Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[Gorgon]

This struck me as odd. How do you know Raffles is an experienced player and a good scumhunter? Have you been in a game with him before?

No, I haven't been in a game with him before, but I look through old games and metagame extensively ... and I especially metagame the people I'm playing with. Also, as I've said before, the join date alone is enough to tell you how experienced someone is, along with the post count. I remember having seen Raffles before he joined this game, and now I have seen more of his games. However, d3sisted is admittedly less experienced when one counts the time he has been on this site, but he has a prolific number of game posts behind him, and a good track record.

I see BM's point about being careful about using the words of an NK'd player though - I suppose it is true that Raffles could have been NK'd because he was wrong about things, rather than him having been seen as a threat.

[Hang 'em High]

I was starting to look at the 7 living, unclaimed players when the following post caught my eye.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

Battle Mage, can you please call out the posts that make you think they're innocent? "Totally beyond suspicion" is pretty strong -- are you really that sure? I ask this because these three are on the following list:

I think our best bet is to focus on the 7 living, unclaimed players. That's Battle Mage, Hang 'em High, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon, ChronX, Atticus and distad.

If we believe the mason claim, then 3 of those 7 are scum (assuming there are 3 scum, which I think is likely). If the three you name are indeed innocent that only leaves four possibilities -- two of whom are you and me. I know I'm innocent and if we assume for a second you are as well, then the math doesn't work as it only leaves Gorgon and Atticus. Therefore, one of our assumptions is wrong, which means at least one of the following: A) There are only two scum; B) The mason claim is bogus; C) At least one of the three you name are scum; D) You're scum; E) I'm scum.

I don't think A) is likely; a 10:2 town to scum ratio would be too unbalanced. While I tend to think the mason claim is legitimate, B) is certainly a possibility. I don't know how to judge C), which is the reason for my question above. If D) is true, then all this speculation is moot since your list of innocents can't be believed. I know E) is not the case, although obviously you don't.

I'm writing off A) and E) as possibilities, and since I think you're likely town I'm writing off D) as well (for now, at least). That means that I think either the mason claim is a lie or at least one of the three on your list is actually scum. Since I tend to think the mason claim is true, I'm guessing that someone on your list is scum. But if you've got a solid argument for why they're town I'd reassess the likelihood that the mason claim is bogus.

[distad]

I agree with BM that if a cop can nail one of the two of them as scum that it would behoove the town to know it, but if a cop can identify one as town, I don't think it would be as beneficial to claim this early. Losing a claimed mason (and confirming the other) is much better than confirming the two masons and losing a cop to an NK, IMHO.

Interesting, as I said before. I can not quote PMs..but we are both town and we both know each other as town. So if one of us is scum or town so is the other. You will just have to take my word on this. I do not think the cop should come out yet, unless someone is about to be lynched that he knows to be pro town…or he has a scum hit.

I'm not trying to get you to quote your pm. As much as I'd like proof, I do respect the mod's rules. What I'm trying to get at is HOW you both know each other as town. If there's a way to say it without quoting the pm, were you told that the both of you are town (specifically as opposed to inferred)?

Really what I'm getting at is, despite your being town-mason (which I believe, even in a town/scum mason pair), is it possible that PiGG is still scum? Because until your claim saved him, I had him pegged as dead-to-rights scum.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP -- continuing the thoughts from my previous post.

If you believe Battle Mage's innocent list (distad, ChronX and SonicPulsar), it makes one of Gorgon and Atticus scum -- and very likely both. Right now I'm leaning toward one of two possibilities:

1) The mason claim is bogus and BM's innocent list is accurate. This would mean the scum are CKD, Mr.PiGG and either Gorgon or Atticus.

2) The mason claim is legitimate and one of BM's innocent list is inaccurate. In this case the scum are Gorgon, Atticus and one of distad, ChronX and Sonicpulsar).

Both of these scenarios work off the assumption that both Battle Mage and I are innocent, which I think is the case. Well, I know I am innocent and I'm leaning that way for BM as well. And it also relies heavily on Battle Mage's innocent list. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'd like to hear his reasons for listing those three. He was very sure based on his language.

[curiouskarmadog]

I'm not trying to get you to quote your pm. As much as I'd like proof, I do respect the mod's rules. What I'm trying to get at is HOW you both know each other as town. If there's a way to say it without quoting the pm, were you told that the both of you are town (specifically as opposed to inferred)?

Really what I'm getting at is, despite your being town-mason (which I believe, even in a town/scum mason pair), is it possible that PiGG is still scum? Because until your claim saved him, I had him pegged as dead-to-rights scum.

PMing Mod to ask what I can say..

[Gorgon]

HeH - what's your case for saying BM is innocent?

[ChronX]

I am openminded to considering a new candidate for today's lynch. But, we shouldn't dismiss the following argument from mind:

1. The claimed masons didn't die.
2. If one of the claimed masons were a godfather with invisibility to cop investigation (GF's usually appear town to a cop), claiming mason when either the GF was on the block, or if as GF one of your goons is on the block.

The fact is we were going to lynch Pigg yesterday. This would have put the town waking up the morning at 7-2, with unexposed power roles. If Pigg were in fact a good, and CKD the GF, the claim is brilliant...it puts the mafia at 6-3, and if we mislynch today, hastens us to lylo much sooner. A cop would almost certainly investigate one of the 2, so the claim also gives a 50/50 chance of a town result on one of the claimers...which could result in an overenthusiastic cop blurting out.

Personally, I do not think this scenario requires great leaps to find somewhat likely. Others will say it is, but any reasonably experienced player would be able to come up with this plan. I've played as a baddie with a chance for being seen as town by scan and begged for scanning myself. If you scan pro-town, you infiltrate the thinking of the town.

As I started this post, however, unless we have a cop or watcher or someone with a definite scum ID, I think we do need to consider all suspects today, including the claimed masons but with light emphasis on them.

If we have a power role with pro-town results, I do NOT think it is worth the risk to expose yourself with a pro town result versus certain death tonight.

[ChronX]

Wow, a lot got posted while I was typing that...stupid work interfering with game.

Right now, with or without a judgement on the mason claim, HeH is saying way too often how town he is. I also find his 2 posts above to be a lot of restating of theories any of us can figure out on our own, without coming to much conclusion. Sort of one of those classic, appearing to be helpful deals.

FoS Hang em High

[curiouskarmadog]

you sound really open minded...instead of believing that we have two town masons on our side during a speed game...

you would like the town to consider a godfather/townie mason combo in a speed game that claimed Day 1..granted it is possible, but which is more likely?

Also as I stated, we both know each other's alignment (if Pigg was f-ing around he could confirm at least that). I dont have that much knowledge of masons, but if we didnt know each other's alignment, why would the mod state that we do in the PM?

playing devil's advocate here..lets say I was scum and Pigg is town. Who do you think my other scum partner(s) is/are?

[ChronX]

EBWOP

By the way, I think that if the claim is true, both are indeed town. This game's theme was speed, and gave no hint there would be other flavor. Usually, "masons" are both protown. "Brothers" are usually used when one is town and one is scum, and usually each dies if the other dies. The way this game was set up, I doubt that there are any exotic twists on roles using standard terminology. Also, considering the trouble SPAG went through to get approved to mod this game, I would bet it was pretty close to formulaic, from a consideration of balance. So I would expect 9-3 with a classic distribution of power roles...i.e. I wouldn't expect a heavy portion of the town to have power roles. We already know we had a doc, so if there are masons, that might be it.

[ChronX]

you sound really open minded...instead of believing that we have two town masons on our side during a speed game...

you would like the town to consider a godfather/townie mason combo in a speed game that claimed Day 1..granted it is possible, but which is more likely?

Also as I stated, we both know each other's alignment (if Pigg was f-ing around he could confirm at least that). I dont have that much knowledge of masons, but if we didnt know each other's alignment, why would the mod state that we do in the PM?

playing devil's advocate here..lets say I was scum and Pigg is town. Who do you think my other scum partner(s) is/are?

I am NOT suggesting a blend of townie and scum in the pair. IMO, EITHER of these must be the case: you are both town, masons who know each others alignment OR you fabricated your claim, both of you are scum. If you pulled off the latter, kudos.

Based on your recent posts, I am starting to buy into the legitimacy of your claim. It would take HUGE balls to fake a claim and also fake a PM to the GM asking for clarification on how you can legally paraphrase you role PM.

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - what's your case for saying BM is innocent?

I don't know that he's innocent. I've gotten a good vibe from him but I don't have anything specific that makes me want to clear him. For now I'm working under the assumption that he is town because it makes analysing his innocent list potentially worthwhile. If BM is scum, then all the analysis I did in my recent posts was pointless (which I recognize is a possibility and I don't want to overlook that). However, if he is town and he has good reasoning behind his innocent list then I think it can narrow our focus considerably.

HeH is saying way too often how town he is.

I did so because much of my theory only works if I'm town and I wanted to make it clear that I understood that limitation.

[ChronX]

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

This post bothers me.

@Sonicpulsar: Who are your top 2 suspects now and why?

Reading = done. What I wouldn't give to be a day-vig.

@ Atticus: Do you still feel this way? Do you care to be more specific in light of further developments since you said it? You have contributed in a unique way to this game but have remained somewhat non-committal. And you replaced the exclamation-point abuser.

[Hang 'em High]

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

This post bothers me.

Why?

[ChronX]

I tend to be suspicious of these happy horseshit kind of posts. He even comments that the dead included someone not posting much anyways....wasn't he on the candidate list for potential scummy lurkers, just yesterday? Maybe we've gotten through to him and he is opting instead for contentless activity...ie lurking in plain site.

The reason lurking is bad is that it protects scum from saying anything or making analysis that can be used against them. If SP comes back with something thoughtful, that first post won't bother me so much.

[Battle Mage]

Don’t know how I feel about a cop claim quite yet. The cop has had two nights to investigate, that information would be very helpful. But I do not want to lose the cop yet. Hopefully if we get ready to mislynch a townie that he knows is innocent he will come forth, but whether he should come out before then…I don’t know.

I think, if the cop can either prove or disprove the mason-claim, he should come forward. Obviously if he cant, he should stay hidden until he can. Of course, it would mean losing the Cop, but, in killing the Cop, the scum would clear 2 people from our suspect list. I think its worth it.

@Chronx-lol i was kind of thinking along the same lines of your post, but with regard to Gorgon, rather than Sonic.

BM

[ChronX]

BM, I just wanted to point out that the cop can't definitively clear ckd AND Pigg until BOTH have been investigated. A "town" result on only one could be a false indication on a godfather. Some players may not realize this, and might surge forward with a town result on only one of them, accompishing nothing other than outing themself.

[Battle Mage]

Well, i cant say i'm CERTAIN about their affiliation. But i am pretty confident from my analyses that Chronx, Distad and SonicPulsar are town. Or at least, they aren't people i would consider lynching at this point. I probably need to read Atticus, as i couldnt say a single thing about him atm. lol
But I'm still thinking Gorgon is a good play, though i will say more after i have seen everyone's player analyses as i requested.

The way you put it is very insightful however. I dont think the mason claim is bogus atm, so there could be 1 scum within my group of 3. But, overall, i find those 3 to be bottom of the suspect list atm.

Post 431 by Chronx deserves comment, because it raises the possibility of one of the claimed masons being a Godfather (though i had mentioned mafia power roles, i hadnt considered this aspect in detail). As such, it might not be wise for a cop claim now, unless the player in question feels they should (this is all assuming that we have a cop). Until we see what the scum are listed as, we cant really evaluate this more.

HeH-did you think i was protown yesterday, or did you change your mind after seeing the events at the end of day/overnight?

I'd still like an LoS of some sort from everyone. WE have high activity, but some people seem to have missed my request.

Please read back, and DO IT.

BM

I was starting to look at the 7 living, unclaimed players when the following post caught my eye.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

Battle Mage, can you please call out the posts that make you think they're innocent? "Totally beyond suspicion" is pretty strong -- are you really that sure? I ask this because these three are on the following list:

I think our best bet is to focus on the 7 living, unclaimed players. That's Battle Mage, Hang 'em High, Sonicpulsar, Gorgon, ChronX, Atticus and distad.

If we believe the mason claim, then 3 of those 7 are scum (assuming there are 3 scum, which I think is likely). If the three you name are indeed innocent that only leaves four possibilities -- two of whom are you and me. I know I'm innocent and if we assume for a second you are as well, then the math doesn't work as it only leaves Gorgon and Atticus. Therefore, one of our assumptions is wrong, which means at least one of the following: A) There are only two scum; B) The mason claim is bogus; C) At least one of the three you name are scum; D) You're scum; E) I'm scum.

I don't think A) is likely; a 10:2 town to scum ratio would be too unbalanced. While I tend to think the mason claim is legitimate, B) is certainly a possibility. I don't know how to judge C), which is the reason for my question above. If D) is true, then all this speculation is moot since your list of innocents can't be believed. I know E) is not the case, although obviously you don't.

I'm writing off A) and E) as possibilities, and since I think you're likely town I'm writing off D) as well (for now, at least). That means that I think either the mason claim is a lie or at least one of the three on your list is actually scum. Since I tend to think the mason claim is true, I'm guessing that someone on your list is scum. But if you've got a solid argument for why they're town I'd reassess the likelihood that the mason claim is bogus.

[distad]

I didn't see the request. Sorry, BM. I've been slowly working on a comprehensive list with descriptions of everybody, but I haven't had enough time to finish it here today. I'll get the rest of it worked out tonight/tomorrow and I certainly will get it out here with plenty of time before the deadline.

LS:
1) Mr.PiGG - This is with a HUGE asterisk, but aside from the claim, I certainly see him as the scummiest.
2) Atticus
3) HeH
4) Gorgon

[Gorgon]

I was stuck at work for far longer than I wished to. I'm home now, but tired ... and it's getting late (GMT here). I'll look things over better tomorrow, but I might as well throw up a quick list of top three:

- HeH (Just a general feeling that he's not very helpful to the town, plus his insistence of calling himself town - no one else seems to deem this necessary. Raffles was the only one who attacked his defense yesterday, and I still really think that it's a big possibility that Raffles was actually killed because he was seen as a potential threat to someone)
- Atticus (Needs to contribute more)
- Sonicpulsar (Needs to contribute more)

I also had this crazy notion skimming through Day 1 that HeH and BM might be scum together, and that they set up the whole NK blather beforehand, to distract. It's a theory anyway ... they were the ones who were most active in pursuing it, and HeH even brought it up later, accusing BM. Could be distancing ...

[curiouskarmadog]

I have been approved to say this..

I am aware that both Pigg and I are town

[distad]

Okay, ChronX... *NOW* it would be a ballsy gambit.

[ChronX]

*rethinks whole game*

[curiouskarmadog]

I think, if the cop can either prove or disprove the mason-claim, he should come forward. Obviously if he cant, he should stay hidden until he can. Of course, it would mean losing the Cop, but, in killing the Cop, the scum would clear 2 people from our suspect list. I think its worth it.

FoS BM

not liking the fact that BM seems to be trying to bring the cop earlier than needed. I think the cop should come out if he has a scum read or we are about to lynch someone he knows as innocent, but before that it is silly?..BM, why do you want the cop to come out so early? We are not in situation that a cop is needed to come forward. Quit searching for the cop!

[Sonicpulsar]

I tend to be suspicious of these happy horseshit kind of posts. He even comments that the dead included someone not posting much anyways....wasn't he on the candidate list for potential scummy lurkers, just yesterday? Maybe we've gotten through to him and he is opting instead for contentless activity...ie lurking in plain site.

The reason lurking is bad is that it protects scum from saying anything or making analysis that can be used against them. If SP comes back with something thoughtful, that first post won't bother me so much.

I'll never understand why stating happiness over the loss of a vanilla during the NK is seen as scummy. Because of this, I've never subscribed (or is it prescribed?) to it. I'm genuinely happy that Raffles wasn't a power role. We need all the power roles alive for as long as possible to help us.

I don't think I'll ever have the time and patience to make tons of small posts multiple times per day. The best I can do is make a few long posts when I can. It's up to you to determine if I'm actually providing content.

HeH is near the top of my list. He keeps proclaiming himself town, coupled with his theories where he makes seemingly innocent assumptions.

1) The mason claim is bogus and BM's innocent list is accurate. This would mean the scum are CKD, Mr.PiGG and either Gorgon or Atticus.

2) The mason claim is legitimate and one of BM's innocent list is inaccurate. In this case the scum are Gorgon, Atticus and one of distad, ChronX and Sonicpulsar).

Both of these scenarios work off the assumption that both Battle Mage and I are innocent, which I think is the case. Well, I know I am innocent and I'm leaning that way for BM as well. And it also relies heavily on Battle Mage's innocent list. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'd like to hear his reasons for listing those three. He was very sure based on his language.

At least to me, some people are putting way too much weight in what BM has to say. I believe he's genuinely scumhunting, but I can't tell if it stems from a desire to misdirect or actually help the town. I haven't seen any clues that push me one way or the other. Although, for once (I'm shocked and amazed), I have to agree with CKD on calling BM out on calling for the cop. I feel this is way too early in the day. BM, are you afraid of a quick lynch by the scum?

As has been said, I don't have a good feel for Atticus, he simply has posted enough recently.

Post 390 still holds for me. I haven't cared for Gorgon's willingness to read in to what Raffles did during Day 1 looking for some gems, but I don't think it's scummy.

I am openminded to considering a new candidate for today's lynch.

Did I miss the dicussion on when we decided who is and who is not a candidate? This comes across as scummy to me (as in he'd discussed with his scum buddies who they were gonna go after). I think this may have been an inadvertent slip up on his part.

FOS Chronx

And to just go ahead and state it for the record, I believe the mason claims are true. Despite the WIFOM, I think it most likely that they're simply both masons and both town.

Did I leave anyone out? I think I at least mentioned everyone in the game.