Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[Javert]

I stated quite a while ago that I would be doing an analysis of neko2086. I don't know what to tell you so far as it was a 'positive review'; I had no intention of giving a negative or a positive review when I first began; simply to give an analysis as objectively as possible without letting my biases affect me.

Is there something in my analysis you

disagree

with in particular? Do you think I came to my conclusion too quickly? With insubstantial evidence or reasoning? Can you find something that looks like distancing to

you

? It really took until the end of Day One for me to reaffirm my opinion that neko2086 is probably town, and not before.

Votecount;

Arakorn (2) soupfly, gorckat
gorckat (1) arakorn


Not voting; The rest of you

[Javert]

Additionally, the only reason neko2086 will likely be "deciding the game" is specifically

because

a good deal of players feel he is town (a sentiment I can now agree with after having given a tailored reread to this effect). My conclusion that I believe he is town should have no influence on his decision (should he even have to make one) unless he feels there is something wrong with my reasoning, or that I was going 'soft' on him for the purpose of buttering him up, or some such thing.

[neko2086]

soupfly, I wouldn't say it's unnecessary. I would be much more worried if he didn't do an analysis on me.

His analysis doesn't seem scummy at all, really. But, I think to be careful and responsible, I need to consider the possibility that it was done very carefully as scum. Supposing for a moment that Javert is scum, I would expect him to come to the conclusion that I am town, as it would be more difficult to get me lynched than gorckat and he would want to get on my 'good side.' At the same time, though, he'd want to make sure he appeared to come to that conclusion after a thoughtful analysis and careful deliberation.

So, I am a little bit weary, but at the same time, I understand that it is difficult to put forth all that time into something that seems pointless. I'm more inclined to believe that Javert is town, based on the comparison between his play and the plays of Arakorn and Gorckat. That makes it a little difficult for me to keep in mind the possibility that Javert is scum, and my rereads, if I'm not careful, get a bit diluted and I have to start over with fresh mind.

Still, I feel comfortable where we're at right now. Unless anyone has a good reason to lynch gorckat rather than arakorn, I'm about ready to put my vote back down on Arakorn

[gorckat]

Do not hammer yet- we're still waiting for Javert to give reads on myself and Arakorn.

I'm still torn between the two:

-Arakorn should have been more involved and has avoided answering questions. He looks like scum that gave up.
-Javert has tweaked my gut. I don't trust him and I fear because of playstyle differences, I'd get the short end of the stick if he and I are in an endgame together.

[neko2086]

I'm still waiting for him to answer my question, and he wasn't going to until Arakorn answered. So, I'm ready to vote for him, but of course I'm not going to hammer him prematurely.

gorckat, you say you're torn, but you're still voting Arakorn when he's at L-1. How torn are you, exactly? Based on your two assessments in your last post, is it a close call, or are you leaning pretty heavily toward Arakorn?

[gorckat]

Both.

Arakorn's behavior is more obviously scummy, so I'm voting him. Logically, he's the scummiest person.

Javert's behavior concerns me as well. I can understand his taking his time to review everyone. His posting the summaries, however, seems unnecessary. If his reviews are so thorough, we'd be able to see that based on his questions. It strikes me, as I said before, as an attempt to overload us with information. Plus his whole "never lynched as town" concerns rubbed me the wrong way.

iirc, Archaist before him had been suspect, but not nearly active enough to draw firm conclusions.

I'm still willing to lynch either one. Reason tells me Arakorn is scum. Gut/intution tells me its Javert.

Either way I believe the town would win tomorrow after lynching both of them.

An alternative is to no-lynch two days in a row and see who the scum wants in the endgame, but I really don't want to be playing this game come next fall.

[neko2086]

no-lynching would be an awful idea. We have two chances at a correct lynch, and to waste them would be awful. Plus, we'd end up with an endgame of Javert-Arakorn-Gorckat. If I end up in the endgame, it's at least a 50-50 chance. Or, if the scum would like to nk me tonight, soupfly would get another night action, and it'd still be a 50-50 chance.

[gorckat]

endgame of

That

's why I didn't suggest it a couple weeks ago when the thought ran through my head. I'd totally forgotten my conclusions back then.

[gorckat]

Obviously it's supposed to say Javert-gorc-Arakon. I just suck at C/P, it seems.

[Javert]

I have to say I am more than a little frustrated that the more thoroughly I try to make endgame decisions (or effective equivalents), the more I am accused of trying to give towns 'information overloads' or 'drowning out the thread [with noise]'. This is a pretty established part of my gameplay: I play to win, and to make sure I win it requires that I reread the thread multiple times under different mindsets. I also believe peer-reviews are very helpful; if I take the time to post an analysis, I expect people to bounce ideas from it, respond to it, or disagree with it with reasoning.

There is a pretty simple way to determine if you believe that I am trying to fill the thread with filler or fluff or 'information overloads';

read

my posts and see if you find anything

wrong

with them. If you

do

find something wrong, you can then determine if you think I was doing that

purposefully

(which would indicate I am using whatever means necessary -- namely, bad reasoning -- to achieve a particular end) or in good faith.

[soupfly]

well javert, in a game such as this it really is tough to compete against you when you are scum. its clear that you know how to be a good townie and i assume you play the same whether you are town or scum. unfortunately i've found nothing incriminating against you so far, although i have the sense that you would be clean even if you were scum. in any case i don't believe in lynching players who are too townie, which you are. between javert and gorckat i would believe that gorckat is the scum.

but in any case arakorn is the play today.

[Javert]

I am not positive I will be able to slip in a post tomorrow, so I want to make sure I give my opinion on today (since it is possible there may be a lynch while I am away):

There are a few things which make me believe Arakorn is townier than gorckat. Many of them boil down to WIFOM, but I am not a player who dismisses things on that basis if I feel there is a kernel of truth to be had in them; I simply give them their due weight. Although I do not have my notes with me (they are at school, whereas I am at home right now) it really boils down to two things:

Sincerity and playing against his individual self-interest. The tones of many of Arakorn's posts strike me as very sincere; at the same time, many of his posts seem to be so much against his self-interest (if he were scum) that it is difficult to imagine a scum writing them in the first place.

-->

a.)

He denies being a newbie (something he may have been able to exploit had he chosen to do so)
-->

b.)

He seems to genuinely confuse naming people today; this clearly does not help him as either town or scum. I am inclined to think anybody being scum with MeMe, however, would not find it easy to accidentally mistake neko2086 with MeMe. It is certainly bad play, but it does not seem like

purposeful

bad play.
-->

c.)

He is apparently listing his scum-preference as {gorckat => neko => Javert}. This is practically shooting himself in the foot; if we were to lynch gorckat today, he would look bad switching to me; and by that same token, I do not believe I would lynch neko with him tomorrow if it comes down to us three. His list basically sets him up for being lynched tomorrow.
-->

d.)

Arakorn has had a precedent in this game of pointing out he is not a big contributor, and this helps as an explanation for his posting in this game. Although I have never played with Arakorn before to or read any of his games to verify this, I am under the impression (false? true?) that at the very least, Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien is from the same site as Arakorn, and given that Pra never once disagreed with Arakorn on this point, that it is more likely to be true than it is false. His response to 'whether he finds spam or substance easier to read' also rings fairly true (although being truthful to this question is not in itself an indicator of alignment).

~~~~~

That said, without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat (however much it would probably be in

my

best interest to lynch gorckat today).

Short summarization of reasons:

Regardless of his claimed past history of not contributing, entering a game asking for somebody to 'summarize' it for you automatically pulls a rug from your feet. All other replacements -- except Dead Rikimaru-scum -- read the game and gave their own commentary. By that same token, reentering the game under the impression there is a deadline while making no effort to find scum indicates to me a tacit consent to being okay with lynching whoever happens to be on the chopping block; soupfly appeared to be the lynch choice du jour at this point in time. His offer to 'read the game in a week' with deadline going to hit in less than a week does (contrary to the sincerity mentioned above) does not strike me as being fully sincere; he had

just

been told deadline was in a week, so this comment is flatly bad.

The inconsistency between words and actions ('don't lynch MeMe yet' while still voting for her) has always stricken me as disingenuous, both in this game and in past games.

Finally, he is largely using WIFOM as his defenses today ('would MeMe have voted for me?' and 'would a scum have lynched his scum-mate?'), which is appealing to other players' actions to try to clear himself, as opposed to using his

own

actions to clear himself.

[Javert]

That might look confusing, so I will clarify it off the bat:

There are more things Arakorn has said which seem 'townish' over gorckat; however, there are

also

more things Arakorn has

done

which make him seem more 'scummish' than gorckat. Given those two choices, I would rather lynch the player who I believe to me more scummy.

[neko2086]

Arakorn, are you still around? Javert had more questions for you, and your answers to them may affect what happens today.

[Arakorn]

Yeh I'm here, but I'm seriously beginning to lose interest. I just don't want to put as much time into these games as you guys, and I am not nearly as skilled as you.

Let me ask my same question in a different way. If you thought that day was the deadline day, why were you not spurred to read the game to

find out

who you were most suspicious of so that you could give a warranted vote?

Since it was a deadline, a player would have gotten killed with or without my vote. I'd rather trust in your votes, (the more experienced player's) than in my own "feelings".

If Tarhalindur never claimed his role at all or that he had an investigation (but instead just went after MeMe), would you have voted MeMe alongside with him? Or would have done something else?

(You mean if I wouldn't have known he had a special role?)
Probably not, as I would have had significantly less evidence against MeMe.

Response: In my experience, if a townsperson wants more discussion, they should take away the avenues for

stopping

discussion (which means they should unvote somebody, especially if they are anywhere close to being lynched).

Here is an example of what I am getting at from another game (which is pretty famous and everybody on the site should read it, in my humble opinions): Post #157 from Axelrod-scum in Worst Role Evar Mafia. He claims he does

not

want a player lynched while putting them at Lynch-1, and then that player is lynched anyways immediately afterwards (by a townsperson, no less). If Axelrod had

really

not wanted that player lynched yet, he would not have

voted

for him – as you may notice, he actually

did

want that player lynched. His actions and his words were contradicting each other.

As it is, scum had a vested interest in making Day Two in

this

game go as fast as possible; the sooner MeMe was lynched, the less information the town could actually get from the lynch; this is an excellent reason for scum to (for example) claim they do not want the day to end yet while keeping their vote on MeMe (in hopes she actually is lynched all the sooner). This is why I am poking you about this subject.

I see now. Well, I guess I did wrong then... (ehm, was there a question somewhere...?)

Please

go into detail. The

point

of me asking you questions is because

I do not know your alignment, and I am trying to figure that out

. The longer your response, the more likely I am to judge correctly. Point to posts you don't like (or do like), make a case, tell me where you get particular vibes: do whatever you need to do so that I can see you have

some

reasoning behind why you are placing players where they are on your suspicions list.

Well, I have throughout some of Gorckat's posts "sensed" some offensiveness against me, as well as something that I consider scummy. No examples currently...

My "problem" with neko is how easily he got away. (Known townies: Neko).
I later then asked why he was so certainly a townie, and Soup replied that he had investigated him. (the Forged Money-printer, which really had an unclear function).

[neko2086]

without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat

Has anything changed?

[Arakorn]

I would guess not, given I still haven't provided any valid reasons for my suspicions.
Well go ahead, sacrifice me, I aint of much use anyway. And I can get out of this troubling game...

[gorckat]

unvote
vote: Javert

At this poit, there's no way I'm lynching neo tomorrow, and I don't want to be stuck as Javert's out.

I recognize that moving my vote raises the chance I become Arakorn's out. I'm willing to gamble that.

[Arakorn]

I think this is the current tally...

Javert (1) gorckat
Arakorn (1) soupfly
gorckat (1) arakorn

[neko2086]

This has been tormenting me all weekend.

Originally, I had imagined that gorckat was probably the most likely to be town. This largely hinged on his early involvement in the DR/Sikario lynch. In my post 542, I said gorckat was second on the wagon. Looking back, I see that he was actually third. That in itself doesn't change a whole lot, but looking at the numbers of votes, there's a critical shift.

soupfly (3) - Archaist, SirWario, gorckat

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian

Arakorn (1) - MeMe

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Sikario8 (2) - neko2086, Guardian

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

This is a critical moment. Gorckat has asked why he wouldn't have just stayed on soupfly if he were scum and get him lynched. Well, he had already switched to Arakorn, possibly in hopes that a bandwagon would start there.

Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn

Arakorn (1) - MeMe

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly

So why switch to DR instead of staying at Arakorn? Originally, when I thought gorckat was the second to join, this made even less sense. Why would he even try to make DR a possible lynch candidate if he was only at 1 vote? Well, he was actually already a lynch candidate. Would the scum bus their godfather so early on, when it maybe wasn't even necessary? I think it so. Nevermind that he was the godfather, was he really that valuable? Sikario made some very strange gameplay, and out of the three would easily have been the weakest on the scumteam. DR replaced, and might have been able to save the role, except he suggested that everyone play the "list game" without offering one of his own. The sacrifice would have been very easy to make, and would essentially allow gorckat to sail for quite awhile.


Now, with Arakorn, there have been some obvious issues, and Javert has pointed out most of them. I think, though, that they are possibly not so much indicative of scummy play, rather less-experienced play. Also, in post 641, he appears to be giving up, and asks to be "sacrificed." Now, this is interesting. We sorta can afford to sacrifice somebody, as we get one more lynch, so for the town, though they should never give up, they should also be understanding that they are dispensible so long as it is not a lylo situation. The last scum, on the other hand, doesn't have this luxury. Now, it is possible that Arakorn is trying to appeal to emotion, but as Javert pointed out, he denied being a newbie player early on. He has, recently, said that he is not as "skilled" as the others, so that might be an attempt to start playing that card, but I really don't think it is.

Arakorn has been the "inevitable lynch" for some time now. His gameplay has changed, but not in the way I expected, especially if he were scum trying to save the game for his team. He started out today pretty aggressive, and mellowed out after being attacked. If he were scum, I would imagine he would be fighting tooth and nail to win.

Gorckat today has been much more aggressive toward Arakorn, but insists on voting for Javert, even though he has little evidence to back it up. He calls it gut. I think I'm convinced it's the scum's desperate attempt to win. After all, if things went the way they were going, he would likely be lynched in the endgame anyway. Keeping his vote on Arakorn would mean he'd have to defend himself against Javert, which would be difficult, so he's got to try something else. If he could possibly get Javert lynched first, it would be much easier to win in the endgame. Or, if Arakorn was lynched anyway, he at least wouldn't have been a part of the lynch anymore.

If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn. He has been voting capriciously throughout the game, indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.

vote: gorckat

[gorckat]

If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn.

And if he's town and really can't decide which one is scum?

indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.

That makes no sense. Town shouldn't have a strategy? My strategy is this: I'm town and there's no fucking way I can get past Javert in LYLO, nor would Arakorn if he's town. Sure, that works the same if I'm scum, but I think I can prove tomorrow that I'm not.

Arakorn's willingness to go down is an appeal to emotion, just like Javert's never been lynched as town.

[neko2086]

And if he's town and really can't decide which one is scum?

Are you talking about yourself here? I believe you said that you actually had reasons to vote for Arakorn, but wanted to vote Javert because of your "gut" and also because that would be the strategic thing to do, right? That sounds like you're saying that Arakorn is probably scum but you'd rather get Javert out of the way first because he would be dangerous to have in the endgame. If that's not what you're saying, please correct me.

Town shouldn't have a strategy?

It's fine for the town to have a strategy, but scum-hunting should be priority. The scum only have to appear to be scum-hunting, but they are playing strictly by strategy. Your voting behavior in this entire game looks nothing like scum-hunting.

Sure, that works the same if I'm scum, but I think I can prove tomorrow that I'm not.

Are you expecting there to be a tomorrow? Again, it sounds like you

expect

Javert to turn up town.

Arakorn's willingness to go down is an appeal to emotion, just like Javert's never been lynched as town.

I tried to make a distinction here, but let me try again. I don't quite think Arakorn is deliberately trying to make an appeal to emotion. I really think he is genuinely accepting the fact that he is dispensible. If I am wrong about you, then obviously this will need to be reconsidered, but I find Arakorn's reactions and play today to be less indicative of scumminess than yours.

[gorckat]

I

hope

there isn't a tomorrow. I accept the possibility that there will be a tomorrow.

That sounds like you're saying that Arakorn is probably scum but you'd rather get Javert out of the way first because he would be dangerous to have in the endgame.

Yup.

Again- I'm torn 50/50 between Arakorn's scummy behavior and my gut towards Javert. I really don't think I can make any better of a case (or any case, really) against Javert if it's him, me and you. Thus, for town to win, we have to eliminate him first so we can lynch Arakorn if Javert isn't scum.

One reason Javert is so damn hard to read is he never really had to interact with DR or Meme. iirc, all he got say about Meme was "let's talk this through". He's actually in the best seat possible if he's scum- nothing can tie him to any other scum and he just has to hunt phantoms and point out my flaws.

Same for Arakorn, really. He never really hooked into Meme or DR, either. I've probably got the most interactions with both (counting sikario and DR together) out of anyone left.

[gorckat]

And yes- I was speaking about myself in the third person in your first quote.

[neko2086]

One reason Javert is so damn hard to read is he never really had to interact with DR or Meme.

True, but Archaist did. Though Javert can't answer for archaist's actions, I think if there were evidence of Archaist being scum, it ought to be brought up. I haven't found anything very indicative either way.