Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[CarnCarn]

I was considering the possibility that oEJo could have gotten something like this for a role PM. "You and Santos are neighbors and can talk at night You win when all anti town roles are dead." It's the same role as what Santos and the other pro-town neighbors have, but it's worded completely differently.

You are a Townie , during the night you sleep in, and during the day you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun.

You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

Notice that the win condition of the Townie PM is the exact same as Santos' win condition. I doubt there would have been a differently worded protown win condition for oEJo.

[CarnCarn]

Actually, now that I think about it, this makes me a bit suspicious of your own win condition. Why are you thinking there there would be an alternately worded win condition when the mod already gave the protown win condition AND after Santos restated it in a non-vanilla protown role?

Vote: ribwich

[ribwich]

The win condition was just part of it. I purposely made it way far off from the original PM for effect.

[CarnCarn]

But the rest of the flavor is almost identical, too...

You are a Townie , during the night you sleep in, and

during the day you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

'You are a Neighbor, your neighbor is (oEJo), each night you may talk to him. You do not know what alignment he is, only that you can talk to him.

During the day, you vote on who you think is a member of the one of the Mafia and whether the lynch should be by rope or by gun. You win when all the Sicilians and Corsicans are dead.

'

I think I get your point, but it was a pretty large stretch and I'm still puzzled about why you thought there could be an alternate protown neighbor message.

[ribwich]

I thought the chances were extremally small, but I have heard of mods doing this type of thing before. I just wanted to do a quick check since I was pretty sure oEJo wasn't going to be able to figure out what I was getting at when I asked him that.

[Santos]

What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.

[Moses le fou]

What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.

Most everybody is for the idea of symmetry on the principle that it favor one mafia over the other if it weren't. If it were, say, T-T T-S1 S1-S2, that would give the first mafia two people to potentially manipulate compared to the second mafia's one (which would be especially unfair in that instance because the second mafia would be trying to manipulate scum instead of town).

On another note, I'm going to

FoS: ribwich

, though I still think oEJo is the better candidate.

And while I have your attention. . . ribwich, why did you say earlier that you had reason to believe that there was a fourth set of neighbours? Do you really think that HALF the players would be in some sort of neighbour set?

[Santos]

I believe almost half would be. There are definitely enough claims to support the majority having 'neighbors'.

[Moses le fou]

For the sake of a paper trail:

Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.

Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it.

There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups (And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)

1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2

There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.

I don't think there's anything that we can get out of the mod edits. The mod has made other mistakes in the vote count, and I think trying to analyze what caused his mistake will lead us nowhere.

I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.

I have been examining Riceballtail's play and I am impressed with his performance. I'm not sure whether I want to follow it or not. There is nothing ambiguous at all in his posting skills. Its either a very good scum poster, or a very careful power role. I aspire to play this way :p

Other people commented on how this looks like Santos is just trying to buddy up to Riceball, but to me it looks like subtle rolefishing. If it was rolefishing, I don't think it did a very good job, because there didn't seem to be any reactions from Riceball to imply that he has a powerrole. But it does look to me that this was Santos's intentions: To get Riceball to slip about having a power role.

As for which lynch method to use, I believe the gun would be the best option. Santos's initial vote was most likely little more than a random vote. But his vote for rope later on seemed like he was trying to trick everybody into thinking that only rope will kill scum. Of course, WIFOM is involved, but I honestly think he was not thinking that far ahead. His post to me looked like he saw pressure was being put on him, so he attempted to find whatever reason he could to get people to vote for rope.

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun

[Battle Mage]

Also, what is BM's position on oEJo now that he knows he won't post his role PM?

I dont really have one. But my gut says hammering him is a bad idea.

BM

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
oEJo (6): Moses le fou, ZazieR, Empking, hp [leaves], ribwich, Save the Dragons
Save the Dragons (1): Riceballtail
Battle Mage (1): SocioPath
ribwich (1): CarnCarn

Not voting (6): PutaPuta, armlx, oEJo, ZTR, Santos II, Battle Mage

With 15 alive it is 8 to lynch.

Lynch Method Vote Count:
Rope (9): Save the Dragons, Empking, Moses le fou, ZazieR, ZTR, CarnCarn, hp [leaves], ribwich, armlx
Gun (5): oEJo, SocioPath, Sineish, Riceballtail, Battle Mage


Not voting for a lynch method (1): PutaPuta

If a lynch were to happen without any change in lynch method votes, the Rope would be used.

[ribwich]

ribwich, why did you say earlier that you had reason to believe that there was a fourth set of neighbours? Do you really think that HALF the players would be in some sort of neighbour set?

I thought I had caught on to a breadcrumb from a player that hasn't claimed neighbor yet. But I hadn't really thought of how that would make half of the players neighbors, which doesn't seem likely, so I probably was just reading too much into it.

[armlx]

Vote oEJo

I'm ready to move along.

[Empking]

Why are six people not voting?

[armlx]

5 now.

[ZazieR]

And it's L-1

[Santos]

Unvote: Gun

oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?

[CarnCarn]

oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?

Yes.
Yeah, I don't know, I just don't see anything conclusive that says oEJo is likely to be scum, with the exception of his slip-up about not being sure if Santos I was town.
Like I said, I have some doubts about the original neighbor symmetry argument and it shouldn't be used as a reason to lynch (unless we are OK with possibly losing a townie at the cost of gaining that information about the neighbor setup).

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Also, if there is indeed a fourth neighbor pair, I would assume this is as good a time as any for them to step forward.

[CarnCarn]

Also, if there is indeed a fourth neighbor pair, I would assume this is as good a time as any for them to step forward.

That is, if they don't step forward today, I don't think any new Neighbor claims should be taken seriously.

[armlx]

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Looks better on paper when making a set up.

[Battle Mage]

why is Santos not on the lynch method count?

BM

[CarnCarn]

Sineish was voting gun in the VC before Santos II unvoted above.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Looks better on paper when making a set up.

I guess. But in terms of breakability, I would assume the mod would prefer the alternate symmetry. Anyway, I'm moving back towards hammering oEJo, even if it only means gathering info about the neighbor groupings.
Any final thoughts oEJo?

[armlx]

I guess. But in terms of breakability, I would assume the mod would prefer the alternate symmetry.

Why? Its pretty safe as is.

[oEJo]

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Looks better on paper when making a set up.

I guess. But in terms of breakability, I would assume the mod would prefer the alternate symmetry. Anyway, I'm moving back towards hammering oEJo, even if it only means gathering info about the neighbor groupings.
Any final thoughts oEJo?

No, but I'd like Battle Mage to hammer me.