Mini 458 - Game over!

[Adel]

/confirm

[Adel]

vote: molestargazer

for being the last to confirm.

[Adel]

Original Roll String: 1d12 (STATIC)

1 12-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

just testing.. I'm not sure how the dice tags work

Original Roll String: 1d12 (STATIC)

1 12-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

[/dice]

[Adel]

more testing

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (11) = 11

[Adel]

testing...

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

[Adel]

Independent confirmation: It was indeed 11:46. Lynch the liar? [/joke]

[Adel]

trying to figure out the reason for a novote just gave me a headache.

[Adel]

J-man & molestargazer were the last to confirm, which to me means that they are the most likely to have been engaging in PMs before game start. placing the second vote on carrotcake is another thing that sends a up a flag, but analysis of silly votes does seem a little..... silly.

[Adel]

I agree that being last to confirm doesn't mean much.
Bringing up the last-to-confirm-theory seems more suspicious, but that's not much either.

Looking at activity logs, molestarman didn't post at all while the rest of us were confirming, and J-man had only one other post, just an hour before he confirmed. I guess I should've checked the logs before I gave voice to my hunch. My bad. I always imagined that scum would plan out elaborate plans requiring military precision, and that would take time. Does that mean we may have sloppy and unprepared scum who won't be all on the same page? I am a newbie, just in case that last question doesn't give it away.

[Adel]

<- Colorado native. They do have internets there, I promise.

How far are you willing to take the tromboner bandwagon? Are there more open seats? Does it have a/c and a good stereo? Leather seats and minibar?

[Adel]

no, no, you are just the draft animal. Yep, we're in a wagon being pulled by a mole. Exciting stuff.

A general question for the rest of you: where do you stand on the "lynch the lurkers" tactic? I think that on Day 1 the player with the least posted activity (content consisting of insightful posts, original opinions, FoSs and votes,

not

word count) should always have a wagon until a very convincing case can be built for one player.

In general, I think it is better to wait until

two

convincing cases can be built. The debate between the proponents of each case could be very illuminating.

It is all about generating enough information to make an informed decision.

Anyway, I'll suggest unorthodox tactics throughout the game. Some people think Mafia is a game about social conformity. "The nail that sticks up get hammered down." I'm an iconoclast and I just do not operate that way. So, fair warning.

[Adel]

I don't like lynch the lurkers, as much as i'd rather have pressure applied to the point where they start to give us information, so that we can find connections for the later days. That's just my opinion.

So that would be "almost-lynch the lurkers". And if they just don't cooperate, what then? "We might lynch the lurkers"?

[Adel]

I guess I use a slightly more robust definition of lurking. I consider the player who pops in every two or three days to parrot an opinion or make an obvious observation to be lurking, and they can not be replaced.

[Adel]

I think that is a conversation that should wait until push comes to shove.

[Adel]

When are the GCSEs over?

Why wouldn't it be a good idea then for scum to lurk if they are given a pass for day one, and on day 2 they weren't on the bandwagon of a mis-lynch?

Yes I am new here, but the current meta seems slightly broken in favor of Mafia to me. All they have to do is post enough to not get replaced, and let the active townies pressure each other enough to out the power roles. Then, if an outed power role is not killed night 1, and was on the wagon for a mislynch, accusations of "fake claim" tend to stick, resulting in a mislynch day 2. That leaves town in day 3 nearly in a lynch or loose position depending on the number of scum (usually 3 or 4, right?).

Advantage: scum.

Please tell me that I am wrong, or how to stop this from happening.

[Adel]

I feel empathy for your loss.

[Adel]

Isn't this pretty much the scenario I outlined? One player speks up with an opinion, and so quickly the masses surround him. One poorly worded post by J-man and we could have an easy mis-lynch with no good leads for day 2. How is that pro-town.

Big-ups for J-man for a. finding a decent reason to cast a vote (no lynch vote) and b. supporting it with a second (lurking).

[Adel]

While I don't like the posts by J-man so far, I'm going to wait for a little more evidence to base an opinion on.

Voting for lurkers is often a mafia strategy, as they know that they only have to post enough to not be classified lurkers.
It also means that the person killed doesn't provide the town with much information, as he probably didn't get on enough to accuse people etc.

So what is your prescribed course of action? Target those who chase lurkers? Ignore lurkers as if they aren't in the game?

In my opinion our initial objective should be to pressure all players into posting enough content that a reasonable case can be made against a couple players, and a reasonable case can be made for clearing the rest. So long as there is a player out there that I don't have enough information on to found an opinion upon, I'll refuse to extend that player the benefit of the doubt.

ThAdmiral: could you clarify your post, or do you stand by your words as they currently exist?

[Adel]

Especially since J-man was the biggest promoter of a pro-town tactic that would quickly identify dylan41985 as potential scum. If dylan was scum planning on lurking into day 2 and beyond, a bandwagon on J-man would provide his best cover... so when J-man identifies him as a lurker is would seem OMGUSy.

Huh. I just sold myself on that theory.

unvote:molestargazer

vote:dylan41985

for lurking and casting a suspect vote.

[Adel]

WIFOM. Please provide a better rationale.

[Adel]

So J-man now has 5 votes, with seven to lynch...great idea town! put him in a position where mafia can easily kill him!

{snip}

This was right after pickemgenius said something about dylan. And Adel's reasoning didn't seem very good, it seems to me he keeps saying people are scum because of what they will do in the future; that doesn't count as proof. However, what what's-his-face(dylan-something) did was pretty scummy, the way he just dropped in and voted without much reasoning, but I still think Adel is more scum.

Vote:Adel

So Kate doesn't like the size of a bandwagon on J-man. But she also doesn't like my rationale for defending him. She thinks the person I voted for did something pretty scummy, but I get her vote anyway. For jumping on a "bandwagon" by casting the second vote. When someone else is -2 to lynch.

If there is logic in that argument, could someone explain it to me? It seems really inconsistent to me.

[Adel]

BM = Battle Mage, apparently the most popular player on mafiascum.

[Adel]

Commonly used abbreviations and there is lots of other goodness on the wiki. You've been registered here for a couple of months longer than me, WIFOM is pretty basic and is commonly used.

I did defend J-man, in an oblique way.

[Adel]

I've only played in one other game, and WIFOM is used alot, however I still don't know what it means or any of the other crap you guys say

In my last post, there are words that are blue, & they are a link to the page on the wiki where those abbreviations and many others are defined.

[Adel]

I do not want J-man to claim. If he is just a townie no one will believe him, is he is a power role then the scum benefit, and if he is scum he will claim a power role and get a pass for the rest of the day and probably beyond. I don't see any of those outcomes really benefiting the town.

His scumtells to date aren't that significant to me, later they may be, but not yet. I have no problem with the votes that are on him, but it is

way

too early to lynch

anyone

. What is our deadline? Right, we do not have one.

On the other hand, with my 2.5 games of experience, I may be missing something.

Why would it be

good

for J-man to claim? There very well may be a reason I am not familiar with.

J-man, I would like to see you defend yourself point by point.

[Adel]

Dude, J-man, you aren't doing yourself any favors. Saying that you aren't a werewolf, then saying that you felt the temptation to fakeclaim, and then claiming vanilla townie? I'm starting to feel the temptation to vote for you now. It isn't so much what you say as it is the way you say it, that makes you look scummy. You need to put more words up in your own defense.

Why do you have a FoS on MOS? OMGUS? Again, it does look that way.

Adel, by your logic, no one should ever claim. Do you really believe that it is helpful for the town to have no one ever claim?

If it was then a mass roleclaim on day 1 would be a good idea. If early claims are pro-town, then all power roles (with obvious exceptions) should claim in the same line as their random vote.
If claiming is protown, then we shouldn't have to apply the pressure of a lynch for power roles to claim.

Are you suggesting that all cops should announce themselves immediately? How about vigs? Masons? Docs? Then why is pressuring someone for a claim, based on very little evidence, a good idea?

I may be missing something, if I am, please illuminate me.

[Adel]

However, it is extremely unhelpful for the town for someone to refuse to claim when they are about to be lynched.

I agree with that.

I think I was interpreting your case to be that we should bandwagon players in sequence until each player claims, or looks scummy enough for someone to drop the hammer.

Regarding J-man, i have my doubts, but not enough to vote for him yet, and certainly

not

enough to support his lynching.

Question for entire town: J-man claimed vanilla, do you believe him?

[Adel]

I would like J-Man to claim.

I didn't see him as being about to be lynched at this point. I thought it was way too early for anyone to be endorsing that. I saw this as a bandwagon on slight evidence just being used as an excuse to pressure a power role into outing himself.

If anyone thought that there was enough reason to cast the last two votes (hard to quantify), then J-man obviously should claim.

I do not know what to make of his role claim of vanilla.

[Adel]

Good questions Admiral, similar to the one I posted earlier.

Also, does anyone find it ironic, not to mention hypocritical, that j-man wanted a quick-lynch, and now that he is facing a potential one he is saying it would be a bad idea?

Yes.

Did you miss my earlier post directed at you?

While I don't like the posts by J-man so far, I'm going to wait for a little more evidence to base an opinion on.

Voting for lurkers is often a mafia strategy, as they know that they only have to post enough to not be classified lurkers.
It also means that the person killed doesn't provide the town with much information, as he probably didn't get on enough to accuse people etc.

So what is your prescribed course of action? Target those who chase lurkers? Ignore lurkers as if they aren't in the game?

In my opinion our initial objective should be to pressure all players into posting enough content that a reasonable case can be made against a couple players, and a reasonable case can be made for clearing the rest. So long as there is a player out there that I don't have enough information on to found an opinion upon, I'll refuse to extend that player the benefit of the doubt.

ThAdmiral: could you clarify your post, or do you stand by your words as they currently exist?

I do not like the possibility of J-Man being lynched while we still have so many players that I have so little information on.

[Adel]

MOS, I apologize for this horrible play so far.

Asking for a claim at -2 is not a scumtell!

There is a good case to be made for it, I disagree with it, but there is nothing inherently scummy about thinking that way. Waiting until -1 for a claim could a)result in an unaware noobie dropping the hammer or b)scum dropping the hammer.

I was hoping that J-man would argue his way out of his wagon without resorting to a claim, for the reasons I stated above. He has failed so far. My read is inexperienced scum.

unvote vote: J-man

Note: J-Man is at -1 to lynch! No one vote for him without a dang good reason!

The pressure is on now. J-man: why are you not scum? What have you done that is pro-town? Who is a better candidate for scum than you? What have they done that is anti-town?

[Adel]

Came back to make sure I didn't want to unvote before going to sleep. I feel ok with J-man being at -1. I would prefer to wait longer for a lynch, but his horrid posts are screaming "inexperienced scum" to me. More pressure is called for. He will have a chance to answer.

[Adel]

i am going to post my full defence in 6 hours time if still at -1 to lynch you guys better be sure this is what you want by then.

Are you trying to blackmail the town by threatening to make a fake-claim?

[Adel]

Setting me up to take the NK? Thanks, sorta.

[Adel]

I'm taking a step back. My read on J-Man is still that he is unexperienced scum in a panic, if he bluffed twice, I don't know what would stop him from bluffing a third time since it seems to be his play style.

However,

TheAdmiral and MoS both seem pretty above board. At least one of them isn't scum- the odds of both of them being scum with J-man,

and

being on his bandwagon are awfully slim.

unvote:J-man

Placing pressure on pickemgenuis may be a good idea. He was active, and had several chances to join the bandwagon. If he is scum and J-man is town, then what would keep pickemgenius from joining the bandwagon, not as the hammer but before that? Scum-buddies already on the wagon. Alternatively, his actions make sense if both J-man and pickemgenuis are scum together. Good play would be preventing the lynch without associating too closely with his buddy, while still being in a position to be the hammer if the lynch appears inevitable.

I'll take a step back at this point. I am not confident of my ability to choose the correct course from here. Pressuring some lurkers into posting may be a good idea at some point in the future. Several players are at only 4 or 5 posts, and a couple of them were on the J-man wagon.

[Adel]

Tell me how this helped us.

Increase in information. No more needs to be said.

[Adel]

vote:dylan41985

I don't like the avatar, and I don't like the lurking.

[Adel]

Repeated for emphasis:
In my opinion our initial objective should be to pressure all players into posting enough content that a reasonable case can be made against a couple players, and a reasonable case can be made for clearing the rest. So long as there is a player out there that I don't have enough information on to found an opinion upon, I'll refuse to extend that player the benefit of the doubt.

My wall of shame

Carrotcake: 7 posts, last post on Saturday

needs a prod

, has posted in other games as late as today, no content
DanMonkey: 4 posts, last post on Sunday, consistent with other games, almost needs a prod, no content.
dylan41985: 5 posts, last post today, made 10 other game posts today, was on J-man bandwagon, no content
fak: 4 posts, last post on Saturday

needs a prod

, made 11 posts in other games as late as Monday, was on J-man bandwagon, no content
molestargazer: 9 posts, last post on Sunday, almost needs a prod, only current game on mafiascum, very little content
Tromboner: 10 posts, last post on Tuesday, consistent with other games, was on J-man bandwagon. very little content

Note: I am human, and I make mistakes. If I made one, please point it out, and I'll apologize.

pickemgenius has plenty of posts, but they seem a little skimpy or wishy washy to me. Low content. He very nearly made the wall.

We have several town players who are hurting the town by not being active. If you want to win, start posting. About one post a day is considered polite, as is announcing if you are going to be gone for more than 48 hours. Start posting, and put some opinions in them. If you are town, you do not need to worry about a quick-lynch. Just be honest and open, and it will all work out just fine for us. Continued lurking will only hurt us.

Mod: Respectfully request a prod for Carrotcake and fak, and possibly for molestargazer and DanMonkey

[Adel]

Good luck on your exams. I understand that they're more important- and it speaks to your favor that you aren't posting in other games while ignoring this one.

[Adel]

EBWOP:good posting; thanks for making the time!

[Adel]

I agree that his example is crap. However, if he would've just written "not defending yourself seems scummy to me" I wouldn't see a problem with it, and that is the case behind his example. He didn't vote for J-man, and had several chances to. He used a crap example in support a valid opinion. Hanlon's razor may apply. I have other problems with him which I feel are of greater importance.

pickemgenius: How scummy or innocent do you currently consider J-man to be? What relationships do you see between J-man and other players, both positive and negative? What do you make of Kate at this point?

[Adel]

Do you have enough confidence in your conclusion that you would be happy to see him hang without additional evidence?

[Adel]

Oh, and I totally don't expect you to answer that if you think you have a decent reason not to. I didn't think it through all of the way.

[Adel]

Yeah, well "edit" and "delete" weren't options. I only post half of the posts I actually write. A bad one made it through Quality Assurance.

Anyway, I'm not on the pickemgenius wagon- yet.

I don't like the low activity level in this game. There are scum among the lurkers.

[Adel]

I find the interaction between Kate and pickemgenuis interesting.

Kate: I would like to see you ask pickemgenuis more questions. What would be so obvious about an Adel&pickemgenuis scumpair?

[Adel]

unvote:dylan41985

and just for emphasis

vote dylan41985

again.

[Adel]

Waiting for prodded players and other lurkers to roger up and post something.

[Adel]

Please again tell me where I imply I want J-man to be lynched.

FoS:pickemgenius

for not seeing that it is clearly there.

[Adel]

but maybe you should be. Try longer posts.

[Adel]

Yes. But.... J-man still look a little guilty, dylan41985 isn't doing much to clear himself, and we have two replacements coming in who are suspect to begin with. I fear the danger will be too many good scum candidates to choose from. You're doing a good job with pickemgenius so far. I bet I'll be on that wagon sooner or later.

[Adel]

1.

what

why the

serious slip up?
2.

how

why

am I trying to feign ignorance from what i've done?
3. Please again tell me

where

why

I imply/say I want J-man to be lynched.

Lets see you answer your own questions.

unvote:dylan41985 vote:pickemgenius

My vote may swing back to dylan41985 at any time for tactical reasons. If I could put 1/2 vote on each I would.

[Adel]

Can we do that?

huh, well, lets try.

1/2unvote:pickemgenius 1/2vote:dylan41985

[Adel]

Indeed, Adel's 1/2 vote has been ignored.

Curses! I was going to try decimal votes next, and then try conditional voting ("if"&"then", "for"&"do"and others)

pickemgenius: how do you see j-man now? Who is scummier?

[Adel]

You guys are freaking out on pickem for what seems to be absolutely nothing.

I sure MoS will make a more spirited defense, but it did seem a little like pickemgenuis in the post in question was either
a)giving subtle encouragement for someone else to drop the hammer,
b) fishing for an excuse to drop the hammer, or
c)making a strong pro-town statement in slight defense of a townie he knew was about to be mis-lynched.
I think a) is the most likely, and c) is the least, but all of them are possible outcomes that would benefit pickemgenuis is he were scum and J-man is town. I didn't take that post to be too scummy. pickemgenius's later defense of that post seemed a little scummy though, and MoS seems really convinced.

The primary scumtell I'm holding against pickemgenuis is a low content:postiness ratio. Which is exactly what you accused me of. Ironic.

I <3 being called odd. Thanks.

J-man, pickemgenuis, and dylan are my scummiest, which isn't saying much since MoS and the Admiral are the only ones I've kinda cleard in my head. Kate I don't know about, and the others haven't posted enough, yet.

[Adel]

Only scum try to coerce people into doing their job for them.

That isn't always true. Just leave it at that.

[Adel]

it is kind of suspicious that Mastermind of Sin confidently states that "J-man is not scum." Are they working together?

Mastermind - can you explain why he isn't scum?

*sigh*

unvote:pickemgenius vote:dylan41985

[Adel]

One more thing. I can understand the hatin' on Dylan, but it seems odd that you guys are gonna lynch him for being the most active of the lurkers. At least be consistent and lynch the biggest lurker (probably DanMonkey).

I don't know about the others, but I use a modified definition for lurking. Lurking does not just equal low word count. Not posting to the point of being replaced is not lurking, IMHO, that is just leaving the game in a very impolite way. Only making occasional useless posts is lurking, posting without original insights or opinions is lurking. The kind of lurking Dylan is doing is a big scumtell, the kind that Danthemonkey did isn't because he just got replaced.

[Adel]

Fear of the noose can be a wonderful motivator for good posting behavior. Look at dylan41985's post history in this thread. 10 posts, ~10 words per post if you don't count the votes and unvotes. He drops about 3 scum tells by my count. He is almost the complete package- what is not to love there? He just needs a

ribbon

rope

around his neck and he will be good to go.





... either that or start banging out some words on that keyboard, pronto.

[Adel]

Welcome ABR!

Why would you request to replace Tromboner? In other words, what was your specific request, and why?

[Adel]

So the new way to defend yourself is to not defend yourself. Huh. I think I like it.

unvote:dylan41985

for consistently not posting content, oh the irony.

Lets talk some more. I 'm starting to get worried that he in an inexperienced newbie and not inexperienced scum.

[Adel]

Save your breath for doing some explaining. I am often capricious and I may suddenly hammer you if you don't start talking. I'm giving you some time to change my mind and the minds of the other voters, that is all.

curiouskarmadog: could you elaborate on why you think dylan is scummy?

dylan: could you spend some time identifying the major points in the case against you, and responding to them?

[Adel]

Let me know if there are any mistakes. If there are three mistakes I'll post an errata. I started from post 41 because that was more or less the end of the random voting. I left DanMonkey's random up as an exception since dylan was so close to lynch so many times.

[Adel]

1 mistake so far: the line from HungreyJoe to dylan should be all blue... it was a FOS

[Adel]

Well, I found three mistakes, fixed them, and added some more information.

[Adel]

curiouskarmadog: you really nailed her. Her next reply should be interesting.

Could someone tell me the post numbers for posts where someone voted someone else to -2 to lynch?

I'm interested in how to present objective game data in a way that is clear and concise. Eventually I'll get the knack for it. I do them in other games, sometimes, but these are the best so far. I'm glad y'all like them, I enjoyed messing with your avatars. HungryJoe looks really great in front of carrotcake.

So, how to read the graphic:
First remember that I am not including random votes, so in collecting data for this graphic I pretended that no votes occurred before post 41, except for DanMonkey's since his sat on dylan forever and I am assuming that he choose to leave it there at some point for non-random reasons. I left fak's early vote on Tromboner up there because I missed it. If it had a number it would be zero.

There is too much information in this game to keep track of, putting as much as possible in a diagram is supposed to help with that. Print it out, and write on it. At least you will have a record of all votes and what order they came in as a starting point.

[Adel]

...I'm not sure exactly how much I'll be able to post. Don't vote me out while I'm gone! haha

You are so asking for it right now.

This game isn't making a lot of sense to me, we seem to be letting dylan off the hook and I feel ok with that..

How does MoS have three votes? NabakovNabakov was right to point out his absence, but those votes predate that.

Starting a wagon on Kate doesn't appeal to me after J-man and dylan41985, I think it could just be another wagon on a weaker player. If accept the appearance of incompetence as a defense for two players, I may as well accept it for a third.


Numenorean7 and curiouskarmadog seem pretty similar, good onservations and strong posting. I was having trouble telling their posts apart, until I read:

But you are a replacement like me, so I doubt you are mafia.

This is the only line that stands out to me. I didn't believe that for a second. It is a horrible reason for thinking that someone isn't scummy. Care to explain?

Hungry Joe: care to vote for someone?

ThAdmiral: who do you think is the scummiest replacement? They are all appearing quite protown, are you as skeptical as I am? Who do you think we should be pressuring, since dylan is going to be offline?

[Adel]

Honestly I don't want to change my vote though. I don't want to no-lynch, and at this rate it seems we will. Even though the general rule is that the longer the day the better for the town, there has to be some sort of limit, right?

Too long of a day will flush every power roleYou know a game has gone on too long when two players have claimed a power role, and neither of them are scum... of course you won't know that neither of them are scum until much later, when the Mafia(s?) is(are?) probably in a winning position.

Have a good weekend everyone, I'll talk to you on Monday

[Adel]

vote:curiouskarmadog

to stir the pot, and show that I am back.

Mos: thanks for the feedback on the graphic.

[Adel]

Oh, I think this bandwagon I started on Kate isn't going anywhere, and if I push for another, it may be obvious that I am trying to force a role-claim. I bet I can still get J-man the townie lynched though

[Adel]

Ask if anything is unclear, or if you want more clarification, or basically have any questions feel free to ask and I'll be happy to answer them.

Who is scummier in your book: curiouskarmadog or dylan?

[Adel]

Chickenshit. I don't think you are scum, but I do think you are a wimpy little coward who is afraid to play when things become a little difficult. What poor character.

Yes, this is name calling- but it isn't nearly as excessive as I would like it to be.

[Adel]

This dumbass almost always becomes the first lynch of the town and the mafia don't even have to push too hard for it; the town is more than happy to lynch the annoying bastard for them. Utimately, assholes like Dylan are an exercise in futility and frustration, but I still refuse to vote someone with only a 25% chance of being scum (because play as mystifyingly incompetent as this masks any attempts to get a true read on the situation).

This is the post I've tried a couple of times to write. Play which is that incompetent is not a scum tell for me, and it make me think that us lynching him has the same odds for success that picking a person at random would have.

[Adel]

If dylan is a townie who gets lynched today, I can see the possibility of scum warning against his lynch to look good, and I can see scum voting for him but with words of caution, and I can see scum pushing for his lynch. A lot of the posts on this page aren't adding a whole lot to the conversation.

Questions I would like to see everyone answer:

1. Should we lynch the town idiot?

2. Who else could be scum with the idiot if he is scum?

3. Who would be scum if he is not scum?

[Adel]

What information do we gain from lynching dylan today? We have nothing to go on from his lynch, so we just revert to everyone else we were attacking today. He is most likely not scum, and his lynch will not accomplish anything. I'd rather just request that he be replaced, because he obviously is not playing the game, nor does he have any wish to play. Even if we can't replace him, though, we can just ignore him for now, and he'll be lynched/vigged/nightkilled eventually.

QFT

J-man is still a candidate, but not much of one. It is interesting the pickemgenius just used similar warning against a dylan lynch that he did against a J-man lynch, which made MOS so suspicious of him in the first place. My vote remains on curiouskarmadog.

[Adel]

Why are you being so dismissive curiouskarmadog? The logic is there, just in previous posts. You are correct though, in addition to yourself and dylan, J-man and pickem are the other probable scum candidates.. mostly because your ruse to build a bandwagon on Kate in order to force her to claim failed. You will not fool the rest of the town for long.

[Adel]

the Villiage Idiot (a self-chosen role which can be easily abreviated as VI

LOL!!! You rock.

[Adel]

It sounds like a wiki page to me, if you can talk in really general theoretical terms which don't have any bearing on this ongoing game.

[Adel]

Well, I wrote this a week ago on page 14:

Starting a wagon on Kate doesn't appeal to me after J-man and dylan41985, I think it could just be another wagon on a weaker player. If accept the appearance of incompetence as a defense for two players, I may as well accept it for a third.

Which anticipated the VI problem, and extended it to cover kate and J-man. I don't think we should lynch the village idiot unless we are under real deadline pressure. I don't think we should attack the weak for being weak. Bullying is scummy behavior. Any decent player can put a spotlight on a weak player and let them hang themselves.

Lets take a look at your glass house:

327 you defend the townieness of replacements because they are replacements, and say

I am not so sure we should let J-man off the rope. In my opinion Kate and J-man are together.

328 you forward an attack on kate by linking her to J-man. In your next post, 343 you

misrepresent kate's factual correction

to a previous post by NN as being another J-man defense. Ditto for 345.
348 you continue the pressure on kate with

What? Finding out information for the town is not your play style? What kind of responsible townie are you? You dont ask questions in this game because you kow the answers? How as a town are we suppose to get one up on the mafia without asking them questions? If we dont ask questions or inspire conversation, then the town will no lynch or lynch improperly and the mafia can pick us off one by one...or maybe, you dont ask questions, because you do not want to draw attention to yourself? That indicates some sort of power role crippled with the fact she is acting quite anti-town (reasons previously stated in other posts) that spells S C U M.....

After that post I placed my vote on you. Too hyper-aggressive for my tastes.
352 is another attack on kate
NN points out that if the basis for ckd's attacks on kate depend on the guilt of J-man, then he should vote for J-man.
355 ckd agrees with NN
365 defends his bad logic regarding the innocence of replacements as being innocent
367 ditto
then a of posts about per messing up a vote count,
387 questions pickemgenuis' warning that dylan was at -1 lynch
392 FOS's molestargazer (MSG) for pushing for a dylan lynch, asks why J-man isn't guilty.
394 questions MSG some more
396 accuses Numenorean7 of setting him up for day 2 suspicion, neglecting to notice this is exactly the same kind of logic used to FOS MSG 4 posts before!
404 accuses me of not using logic
415 states that he does not support lynching the village idiot
420

well, I am sure we can go round and round about who we think is scummer. I admit I can not find much that proves that Dylan is pro-town, but I think he is just inexperienced, as indirectly and unintentionally proven by J-man (describing Dyaln's other games).

and agees that waiting for a dylan replacement is a good idea.
431 you attack me for not adding anything.

you pressured kate, hard and relentlessly, clearly attempting to establish a bandwagon based on nothing more than her defending J-man. Once your bandwagon clearly was unable to move, you poke around a little, accuse several players while revealing yourself to be a hypocrite, and finally you attack me.

You attacked kate for defending J-man, and ride her for pages
you FOS molestargazer for pushing for a dylan lynch
you attack Numenorean7 for setting you up for day 2 suspicion
you attack me for not adding anything to the debate.
When you began your attack on kate the wagons on dylan and J-man were basically over. You rode kate hard through many posts, which is how a bandwagon is started, and a claim is forced.

I am starting a bandwagon on you now. I've quietly voiced my suspicions for a while now, letting you post more, watching you flail about trying to discover who is a weaker player not who is a scummier player.

You have been hungry for another bandwagon, I hope you appreciate the irony that it is on you.

[Adel]

I wouldn't have a problem lynching Kate (as in, I don't consider her in the same category as J-man and Dylan), but I still believe pickem is the play today.

I did earlier, but she has seemed more articulate recently.

This whole statement is ridiculous. Quietly voiced? You are joking right? You have tried to get this bandwagon started for some time now. I am not hungry for another bandwagon, I just want to lynch scum. I am trying to discover weaker players? Really, by your own account I have “attacked” Mole, Num, and yourself? I don’t define either of the 3 as weaker players, do you? I think J-man and Kate are scum, do you think they are less scummier than Mole, Num, and yourself? Then how am I looking for weaker players? I am trying to find scum.

If you honestly thought that mole or Num were scum I think you would've pressed harder for longer. As it is, you take a little snipe, discover significant defenses, and move on down the list to the next target.

I think it is very interesting how you state over and over that you think J-man is scum, but haven't put a significant amount of time arguing that he is, pressing for his lynch, and debating the evidence that you think proves his guilt. I think you are scum rolefishing- is you are all about lynching scum were is your long well reasoned case for lynching J-man? Where is you PBPA of his posts? Why haven't you pushed and pushed until a bandwagon started on him.

And why does your attack on me reek of OMGUS?

[Adel]

I think you are scum rolefishing- is you are all about lynching scum were is your long well reasoned case for lynching J-man? Where is you PBPA of his posts? Why haven't you pushed and pushed until a bandwagon started on him.

EBWOP: I think you are scum rolefishing-

if

you are all about lynching scum

where

is your long well-reasoned case for lynching J-man? Where is you PBPA of his posts? Why haven't you pushed and pushed until a bandwagon started on him.

[Adel]

I looked back through your posts looking for when you laid out a case for why J-man is scum, and I came across this little gem:

Well, with Pick moving his vote to dylan we are indeed one away. Not sure why he is telling us to proceed with caution, when Pick a.) thinks Dylan is scum and b.) Proceeds to go post by post why Dylan is scummy. If he is scum don’t you want to vote him?

But I didn't find any case against J-man. Where did I miss it?

[Adel]

What I want to hear is your take on the game based on me not being scum.

I'm still waiting to hear why ckd thinks you are scum.

[Adel]

HungryJoe? What is your 2 cents?

MoS: do you have new evidence on pickmegenuis? I'm interested in hearing it.

My feeling is that within the group of Crub, dylan, pickem, and ckd we have at least 1 scum, and the odds are that we do. However, and with the exception of ckd, I can't see any of them being scum together. Which leads me to strongly suspect that there are scum among the people I have a relative pro-town vibe from.

Of the four primary suspects, this is my current ranking:
1. ckd
2. dylan
3. pickem
4. Crub

Barring a huge slip or earth-shattering insight, I am not interested in bandwagons on other players. I think it is mostly luck that a power role has not been outed yet, and I would like it to remain that way.

[Adel]

I'm not sure about the wall of words ckd just put up, and I' not sure what my response will be.

I smell blood. My instinct is to pick ckd's case apart point by minute point and slaughter ckd's with cold and crystalline logic, but that would create an even longer and more impenetratable wall of words.

The signal:noise ratio of this game is becoming a concern.

So I'll just sum up my conclusions.

1. I didn't see anything seriously scummy in the wall of words.
2. The only points he raised that I considered insightful was that I ignored J-man lurking for 150 posts, and that I've followed MoS's lead to a certain extent.
3. ckd's wall of words is a classic example of manipulating evidence to fit your conclusion. That is not a scum tell necessarily, but it is an invalid form of analysis. He did reach the conclusion that Crub and I aren't scum together in the middle of the wall, but he adjusts his evidence so that Crub and I are scum together by the end of the wall. Identifying MoS as scum was the only way he could establish a theory that would include both Crub and I as scum.
5. I am not sure that his bad logic is an example of scum making a case in his defense, or a townie who lack the internal intellectual honesty to fairly look at information and generate impartial analysis.

The one thing I am very sure of is that ckd didn't have this argument together when he promised that his analysis of Crub would be posted later in the weekend. He had already decided that Crub/J-man was guilty based on an early read of the first few pages, but hadn't ever stopped to reconsider his case. The wall of words is extemporaneous bullshit, but it may be sincere.

I know that I can build a case based solely upon that wall of words that would draw an extra vote to hammer ckd, but I will not. I do not think that the wall of words is a clear scumtell, and I am choosing to limit my case against ckd to the evidence that I honestly believe is scummy. I still want to see him lynched, but the ends do not justify the means, especially since I know that my mafia judgment is not nearly as good as my ability to communicate.

[Adel]

I have 2 completed games and MoS has 89, so I see how silly it might seem for me to criticize his playstyle, however...

Mos, if you know that pickem is scum, cool, but the rest of us still need to be convinced. I've read the words you've typed out but I don't see anything convincing in them. On my personal scumdar he is about as big of a blip as molestargazer or Num7, if I leave my opinion of your judgment out of it.

Would you lay out your case for pickem again before we lynch ckd or dylan?

[Adel]

MoS's last post wasn't up when I started my previous post... But I would still like to see the case against pickem laid out fully.

[Adel]

Ok, so you've said that Crub, dylan and ckd are not the pick of the day, which leaves pickem, right? So are you going to lay out your case for pickem or widen the net?

I'm still worried about a power role getting outed.

[Adel]

@MoS: Fine, I'll do the song and dance here. We don't

know

the size of the scum group. I just used "all three" because those were the same assumptions CKD was working under to formulate his theory. Has anybody ever actually caught scum by pulling that one out?

Saying that Mike is scum with Vinny isn't at all the same thing as saying that there are two and only two scum. ckd's theory never left out the possibility of there being a forth- I was watching for it. Your statement that there are 3 scum seems to infer that somehow you

know

that there are exactly three scum.

It is definitely a scumtell.

[Adel]

Did you notice that he did much the same thing with BOTH Dylan and CKD? With CKD's wagon quickly growing, he merely placed an FoS, adding to the suspicion, encouraging others that this was a generally accepted wagon without participating himself. If anything, I'm more confident in my vote now than before.

That tells me that the wagon on J-man probably had fewer of his scumbuddies on it than the wagons on dylan and ckd.... assuming that J-man, dylan and ckd are town and pickem is town.

[Adel]

I don't think my last post means what you think it does.

[Adel]

Pickem's behavior with large wagons:


J-man: 6 ( NabakovNabakov (fak), ThAdmiral, ckd (Tromboner), dylan41985, Mastermind of Sin, Adel)
pickem places a FoS

dylan41985: 5 (ThAdmiral, Kate, molestargazer, HungryJoe, J-man)
pickem placed a vote putting dylan at -1

curiouskarmadog: 5 (Numeronean7, Adel, Crub, NabakovNabakov, Kate)
pickem places a FoS. dylan's vote came after pickem's FoS


hypothesis: the J-man and ckd contain two scum partnered with pickem, while the dylan wagon only contained 1.

remember, fak=NabNab, carrotcake=Hun. joe, and danmonkey=Num7, Tromboner=ckd

Adel and NabakovNabakov are the two players who were on both the J-man and ckd wagons, but neither were on the dylan wagon. Could
Adel, NabakovNabakov, and pickem be scum together with dylan, and pickem was bussing dylan with -1 vote? Not likely, IMHO, since I know I'm town, but that is the easiest way to make the facts fit my hypothesis.

Just when I was thinking that this exercise was a waste of time, I noticed the relationship between dylan and pickem.

When I have time I'll read back through looking for instances where dylan follows pickem's lead. I think there may be a connection there, and it would make sense if our VI is scum that he would follow the lead of a stronger player.

[Adel]

I believe that pressure vote to gain information can be a good thing.

no...you are saying that because I say I think there is a group of 3 scum and dont mention a 4th, that I know something about the size of the mafia. Again you are putting words in my mouth. I never said there was exactly 3 scum...why do you constantly PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH!?

Lying is a scumtell

Actually I was fingering the other guy, and using you as the non-scummy counter-example. NabNab used the fact that you named three people in your theory as the precedent excusing him saying that there are 3 scum. I was waving the bullshit flag at

him

.

Why do you constantly think I put words in your mouth?

[Adel]

With dylan, you said the inconsistancies were glaringly obvious, yet he still hasn't ever adressed them, and you're totally convinced he's town, just because his playstyle (???). Well he plays like this as both town and anti-town.

This is an interesting statement.

pickem: where is a game we can look like where dylan plays like a VI when he is scum? You seem to know that he plays like this when he is scum, and I think it is possible that you are scum with him in this game, and you are frustrated that your VI scumbuddy is the VI. I think you already tried to bus him once, and even that didn't work, he is the VI who just won't die and you are afraid that he will out you entire crew.

unvote: curiouskarmadog

until this gets sorted out.

[Adel]

I NEVER put on FOS on J-man, but thanks for lying about that.

sorry. I though you had. I even have the freaking diagram to help me keep these things straight, but I didn't think I had to look at it to confirm you FoS on J-man.

[Adel]

Yeah, I did, he was/is scummier then hell, he still hasn't responded about all the massive inconsistencies that are "glaringly obvious". He does play like this as town, or anti-town, so playstyle now becomes a null-tell.

I'm not going to take you at your word on this. Exactly

where

have you seem him play like this as scum?

[Adel]

thanks. I stopped watching that game when I was NK'd night 1 by both scumgroups. I'll go take a look.

[Adel]

NabNab- all the same, it is a scumtell. I'm not FoSing you, I'm not voting for you, I just pointed out that you said something scummy. It is pretty much in isolation, and you did offer a reasonable explanation.. it is also a scumtell I look for.

I don't think I was reading too much into things, I was just trying to build a case against pickem. MoS is convinced that pickem is scum, but I am not convinced by the evidence he has brought up so I went looking for other evidence. I still may find it- I am not done looking yet.

Looking at the Open 23 Monks and Masons game, dylan wasn't the VI, he was a near-lurker. 15 posts in 8 pages to win the game! He didn't say anything scummy under my quick read.

J-man was also a townie in that game- and I drove the bandwagon that lynched him day 1. Not my proudest moment.

pickem: what about Open 23 do you think proves that dylan is the VI when he plays as scum?

[Adel]

unvote: carrotcake

vote: J-man

for seeming over-zealous to get to night time (maybe so he can kill me?)

Which was the 4th vote on J-man, and was his first post after being prodded.

unvote
vote: curiouskarmadog

Which put ckd at -1

I'm sold.

vote:dylan

metagaming rocks.

[Adel]

Newbie #387 townie VI lynched day 1. The game is still active, but take a look. 22 posts before day 1 ended, in less than 8 pages.

Mini 454 Candy Mafia Is also active, he was also the VI lynched day 1, was also town, but didn't post very much. 6 posts in 10 pages.

In this game he has 22 posts in 22 pages.

So his post activity doesn't correlate with whether or not he is scum. I don't know if I can comment of bandwagon activity in active games so I won't.

unvote: dylan

I am sucking today. I amost feel like I shouldn't have logged on

[Adel]

I'm feeling a little stuck. Now I don't think curious is scummy enough to lynch, nor pickem, nor dylan, nor crub. The odds are decent that we have scum in that group, but that doesn't mean that there has to be. On the other hand, wagons on players outside that group are increasingly likely to force a powerrole to claim, and that is bad. Additionally I don't know who I'd like to examine next. Num7 or NabNab or molestargazer.

If there was a player who had been on all four wagons, I would vote for her. The problem is, I am the only person who has been on all four wagons.

ThAdmiral: You are still convinced about dylan, right? Please make your case if you really are convinced.

MosS: You are still convinced about pickem, right? Please make your case if you really are convinced.

[Adel]

I see your point about the scum group. I thought 3 with 1 godfather or four with heavy powerroles were two equally possible scenarios. I didn't realize that lylo would come that quick.

While you are generating your case against dylan, please take a look at the three games we cited above. I think they establish that his actions are consistent regardless of his alignment.

[Adel]

This just isn't my day. Goodnight.

[Adel]

Finally even if he is a townie I think he is probably better off dead anyway. His tendency to just pile his vote on a growing wagon means the mafia need fewer votes to lynch someone, as they know they can probably rely on dylan to help them out.

Best case scenario: dylan is scum.
Best worse case scenario: dylan is a usless townie.

If dylan were a power role he likely would have claimed... or not, it is awfully hard to tell.

Does this idea appeal to anyone else?



I don't like this argument very much. If we lynch dylan and he is a townie, we lose a useless townie, but we don't really gain any information in exchange. On the converse side, if dylan is scum he is useless scum. If we lynch pickem instead we gain quite a bit of information either way. If a pickem lynch showed pickem to be town, my suspicion of MoS would increase by a fair amount, as just one example.

After comparing dylans actions in this game to his actions in other games, I concluded that his playstyle can be accurately described as "novice scum" because that is how most people perceive him. If anything, i think he acts scummier when he is town, so in a bizzare way the scummier he seems the more townish I think he is. That is so annoying that I almost want to lynch him just out of frustration and general principle.

[Adel]

Ah, screw it. Let's see where this goes.

unvote, vote: ThAdmiral

[/quote]

[Adel]

At what point will you two stop doing things together? Just because it is so obvious, does not mean it is not scummy.

Just because it is so obvious, does not mean it is not funny.

[Adel]

I will not further break down the logic since that seems to be a challenge you have issued to Adel.

I really don't have the patience for it, and this group of players seem to think a little more clearly (with the obvious exceptions) than other games I've been in. If his argument was doing harm I would break it down. Since I decided that his long post was basically townie (in spite of his argument) no harm means no foul.

[Adel]

@CKD: Sure I realize the difference. I'm not saying your argument was malicious or cooked up out of nowhere, I just don't beleive it because the conclusions you draw don't flow nicely from the facts (which you so nicely established).

Come on Adel. Lets see some crystalline logic here, if only for show. Betcha can't

I don't really see the point of putting effort into proving that he is a less than logical player. See Hanlon's razor.

Since this is becoming an issue I suppose that I'll have to.
def. not today though... this weekend perhaps?

[Adel]

There are other reasons as well.

Such as:

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX <----ThAdmiral's ability

XXXXXXXX <----TheAdmiral's contribution

X <----dylan's contribution (provided for scale)

I want to pressure you into adding a little more to the conversation. There are at least two more scum in addition to dylan, assuming you are correct about him, and you've sat for most of the day with your vote on the VI. Regardless of his alignment, we will gain little information on you if we lynch him- you could easily be scum wanting his fool of a partner to die before he ruins it for your team or you could be scum with a very defensible vote on a townie. You could also be an underachieving townie who is obviously capable of contributing a lot more to our town's success. If that last possibility is the case, would we really be worse off if we lose you, since you aren't doing much for us anyway? And if that last question really bothers you, and it should, remember that it ha the same foundation as your most recent rationale for lynching dylan.

[Adel]

I thought the idea of the game was to lynch who you thought was most likely to be scum.

I think our dylan provides a special case though. It is interesting that the only game of his that I know of where he wasn't lynched on day 1 was the game where he was scum. J-man was our day 1 lynch in that game, and he was mislynched for being a VI. I think our chances of hitting by lynching the VI are about 1:4, assuming 3 scum. Your evidence of his consists of him being an idiot. If you think he is useless as town, imagine the dismay of his partners if he is scum!

I'm keeping my vote on you

because

you lazily left your vote on dylan all day and put little effort in rooting out other scum.

[Adel]

Absurdest prediction: This day will not end until every player has been at lynch -2.

@Num7: female

@MoS: I thought your sudden 180 on pickem was pretty odd. What is your case against Num7? The connection you see between us is that I followed his lead in voting for ckd, right?

@TheAdmiral: it is really hard to keep my vote on someone who is so agreeable!

[Adel]

Why not me and molestargazer or me and NabNab or me and Kate? I am just wondering how the mind of MoS works.

[Adel]

unvote: ThAdmiral vote:Master of Sin

for power role hunting.

[Adel]

@Adel: I see where you are coming from saying mos is power role hunting (as he has switched his pressure target a number of times now), but you are taking it for granted that other people will follow him and pressure whoever his target is until they claim, which, for the most part, they haven't done.

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships. Of course there are players who don't mention each other. Does someone want to take the time to quantify how many of those 66 relationship could be described as "little interaction"? A bunch.

MoS's case against pickem was weak, and he didn't press it very hard. It did produce a whole bunch of reactions though, and some people didn't react very much at all. I think he is experienced enough to pick up on clues that the rest of us are likely to miss, and if his motivation is different from ours it would make sense why his case against pickem and his effort put in to support it made so little sense at the time.
Now he has a case against Num7 that is also weak and feebly argued. I think MoS is capable of generating a case against almost any player (lets see how well he does agaist me) strong enough to get them lynched. If MoS were town I think he would've figured out who was scum by now and presented a case, asked for and received the doc protect, and we would be well into day 2.
MoS is talented and experienced. He doesn't need actual claims to figure out who the power roles are, he just needs enough interaction between specific players.
I am pretty confident that MoS is scum- and that I stand a good chance of getting lynched for making this argument.

[Adel]

Like you didn't with Num7, myself and pickem?

You are the most experienced player, if you lead a bandwagon against scum revealing yourself to be very-protown you can almost bet that you will receive a NK unless you get a doc protect. With one VI and a couple other new players it wouldn't hurt to ask for the protection of a doctor, and even if you didn;t ask for it you would probably still receive it.

[Adel]

This isn't saying I'm positive MoS is town, but if shenanigans like that start happening, he pobably is.

Good warning. Do you think Curb's vote is an example of that?

ckd: my vote for pickem was an example of me following MoS's lead. I gave him the benifit of the doubt, and I was prepared to unvote if he came to lynch -1 without me being convinced.

MoS's posting has confused me for most of the game. From his early post declaring that I am definitely protown on, I've looked for an explanation. For a little while I decided that he was the cop, and he was collecting evidence, but it wasn't until he made a vote for Num7 that I figured out that he is scum rolefishing. My vote for ThAdmiral was a ploy to see who would attack me for my vote on ThAdmiral and not also criticize MoS.

What is the difference between a cop collecting evidence and a scum rolefishing? The cop is more interested in pressure after the bandwagon has formed- adding stress to the scum hoping for a slip, and the rolefisher is more interested in creating the framework for a bandwagon.

I do not think that I am ascribing scum like attributes to MoS. If he really thought pickem was scum pickem would be hanging right now. In my games I've led several bandwagons to lynch, I have a horrible record for success, but when I've been convinced that someone was scum the evidence that led me to that belief has always been enough to convince other people. Usually my target has been the VI- and a mislynch has been the result, which is why I am so weary of lynching weak players now. I would rather have saved this case against MoS until tomorrow, but another lesson from my games is that I am really likely to die night 1.

I do not think it is unfair to expect MoS to have identified scum by now if he were town. Look at some of his games, he is a great player. I don't claim that he should have 100% accuracy or anything, but he should've been convinced that he found scum and presented his case in a forceful enough way to produce a lynch long before now. He is not town, so his case against Num7 must be for rolefishing.

If his case against Num7 had been good, I would still be questioning his alignment, and I would have continued to follow his lead. I have no trouble giving a better player the benefit of the doubt- most of the time they will be town and as long as I am able to keep an open and skeptical mind I don't think it is a bad idea.

[Adel]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

[Adel]

my vote for pickem was an example of me following MoS's lead. I gave him the benifit of the doubt, and I was prepared to unvote if he came to lynch -1 without me being convinced.

- So you're saying it was basically a pressure vote?

Almost. I was willing to follow MoS's lead up until a point, thinking that he had picked up on something that I missed.

Did anyone notice how many times I asked MoS to present his full case against pickem?

Does everyone else realize that MoS's 61% victory record indicates that he is a very good player?

That MoS won the Cassandra award says that three years ago he was good at picking out scum, but not so good at convincing the town. Receiving that award would prompt any player to become more confident when he thinks he finds scum, and try harder to convince the town that he is correct. Three years later he claims that he still isn't any good at convincing the town, unbelievable: I do not believe it.

[Adel]

I've seen people asking in three or four different threads. Replacements List is the most recent place I remember seeing it.

[Adel]

I think MoS has had too many inconsitencies in his play to be explained away by scum hunting. He bussed J-Man heavily then called it off. He attacked Pickem, but went buddy-buddy when it's obvious his case wouldn't stick. He claimed early on Adel was pro-town, but has now decided flip on that too. When MoS posts, there is always an air of calculation about as if he's trying to draw the town this way or that. His recent case against Adel seals the deal, because it seems he just plumb ran out of scummy players he would be able to wagon, and had to set up a less than plausible case.

Notice that his original case centered more on Num7, although I was named as his likely scum partner. Notice how quickly changed his vote to me after I started attacking him.

I really like MoS's last couple of posts telling/asking people to vote for me. sn't it similar to how he acted towards pickem earlier? He concludes that someone is scum, then basically says "you read the posts and see for yourself why it is obvious" instead of presenting his case in a manner that would stand a chance of actually convincing many other people. I think he wants to arouse enough suspicion to force a claim, but not yield a mislynch. Remember that he wanted to set the president of claiming at -2 to lynch... I didn't consider that a scumtell until later when I became convinced that he was scum chasing the power roles. Remember when he encouraged us to beat the record of mafia 64? I think that he seriously wants this day to drag on for as long as possible.

[Adel]

I'm glad you unvoted him: I really didn't want to.

[Adel]

Welcome, Tarhalindur. At least you aren't replacing a player who was under a lot of suspicion, but I don't envy the task you have in front of you. Your vote may prove critical, no pressure though

[Adel]

You are right. It is like many players are already playing for a deadline. I fear that I may be ascribing him god-like powers, but I expect that MoS will not get lynched if he is given enough of a chance to build a case after he gets back. I think he is scum, but will prove to be very slippery for most of the game. However, I think giving Tar a chance to contribute before the end of the day is a good idea, and so I basically support letting the day stall until Tar and MoS get a chance to post.

FoS: Num7

because it just occurred to me that he may be scum buddying up to me, albeit in a very coy and subtle way.

[Adel]

MSG: it was something that occurred to me while I was thinking about the game. I wrote it down mostly to remind myself to look for it when I do my next read-through, but I am kinda hoping someone else will do the detective work first.

My though process went like this:

Assumed: Num7 is scum.

What are his actions so far during this day?
Intelligent postings of decent length posted less frequently than other players. Replaced a player I didn't have a read on. Voted for ckd before I did, and for seemingly good reasons. May have followed my vote for ThAdmiral (can't remember, don't have time to look it up. Seems to have agreed with most of my posts. Voted for MoS after I did.

Who are his scum buddies? He could be bussing MoS. MoS's attack on Num7 could have been a distancing tactic. ckd didn't lump him with me or Crub. Was he the one attacking Hungry Joe? Was it him or ckd that was attacking MSG earlier. Has he had any interaction with Katie?

How has he interacted with me? Nothing very direct. I think we've agreed on our evaluations of most other players. How often did his stance come before mine? Is he following my lead?

I would normally do a read-through to collect evidence but I don't have time right now. I usually issue a FoS when I have a hunch and a decent theory, but I haven't gone through the evidence throughly. My hunch against Num7 is party due to my conviction that MoS is scum: I was trying to figure out who MoS's scumbuddies are when I read those tells for the first time.

Does someone else want to do the initial detective work? I am still all about a MoS lynch in the meantime.

[Adel]

I think MeMe is dylan's sockpuppet. Replacing the mod with one of your alts has got to be considered cheating. Would someone report dylan/MeMe to the listmod?

[Adel]

Would it be sporting to declare this period the "Heckle dylan Intermission" and spend the next 10 pages or so

just

hazing dylan? It would up our page count without increasing the chances of any power roles getting outed.

[Adel]

Adel - Scummy. I don't like how she seems to post information without offering her own analysis of said information (see the pretty pictures she posted), nor do I like her "I could pick apart ckd's argument, but I don't feel like it" post. I'm also seeing a disturbing trend - Adel seems to ask for other people's opinions without offering any opinions herself, which reeks of scum trying to go with the flow.

I'm amazed that you didn't see opinion and original analysis in my 124 posts! My cases against ThAdmiral and MoS were out of the blue (and maybe out of left field) and I choose not to pick apart ckd's argument because I was afraid that it would get him lynched and I didn't want to see him get lynched. I've gotten quite a few players lynched on Day 1 who turned out to be scum, so I am more cautious now.
I'm always impressed when people view my graphics as scum tells. I am trying to figure out the most effective way to visually present information expressing every action in the game. The goal is to have a game "map" of everything that can be objectively expressed. I am a visual thinker, and I need a map to help me do analysis. Having a map should allow me to literally "see" a new class of scumtells, and I am going to keep that information to myself for as long as possible. I don't want the meta to adapt, especially since I haven't really figured out any good tells yet. I have a couple of possible ones, but I haven't been in enough games to judge how accurate they are. I should be a pretty good scum-hunter in a few months, until then I'm just doing the best I can.

[Adel]

I've gotten quite a few players lynched on Day 1 who turned out to be

scum

, so I am more cautious now.

Yeah don't wont to lynch those scum?

I've never been in a game where scum was lynched on day 1. Huge typo. Is that the typo you were talking about NabNab?

[Adel]

huh, pickem has pretty much fallen off my radar. Do you have evidence more recent than when the last wagon against him slowed down?

[Adel]

MoS: I'd like your opinion on something:

Assuming that both you and I are town, do you think Num7 could be buddying up to me?

At this point, who do you think could be buddying up to you?

[Adel]

Num7: I agree your last post. I'll answer your questions after MoS answers mine.

[Adel]

I'm not comfortable with the company I have on the MoS wagon anymore.

unvote

until I do a reread and a major reassessment of what I think is going on in this game.

[Adel]

I'm still reading. I got some sudden doubt. Cold feet. I was about to make a hard push on the MoS wagon and I realized that I am not

that

sure that he is scum. He's scummy enough for me to vote for, but not scummy enough to lynch. I don't have a good case on anyone else, I just don't. I rereading, looking for one. Once I have one, I'll let you know. However, I do not believe in issuing a play by play as I do my reread- I don't think it is a good idea.

dylan is the VI, I consider his actions to be random. Num7 I've bought as town since he joined in. I haven't examined his posts in a critical way.
It is hard for me to keep my dislike for ckd from influencing my perception of him as scum. I was never very serious about ThAdmiral being scum, since I've basically always read him as scum- I did poke him that one time but he didn't react in a scummy way from what I could tell. Basically, I'm critically challenging all of my views on all of the players in this game. It will take me a little while. I've never voted on a wagon that lynched scum when playing as town before, I'd like this vote to break that nasty streak. It matters to me.

[Adel]

I think Num7's apparent lack of understanding the second time around is just another mark that he's scum who answered for her the first time but took the first opportunity to try and get in our good graces by jumping on her for a similar action.

I'm listening, but I am not yet convinced. Could you expand on this post for me?

[Adel]

game is starting to slow down, or is it just me?

still contemplating Adel's removal of a vote...still think she is scummy...where there any other reasons Adel, that you removed your vote, other than not liking Dylan and Num as voting partners, does that mean you feel like they are scum now? You dont think MoS is scummy?

My last reread was inconclusive, but made me realize that I

don't

have a strong case against MoS. I think ckd may be more scummy, and Num7 has said some

really

scummy things in his last six posts or so. I don't put much stock in late day sudden scumminess though. Out of 30-some pages three are really scummy- MoS would obviously disagree on this point but that is the number of posts that I think are scummy. I don't understand the case against Kate. Is it a sincere case?

I also took a hard look at my track record of voting for scum on day 1 (never have) and i took into consideration how much time i have for Mafia right now. I think it would be

anti-town

of me to put a lot of thought into my vote. I'd rather vote at the last minute, and base my vote on intuition alone, but I'm probably better off just doing it now.

vote: Curiouskarmedog

I'll only unvote him if he claims. There isn't a wagon on him, and I don't expect him to become a realistic candidate for lynch. I am not asking him to claim- there is no danger of him getting lynched. I do think he is scum though, more than I think Num7 or MoS is. I would vote no-lynch if that wasn't so anti-town in the grander scheme of things.

I unvoted MoS because there was a realistic chance that he is town or even a power role, and he was in danger of getting lynched. Now I still think he is a little scummy, but I think ckd is scummier. Also, I don't think I'm a person that other people should be listening to late on a day 1.

I have no business leading a wagon this late in a day 1.

[Adel]

Um, I unvoted MoS, and parked my vote on someone who I think is scummy but has no chance of getting lynched. I was just trying to take my vote out of the game for the rest of the day. I don't think I should be pushing a wagon, and I don't think I'm any good at identifing scum on day one. How this is getting so mischaracterized boggles my mind. I made an unorthadox decision that I feel will help the town.. no way was I rolefishing, I was just stating the only possible scenario that would make me change my vote. I said that so that you wouldn't have to worry about me throwing my vote in like a hammer at deadline.

I really do think ckd is scum, btw.

[Adel]

Ok, assume Num7 is scum and Kate is scum. Obviously, Num7 tried to answer for Kate (something that scum often do when they think their scumpartner(s) slipped up and isn't experienced enough to keep from digging the hole deeper), in order to explain away what she had said. However, he starts getting attacked for his actions, and Kate doesn't really get off the hook from it. Therefore, when she "slips up" again, he takes the opposite approach in order to try and gain some credibility from it. In addition, this sets him up to be able to join a Katewagon if it starts to form, since he's no longer defending her.

Assume Num7 is scum and Kate is town. Num7 answers for her, both to curry her favor due to the fact that he's on her side, and to seem "helpful", perhaps. This, of course, backfires, because Kate doesn't get off the hook and whatnot as stated above. Therefore, she slips up again and he does the same thing to get in position to vote her if the opportunity comes up.

Assume Num7 is town. Num7 answers for Kate because he understands her, but fails to understand whether or not she is claiming cop in the second "slip up". The logic of how this is at all possible completely escapes me.

QFT this is the kind of clarity I was expecting from MoS far earlier in the game.

In the only game I've been in which had a similar situation (Mafia in Theoville, a scum win where I was town) The actual cop was outed by a fakeclaiming scum cop in a very similar way on day 1. I know that anecdotal evidence is crap, but if a post like MoS's had been posted in Theoville I think town would've won.

I'm tempted to go ahead and take back what I said earlier and vote for Num7 and push for his wagon, but I still have little faith in my ability to pick out scum.

[Adel]

Oh my god, So you think I'm scum because I was scum in another game...I WAS SUPPOSED TO DO THAT! I have to play the same as I usually do! Why don't you look up the other game I was cop in? Newbie 341? My playstyle was the same too.

:shrug:

[Adel]

I don't think i'm giving up so much as recognizing that it is a bad idea for me to argue a case when I don't really believe that I have a case others should believe in, in this game especially. I've only finished four games, and one thing is clear: my ability to persuade other players is much greater than my ability to detect scum. I am totally confident in my ability to get people to lynch who I want them to: I am not confident in my chances of them voting for the right person. If there was a good player in this game that I trusted, I would probably be following their lead right now.

[Adel]

ADEL!

I would like you here your comments on my accusations for post 947.

Mainly:

I am not even sure where to start.

vote: Curiouskarmedog

I'll only unvote him if he claims. There isn't a wagon on him, and I don't expect him to become a realistic candidate for lynch. I am not asking him to claim- there is no danger of him getting lynched.

this really pisses me off on many different levels.

1- I have never seen ANYONE threaten to not remove a vote unless someone claims and then say I am not asking him to claim i nthe same post.

2- Is this rolefishing? Tell me Adel, how would knowing my role right now help the town AT ALL? How would knowing my role help mafia? Oh yeah, for a f-ing NK. You are scum and I completely certain now. Why else would you want to know my role? I remember a.

Post 651

unvote: ThAdmiral vote:Master of Sin

for power role hunting.

It is ok for you to fish, but not MoS? Isnt that why he got this vote?

Let me get this straight, you know that I am currently leading to be hung. And the only way you will remove your vote is if I claim...you DO understand that you are asking me to claim Day 1, right? HOW DOES THIS HELP THE TOWN? And why is it ok for you to rolefish but not MoS?

dude, you have two votes just like MoS and me. I don't trust you motivation in crying about this.

[Adel]

Despite the fact that much can change in a week, CKD broaches a good point.

Adel, either give up completely or start playing. Don't go around being half-assed and placing a vote you refuse to adequately defend. No matter what the rationale is, it's anti-town, and because your rationale is so poor, I'm inclined to see it as scummy.

Though the thought of a re-read makes me wince, one might be in order before deadline to re-consider Adel.

Fine. ckd is scum, y'all should lynch him. I want him hung because I don't trust his playstyle and the way he consistently overstates what his case is. I read his post and I can picture an aggo 15 year old male chugging mt dew and staring at the screen in a dark room as he types away. I expect that he plays in a similar way when he is town, but his vote jumps around a hell of a lot more because he isn't as concearned about appearing inconsistent. I think this was best displayed when he announced that had figured out that MoS, Crub and I were scum together. He was convinced that he had us right. What I attributed to a mere set of flawed arguments at the time, I now consider very scummy.

I don't have any reason to think any particular person is more likely than the others to be partnered with him (which is why I don't trust a good player like you in this game, NabNab) I see no reason to think that MoS is more likely to be scum with him than anyone else. MoS is my second best guess for scum right now, but with him it is much more of a guess than anything else.

I'm not giving up: this is where I'm at, and I don't have a clue what to do. Don't lynch me, of course, but I'm not too worried about getting lynched, or NK'd for that matter. I expect that I'll have a better understanding of the game tomorrow, and I expect to survive to contribute. I just don't really know who the best person to lynch right now is. If the pure odds of ckd being scum is 1:4 than the think the odds of ckd really being scum is about 1:3

Not betting odds. I've put the time in, I put the effort in, but I do not think I cracked this day 1, and I don't think I am going to.

[Adel]

ADEL!

I would like you here your comments on my accusations for post 947.

Mainly:

I am not even sure where to start.

vote: Curiouskarmedog

I'll only unvote him if he claims. There isn't a wagon on him, and I don't expect him to become a realistic candidate for lynch. I am not asking him to claim- there is no danger of him getting lynched.

this really pisses me off on many different levels.

1- I have never seen ANYONE threaten to not remove a vote unless someone claims and then say I am not asking him to claim i nthe same post.

2- Is this rolefishing? Tell me Adel, how would knowing my role right now help the town AT ALL? How would knowing my role help mafia? Oh yeah, for a f-ing NK. You are scum and I completely certain now. Why else would you want to know my role? I remember a.

Post 651

unvote: ThAdmiral vote:Master of Sin

for power role hunting.

It is ok for you to fish, but not MoS? Isnt that why he got this vote?

Let me get this straight, you know that I am currently leading to be hung. And the only way you will remove your vote is if I claim...you DO understand that you are asking me to claim Day 1, right? HOW DOES THIS HELP THE TOWN? And why is it ok for you to rolefish but not MoS?

dude, you have two votes just like MoS and me. I don't trust you motivation in crying about this.

"crying"? WHY WONT YOU ANSWER THE QUESTION? WHY ARE YOU ROLEFISHING...this is my third attempt to get you to answer this.

i wasn't rolefishing, I wasn't asking to to claim. Either you are a twit or you ar scum, I say you are scum. Do you honestly believe that you will hang with two votes?

[Adel]

dude, you have two votes just like MoS and me. I don't trust you motivation in crying about this.

also untrue..MoS has one vote...AND if everything remains constant, if I have 2 votes "just like" you...I hang, not you

Didn't MoS have two votes when I voted for you though? Do you really think that you would be the person to hang if the vote were held today?

[Adel]

I meant that my vote is static, it isn't going anywhere... but there is a possibility that you end up claiming for some reason, and if you did I would unvote you. That is the only scenario where i would unvote you, so I felt it was worth mentioning.

[Adel]

I thought I got there first. I didn't bother responding because I am used to ignoring the more bombastic things that he says.

I don't understand how he would think he is in real danger, or why he would feel that it is necessary to claim right now. ckd: I'm not trying to lynch you.

[Adel]

Mod: I second the deadline extension request

unvote:ckd vote:nolynch

nolynch is not a scummy vote unless someone else also votes nolynch. I will unvote nolynch only if he claims, otherwise my vote is staying here until the deadline.

[Adel]

I think a longer day is better for town. There isn't much consensus as to who should be lynched, and I don't like the odds if we end up with a couple of players being able to control the outcome of this day.
I unvoted ckd because it was becoming a huge mess. Who else do you think I should vote for?

[Adel]

Actually, I think a shorter day would result more likely result in my lynch, which I know would be anti-town. I wasn't think about the role-fishing thing, I had pretty much forgotten about that. Good catch though.

It looks like I will be on defense from here on out.


And ckd is still my best guess for scum. If Num7 and ckd are scumbuddies, does 1011 make much sense to you? Distancing? Prepping a bus if later deemed necessary?

[Adel]

if adel gets lynched and is town I will go after him. I don't care if that is setting up "chain-lynches", I'm going to do it anyway.

This was a minor blip on my scumdar: like ThAdmiral may be distancing himself from ckd. Nothing major, just a minor blip.

TAdmiral: ummm... would you mind switching the order of that lynch chain? Tomorrow would work out much better for me than today. I'd prefer to live, if it is all the same to you.

[Adel]

I think everyone should choose between me or ckd for the lynch.

[Adel]

EBWOP: Adel is apparently case in point, to an extent. I believe she said she had never been lynched D1, yes? That's quite an achievement, and it shows somewhat that she looks protown when she plays. However, she also admitted that she has never been able to lead a lynch on scum D1 either.

I was quicklynched in like 6 hours in one game. Otherwise, I'm really tired of working my ass off only to find out the person we lynched was a townie.

[Adel]

I should also mention that in my "pile of crap" I showed how Adel followed MoS leading on most everything, and after MoS beginning attacking Adel and Adel at MoS...Adel immeidately changed up her playstyle in this game.

I freely admitted that I was following MoS. No big discovery there. No major sleuth-work.
I changed my playstyle after the break when MoS came back from Tespivile (or whatever it was called) and I lost confidence in my wagon on him. I unvoted MoS even though that put me on the line for lynch. The big playstyle shift: full of confidence then little scum-hunting confidence.

[Adel]

Yea, that particular post wasn't meant to attack you or anything, Adel. I was just using your past games as evidence of my theory stated in the post before.

We must band together and lynch Adel before it's too late!

I am have some second thoughts for dropping off of your wagon when you post like this. Are you giving serious consideration to ckd and ThAdmiral?

[Adel]

People I am nearly 100% certain are not scum:

NabNab

People that are probably not scum:

Tarhalindur
dylan

People who looked protown, then turned scummy:

Adel
Num7
Crub

People who looked scummy, then turned protown:

ckd
pickem

Unknown:

ThAdmiral
Molestargazer
Kate

Disclaimer: These categories are generalized and may not fully reflect the entirety of what has happened in the thread. I'm just letting you know where I stand.

These views? These that you posted over a week ago? So ThAdmiral is still an unknown and ckd is protown?

I think you are acting.

[Adel]

This reading and posting and voting for the same person at the same time is scummy.

FoS: Num7

unvote:nolynch vote:pickemgenius

I really don't like this ckd wagon suddenly.

[Adel]

by my count ckd has 5 votes. 7 will lynch before deadline. easy math. would someone mind unvoting ckd?

[Adel]

I have no idea who to vote for, but Tar is not the lynch for today and that was an OMGUS vote, so

Unvote

I won't be able to post again today, but out of the three, I'd say curious is probably the scummiest. Everyone's said this already but when he's under pressure, he acts pretty scummy.

pickem is picking a good time to leave.

pickem, kate, and num7, and ThAdmiral make up my current suspect list. The wagon on ckd got really big really quickly. fueled by scum, no doubt.

I've been sucking as town lately- ckd and MoS were both town in this game, so my flawless record of suspecting townies of being scum across many games is still intact. not something to be proud of, at all.

[Adel]

Oh, and before someone takes the time to track down the post I made earlier- I am afraid that I may have tipped of the scum that MoS was the cop. I made a post where I said something to the effect of "I thought MoS was the Cop but now I think he is rolefishing". I hope that didn't clue the scum in, and they Nk'd MoS because he is MoS and not because of anything I said. I know this is WIFOM territory, but I thought I would just voice my own error and save everyone a little time. I would think that post of mine was a scumtell if I were another player.

vote:Kate

because pickem is on vacation, and I don't like how she coppied other people case against ckd almost word for word when she made her vote on him. i am convinced that there is scum on the ckd wagon. Totally convinced.

[Adel]

unvote

sorry, how did I miss that? I

knew

you voted for him!

[Adel]

I checked molestargazers' profile, and his last post anywhere was July 30. This is apparently his only active game. Does anyone know if he is an alt? Lurkers make me nervous.

[Adel]

Adel, could you do another diagram like you did in 307 showing all the votes of D1? I know it would be a lot of work, but you say you like doing it, and I think a retrospective of the D1 votes would be very helpful.

I need to do a reread anyway. 45 pages. Good lord. It will take me a while- several hours.

[Adel]

Adel, could you do another diagram like you did in 307 showing all the votes of D1? I know it would be a lot of work, but you say you like doing it, and I think a retrospective of the D1 votes would be very helpful.

I need to do a reread anyway. 45 pages. Good lord. It will take me a while- several hours.

It isn't going to happen today. Period, as much as I would like to finish. I'm about 20% done because some stuff came up. I'll be able to get back to it tomorrow, but I'm not promising that I'll finish tomorrow.

[Adel]

Scum could have pushed the wagon, but it's much more likely that scum hopped.

QFT... however would the last players be more likely to be scum than the middle players on the wagon? I'm not sure.

Do the rest of you really think it would help if I finish my graphic showing all of the voting and FOS's from day 1? It is freaking tedious to do that many pages, and there is so much information that I'm not sure that it will tell us anything. I think it would work better if I made an animation from it, where each few frames is a post. 4 posts/sec would make a 4 min animation. Too long? It wouldn't be much more tedious than the graphic, and I think it would work better to communicate what happened yesterday.

[Adel]

nah, a mepg would let people hit pause, ff, rewind, and click to where in the animation to skip to.

I think it would look a little like a kalidescope. It depends on how much I make the avatars move around as the day progresses.

[Adel]

I'm looking forward to MoS replacing msg. I hate how active players are often the first to be nk'd while lurkers usually slip on through to day 3 and beyond.

[Adel]

On the other hand, we now know that MoS of yesterday was town, and so if he is town again we not only get a really strong player back into the game (I am still convinced of MoS prowess, even if I did use it against him incorrectly yesterday) but we also get to find out who he investigated (but sadly not the result) and probably quite a few other insights.

[Adel]

In other words, I'm happy to take the 2:3 odds of him being town.

[Adel]

On the other hand, we now know that MoS of yesterday was town, and so if he is town again we not only get a really strong player back into the game (I am still convinced of MoS prowess, even if I did use it against him incorrectly yesterday) but we also get to find out who he investigated (but sadly not the result) and probably quite a few other insights.

So you think MoS is a strong pro-town player, despite the fact that he pushed for your lynch. Are you saying he was right about you?

And I wouldn't be too surprised if he continued to push for my lynch and turned out to be scum a second time. It is perfectly conceivable to me that he would be dead wrong about me yet still be a valuable asset to the town. Since he was the cop, I'm sure he had suspicions that he didn't give voice to (waiting for the investigation). I want to know what they were. Also, I wasn't lynched yesterday, so I suspect that he didn't really want to lynch me.

[Adel]

Let me put it another way then, do you really think that Per will be able to get another decent player to replace in? I think we got luck with Num7 and NabNab, but we are at 46 pages, which is way over 300 printed pages. Any replacement player would need to read a novel's worth of words just to have read every word, let alone have some original insight. Maybe Jalyn would be a good replacement, but I can't think of anyone else.

[Adel]

I was reading back through the earlier bandwagon on ckd, and I think I should point out that I said that I could pick apart ckd's case, but I choose not to because I no longer thought he was scum. Then a little later, after the ckd wagon had collapsed, people (I don't remember whom) started challenging me to pick apart his case, and I think I said I would, and then I never got around to it. Do you think it would be worth looking back to figure out who was pressuring me to pick apart ckd's case? Do you think it would be a scumtell? I'm not sure.

I'm not very eager to do very much until MoS or someone else replaces msg. All of us should be in the middle of our re-reads, and at least for me msg is still a blank. I would like more information on that player, and I would like to interview MoS.

[Adel]

Would a replacement have to read the whole thread? It seems to me the last 20 pages or so would be sufficient.

WTF! Red Flag!

[Adel]

What isn't in those 20 pages that is in the rest of the game? Or should the question be phrased the other way around?

[Adel]

ABR- are you out to lynch me in

every

game we are in together?

[Adel]

(shrug) one of these days I won't find you scummy >.<

(shrug) or one of these days I'll actually be scum. If you succeed in lynching me today, and you turn out to be town, will that make it the forth or fifth game in a row where we are both town and you get me lynched? I'm loosing track.

[Adel]

(shrug) I have good reasons this time.

Thanks for replacing in, BTW. Would it help if I did a voting diagram for all of day 1? I've been putting it off, but I'll actually be motivated to finish it if you think it would help you catch up.

[Adel]

Cool, that gives me an excuse for not doing it.

[Adel]

Oh and I forgot to mention her lynch the lurkers scum tactic.

Which I've totally used in this game. I've

really

pushed for lurkers to be lynched. Over and over and over again. [/sarcasm]

I asked you because we needed a replacement and I prefer to play with active players. I also asked a couple of other players, Guardian and Jalyn to replace for the same reason. Plus, after loosing a Newbie game where you were the cop and I was the doc I thought to would finally be open to working with me, or at least you wouldn't try to auto-lynch me again. I was willing to take 2:3 odds of us having the same alignment in this game if you replaced in.

One of there days we'll be scum together in a game, and you not getting me lynched will be a scumtell against both of us.

I started PMing Pickem about personal stuff after this game started when I found out that he is straight-edge. I used to be straight-edge, and he and I share quite a few lifestyle values. We don't drink, for instance, and we are both anti-corporate. Plus we are both from the same part of the country. He is from Nebraska and I'm from Colorado. So when you said

YOU THOUGHT !? Who the fuck are you to make decisions for the town ? To shut someone up and end the day preemptively ? To fucking say that you were lying...? Oh bloody hell...lol I'm getting carried away.

Adel, your supposed to be SMART. How did you suppose you would ever get away with this diabolical scheme ?

in the post game, I wasn't surprised that he stuck up for me. I think he knows I would do the same for me. That, and all he said was

YOU THOUGHT !? Who the fuck are you to make decisions for the town ? To shut someone up and end the day preemptively ? To fucking say that you were lying...? Oh bloody hell...lol I'm getting carried away.

Adel, your supposed to be SMART. How did you suppose you would ever get away with this diabolical scheme ?

Ummm...

If this game isn't over then feel free to delete this but...


Take a step back...

Seriously...

I have no idea why he was reading the game, I didn't ask him to. I don't know his alignment in this game.

[Adel]

Also, ABR, I hope you remember making this post in that game:

And I think it is scummy that you aren't even trying to talk me out of my vote- as if you

know

that I have the opposite alignment from you (because you are scum, and you are sure that your fakeclaim will keep you from being lynched and you are pleased that I just increased my own chances of getting mis-lynched.

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about your alignment right now. Your too OMGUSsy to reason with, as demonstrated in various games, so I'm not going to try convincing you to unvote me. Instead, I'm going to try to convince the town to lynch you, how's that ?

reading your post at 1197 gave me a severe case of déjà vu.

Okay, I have some metagaming evidence that Adel and Pickem are scum together....first, there was that one time when pickem jumped in the middle of one of our games to defend Adel. That doesn't make sense for him to watch Adel's game unless they are tied, right ? And I lynched Adel in the other game pickem was in, so this is definitely the game they are mafia together.

By using similar "logic" (Gambler's Fallacy) I could conclude that this is the game you are scum in.

[Adel]

As far as I know, Guardian thinks I am a crappy player. Are you clued into something I am not aware of? Since Jalyn was the townie player that gave me a victory in Friends and Enemies as scum, who is that a metagame tell against me?

[Adel]

I perfectly understand that I may be alienating everyone else, but its like I was seeing the matrix. I'm seeing things in you that they can't see. I could try and explain certain things, but

they would just seem unbelievable or unsubstantial

that would just be bullshit, heaping loads of it

.

There. I fixed it for you. [/joke] [/kinda] [/ok, it is a joke based on truth]

[Adel]

I was a cop in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

odds of the three of them being innocent are better than 50-50 after my weighting for scumminess is factored in.

1 in 2 = 50% for first scum
3 in 5 = 60% for second scum
.5x.6=.3
TF original odds were 30% of me being right assuming I am Townie (is my setup for the math correct?)

My wild ass guess after my analysis is factored in is in the neighborhood of 55%-60%

Obviously your odds should be different.

Dogmom:

I had a similar experience reading through mneme's posts individually. When I first replaced I read through the thread in chronological order first, and I though he was scummy. I think it is just his tone, or maybe an anti-authority quirk of my personality. Now he is in my bottom three for scumminess.
Did you play mafia before you joined this forum? Which of your completed games did you learn the most from?[

mneme & DogMom:

If you have the time, let's talk some theory:

"What I've found to be more helpful than 'make your scumtheory first, then go look for evidence' is the PBPA that just looks at what a person posts, their comments, their votes and their overall behavior."
But don't you need a theory o' scum to filter signal from noise? Esp. when it comes to evaluating behavior, the criteria you choose to use is a based upon a scum-theory. The TSSF is when you develop a theory based upon the evidence you are looking at, when all you have is a hypothesis which needs to be falsifiable and tested in order to become a theory. I am not trying to split hairs over the definition of "theory," I am trying to determine common failures in thinking that leads to a townie lynch of townie.

I like mneme's approach of trying to model and classify the behavior of lurking. I am going to use his definitions in future games I play as a starting point.

Just ignoring the meta in any game will not make it go away. The key is to understand the current state of the game, and in which direction it is changing. A larger game meta-theory I agree with holds that transparency in the creation of successful meta-tactics mostly benefits the creators. Transparency enables a greater rate of transmission to other players until it is "common wisdom" and the creator will have a perspective that greatly aids in identifying successful counter-tactics emerging in the meta game. WIFOM can be an accurate argument (even though it a common wisdom scum-tell here) because many recursive models are accurate. Each permutation will have less penetration, and that rate of decay in influence can be estimated.

Lets take lurking as an example. Here is a first-stage model for the meta game:
S1. Lurking benefits a scum because the less they post the less likely they are to err. This tactic will occur to 100% of scum players.
T1. Lurking is a behavior typical of scum, lynch the lurker. ~95% of town players in newbie games.
S2. Lurking will lead to a scum lynch, so don't lurk when scum, post instead. ~93% of scum.
T2. Scum are too smart to lurk. ~85%
...
S_n. Townies know that scum will not lurk T.F. lurking is a good idea. ~((-A*e^((S_n-1)-h)+k)*100)% of scum for some values of A, h and k
T_n. Scum will know that lurking is a good way to hide, T.F. lynch the lurker is a good idea. ~((-A*e^((T_n-1)-h)+k)*100)% of townies for some value of A, h and k.
The sum of all cases give you the odds of a particular behavior on a continuum between top poster and least poster for scum. I feel confident that in a game of seven players the bell curve distribution will peak between 4th and 6th most active poster.

Once the constants are figured out, the type of behavior recommended by the model becomes the input for a second-stage model. The creators of the original model will have in edge in designing an accurate second model.

Therefore, recursive arguments can be solved, and WIFOM is not always an err in judgment. Of course, each game setup is different, play styles differ from player to player, and there are countless other variables to be taken in consideration, and even an accurate model is only true with a large sample size of games.

To determine if lurking is a scum tell in any specific game, there will be a predictable percentage chance that it is, based upon analysis of past games. The graph of the accuracy of the model against time yields an accurate depiction of the state of the meta-game, & informing the creators how to offset the odds of the model being right in future games. This is how some people make money off of the stock market by day trading despite a transaction cost for each trade they make.

I think using mathematical models to predict the chances of a behavior being a scum tell would be very useful, and could lead to elite play. I wish there was a place that tracked player performance so I could study mafia the way I've studied MTG and chess in the past.

Another problem I have with being dismissive of WIFOM is based on my experience (many years) in chess. Being able to answer "But if I do this he can do that" through 1.5 to 3 moves is essential tactical play. Strategy in chess is oven abstract pattern recognition (my pawns in this shape is preferred against his pawns in that shape in King-Rook-Knight vs. King-Rook-Bishop endgames) which in a way is the sum of countless resolved WIFOM arguments. Otherwise it would be impossable to know that 1.a4 is worse than 1.e4 or about nine other first moves for white.

Because this theory of the meta-game is a WIFOM argument, I doubt many will believe it can be true or useful. Do you?

Everyone else:

With only three of us posting actively, I am worried about a mis-lynch. Get out of the lurk people! We only have a little over 24 hours to go! Lurking right now is really anti-town behavior, which will carry over into Day2.

I was also a cop in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5472

Adel is indeed acting differently then a few pages ago. Plus, I was not aware Adel was a She. A rational girl? Awesome.

How does this claiming thing work? In that all the role PMs are posted on the first page, how does claiming help any?

If I claim that I'm a Townie, I can't communicate at night or outside this thread, and I win when the mafia die, how does this change the situation? FeRnAnDo will still suspect me just as much...

Thanks for the compliment. Since I'll hit 30 in a few months I don't think I qualify as being a "girl" anymore- in my experience girls are almost never rational, and I was no exception.
There is a 50% chance that one of is a cop, and a 50% chance that one of us is a doctor. Both are called power rolls. Power rolls don't want to reveal themselves: if they get exposed they will almost surely die. However if they are about to get lynched, claiming is better than the alternative of dying immediately. Town players will almost never vote to lynch a player that has claimed to be a power roll, and for that reason scum when facing an immediate lynch will often lie and say they are a power role. Regular Townie players when facing a lynch are often tempted to lie for a variety of reasons, like to draw the night kill, in addition to the normal reason of not wanting to hang. It is pretty much an article of faith on this forum that when a Townie lies in that position he is making a huge mistake. I don't have enough experience to know if that is true, but

all

of the good players I know of think it is. It seems like it is also always a mistake for a power roll to lie and claim that they are just a normal townie. Scum facing a lynch will also often claim Townie, which seems like a common move.

Assuming that all of the above is true, these are the rules for claiming:
1. Only claim if you are in very real danger of being lynched very very soon.
2. If you are a Townie, tell the truth about your role.
3. If you are scum, lie. Either choose a power role or claim normal townie.

These are some other guidelines I've picked up:
1. Regardless of your alignment, don't speculate about who is a power role. If someone claims to be a power role definitely speculate on if they are telling the truth or not.
2. Remember that if you are town you do not want other players to claim, but if you are scum you do want other players to claim.

IC's: did I do a decent job of summing all of that up? I may be missing something, so if I am please point it out.

I was a normal townie in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 75&start=0 but I didn't use any numbers or equations, but I only made 27 posts before being NK'd


I was a vig in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 53&start=0

Wow. You really are gunning for me, aren't you. No wonder townies so often lurk giving cover to the lurking scum: play as aggressive as your's suppresses participation. Less information = less basis for lynch votes = greater % of a mis-lynch. WTG.

I also chased lurkers in that game

12 pages in 7 days so far... will we need more than 24 pages to lynch someone? It is just a mini.

Could the rest of the town please vote? If someone gets to -3 or -2 to lynch, then don't, but we can at least use our votes to pressure some content out of those we consider may be scum.

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

[Adel]

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

Liar.

[Adel]

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

Liar.

[Adel]

once again you've gotten me physically furoius in a game. you are purposefully misrepresenting what happened in a previous game as part of a metagame "tell" against me, and you think you can get away with it. I'm really really steamed. i almost don't care if you're a townie, i'm really frustrated at you mislynching me. it has happened too many times know, you make posts where you sound like you have me figured out and i get lynched for it. you choose Aimee over me for the lynch in the game where i was actually scum and i won because of it. get over it.

[Adel]

What, so my mafia M.O. is pretending to get upset and instead playing you like a fool like I did in Friends and Enemies?

[Adel]

to answer your question Crub, I am not dismayed.

[Adel]

I also noticed how Dylan jumped in to defend Adel. This struck me as uncharacteristic. He doesn't defend anyone much (other than himself, of course).

Dude, he hasn't sounded that

coherent

so far in this game. Talk about uncharacteristic. Would his playstyle make sense if he were an SK? Is our VI just a master SK playing dumb like he is staring in The Legend of Drunken Master? This whole VI idea is messing with my head. I wish we had a cop investigation on him.

[Adel]

Yes I am saying if we don't lynch him today we should lynch him tomorrow, just because he plays consistently scummy.

The only thing that he has going for him at this point is MoS's insistence that Dylan was town.

At some point he is something that we are going to have to deal with. I hope I get lynched or NK'd before the game comes down to some townie deciding if dylan or someone else is scum. I don't think he should be lynched today or tomorrow though, unless that is end game.

Dylan had the same playstyle in another game with me where he won as scum. It seemed to work for him there as well.

Is VI a tactically legitimate playstyle?

dylan: are you an alt? which gifted player are you an alt of?

[Adel]

pj?

[Adel]

~ 10 alive
~ 3 or 4 scum
~ 3 scum would be one group (usually)
~ 4 would be two groups (less typical than 3 scum)
~ there was only 1 death last night, either a doc was successful, 2 scum groups nk'd the same person, or there is only 1 scum grouping

I. If there is only 1 group of 3 scum
- an inaccurate lynch would make 3 scum & 6 townies
- another Night Kill of a townie would make 3 scum & 5 townies
- with 8 alive, 5 would lynch
- a second mis-lynch would lose the game for us

however,
II. If there are 4 scum split between 2 scum groups
- an inaccurate lynch would make 4 scum and 5 townies
- there is a decent chance of a scum crosskill, double target, or at least a doc protect
- that could make:
a. 3 scum and 4 townies
b. 3 scum and 5 townies
c. 4 scum and 2 townies
d. 4 scum and 3 townies
all of these are pretty terrible for the town

So I am not totally sure of what the best dylan policy is. I see now that Crub is right that it will be a choice either today or tomorrow.
I hate to play "out guess the mod" but my guess is that we have one scum group, unless dylan is a SK and was savvy enough not to kill last night. Remote chance? Not even? dylan is in my head right now, like I'm not seeing some obvious clue or something.

I don't see why there is any particular reason why dylan should be lynched today or tomorrow though. There are at least two other scum (isn't pickem back yet?) and I hope we can get a consensus on one of them before we have to turn to dylan.

[Adel]

dude, what if dylan is our doc?

[Adel]

don't respond to my last, idiotic post dylan. i need to learn to think before i post.

[Adel]

other players would all have equally slim odds of being SKs. At least dylan being an SK would make his behavior make more sense to me. dylan is like an annoying and complex little puzzle, that only looks hard until someone shows you how to solve it. I don't know if we will solve it, but I suspect that there is a correct solution to the dylan problem.

[Adel]

I don't have much to say at this point. I'm moving this weekend and this game is a pretty low priority for me right now. Don't expect another post from me here until Monday, about this time.

[Adel]

checking in to

unvote

and jump on-board the pickem wagon.

vote:pickemgenius

my time is still totally limited, so I'm afraid I'll have to leave the actual questioning to NabNab and others for now, but I am keeping up with the game (easy to do when the post volume is so low).

[Adel]

welcome back MoS! Thanks for replacing in!

[Adel]

@Tar: That's an interesting approach, but it seems like it relies a bit too much on meta-gaming. Important Question: Was Kate called/caught on her action? Would it be plausible to assume she learned her lesson?

I'm just uncertain as to the benefits of pure reaction fishing in scumhunting.

I keep on trying it, but it hasn't worked very well for me so far in any game.

[Adel]

Odds of being scum is 1 in 4.

Adel has been town in the last 3 games I was in.

I rest my case.

Gambler's fallacy.

Is broken logic a scumtell?

[Adel]

Odds of being scum is 1 in 4.

Adel has been town in the last 3 games I was in.

I rest my case.

Also I was scum in the one before that, and you got me lynched in all three of the other games we were in, just like you.

You must have started smoking crack. The most simple explanation is usually the correct one.

[Adel]

posting to aviod prod

[Adel]

If I were scum than MoS and Tar would be my nephew and cousin.

[Adel]

[quote="Adel"]If I were scum than MoS and Tar would be my nephew and cousin.[/quote

That was me not claiming, by the way.