Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[Battle Mage]

interesting.

Care to elaborate?

No, not really. I'm currently pretty neutral towards you atm. You arent obvious town, but you arent certain scum either.

BM

[curiouskarmadog]

interesting.

Care to elaborate?

No, not really. I'm currently pretty neutral towards you atm. You arent obvious town, but you arent certain scum either.

BM

he really hasnt taken a stance on anything yet either.

[Sonicpulsar]

Content will be incoming tomorrow morning some time. Sorry for my lack of posting.

[theopor_COD]

Have a lot on for the next 48 hours or so. Deadline is being extended until Friday 5th 9.00PM UK time mainly to ensure I'll be about.

I'll work on a votecount later today, pushed for time at mo

[Hang 'em High]

I think I've answered all the questions that were directed at me. If I missed something I apologize -- please point it out and I'll be happy to address it. Now I'm going to do an analysis of the remaining players. I'll probably break it up into a few different posts. First I'm going to start with the claimed masons, who I'll do together.

d3sisted II/Mr.PiGG and Curiouskarmadog

. As I've said before, I'm inclined to believe the claim since it seemed like a far too risky gambit for the scum. If CKD was scum, I just don't see why he would have claimed -- I think he would have simply let PiGG swing rather than exposing both of them. And then CKD went through the whole exercise of asking the mod for permission about what he could say. While it could be an elaborate ruse, it seems more likely to me to be legitimate. Having said that, I'm finding some stuff about CKD and Mr.Pigg/d3sisted II that is scummy. I disliked this post from day 1:

hey maybe Pigg and I will be lucky and the mafia will just pass right over us Night 1....remember mafia, there is nothing sketcher than a mason claim not followed up by a night kill...

Then, after a few people mentioned their dislike for that post, he comes back on day 2 with a similar post:

well this is rich, neither one of us was NKed, YOU SCREWED UP MAFIA.

The think that they will be able to push a case against Pigg or I to get the town to do their dirty work. I dont think they will fall for it.

These really make it seem like you're trying too hard to come up with an explanation for your survival before anyone put pressure on you about it. Comes across as WAY too defensive for my taste. On the flip side, I do like CKD's day 1 pursuit of ChronX for keeping his vote on a claimed mason and I like his push against Battle Mage for the latter's cop claim request.

As for Mr.PiGG/d3sisted II, PiGG was certainly putting out scum vibes on day 1 and was likely only saved by CKD's claim. I don't agree with d3sisted II's analysis of the bandwagon hopping near the end of day 1. While it's true that scum would do this, it's also true that a reasonable townie would do it as well. A number of people agreed that we should pressure the lurkers and that's what was happening. Sonicpulsar got votes and then people backed off when he posted. We then went after d3sisted I since PiGG was MIA. When PiGG reappeared with a scummy post, people turned their attention to him -- particularly since d3sisted I was on vacation. After the mason claim, people backed away from PiGG and revisited d3sisted I. I think all the bandwagon hopping that happened there were reasonable responses to what was happening. Although I disagree with his interpretation of the end of day 1, I don't think that makes d3sisted II scummy -- I actually look at it as a reasonable attempt to unearth scum.

Conclusion: CKD has done some scummy things but has also aggressively hunted for scum -- although his hunting could be scum trying to steer us towards a townie. Mr.PiGG was scummy, but I think d3sisted II has been fine. The major issue with these two comes down to whether or not you believe the claim. I'm leaning toward "yes", although the jury is still out. For today, however, I'm putting them down as likely town.

[Hang 'em High]

Sonicpulsar

. Started out day 1 very slow with posts like this:

I'll wait for more players to check in before I say too much else.

I guess I'm just waiting to respond to what others say at this point.

Unvote

til I hear from the new guys.

At the moment, I'm not lurking but I don't really have a lot to say.

I'll hold off on voting to see how people respond to the fact that I'm was lurking on purpose.

As I read I kept getting the impression that he was waiting for other people to make things happen and not trying to make things happen himself. It seems he's not trying to unearth scum, which doesn't help the town. He does kind of explain this a couple of times:

Someone will inevitably come out annoying or stupid and we can go from there.

No one has really said anything particularly stupid or illogical thus far. That's what I tend to look for and jump on.

While this is fair, he didn't put pressure on anyone that would lead them to say anything stupid. He also comments quite a bit that there is little to go on, but doesn't say or do anything to get things moving. Seems very passive. Now I don't know if this makes him scummy, but it certainly doesn't help the town's cause either. As day 1 progressed he picked things up and started getting more aggressive. This makes me inclined to think his early lack of scumhunting was due to the early slow pace of the game rather than a desire to lay low. Still, I'm not writing it off entirely.

He's mentioned a couple of times that he's getting a scum vibe from distad, but hasn't given us much detail as to why.

@Sonicpulsar

: could you please expand on your suspicions of distad?

There are also times that SP doesn't appear to be paying close attention. He's confused people in his arguments a couple of times and misinterpreted ChronX's words. In each case however, he pointed out his own mistake so I think this is a null tell. A little more interesting is that he misstated his own voting pattern.

Here's the end-of-D1 vote analysis I promised...

Player: vote

Gorgon: d3sisted, MrPigg, unvote
Distad: MrPigg, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted
Sonicpulsar: MrPigg, unvote, d3sisted
ChronX: d3sisted, MrPigg
Atticus: d3sisted
HeH: d3sisted
BM: Gorgon

From that, I'm seeing Distad, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar as possible scum (in that order).

Another point of interest is ChronX's most recent vote on Gorgon. By my count, that is the fourth following/BW vote he has cast this game. That exceptionally suspic if you ask me.

FoS: distad, ChronX

My original vote on Pigg was purely random (on page 1 I believe). Just thought I'd point that out.

D3sisted called him on this and he never responded.

Uh huh. Then you voted Pigg again later in the day.

Not knowing your own voting pattern is odd, although based on his earlier misstatements I'm not inclined to read too much into it. Besides, I don't find anything suspicious about his voting pattern anyway.

Conclusion: I don't have a strong read on Sonicpulsar at this point either way. I'm thinking he's a possible scum candidate, but I've got to see how he compares to some of the others to see where he falls on the list.

[Sonicpulsar]

Congratulations HeH at pulling every wishy washy comment I've made in the game thus far. After 23 pages of posts, I'm fairly confident I could pull 5 quotes from anyone who's active that make them sound similar to how you've painted me (and most of mine come from obvious things changing (the fact I wasn't lurking on purpose) or new guys joining the game). At least I blatantly state these things rather than simply lurk or say nothing. Also, as you've said yourself, I try to cover my bases when I screw up on something obvious, which I'll do now.

I'd forgotten that I was near the end of the wagon on Pigg because he was refusing to defend himself and put that vote on to pressure him (lot of good that did). Within a day or so (I'm not gonna check exactly since I don't care overly much) CKD made the mason claim and I immediately retracted my vote.

Oh, and unless I haul ass, I doubt I'll get this posted by noon, which means I lied again when I said I'd have content in the morning. I apologize.

As for Distad, ever since the end of Day 1, I've been getting this vibe that Distad is trying just a bit too hard to appear protown. I'm not entirely sure I can quote a post illustrating it, but I get an overall ungenuine feeling from his posts. As was stated a few pages ago, he was wishy washy toward the end of Day 1 but I don't read that as too much of a scumtell. But, as I've stated before, I seem to be a vast minority on this.

I can't get a good read on BM, he's a slippery one. He tends to do a very good job of covering his tracks but the whole cop claim fiasco has me worried. I'm not sure how to read it. Best case, he remains neutral in my eyes. Worst case, I'll use it as a reason to vote for him eventually.

I honestly need to do a reread on Gorgon. I stand by my comment from post 515. I just don't see the case against him as opposed to others. I've been getting a scumhunting, townie vibe from him.

In response to D3ssisted, did I miss the post IN THIS GAME where you stated you were on V/LA? Honestly, I may have missed it. From what I saw (quick scan) your last post before you were lynched was post 238 on Sept 17th. The last "day" where you actually contributed to the game was Sept 14/15th. The lynch happened on the 21st.

I still buy into the mason claims.

Chronx, if I'm reading your post 514, are you saying I wasn't voting at the deadline? I'm fairly certain I was voting for D3ssisted. In fact, I think he quoted my reason for voting him in post 503. I'm a bit confused at this point. I need to go back and look at Chronx's voting pattern.

[Sonicpulsar]

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

[ChronX]

Chronx, if I'm reading your post 514, are you saying I wasn't voting at the deadline? I'm fairly certain I was voting for D3ssisted. In fact, I think he quoted my reason for voting him in post 503. I'm a bit confused at this point. I need to go back and look at Chronx's voting pattern.

No, that was part of my case on Gorgon. Gorgon voted all over the place but at the deadline was a no vote. He answered in 542.

And yes, I wasn't voting when the deadline hit - the reason? I would have voted for d3sisted, but he had enough votes already.

I saw no point in risking an early hammer when he already had enough votes for a deadline lynch.

I thought he was at 4 votes when I said I wouldn't vote for him, although I supported his lynch; turns out he was up to 5 votes then. Would you have been happier if I had hammered before the deadline?

I underlined a bit that I found scummy when I re-read it just now when I went looking for it to answer your question.

confirm vote: Gorgon

[Hang 'em High]

In response to D3ssisted, did I miss the post IN THIS GAME where you stated you were on V/LA? Honestly, I may have missed it. From what I saw (quick scan) your last post before you were lynched was post 238 on Sept 17th. The last "day" where you actually contributed to the game was Sept 14/15th. The lynch happened on the 21st.

If my memory is correct, d3sisted had put in his signature that he would be away.

[ChronX]

SP's post 557 seems to me an over-reaction to what HeH said about SP. SP worries his vote will be seen as OMGUS when HeH really rendered a no verdict to this point.

HeH, on the other hand, could possibly be damning with faint praise, a POSSIBLY scummy tactic, although by no means necessarily so.

I get a strange vibe from this exchange. Each has been a declared suspect of other players as this game has progressed. My gut tells me this is NOT town on town crime...I lean a certain way but cannot definitively decide how to read it, but I think 1 of the 2 (EITHER HeH OR SP) is scum.

[Hang 'em High]

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

Wow, you seem to be getting overly defensive. I'd hardly classify my analysis of you as an attack. First, I never said you were wishy-washy, I said you were passive -- that's very different. I said you weren't aggressive early in day 1 and I think that's very fair. I then said you picked up the pace later in the day and were more aggressive. Based on those two observations, I concluded that portion of my analysis with:

This makes me inclined to think his early lack of scumhunting was due to the early slow pace of the game rather than a desire to lay low. Still, I'm not writing it off entirely.

Do you really think this qualifies as an attack? To me it seems like a balanced analysis of your game. Later I talked about some mistakes you made, but then said that I consider them a null tell. I then conclude my entire review of your play with:

Conclusion: I don't have a strong read on Sonicpulsar at this point either way. I'm thinking he's a possible scum candidate, but I've got to see how he compares to some of the others to see where he falls on the list.

Boy, that's a vicious attack. I didn't vote for you, point a FoS at you or even say you were likely scum. And yet you use this "attack" as a reason to vote for me. I'd like to hear the other reasons for your vote.

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: For reference, my previous post crossed with ChronX's.

[Hang 'em High]

ChronX

. His play seems pretty pro-town -- he has been aggressively pursuing scum. He puts forth theories and backs them up with facts and votes. He's gone after a wide variety of people -- his votes have hit d3sisted I, BattleMage, Curiouskarmadog, Mr.PiGG, me and Gorgon. He's not a follower. When I was bandwagoned on day 1 he instead went after Battle Mage. While this could be viewed as trying to distance himself from a bandwagon, this is probably not the case since he later joined both the d3sisted I and Mr.PiGG bandwagons.

The one thing he's done that bothers me was keeping his vote on Mr.PiGG even after the mason claim. He did give reasons he didn't believe the claim and I think his logic was sound. However, being suspicious of the claim isn't enough to warrant voting for a claimed power role. As day 2 progressed he did back off his attack on CKD.

Conclusion: The vote on a claimed mason bothers me, but aside from that I think he's been a solid, pro-town scum hunter. I realize he could be scum trying to direct the conversation, but by and large I like his logic. Verdict: likely town.

[distad]

Unvote

HeH is finally doing what we've been asking of him and my vote is no longer necessary here.

[distad]

EBWOP: This does not clear him, IMO. My biggest hit on him was that he had no content in his posts, which appears to be changing.

[Sonicpulsar]

I consider it an attack when someone quotes me 7 different times and seemingly makes an analysis supported by those quotes when the same could be done of just about anyone. In other words, I could probably take just about anyone who's posted a fair amount, quote them 7 times (with very little context and one-liners), make an analysis, and come to whatever conclusion I originally set out to make. Basically, you're doing the classic "posting a lot but contributing little content". I'll be the first to argue that what "I" think is content, others might not see as content but your post 555 just strikes me as particularly contentless (but maybe I am overreacting because it was targeted at me, seem both Chronx and HeH think so).

My retaliation is mostly as a result of your analysis of me. Upon reflection, I got more of a scum vibe coming from your analysis because it was so....spineless (for lack of a better word).

[Sonicpulsar]

EBWOP: This does not clear him, IMO. My biggest hit on him was that he had no content in his posts, which appears to be changing.

Interesting. We've come to opposite conclusions. What did you find particularly....contentful from his latest posts?

Am I being blinded by the fact that HeH's analysis was of me?

[distad]

He has had very specific bits of analysis, which is a big difference from Day 1. While he is maintaining this, I'd like to turn my focus to the other two people whom I considered to be scum.

[curiouskarmadog]

I would like to see a vote count, please

[distad]

I thought his comments re: ChronX were very appropriate and to the point. His thoughts on you, while possibly out of context, do not seem incorrect, either. I do think you're slightly blinded on that point because they are directed towards you.

[ChronX]

I would like to see a vote count, please

Theo was on earlier and said he was having a time problem but would get us a vote count as soon as he could. A good thing is that his post is buried in some solid activity today.

[Hang 'em High]

Atticus

. Ugh. Is obviously having a hard time keeping up with the game. Promises to post analysis and then fails to do so. I really believe it is due to RL issues and it is consistent with another game I'm in with him, so I'm not going to read too much into it. However, his lack of posting makes it very difficult to get a read on him. Now, looking at what he has posted, I thought this was interesting.

I'd like to stick with HeH for scum at this point. I would have to go back through the couple of posts again to get some pinpoints, which right now I am too tired to do. But his comments and defense for his bandwagon seem rather weak. I'll keep my vote where it is.

However, he hadn't voted for me. When Gorgon pointed this out to him, Atticus responded with:

Somehow I thought I was voting for him. I guess I will keep it in my pocket then.

Not that I'm begging for votes, but it seems odd that he first thought he was confirming a vote on me and then decided not to vote for me at all. Seems inconsistent.

On day 2 he made the following post:

Alright, if I had to kill 3 people right now, they would be ChronX, HeH, and Gorgon.

ChronX because he does post often, but it seems to me he rarely has his own opinions, or is actually scum-hunting.

HeH because, like ChronX, he posts often, but it's hard to see anything that's very hard-pressing.

Gorgon I just get a bad feeling from. Not sure why.

I know this really isn't much, but I believe the mason claim, I believe I know who the cop is, BM looks town, and distad appears very honest and unscumlike.

I find his take on ChronX to be particularly odd. As I mentioned in my analysis of ChronX, I think he's been actively scum hunting and does express his own opinions. I think Atticus' take is just wrong. I've haven't done my analysis of Gorgon yet, so I don't know where he'll fall on my suspect list. But Atticus' explanation of why he would kill Gorgon is really flimsy.

Conclusion: It's very hard to get a read on Atticus due to his lack of posting. What little he has posted, I don't really like. While it's possible he could be a non-contributing townie, it's also possible he's a non-contributing scum. If he's the former, he's not helping us with his lack of content. I'd like to hear more from him in order to get a better read, but right now he's my top suspect out of the people I've analyzed. In fact, I'll back that up with a

Vote: Atticus

, although I may change my mind (and vote) as I work my way through the rest of the list.

[Hang 'em High]

I consider it an attack when someone quotes me 7 different times and seemingly makes an analysis supported by those quotes when the same could be done of just about anyone.

Well, I

am

doing an analysis of everyone. You just happened to be third on the list behind CKD and d3sisted II. And I used those quotes to back up my assertion that you were doing a lot of waiting around early in the game. I think that's valid.

In other words, I could probably take just about anyone who's posted a fair amount, quote them 7 times (with very little context and one-liners), make an analysis, and come to whatever conclusion I originally set out to make.

While what you say is true, I take exception to the implication that I set out trying to reach a particular conclusion. I tried to look at your posts from the point of view of "could he be scum" and "could he be town". I stand by my analysis and don't think my take was biased in either direction, although that's really for everyone else to decide.

I don't like that you contradict yourself when explaining your vote against me. In your second response to my post, you said:

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

But then in a subsequent post you said:

My retaliation is mostly as a result of your analysis of me. Upon reflection, I got more of a scum vibe coming from your analysis because it was so....spineless (for lack of a better word).

So which is it? You said at first that your vote for me was really not an OMGUS vote, but then later you said it was mostly retaliation for my analysis. At first you voted me because I attacked you, which was "the straw that broke the camel's back", but then later your vote was because I was "spineless". Again, which was it? Was I attacking or spineless (they seem mutually exclusive)? Was it an OMGUS vote or not?

[Battle Mage]

i'd be interested to see the top 2 lynches for today from everyone.