easiest scum fakeclaims, and the WIFOM of scum claiming masons. There are far too many variables to say that the power role game is better than the vanilla game.

Clearly, you don't understand vigmath. In the 9-3, 2 vig kills + 2 lynches pre loss = 4 deaths caused by the town minimum, of which 2 are higher probability to cause scum deaths as the vig is confirmed town for them. If vig never kills with night start there are only 3 town caused deaths minimum. Less shots to hit the scum is bad.

You are arguing things that Xyl has proved incorrect with mathematical data. Doc and vig are both +EV for the town. You are citing corner cases compared to their net return.

And show me a 10-2 where town has won. Then you can argue this.

[Detspeed]

I'm still tring to get caught up so I will leave the vote uncast for now. I do have some suspiciopns, but they can not be proven yet and I don't have enough to send someone to the galows.

I just want to say go town!

[Santos]

Since STD disappeared, I will wait for Detspeed to catch up and answer the previously asked questions directed at Save the Dragons.

[Battle Mage]

Vote: Kairyuu

BM

[CarnCarn]

I will be V/LA 12/3-12/4.

[Kairyuu]

@armlx:

Disagree.

Thank you. Now tell me why.

Clearly, you don't understand vigmath.

You're probably right.

In the 9-3, 2 vig kills + 2 lynches pre loss = 4 deaths caused by the town minimum, of which 2 are higher probability to cause scum deaths as the vig is confirmed town for them. If vig never kills with night start there are only 3 town caused deaths minimum. Less shots to hit the scum is bad.

Ok. More deaths caused by the town is good, I will give you that, but I work based on mislynches before LyLo. I consider losing an available mislynch to be bad, as the town as a whole loses a kill. With a vig you rely too much on the ability of the single player to find the scum.

You are arguing things that Xyl has proved incorrect with mathematical data. Doc and vig are both +EV for the town. You are citing corner cases compared to their net return.

I don't know who Xyl is, so I would obviously have not seen these proofs. Explain to me how I am arguing corner cases. If you have evidence that contradicts my speculation then I'm all ears, but I'd appreciate something more than "you're wrong because this other player you don't know proved it." Can you link me to his/her proofs. I always like to see quantitative data supporting one position or another.

And show me a 10-2 where town has won. Then you can argue this.

Well now, someone is being rather arrogant. I can argue whatever the hell I want, wrong or right. Prove me wrong and I'll shut up, but say I can't argue a point and I'll beat that point to death just to piss you off . I have read upwards of 50 games on MS, and not once have I seen a 10-2 vanilla setup. Obviously that keeps me from being able to show you one where town has won. I have provided my reasoning on this. I look at available mislynches as important. The more the better. Since 3>2, I see 10-2 as better than 9-3 in most cases.

@Detspeed:

I just want to say go town!

Yup. I was wrong. STD was scum. I have never seen a townie do this (and can site a few examples of scum doing it if I need to).

unvote: ribwich
unvote: gun

vote: Detspeed
vote: rope

@BM:

Vote: Kairyuu

You know, I had you pegged as a player who wasn't the type to throw a vote on without a word of reasoning. I expect to see your case against me in your next post. I won't ask you to remove your vote, but I can't exactly respond to your suspicions if they aren't stated, now can I?

[armlx]

Rolling Eyes Thank you. Now tell me why.

Ask me how many set ups I have seen. I expect the set up to be 4 power roles, 2 nillas, 4 town neighbors, 2 scum neighbors, 4 scum nillas.

And Kairyuu, are you saying 1 lynch is more powerful then 2 vig kills?

9-3 has more ways to ensure lynches aren't mislynches, as well as ways (RB/doc/JK's) to make up the missing lynch.

[bird1111]

Bumping the Vote Count onto the next page.