Mini 458 - Game over!

[Adel]

Also, ABR, I hope you remember making this post in that game:

And I think it is scummy that you aren't even trying to talk me out of my vote- as if you

know

that I have the opposite alignment from you (because you are scum, and you are sure that your fakeclaim will keep you from being lynched and you are pleased that I just increased my own chances of getting mis-lynched.

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about your alignment right now. Your too OMGUSsy to reason with, as demonstrated in various games, so I'm not going to try convincing you to unvote me. Instead, I'm going to try to convince the town to lynch you, how's that ?

reading your post at 1197 gave me a severe case of déjà vu.

Okay, I have some metagaming evidence that Adel and Pickem are scum together....first, there was that one time when pickem jumped in the middle of one of our games to defend Adel. That doesn't make sense for him to watch Adel's game unless they are tied, right ? And I lynched Adel in the other game pickem was in, so this is definitely the game they are mafia together.

By using similar "logic" (Gambler's Fallacy) I could conclude that this is the game you are scum in.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Perfect. So instead of pickem saying straight-up that he was there for you, he made a detour and said instead that he found the player list interesting.

In you're opening posts you were saying:

So long as there is a player out there that I don't have enough information on to found an opinion upon, I'll refuse to extend that player the benefit of the doubt.

Also, I find it laughable that you say you sent a similar pm to Jalyn and Guardian, since Jalyn basically gave you the victory, and Guardian, well, we all know what Guardian thinks about you.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I could conclude that this is the game you are scum in.

OMGUS ? A nicely added touch.

[Adel]

As far as I know, Guardian thinks I am a crappy player. Are you clued into something I am not aware of? Since Jalyn was the townie player that gave me a victory in Friends and Enemies as scum, who is that a metagame tell against me?

[Albert B. Rampage]

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations. I have yet to see you do this as town.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I perfectly understand that I may be alienating everyone else, but its like I was seeing the matrix. I'm seeing things in you that they can't see. I could try and explain certain things, but they would just seem unbelievable or unsubstantial.

[Adel]

I perfectly understand that I may be alienating everyone else, but its like I was seeing the matrix. I'm seeing things in you that they can't see. I could try and explain certain things, but

they would just seem unbelievable or unsubstantial

that would just be bullshit, heaping loads of it

.

There. I fixed it for you. [/joke] [/kinda] [/ok, it is a joke based on truth]

[Albert B. Rampage]

I am sure pickem and you were exchanging pms of personal matters during the day and mafia matters during the night

[Adel]

I was a cop in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

odds of the three of them being innocent are better than 50-50 after my weighting for scumminess is factored in.

1 in 2 = 50% for first scum
3 in 5 = 60% for second scum
.5x.6=.3
TF original odds were 30% of me being right assuming I am Townie (is my setup for the math correct?)

My wild ass guess after my analysis is factored in is in the neighborhood of 55%-60%

Obviously your odds should be different.

Dogmom:

I had a similar experience reading through mneme's posts individually. When I first replaced I read through the thread in chronological order first, and I though he was scummy. I think it is just his tone, or maybe an anti-authority quirk of my personality. Now he is in my bottom three for scumminess.
Did you play mafia before you joined this forum? Which of your completed games did you learn the most from?[

mneme & DogMom:

If you have the time, let's talk some theory:

"What I've found to be more helpful than 'make your scumtheory first, then go look for evidence' is the PBPA that just looks at what a person posts, their comments, their votes and their overall behavior."
But don't you need a theory o' scum to filter signal from noise? Esp. when it comes to evaluating behavior, the criteria you choose to use is a based upon a scum-theory. The TSSF is when you develop a theory based upon the evidence you are looking at, when all you have is a hypothesis which needs to be falsifiable and tested in order to become a theory. I am not trying to split hairs over the definition of "theory," I am trying to determine common failures in thinking that leads to a townie lynch of townie.

I like mneme's approach of trying to model and classify the behavior of lurking. I am going to use his definitions in future games I play as a starting point.

Just ignoring the meta in any game will not make it go away. The key is to understand the current state of the game, and in which direction it is changing. A larger game meta-theory I agree with holds that transparency in the creation of successful meta-tactics mostly benefits the creators. Transparency enables a greater rate of transmission to other players until it is "common wisdom" and the creator will have a perspective that greatly aids in identifying successful counter-tactics emerging in the meta game. WIFOM can be an accurate argument (even though it a common wisdom scum-tell here) because many recursive models are accurate. Each permutation will have less penetration, and that rate of decay in influence can be estimated.

Lets take lurking as an example. Here is a first-stage model for the meta game:
S1. Lurking benefits a scum because the less they post the less likely they are to err. This tactic will occur to 100% of scum players.
T1. Lurking is a behavior typical of scum, lynch the lurker. ~95% of town players in newbie games.
S2. Lurking will lead to a scum lynch, so don't lurk when scum, post instead. ~93% of scum.
T2. Scum are too smart to lurk. ~85%
...
S_n. Townies know that scum will not lurk T.F. lurking is a good idea. ~((-A*e^((S_n-1)-h)+k)*100)% of scum for some values of A, h and k
T_n. Scum will know that lurking is a good way to hide, T.F. lynch the lurker is a good idea. ~((-A*e^((T_n-1)-h)+k)*100)% of townies for some value of A, h and k.
The sum of all cases give you the odds of a particular behavior on a continuum between top poster and least poster for scum. I feel confident that in a game of seven players the bell curve distribution will peak between 4th and 6th most active poster.

Once the constants are figured out, the type of behavior recommended by the model becomes the input for a second-stage model. The creators of the original model will have in edge in designing an accurate second model.

Therefore, recursive arguments can be solved, and WIFOM is not always an err in judgment. Of course, each game setup is different, play styles differ from player to player, and there are countless other variables to be taken in consideration, and even an accurate model is only true with a large sample size of games.

To determine if lurking is a scum tell in any specific game, there will be a predictable percentage chance that it is, based upon analysis of past games. The graph of the accuracy of the model against time yields an accurate depiction of the state of the meta-game, & informing the creators how to offset the odds of the model being right in future games. This is how some people make money off of the stock market by day trading despite a transaction cost for each trade they make.

I think using mathematical models to predict the chances of a behavior being a scum tell would be very useful, and could lead to elite play. I wish there was a place that tracked player performance so I could study mafia the way I've studied MTG and chess in the past.

Another problem I have with being dismissive of WIFOM is based on my experience (many years) in chess. Being able to answer "But if I do this he can do that" through 1.5 to 3 moves is essential tactical play. Strategy in chess is oven abstract pattern recognition (my pawns in this shape is preferred against his pawns in that shape in King-Rook-Knight vs. King-Rook-Bishop endgames) which in a way is the sum of countless resolved WIFOM arguments. Otherwise it would be impossable to know that 1.a4 is worse than 1.e4 or about nine other first moves for white.

Because this theory of the meta-game is a WIFOM argument, I doubt many will believe it can be true or useful. Do you?

Everyone else:

With only three of us posting actively, I am worried about a mis-lynch. Get out of the lurk people! We only have a little over 24 hours to go! Lurking right now is really anti-town behavior, which will carry over into Day2.

I was also a cop in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5472

Adel is indeed acting differently then a few pages ago. Plus, I was not aware Adel was a She. A rational girl? Awesome.

How does this claiming thing work? In that all the role PMs are posted on the first page, how does claiming help any?

If I claim that I'm a Townie, I can't communicate at night or outside this thread, and I win when the mafia die, how does this change the situation? FeRnAnDo will still suspect me just as much...

Thanks for the compliment. Since I'll hit 30 in a few months I don't think I qualify as being a "girl" anymore- in my experience girls are almost never rational, and I was no exception.
There is a 50% chance that one of is a cop, and a 50% chance that one of us is a doctor. Both are called power rolls. Power rolls don't want to reveal themselves: if they get exposed they will almost surely die. However if they are about to get lynched, claiming is better than the alternative of dying immediately. Town players will almost never vote to lynch a player that has claimed to be a power roll, and for that reason scum when facing an immediate lynch will often lie and say they are a power role. Regular Townie players when facing a lynch are often tempted to lie for a variety of reasons, like to draw the night kill, in addition to the normal reason of not wanting to hang. It is pretty much an article of faith on this forum that when a Townie lies in that position he is making a huge mistake. I don't have enough experience to know if that is true, but

all

of the good players I know of think it is. It seems like it is also always a mistake for a power roll to lie and claim that they are just a normal townie. Scum facing a lynch will also often claim Townie, which seems like a common move.

Assuming that all of the above is true, these are the rules for claiming:
1. Only claim if you are in very real danger of being lynched very very soon.
2. If you are a Townie, tell the truth about your role.
3. If you are scum, lie. Either choose a power role or claim normal townie.

These are some other guidelines I've picked up:
1. Regardless of your alignment, don't speculate about who is a power role. If someone claims to be a power role definitely speculate on if they are telling the truth or not.
2. Remember that if you are town you do not want other players to claim, but if you are scum you do want other players to claim.

IC's: did I do a decent job of summing all of that up? I may be missing something, so if I am please point it out.

I was a normal townie in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 75&start=0 but I didn't use any numbers or equations, but I only made 27 posts before being NK'd


I was a vig in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 53&start=0

Wow. You really are gunning for me, aren't you. No wonder townies so often lurk giving cover to the lurking scum: play as aggressive as your's suppresses participation. Less information = less basis for lynch votes = greater % of a mis-lynch. WTG.

I also chased lurkers in that game

12 pages in 7 days so far... will we need more than 24 pages to lynch someone? It is just a mini.

Could the rest of the town please vote? If someone gets to -3 or -2 to lynch, then don't, but we can at least use our votes to pressure some content out of those we consider may be scum.

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Actually, I read those and most are obvious:

50% there's a cop, 50% there's a doc...that's not a formula.

"Less information = less basis for lynch votes = greater % of a mis-lynch." This has nothing to do with numbers altogether.

"If someone gets to -3 or -2 to lynch" Once again nothing to do with what I am talking about.

Basically only the first two posts were correct, and you featured them prominently, while you know fair well I wasn't in that game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I've just finished reading the game from which you quoted those two posts. It seems evident that you purposely and actively acting as if you were scum to avoid the NK. A lot of players jumped on you for that, too. Here's something I can relate to:

I don't understand Albert's "strategy" as described here. What possible good could acting erratically gain you, except being lynched as quickly as possible?

Without discussing ongoing games, can you explain?

I think I can. Being new to mafia, you can read the wiki and old games all you want but still not really understand what kind of behavior will prompt what kind of reaction. For example, in the last newbie I was in with ABR and Mr Flay as the mod i was the doctor and i faced a pretty sure lynch towards the end of day 1, I ended up claiming to avoid the lynch but I messed up my claim badly enough that i was lynched day2 for the loss. From the beginning of Day 1

I knew that I wanted to be a little scummy as to avoid a NK

, but I didn't know how to be scummy enough to avoid the NK but not be lynched. If I had been lynched more often in previous games (only happened once before at that point, and that was a totally quicklynch) I could've done a better job of avoiding the wagon. Figuring out what exactly will get you lynched is an important skill. I just got lynched in a second game, this time a mini, where I was also the doctor but this time I didn't claim Day 1. Apparently this is an area where I really need to improve. I think it is better to royally mess up one or two games than to lose four+ games in a row (like I have) because the boundaries have not been explored.

[Adel]

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

Liar.

[Albert B. Rampage]

As I said, you were PURPOSEFULLY acting scummy in that game as well. Let me quote something....

Unvote, vote deadscilent

hammer. I lied to avoid the lynch. sorry. you can lynch me tomorrow.

And then she hammered the townie innocent. This does prove that you were in your scummy mindset when you did it. And I know you can't be doc in this game, because you keep saying that you suck so much as doctor. Cop is dead. You're not a power role this time Adel, you are scum.

[Kate]

Saying mathmatical things is not a scumtell, so I'm pretty sure Adel does that as town and scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Hmmm...regardless, I think she is pretty scummy. She found the cop, and advised to shoot him. Then backtracked with some WIFOM.

[Adel]

Finally, I was a doc in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5683 where I posted

You just got me interested in figuring out how to best graphically present the information contained in a finished Mafia game. I think graphing number of votes on each person (different colors) against post number as a unit of time may be a good way to do it. I think the set of the graphs of many games would help to illustrate a number of expected relationships and principles.

Such as:
The longer the day the more likely it is a power role will claim.
The length of day, after some threshold, has little or no relationship with the accuracy of lynches.
Short lived insight into how scum typically vote early in day 1
If there is a some kind of shape found in a graph when a lynch is more likely to be accurate or inaccurate


ABR: you did a great job of laying it all out in a concise manner. Thanks!
I'm not sure about there being a relationship between use of logical fallacies and being scum. In my limited experience there is more than enough sincere sloppy thinking to provide adequate cover for the insincere arguments of scum. Not everyone has the same understanding of logic, or even agree upon the same set of logical systems as being valid. I got raked over the coals in an earlier game for using

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] (contradiction in terms or in definition) as a potential doorway to truth. In normal life I use

contradictio in adjecto[/i ] on a daily if not hourly basis, but the reaction I received was so negative I haven't even considered using it since then. Everyone else thought it was a failing of logic, and therefore a decent scumtell. VIs are the extreme examples of townie players presenting sincere arguments that are horribly flawed. Just a thought.

And this is a game which ABR was in.

So when I read

What I am not taking for granted is that he probably doesn't require a claim to determine who the power roles are. Between the 12 of us there are 11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 66 relationships.

This is what I refer to when I talk about your obsession with numbers as scum. As townie you let yourself go more, but as scum, you put the monkeys in your head to work and figure all these mathematical equations.

I have yet to see you do this as town.

in this game, I immediately saw that ABR was lying.

unvote vote:Albert B. Rampage

I apologize for the length of this post. There are other game I would also quote from if they weren't active an ongoing. ABR should know better, and I believe he does. He is making false statement in an attempt to lynch me. While ABR attempting to lynch me isn't a scum tell for him, I can't remember a time when he

lied

to re-enforce his case.

Liar.

[Albert B. Rampage]

NO U

[Albert B. Rampage]

With a period at the end for emphasis.

[Adel]

once again you've gotten me physically furoius in a game. you are purposefully misrepresenting what happened in a previous game as part of a metagame "tell" against me, and you think you can get away with it. I'm really really steamed. i almost don't care if you're a townie, i'm really frustrated at you mislynching me. it has happened too many times know, you make posts where you sound like you have me figured out and i get lynched for it. you choose Aimee over me for the lynch in the game where i was actually scum and i won because of it. get over it.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I can just picture you smiling as you type that.

[Adel]

What, so my mafia M.O. is pretending to get upset and instead playing you like a fool like I did in Friends and Enemies?

[Kate]

Hmmm...regardless, I think she is pretty scummy. She found the cop, and advised to shoot him. Then backtracked with some WIFOM.

Are you talking about this game? How would Adel know MoS is the cop?

[NabakovNabakov]

Guys...?

This is asinine.

I think that Albert's claim that Adel only crunches the numbers when she's scum was completely unfounded, and he's been backpedaling in a very Albertian manner. For one thing, I doubt that a player who wants to look a tad scummy to avoid an NK will use a weak meta-game tell that they don't even believe in to do so.

Albert, you are obviously attacking Adel in this game. I would ask you to stick to real evidence within the game to support your attacks. I believe you have already posted some, but it has gotten quite mixed up in your meta-bullshit. I always find playing with you to be an... intersting experience because you often seem to follow completely non-game related motivations, and it absoultely frustrates any attempts to figure out your in-game motivations. While it might appear to be so, this is not an advantage as you almost universally come out looking scummy.

In other words, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt for now. Make an actual case on Adel or face the consequences of unfounded attacks.

@Kate: Adel-scum would at least know for certain that MoS is town. However, she was the blatant starter and pusher of the MoS wagon, not just a hopper. I think Adel-scum would be savvy enough to avoid such a blunder.

[dylan41985]

yeah, I don't think it's fair to draw conclusions about Adel from past games. when people do that about me, they're usually wrong.

[ThAdmiral]

Guys...?

This is asinine.

I think that Albert's claim that Adel only crunches the numbers when she's scum was completely unfounded, and he's been backpedaling in a very Albertian manner. For one thing, I doubt that a player who wants to look a tad scummy to avoid an NK will use a weak meta-game tell that they don't even believe in to do so.

Albert, you are obviously attacking Adel in this game. I would ask you to stick to real evidence within the game to support your attacks. I believe you have already posted some, but it has gotten quite mixed up in your meta-bullshit. I always find playing with you to be an... intersting experience because you often seem to follow completely non-game related motivations, and it absoultely frustrates any attempts to figure out your in-game motivations. While it might appear to be so, this is not an advantage as you almost universally come out looking scummy.

In other words, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt for now. Make an actual case on Adel or face the consequences of unfounded attacks.

Well said.

However I do believe an actual facts-based-in-this-game argument can be made about adel-scum. For example in the readthroughs of the two -1 wagons of ckd and mos, adel ends up in the "looks bad" pile both times.

Right now I wouldn't be against an adel lynch...



(or a dylan one of course!)