Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[neko2086]

/confirm

[neko2086]

vote: gorckat

for being the first to vote, and for doing so with no random reason

[neko2086]

Aren't we waiting on vellon as well? Why just vote for Jester and not even mention vellon?

[neko2086]

Yes, I see your explanation for your vote and I understand it. I'm just wondering why you're not addressing vellon. Like, I would have said, I'm going to vote for Jester because abc, but this doesn't apply to vellon because this and that, etc. But, that's just me, maybe.

Does that make sense at all? Is it wrong to ask questions for clarification? I was just hoping that you'd explain why your reasoning for your vote doesn't apply to vellon, but gorckat has addressed that (vellon hasn't been online for awhile). All makes sense now.

[neko2086]

What the hell, we may as well get something going here.

Gorckat, what's with your OMGUS vote against me?

McStab, what's with your OMGUS vote against Selande?

[neko2086]

OK, we seriously need to get something moving here...

Well, I've been waiting for everyone to confirm. I don't think we should really start with 2 people missing.

Anybody else see this as lurky? Of course scum wouldn't want discussion to start yet, the chances of suspicion falling on them would be much higher. Same is true for town, yes, but isn't the town more concerned with having discussion to get reads on people? If suspicion falls on you, all the better, since that might give you a clue about people suspecting you. Not so much for scum.

Thoughts?

FOS: Archaist

[neko2086]

In the meantime, this game is dying, so I would think it's much better to at least get something going rather than let

everyone

have the excuse to lurk.

Besides, do we really know who is "present" at the moment if there's nothing to discuss on? Starting discussion is the only way to find out who is being active and who needs to be replaced.

[neko2086]

then in that case,

unvote, vote: archaist

[neko2086]

Welcome, and thanks for replacing.

Wow soupfly, just gunna go with the flow huh?

FOS: Soupfly

[neko2086]

You might not like my style, Sammich, but at least I got some discussion going.

FOS: Gorckat

for the same reason as soupfly

Opportunistic scum, anyone?

[neko2086]

I second that. Nobody's votes seem thought out very well (including mine, which were more or less to get discussion going, so is that what everyone else is doing, or what?).

Meme, why do you like your vote. Is it because of ridethebomb's omgus vote on you?

And RTB, why exactly are you voting meme?

Gorckat, I don't see what led you to vote meme, either.

[neko2086]

Would you care to share your thoughts with us?

[neko2086]

A shameless omgus at that.

Gorckat, to answer your question, I suppose I'm beginning to be more suspicious of you since you are apparently hiding something.

I don't know what to think of Soupfly, really, and my vote on archaist was more or less just a catalyst. Now you are deliberately avoiding answering questions, so in that case...

unvote; FOS:gorckat

[neko2086]

Sorry gorckat, I guess I could elaborate.

His comments strike me as rather odd. I can't say he's said anything very helpful so far (maybe nobody has, really), but he doesn't quite seem scummy either. It's hard to make real serious judgments when not much has been said. I'm sure I'll have a much more detailed opinion of him later, but for now I just don't know what to make of him.

You seem fascinated by him. Would you like to share your thoughts on him, or will you be keeping those to yourself as well. I don't know what you're hiding, and I think it's very possible you've got nothing to hide, which is why I was curious to know why you're not giving us more of your thoughts. If you're withholding them for strategic purposes, just say so, but it would be nice if you could contribute something...

[neko2086]

Happy Bday, gorckat. And to answer your question, my voting style is typically sporadic at first during the random stage and at times when nobody is talking and something needs to get rolling. Afterwards, I like to much more cautious with voting, because I believe one has to have a damn good reason to place a serious vote. Then again, I seem to take votes and FOSs more seriously than others, but I think there's loads of information in them. So for either you or soupfly to jump onto a wagon (if 3 votes in a 12-player game counts as a wagon), I think that's a bit fishy, but not nearly worrisome enough for me to place a vote. I will keep it in mind, though.

That said, soupfly's vote on me is a bit bizarre. Sorry, soupfly, but it's not that obvious to me, and people voting without explanation is getting annoying. It's excusable during random voting, but pretty damn unhelpful later on. So, maybe I'm dense, but would you care to point out the obvious for me, soupfly, and give your reasoning?

[neko2086]

I'm a bit surprised that sikario didn't get any more than sarcastic comments for his "first insightful point." As long as we're talking about who's lurking and who's actually trying to contribute, I'd actually make the argument that sikario is doing more lurking than anyone else. He has posted more than some of the others, but nothing of any real content.

I think there's a huge difference between ignoring the game and actively lurking. In other words, we don't really know if some of the people who haven't been present are making the decision to lurk, or maybe they're just busy/lazy/whatever and aren't posting yet. Sikario, on the other hand, is present, but making contentless posts to skate by. A well-deserved

FOS

for him.

Actually, I have a question for you now, Sikario. You admitted that your reasoning is crap, but that it has to do for now. May I ask why that's all you have? Do you have more coming up? (In other words, what the hell?)

[neko2086]

Hm, well, the best way to be organized, I would think, is to have discussion long enough until someone does something really scummy, then discussion can be focused on that. With that in mind, unless I'm an idiot and cannot understand your reasoning, I'd say you've pretty much confirmed my argument that you're posting for the sake of posting. Not only are you posting nothing but filler, but you're also basing votes off of it now.

And uh, if using a vote as a catalyst shouldn't "be exercised so freely," then I would try assume you're voting sammich for a good reason, but apparently, you are not.

I'd be hesitant about voting for you, but nobody is, currently, so there's no danger yet. I think you've deserved a

vote:sikario

until you can convince me otherwise

[neko2086]

gorckat, I really really wish you would start explaining your votes.

sikario--I don't see what sirwario would be hiding from... could you elaborate?

[neko2086]

Maybe someday I'll know why people vote for me. Hey, if you want me to address something, just let me know, ok?

And I still like my vote where it is. Sikario's post in 163 makes no sense at all, and the omgusy vote here doesn't help anything.

[neko2086]

I'm sorry to see RTB go. He and meme had a pretty interesting exchange and I was hoping to see where that went... Honestly, I thought Meme had a reasonable vote on him, but I can't really see it as a concrete argument the way it stands. It seems that he may not have been lurking as much as he was just busy. On the other hand, he could be asking to replace out as a convenient excuse to avoid this sort of pressure, but, that seems unlikely.


By the way,

mod

, have prods been sent? sirwario asked for prods about a week ago and we never heard if they went out or not.

[neko2086]

Quick notes to Soupfly:
1. Are you saying that it's scummy to be willing to change one's vote? Last time I checked, tunnel-vision was a no-no

2. If we're going to talk about a lack of pressure with voting, would you care to explain how voting without giving reason is applying pressure? Were you expecting me to flip out when I have 2 baseless votes on me? Sorry for being nice.
I appreciate your finally giving an explanation, though. I'm hoping to hear something from Gorckat, because he has yet to give one, but rather piggybacks off of one of your explanations.

That actually leads me to a concern I've had lately. While Gorckat had some substantial posts early on, he's been very quiet recently. He's been posting without actually contributing anything.

FOS

for him. Lurking is bad, and there are several players in this game that should probably be replaced by now (any news,

mod?

). Actively lurking, however, is worse.

That's all for now. We really need all players participating. It was nice to get some discussion going even though not everyone was here, but now that some serious discussion is starting to happen (however slowly), it's somewhat dangerous to continue this way much longer. We could very well all be townies building arguments against each other just because we're the only ones talking.

[neko2086]

What would I suggest? I would suggest that everyone start participating so that we don't end up in the situation I just described. Right now, you're the best case I've got, but that's only because not everyone is speaking up. If somebody turns out to be more scummy-looking than you (Gorckat, perhaps), then maybe I'll be convinced that you're ok for now. But, unfortunately, we're missing quite a few people and it's difficult to know for sure if any of the people talking are scum. They're very likely one of the lurkers.

[neko2086]

I have to agree there. Jenter should at least be given the chance to either get us replacements or let us know if he's just too busy to run a game. I think if he could get us mass replacements and dedicate some attention to it, we might still be able to keep it going.

Easy for me to say though. I didn't decide to limit myself to one game like Meme, so I can see why she's kinda pissed right now. I'll probably join you two, but I'll also be keeping tabs on this one in case it does bounce back.

[neko2086]

Questions for sikario:

how do you calculate your townie points? Seriously, though, I don't know how you see that as a townie post on behalf of Gorckat. To me, that post says, "yeah, what he said." I don't know about you, but I'm a bit unnerved by people who vote for the sake of voting without actually contributing anything.

I'm anxious for mass replacement day. Luckily, we haven't gotten so far where replacements mess up discussion. Most of the probable replacees haven't really contributed much, so their loss won't be very devastating. Meme, are you willing to give Jenter another chance?

[neko2086]

2 replacements so far. Woot!

To Gor I believe that the answer to your question would be, "uh... yeah" Why on earth should we trust you if you're going to play the 'yes man' all day? To me, this is lurking in plain sight. Posting for the sake of posting, and voting for the sake of voting. Feigning participation to get by, without having to say anything very incriminating. The town is way more likely to risk putting their foot in their mouth to make a good strong point. Scum is more likely to sit back and let townies put feet in their mouths.

Now, you did mention inconsistencies, good, but honestly, a good mafia can be just as consistent as a good townie, so that seems like a weak argument to me, and so far, that seems to be all you have. Is that all you have? I wouldn't know, because you haven't really elaborated anything. That's unfortunate for you.

That said, I hope to see more views and opinions coming from you as replacements filter in.

Speaking of replacements, welcome! I hope you will all be active so that this game doesn't have to die. Though there isn't much to analyze, I'd appreciate your thoughts on recent events. Guardian has already done so to some extent, which is great.

On we go!

[neko2086]

Archaist/Gorckat: Fair enough. Though I will say that if you're going to agree with somebody, it helps to have something new to add if you're going to post about it. Otherwise, you're not really contributing anything, and that's not particularily helpful. I agree with many things that people say, but I generally won't post about it unless I feel I've got something to build off of it. Is that unreasonable?

As far as consistency goes, I'm not talking about amount of posting or length of posting, though if you wanted to go there, I would ask what that really has to do with consistency... I mean, there have been people who have been consistently lurking or not present at all, but that has nothing to do with what I'm talking about. I'm simply saying that if the mafia are playing wisely, they can make just as consistent arguments as a good townie. So if I'm being inconsistent, that's an oversight on my part, but I'm wondering how that justifies my being scum. Not a convincing argument to me, but maybe that's just me.

[neko2086]

Wow, am I the only one that doesn't like it when people don't explain their votes? Seriously people. Sik, if anyone was going to explain their vote on me, it should be you, otherwise, this just looks omgusy. But, welcome to the bandwagon. This should prove useful on Day 2.

That said, I'm not giving up yet. I'm just surprised there's this many people going against me with so little argument. To answer your question, Sik, I think the lurkers should be pressured yes, but lynched? wow that's a bit extreme.

And Pra, nice to meet another Minnesotan. I'm down in Mankato. Looking forward to hearing your input on this game. Good luck.

[neko2086]

Hm, looking back Sik, you were already voting for me, just so you know. Jenter had his post count on pg 9 wrong.

Last time you voted for me was right after I voted for you, but you almost had a good reason, so it didn't look too omgusy. This time...

[neko2086]

Arakorn, if you weren't new, I would be very displeased by your entrance. Townies generally like to have as much information as possible. Only the scum can afford to be making decisions without carefully considering everything. You'll want to take the time to read over everything and start coming up with your own arguments rather than pick up on others' as Gorckat said.

I love how people think I'm scummy because I'm being too nice. "Be careful of that one, he's trying to be rational and not emotional! What a scumtell!" My bad I guess... maybe I should be a jackass and vote recklessly. Would that be better? I'd like to see anyone make an argument for this.

[neko2086]

Sorry for not being around lately. My grandpa just passed away a few days ago. I should be back home around the 3rd of Jan. I'll try to do some catching up soon.

[neko2086]

I'll be back on my regular schedule in a few days here.

Meme, you have an interesting proposal on Pra/sammich, though I'm not sure how much weight it has at the moment. The strongest argument you have there, I would say, is the active lurking point you make, though he wouldn't be the only one guilty of this here.

I'm wondering why you bring his vote on me into it. You yourself seem inclined to start voting for me, so why is his vote for me in your commentary, especially if he used "decent reasoning?" The rest of your list seemed to have something that would try to implicate him as scum, but that point is empty and seems more pro-town than anything. Did I miss something?

[neko2086]

Meme, I see where you're coming from, but I'm still not sure it carries much weight. It's noteworthy, but not voteworthy, imo.

Top three for me at the moment will go something like this

1-Dead/Sikario- Sikario for already-stated reasons, DR for suggesting that everyone post their top 3 without being willing to post his own. It makes sense to me that the scum would like to get others discussing and making implications without sharing their own. Less to worry about that way. I'm not impressed.

2- Gorckat- maybe your voting habits really are just strange, but I think nobody in this game has voted with less discretion than you.

3- Arakorn?- This guy is new, so I don't know what to make of him, but he hasn't done much to be helpful. My best guess is that this is a newbie thrown into a scum position and doesn't know what to do. This is just a guess. If I'm wrong, Arakorn, you may want to start participating to prove it to me and the others.

[neko2086]

Gorckat, seriously, what the hell? Soupfly isn't even among your top suspects, as you laid them out last page. Are you just joining a wagon for the hell of it? Or are you just trying to make me angry?

You asked where your votes are harming the town. In my opinion, voting without reason is never helpful,

especially

when there is a deadline and every vote needs to be taken seriously. With the deadline quickly approaching, I think we need to start narrowing down the list of votees to a few possible candidates. I think you, Gorckat, would make an excellent one, but unless you fail to explain yourself, I think DR is the best choice for today. Arakorn is a poor choice as he hasn't really contributed anything, which is a great cause for suspicion, but I think he ought to be replaced, honestly. I still think it's incredibly possible that he's a newbie thrown into a scum position and doesn't know what to do with it, but I also think it's likely he's a newbie who could quickly become an easy target for the scum to pick off. Actually, if he were scum in the first scenario, I would have expected him to join a wagon somewhere, regardless of how much he's read. On the other hand, he won't be of much help to the town if he's not participating, so as far as I can tell, there's not even a remotely safe read on this guy right now. I think attention should be focused elsewhere.

In case you're not all aware, the deadline is in 4 days, so, let's get the discussion going eh?

[neko2086]

Just for the record:

Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario,
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (1) - MeMe,
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

not voting (2) - Gorgon, Rikimaru

I'm wondering if SirWario will be replaced in time. If not, does his vote still stand? Is Pra's issue being resolved? I'm just concerned that there will be stale votes at deadline.

[neko2086]

The problem with the deadline where it is is that we have people missing and I'm afraid we won't get all the replacements here in time. I want this game to move forward just as much as you do, but I want everybody here, too. If we get everybody here in time so that they can discuss and make a decision, great, but time is short.

On to more important things, though, are you voting Arakorn simply because you find him useless? I mean, do you really think he's mafia? Do you not care whether or not he's mafia?

Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario,
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (1) - MeMe,
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

not voting (2) - Gorgon, Rikimaru

[neko2086]

I've already stated that I think Arakorn would be better off replaced than lynched.

I don't appreciate being mocked. I asked you those questions because too many times I've heard this argument:

"Hey, this guy's not acting pro-town at all, so if we lynch him, we either get rid of scum or an anti-town townie. Either way, we win!"

I was just wondering if that's how you felt, or if you really believe Arakorn is likely scum. You do, and that's all I wanted to know. I personally don't think there's a clear read either way, and going back to my original though on him, I would put my best guess on him being scum, but it's only a guess. His vote is troublesome, but not sure it's enough to convince me. He could very well not have had time to read through everything and make a great decision, in which case he ought to be replaced.

[neko2086]

Your motives were questionable, that's all. At the moment, it didn't seem like you actually believed arakorn was scum, so I thought I'd apply some pressure.

I'm starting to wonder about Arakorn, though. He seems to be going out of his way to go with the flow, which would fit in with the idea that he could be newbie thrown into scum position. A newbie in a town position might do the same, but maybe with less likelihood? I dunno, any thoughts on this? It's starting to be fairly clear that Arakorn has little interest in reading through the game, maybe even regardless of time constraints. I'm considering changing my vote. Depends on what you do, Arakorn.

[neko2086]

So you've been mafia before... I see... there goes that theory...
That would mean that you're going with the flow not because you don't know what to do, but rather, just to try to appease everyone. I might have to find this game you were in.
How convenient that you'll be available after deadline.

DR, you had better have something profound to say tonight. Not moving my vote.

[neko2086]

Just so everyone knows...

Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario,
Arakorn (2) - MeMe, Gorgon
Gorckat (1) – Tarhalindur
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

not voting (1) - Rikimaru

I'm wondering if Tar and soupfly will be keeping their votes where they're at (same for Pra, but apparently he still hasn't gotten logged in.

I believe we have less than 6 hours before deadline is up. Did we ever find out what happens if there's a tie? If there's a tie, would that be a no-lynch? This would be important to know, considering DR still needs to place a vote, and it will likely not be on himself.

[neko2086]

Whoa whoa whoa. Let's not get too jumpy, eh? Arakorn could very well have been a scumwagon, and I have issues for Meme to address as well, but that's a tad bit brash. Besides, what about Gorgon? Not even an FOS?

So Tar, I was going to ask you why you weren't fond of the Arakorn wagon, just before deadline, but that explains it. I would like to know, however, what you didn't like about the DR wagon. I would also like to know what made you vote guardian.

Meme, I've notice that throughout D1, you had absolutely nothing to say about Sikario/DR. Any particular reason?

Thank you for fixing the vote counts, Gorckat. Somehow I'd missed Arakorn's unvote in the last one I did. I expect much more participation from Arakorn today, and perhaps an explanation why he did not place a vote before deadline.

I'm assuming that mikeburnfire is replacing SirWario... so...
What's up with Pra and Archaist? I believe Archaist was the only one who did not have some sort of excuse for not being here.

That's a pretty good start for D2, I think.

[neko2086]

Ah, it was a bit buried. Well I stand corrected.

And Arakorn, that's exactly why I'm surprised Tar didn't even mention Gorgon. I'm still wondering why you didn't vote before deadline.

[neko2086]

And

Arakorn

, that's exactly why I'm surprised Tar didn't even mention Gorgon. I'm still wondering why you didn't vote before deadline.

I was talking to Arakorn, who was not voting before deadline

[neko2086]

Tar isn't making me very happy either, especially since he isn't addressing my questions, which are:
1) Why vote Meme but not at least FOS or even so much as

mention

Gorgon, who was also voting Arakorn.

2) Before deadline, you said you weren't fond of the DR and Arakorn wagons. You've explained that you thought the Arakorn wagon was a scumwagon, but is that also why you didn't like the DR wagon?

3) Why did you vote Guardian before deadline?



To Arakorn: Generally, it's a good idea to have a vote at deadline. Not placing a vote before a deadline merits even more suspicion than placing a vote on the wrong person. The mafia's goal is to look as innocent as possible, and not placing a vote is an easy way to stay off bad bandwagons or to not have to bus a partner. A townie's goal is to worry less about looking suspicious and more about finding the most scummy players. Actually, it's OK for a townie to look suspicious early on, and even get lynched (as long as we're not in lylo), because scum also look for easy targets, and a townie lynch can provide quite a bit of information.

BTW, the more experienced players can elaborate or correct me on the above if I'm missing something, but I believe this is the general belief. Also, I don't normally discuss game theory in games, as I think it's a distraction and is usually scummy, but Arakorn is fairly new to this site.


To mike: I look forward to hearing your evidence.

To soupfly: I see you're following someone else's lead with little explanation as usual. Is this going to be a pattern for the rest of the game?

I need to do more rereading. Now would be a good time to start looking at possible scumbuddies. Unfortunately, the extensive lurking on D1 will make this difficult.

[neko2086]

I agree that Meme needs a chance to say something. I do think though, that we can pretty safely lynch Meme and have a confirmed cop or a confirmed scum D2. Scum would not likely fake-claim when we're not at lylo, so I think this is probably a safe move.

I still don't see why you wouldn't have voted either gorckat or myself instead of Guardian, but if you are indeed a mason-cop, I suppose it doesn't really matter anymore.

vote: Meme

soupfly, I may have exaggerated that a bit, but I can come up with at least one other instance:

vote: neko2086

Quick re-read and I think this is a good start.

after his latest post i see something.

unvote: sirwario

vote: neko2086

and don't ask for an explanation this time. that's getting old.

I originally thought that I had remembered another instance, but it was a random vote on archaist you placed right after my vote on archaist, and I was asking you if you were going with the flow as a sort of a poke and prod to get things going... the game was kinda dead then.

Still, I'm pretty concerned about you. If Meme is indeed scum, then I just have to wonder why she was so adamant that you not be lynched D1.


In the meantime, that would be something good to hear from Meme. Why didn't you like the idea of a soupfly lynch?

[neko2086]

self votes count. tAre there any rules for talking during twilight in this game? I'm not sure Jenter ever gave us clear rules.

[neko2086]

Just because you preface something with 'I know this will sound scummy, but," doesn't make that sound better. It's sorta like saying, "I'm not a racist, but..." That never ends well.

TAr, I'd be very wary of revealing any information unless you think it is absolutely necessary.

[neko2086]

Soupfly, I would agree with you except that he did explain himself eventually, whereas mike was voting on "bad vibes" and you were voting on "gut" that happened to agree with Mike. In my eyes, you're now trying to deflect suspicion from your own play.

I will agree, however, that it would have been nice to have gotten more discussion before the claim, but I do feel that yours and Mike's reactions are rather suspect. It's not so much the fact that you voted for him, since I would have voted him too if he hadn't addressed my concerns, but rather it's

how

you voted for him. Neither of you gave him a chance to explain himself, and neither of you provided any reasoning.

And Mike, it is, actually. Prefacing something with "I know this will sound scummy, but," sounds like a major cop-out to me.

I'm reserving judgment on you two, though, until we get everyone in on discussion here. Night should be coming soon anyway.

[neko2086]

Jenter says

But will they manage to kill the last scum today..?

But apparently soupfly has something he ought to reveal. When people were bandwagonning him earlier, he threatened to claim, though I wasn't sure if he really had anything to claim.

[neko2086]

Actually, I did receive a pm from Jenter saying something like I wake up and find a counterfeit money printer outside my house and I put it in my shed. I almost said something about it, but I figured it was just a really strange way to say "it's now D2."

[neko2086]

I need to reread before I make any decisions, but I'm leaning toward mike atm.


BTW, did anyone figure this stuff out?

Hope this is clear -- don't act until you've talked it out, please!

M1: rudni
M2: rudni+
S: nk

bump merge to 3 (think).

Is it worth discussing? rudni is tarhal

indur

, and he was obviously going to be the nk target (though that's not 100% for certain I guess since nobody died).

[neko2086]

In soupfly's defense, Jenter, you never really set out any official game rules. Of course, it is generally understood that posting PMs is a no-no, but I don't think it's a hard and fast site-wide rule. Also, he didn't put it in a quote box, if that counts for anything...

[neko2086]

You can modkill... or... you can post rules saying that anyone else posting pms in the future will be modkilled

Also, what's up with Pra?

And soupfly, I think you ought to share your thoughts as long as your still alive.

I need to do more rereading, then I'll be able to contribute something relevant.

[neko2086]

After rereading, it's still pretty unclear to me who the most likely 3rd scum is. For the time being, I would still go with MBF, but I'm a bit uneasy about both Gorgon and Javert. Soupfly suggested the possibility of a Pra lynch, but I am highly opposed to such an idea. Meme's encounters with Pra don't quite fit a scum-pair relationship unless she was seriously trying to distance herself from him. It does not appear, however, that she made any attempt to do the same for sikario (hardly ever mentioned him, actually), and her aggressive behavior against RTB/Guardian, suggests that she was not interested in attacking her partners for distancing, but rather town for easy lynches. She didn't even jump on the sikario bus, which would have been a great way to distance herself if she chose to do so. She probably wanted to leave as little connection as possible between herself and the other mafiates. Unfortunately, she didn't target many people, so it's difficult to narrow the possible scum down from that theory, but I do think Pra can pretty safely be called town (for now, anyway). We should not waste our lynch on someone who is somewhat likely to be scum anyway. The most likelies should be first, as to avoid problems later in the game.

[neko2086]

I think we should kill Javert. If he is scum, then he will never forget the town that destroyed him and his scumbuddies in a perfect volley of lynches. If he is town, then he will never forget the first game in which he got lynched as town. Either way this will be an epic game for him.

Javert wrote:
Reading back on MeMe's posts, it is fairly clear that when MeMe voted for Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien in Post 384, her vote was made at a time where it was very likely that Pra was not going to be lynched due to a lack of votes near deadline. If there was distancing going on, that is precisely when scum will distance because the risk is minimal.

When she voted Arakorn in Post 331, however, it was at a time where lynching Arakorn was possibility, and that was in fact the purpose of her vote. The context of the votes sometimes matter more than the presence of the votes themselves.


Good posting.

Is MBF even trying anymore? I think he's a good pick for today, but it's up to you, tar. Javert would be my second choice. I'm never impressed by people who tell you repeatedly that they're town.

[neko2086]

EBWOP:

Both of those quotes are from MBF. The second quote is a quote of Javert that MBF quoted and said as a comment: "good posting." I should stop trying to copy and paste everything

[neko2086]

If the first post was humorous and the second was pointless, what are you contributing, exactly?

[neko2086]

Well, I'm not happy with this development, but I am a vanilla townie, so I'm expendable. Good luck.

Appeal to emotion?

vote: Gorgon

[neko2086]

Even though you didn't directly ask for people to reconsider this vote, the appeal to emotion is still there. If you can make people believe that you're townie by saying that you are, perhaps they'll change their mind. Scum can offer up their "last piece of advice" in a last ditch effort to appear helpful.

I really would have preferred to lynch MBF or Javert, but your latest posts are somewhat troubling.

[neko2086]

Javert, stating that you're town does not help your case. I thought I'd mentioned this before.

I will agree that we should have taken more time for discussion yesterday. I, myself, was convinced that either MBF or Gorgon was scum, so I didn't give it much more thought. We do need today to last as long as possible.

Now, I have thoughts on javert, gorckat, and arakorn that could point to them being scum. For the moment, Javert is at the top of the list, simply because he insists on calling himself a townie. Telling us he's town over and over again doesn't make it true, and his story about not wanting to be lynched as a townie is an emotional appeal that makes me very uneasy.

Arakorn made a less-than-impressive entrance into the game, and has contributed very little. In his last post, he got defensive and also decided to share with us that he's a townie, neither of which is helpful.

I had suspicions of Gorckat at the very beginning of the game, and I'll have to review them now to see if they have any merit or not in light of recent events. It's mostly his voting style, but I have to look him over very critically now.

More later.

[neko2086]

Javert has a very good point here. That was pretty much the problem I had with gorckat D1.

Also, looking at gorckat's last post, he didn't even mention anything about Javert. His arguments were mostly about Arakorn, so why the sudden change?

The Arakorn concerns are valid, though. This is going to be a difficult call. I'm still not sold on Javert, though. An appeal to emotion is not helpful, whether done constently or not. That just makes it a convenient excuse. I will agree, though, that that won't be enough to make a case. We need to look at every angle here.

[neko2086]

o0

So, Arakorn is the more logical lynch, but you'd rather lynch Javert just because you don't want him there in the endgame?

Your reasoning almost sounds OK, except it relies on the fact that Javert and Arakorn are the only two possibilities for scum. For you, sure, this is true. But if you want to convince the rest of us, you have to keep in mind that there are three or four possibilites, you and I aren't necessarily cleared in everyone's eyes. I for one, think you are a definite possibility, thus your plan looks like an attempt to set up a seemingly fool-proof way for town to win, when in reality it could be the exact ticket for a town loss. In fact, if you're scum, it's the only ticket for a town loss unless you can convince everyone that I'm scum, which will obviously be more difficult. Essentially, you've outlined exactly what gorckat-scum needs to do if gorckat is indeed scum (yes, I'm addressing you in 3rd person). Calling it pro-town doesn't necessarily make it so.

[neko2086]

Would MeMe have voted for me, along with another scum (can't remember the name) if I was also scum?

Possibly. It's called distancing.

Gorckat, you're right. You would have had to do quite a bit of bussing. I need to go over D1 again, but I can say D2 would have been a very easy bus. Scum would not want to be off that bus, really, because that doesn't look good at all. Actually, you weren't on that bus. You spoke against her, sure, and she voted herself before you'd have had the chance to vote for her. There's really nothing pointing to you being either on or off that bus due to timing issues. Everything is speculation at that point.

So anyway, we now have two people going off of gut and not evidence. This is fantastic. Voting off of gut this late in the game is

not

helpful. Despite being uneasy about Javert, he's currently the most pro-town acting player out of the 3 I see as possible scum.

[neko2086]

Of those two, I'd rather lynch Gorkcat, but I have no particulare evidence against him, just felt that he was a bit suspicious the previous day.

I know I made solid points re: Arakorn, but I think a scum Javert is more likely to get off in endgame than a scum Arakorn, thus I'm going that way. I know its intangible, but its my gut.

[neko2086]

Looking over D1 again, I'm not sure I'd believe that if Gorckat was scum, he'd bus his partner so soon. I was the only person voting DR at the time, gorckat was the 2nd. He could very easily have joined a completely different wagon. Now, I don't like the fact that sikario kept giving him "townie points," but I suppose it could just be to gain favor with him. I think he may have been hoping to get me lynched, and at the time, gorckat was voting me. I'm also not a big fan of gorckat's voting style, but I think that's already been addressed. Anyway, those last two concerns are fairly minor when one considers the timing of his vote. Also, Gorckat went pretty far out of his way to try to get some info from Arakorn and help him along when Arakorn was just replacing in. He could have easily pushed for an Arakorn lynch. For now, I'm willing to assume that he's town

So, between Javert and Arakorn, I have to look back again and see what would make most sense. It doesn't help any that Arakorn replaced someone who was absent for 11 pages. It also doesn't help, however, that Arakorn resisted reading those 11 pages, that he jumped onto the Meme and Gorgon wagons with no reasoning (most everyone else at least had reasons to suspect them, regardless of who was pushing the lynch and why), and that he's made no real commitment all game.

vote:

Arakorn

I'm not sold on Javert yet, though. I believe he would be the second lynch.

Soupfly, we need to hear from you.

[neko2086]

ebwop:

vote: Arakorn

in case that didn't count

[neko2086]

Gorckat, what exactly about Javert's post makes it crap logic? Is it crap logic just because you say so?

It looks like you want to swamp the others with 'evidence' in hopes I lynch easily.

It looks like you're trying to deflect suspicion from yourself. Seriously, if we're not supposed to provide evidence, what are we doing here?

[neko2086]

I have read it, and I think he's got some valid points. I also noticed that Meme distanced herself from Sikario. The first part of D2 before Tar claimed I asked her why she didn't mention Sikario at all D1. She claimed she did, but only once and it was a very minor point.

Is there a connection between you and MeMe? I have to go back and reread under that assumption to see if it makes sense.

He also mentions your voting habits, which I haven't liked since D1.

Actually, I find little fault with the majority of his post. Whether it points to you as scum or not, I'm not sure yet. I've only taken them as his observations so he certainly hasn't convinced me of anything on his own.

That said, your reaction is what I find most interesting. You immediately became defensive. It was pretty clear to me that he was going to do the same thing for both Arakorn and I. You've also avoided a couple of his questions, which were bolded, which I assume means that he would like them answered.

Some people say WOWs are a scumtell. I don't know about this. It seems like the town usually invests most energy into a game, while the scum like to blend into the scenery, or lurk without appearing to be lurking. WOWs are much the opposite, and in my opinion, they point to townieness. If you disagree, and have some sort of reasoning that you'd like to use, I'll be glad to listen.

[neko2086]

WOW=Wall of Words (big long post)

Arakorn, soupfly, are you 2 still here?

[neko2086]

OK, but Sunday is like, five days away, so, would you like to participate until then? The town should not be willing to stand on the side and let the others hash things out. That's called lurking, actually, and we should know by now that neko doesn't like lurkers, especially active lurkers.

The last time you posted, you said you were most suspicious of Gorckat, but that you didn't have any evidence. Has that changed, and would you like to update us?

[neko2086]

Dude, seriously, if you're town, you ought to ask to be replaced. You're not being helpful, and yet you seem to be aware of this. If you don't replace out, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch you.

[neko2086]

Well, yeah, that's a great question, but DR missed the deadline altogether, and arakorn doesn't seem interested in vesting any effort into the game, so I'm not sure that points either way, really.

Mod

: I think it's been a week, can soupfly be prodded?

[neko2086]

Who said we were both scum? I believe there is only one scum left, as the beginning of D3 post asked if town would be able to get the last scum today. Are you confusing me with someone else? If you're talking about Meme, she may have just wanted to create distance between the two of you. It's a very common scum tactic.

[neko2086]

unvote

, but not because I've changed my mind, I only want more time. Explaining in another post.

[neko2086]

Ok, it just occurred to me that if we were wrong, we could have ended up with a quicklynch and little info. Soupfly, I want to know who your second choice would be and why. You may as well give us everything you've got now, since you will not likely be here tomorrow. If we're wrong, we'll likely have gorckat and javert voting each other, leaving me with the decision, so I might as well ask for your opinion now.

I do not plan to move my vote elsewhere (unless anyone has an incredibly good reason not to vote arakorn), but it is not going back up until I feel we've had ample discussion for today.

[neko2086]

I wasn't trying to suggest that you would try to quicklynch, I was just saying that if I am indeed wrong and if either you or javert were scum, then the scum would have the opportunity to hammer.

At the moment, I'm really torn between you and javert. Your voting style is what worries me the most. You've voted many times without providing much, if any, explanation. Your voting pattern, on the other hand, meaning whom you've voted for and the timing of your votes, seems more townie at the moment, though i'll have to look at it more carefully I think.

Javert has been very pro-active since he first arrived. He's contributed quite a bit to discussion already--probably more than you and arakorn combined. On the other hand, I think he's trying to appeal to our emotions, using the "I've never been lynched as a townie" excuse. Whether or not he's said that in every game is irrelevant. It is an appeal to emotion nonetheless, and I do not like being sold to in such a manner.

I feel arakorn is more likely scum than either of you, so I will likely be voting for him when I feel today has gone long enough. Javert still has two analyses to post, and yours to finish, and since he's promised them, I want to see all of them before today is over.

If I'm wrong, and I had to make my second decision now, it would probably be you, but luckily I don't have to make that decision now, so we'll see.

[neko2086]

Arakorn, do you mean that you've always suspected me and not Javert? Maybe to alleviate confusion, could you point out which posts you mistook me for Javert or vice versa?

I'm wondering why you don't suspect Javert as much, then.

[neko2086]

I have nothing to say until Javert posts. Arakorn does not appear to want to help us in any way, and unless I can feel otherwise, I do not think he is likely to be town.

Do you have something that you'd like to say, since you seem to want to get discussion going?

[neko2086]

Speeding things along doesn't really help us in any way, I'd like to point out

[neko2086]

finished reading Javert's post

...after neko2086 votes for Arakorn, gorckat drops the hammer.

Just for clarification, I voted for Gorgon (who was being lynched), not Arakorn.

I'm not sure that his hammering here really means anything. It was going to be a Gorgon lynch one way or the other. Obviously, it would be beneficial for the scum to join the wagon, but I'm not sure their placement on that wagon is extremely telling, unless you're seeing something I'm not.

[neko2086]

Javert, you are working on your other two summaries, yes? I think we're kind of at a standstill here until you do.

[neko2086]

Much of what I have to say highly depends on what you and gorckat have to say. I agree that gorckat should respond, and had you had any specific questions for him, I would have pressured him to do so. I'd think that he'd have something to say about your post, though.

[neko2086]

Javert, just curious, between Gorckat and Arakorn, whom do you find scummier.

For the record, I'm still in favor of lynching Arakorn today. You have some very valid concerns about Gorckat, but I find Arakorn's play overall more troublesome. After you give your analysis on me, I should be able to decide which of you two is my second choice

[neko2086]

Right, if you've got anything specific to base that on, that'd be helpful. As long as you're still here, I'd appreciate your input.

[neko2086]

soupfly, I wouldn't say it's unnecessary. I would be much more worried if he didn't do an analysis on me.

His analysis doesn't seem scummy at all, really. But, I think to be careful and responsible, I need to consider the possibility that it was done very carefully as scum. Supposing for a moment that Javert is scum, I would expect him to come to the conclusion that I am town, as it would be more difficult to get me lynched than gorckat and he would want to get on my 'good side.' At the same time, though, he'd want to make sure he appeared to come to that conclusion after a thoughtful analysis and careful deliberation.

So, I am a little bit weary, but at the same time, I understand that it is difficult to put forth all that time into something that seems pointless. I'm more inclined to believe that Javert is town, based on the comparison between his play and the plays of Arakorn and Gorckat. That makes it a little difficult for me to keep in mind the possibility that Javert is scum, and my rereads, if I'm not careful, get a bit diluted and I have to start over with fresh mind.

Still, I feel comfortable where we're at right now. Unless anyone has a good reason to lynch gorckat rather than arakorn, I'm about ready to put my vote back down on Arakorn

[neko2086]

I'm still waiting for him to answer my question, and he wasn't going to until Arakorn answered. So, I'm ready to vote for him, but of course I'm not going to hammer him prematurely.

gorckat, you say you're torn, but you're still voting Arakorn when he's at L-1. How torn are you, exactly? Based on your two assessments in your last post, is it a close call, or are you leaning pretty heavily toward Arakorn?

[neko2086]

no-lynching would be an awful idea. We have two chances at a correct lynch, and to waste them would be awful. Plus, we'd end up with an endgame of Javert-Arakorn-Gorckat. If I end up in the endgame, it's at least a 50-50 chance. Or, if the scum would like to nk me tonight, soupfly would get another night action, and it'd still be a 50-50 chance.

[neko2086]

Arakorn, are you still around? Javert had more questions for you, and your answers to them may affect what happens today.

[neko2086]

without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat

Has anything changed?

[neko2086]

This has been tormenting me all weekend.

Originally, I had imagined that gorckat was probably the most likely to be town. This largely hinged on his early involvement in the DR/Sikario lynch. In my post 542, I said gorckat was second on the wagon. Looking back, I see that he was actually third. That in itself doesn't change a whole lot, but looking at the numbers of votes, there's a critical shift.

soupfly (3) - Archaist, SirWario, gorckat

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian

Arakorn (1) - MeMe

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Sikario8 (2) - neko2086, Guardian

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

This is a critical moment. Gorckat has asked why he wouldn't have just stayed on soupfly if he were scum and get him lynched. Well, he had already switched to Arakorn, possibly in hopes that a bandwagon would start there.

Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (1) - MeMe

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

So why switch to DR instead of staying at Arakorn? Originally, when I thought gorckat was the second to join, this made even less sense. Why would he even try to make DR a possible lynch candidate if he was only at 1 vote? Well, he was actually already a lynch candidate. Would the scum bus their godfather so early on, when it maybe wasn't even necessary? I think it so. Nevermind that he was the godfather, was he really that valuable? Sikario made some very strange gameplay, and out of the three would easily have been the weakest on the scumteam. DR replaced, and might have been able to save the role, except he suggested that everyone play the "list game" without offering one of his own. The sacrifice would have been very easy to make, and would essentially allow gorckat to sail for quite awhile.


Now, with Arakorn, there have been some obvious issues, and Javert has pointed out most of them. I think, though, that they are possibly not so much indicative of scummy play, rather less-experienced play. Also, in post 641, he appears to be giving up, and asks to be "sacrificed." Now, this is interesting. We sorta can afford to sacrifice somebody, as we get one more lynch, so for the town, though they should never give up, they should also be understanding that they are dispensible so long as it is not a lylo situation. The last scum, on the other hand, doesn't have this luxury. Now, it is possible that Arakorn is trying to appeal to emotion, but as Javert pointed out, he denied being a newbie player early on. He has, recently, said that he is not as "skilled" as the others, so that might be an attempt to start playing that card, but I really don't think it is.

Arakorn has been the "inevitable lynch" for some time now. His gameplay has changed, but not in the way I expected, especially if he were scum trying to save the game for his team. He started out today pretty aggressive, and mellowed out after being attacked. If he were scum, I would imagine he would be fighting tooth and nail to win.

Gorckat today has been much more aggressive toward Arakorn, but insists on voting for Javert, even though he has little evidence to back it up. He calls it gut. I think I'm convinced it's the scum's desperate attempt to win. After all, if things went the way they were going, he would likely be lynched in the endgame anyway. Keeping his vote on Arakorn would mean he'd have to defend himself against Javert, which would be difficult, so he's got to try something else. If he could possibly get Javert lynched first, it would be much easier to win in the endgame. Or, if Arakorn was lynched anyway, he at least wouldn't have been a part of the lynch anymore.

If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn. He has been voting capriciously throughout the game, indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.

vote: gorckat

[neko2086]

And if he's town and really can't decide which one is scum?

Are you talking about yourself here? I believe you said that you actually had reasons to vote for Arakorn, but wanted to vote Javert because of your "gut" and also because that would be the strategic thing to do, right? That sounds like you're saying that Arakorn is probably scum but you'd rather get Javert out of the way first because he would be dangerous to have in the endgame. If that's not what you're saying, please correct me.

Town shouldn't have a strategy?

It's fine for the town to have a strategy, but scum-hunting should be priority. The scum only have to appear to be scum-hunting, but they are playing strictly by strategy. Your voting behavior in this entire game looks nothing like scum-hunting.

Sure, that works the same if I'm scum, but I think I can prove tomorrow that I'm not.

Are you expecting there to be a tomorrow? Again, it sounds like you

expect

Javert to turn up town.

Arakorn's willingness to go down is an appeal to emotion, just like Javert's never been lynched as town.

I tried to make a distinction here, but let me try again. I don't quite think Arakorn is deliberately trying to make an appeal to emotion. I really think he is genuinely accepting the fact that he is dispensible. If I am wrong about you, then obviously this will need to be reconsidered, but I find Arakorn's reactions and play today to be less indicative of scumminess than yours.

[neko2086]

One reason Javert is so damn hard to read is he never really had to interact with DR or Meme.

True, but Archaist did. Though Javert can't answer for archaist's actions, I think if there were evidence of Archaist being scum, it ought to be brought up. I haven't found anything very indicative either way.

[neko2086]

Soupfly, are you available for comments?

[neko2086]

a) Far better players than I do the same.

Yes, but do they do it throughout the entire game? Whenever I've seen this, it's been early on to provoke discussion, or it's been done to gauge reactions. I don't see either from you, really.

b) "Third on the wagon is scum!" sorts of things?

That is a pretty flawed argument, though I'm not sure if that's what Javert was talking about. Javert, could you elaborate on that point?

c) See ABR's mini 486 where I argued the same

That seems just a little different. The motivation in that post seems to be to avoid WIFOM arguments the next day. But, I probably still wouldn't like that argument, so you may have a point here.


Javert, how do you feel about Arakorn's latest posts?

[neko2086]

First, Arakorn, I will be expecting you to address any questions/points presented by myself or Javert.

Javert, as frustrated as you might be by my reluctance to believe you, I would think that you would understand my cautiousness considering the situation I'm in. And no, I'm not going to take everything Arakorn says for truth. I felt some sincerity in what he said yesterday, but obviously I have to re-evaluate it now.

I have a burning question. Arakorn, why didn't you vote for me?
Also, why do you think I wouldn't vote Javert?

[neko2086]

^I should clarify, Javert, that I'll take the evidence and arguments you present into careful consideration. I'm going to be cautious, but I won't blow off everything you say. I think you'll understand that.

I am also in no hurry. This has been a long game, but I'm in a really tough position and I want to get it right. We went from an extremely hard-to-lose situation for town to this, and I have to admit to being partly responsible, so I'm feeling the pressure and I certainly don't intend to make a hasty decision.

[neko2086]

Yesterday (IRL) when I posted I still thought that Neko was scum, but because Javert already voted for me the only chance of survival I had was to vote Javert and hope that Neko did the same

Just to clarify, when Javert voted for you, you still thought I was scum?

[neko2086]

Hm. Well, I really don't want to draw this out any longer than I have to. I think I've got pretty much everything I'm going to get. So, here we go.

I didn't vote Arakorn yesterday because his sacrifice comment felt sincere. I have to agree with Javert, though, that his "the town is doomed now" comment from today is over the edge. The part that bothers me the most about it is that if the town actually were doomed, and he thought I was scum (which he confirmed that he did), he should have just gone ahead and voted for me. Instead, he allowed the town to be "doomed" if that were the case.

Obviously he wouldn't vote me after Javert voted Arakorn and I had the opportunity to hammer. But, Arakorn

opened

the day by saying he would go against his gut and vote Javert. If he really thinks I'm scum at that point, he's throwing away the entire game. If he thought I was scum, he obviously should have voted me, even when voted by Javert. His only chance of winning would be to get Javert to at least unvote.

I think the rest of the cases have been made, but basically, Javert has put much effort into this game, whereas Arakorn has not. Arakorn began to invest interest into this game only yesterday, really. Arakorn's arguments and behavior are incredibly inconsistent, and he hasn't adequately accounted for this.

If Javert is indeed scum, he's done a fine job. I can't say the same for Arakorn if he's town. I don't think I have a choice, really.

vote: Arakorn

[neko2086]

Damn.

Nice job, Javert.

Sorry town, I don't think I could've chosen Javert over Arakorn. I don't know if I could have chosen him over Gorckat either, but I should have kept Arakorn out of the endgame.