Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[Hang 'em High]

Damn, behind the 8-ball already -- lucky scum. I'll start with a random vote:

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

[Hang 'em High]

Vote: Battle Mage

[Hang 'em High]

d3sisted was in 1 completed game with =Confused=; they were both townies and d3sisted posted some complimentary things about =Confused=, so it's fair to say he was impressed with =Confused='s game and might consider him a threat.

FOS: d3sisted

I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious.

[Hang 'em High]

=Confused= is actually a she - I checked the profile.

Oops. Sorry, =Confused=. Tough night/day for her. First she gets night killed and then I try to give her poor corpse a sex change. Ouch.

[Hang 'em High]

With reference to my vote on HeH, i meant the last paragraph of post 20. lol

For reference, here is the paragraph being refered to:

I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious.

I assume your vote on me is just OMGUS, but if you really think my post is scummy I'd love to hear why.

[Hang 'em High]

However, you are using the WIFOM argument, that i have not been NKed, as a reason to kill me, which is inherently scummy.

Wow, you've totally overstated what I said, BM. Here is my exact quote:

I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious.

A "little suspicious" is a far cry trying to kill you. I didn't vote for you -- I didn't even FoS you -- let alone call for your lynching. I just stated it was a little suspicious that you weren't NKed on N0, something you agree with.

and i agree with HeH that i was expecting me to be the target.

So, you thought you would be the target. I agreed and said that your survival was "a little suspicious". You then took "a little suspicious" and turned it into me calling for you to be lynched. Then you said that "only Mafia would take such a stance." Basically, you put words into my mouth and then used those words to accuse me of being scum. At best that seems like an OMGUSsy overreaction -- at worst it could mean you're scum trying to set me up by misrepresenting what I actually said. I don't know which it is, but IGMEOY.

[Hang 'em High]

I didn't vote for you

EBWOP: Actually I did vote for Battle Mage on page 1, but that was a random vote that had nothing to do with the current discussion. Just wanted to make that clear.

[Hang 'em High]

This whole discussion about the night kill doesn't really sit well with me. It's all very WIFOM. Reading through some of the previous posts, though, post 20, from Hang 'em High, is bothering me:

d3sisted was in 1 completed game with =Confused=; they were both townies and d3sisted posted some complimentary things about =Confused=, so it's fair to say he was impressed with =Confused='s game and might consider him a threat.

Feels like a

really

weak attempt at drawing suspicion to d3sisted. I don't think the killing of =Confused= was a matter of removing a threatening player.

Not

killing a more recognized player may have been a strategic move but that gets into the messy WIFOM territory.

I opened up this possibility in response to the following question raised by Battle Mage:

has anyone here ever played with 'Confused' before?

And his later clarification:

my reason for asking about Confused, was simply that in a game like this, he seems a peculiar N0 kill, unless there was perhaps a grudge involved, or somebody had played with him before, and knew him to be a potent player.

So, following BM's lead, I did some metagaming and discovered that d3sisted was in a previous game with =Confused= and specifically complimented her ability. Therefore, following BM's logic, it is possible that since d3sisted considered =Confused= a potent player he targeted her for a night kill. I agree that this is not very compelling evidence against d3sisted, which is why I didn't vote for him. But I do think that BM's question was worth pursuing, so I did.

I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious.

This sort of point bothers me. Maybe Battle Mage is alive because he's scum. Maybe he's alive because the scum think he's good enough at getting himself lynched, anyway. Or maybe he's alive because the scum want to be able to make this sort of argument about how he might be scum because he's still alive.

I addressed this more fully in post 43, but let me be clear -- I don't think BM's survival means he's scum, since there are many possible reasons he wasn't targeting. However, I think (and BM even agrees) that he was the most likely N0 target, so I do think it's a

little

suspicious that he wasn't targeted N0. Not worth making a big deal over yet, but something to keep in mind for later on.

[Hang 'em High]

If you could post a link to where he complimented Confused, that'd be great.

Here's the link: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=800

The post in question is #805. I don't think we should read too much into it, it's just something that might become valuable later on if other evidence comes to light.

[Hang 'em High]

Hang 'em High: Early random dice wagon vote, throwing dirt at d3sisted.

VampanezeHunter: Votes d3sisted a few post after HeH hmm,

HeH: Throwing dirt on D3sisted maybe to take some eyes off you?

For the record, I never voted for d3sisted. I did cast a FoS on him based on what I saw by metagaming, but I also said that such evidence was somewhat specious. I don't place much stock in it now, but it is worth keeping in mind depending on how the game progresses in the future.

[Hang 'em High]

But, you can't seriously think that HeH's continued discussion of a very weak topic to be clean, do you?

In my defense, I only brought up those topics (BM not being NKed and d3sisted complimenting =Confused='s play) in response to other people's questions/comments and I've acknowledged the arguments are weak. I do think they were worth a

brief

discussion because they

might

prove valuable later when more information has come out. The reason they've remained under discussion is because other people question me on them and I feel obligated to explain.

I understand why you find those arguments suspicious and I'll try to explain my thinking as best I can. Since this is such a quick turnaround, we can't afford to sit back and hope the scum out themselves. We need to actively look for any clues that might help us track them down -- that's what I was trying to do.

[Hang 'em High]

Day 1 lynches are usually difficult and I expect it to be more so in a speed game. Even so, I'm really struggling to come up with anything except the weakest of theories on which to base my vote. I think we need the extra time.

Vote: Deadline Extension

[Hang 'em High]

I'd wager that neither are scum (meta-game reasons), but their input is certainly crucial.

Could you please explain your meta-game reasons for thinking they're innocent?

[Hang 'em High]

I know I've been previously accused of meta-gaming and reading too much into the results, but here I go again. Let me say in advance that I know this is grasping at straws, but I'm going to put the findings out there since you never know what crumb of evidence might prove valuable.

Antipathy has only made two posts in the forum -- requesting to be in this game and his one post in this thread. I don't think we can read much into this since he's totally MIA -- it's not like he's given up this particular game in favor of others on the board. I wouldn't conclude that his absence makes him any more or less likely to be townie or scum.

SurveySays, on the other hand, has posted elsewhere in the forum since our game started. The night phase here started on the 22nd and SS made a number of posts on the 23rd. Our day phase started on the 24th and SS posted in another game on the 29th. In that post, however, SS made it sound like he had been away for a while and needed to catch up; he has not posted there since. Not much to conclude here, either. Perhaps his other game is more important since he checked their first, but the post there wasn't more than a quick check in. I'd say this means there is a

very

slight chance he is more likely to be a vanilla townie here, but honestly I'd really write this off entirely.

Short summary to a long post. I'd don't think we can conclude anything about Antipathy's or SurveySays' lack of activity. Oh, well -- it was worth a look.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: My last post was in response to post 92 -- the three subsequent posts were made while I was (slowly) typing.

[Hang 'em High]

I've been waiting for the replacements and I agree we should extend until 48 hours after they're in. If the deadline is going to stay at today then we need to do something. Unfortunately, other that some lame meta-game reasons, I don't feel like I have a good idea on who to lynch. Today is a holiday in the U.S., so it's going to be difficult for me to check in. I'll try to check in later, but I'm not sure I'll be able to.

[Hang 'em High]

I'm hoping the game can be salvaged. MeMe gave SPAG 72 hours to get in touch or be replaced by Theopor_COD and those 72 hours just passed. Since we haven't heard anything, I'm guessing Theo is taking over as the new mod -- thanks, Theo! He said he would look for replacements for YYCGuy, SurveySays, VampanezeHunter and Antipathy. After he gets the replacements lined up he said he would set a 1-week deadline. I'm optimistic Theo can get us started again and help keep things on track.

[Hang 'em High]

WARNING: Far-fetched hypothesis coming up.

Consider the following scenario. Battle Mage is scum and decides to try and use the N0 kill to not only deep-six a townie but to also cast suspicion on another townie. To do this, BM metagames to see if he can find any connection between two townies -- a grudge from another game, for example. While doing so, he discovers that =Confused= and d3sisted played together and that d3sisted made some complimentary comments about =Confused='s play. Bingo -- just what he was looking for.

He then NKs =Confused= and launches the trap by posting this:

has anyone here ever played with 'Confused' before?

And then later this:

my reason for asking about Confused, was simply that in a game like this, he seems a peculiar N0 kill, unless there was perhaps a grudge involved, or somebody had played with him before, and knew him to be a potent player.

The some sucker comes along (namely me) and takes the bait. Following BM's lead I metagame, find the connection between =Confused= and d3sisted and FoS the latter.

While it looked like his plan had worked, many people (including me) thought this was a pretty weak case and discussion about it died down pretty quickly. To get it ramped up again, BM posted this:

However, on the up side, i am very impressed with what you (Hang 'em High) seem to found with regard to Desisted. If you could post a link to where he complimented Confused, that'd be great.

in the meantime,

FoS: Desisted

He later wrote:

I was the first person to mention that there might be some significance behind the kill of Confused, over other new players. In my mind, it probably wasnt a gambit by the scum to cast suspicion on Desisted, mainly because, if it was, one of the mafia members would have mentioned it. Of course, this logic is only viable for me in particular, and i can see why you have your doubts, but you must realise, that from my point of view, and HeH's, what we have found MIGHT be significant.

Which basically describes the theory I'm presenting here and then dismisses it as a possibility by saying that scum would have brought it up. But maybe it is a valid theory -- and he's the scum who brought it up. Continuing the conversation, in a later post he wrote:

The meta-gaming with regard to Confused, was VERY useful. You must realise, that even if YOU dont believe that it was a valid policy, the comments made by people can be very insightful. It's a two-pronged sword as it were (also known as a fork).

Secondly, a N0 kill does not mean jack-shit. Commenting on kills can be WIFOM, but even then, nobody has yet cast the majority of their suspicion based on this convo (except YOU it seems).

First, let me say that I think the metagaming of the N0 kill could

possibly

have value; I definitely wouldn't go so far as saying it was VERY useful.

Now what does all this mean? Not much, probably. I warned you up front that it was far-fetched, but I still think there is a small chance that it is valid. I see three possible reasons for the N0 kill. One: d3sisted is scum and was impressed with =Confused='s play in an earlier game and decided to kill her off. Two: Battle Mage is scum and proceeded with the course of action I outlined above. Three: The N0 kill was random and we shouldn't read anything into it. I think the third case is by far the most likely. However, I do think there is a small chance that one of the other two possibilities are true, so I thought it was worthwhile to put them out there for consideration.

[Hang 'em High]

First, I want to extend my best wishes to SPAG. Really sorry to hear about your injury and I hope you improve quickly.

As for the game, I'm finding it really tough to get a read on anyone so far. I've been coming up with all sorts of bizarre theories in an attempt to get

something

to go on, but everything I've come up with just seems very weak. I think CKD got it right when he said:

My theory is that in a speed game….scum would try to lurk (as best as they could) or post but not really have a lot of content.

Lurking is not a great tell, but it can be worth noting and I think it is more likely to be significant in a speed game. I don't know if it's any more valid than any of the crazy metagame analyses I've come up with, but it's definitely worth looking at. Unfortunately, I'm going to be LA today and over the weekend. I'll try to get a new read in and post my top candidates on Monday.

[Hang 'em High]

First, I'm sorry for not posting this weekend -- I was out of town at my best friend's bachelor party and let's just say that you wouldn't have wanted me to post given my state of sobriety.

And wow -- I come back from the weekend and discover I'm being dragged toward the gallows. I was surprised to see that I was the top suspect -- I thought I had been one of the more active scum-hunters out there. But looking back over my posts I can see why you might find what I've been doing as trying to cast aspersions on people with flimsy evidence. I'll try to explain my thinking.

WARNING: LONG POST TO FOLLOW (proceed with caution)

The conversation in this game has been pretty slow, which is deadly since this is a speed game and we're really under the gun to gather information quickly. Waiting around hoping the scum would out themselves is not a good strategy, particularly in a speed game. We need to try and actively root out the scum, so that's what I've been trying to do. Since the in-game dialogue wasn't producing much of use, I went looking for any crumb of evidence that might help us out. Since it's my metagaming theories that are drawing me heat, I'll address each of them.

Theory 1: d3sisted respects =Confused='s play from an earlier game, and therefore could be the scum who targeted her for the N0 kill.

I followed Battle Mage's lead to do some metagaming regarding the N0 kill, which led to my finding on the =Confused= and d3sisted link. I knew it was weak and said so both at the time and since. But I think a weak bit of data is better than none.

Theory 2: Battle Mage is the most experienced player and his surviving the N0 kill is a little suspicious.

This is another case of me trying to unearth any potential clue about who could be scum. Arguing the reason for BM's N0 survival is very WIFOMish and I acknowledged this was a weak piece of evidence -- but it's better than nothing. I don't think it's wrong to try and uncover any piece of information that might point to scum as long as you don't overstate the importance of the finding. I specifically said this was only a "little suspicious" and I didn't use this evidence to vote BM or even to cast an FoS on him. I don't think it means much at the moment -- and it might never amount to anything. But there is a chance it could mean something later in the game, which is why I mentioned it.

Theory 3: Battle Mage is scum who NKed =Confused= and then guided me into a metagame analysis that revealed the d3sisted connection to =Confused=.

Definitely a far-fetched theory. In fact, the first line of my post was: "WARNING: Far-fetched hypothesis coming up." So why did I post this? Upon rereading, not only did BM initiate the N0 kill metagame discussion, but he also attached more importance to the results than I thought was reasonable. A few BM quotes: "i am very impressed with what you seem to found with regard to Desisted", "what we have found MIGHT be significant", "The meta-gaming with regard to Confused, was VERY useful" and "we have alot of potential to use this stuff later on". So, it seems to me that BM initiated the topic and then tried to give it more significance than it deserved. When trying to think about why he would do that, I came up with this theory. Do I think this is likely? No -- as I clearly stated. But again, any piece of potential evidence is worth noting no matter how weak it is -- as long as we don't read too much into it (which I clearly warned against doing).

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today. But that's the most likely outcome anyway, since there are at most 8 townies left and 6 of us have to agree on a lynch today if we're going to get a mafioso. So being this aggressive would be a very high risk / low reward strategy for a scum to take.

If I were town, on the other hand, my play would make perfect sense. We're on a deadline and we can't wait for the scum to out themselves. We've got to aggressively dig them up, and that's what I've been trying to do.

To summarize my playstyle: I've been actively trying to unearth scum. If you look back over my posts, you'll find that my views have been consistent. I've warned against sitting back and being cautious and have advocated aggressively pushing to unearth scum. I've also been consistent in saying that my metagame findings are weak and that we shouldn't read too much into them. In my opinion, advocating a lynch with specious arguments is scummy, but trying to find possible leads without exaggerating their importance is pro-town. I've really been trying to do the latter, but of course you folks will have to be the judge.

[Hang 'em High]

Start with the assumption that I'm town -- which I know is the case but the rest of the town won't unless I'm killed. Since I'm in obvious danger, anybody who tries to deflect my lynch is most likely not scum since scum would certainly not say anything that might derail the bandwagon against me (an innocent townie). If I get lynched, you'll see that I was town and I ask you to remember the following. On 9/13 curiouskarmadog labeled his top two suspects as me and d3sisted:

We need to get discussion started…(again) maybe we should discuss if we had to vote today who would it be for. Since it is my suggestion, I will go first.

Top two:

If I had to vote..it would be on HeH…I think so far he has posted two stretchy scum theories to see if anyone will bite on them. I think the BM theory is more plausible than the d3sisted’s…. again, this is a weak case, but I have nothing to go on.

Next would be d3sisted. I think that anyone who is lurkerish might be scum trying to hang low. By my count, he has not posted much content in about 2 weeks. Again weak by itself…

After that post the major event was the bandwagon on me that has reached L-2. How does he respond when his top suspect is in danger of being lynched? By voting for sonicpulsar with this post on 9/17:

as I am not sold on either HeH or BM's wagons yet (they both seem stretchy to me) I need to look for something else.

vote sonicpulsar

Since I know I'm town, I'm pretty much clearing CKD based on the logic at the top of this post. Now I know this only holds water if I'm town (which only I know is the case now), but if I get lynched or NKed remember this when I come up town -- if CKD was scum I don't see any reason he would have moved away from me when I was the top lynch suspect.

What I don't understand is why he's turned away from me (and to a lesser extent d3sisted); I don't think anything happened between his post on the 13th and his post on the 17th that would have changed his opinion like that. So,

@curiouskarmadog: Why did you name me and d3sisted as your top suspects and then vote for sonicpulsar?

[Hang 'em High]

Personally, I think the "scum are lurkers" theory holds promise. I just don't see any reason for the scum to expose themselves by saying anything that might draw attention. The problem is there are many possible reasons someone might lurk, only one of which is that they're scum. Just because someone is lurking doesn't mean they are scum, but it does make them a more likely suspect.

On the flip side of the coin, if someone is putting themself out there and actively trying to extract information, I think they're more likely to be town. For day one I think I'm going to give a pass to the players who seem to be digging for information and focus on the lurkers. I suspect a couple of the scum are in that group, so I'm going to look through and pick one of them for my vote. The problem with picking a lurker is there just isn't much to go on. Still, I think that's our best course of action and if nothing else it may get them to start talking more.

[Hang 'em High]

It definitely isn't much, but based on this:

I'll never underestimate the lurking tendencies of those who want to stay alive most (power roles and scum).

and this:

Scum/Power Roles: More inclined to lurk. They don't want to put themselves out there too much for fear of screwing up or saying something stupid.

I'm going to:

Unvote: Battle Mage

Vote: Sonicpulsar

I think we've got to pick a lurker to threaten and since two people have already picked SP, I'll go along. Besides, he told us scum and power roles lurk -- and he's lurking.

[Hang 'em High]

Two words: Bussing scumbuddy.

I think you've misunderstood my post. I'm not bussing CKD, I'm specifically saying I think he is town and shouldn't be lynched. I know my argument only works if I'm town (which I know I am, but obviously others don't). If I'm lynched or NKed, you'll see that I'm town and I think this makes it very likely that CKD is also town, fior the reasons I outlined in my post. I also don't see how you could think he was bussing me, since I was at L-2 and he voted for someone else despite previously naming me his top suspect.

[Hang 'em High]

My comments are in bold within the quote.

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today. But that's the most likely outcome anyway, since there are at most 8 townies left and 6 of us have to agree on a lynch today if we're going to get a mafioso. So being this aggressive would be a very high risk / low reward strategy for a scum to take.

If I were town, on the other hand, my play would make perfect sense. We're on a deadline and we can't wait for the scum to out themselves. We've got to aggressively dig them up, and that's what I've been trying to do.

To summarize my playstyle: I've been actively trying to unearth scum. If you look back over my posts, you'll find that my views have been consistent. I've warned against sitting back and being cautious and have advocated aggressively pushing to unearth scum. I've also been consistent in saying that my metagame findings are weak and that we shouldn't read too much into them. In my opinion, advocating a lynch with specious arguments is scummy, but trying to find possible leads without exaggerating their importance is pro-town. I've really been trying to do the latter, but of course you folks will have to be the judge.

For starters, beginning sentence makes you smell fishy, regardless of your alignment. Don't use it.

I'm not quite sure why you find it fishy, but I'll accept the criticism.

What more, I can tell you why you would act this way, if you were scum.

You argue from the point of view that if you were scum, you would lay quiet, as any good scum would do in a speed game. This argument has a situational flaw.

1. Let's assume you are scum for now. You are the leading wagon. If you lay quiet now, you are going hang for sure. Hence the only way out for you

is

to talk your way out. Since the best course of action is identical for a townie as well, this argument is null.

Of course I have to talk

now

, but the posts I made that put me in the hot seat were done

before

there was pressure on me. What I'm saying is if I were scum I wouldn't have been so active in the first place.

2. You metagame from the POV that scum would lay low. Whilst this is a good tactical play for scum, in the games where I am scum, I often use this to my advantage and be vocal on purpose, and I've seen many others do the same. Hence this point is a classic WIFOM.

While this is true to a limited extent in a regular game, I think it is less so in a speed game. It's harder for scum to lay low in a regular game so being a vocal scum is a reasonable play. However, in a speed game it is easier to lay low until the deadline and therefore too risky for a scum to be overly active.

[Hang 'em High]

I am not liking how one prssure vote turned into 3...since post stood out to me.

Unvote: Battle Mage

Vote: Sonicpulsar

I think we've got to pick a lurker to threaten and since two people have already picked SP, I'll go along. Besides, he told us scum and power roles lurk -- and he's lurking.

what if he is a power role? Putting that 3rd vote on him would be dangerous, right?

God, I was hoping no one would go down this path. I felt HeH's post you're quoting might have possibly revealed a powerrole breadcrumb that Sonicpulsar dropped, which is why I didn't like that post that much - but I also didn't want to go into the issue of Sonicpulsar possibly having breadcrumbed, but now that it's out there ... HeH, did you really not consider the possibility that Sonicpulsar might have been breadcrumbing a powerrole when he said that?

Honestly I didn't, because I don't see why in hell you would leave hints that you're a power role. Who has the most interest in outing a power role? Scum. So if you're a power role townie I don't think it makes any sense to drop clues that the scum might pick up on.

If he was breadcrumbing, I think it's more likely he's scum trying to lay the groundwork for a possible Cop claim gambit later on -- although now it's becoming WIFOM.

I actually took SP's post to be one of those generic statements about the game that make it look like you're contributing when you're really not.

As for being the third vote, I was doing it to put pressure and get SP to start contributing (which seemed to work). It only put him at L-3, so I'm not really worried about a quick lynch.

[Hang 'em High]

no, HeH... it seems that he's accusing CKD of bussing SP...

I don't get it -- CKD was the first vote on SP. How is that bussing him?

[Hang 'em High]

I don't see at ALL where I made comments that are generic and "seem" like they're contributing when they're really not. Mind quoting those for me?

Second, I don't see where I was breadcrumbing. I made my comments several days ago (Post 71 - August 28th, Post 99 - August 30th) and then proceeded to not post over the course of 3 days (September 14-16) with my last post being on the 14th (post 175). I realize this is a speed game but I'm guessing there are a couple of people who are far more lurkerish than myself. You're giving me too much credit that I'd lay down my plans 2 weeks ago (for a speed game nonetheless, with several replacements) so that I could cover my tracks later.

There was some speculation (by curiouskarmadog and Gorgon) that the following post by you might be breadcrumbing:

Scum/Power Roles: More inclined to lurk. They don't want to put themselves out there too much for fear of screwing up or saying something stupid.

I didn't think this was breadcrumbing, I thought this was kind of a generic post. Actually, it doesn't really bother me much -- what's bothered me about your play is the lack of content. You're certainly not alone in that regard, but I thought it was time to start applying pressure to the lurkers -- hence the reason for my vote.

I think it'd be a stupid idea to bus on Day 1. The fact that people think I was getting bussed by CKD seems fairly ludicrous. How could you think a first vote on me was a bus? If anything, it'd be classified as a distancing move, not a bus. That's an example of where Distad is using bad logic, which I usually associate with scum.

I agree with you -- I don't see how this could be considered a bussing.

FOS: HeH and Gorgon

for the relatively illogical conclusions of me being a power role based on my posts about lurking and then my proceeding to lurk. This seems like quite a stretch to me. And, if you really are townies, why the hell would you point it out in the first place? I don't have a huge issue with it, I'm just curious why you thought it deserved to be pointed out.

I think you meant CKD and Gorgon. As I said above, I didn't think you were breadcrumbing a power role (which I think would be a stupid move). If I thought for a second you were breadcrumbing I wouldn't have brought attention to the post or voted for you. I voted for you because I thought you were lurking (which you essentially admit to). I am glad to see you've been responding.

[Hang 'em High]

I FOSed HeH because of Post 253 where you claimed I was setting myself up for a Cop claim later in the game.

Let me be clear -- I don't think that's what you were doing because I don't think you were breadcrumbing at all. If you were breadcrumbing (as CKD and Gorgon suggest might be the case), I think it would be more likely you were scum setting up a possible gambit rather than a true power role. But as I've said before, I don't think that is the case. I don't think there was any breadcrumbing -- I think it was a throwaway post.

[Hang 'em High]

I'm not sure if SP is scum or not. I do think he's been lurking, which he's basically acknowledged.

EBWOP Whoops, sorry, I meant I wasn't lurking on purpose, mistype.

I think lurking is a likely scum strategy -- something SP's also acknowledged. He knows lurking could be viewed as scummy and yet he's done so anyway. My vote is designed to apply pressure and find out why, and it seems to be working. Since he received a few votes his posting has picked up, which should help us determine if he is an innocent lurker or a scum lurker. I'm not sure which group he belongs in yet.

@Sonicpulsar: Since you know lurking might be viewed as scummy, why weren't you been more active before you received votes?

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: I was responding to ChronX's question in post 267.

[Hang 'em High]

My reason for voting Sonicpulsar was to draw him into the conversation and that's been successful. Time to try again with a new target. Since Mr. Pigg is totally AWOL and isn't likely to respond at all, I'm going to vote for somebody else that seems lurky in an attempt to get them to respond.

Unvote: Sonicpulsar

Vote: d3sisted

We don't have long before deadline and I know d3sisted will be away tomorrow, so I'd like to hear from him today.

[Hang 'em High]

d3sisted's signature says he'll be away from the 19th through the 21st -- which means he's already gone and won't be back until after the deadline. This means if we're going to lynch him we'll have to do so without his input. Normally I wouldn't want to do this, but in this case I think it may be warranted.

He was up to three votes yesterday afternoon (when he was still around) and didn't make any posts defending himself, despite requests to do so. I generally wouldn't read too much into this since he could have been getting ready to leave and didn't have a chance to check in. However, I checked his other games and since he received the third vote here he has made a total of 15 posts in 6 different games -- including commenting on an already completed game.

So unless he didn't read this game at all (which is inexcusable knowing we were under a deadline), he knew he was a lynch candidate and decided to go silent. He made ample posts elsewhere, so he obviously had time to post here if he so desired. I find it very scummy that he chose to go silent when he knew that he was: 1) going out of town, 2) a lynch candidate, and 3) we were under deadline. My vote stays.

[Hang 'em High]

To me, this says that d3sisted is our deadline lynch, unless someone comes up with a

very credible

alternative, or there is reason to assume that a no lynch would be a better option.

I have some reservations over the fact that d3sisted will probably not have a chance to claim, though, so I want to hear from as many of you as are able to post before the deadline about your take on this.

I don't think a no lynch is a good option. We're not likely to have a strong night game, so no lynching robs us of our major power and gives the scum a free night kill.

I hate lynching someone without giving them the chance to claim or at least explain themselves. But he did have the chance -- and chose to ignore it. To me, that's enough to override my concerns over lynching an absentee.

[Hang 'em High]

@Battle Mage: What do you think of d3sisted going silent when he received 3 votes?

[Hang 'em High]

Given my stated aversion to lurkers, I would love to go after Mr.PiGG. Unfortunately I don't think it would do us any good since he hasn't posted anywhere since the 11th.

[Hang 'em High]

Holy crap. Things sure got interesting quick. We are having a rough start. We’ve lost the Doc and now two power roles have claimed. This sucks, but we’ve got to try and recover. I’ll address the claim in a second, but first I want to ask a couple other questions.

I think we are likely to have a strong night game. Speed robs the town of information. Deadlines are good for scum, not town. However, I do not think no lynching is a good idea.

I'm curious why you think we'll have a strong night game. Could you please elaborate?

@Battle Mage: What do you think of d3sisted going silent when he received 3 votes?

I just wanted to repost this so it wouldn't get lost in all the craziness. BM, your analysis of d3sisted did not contain any mention of his purposely going silent right before the deadline when he was a potential lynchee and was going out of town. To me, his blatant avoidance was the single scummiest thing I've seen from anyone in this game so far. BM, since you excluded that from your analysis I'm guessing you disagree with me, so I'd like to hear your take on his actions.

As for the Mason claim, the big question is whether or not we believe it. I'm leaning toward "yes", since I don't see why CKD would make the claim if it wasn't true. The only reason I could see him lying was if he and Mr.PiGG were both scum and he was trying to save Piggy's neck. But if they were scum together I think it would be a bad play for CKD to tie himself to Mr.PiGG -- I think he would be more inclined to bus his buddy. For now I'm going under the assumption that the claim is legit.

Now that brings me back to where to put my vote. At first I was equally torn between d3sisted and Mr.PiGG. But due to CKD's claim I'm passing on Pig for today. And since I find d3sisted's failure to post before leaving to be the most scummy thing I've seen so far, my decision is easy. I'm keeping my vote on d3sisted.

[Hang 'em High]

hey maybe Pigg and I will be lucky and the mafia will just pass right over us Night 1....remember mafia, there is nothing sketcher than a mason claim not followed up by a night kill...

I dislike this post. It makes it look like your claim was part of a mafia gambit and you're laying the groundwork for a WIFOM discussion if you aren't NKed tonight. At the very least you're giving ideas to the mafia. Granted this is a pretty obvious tactic but at least make them do their own work. Yucky.

[Hang 'em High]

My previous post crossed with 342 and 343.

I have no problems with ChronX's vote of Mr.PiGG without explanation. We were obviously in the business of pressuring lurkers and when PiGG showed up it wasn't a stretch to go after him. I would have put a pressure vote on him as well if I had seen his post before CKD claimed.

CKD's post 338 could be merely stating the obvious, but it could also be laying the groundwork for WIFOM tomorrow. As much as I dislike that post, I wouldn't go as far as ChronX and assert that it appears to be false -- I think it could go either way. I still think we need to pass on CKD or PiGG for tonight because I still believe the claim is more likely to be true than false. If they both survive tonight it will certainly change things and we'll have to have a WIFOM fight tomorrow about why they weren't NKed. But for now there is enough chance that they are masons that we should wait to see how the night goes.

[Hang 'em High]

I have to agree with Raffles and CKD in this case. I don't think we gain by lynching either Mr.PiGG or CKD today. They might be telling the truth and if they are I'd rather let the mafia do their own work and kill one tonight. If one of them dies then we'll know they were telling the truth and won't have wasted a lynch. If they both survive then the likelihood of the claim being false goes up and we can have a WIFOM argument tomorrow with the additional information that they survived the NK.

[Hang 'em High]

Side note: pigg you were a crappy townie and a sad mason (even your bread crumb was bad).

What bread crumb -- please point it out.

CKD, are you confirmed mason?

I'm confused. How could he be a confirmed mason?

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: Guh. You guys move quickly! My "of course I agree" was in reference to 342.

Well, duh, it's a speed game. Hey, at least we're finally living up to the name. It's amazing what a deadline and a claim will do for the activity level. Lots to discuss.

[Hang 'em High]

You can be scum-town mason or town-town mason. I'm wondering which is the case for CKD-PiGG

So you're thinking that one of them might be town and the other scum and you're asking if his role PM confirmed that they both were town? Am I getting that right? If so, to me it doesn't seem likely that a mini-game would have a 2-person mason group in which one of them was scum. A speed game is already tough on the town and such a setup would put us at a further disadvantage. I could be wrong, but I suspect that if we have a mason group that they are all town.

[Hang 'em High]

Public Service Announcement

Since things are moving so quickly here I wanted to know the vote count. I thought I would share my results so everyone knows where we stand.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

d3sisted (4): Hang 'em High, Mr.PiGG, Atticus, distad
Mr.PiGG (1): ChronX
ChronX (1): curiouskarmadog
Not Voting (5): Battle Mage, Raffles, d3sisted, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon

It's 6 to lynch now, 4 at deadline

Mod: Please confirm

[Hang 'em High]

But I think that lynching either ChronX or PiGG today would be ABSOLUTELY ridiculous, and FAR more egregious than ChronX.

I still think that d3 is the best play. I just want to get an official votecount before I put my vote back on.

I think you meant to say "But I think that lynching either curiouskarmadog or PiGG today would be ABSOLUTELY ridiculous, and FAR more egregious than ChronX.

As for the vote count:

Public Service Announcement

Since things are moving so quickly here I wanted to know the vote count. I thought I would share my results so everyone knows where we stand.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

d3sisted (4): Hang 'em High, Mr.PiGG, Atticus, distad
Mr.PiGG (1): ChronX
ChronX (1): curiouskarmadog
Not Voting (5): Battle Mage, Raffles, d3sisted, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon

It's 6 to lynch now, 4 at deadline

Mod: Please confirm

Since then, you have unvoted and everything else has remained the same.

[Hang 'em High]

Since Theo is having car troubles and we're at a critical point, here is the current vote count.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

d3sisted (5): Hang 'em High, Mr.PiGG, Atticus, distad, Sonicpulsar
Mr.PiGG (1): ChronX
ChronX (1): curiouskarmadog
Gorgon (1): Battle Mage
Not Voting (3): Raffles, d3sisted, Gorgon

It's 6 to lynch now, 4 at deadline, which I think is 12 1/2 hours away as of this post.

I think these vote totals are correct -- my apologies if I got anything wrong.

[Hang 'em High]

Still trying to absorb everything, but here are some initial thoughts. First thing I wanted to do is try and assess where we stand. I'm thinking we probably started with 9 townies and 3 scum -- I can't see starting with an 8:4 ratio considering we began with a NK and it's a speed game. That would put the town at too severe a disadvantage. So far we know:

=Confused=: Doctor
d3sisted: Vanilla Townie
Raffles: Vanilla Townie

We've also possibly got:

curiouskarmadog: Mason
Mr.PiGG: Mason

For argument's sake, let's say we believe the mason claim for now. We're left with 7 players, 3 of whom would likely be scum and 1 of whom would likely be a Cop. We could also have a vigilante, role-blocker and/or Godfather out there as well. I don't think a serial killer is likely given how the first two nights have gone. My best guess is that out of those 7 players we have 3 scum, 2 vanillas and 2 townie power roles.

Now, the above assumes we believe the mason claim. Should we? I'm inclined to say "yes", at least for today. First, CKD making that claim would have been a huge gamble for limited benefit; I think it would be a very odd play to make if he were scum. Also, if we assume the claim is legit I can see why the scum would not NK them last night. While confirmed townies are bad for the scum since it narrows our focus, CKD and Mr.PiGG are hardly confirmed. Simply by letting them live the scum have raised serious doubts about their towniness and opened us up to WIFOM discussion.

Further, masons aren't nearly as dangerous as a Cop and we most likely have one on our side, plus possibly another power role as well. I think it makes sense for the scum to make a random killing to try and kill the Cop (or other power role) since they could get lucky and nail a dangerous power role while at the same time opening up the possibility that we would take out CKD or Mr.PiGG and do some of their dirty work for them. I'm certainly not clearing CKD or PiGG -- I think there is still plenty to doubt about the claim -- but I don't think they should be our top targets today.

I think our best bet is to focus on the 7 living, unclaimed players. That's Battle Mage, Hang 'em High, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon, ChronX, Atticus and distad. When I have a little more time, those are the folks I'm going to take a closer look at (well, except myself obviously).

[Hang 'em High]

Simply by letting them live the scum have raised serious doubts about their towniness and opened us up to WIFOM discussion.

This sounds like you know for sure that the scum are actually someone other than the claimed Masons.

Explain pls.

I don't know that at all and certainly didn't mean to imply so. Earlier in the post you quote I said:

For argument's sake, let's say we believe the mason claim for now.

My whole post was working under the assumption that the mason claim was legit. For reasons I stated in that post, I tend to think it was. However, later my post I said:

I'm certainly not clearing CKD or PiGG -- I think there is still plenty to doubt about the claim -- but I don't think they should be our top targets today.

So, to answer your question -- I don't know whether the claimed masons are scum or not. The jury is still out. However, I think it is more likely they are telling the truth than lying, so at this point I think our focus should be elsewhere.

[Hang 'em High]

I was starting to look at the 7 living, unclaimed players when the following post caught my eye.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

Battle Mage, can you please call out the posts that make you think they're innocent? "Totally beyond suspicion" is pretty strong -- are you really that sure? I ask this because these three are on the following list:

I think our best bet is to focus on the 7 living, unclaimed players. That's Battle Mage, Hang 'em High, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon, ChronX, Atticus and distad.

If we believe the mason claim, then 3 of those 7 are scum (assuming there are 3 scum, which I think is likely). If the three you name are indeed innocent that only leaves four possibilities -- two of whom are you and me. I know I'm innocent and if we assume for a second you are as well, then the math doesn't work as it only leaves Gorgon and Atticus. Therefore, one of our assumptions is wrong, which means at least one of the following: A) There are only two scum; B) The mason claim is bogus; C) At least one of the three you name are scum; D) You're scum; E) I'm scum.

I don't think A) is likely; a 10:2 town to scum ratio would be too unbalanced. While I tend to think the mason claim is legitimate, B) is certainly a possibility. I don't know how to judge C), which is the reason for my question above. If D) is true, then all this speculation is moot since your list of innocents can't be believed. I know E) is not the case, although obviously you don't.

I'm writing off A) and E) as possibilities, and since I think you're likely town I'm writing off D) as well (for now, at least). That means that I think either the mason claim is a lie or at least one of the three on your list is actually scum. Since I tend to think the mason claim is true, I'm guessing that someone on your list is scum. But if you've got a solid argument for why they're town I'd reassess the likelihood that the mason claim is bogus.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP -- continuing the thoughts from my previous post.

If you believe Battle Mage's innocent list (distad, ChronX and SonicPulsar), it makes one of Gorgon and Atticus scum -- and very likely both. Right now I'm leaning toward one of two possibilities:

1) The mason claim is bogus and BM's innocent list is accurate. This would mean the scum are CKD, Mr.PiGG and either Gorgon or Atticus.

2) The mason claim is legitimate and one of BM's innocent list is inaccurate. In this case the scum are Gorgon, Atticus and one of distad, ChronX and Sonicpulsar).

Both of these scenarios work off the assumption that both Battle Mage and I are innocent, which I think is the case. Well, I know I am innocent and I'm leaning that way for BM as well. And it also relies heavily on Battle Mage's innocent list. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'd like to hear his reasons for listing those three. He was very sure based on his language.

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - what's your case for saying BM is innocent?

I don't know that he's innocent. I've gotten a good vibe from him but I don't have anything specific that makes me want to clear him. For now I'm working under the assumption that he is town because it makes analysing his innocent list potentially worthwhile. If BM is scum, then all the analysis I did in my recent posts was pointless (which I recognize is a possibility and I don't want to overlook that). However, if he is town and he has good reasoning behind his innocent list then I think it can narrow our focus considerably.

HeH is saying way too often how town he is.

I did so because much of my theory only works if I'm town and I wanted to make it clear that I understood that limitation.

[Hang 'em High]

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

This post bothers me.

Why?

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry I haven't posted lately -- life's had me by the short hairs this week and has been pulling hard. Things should calm down by Monday so I'll definitely post then if not earlier.

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry for the LA lately -- just when I thought life was going to finally get less crazy, I spent Saturday in the hospital with my 3 year old (she is fine) and Sunday we had a small electrical fire (thankfully nothing major). Luckily things are looking up and I am back and ready to go again. I'm catching up now and will definitely post later today. I'll also be more active going forward.

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - As far as I'm concerned, take your time. Those are some pretty big RL issues to worry about. I know we're under a deadline, but know the priorities.

Good luck.

Thanks for the concern. Luckily everything turned out to be minor in the end -- but it was a bit hectic this weekend. Now that all the real life nonsense is clearing up, I'm back to concentrating on what's important -- mafia. I've completed my reread but it took a lot longer than I thought. I won't have time to address everything tonight, but I'll start doing so in bits and pieces. First, I'll answer BM's query.

I await an answer to this question:

HeH-did you think i was protown yesterday, or did you change your mind after seeing the events at the end of day/overnight?

I spent most of yesterday thinking you were likely protown. Nothing specific, but you seemed to be legitimately scum-hunting. I don't know how to read your reluctance to join the d3sisted bandwagon yesterday. You could be a townie who simply thought d3sisted was innocent or you could be a scum who wanted to stay off a townie bandwagon that was going to succeed without you. I really don't know what to think about that. Overall, at the start of day 2 I was still leaning slightly to you being town. During my latest reread, however, I'm less sure you are innocent. Despite your explanation, I thought you were rolefishing for the Cop.

First I'm going to go through and answer the questions that were directed at me over the last few days and then I'm going to put together my suspect list and make a vote. I won't get it all done tonight, but I'm going to keep plugging away.

[Hang 'em High]

Thought I should respond to this post. My comments are in bold within the quote.

Post 0: Starts off by expressing frustration over having lost the Doc; supposedly a scumtell, but I think this can be uttered by town and scum alike. Perhaps experienced players avoid this, but I think it's a natural thing to do. A 'null-tell' in my eyes, if you will.

Post 2: Follows up BM's query about =Confused= with a FOS against d3sisted because 'it's fair to say he was impressed with =Confused='s game and might consider him a threat.' Also, it's interesting to note that HeH sees NK-ing players who might be a threat as a viable scum strategy. Folllows this up with saying "I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious."

Post 4: Queries BM as to why he thinks he's scummy; sounds reasonable.

Post 5: Corrects BM's overstatement of his words; also reasonable.

Post 7: A long post describing his NK ponderings, and stresses that it's a little suspicious that BM survived N0.

Post 10: Admits that his NK arguments are weak, and that he was doing this in response to other people's questions/comments (only BM I think, although HeH uses the plural).

Post 13: Casts suspicion on Antipathy and SurveySays for lurking, an easy way out? (Although I'm very guilty of picking on lurkers myself, with horrid results so far). Dismisses this at the end of his post, though.

I plead guilty to attacking lurkers. I think lurkers are more likely to be scum. Certainly scum can be active and townies can be lurky, but overall I think townies are better served trying to dig up information while scum are better served staying under the radar. It's not perfect, of course, but it is a slight indication IMO.

Post 17: Puts forth his 'BM is scum who set up the =Confused=/d3sisted trap against me' theory. Again, admits this is weak.

Post 19: His long defensive post, which Raffles picked apart. Reiterates his theories and the reasoning behind them, and then there is this:

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today.

As Raffles pointed out, this can easily be seen as WIFOM; deliberately acting in a way one thinks scum are unlikely to act and then, when under threat, pointing this out. I bought this defense because I was thinking along the same lines, that scum would be unlikely to act this way, but now I'm not so sure. Seeing that d3sisted surprised me quite a bit, it seems that it might be hard to find scum from the way that 'scum would be likely to act' in a game like this.

I agree that my argument could be WIFOM, but it's a matter of probabilities. A scum might be aggressive, but I think it would be overly risky to do so in a speed game. It's not definitive, but I think an aggressive player is more likely to be townie. Yes, a scum could be aggressive and then make the argument you outline, but I think it would be better to simply not draw so much attention in the first place.

Post 20: Asks us to start with the assumption that he's town, not for the last time. Warns that 'anybody who tries to deflect my lynch is most likely not scum since scum would certainly not say anything that might derail the bandwagon against me' ... could be a desperate measure to get people off his case so they won't look scummy. Ends this with a very reasonable question though: Why did ckd move away from HeH and d3sisted as suspects?

Post 21: Agrees that lurkers need to be looked at. Fair enough.

Post 22: Votes SP as a lurker, quoting SP himself; this is the post that made me unhappy, as made infamous by now. A dead issue now, though. But I do find it odd that he needed to quote those comments of SP to vote for him.

I understand why you were unhappy with my post -- all I can say is I honestly did not consider that a town power role would breadcrumb that fact. I still don't understand why someone would do so.

Post 23: Misunderstands (I think) d3sisted, which is not strange considering how d3sisted stated this particular case of his.

Post 24: Responds to Raffles; explains that he still thinks it's better for scum to lie low in a speed game.

Post 25: Responds to my outburst about the possible breadcrumbing; explains. Fair enough. Suggests that SP might have been setting up a false claim; casting suspicion on SP?

Post 27/28: Responds to SP about the breadcrumbing; nothing lucrative here.

Post 29: Repeats that lurking is a valid scum strategy, asks SP an interesting question: "@Sonicpulsar: Since you know lurking might be viewed as scummy, why weren't you been more active before you received votes?"

Post 31: Votes d3sisted to pressure him and hear from him before he goes away.

Post 32: A very interesting post. Here he comes up with the theory that d3isted made himself scarce, to avoid being lynched. I bought into this, but now I see that although the reason that d3isted vanished was so he wouldn't get lynched, it was obviously not because he was scum. I think this is the post that ultimately sealed d3sisted's fate.

I absolutely pushed hard for d3sisted's lynch because I though his vanishing act was extremely scummy considering he posted so extensively in other games during the same time. I was very surprised when he came back town, because I really thought the case against him was strong. I was wrong

.

Post 33: Stresses that "he [d3sisted] did have the chance -- and chose to ignore it. To me, that's enough to override my concerns over lynching an absentee."

Post 34: "@Battle Mage: What do you think of d3sisted going silent when he received 3 votes?" Again, pressing the point of d3sisted's absence.

I was also disturbed that BM would analyze d3sisted without even mentioning what I thought was the most scummy thing the latter did. I wanted BM to explain why (which he still hasn't done, unless I missed it).

Post 35: "Given my stated aversion to lurkers, I would love to go after Mr.PiGG. Unfortunately I don't think it would do us any good since he hasn't posted anywhere since the 11th." ... reasonable enough, but again, pushing the 'lurkers might be scum' theory.

Post 36: Again asks BM why he thinks d3sisted went silent and repeats that this is suspicious. Interestingly, BM never really answered this, although he answered similar concerns of mine, I think ... he seemed to agree with this point, but didn't want to lynch d3sisted because he didn't look scummy to him. Note: Yes, BM definitely could have opposed the d3sisted lynch more, if he really wanted to look town.

Post 37: Correctly (IMO) calls ckd on the fact that his post that perhaps the scum might not kill the masons looked bad and possibly scummy.

Post 38: Defends ChronX for his vote of MR.PiGG (Correctly, IMO). Also says: "CKD's post 338 could be merely stating the obvious, but it could also be laying the groundwork for WIFOM tomorrow." What do you think of this today, HeH?

I'm inclined to believe the claim, particularly in light of CKD getting permission from the mod to post information about the role. But boy CKD is making some posts that make me squirm. I'll elaborate when I go into my suspect list in a later post.

Post 39: Agrees that ckd or MR.PiGG shouldn't be lynched on day 1.

Post 41: Pointed questions; good.

Post 46: First post on day 2. Ponders the setup; looks reasonable to me, although I remember having seen BM ask HeH query about it, but he never responded.

I think I've answered his questions, but if not please point it out and I'll answer anything I've overlooked.

Post 47: Replies to my query about the assumption that the scum are indeed not the claimed masons; reasonable enough, but it still bugs me a little.

Post 48/49: An interesting line of thought about BM's 'clear' list and how it corresponds with the number of living players and the mason claim. Looks useful, but it's another example of HeH's very general ponderings. I often get the feeling that he's trying a little too hard too be seen to be thinking things through ...

Well, I am trying to think things through. Isn't that the idea?

Post 50: Responds to my query about BM's innocence; fair enough. Responds to ChronX; "HeH is saying way too often how town he is." ... "I did so because much of my theory only works if I'm town and I wanted to make it clear that I understood that limitation." ... sounds fair enough I guess.

Verdict:

I don't think HeH has been very helpful in this game. The only real pressure he has placed on anyone was on d3sisted for being absent, and he turned out to be town. Now, I'm not laying the blame on the d3sisted lynch on him, but he did help a lot with it.

I did -- I thought it was the best case at the time. Looking back, I still feel that way, even though the result sucked.

Also, he is definitely someone who could have seen Raffles as a threat. The rest of the time, it's been some very vague theories, in which even he has little confidence. He helped BM drag the NK discussion along, which is something I agree was of little use. He's also very insistent that scum will lurk in this game, and that anyone not lurking is likely town - thus clearing himself.

I do think being aggressive is more likely something a townie would do. I don't think we should clear anyone on that basis alone, however -- it's just an indication. It seems like people don't agree with me on this, so I'll accept the criticism and drop the issue.

I'm starting to lean towards the idea that it's just a WIFOM tactic, especially in that his theories have been distracting more than helpful. He often says things like "I know I'm town ..." etc. ... but I'm actually not sure if that's a tell; there are certainly scummier things about him.

Yes, I know that unhelpful is not completely the same as scummy, but this is my number one lead right now ...

For now,

FoS: Hang 'em High

... I'll do some more later.

I've got to head out now, so I'll post more tomorrow (or tonight if the family gives me a break).

[Hang 'em High]

interesting.

Care to elaborate?

[Hang 'em High]

I think I've answered all the questions that were directed at me. If I missed something I apologize -- please point it out and I'll be happy to address it. Now I'm going to do an analysis of the remaining players. I'll probably break it up into a few different posts. First I'm going to start with the claimed masons, who I'll do together.

d3sisted II/Mr.PiGG and Curiouskarmadog

. As I've said before, I'm inclined to believe the claim since it seemed like a far too risky gambit for the scum. If CKD was scum, I just don't see why he would have claimed -- I think he would have simply let PiGG swing rather than exposing both of them. And then CKD went through the whole exercise of asking the mod for permission about what he could say. While it could be an elaborate ruse, it seems more likely to me to be legitimate. Having said that, I'm finding some stuff about CKD and Mr.Pigg/d3sisted II that is scummy. I disliked this post from day 1:

hey maybe Pigg and I will be lucky and the mafia will just pass right over us Night 1....remember mafia, there is nothing sketcher than a mason claim not followed up by a night kill...

Then, after a few people mentioned their dislike for that post, he comes back on day 2 with a similar post:

well this is rich, neither one of us was NKed, YOU SCREWED UP MAFIA.

The think that they will be able to push a case against Pigg or I to get the town to do their dirty work. I dont think they will fall for it.

These really make it seem like you're trying too hard to come up with an explanation for your survival before anyone put pressure on you about it. Comes across as WAY too defensive for my taste. On the flip side, I do like CKD's day 1 pursuit of ChronX for keeping his vote on a claimed mason and I like his push against Battle Mage for the latter's cop claim request.

As for Mr.PiGG/d3sisted II, PiGG was certainly putting out scum vibes on day 1 and was likely only saved by CKD's claim. I don't agree with d3sisted II's analysis of the bandwagon hopping near the end of day 1. While it's true that scum would do this, it's also true that a reasonable townie would do it as well. A number of people agreed that we should pressure the lurkers and that's what was happening. Sonicpulsar got votes and then people backed off when he posted. We then went after d3sisted I since PiGG was MIA. When PiGG reappeared with a scummy post, people turned their attention to him -- particularly since d3sisted I was on vacation. After the mason claim, people backed away from PiGG and revisited d3sisted I. I think all the bandwagon hopping that happened there were reasonable responses to what was happening. Although I disagree with his interpretation of the end of day 1, I don't think that makes d3sisted II scummy -- I actually look at it as a reasonable attempt to unearth scum.

Conclusion: CKD has done some scummy things but has also aggressively hunted for scum -- although his hunting could be scum trying to steer us towards a townie. Mr.PiGG was scummy, but I think d3sisted II has been fine. The major issue with these two comes down to whether or not you believe the claim. I'm leaning toward "yes", although the jury is still out. For today, however, I'm putting them down as likely town.

[Hang 'em High]

Sonicpulsar

. Started out day 1 very slow with posts like this:

I'll wait for more players to check in before I say too much else.

I guess I'm just waiting to respond to what others say at this point.

Unvote

til I hear from the new guys.

At the moment, I'm not lurking but I don't really have a lot to say.

I'll hold off on voting to see how people respond to the fact that I'm was lurking on purpose.

As I read I kept getting the impression that he was waiting for other people to make things happen and not trying to make things happen himself. It seems he's not trying to unearth scum, which doesn't help the town. He does kind of explain this a couple of times:

Someone will inevitably come out annoying or stupid and we can go from there.

No one has really said anything particularly stupid or illogical thus far. That's what I tend to look for and jump on.

While this is fair, he didn't put pressure on anyone that would lead them to say anything stupid. He also comments quite a bit that there is little to go on, but doesn't say or do anything to get things moving. Seems very passive. Now I don't know if this makes him scummy, but it certainly doesn't help the town's cause either. As day 1 progressed he picked things up and started getting more aggressive. This makes me inclined to think his early lack of scumhunting was due to the early slow pace of the game rather than a desire to lay low. Still, I'm not writing it off entirely.

He's mentioned a couple of times that he's getting a scum vibe from distad, but hasn't given us much detail as to why.

@Sonicpulsar

: could you please expand on your suspicions of distad?

There are also times that SP doesn't appear to be paying close attention. He's confused people in his arguments a couple of times and misinterpreted ChronX's words. In each case however, he pointed out his own mistake so I think this is a null tell. A little more interesting is that he misstated his own voting pattern.

Here's the end-of-D1 vote analysis I promised...

Player: vote

Gorgon: d3sisted, MrPigg, unvote
Distad: MrPigg, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted
Sonicpulsar: MrPigg, unvote, d3sisted
ChronX: d3sisted, MrPigg
Atticus: d3sisted
HeH: d3sisted
BM: Gorgon

From that, I'm seeing Distad, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar as possible scum (in that order).

Another point of interest is ChronX's most recent vote on Gorgon. By my count, that is the fourth following/BW vote he has cast this game. That exceptionally suspic if you ask me.

FoS: distad, ChronX

My original vote on Pigg was purely random (on page 1 I believe). Just thought I'd point that out.

D3sisted called him on this and he never responded.

Uh huh. Then you voted Pigg again later in the day.

Not knowing your own voting pattern is odd, although based on his earlier misstatements I'm not inclined to read too much into it. Besides, I don't find anything suspicious about his voting pattern anyway.

Conclusion: I don't have a strong read on Sonicpulsar at this point either way. I'm thinking he's a possible scum candidate, but I've got to see how he compares to some of the others to see where he falls on the list.

[Hang 'em High]

In response to D3ssisted, did I miss the post IN THIS GAME where you stated you were on V/LA? Honestly, I may have missed it. From what I saw (quick scan) your last post before you were lynched was post 238 on Sept 17th. The last "day" where you actually contributed to the game was Sept 14/15th. The lynch happened on the 21st.

If my memory is correct, d3sisted had put in his signature that he would be away.

[Hang 'em High]

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

Wow, you seem to be getting overly defensive. I'd hardly classify my analysis of you as an attack. First, I never said you were wishy-washy, I said you were passive -- that's very different. I said you weren't aggressive early in day 1 and I think that's very fair. I then said you picked up the pace later in the day and were more aggressive. Based on those two observations, I concluded that portion of my analysis with:

This makes me inclined to think his early lack of scumhunting was due to the early slow pace of the game rather than a desire to lay low. Still, I'm not writing it off entirely.

Do you really think this qualifies as an attack? To me it seems like a balanced analysis of your game. Later I talked about some mistakes you made, but then said that I consider them a null tell. I then conclude my entire review of your play with:

Conclusion: I don't have a strong read on Sonicpulsar at this point either way. I'm thinking he's a possible scum candidate, but I've got to see how he compares to some of the others to see where he falls on the list.

Boy, that's a vicious attack. I didn't vote for you, point a FoS at you or even say you were likely scum. And yet you use this "attack" as a reason to vote for me. I'd like to hear the other reasons for your vote.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: For reference, my previous post crossed with ChronX's.

[Hang 'em High]

ChronX

. His play seems pretty pro-town -- he has been aggressively pursuing scum. He puts forth theories and backs them up with facts and votes. He's gone after a wide variety of people -- his votes have hit d3sisted I, BattleMage, Curiouskarmadog, Mr.PiGG, me and Gorgon. He's not a follower. When I was bandwagoned on day 1 he instead went after Battle Mage. While this could be viewed as trying to distance himself from a bandwagon, this is probably not the case since he later joined both the d3sisted I and Mr.PiGG bandwagons.

The one thing he's done that bothers me was keeping his vote on Mr.PiGG even after the mason claim. He did give reasons he didn't believe the claim and I think his logic was sound. However, being suspicious of the claim isn't enough to warrant voting for a claimed power role. As day 2 progressed he did back off his attack on CKD.

Conclusion: The vote on a claimed mason bothers me, but aside from that I think he's been a solid, pro-town scum hunter. I realize he could be scum trying to direct the conversation, but by and large I like his logic. Verdict: likely town.

[Hang 'em High]

Atticus

. Ugh. Is obviously having a hard time keeping up with the game. Promises to post analysis and then fails to do so. I really believe it is due to RL issues and it is consistent with another game I'm in with him, so I'm not going to read too much into it. However, his lack of posting makes it very difficult to get a read on him. Now, looking at what he has posted, I thought this was interesting.

I'd like to stick with HeH for scum at this point. I would have to go back through the couple of posts again to get some pinpoints, which right now I am too tired to do. But his comments and defense for his bandwagon seem rather weak. I'll keep my vote where it is.

However, he hadn't voted for me. When Gorgon pointed this out to him, Atticus responded with:

Somehow I thought I was voting for him. I guess I will keep it in my pocket then.

Not that I'm begging for votes, but it seems odd that he first thought he was confirming a vote on me and then decided not to vote for me at all. Seems inconsistent.

On day 2 he made the following post:

Alright, if I had to kill 3 people right now, they would be ChronX, HeH, and Gorgon.

ChronX because he does post often, but it seems to me he rarely has his own opinions, or is actually scum-hunting.

HeH because, like ChronX, he posts often, but it's hard to see anything that's very hard-pressing.

Gorgon I just get a bad feeling from. Not sure why.

I know this really isn't much, but I believe the mason claim, I believe I know who the cop is, BM looks town, and distad appears very honest and unscumlike.

I find his take on ChronX to be particularly odd. As I mentioned in my analysis of ChronX, I think he's been actively scum hunting and does express his own opinions. I think Atticus' take is just wrong. I've haven't done my analysis of Gorgon yet, so I don't know where he'll fall on my suspect list. But Atticus' explanation of why he would kill Gorgon is really flimsy.

Conclusion: It's very hard to get a read on Atticus due to his lack of posting. What little he has posted, I don't really like. While it's possible he could be a non-contributing townie, it's also possible he's a non-contributing scum. If he's the former, he's not helping us with his lack of content. I'd like to hear more from him in order to get a better read, but right now he's my top suspect out of the people I've analyzed. In fact, I'll back that up with a

Vote: Atticus

, although I may change my mind (and vote) as I work my way through the rest of the list.

[Hang 'em High]

I consider it an attack when someone quotes me 7 different times and seemingly makes an analysis supported by those quotes when the same could be done of just about anyone.

Well, I

am

doing an analysis of everyone. You just happened to be third on the list behind CKD and d3sisted II. And I used those quotes to back up my assertion that you were doing a lot of waiting around early in the game. I think that's valid.

In other words, I could probably take just about anyone who's posted a fair amount, quote them 7 times (with very little context and one-liners), make an analysis, and come to whatever conclusion I originally set out to make.

While what you say is true, I take exception to the implication that I set out trying to reach a particular conclusion. I tried to look at your posts from the point of view of "could he be scum" and "could he be town". I stand by my analysis and don't think my take was biased in either direction, although that's really for everyone else to decide.

I don't like that you contradict yourself when explaining your vote against me. In your second response to my post, you said:

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

But then in a subsequent post you said:

My retaliation is mostly as a result of your analysis of me. Upon reflection, I got more of a scum vibe coming from your analysis because it was so....spineless (for lack of a better word).

So which is it? You said at first that your vote for me was really not an OMGUS vote, but then later you said it was mostly retaliation for my analysis. At first you voted me because I attacked you, which was "the straw that broke the camel's back", but then later your vote was because I was "spineless". Again, which was it? Was I attacking or spineless (they seem mutually exclusive)? Was it an OMGUS vote or not?

[Hang 'em High]

i'd be interested to see the top 2 lynches for today from everyone.

I'll be providing mine as soon as I complete my analysis of everyone -- I've still got Gorgon, distad and you to complete. I'm heading out now so I won't be able to do any more today, but I'll have it tomorrow.

Who are your top 2 choices?

[Hang 'em High]

distad

. He was vote hopping like crazy early in day 1 and some people didn't like it. Personally, I don't have a problem with it -- to me his votes seemed designed to pressure people a bit and generate discussion, which is particularly important in a speed game. I like his play overall. Despite the fact that he's been regularly coming after me, the way he goes about pressuring me (and others) seems reasonable. He points out specific concerns he has and backs them up with a vote. If he likes the explanation he moves on, if not he presses the attack. He actually seems to listen to and try and understand people's response.

Sonicpulsar has mentioned that he finds distad scummy. He summarizes his case here:

As for Distad, ever since the end of Day 1, I've been getting this vibe that Distad is trying just a bit too hard to appear protown. I'm not entirely sure I can quote a post illustrating it, but I get an overall ungenuine feeling from his posts. As was stated a few pages ago, he was wishy washy toward the end of Day 1 but I don't read that as too much of a scumtell. But, as I've stated before, I seem to be a vast minority on this.

Personally, I don't really see it. Distad has appeared protown to me, but I can't make the leap to say that means he's scum -- too WIFOMish. I don't have an issue with his end of day 1 voting pattern -- here was his defense:

It's not being wishy washy. Look at that sequence of events.

D3 was acting very suspicious. I clearly wasn't the only person thinking that.

You (Pigg) come out with an out-of-nowhere comment/vote. It was ridiculously dirty. Still, I didn't vote for you(Pigg). I unvoted from D3 until I could figure out what was going on.

CKD makes the mason claim. I move my vote back to D3 where it had been prior to the chaos.

I did not jump wagons. I simply backed up to figure out what was going on.

ChronX flopped. Gorgon flopped. I did not.

And amusingly, I noticed the gender change and thought I had totally missed it before.

To me this is entirely reasonable.

Conclusion: He seems pretty pro-town to me. I don't see anything he's done that strikes me as scummy. Unless something new comes to light, I don't think he's the play for today.

[Hang 'em High]

Battle Mage

. Let me start off by saying that I entered this analysis with the impression BM was town, although I had been getting some bad vibes from him lately. I tried to put aside any preconceived impressions I had when starting this analysis. Here is what I found.

First, BM is the king of hyperbole. A few examples:

However, on the up side, i am very impressed with what you seem to found with regard to Desisted.

The meta-gaming with regard to Confused, was VERY useful.

Personally, this is one of the most informative early game stages i've experienced, and we have alot of potential to use this stuff later on.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

He definitely has a tendency to exaggerate: "very impressed", "VERY userful", "the most informative", "alot of potential", "totally beyond suspicion". At first I didn't like this, since it appears to me he is making more of something than is reasonable. However, I've come to the conclusion that it's just his style and probably doesn't mean anything. He comes across as very confident and this fits into that pattern.

I find his postings to be kind of hard to follow at times -- they come off as very "stream of consciousness" and scattered. Is OMGUSsy at times -- he tends to attack people who attack him. He even admits to it:

yeh, i'm an OMGUSsy newb at times. Get used to it.

I don't think this is scummy, but it might make me put a little less stock in some of his arguments when he is counterattacking someone.

He's not always consistent with his views. For example, when discussing the N0 kill he says:

and i agree with HeH that i was expecting me to be the target.

But then later he votes for me on that basis, saying:

However, you are using the WIFOM argument, that i have not been NKed, as a reason to kill me, which is inherently scummy.

Meanwhile, I did no such thing -- I didn't vote for him or FoS him. I merely said his survival was a little suspicious. I do think he backtracked a little here -- at first he agreed with my take and then he later voted me for the same reason. Even though I don't like this, I'm again thinking it's a playstyle thing. He seems hyperaggressive and OMGUSsy when people raise points against him.

Another example of this was his argument with CKD over BM's call for a cop claim. When CKD attacked him, BM responded very aggressively:

I'm finding it hard to keep making excuses for you CKD. If you continue this erratic and opportunistic behaviour, its going to be very tough for me to keep my vote off you.

I read this as a simple threat: "keep pressuring me and I'll vote for you". This is again something I don't like, but it fits into BM's behavior and could just be a play style thing.

Boy this is dragging out. Sorry for making this so long, but I'm really trying to get a read on BM. His play style is difficult for me to figure out and I'm trying to be fair. Try to bear with me -- I know it's tedious. I'm now going to move on to the two most important things (IMO) about BM.

First is his pushing for a cop claim. Here's the post:

I think, if the cop can either prove or disprove the mason-claim, he should come forward. Obviously if he cant, he should stay hidden until he can. Of course, it would mean losing the Cop, but, in killing the Cop, the scum would clear 2 people from our suspect list. I think its worth it.

At first I didn't like this, but on reread I don't think it's a ridiculous point of view. After further discussion, he amended his view in two different posts by stating:

Post 431 by Chronx deserves comment, because it raises the possibility of one of the claimed masons being a Godfather (though i had mentioned mafia power roles, i hadnt considered this aspect in detail). As such, it might not be wise for a cop claim now, unless the player in question feels they should (this is all assuming that we have a cop). Until we see what the scum are listed as, we cant really evaluate this more.

wtf? is it impossible for someone to change their mind around here?
I thought a cop claim was a good idea-then when Chronx made his point about a GF, i realised i was wrong.
IS THAT OK?

Makes sense to me. After hearing ChronX's strong argument against the cop claiming, BM changed his mind. I think that's reasonable. While it's possible he is scum who was trying to out the cop, it seems more likely to me that he at first thought a claim would be good if it could clear or indict the masons and that he later changed his mind. Overall, I don't find this chain of events problematic.

The final big thing I want to look at about BM is his case against Gorgon. However, since I haven't reviewed Gorgon yet and this analysis is too damned long already, I'm going to hold off for now. Gorgon is the last person I have to review and I'll do so in a little while. I'll comment on Battle Mage's case in that review.

Conclusion: I find Battle Mage very hard to read. In isolation I find some of his posts to be overly defensive and hyperaggressive, but taken as a whole that seems to be his play style. I don't like that style of play, but that's just personal preference and in the overall context I can't say I find his posts scummy. Going in I thought his cop claim request was yucky, but on further consideration I don't find it really bad. Although I admit he's tough to get a handle on, overall I'm putting him more on the pro-town side. I reserve the right to modify this opinion once I've completed my analysis of Gorgon and BM's case against him.

[Hang 'em High]

Gorgon

. Has a tendency to suck up to people, particularly Battle Mage. But at the same time, he went after Battle Mage quite a bit in the early going. Since it seems to me that BM tends to react harshly to those targeting him, this might explain why BM has been pushing for a Gorgon lynch. Later, Gorgon backed down from BM although his reasons for doing so seem sound.

I don't like this post:

I don't know ... HeH's post that distad quotes immediately follows BM's post where he says:

my reason for asking about Confused, was simply that in a game like this, he seems a peculiar N0 kill, unless there was perhaps a grudge involved, or somebody had played with him before, and knew him to be a potent player.

So following this up with some research into this issue seems like a natural thing to do to me. Anyway, it seemed natural to me at the time.

Also, if HeH is scum, bringing up the NK ponderings again, and with such an elaborate theory, seems like a pretty reckless gambit at this point ... it would make more sense to me to just lay low and let the time tick away, given that we're on a tight deadline.

That said, we seriously need a bandwagon to get things moving, IMO, so ...

Unvote: Mr.PiGG

Vote: HeH

Plus, the fact that HeH was the first to mention suspicion against BM for having survived N0 is actually an interesting point to note ...

Not so much for the fact that he targeted me as for the fact that he states a few reasons why he thinks my actions make sense... and then votes me anyway. It's one thing to vote for me if you think I'm scummy, but to state my actions are justified and then hop on the bandwagon anyway doesn't sit well with me. Later he even said the following:

I felt that the bandwagon on HeH was weak all along and just waiting to derail ... but maybe because I was never that sold on HeH to begin with.

This makes me wonder if he is scum trying to appear reluctant to join a bandwagon while still climbing on board. Or he could just be an unsure townie who is reluctant to commit. It could go either way, but it does give me pause.

He pushed to go after lurkers, something with which I agree. He was attacked for this post:

Okay, I'm ready to vote again. If the next bandwagon is going to be an anti-lurker wagon, it makes sense to add to the vote that's already out there.

Vote: Sonicpulsar

But I don't really have a problem with it. I agree with his defense, which was:

I already said I was interested in a wagon on a lurker, and I joined one. I got tired of waiting for other people to show up and decided to vote.

I think he made a good observation here:

SP, I'm not voting for you, but d3sisted. The only one voting for you right now is HeH. Are you paying attention at all? You seem to be overly concerned about defending yourself, as opposed to actually being in this game and trying to figure out what's going on.

This struck me as right on target, particularly after Sonicpulsar's response to my recent analysis.

I found the following posts a little ironic, since he called out Battle Mage and Mr.PiGG for the same thing Gorgon did to me earlier:

3. The only thing that has been directed at me in particular recently from what i can see, is the accusation from Gorgon that i am 'following Chronx blindly', by voting for the same person. I need to reread, but Chronx gives me protown vibes, and his vote made sense to me. We need a lynch soon, and BWing seemed like a good idea at the time.

Well, it was just that you didn't say anything about your own feelings towards ckd, just basically that you agreed with ChronX, so I found it a little odd that you would bandwagon with no explanation beyond that. I do agree that bandwagons are a must, though.

I've thought about it.

Unvote

Vote: MR.PiGG

At least he's more likely than d3sisted to be around to defend himself/claim.

Also, I very much did not like him mindlessly getting on the d3sisted bandwagon like that.

Near the end of day 1 when I posted that d3sisted was posting elsewhere but not here, he didn't take me at my word but went and verified my statement. I like that.

Now that I've gone through all Gorgon's posts, I'm going to quote Battle Mage's post where he summarizes the case against Gorgon and post my comments in bold within the quote:

HonoraryHitchhiker/Gorgon. Again, no posts from the original player to analyse. Onto Gorgon then. His first post in the game was quite scummy, for reasons already said. Scum often comment on NK’s in a bid to make themselves look more protown.

Eh, I don't know if this mean much.

His posts about me possibly come under the category of sucking-up, but to be fair, Gorgon appeared genuine here. He managed to back up his statements which is a good sign.
In his post 3, he again makes a game related inference, but instead of being confident about it, he asks me to back him up. In this post he also comments that the discussion should halt while we wait for inactives to show up.
3 RL hours later, and he has posted again, this time with a BW vote on D3sisted. His post 6, seems a bit concerned, at the possibility of another protection role. Gorgon certainly exhibits some strong confidence issues. His post 8 is a fantastic example. Not only is everything he says followed by an attempt to fish for approval, but he also changes his mind infinite times in each post.

This is true.

Again, Gorgon makes some protownish posts with regard to the town needing to lynch, which gives me a good vibe about him.

Eh, those protownish posts don't mean anything to me -- they're kind of generic comments that don't really advance the conversation. I don't think it's bad, but I don't think it indicates towniness either.

On the other hand, I dislike his way of getting everyone else to do the work for him, by pressurising others to post content, and not leading by example.

I don't totally agree with this. He does pressure other people to post content, but he does post some content of his own as well.

Post 18 stinks of informed minorityness,

I don't see this at all

and to some extent, shows the same paranoia exhibited by Chronx-only more nervous in its presentation. I’m not exactly sure what to think about it.
Lol, I challenge anyone to read through Gorgons posts, and count the times that he changes his opinion on me. Every post I seem to go from scummy-townish-scummy-townish. Rofl.

I agree with this.

I haven’t analysed SonicPulsar atall yet, so post 25 by Gorgon could be interesting later. Post 31 is very bad. I think ive already commented on this.
On the other hand, he does seem confident about his own ability, as in the next post, he challenges me to pressure him. Could be a scumbags jerk-reaction, but more likely, he simply doesn’t think he has done anything wrong (null tell).
In post 33, he legitimately accuses me of following Chronx blindly. I don’t understand the last commented in this post, which appears to be directed at me.
Explanation needed I think.
Rofl. He also thinks that HeH’s post was a power-role breadcrumb. Boy, I hope this guy is scum. Lol
Post 42 is another good example of Gorgon trying to stay in everyone’s good books, and let us all argue the day away. Non-commital is the word I’d use.
Post 46 is interesting, as it’s the second time I’ve seen him use the term ‘BM has an ace up his sleeve’. I think he may be over-estimating me a little here. Lol
Post 53. The most recent post by Gorgon, and another absolute corker. His last post is a classic example of scum being non-commital, trying to look protown, and generally, avoid attention.

Verdict: Probably Scum

I think Gorgon is a great play for today. He has been consistently scummy looking, and i think his lynch will tell us alot.

Vote: Gorgon

Conclusion: Gorgon has made some good posts and some scummy ones. His play and opinions have been somewhat inconsistent. Based on my own analysis, I'd lean slightly toward scum. As for Battle Mage's case, I'd say some of it is solid and some of it is reaching.

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry for the ridiculously lengthy analysis. But I wanted to give everyone an in-depth look and it just came out that way.

anyway, here is a real short summary of all my analyses. I'm suspicious about the claimed masons (Curiouskarmadog and d3sisted II), but I don't think they're the play today. I categorize the remaining 6 as follows:

Likely town: ChronX and distad
Leaning town: Battle Mage
Possible scum: Sonicpulsar, Atticus and Gorgon

The last 3 are pretty equal in my book. If I had to pick the top 2, I'd go with Atticus and Gorgon.

[Hang 'em High]

Here's the latest suspect list (updating d3sisted's list):

distad: Gorgon, Atticus
Chronx: Gorgon, Hang 'em High & Sonicpulsar
Gorgon: Hang 'em High, Atticus
Battle Mage: Gorgon, No #2
Curiouskarmadog: Battle Mage, ChronX
Sonicpulsar: Hang 'em High, distad
d3sisted: distad, ChronX
Atticus: Hang 'em High, ChronX
Hang 'em High: Atticus, Gorgon

[Hang 'em High]

First of all, I don't like the name calling that's been going on. I don't think we need to resort to calling people "stupid" or "idiot". Attacking players is part of the game, but let's please keep it somewhat civil.

For reference, I think this is the current vote count:

• Gorgon (1): Battle Mage
  Hang 'em High (2): Sonicpulsar, Gorgon
  Atticus (1): Hang 'em High
  Curiouskarmadog (1): ChronX
  ChronX (1): Curiouskarmadog
  Not Voting (3): distad, Atticus, d3sisted

It's 5 to lynch before deadline, 3 to lynch at deadline.

I'll add my name to the list of people who want to dismiss CKD's offer to sacrifice himself tomorrow if we lynch BM today and he comes up town. @CKD -- I know you're convinced that BM is scum, but I'm not. While I'm not clearing him, I don't think BM is the play today. And whether he is or isn't scum has little bearing on how I view you. I know you're emphasizing how sure you are that BM is scum, but offering to sacrifice yourself doesn't help the town.

I'm really starting to have strong reservations about the mason claim. From the beginning I thought it was too risky a gambit for anyone other than a brash and somewhat reckless scum. However, that description seems to apply to CKD based on his recent play. I'm becoming more convinced he is the type of player to make such an over-the-top gambit. However, I still don't know whether or not I believe the claim and because of that I don't think CKD is the play today either. If we have a cop (who survives) then we might have more information on which to judge the veracity of the claim tomorrow; I think it's better to wait until then before decided the mason question.

I have a lot I want to say about the BM vs. CKD vs. ChronX fight that is going on, but I don't think now is the time. We're close to deadline and in danger of a no lynch; we have more important things to discuss. Since I don't think either BM or CKD are a good play today, I've got to agree with Sonicpulsar.

CKD, BM, quit bickering like school children. It's not good for the game.

All this argument is doing at the moment is distracting us. We're getting close to deadline and I don't think there's enough traction to vote either of you. If neither of you are going to swing today, we should put off this argument until tomorrow. Right now we need focus the discussion on the people who are likely to receive enough votes today. Not that I want to die, but based on the previously compiled top suspects list, the people we should be considering are me, ChronX, Gorgon and Atticus. Based on my previous analysis, my first choice is Atticus followed closely by Gorgon.

@Battle Mage: You've mentioned a couple of times that you were going to do a reread of Atticus. Please do so.

[Hang 'em High]

heh, can you understand why Bm would be afraid to lynch me today, versus tomorrow if we are at lylo?

I don't think it's worth discussing now. We're close to deadline. I'd enter this discussion if I thought you or BM were likely candidates for today's lynch. But I don't think you can generate enough votes against Battle Mage to lynch him and I don't think there are enough votes to lynch you. Nor do I think either of you are the right lynch today anyway. If neither of you are viable lynch candidates today, I think this whole argument is distracting us and should wait until tomorrow. We'll have more information then and we can spend the few remaining hours until deadline looking at people who might actually generate sufficient votes today.

[Hang 'em High]

I really think we need to move on to something more productive, so I'll try again.

I probably need to read Atticus, as i couldnt say a single thing about him atm. lol

ah yes, i have to remember to reread Atticus at some point.

For now, i need to get to reading Atticus, before i decide who my second choice is.

However, i will analyse Atticus before the day ends.

Therefore:

@Battle Mage: You've mentioned a couple of times that you were going to do a reread of Atticus. Please do so.

As I mentioned, the four likely candidates for today's lynch are me, Gorgon, Atticus and ChronX. You've been all over Gorgon and have expressed suspicion of me. You've spoken in favor of ChronX. But you haven't really offered an opinion on Atticus yet. I'd like to hear your take, please.

[Hang 'em High]

Wow, that's a lot of power role claims going around, and this totally changes the discussion. We know we had a doctor. If we believe ChronX, we also have a cop (or possibly a role blocker or a different investigative role) and a tracker. If we believe d3sisted II and Curiouskarmadog we have two masons. I don't think it's reasonable to think we'd have 5 power roles if it was a 9:3 town to scum ratio. Even in a speed game that's too many power roles. I guess we could have 5 power roles if the ratio was 8:4 -- if that's the case we're already in LYLO. I don't think the latter scenario is likely -- therefore, I'm concluding that one of the claimers is lying.

So which is more likely -- a cop/tracker combo or a 2 masons combo? The tracker role is considered an advanced role (according to the Wiki), so I'd think it's a little less likely to be in the game than masons (which are considered basic roles). However, a cop is probably the most common role, so on that basis I'd say they are equally likely. From a game balance standpoint, a cop/tracker combo seems much more powerful than 2 masons. I think if our power roles consist of 2 masons and a doctor we would be seriously underpowered. A trio of doc/cop/tracker seems more balanced considering this is a speed game. If that trio is slightly overpowered, it is possible the scum could have a godfather to balance things out. Overall, on the basis of role likelihood and balance, I tend to think doc/cop/tracker is more likely than doc/2 masons.

Now, I'll consider the individual players. As I stated in my earlier analysis, I've found ChronX to be pretty pro-town. Since then I was starting to have doubts based on some of his recent posts. He kept asking metagame questions that seemed really out of place and I took to be a stalling maneuver designed to distract the town. However, reading back after his claim I'm less concerned about this -- he appears to have been fishing for information that might shed further light on his investigation results. Overall, I still feel good about ChronX.

As for CKD -- at first I strongly suspected the claim was true since it seemed very reckless for a scum to attempt such a gambit. However, his subsequent posts make it clear that he is just the type of player to make such a reckless gambit. At first I wasn't keen on lynching one of the claimed masons today, but ChronX's claim has changed that. I think either ChronX or CKD is lying and we've got to find out which. I believe ChronX is telling the truth, so I'm going to:

Unvote: Atticus

Vote: Curiouskarmadog

[Hang 'em High]

Chronx's case against us (me in particular) is crap, yet HeH sides with him. Lets see, ckd cant be a mason because he is a mason in another game (that was a gem)...you think my claim is false, but let Chronx's claim slide (no one wonders why he dropped it this close to deadline?)

My vote against you has little to do with ChronX's case and everything to do with his claim. We had a doc. You're both claiming in such a way that would give us two more power roles. Since I don't think we can have 5 power roles, one of you is lying. I'm not letting ChronX's claim slide -- I'm not sure which of you to believe. But we need to find out who is lying and I find his claim more believable than yours. Besides, you've told us numerous times that we should lynch you -- so I'm taking you up on the offer.

[Hang 'em High]

why do you think we have a cop AND a tracker?

I can see how my post was confusing in that regard. ChronX's claim makes it clear that whomever he targetted was performing some night action that didn't result in killing. Since the cop is the most common town role, I'm thinking that's who he investigated. But it could be a roleblocker or some other protective or investigative role as well. I did state this earlier in my post:

Wow, that's a lot of power role claims going around, and this totally changes the discussion. We know we had a doctor. If we believe ChronX, we also have a cop (or possibly a role blocker or a different investigative role) and a tracker.

I should have made it clearer throughout my post that the second person could have been a variety of power roles -- sorry for the confusion.

[Hang 'em High]

Chronx-if the guy who you saw hasnt claimed by deadline, please claim who it was.
Guy who targetted me last night-please claim so we can confirm you.

I'm not sure that is wise. On the plus side, this would confirm ChronX's claim. On the down side, if ChronX is telling the truth then we'd be exposing another power role for the scum. I don't know if that's a good trade at this point. As odd as it sounds, I think we can verify ChronX's claim by lynching a mason. If the mason comes back town, that means we have 3 known power roles -- doc & 2 masons. If that happened, then for ChronX's claim to be true we would have had 5 power roles. Since that's not likely, if one of the claimed masons comes back town then I'd have to conclude that ChronX is lying. We're going to have to deal with the mason question today or tomorrow. If we do so today, we'll not only know if the mason claim was legit but we'll also know if ChronX's claim was legit. And we wouldn't have had to reveal a power role to do so.

[Hang 'em High]

My main concern is not confirming Chronx's claim. It is confirming another player, who we can then eliminate from our enquiries.

But if ChronX's is telling the truth we'd be confirming a town power role and revealing it to the mafia. I don't think that helps us.

[Hang 'em High]

If I'm not mistaken, that was the hammer vote. I think we've now got ChronX, me, distad, Battle Mage and Gorgon all voting for Curiouskarmadog. Unless I'm wrong, we should stop discussion until Theo realizes we've lynched.

[Hang 'em High]

We can still discuss before the lynch takes place. Night doesn't fall until the lynch has taken place ... right? I think that's usually the rules.

My apologies, I misunderstood. I thought we were supposed to stop posting after the hammer and didn't want anybody to get in trouble if they didn't realize that the hammer had happened.

[Hang 'em High]

The most important thing atm is to confirm Chronx, for which we need him to claim who he saw.

You're still obv scum, and whether it is a lynch or not, i still want Chronx to return so we can confirm him. This is of the utmost importance. srsly

No, no, no, no, no. The lynch has happened and that isn't going to change. ChronX should NOT claim who he tracked and if anyone targeted Battle Mage they should NOT confirm ChronX's claim. All that will do now is expose a power role to the scum. We can confirm ChronX tomorrow when we can do something about it. Right now confirming ChronX will only help the scum.

[Hang 'em High]

I targeted BM on the second night.

Gorgon, who did you target on the first and third nights?

[Hang 'em High]

I simply want everyone to say yes or no to the question:
Did you target BM on Night 2?

So we're waiting for Sonicpulsar -- he's the only one who hasn't answered BM's question. For reference, here are the other responses:

Yes, I did target BM on the second night: Gorgon & Hang 'em High
No, I did not target BM on the second night: Atticus & distad
BM obviously didn't target himself & ChronX already said he targeted the person who targeted BM.

I'm not quite sure why we're doing this, but I'll play along. So we wait for SP.

[Hang 'em High]

Well, that's everyone. I'm anxious to see what this plan of BM's is. I guess we're waiting for him now.

[Hang 'em High]

I can confirm that I was roleblocked on the first night, which further validates Gorgon's claim. Unfortunately, it's not going to be as cut and dried as BM is hoping. I will make a full claim, but first I want Battle Mage to do so. BM, please reveal your power and the results you received. Once you've done so I'll do the same.

[Hang 'em High]

@ Battle Mage.

Let's claim at the same time. Compose a post that reveals your role, powers, what you did each night and the result of your action. I'll do the same. When you're ready, post a note and we'll pick a time to simultaneously post. That way, our claims cannot be modified based on what the other has said. If either of us fails to post at the agreed upon time they will look inherently scummy. I've got nothing to hide. If you don't either, please agree with this course of action.

[Hang 'em High]

My offer to Battle Mage stands, although I'm leaving now and probably won't have a chance to post again until tomorrow morning.

[Hang 'em High]

lol its ok dude. I've said i have no problem with claiming first. But, the thing that does bother me is not knowing who Chronx actually saw targetting me. Not that it has any impact on my claim itself, but it does have serious impact on what we should do next.

I don't see why ChronX needs to say this before we claim.

[Hang 'em High]

I understand this, because in addition to claiming I also want to include content analyzing the ramifications of my claim. However, I don't see why we can't simply claim first, wait for ChronX to say who he tracked on night 2 and then follow-up with posts that pull all the information together.

[Hang 'em High]

The only deadlock from my point of view is I want Battle Mage to either claim before me or at the same time as I do. I don't want to leave open the possibility he could modify his claim based on what I say. It makes no difference to me when ChronX reveals specifically who he tracked, although it probably makes the most sense for him to wait until BM and I have claimed.

[Hang 'em High]

I think he's waiting for ChronX.

That's what he said, but I don't think the reason he gave for wanting ChronX to go first is compelling.

[Hang 'em High]

My comments are in bold within the quote.

The only condition i am setting is that i am not claiming before Chronx has claimed who he saw on that 1 night. I don't understand his reluctance-it cant possibly have any impact on my claim, as i am hardly under suspicion for targetting myself.

I think ChronX fears his revelation could possibly have an impact on

my

claim. My guess is he fears I'll change my claim based on what he reveals. I won't -- but he doesn't know that.

I dont really have a good reason for this request, except that there is no reason not to, and personally, i would find it very helpful (as would every protown player here).

There

could

be a reason not to, which I mentioned above. If you don't really have a good reason for asking ChronX to post first, then I don't understand why you're holding out. ChronX has said he'll reveal the info after we've claimed so we'll all know then and can thereafter analyze everything. As long as we're telling the truth ChronX's revelation should have no impact on our claims. It will affect our post-claim analysis, but that will be true whether he reveals his information before or after our claims.

We already know that ChronX saw someone, and 2 people have claimed to be that person. I'd like to conclude this so we can move onto the next thing (claims). Plus i'd like an explanation for the strange post Chronx made on the last page.

I agree with this -- I'd like to know what he was getting at.

BM

[Hang 'em High]

My claim, can follow someone each night and see where they go, wasn't used on the night Confused died, followed someone to BM's house on the night Raffles died

Why didn't you use your power on the night =Confused= died?

I AM NOT going to reveal my Raffles-night target nor my activity last night until I see what everyone else has to say.

Can you please clarify why you think this is so important?

[Hang 'em High]

Oops -- cross posted with ChronX. Ignore my second question -- you answered that well. The first question still stands and I'd still like clarification on this:

What a crappy start. Lucky scum bastards ...

Vote: Battle Mage

because he's the only one here whose name I remember seeing in the games I've read.

*cues the Debbie Boone music*

Memories....da da da doo doo dee da....Troubling scumtelly in his first post MEMMMMMMMMM-O-RIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES...of the way...we were.....

[Hang 'em High]

HeH, let me remind you that I wasn't me yet on the night Confused died. Survey Says was doing this job (poorly, or not at all) back then. As best I can determine, SS just didn't bother to use the power.

Ah -- forgot about that. Me shakes fist at SS.

[Hang 'em High]

In my mind the jury is out on just about everyone until we've gotten all the claims out in the open and can compare what people have found. I have a pretty good idea of what we'll find, but we'll have to wait until everyone has claimed before tying it all together with any confidence.

Anyway, thanks for answering. That was a rather uninteresting diversion, but it did keep us busy for a few minutes and answer some minor questions. And now we're back to waiting for Battle Mage. :checks watch:

[Hang 'em High]

I would like to add now that, after my claim, i DO NOT want HeH to claim immediately. I definitely want my answer from Chronx first, because frankly, if he can confirm HeH, there isn't a great deal of point him claiming first, and we might want to change the order.

Can't say I understand why, but I'll hold off until ChronX posts. This assumes ChronX has no problem with me waiting -- if he does then I'll claim before he answers. Basically, it doesn't matter to me either way.

I will be leaving in about 15 minutes and likely won't be checking back until morning. It's my anniversary and I don't think the wife would take too kindly to me playing mafia -- if I tried to I think we'd have a real lynching on our hands.

[Hang 'em High]

ChronX -- after BM and I claim will you then reveal the specifics of who you tracked and where they went each night? Based on BM's last post, I think that assurance is the only thing holding him up at this point.

[Hang 'em High]

I am going to set my own deadline, in 4 and 1/2 hours from this post, for my vote on BM. It is 1030 my time, at 3 my time I am going to vote for him.

You do realize if BM is town (and you are), doing this will likely cost us the game. Of course this assumes we're at LYLO (which is likely) -- one townie vote on another and we lose if the scum are paying attention.

I'm not saying I disagree with you, since I'm finding BM's stalling suspicious. I'm just not sure he's so suspicious it's worth risking a loss. At least make sure he's been on site and active before voting.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: I just noticed that BM is indeed online now. I think it's reasonable to expect him to respond.

[Hang 'em High]

Why would you guys vote when BM is not even on? If he happens to be town the scum can win the game now (unless you're both part of that group). I agree he's stalling -- and putting words in my mouth. He could very well be scum. BUT WE CAN'T TAKE THAT CHANCE. Unvote now and vote again when he's online. But to leave two votes on him when he's not on the site and we're in a likely LYLO situation is reckless.

[Hang 'em High]

I don't like his answers either. I just think two votes at this point is too rash.

@ChronX

. In order to move this along, assuage BM's concerns and put more pressure on him to claim, will you please answer the following?

1. Did you track either me or Gorgon on the night Raffles was killed? You don't have to reveal which one -- but please confirm it was one of the two.

2. Will you claim fully (including all results) once BM and I have done so?

I hate having a vote on BM in a likely LYLO situation. We've got a lot more information at our disposal that hasn't been revealed and I'd like it all out there before voting. If you answer "yes" to both those questions and BM doesn't claim then I'll vote for him as well.

[Hang 'em High]

Thank you both for unvoting -- I think it's the wise thing to do at this point. Now I will say this:

@ Battle Mage: Claim fully now.

Don't wait for ChronX -- I'm not wild about his delays but I think they're more justified than yours. Claim now. If you claim fully and I claim fully and ChronX still withholds information then I'll go after him full throttle. If you don't claim now, I'm going after you full throttle. We

don't

have a lot of time and we're going to have a lot to analyze. We need all the information at our disposal out in the open now. Let's get this done and move on.

[Hang 'em High]

If you don't claim now, I'm going after you full throttle.

EBWOP: If I see that BM is on the site and doesn't claim, then I'm going to vote for him.

[Hang 'em High]

Role: Jack of All Trades

Ability:
several 1-shot powers which can be used at night.

At the start of the game i had:
1 shot Cop Investigation.
1 shot Doc Protection.
1 shot Roleblock.
1 shot NK Immunity.
1 shot Redirect.
1 shot Vig-Kill.

I may have forgotten one, but i think thats it.

Bolded for emphasis.

I'm very curious to hear this answer as well.

Next i want Chronx to claim ONLY who he saw target me on the Night Raffles died. I dont want a full claim-just the bare necessities to allow me to get a grip with where we are.
HeH can claim after, and ONLY AFTER, Chronx has met this request.

@BM

: I don't understand why you want me to hold off. You're conviced ChronX is town and I therefore assume you think he's telling the truth. I can only assume you still have doubts about me. Wouldn't having me claim first be better for the town? From your perspective, wouldn't it be better to have the unknown person (me) reveal first? That way I wouldn't be able to tailor my message in light of what ChronX says. Please explain why you are so adamant ChronX claim first.

@ChronX

: BM wants you to reveal who you targeted night 2 before I claim. I don't really see why, but I'm holding off claiming until I hear from him with an explanation. Would you prefer I claimed first?

By the way, if anyone has any doubts about my claim, i have 1 special breadcrumb up my sleeve. Unfortunately as it is slightly immoral to use it, i'd rather not unless i have to. But just so you know.

I have doubts about your claim. However, if what you have is possibly immoral you shouldn't use it without the mod's approval. I want to win, but I want to win fairly.

[Hang 'em High]

I am curious about BM's explanation for both things he is being asked about right now. Then you and I can have a palaver. Maybe we should make the deal that you spoke of with him, I will post what I know while you post what you know.

I don't think it will be necessary. I actually have my claim written and saved in Word so I can copy & paste it quickly. I have no problem claiming first and I actually think it makes more sense from a town point of view, since it would prevent me from modifying my claim based on what you say. I don't think it works the other way, since I don't see how my claim could change what you say. Unless BM has a good reason I'm not seeing for you to go first, I'll go ahead and claim.

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry for the delay -- work actually expected me to work. Imagine that. Now, as promised, here is my complete claim.

I’m the Cop. The first night (when =Confused= died) I investigated Battle Mage, but my choice was role blocked. I investigated BM again on the second night (when Raffles was killed) and this time he came back innocent. I investigated distad on the third night (when poor d3sisted II died for the second time) and he also came back innocent.

IMPORTANT: NOBODY VOTE!

I know this may be obvious, but I'm not taking any chances. We are likely in LYLO and one townie vote for another gives the scum a chance to quick lynch and defeat us. We've got some time and shouldn't rush to conclusions and lynch somebody without thinking everything through. I've got some ideas about who is scum that aren't what you might expect but I certainly think are valid. I've got to think them through and then I'll post. Obviously everybody should be considering all the angles as well. But I'll repeat:

DON'T VOTE FOR ANYONE YET!

[Hang 'em High]

If you believe all the power role claims it means we have/had the following power roles in the game: Doctor (=Confused=), Cop (me), Mason (Curiouskarmadog), Mason (d3sistedII), Tracker (ChronX), Role Blocker (Gorgon) and Jack-of-all-Trades (Battle Mage). That’s 7 power roles and there’s no way the town has that many – even in a speed game. Since I don’t think we have that many power roles on our side, I can think of 4 explanations: 1) One or more of the power roles are mafia aligned; 2) There is a Godfather to help balance things out; 3) I’m either an insane or naïve Cop; 4) One or more of the claims are false. Obviously more than one of these things is possible (and probable). Now I’m going to look a little closer at everyone.

The following are all dead, so their roles & alignments are obviously confirmed:
=Confused=: Doctor
d3sisted I: Vanilla
Raffles: Vanilla
Curiouskarmadog: Mason
d3sisted II: Mason

Now for the living, claimed power roles.

Hang ‘em High: Cop. I’m proceeding under the premise you believe my claim, although obviously you’ll have to judge for yourself. If you have any doubts about my claim, please raise them and I’ll be happy to answer. As for my sanity, in the Wiki it says: “All variant sanities are uncommon in Mini Games or other situations with just one Cop in the game.” Since we only have one Cop (so it seems), I think I’m probably sane and am proceeding under that assumption.

Gorgon: Role Blocker. Somebody role blocked me the first night, which makes his claim sound valid. The Role Blocker is a common role according to the Wiki, so it seems reasonable it would be in this game. Overall, I see no reason to believe he’s not a Role Blocker. However, according to the Wiki, “The most common Mafia power roles are the Mafia Doctor, the Mafia Cop, and the Mafia Roleblocker (this one also known as Prostitute).” I think there’s a good chance that Gorgon is a filthy whore. As I said above, due to the number of power roles out there, some of them must be mafia aligned in order to balance things out. I think this is most likely one.

ChronX: Tracker. The Tracker is not a common role, so it would be a little surprising (but certainly not out of the question) for one to be in the game. ChronX specifically stated he knew someone targeted BM on night 2. It would have been a real stretch to make such a specific statement unless his claim was true

or he knew in advance who someone was going to target at night

. I think it might be the latter. I don’t think ChronX is the Tracker – I think it’s likely ChronX is the Godfather and Gorgon is one of his scum buddies. He would know Gorgon was going to roleblock BM on night 2 and used that knowledge to claim Tracker, knowing Gorgon could back him up. BM says he investigated ChronX and he came back innocent – but that still fits if ChronX is the Godfather. Of course this whole theory only works if Gorgon is a scum Role Blocker. I have to do a reread to see if ChronX’s and Gorgon’s play fits this theory. If I recall correctly, it was ChronX’s claim that led to the mason lynch, which would explain why he claimed and makes me think this scenario is possible.

Battle Mage: Jack-of-all-Trades. This seems to be a very unusual role to have in a normal mini, so I think it’s also possible BM is the Godfather. He investigated innocent, so if he is scum he’s got to be the GF. Just going from memory I think ChronX’s play fits the GF role better than BM’s, but I’ve got to reread to get a better understanding.

To summarize, I think there are two likely scenarios. Here’s scenario one:

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here’s scenario two:

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
ChronX (Tracker)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

I think either scenario is pretty balanced. Based on what I remember from the game, I’m thinking the first scenario is most likely. I’m now going to reread to see if either fits the past actions and I’m also going to try and come up with other scenarios and assess their likelihood.

Agree? Disagree? Point out any holes in my reasoning. Let’s discuss and figure out how to proceed.

Another possibility just occurred to me – there are two mafias. This would be unusual in a mini, but given the large number of power roles floating around it may be possible. That would put the current count at 3 town, 2 mafia & 2 mafia. I don’t even know if this is reasonable, but I wanted to put it out there for consideration as well.

[Hang 'em High]

My comments are in bold within the quote.

not the strongest claim in the world by a long shot. The odds of having a Tracker and Cop and Jack of All Trades (3 roles with investigative capability) is very slim

I agree. If you look at my last post you'll see I think ChronX (or possibly you) is lying.

, and thats without also having a RB, 2 masons and a Doctor.

Again, I agree. That's why I think the RB isn't on our side at all.

I also find it hard to believe that Distad is town.

I disagree. I've found him to be pro town all along and my investigation backs that up. It is possible he's the Godfather, which I'll consider as I reread -- but that would still give the town a whole lot of power roles.

[Hang 'em High]

Hey... I'll be back on in a little while. I just found out that my company was purchased late last night, so I'm not sure whether I need to get drunk or work on my resume or both.

BRB.

Good luck, distad -- hope it works out O.K. for you.

Back to the game. I want to give some thinking behind my investigation choices. The first night I chose Battle Mage simply because he was the most experienced player and I wanted to know his alignment. I got unlucky when Gorgon roleblocked me.

Going into night 2 I was still suspicious of BM, so I investigated him again. I considered investigating one of the claimed masons, but I really believed the claim since it seemed so unlikely to me that CKD would perform such a risky gambit if he were scum. I also thought if they were telling the truth there was a good chance one would die and I would waste my investigation. So I chose BM again. If you go back and read my posts from the following day, you'll see I dropped a number of hints that I thought BM was town and that we had a Cop on our side.

Going into night 3 the following people were alive: Me, BM, d3sisted II, ChronX, Gorgon, Atticus, Sonicpulsar and distad. I obviously wasn't investigating myself, I had already investigated BM, and d3sisted II was pretty much a confirmed mason after CKD's lynching -- so those three were out. I believed ChronX's claim at the time since I had investigated BM night 2 and he said he tracked someone going to BM's house night 2. At the time I was convinced he was indeed the Tracker (although I've since changed my mind -- see above theory), so I assumed he was town and didn't want to track him. That meant I had to choose between distad, Atticus, SonicPulsar and Gorgon -- and I figured the 3 scum were in that group. Therefore, my goal was to find the innocent one since that would mean the other 3 were scum. I thought distad was the most likely to be innocent, so that's who I chose.

[Hang 'em High]

My last thought to leave the weekend on:

Therefore, my goal was to find the innocent one since that would mean the other 3 were scum. I thought distad was the most likely to be innocent, so that's who I chose.

This sentence should get you hung if we don't discover something else useful. Your goal as cop is to find the scum not the innocents. I think you just outsmarted yourself, pally.

I disagree totally -- I thought I had found a way to catch

all

the scum rather than just one. Here's my quote again with a key phrase emphasized:

Therefore, my goal was to find the innocent one

since that would mean the other 3 were scum

.

When I had to make my choice I was working under the assumption that 3 out of the following 4 were scum: Atticus, SonicPulsar, Gorgon and distad. If that assumption was true, then finding the one innocent among the group would by default identify

all

the scum. That's a better result than finding one guilty and still being unsure about the other 3. In light of recent events I no longer think my assumption was accurate, but at the time I thought it was valid. My strategy was a perfectly valid attempt to identify as many scum as possible.

FYI: As my sig also says, my access on weekends is limited. I should be able to check in, but I can't promise I'll be able to post much if at all.

[Hang 'em High]

Wow -- this game is making my head hurt. I have to spend some more time absorbing all this, but here are a few thoughts at the moment.

I don't like ChronX's unclaim. I thought he was a likely GF before and this certainly doesn't make me think more highly of him. On the surface I don't see why a pro-town player would lie like this. Coupling my previous suspicion with wanting to lynch a liar makes me tempted to vote him now. But since we're likely in LYLO we can't take that chance. I'm going to reread to see if I can believe that a Vanilla Townie would lie like that.

Ugh, sorry BM. I recalled incorrectly. You

did

say you were roleblocked before I said I was a roleblocker. It was only HeH who said he was roleblocked after I said I blocked him. This means that either you're some sort of protown scum role, or your claim is correct. Otherwise there is no way you could have known I blocked you that night, unless you were just guessing wildly, which is an unfair assumption.

While this may be true from your perspective, there's another reason BM would know in advance who you blocked -- you could be scum together. If BM is the GF and you're a Scum RB, he could claim you RBed him and then you could come out and confirm it as a way of making it appear you were both protown power roles. Of course if this scenario were true then you would have RBed somebody else N2; the fact nobody has come forward and said they were RBed then makes it a little less likely.

Right now I'm still leaning toward a Scum trio of ChronX (GF), Gorgon (RB) and either SP or Atticus.

[Hang 'em High]

True, but it also depends on the timing of the claims -- I'll have to look back. I don't know if you had claimed Vanilla yet. If they actually blocked you but executed the gambit I described above where BM claimed he was blocked, they would have risked you coming out and saying you were RBed as well. Not that they couldn't have done this anyway, but it would make it a little riskier and hence somewhat less likely. Of course if you had already claimed Vanilla they would have realized they were safe making such a gambit.

Also, any reason you didn't include SP in this list?

[Hang 'em High]

My comments in bold within the post.

So, is the town going to sit on its hand afraid to vote? Lynch or Lose is an expression for a reason.

Not afraid to vote, but afraid to vote rashly. Obviously we've got to decide before deadline, but the deadline isn't here yet. One townie mistakenly voting for another will cost us the game (assuming we are at LYLO) -- if the scum are all watching they can quicklynch. Once we've all decided on the best candidate then we can vote -- but not before.

Unless the town believes there are only 2 mafia and that we aren't at LyLo yet, in which case, decide whether you should lynch me for my stunt or lynch one of the people I outed making up facts to suit other facts that turned out not to be facts at all or lynch someone else.

Here is a summary:

Thank you for this summary -- it does help. I'm still going to look back to confirm though, since I hardly trust you.

1. ChronX, claimed and since recanted tracker. Never saw anything except the need to lynch a claimed mason.
2. Battlemage, claims to be Jack of ALL Trades, and roleblocked on Night Raffles died.
3. Gorgon, claims to be the visitor I didn't actually see to BM on Night Raffles died. Followup claimed Roleblocker of HeH night confused died, BM on the night Raffles died, and Atticus on the night d3sisted died. Hammered CKD. Regarding the d3sisted I bandwagon, late, he comments that he supports it but "EBWOP: Okay, 5 votes now, so I sure am glad I didn't vote ... "
4. HeH, claims to be another visitor to BM on the night Raffles died. BM must make great pastries. Per claim, Roleblocked Confused night, investigated BM on Raffles night

for the record, he came back innocent

, investigated Distad and got an innocent on D3sisted II night.
5. Distad, vanilla and bummed out about it.
6. Sonic Pulsar, vanilla, while massively breadcrumbing not vanilla.

Can you point out where? I don't recall this offhand (there's a lot going on).

7. Atticus, vanilla.


When BM described his reason for investigating SurveySays, he said that he had an interesting "/in" post.

Here it is:

/in for Spag's game!

Well.


So, LAL me, if you don't believe we are at LyLo.

If you do believe we are at LyLo, and you believe both BM and HeH, then you can't lynch BM, HeH, me or Distad, as all are protown investigators or cleared by an investigator. At LyLo, you can't run about speculating about Godfathers and lynch a townie who has a clear in their favor.

I'm not so sure about this. I think we have to speculate about a GF since it's key to the interaction. I don't know that we want to lynch a GF today, but we need to discuss the possibility.

By the same token, you couldn't really lynch Gorgon, since both investigators claim to have been roleblocked.

So? Just because it seems very likely he is a roleblocker doesn't mean he's a protown RB. I think it's quite likely he's a Scum RB.

That would leave Atticus and SP. Others suspicions of them are well documented.

I lean toward disbelieving BM and Gorgon while being neutral on HeH; he could be in on it, he could be sanity challenged or otherwise not able to get a positive on certain players. If the latter, I'd throw Atticus in as third mafia slightly ahead of SP, although SP and HeH...I still think there is something to that dynamic.

I see Distad as the most protown of all of us.

[Hang 'em High]

I've been rereading and taking notes, so I'm going to make a few posts analyzing things. First, I'll examine ChronX and his fake claim. Why would ChronX fake-claim Tracker? The reason he states is:

I want a mason lynched today so we can establish the alignment of both.

and....

We know we have a dead doc. I know what I am. I am pretty sure there is another pro town investigative role out there. I suppose a game could have doc, tracker, other, and masons, since its speed. But that is among the leading reasons I doubt the mason claim.

His strategy was successful at convincing me. At the time I had the following conversation with CKD:

Chronx's case against us (me in particular) is crap, yet HeH sides with him. Lets see, ckd cant be a mason because he is a mason in another game (that was a gem)...you think my claim is false, but let Chronx's claim slide (no one wonders why he dropped it this close to deadline?)

My vote against you has little to do with ChronX's case and everything to do with his claim. We had a doc. You're both claiming in such a way that would give us two more power roles. Since I don't think we can have 5 power roles, one of you is lying. I'm not letting ChronX's claim slide -- I'm not sure which of you to believe. But we need to find out who is lying and I find his claim more believable than yours. Besides, you've told us numerous times that we should lynch you -- so I'm taking you up on the offer.

I said at the time I thought either CKD or ChronX was lying. We now know CKD wasn't lying and ChronX was. As far as I can tell, the only reason ChronX has given for falsely claiming was because he wanted to verify the mason claim. Up until his fake claim it seemed likely the town was going to pass on lynching a Mason that day. His fake claim tipped the scales for me and it also influenced distad's vote for CKD as well. We now know the Mason claim was true. While it's possible a townie would want to lynch a Mason in order to prove his claim, would he lie to do so? Further, would he lie and make a guess at who was targeted the previous night? You're asking me to believe a Vanilla Townie would want a claimed Mason lynched so badly he was willing to lie and guess about a night target while doing so? I just don't think a Townie would do that. Scum however, would certainly want us to lynch a Mason. ChronX later said:

I thought claiming was a chance to divert the mafia if the masons turned out to be masons. Clearly they thought d3sisted was the better townie to kill, and they would have had no reason to suppose there was still doc protection out there.

I agree -- his claim should have diverted the Mafia from the confirmed Mason. If ChronX was town there would be no reason for the Scum to disbelieve his claim. So that night the Scum would have had to choose between a confirmed Mason (d3sisted II) or a likely Tracker (ChronX). While a confirmed townie is bad for the Scum, a Mason doesn't have any troublesome night abilities. A Tracker, on the other hand, could cause some serious trouble for the Scum. Although it's a little WIFOMy, the fact he survived N2 is another indication to me that ChronX is not pro town.

I also didn't like this.

ME keeping MY word, BM? Where have I said I would reveal all before you claimed?

vote: BattleMage

We're at LYLO and he's voting before any sort of consensus is reached? Bad move.

By the way, I think Battle Mage may have been onto something when he said:

I find it pretty damn impossible that he (ChronX) would not only be a Godfather, but also know who the RB targetted and when. The only possible combo that fits is a Mafia GF-RB pair. Of course, if we mislynch today and see tomorrow, this may become something you should note, but for now, highly unlikely.

As you know by now, this is my #1 theory at the moment. Looking at all this I am finding it increasingly likely that ChronX is Scum. However, Battle Mage claims to have investigated ChronX and says the latter came back innocent. If ChronX is indeed Scum, it means either 1) Battle Mage is lying; 2) ChronX is the Godfather. I think either is possible. I'm going to continue some analysis and also look at potential scum groups. These will all be in future posts.

[Hang 'em High]

Comments in bold

Secondly, after reading the whole BM-ChronX deadlock, I assumed three things:
1) My theory of ChronX/BM scum pair is probably not plausible.

Why not? I think it's possible they are both Scum, but I haven't looked closely at the possibility yet. Please elaborate why you don't think it's plausible.

2) BM is indeed an idiot.
3) One of ChronX, BM, and HeH is scum. ChronX is likely to be that scum. Why? Look no further, but this is constructed while I read, so do excuse me if I repeat others' opinions.

Tracker, as I see it, is an easy to fake role, so long as you know who did what. ChronX claimed to see things only after they were claimed by others, save for, if I recall correctly, when he claimed to have watched Gorgon. As HeH had suggested, it is possible that Gorgon could be a mafia role blocker, in which case they could have easily collaborated to make this claim.

What I don't think:
1) BM is scum. I'm afraid I don't think highly enough of him, that he could have come up with a jack-of-all trades claim.
2) That, as HeH suggested, there are two mafias. There's only been one kill per night.

Agreed. I wasn't thinking clearly.

3) That HeH can

not

be insane/naive. If BM is a one-shot cop (among other things), and if ChronX might be a tracker, HeH may indeed have sanity issues.

In light of recent events, do you still think this is a concern? We now know ChronX is not the tracker and in my mind there's still doubt about BM's claim. I've been somewhat worried about my sanity as well, but given ChronX's unclaim I'm going to proceed as if I were sane.

Well. One of my long held theories is now mostly in ruins; I thought for SURE SonicP was going to counterclaim cop once I saw that HeH had claimed cop. I had deliberately breadcrumbed in the direction of SP, implying at one point that it was he that I had followed, because I wanted other claims to have that essence of doubt about him and what he might claim.

In essence, this is ChronX having hoped that SP would pick up on his lead and counterclaim HeH, making it more likely that HeH could be lynched.

If I picked 3 scum at this point:
SonicPulsar
ChronX
Gorgon

I'm leaning this way as well, although more with ChronX and Gorgon. I'm still not sure who I think could be the third scum -- in my mind it might be SP, you or BM.

These are, however, just my suspicions. But if I needed to vote, I would pick ChronX without hesitation.

[Hang 'em High]

I also didn't like this.

ME keeping MY word, BM? Where have I said I would reveal all before you claimed?

vote: BattleMage

We're at LYLO and he's voting before any sort of consensus is reached? Bad move.

Of course he wasn't the only one doing this...

And now I see you're not even logged in, even though you said you were going to claim.

Claim, already.

Vote: Battle Mage

That was the second vote on BM. And Gorgon admitted he know BM was offline. Very reckless if you're Townie. This, coupled with his "accidental" hammer of CKD, is evidence against Gorgon being on our side as well. In response to those votes, I posted the following that might be prophetic (key part in bold):

Why would you guys vote when BM is not even on? If he happens to be town the scum can win the game now (

unless you're both part of that group

). I agree he's stalling -- and putting words in my mouth. He could very well be scum. BUT WE CAN'T TAKE THAT CHANCE. Unvote now and vote again when he's online. But to leave two votes on him when he's not on the site and we're in a likely LYLO situation is reckless.

[Hang 'em High]

More comments in bold. Sorry for so many posts -- so much stuff to comment on and trying to do so in one post would be too difficult.

Secondly, after reading the whole BM-ChronX deadlock, I assumed three things:
1) My theory of ChronX/BM scum pair is probably not plausible.
2) BM is indeed an idiot.
3) One of ChronX, BM, and HeH is scum. ChronX is likely to be that scum. Why? Look no further, but this is constructed while I read, so do excuse me if I repeat others' opinions.

1. This is correct.
2. This is not only incorrect, but also completely unhelpful.
3. This is improbable. For a start, if i was scum, HeH would have to be scum

No -- you could also be the Godfather

(or a cop with sanity issues-in this case Distad would be scum

No, again. If I was a naive Cop it wouldn't prove anything about distad.

). Gorgon would also almost certainly be scum (because its the only way i would have known that i was RBed).

Probably true -- if you're Scum I think it's likely Gorgon is as well.

Oh and ofc, Chronx would have to be lying, because there is no way that Gorgon would target me at night IF I WAS HIS SCUMBUDDY.

He didn't have to target you, he just had to be willing to

say

he targeted you.

Again, i CANNOT be scum in this game.

Well, since thanks for clearing that up -- I'll happily take your word for it.

It just doesnt work, because BM-scum implicates so many other people who would have to be scum aswell, and if i was scum, the game would already be over. :p
Now remember that i have an innocent investigation on Chronx. It would be VERY unlucky for me to have hit the Mafia GF in my only investigation, so this is a pretty strong case not to lynch Chronx yet.

No it's not. You are just as likely to investigate the Godfather as anyone else. That's not a pretty strong case.

Later he confirmed himself in my eyes, by correctly claiming to track someone to me.

But this doesn't work if ChronX and Gorgon are Scum together.

Now we only have 1 claimed RoleBlocker, so assuming all protown players are telling the truth, we have at most, 1 protown RoleBlocker. Assuming Gorgon is the protown Roleblocker, Chronx-scum would have had no way of knowing that he targetted me, thus Chronx is 100% confirmed town if Gorgon is town.

Probably true. Of course there's a strong chance that Gorgon is

not

protown.

On the flipside, if Gorgon is a Mafia Roleblocker, Chronx can still be protown. So, fighting against those 0.01% odds of Chronx scum, i think we can trust him. Then ofc we have Gorgon, who's claim fits the bill pretty well. The really confusing thing here is that Chronx has to some extent countered Gorgon's action last night, by denying it being the case. Now aside from incredibly unlikely scenarios like flawed-Trackers, i think this could well mean that Chronx was Roleblocked last night. And not necessarily by Gorgon either. It is still possible for us to have a Mafia RoleBlocker and a protown RoleBlocker. We can confirm Gorgon as a RoleBlocker, but him being Mafia RB does kind of fit aswell. I mean, he could have thought that last night, if he blocked Chronx, he might have failed to get a result, and he could safely claim whatever he wanted. A potential slip-up perchance?

Again, i find it hard to believe, but it is a possibility nonetheless. Then we come to HeH, who's claim is highly suspect. He claimed an innocent investigation on me on the 2nd night, yet when i came forward and asked him the next day whether the nights actions had changed his view about me (i thought he was the RB) he said that he still considered me a suspect. When he had an innocent investigation on me?

I was trying to breadcrumb my finding without being too obvious. I also found your play that day (and the previous day) to be very scummy (hence my N2 investigation of you).

Inconsistency ftw! lol
He also claimed an innocent investigation on Distad, which i find very hard to believe. His motives have already been assessed as flawed, but i simply cannot see Distad as protown here. In fact, i think he would be a good lynch today, simply as the 'safe option'. I dont want to take a major gamble lynching a power role who could end upto be a mafia power role if we are incredibly lucky. Rather i find it better to lynch someone who has acted scummy throughout the game, and now is nearly guaranteed to be scum irrespective of the other members. The only thing in Distads favour is that his claim is one of the most reasonable in the game. He didnt claim another power role which is good, but then, it would be VERY foolish to under-estimate Distad's intelligence. He's a strong player, and i'm sure he could have realised that another power role claim could land him in alot of bother. I dont like the way he tried to half-softclaim vanilla early on either in an attempt to increase the validity of his claim. His pushing of ridiculous ideas today is perhaps a sign of panic.

I do not see the case against distad at all. Please elaborate or point me to posts where you have outlined your case against him.

Then we have SonicPulsar and Atticus. Both claimed Vanilla, both could be scum. Neither of them have given off strong scum vibes, and thus, i think we should leave both alone for today at least. Of course we will need to look at them at some point, but for now there are better options. Of the two, SonicPulsar looks way more protown to me.

Why?

So that leaves us with HeH and Distad. If Distad is scum, HeH is also scum, so we can kill 2 birds with 1 stone today if we lynch him.

Again, why do you think this. You're making a lot of statements without backing them up.

Equally if HeH is scum, we can say with some assurity that Distad is also scum. Hence i reccommend one of these 2 as today's lynch.

BM

[Hang 'em High]

Modified in light of new info and to add a third possible scenario. The third scenario seems a bit unbalanced in favor of the Mafia (considering it's a speed game). I still have work to do. I want to reread considering each of the below to see if they make sense. I also need to consider other possible scum groups as well. Right now I'm leaning toward the first scenario below.

To summarize, I think there are

two

three likely scenarios. Here’s scenario one:

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here’s scenario two:

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
ChronX (

Tracker

Vanilla)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here’s scenario three:

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
distad (Vanilla)
Atticus (Vanilla)
Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)
ChronX (Goon)

[Hang 'em High]

Oh yeah, and that HeH is hypocritical for not voting Gorgon when his analysis points solely in that direction.

That is asinine. I'm not voting for Gorgon because we're in LYLO and if I'm wrong we could lose. Due to the severity of voting incorrectly, I'm not ready to commit to anyone just yet. He's my #1 candidate at the moment and there's a good chance I'll vote for him. But I want to think everything through first so I don't give the scum a chance to quicklynch. How is that hypocritical?

One other note. I've been assuming there is a Godfather in the game. If there is not, then this is easy. We've got 5 dead townies. I make 6 and I've got an innocent on BM and distad, which makes 8. BM has an innocent on ChronX, which makes 9 townies. That leaves Gorgon, Atticus and Sonicpulsar as the Scum. However, I don't think that is the case. That arrangement would give us 5 power roles -- Cop, Doc, 2 Masons and JoAT -- versus scum with only 1 power role -- Roleblocker. That seems too unbalanced in favor of the town, even for a speed game. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely we have a Godfather in the game.

[Hang 'em High]

Thanks for posting this, SP -- solid contribution. Now I'm going to see if I agree with you or not. My comments are in bold.

In light of recent revelations, I'll make another person by person analysis.

To start off, I'm a bit dumbfounded by Chronx's play.

Me, too.

I legitimately thought he was telling the truth and HeH was probably lying. I no longer think this is the case. I'm usually one of the first to say LAL but in this case, I'm just not sure.

Thus, this leads to whether or not I believe HeH's claim. I do. This implies that his investigations are legit, which should clear BM and/or Distad unless one is a godfather or perhaps HeH is an insane or naive cop. All are unlikely, but one of them has to be true. Why? Under the assumption that there are 3 mafia, if Chronx, HeH, Distad and BM are all innocent, that'd leave me as guilty.

To further complicate things, I honestly believe Gorgon's claim of roleblocker.

I believe his claim as well.

While we're on that, I'm finding it unlikely that the scum got BOTH a Godfather AND a mafia roleblocker.

This I don't agree with. If we had a Doc, Cop, 2 Masons and a JoAT, I can see the scum having a GF and a RB. Do you think such a setup would be balanced? I think this is a really key point so I'd really like your feedback. I think it's clear Gorgon is a RB but the questions remains whether he's protown or scum.

I'm far more inclined to believe there's a godfather. In fact, I'm going to make this a major assumption and build most of my analysis on this fact. Anyways, on with the analysis.

I'm forced to figure out which of the four are most likely scum. It's easiest to start with figuring out how many of those 4 must scum.

Assumptions I'm assuming are correct and not changeable:

Sonicpulsar - Vanilla townie
Gorgon - Town Roleblocker

Obviously I disagree, but I'll go with it for now.

Atticus - Scum

Why is this a given?

Thus, I'm left with determining which of the remaining 4 are linked together.

Scenario 1:
HeH - Sane town cop. Leads to:

BM/Distad - One is godfather, the other townie.

If distad is the GF that means BM is town (since I investigated both and they came back innocent). If BM is town then ChronX can't be regular scum since BM investigated ChronX and he came back innocent. Therefore, if distad is the GF then ChronX can't be regular scum. It is possible for ChronX to be regular scum if BM is the GF, since we then wouldn't believe BM's investigation.

Chronx - Scum.

Conclusion: Likely.

This would give the town the following roles: Doc, Cop, 2 Masons, RB and 4 Vanillas. The scum would have GF and 2 Goons. In my opinion this seems unbalanced in favor of the town. Thoughts?

Scenario 2:
HeH - Lying scum. Leads to:

BM - Townie
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Townie

Well, I'm more likely to believe BM's role claim if HeH is lying. There being no investigative role seems highly unlikely. Also, I'd guess HeH was trying to clear Distad by claiming him innocent.

Conclusion: Unlikely. I just don't see HeH lying about being the cop.

Scenario 3:
HeH - Insane/naive Cop

BM - Scum
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Town

This one frustrates me a bit because it seems unlikely, but it'd clear up a few issues I'm having with Scenario 1. Namely, I'm undecided on BM and Distad.

If I'm naive we can't read anything about my investigations since everybody would come back innocent regardless of alignment. If I'm insane then both BM and distad are scum. I don't think we'd know ChronX's alignment in that case. However, I'm going to discount the possibility I'm insane or naive based on this quote from the Wiki: "All variant sanities are uncommon in Mini Games or other situations with just one Cop in the game."

Conclusion: Unlikely. But perhaps more likely than Scenario 2.

Given my initial assumptions, is there anything wrong with my 3 scenarios? Am I missing anything? This day really is hurting my head. So many thing imply so much.

For those paying attention, I've had this window open for ~7.5 hours. It's taken me a while to get here with tons of distractions but it's here nonetheless.

The more I look at this the more I can't envision a scenario where Gorgon is on our side. I believe he's the RB and having an RB on our side gives the town too many power roles and the scum too few. I'm going to look some more to see if I can find a scenario that fits Gorgon being on our side, but for now I'm going to

HoS: Gorgon

.

[Hang 'em High]

All the scenarios I've been considering include the assumption Gorgon is a scum Roleblocker. I'm now going to try and determine if there is an alternative wherein he is town. First, regardless of his alignment I believe his claim. He said he blocked me night 1 and I was indeed blocked. I don't see how he could have claimed this if he wasn't telling the truth. If he's town, that means we've got:

Doc (=Confused=), 2 Vanillas (Raffles & d3sisted I), 2 Masons (curiouskarmadog & d3sisted II), Cop (me) & Roleblocker (Gorgon). That leaves 3 scum among the following: Sonicpulsar (claimed Vanilla), Atticus (claimed Vanilla), distad (claimed Vanilla, investigated innocent by me), ChronX (claimed Vanilla, investigated innocent by BM) and Battle Mage (claimed JoAT, investigated innocent by me).

Scenario 1. If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town. Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF. This brings us to:

Scenario 2. If BM is the Godfather it means distad is innocent and the two other scum come from ChronX, SP and Atticus. This would give the town 5 power roles (Doc, Cop, 2 Masons & RB) versus a GF and 2 Goons. This seems slightly unbalanced in favor of the town, but it's not entirely unreasonable considering it's a speed game starting at night. It also eliminates the bizarre JoAT role which has always struck me as unlikely in a mini. Overall I think this is a likely scenario. I know I've been hammering hard on Gorgon today, but looking at it this way gives me doubts.

After looking at this every way I know how, in my mind I've narrowed it down to two possibilities.

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

or

=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Gorgon (Roleblocker)
distad (Vanilla)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

There are other scenarios wherein Gorgon could be scum, but the one above seems most likely. Anyway, looking at the two above possibilities, I'd say the second is the more likely setup. It doesn't have any unusual roles, seems fairly balanced and fits the overall play in my opinion.

Now the big question -- who to vote for. I'm going for ChronX. In the first scenario he is the GF. In the second scenario there is a 2/3 chance he is scum. As an added benefit, if he does come back generic scum we'll know BM was lying about his investigation and can safely lynch him tomorrow.

Vote: ChronX

[Hang 'em High]

Wow -- talk about cross-posting. I started composing my previous post after reading post 932. I'll address everything posted after that now if necessary.

[Hang 'em High]

I guess i was just surprised at you not voting, when your analysis indicated CERTAINTY that Gorgon was scum.

You're right -- my previous analysis was all based on the belief Gorgon was scum and based on that it's reasonable you would call me out for not voting. However, I realized I hadn't looked at the alternatives, which is what I did in my last post. I'm glad I did so, because now I'm not so sure Gorgon is scum. He might be, but there are reasonable alternatives.

[Hang 'em High]

I think we have 25.5 hours until deadline -- is this correct? I believe we need 4 to lynch before deadline and 3 to lynch at deadline.

I'm happy with my vote, but that's the second vote on ChronX so if we're wrong we're in danger of a quicklynch. Anybody have any serious objections?

[Hang 'em High]

Damn! I just realized this can't be true:

=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Gorgon (Roleblocker)
distad (Vanilla)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

because....

Ugh, sorry BM. I recalled incorrectly. You

did

say you were roleblocked before I said I was a roleblocker. It was only HeH who said he was roleblocked after I said I blocked him. This means that either you're some sort of protown scum role, or your claim is correct. Otherwise there is no way you could have known I blocked you that night, unless you were just guessing wildly, which is an unfair assumption.

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role. This means the scenario above is not likely, which means I'm back to thinking Gorgon has to be scum -- I just don't see any scenario where he could be otherwise. My most likely scum trio is ChronX (Godfather), Gorgon (Roleblocker) and either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon). This game is going to make my head explode. For now:

Unvote: ChronX

HoS: Gorgon

Am I missing something with this analysis?

[Hang 'em High]

I realize I need to clarify my last post a little. In one post I come up with this -- the key part is underlined:

If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town.

Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF

.

In a later post I realize this (key part again underlined):

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well

. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role.

Since this is obviously a contradiction I can only conclude my logic is faulty (I don't think so, but correct me if I'm wrong) or my premise in incorrect. My premise was: "If Gorgon is town". I think that's wrong -- there is no way Gorgon is town. My vote is going there unless somebody can point out a flaw in my logic.

[Hang 'em High]

Since I've been thinking out loud a lot and posting way too much stuff -- I'm going to try and summarize my beliefs and save everybody the trouble of trying to decipher my many posts. Here is an overview of my current thoughts.

I'm pretty sure there is a Godfather. Here is my argument:

I've been assuming there is a Godfather in the game. If there is not, then this is easy. We've got 5 dead townies. I make 6 and I've got an innocent on BM and distad, which makes 8. BM has an innocent on ChronX, which makes 9 townies. That leaves Gorgon, Atticus and Sonicpulsar as the Scum. However, I don't think that is the case. That arrangement would give us 5 power roles -- Cop, Doc, 2 Masons and JoAT -- versus scum with only 1 power role -- Roleblocker. That seems too unbalanced in favor of the town, even for a speed game. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely we have a Godfather in the game.

I'm also pretty sure Gorgon is a Scum Roleblocker. Here is my argument:

All the scenarios I've been considering include the assumption Gorgon is a scum Roleblocker. I'm now going to try and determine if there is an alternative wherein he is town. First, regardless of his alignment I believe his claim. He said he blocked me night 1 and I was indeed blocked. I don't see how he could have claimed this if he wasn't telling the truth.

I realize I need to clarify my last post a little. In one post I come up with this -- the key part is underlined:

If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town.

Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF

.

In a later post I realize this (key part again underlined):

If Gorgon is town then BM almost has to be town as well

. The only way BM could have known he was RBed was if he was a power role or he and Gorgon were scum together running a gambit. Since in this scenario Gorgon is town, it means BM has to have a power role with a night action. The only night action the GF would have is killing, and since a kill happened it seems logical that if Gorgon is town then BM is a protown power role.

Since this is obviously a contradiction I can only conclude my logic is faulty (I don't think so, but correct me if I'm wrong) or my premise in incorrect. My premise was: "If Gorgon is town". I think that's wrong -- there is no way Gorgon is town.

Based on those assumptions, I see the following possible scenarios based on who the GF could be:

Here’s scenario one (ChronX is the GF and BM and distad are innocent based on my investigations):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here’s scenario two (BM is the GF and distad is innocent based on my investigation):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
distad (Vanilla)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

Here's scenario three (distad is the GF and BM and ChronX are innocent based on my investigation):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
ChronX (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
distad (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

Here's scenario four (Atticus or SP are the GF and BM, ChronX & distad are innocent based on my and BM's investigations):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
ChronX (Vanilla)
distad (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

I know I've talked myself in circles throughout this, so I hope I'm not missing something. Do you buy my first two assumptions: 1) there is a GF and 2) Gorgon is scum RB?

[Hang 'em High]

I buy that there is a Godfather. I, too, believe Gorgon's claim. There is a 4th alternative that you are not mentioning.

You could be scum with a given cop fake-claim. We have taken the assumption that you are town because no one else has claimed cop and "surely" there would be a cop in the game -- it is among the most basic roles. However, this is a theme game, and I can very much accept the possibility that you were told in your pm that there are no cops, to be used specifically as a safe-claim. It would be a very powerful tool and would easily balance the town power roles.

2 masons, JoaT, RB vs Godfather, 2 Goons with cop safe-claim.

Well, you can hardly expect me to try and convince people I'm scum. Obviously I can't prove the validity of my claim -- you'll have to judge that for yourself. While I think you

could

conclude there is no Cop in the game, doesn't it seem unlikely this is the case? I just think one of the scenarios I mentioned is much more likely. And I think it's a real stretch to think there's a scum role who was told there would be no Cop. Is it

possible

? I suppose. But it's kind of far fetched, IMO. When in doubt, look to Occam's razor.

You said you buy that there is a GF and you believe Gorgon's claim. For a second assume you also believe my claim. In that case, does my logic that Gorgon is scum hold up?

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

Fair enough. The only games I've been in here are a normal mini and a newbie game. Since I don't have experience in theme games, it's hard for me to speak confidently about what might or might not be included. I'll just say that the stated theme of the game was speed -- which doesn't necessarily mean there can't be other strange things as well. Other than that, I don't know what else I can do to convince you my claim is legitimate. If you have specific doubts please raise them and I'll happily answer.

Now I'm going to revisit my four scenarios and rank them by likelihood.

Scenario 1: ChronX GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus or SP Goon. Gives the town 5 power roles and the scum 2 power roles. Seems balanced and everybody's play seems to fit. Also could explain ChronX's fake claim since he would know Gorgon targeted BM. Conclusion: Good chance.

Scenario 2: BM GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus, SP or ChronX Goon. Gives the town 4 power roles and the scum 2. Seems to favor the scum too much. Conclusion: Unlikely.

Scenario 3: distad GF, Gorgon RB and either Atticus or SP Goon. 5 town power roles and 2 for the scum. Seems balanced. Makes ChronX's fake claim less likely since he would have had to guess that someone targeted BM. Conclusion: Possible but not at the top of the list.

Scenario 4: Atticus/SP are GF/Goon and Gorgon is RB. 5 town power roles and 2 scum power roles. Seems balanced. Makes ChronX's fake claim less likely. Conclusion: Possible.

If I had to rank them by likelihood it would go #1, #4, #3 and #2. Meaning I think the Godfather is most likely to be ChronX. Still, the one constant in all of this is my conviction that Gorgon is Scum. Therefore I'm going to:

Vote: Gorgon

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - I just finished a game where the serial killer was told that there were multiple cops in the game so that he could use it as a safe claim.

Occam's razor is great... unless it's a theme game where anything really could go.

I do think your logic of Gorgon holds up, though, assuming that no one (other than ChronX) has been misleading.

do tell (for the newbs like me) what Occam's razor is while i await a reply to my question.

Basically it means the most simple explanation is the most likely to be true.

[Hang 'em High]

Hey... I'll be back on in a little while. I just found out that my company was purchased late last night, so I'm not sure whether I need to get drunk or work on my resume or both.

BRB.

I've been meaning to ask how this went. Hope your job is O.K. (or you at least got a great buyout).

[Hang 'em High]

Obviously I'm convinced Gorgon is the right choice today for reasons outlined previously. If it's necessary to avoid a no lynch I would be willing switch my vote to ChronX. I think there's a good chance he is scum and his lynch has an added benefit. If he turns up to be a plain Goon then we can safely assume Battle Mage is the Godfather. BM says he investigated ChronX and got an innocent. This wouldn't be true if ChronX was a regular Goon (as opposed to the GF). If BM was lying about his investigation on Gorgon I would assume he is scum and since I've gotten an innocent investigation on BM it would have to make him the GFer. I think there's a good chance either SP or Atticus is scum, but in my mind it's a coin flip between the two of them so I don't think it's wise to lynch either yet when it could cost us the game.

[Hang 'em High]

We've got just under 4 hours left and we need 3 votes on someone to avoid a no lynch. Right now nobody is there. If we no lynch we probably lose so we've got to make a decision. In an effort to reach consensus, can everybody please list who they are willing to vote for? For me that's Gorgon first and then ChronX.

[Hang 'em High]

Wow -- go out for a meeting and come back to this. Since I really am town, unless there was a bussing (which seems unlikely) I'm sure ChronX is town. It seems pretty likely that SP, BM and Gorgon are the scum due to how quickly their votes followed one another. Looks like this is the deal:

Here’s scenario two (BM is the GF and distad is innocent based on my investigation):

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
distad (Vanilla)

Two of

Atticus

, Sonicpulsar or

and ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
Battle Mage (Godfather)

One of Atticus,

Sonicpulsar

or ChronX

(Goon)

[Hang 'em High]

Yesterday there was this whole concert thing, but I'm feeling the ChronX vote unless a quick read shows differently.

Nice to see you're on top of things. The deadlined passed 40+ minutes ago and the lynch already occured anyway.

[Hang 'em High]

Great game, Scum -- you smoked us. After all the back and forth I was truly convinced Gorgon was a Scum RBer -- too bad I couldn't convince the rest of the town. I was surprised distad turned out to be the GFer. I had him on my list but I always thought it was more likely ChronX was the top bad guy. His fake claim hurt us.

This was my first game; I started two other games around the same time but they're still ongoing and this moved much faster. I found it enjoyable (except for the excruciating death part) -- thanks to all, in particular theo for bailing us out. Any thoughts you have on my play (both good and bad) would be appreciated. I'm always on the lookout for ways to improve. Congratulations again to the evil geniuses distad, Gorgon and Sonicpulsar.

[Hang 'em High]

ckd ...

1) Coming out to protect Mr.PiGG was a close call, but I think it was the right thing to do. No sense in lynching a mason without a claim.

2) Maybe, maybe not. The main reason we kept you alive was that we were certain that ChronX would go after you ... the plan was to get ChronX lynched because of his insistence in lynching a claimed mason. That statement of yours played some part in keeping you suspicious, but I'm not sure if it was the deciding factor. I was dismayed to see that this plan didn't seem to be working at the start of the day, but things really turned around. Your argument with BM was what I think was most destructive for the town on that day, although I'm not sure who's more to blame for this.

Although the argument was clearly distracting, I think our biggest problem that day was ChronX's fake claim. It was his claim that convinced me to lynch CKD since I didn't think both his and CKD's claim could be true.

[Hang 'em High]

By the way, what exactly is the Mugger role. I think I understand but I'm not exactly sure. It's not listed in the Wiki.

[Hang 'em High]

I was thinking about this game over the weekend -- particularly the lynch choices.

Lynch 1: d3sisted. Day 1 is tough since there is so little to go on -- no voting patterns, etc. Plus for a successful lynch it takes 6 of the 8 townies to agree. So unless the scum slip up it's pretty hard to nail one with the first lynch. Looking back I still think we made the right call at the time, even though it didn't work out. It was close to deadline and d3sisted just disappeared from here when he was put under pressure even though he was posting in other games. It seemed to me he was using his upcoming vacation as an excuse to not post, hoping we would spare him from the lynch. That seemed scummy to me and made him the best candidate based on the little information we had.

Lynch 2: Curiouskarmadog. At first I believed his Mason claim because it seemed like a really reckless gambit to expose both himself and Mr.PiGG if they were scum. But then CKD starting playing kind of crazy, making some aggressive, over-the-top posts. It made me wonder if he was the sort of player to make such a reckless play. And then ChronX made his Tracker claim and described following someone to Battle Mage's house. Since this is exactly what I did, I believed ChronX's claim. Based on this it seemed clear there was a Cop (me), Doc (already killed), Role Blocker (since I had been RBed the first night) and a Tracker. At the time I thought they were all on the town side (obviously that was wrong) and didn't think we would also have 2 Masons on our side. Therefore, coupling this with CKD's reckless play led me to conclude the Mason claim was a lie. That's why I went along with the lynch. ChronX's false claim is what put me over the edge and I think it was a bad play for the town. I also think I put too much stock into the likely setup of the game, which led me to erroneous conclusions.

Lynch 3: ChronX. I didn't vote for him, although I did think there was a good chance he was the GFer. I wish I had done a more effective job of arguing for Gorgon's lynch. By this point I was convinced he was Scum -- and I was right. I just didn't pursuade the rest of the town effectively. I don't know if we would have won even if we had lynched Gorgon here, but we would have still had a chance. If we had lynched him I'm sure I would have been NKed, leaving Battle Mage, ChronX and Atticus versus distad and SonicPulsar. We'd still likely have lost, since I think ChronX would have been the most likely choice for lynching the next day.

For my first game I was pretty satisfied with the way I played, despite the outcome. We made a few mistakes and the Scum played a strong game. Congrats again to distad, SonicPulsar and Gorgon. It was a fun game and I hope to see everyone in future games.