Mini 458 - Game over!

[pickemgenius]

Oh hai Tar! Care to join much?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I stayed an extra day

[Numenorean7]

How dare you
Now defend yourself

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, reread finally finished. My initial take on the game.

NabNab - Probably town. Offers new lines of reasoning, with backup; I'm getting pro-town vibes overall.

MoS - Probably suicidally aggressive town. This is based as much on a gut feeling as anything else (can't really elaborate, lest I reference an ongoing game).

pickem - Leaning town. I like how he seems to think things through, and I like the analysis he's brought to the table. I need to take a closer look through his actions on the J-man wagon, though.

ThAdmiral - Scummy. He hasn't offered much analysis all game, instead relying on pressure, and I'm seeing evidence of rolefishing (particularly re: J-man's claim).

ckd: Moderately scummy. His predecessor outright claimed that his strategy was "not getting killed" (scummy as all hell, IMO), and I'm seeing strong evidence of deflection and rolefishing re: J-man. CKD seems to continue the rolefishing ("I think he has got some power."), thinks replacements are probably town (BS, and could be covering for his own scumminess). On the other hand, he's offering to sacrifice himself for the town (which I view as a moderately pro-town action), and CKD's offered some good analysis recently.

molestargazer: Neutral. Molestargazer hasn't done anything that really pinged my scumdar, but his tendency to go after weaker players (J-man/dylan) and his general lack of analysis worry me.

Crub: Probably newb town. Some of Crub's/J-man's play is off, but despite that Crub's/J-man's play gives me "newb town" vibes, and the sheer amount of rolefishing I saw re: J-man makes me think that Crub is "easy target" rather than scum.

Num7: Probably town. From what I'm seeing at this time, he generally uses good reasoning, offers new insights, and, in short, is playing in a pro-town manner.

dylan41985 - High. Seriously, that's the best explanation I've been able to think of for his play so far. As such, he's completely inscrutable, and therefore is completely unhelpful. Still, I'd rather not use a lynch on him unless we have to.

Kate - Enigma. I've seen this particular playstyle before, and I still can't get a read on it. I'd rather ignore Kate for now - I should be able to get a much better read on her once Newb 399 is over.

Adel - Scummy. I don't like how she seems to post information without offering her own analysis of said information (see the pretty pictures she posted), nor do I like her "I could pick apart ckd's argument, but I don't feel like it" post. I'm also seeing a disturbing trend - Adel seems to ask for other people's opinions without offering any opinions herself, which reeks of scum trying to go with the flow.

Of the scummy players, I think the case against Adel is strongest.

Vote: Adel, FoS: ThAdmiral; FoS: curiouskarmadog

. I'll try to do a full PBPA on Adel when I get the time.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I like this guy.

[MeMe]

Vote Count

Mastermind of Sin

(4):

dylan41985, Adel, Crub, Numenorean7

Adel

(2):

Mastermind of Sin, Tarhalindur

dylan41985

(1):

ThAdmiral

Not voting

(5):

molestargazer, Kate, pickemgenius, NabakovNabakov, curiouskarmadog

Seven to lynch.

[Adel]

Adel - Scummy. I don't like how she seems to post information without offering her own analysis of said information (see the pretty pictures she posted), nor do I like her "I could pick apart ckd's argument, but I don't feel like it" post. I'm also seeing a disturbing trend - Adel seems to ask for other people's opinions without offering any opinions herself, which reeks of scum trying to go with the flow.

I'm amazed that you didn't see opinion and original analysis in my 124 posts! My cases against ThAdmiral and MoS were out of the blue (and maybe out of left field) and I choose not to pick apart ckd's argument because I was afraid that it would get him lynched and I didn't want to see him get lynched. I've gotten quite a few players lynched on Day 1 who turned out to be scum, so I am more cautious now.
I'm always impressed when people view my graphics as scum tells. I am trying to figure out the most effective way to visually present information expressing every action in the game. The goal is to have a game "map" of everything that can be objectively expressed. I am a visual thinker, and I need a map to help me do analysis. Having a map should allow me to literally "see" a new class of scumtells, and I am going to keep that information to myself for as long as possible. I don't want the meta to adapt, especially since I haven't really figured out any good tells yet. I have a couple of possible ones, but I haven't been in enough games to judge how accurate they are. I should be a pretty good scum-hunter in a few months, until then I'm just doing the best I can.

[NabakovNabakov]

@Tar: Solid analysis for the most part. I, of course, disagree with your read on MoS, but I can see where you're coming from, and I feel your opinions have weight if you're playing other games with the guy. I do think Adel brings up some good points (though she may want to fix the typo at the end of the first paragraph). I have seen her provide solid, personal analysis in the game. Your charge that she asks too many questions seems a bit of a null tell, and posting information without analysis (i.e. the graphs) might not be very helpful, but I don't think it's scummy.

@MoS: Glad you're back, hope you enjoyed Thespival. I also hope you realize this thread has been mostly waiting on you.

[Numenorean7]

I like this guy.

QFT. Very solid analysis there. I don't necessarily agree with everything he said, but I like to see a player who thinks logically. Welcome to the game. I am looking forward to that PBPA on Adel.

@MoS
Everyone has been waiting for you to get back and post a defense. Now you're back, but you have written only 9 words so far. Are you at least catching up on the thread and preparing a big post?

It looks like NabNab has just posted almost exactly this same thing. Oh well.

[Crub]

I've gotten quite a few players lynched on Day 1 who turned out to be

scum

, so I am more cautious now.

Yeah don't wont to lynch those scum?

[Adel]

I've gotten quite a few players lynched on Day 1 who turned out to be

scum

, so I am more cautious now.

Yeah don't wont to lynch those scum?

I've never been in a game where scum was lynched on day 1. Huge typo. Is that the typo you were talking about NabNab?

[ThAdmiral]

Scum:
Dylan
Pickem
hmmm. I'm going to say Nab-Nab

Town:
MoS
Num7
Tarhalindur

[Adel]

huh, pickem has pretty much fallen off my radar. Do you have evidence more recent than when the last wagon against him slowed down?

[ThAdmiral]

He just ticks a few scummy boxes for me:
- Doesn't post very often, so stays under radar
- Hasn't mounted a strong case against anyone (he did pbp's of dylan and ckd I think, but then didn't end up voting for them), so hasn't really put his opinion out there to be criticized as much as other people
- MoS's case of pushing bandwagons while not getting on them
- As I made mention before is one of a few possible scumbuddies with dylan
And finally...
- I've got a gut feeling

Separately they're not so damning but together they make an ok case in my opinion.

[Tarhalindur]

Sorry, guys, but I just got the heads-up: I'm going to be on vacation from August 4-12. I'm 90% sure that I'll have no Internet access at that time.

Mod

, if that's going to be a problem then you should probably start looking for a (temporary?) replacement.

I'll do my best to contribute until then.

[Kate]

Well, I'm not so sure about my scum list, i'll do my reread, and i know i keep promising, but my dumb brothers won't get off WoW! Anyway, Tar seems pretty pro-town, and sorta like my other game, so I guess he's more pro-town.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I like this guy.

QFT. Very solid analysis there. I don't necessarily agree with everything he said, but I like to see a player who thinks logically. Welcome to the game. I am looking forward to that PBPA on Adel.

@MoS
Everyone has been waiting for you to get back and post a defense. Now you're back, but you have written only 9 words so far. Are you at least catching up on the thread and preparing a big post?

It looks like NabNab has just posted almost exactly this same thing. Oh well.

I've caught up on the thread, yes.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Re-read update: Finished!


A general outline on the impression most players gave me:

TOWN:

Adel: I'm sorry MoS, but Adel had numerous opportunities in-thread to facilitate a lynch and she (obviously) took none of them. After re-reading the thread and re-reading your accusations of her, I find myself totally unconvinced, and I'm not even sure what you're accusing her of. Following you around? Being on the Dylan bandwagon? Not talking to Num? Your PBPA pointed out inconsitencies and things that might seem moderately scummy in isolation, but I saw no overarching case saying "Adel is scum, this is her nefarious scum plan."

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply here, NabNab. Adel had the chance to make sure a lynch happened, and so did I. That doesn't make her town and me scum. Obviously, if one of us is scum, we didn't want to push through a lynch at that time. Any reasoning you give for Scum-MoS not to have let a lynch go through could easily apply to Scum-Adel, so I don't think the fact that neither of us let a lynch happen is a tell either way.

Why are you expecting me to present you with a "nefarious scum plan"? Since when do scum have to have a specific plan in mind with they play a game? I can't remember the last time I've started off a game as scum and had something planned out to do, so I'm hardly expecting to find some sort of overarching case against

anyone

, at this point.

Crub/J-Man: J-Man was VI'sh, but in many ways, I found him scummy as well. He seemed eager to wagon, and his claim never sat right with me, neither did MoS's complete 180 on him. Crub hasn't done all that much to improve his position, most of his posting has been unhelpful, and he's showing the same wagoning tendancines as J-Man.

So you're saying that I'm being bussed by my scumbuddy Crub, who I built a wagon on originally and then decided I didn't actually want lynched?

MoS: I'm agreeing with Adel on the rolefishing accusations (though I'm not quite as vehement)

It is helpful for someone to claim before they are lynched. At this point, I intend to lynch J-man, and his most recent posts have only convinced me further. Since he was only 2 votes away from lynch, I wanted him to claim. If he claim was believable, then we can leave him alive. It is better that we not lynch someone whose claim we believe is protown and make the scum have to kill them, rather than do the scum's work for them. I am not claiming that people should claim without pressure. That is not helpful. However, it is extremely unhelpful for the town for someone to refuse to claim when they are about to be lynched.

That post in particular sums things up. I think MoS has had too many inconsitencies in his play to be explained away by scum hunting. He bussed J-Man heavily then called it off. He attacked Pickem, but went buddy-buddy when it's obvious his case wouldn't stick. He claimed early on Adel was pro-town, but has now decided flip on that too. When MoS posts, there is always an air of calculation about as if he's trying to draw the town this way or that. His recent case against Adel seals the deal, because it seems he just plumb ran out of scummy players he would be able to wagon, and had to set up a less than plausible case.

Pickem made a protown post, and I'm suddenly scummy for having my suspicion of him go down as a result? The case against pickem has been "obvious" that it "wouldn't stick" for quite some time before he made that post, so I think you're stretching to imply that my lowering of suspicion is a direct result of realizing the case "wouldn't stick".

Why is it scummy to change your mind on things? Adel has not been suspicious of me for most of the game, but as soon as I start suggesting her in a scumgroup, she OMGUS's me, and

I'm the one that's scummy?

Don't give me that bullshit.

Stop trying to place a burden of proficiency on me. "Air of calculation"? Rofl. You clearly don't know me that well. My play in

any

game is far from calculated. I don't even hit preview before I post. My style of play is from the seat of my pants, and there's nothing

calculated

about it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think MoS has had too many inconsitencies in his play to be explained away by scum hunting. He bussed J-Man heavily then called it off. He attacked Pickem, but went buddy-buddy when it's obvious his case wouldn't stick. He claimed early on Adel was pro-town, but has now decided flip on that too. When MoS posts, there is always an air of calculation about as if he's trying to draw the town this way or that. His recent case against Adel seals the deal, because it seems he just plumb ran out of scummy players he would be able to wagon, and had to set up a less than plausible case.

Notice that his original case centered more on Num7, although I was named as his likely scum partner. Notice how quickly changed his vote to me after I started attacking him.

Notice how quickly Adel started attacking me after I suggested she was scum.

I really like MoS's last couple of posts telling/asking people to vote for me. sn't it similar to how he acted towards pickem earlier? He concludes that someone is scum, then basically says "you read the posts and see for yourself why it is obvious" instead of presenting his case in a manner that would stand a chance of actually convincing many other people. I think he wants to arouse enough suspicion to force a claim, but not yield a mislynch.

Actually, against pickem, I repeated the case multiple times, and only told people to go back and read the case themselves, since it had already been stated. With your case, I laid the groundwork and encouraged people to do their own reading, since it takes a long time to do a PBPA of 130 posts. Why exactly would I

want

to make a case that would not convince people? What are the benefits of this if I am scum? If I don't want to yield a mislynch, who am I planning to lynch as scum? Why would I

not

want a mislynch!? Your arguments are that I would not do something that benefits scum (if I was scum), and that's completely illogical, Adel.

Remember that he wanted to set the president of claiming at -2 to lynch... I didn't consider that a scumtell until later when I became convinced that he was scum chasing the power roles. Remember when he encouraged us to beat the record of mafia 64? I think that he seriously wants this day to drag on for as long as possible.

Again, what is the benefit of this? If I am scum, the longer the day drags on, the more likely I am to pull suspicion on myself. No player is perfect, and even the best scum (which I am certainly not) drop tells eventually. It is in the scum's benefit to have quick days, although most scum would not openly push for a fast day. It is idiotic to suggest that

because

someone wanted to extend the day, they are scum. It is a complete and utter null tell.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I have been convinced.

Unvote
Vote: MoS

This might seem cowardly: hopping on the MoS wagon now that he's away, but his behavior as he left together with NabNab's analysis have put me firmly on the anti-MoS side. I am looking forward to his defense when he comes back. He is at L-2 now, correct?
MoS has been latching onto a player, and focusing on him with captain-Ahab-like obsession. That is, until he completely abandons the case and jumps onto the next one with all his might.

Yup. And?

Until recently, he had me convinced that he was an agressive scumhunter. Even after his weird case against me I still thought he could be OK, and ought to be saved until D2. But his smug "Please vote Adel" and "You can do that work yourself" was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Just because I'm not willing to make it easy for scum to just say "I agree with MoS" instead of presenting

some

reasoning of their own, that doesn't make me scum.

MoS is arguing his case through repitition, and using an implicit ad hominem attack on those not voting Adel. Taken together with his history of simlutaneous flip-flopping and excessive confidence... Blech. I've been looking to move my vote, and the more I think about it, the more I believe that it belongs right here on MoS.

Talk to people that were at Thespival. What you just described is about the strongest town tell you'll ever get on me, and you're trying to skew it to say I'm scum, LoL.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You are right. It is like many players are already playing for a deadline. I fear that I may be ascribing him god-like powers, but I expect that MoS will not get lynched if he is given enough of a chance to build a case after he gets back. I think he is scum, but will prove to be very slippery for most of the game. However, I think giving Tar a chance to contribute before the end of the day is a good idea, and so I basically support letting the day stall until Tar and MoS get a chance to post.

FoS: Num7

because it just occurred to me that he may be scum buddying up to me, albeit in a very coy and subtle way.

ROFL. So now I am scum with a possible scumbuddy of Num7, who I started to bus and then voted you after you OMGUS'd me, and my master plan is to make the day drag on forever to what purpose again?

[Mastermind of Sin]

No-one's asked me for my take on the MoS wagon..
So you're going to get it anyway - I've not taken sides till now, and hopefully this post will get things clearer in my head. Most likely not.

In my opinion, the MoS wagon has built up very quickly since Adel and Crub voted for him on Page 27. This was immediately followed by a plain OMGUS vote - despite all the previous reasonings against Adel, I don't think that he intended to vote for her quite at that time, and this post...

This looks like OMGUS - even though you have provided reasons beforehand, only voting now after you've got 2 votes is discomforting (If that's a word).

Please note that I simulposted with Crub. My post was in direct response to Adel. In fact, it wasn't until you mentioned his vote in your post that I realized he was voting me. That's almost as disconcerting as Adel's own vote.

... dodges the OMGUS accusation, focusing more on my saying that he'd voted after Crub's second one.

I didn't feel like it was something that needed to be addressed directly. I wasn't

dodging

it, but I felt that the second half of your statement had a more tangible accusation to respond to. Yes, to a point, the vote WAS OMGUS. Of course, your comment failed to take into account that Adel OMGUS'd me originally with

her

vote. You're right. I hadn't intended her to be my top suspicion, but I could see no reason for a town Adel to take the actions she took regarding my own accusations, and that prompted me to take a closer look at her posts in particular.

Unfortunately, Adel is right from what I can tell in that he's built up a case against a lot of players within this game and not really acted - yet going out of his way to protect Dylan, in my opinion the scummiest player in the game until recently.

Could you explain what you mean by "not really acted"? I'm not sure what you are referring to.

Having said that, both sides are at fault, with Adel seemingly attributing MoS with God-like scum-hunting powers and talking about asking for a Doc Protect - which isn't happening.
Crub seemed to go downhill in my opinion from his vote, at the same time as Adel, voting for MoS. Some of the arguments to me appear to be a little flimsy, yet I don't quite think he would be a good vote, looking at the more scummy things happening between MoS and Adel.

So, you're claiming that you've been following me around all game as a "ploy" to see if I was scum or cop? Bullshit.

That isn't what Adel said.

What do you think the implications were, then?

It should be, unless they never gave out an award for it. I didn't join until 04 (i think), so I wouldn't know. This conversation is quickly becoming irrelevant, however.

Quick, convenient change of topic for a townish reason?

What do you mean by this? There is no point in arguing whether or not the award was actually ever given out. It's been proven that the

idea

for the award was there, and the only purpose it served was as a reference point to prove that placing a Burden of Proficiency argument on me is complete bullshit.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MSG: it was something that occurred to me while I was thinking about the game. I wrote it down mostly to remind myself to look for it when I do my next read-through, but I am kinda hoping someone else will do the detective work first.

My though process went like this:

Assumed: Num7 is scum.

What are his actions so far during this day?
Intelligent postings of decent length posted less frequently than other players. Replaced a player I didn't have a read on. Voted for ckd before I did, and for seemingly good reasons. May have followed my vote for ThAdmiral (can't remember, don't have time to look it up. Seems to have agreed with most of my posts. Voted for MoS after I did.

Who are his scum buddies? He could be bussing MoS. MoS's attack on Num7 could have been a distancing tactic. ckd didn't lump him with me or Crub. Was he the one attacking Hungry Joe? Was it him or ckd that was attacking MSG earlier. Has he had any interaction with Katie?

How has he interacted with me? Nothing very direct. I think we've agreed on our evaluations of most other players. How often did his stance come before mine? Is he following my lead?

I would normally do a read-through to collect evidence but I don't have time right now. I usually issue a FoS when I have a hunch and a decent theory, but I haven't gone through the evidence throughly. My hunch against Num7 is party due to my conviction that MoS is scum: I was trying to figure out who MoS's scumbuddies are when I read those tells for the first time.

Does someone else want to do the initial detective work? I am still all about a MoS lynch in the meantime.

What is this a quote of?

[Mastermind of Sin]

@ThAdmiral: Of course it's easy to skew the findings of a re-read (especially when most are too daunted to do one themselves), but that doesn't automatically make all re-reads malicious attempts to wagon a player. I'd like to think that I went into the thread with a fairly open mind, and the conclusions I drew are my own. The most convincing conclusion I drew was that MoS has pulled a 180 far too many times for my liking. My main concerns are not even that he's blatantly (or effectively) rolefishing, because you're right, we're all a bit guilty of that. What caused my suspicions the most were his sudden, unexplained changes of heart on various players. To me, they just rang false.

I'm rolefishing, despite the fact that the only person I even remotely said should claim was J-man (and maybe pickem, I honestly can't remember if I asked him to claim)?

Go back and look at my post. The vote I placed was for pressure, I wanted to hear what he had to say (even though it might take a little while if he isn't posting from Thespival) on the matter, and I thought a bit more pressure might take him out of his "Vote Adel kthx" bent and actually get him talking. When two votes followed mine in quick sucession, I unvoted, because a lynch isn't my goal (yet).

And, much in the same way I may be seeing MoS fumbling, I think you're fumbling too, ThAdmiral. This town has discussed enough and examined enough to get some of our possible lynchees (J-Man, Dylan, CKD) off the hook. Each player (no offense intended) fits the profile of the easy scum lynch, a sincere yet inexperienced or unskilled town player who can say enough stupid things to get themselves killed. Could one of them be mafia? Probably, but we've saved at least one townie from being the easy D1 lynch, and as more and more easy lynches are rightly or wrongly cleared, I can see more and more people fumbling for a new nexus of suspicion. MoS found himself having to go after Num and Adel, but he was quickly turned down. You've been laying it on me pretty thick, ThAdmiral, yet I have set no real precedent for scummy behavior, so I can imagine no source for your scummy profiling of me besides fear for MoS or the desprate hope for a new target.

Like they always say: Long days are good for the town.

You do realize that, of the three "possible lynchees" you listed, I only pushed a lynch on one of them (iirc)? I'm pretty sure I defended dylan and ckd instead of bandwagoning them. So, I pushed a lynch against one person, specifically defended two other "easy lynches" instead of pushing them all the way to lynch, and then decided that I

had

to go after Num7 and Adel? I was the one that saved both VI's from lynch. It was because of me that we cleared them and have to find someone else to lynch. You're saying that I purposefully made it so that we didn't have an easy lynch and then had to "fumble" for a new nexus of suspicion? If I was scum, why would I have picked Adel and Num7, two people that had not received very much suspicion. Why not molestargazer, who I had voted earlier in the game? Why not Kate, who was generally suspected by all? Why not HungryJoe or ThAdmiral, either of which would be construed as scummy (perhaps not both, I'm in severals games with either/both of ThAdmiral and HungryJoe, and I can't keep straight which games I'm suspicious of them in, and which one I'm suspicious of, but I'm sure that one of them was susipcious in this game). Why would I specifically choose Adel and Num7, were I scum just looking to start quick bandwagons that would force a claim?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Did I miss anything?