Mini 458 - Game over!

[ThAdmiral]

I'm still worried about a power role getting outed.

As am I. We've had a few claims now and it's just making it easier for the scum. And I fear the way things are going, in that we can't seem to decide on a lynch, that we'll get a few more before the day is done.

@ CKD: That was seriously good stuff. I didn't like how you purposefully left out j-man's most important post (i.e. his "defence") as I think it did give off a strong newbie-town vibe, but overall excellent stuff. You really made me question a lot of what's happened in the game so far.

[Crub]

unvote: ckd

More coming in the middle of a re-read.

[Numenorean7]

@ckd
IMO, most (if not all) of your arguments against J-man could just as well make him a second VI, not scum. And your arguments for a J-man/Adel/MoS scumgroup are based entirely on conjecture. It's easy to make behavior fit a hypothesized scumgroup: every vote or attack among them is distancing, every vote or attack outside them is deflecting suspicion. I honestly find no reason to believe in this proposed scumgroup.
I agree strongly with N-N's post 487.

One thing I wanted to mention:

theadmiral in response to your response to me i have 1 thing to say, its not my job to convince you to not vote me its your job to kill a mafia as well as mine since im am quite convinced that your just a confused townsperson.

Its “your” job to kill mafia as well as mine. How about “its our job to kill mafia” Almost sounds like you are on opposite teams. He is “quite convinced” that Admiral is town. Almost sounds like adamant, which Num has pointed out, no one can be adamant at this point.

The first part of this makes no sense to me: how is your suggested wording different from what J-man said? In context, J-man's wording almost makes more sense than yours.
But mostly I'm interested in the second part of the post: wasn't it you who was being adamant a little while ago? Perhaps you're admitting that adamant was a bad choice of words, but this is a strange way to do it. Accusing someone else of being adamant just after you've been accused of that same thing?

MoS:
IIRC, your vote on pickem was based mainly on his suggestion that someone else vote for J-man, and his iffy defense/denial thereafter. This seems slim evidence for the kind of confidence you've been displaying.

I will find time for a re-read tonight and tomorrow. If I notice anything new, I'll be sure to mention it.

[Crub]

Ok I've re-read and taken notes I need a while to digest everything and post my conclusions.

[curiouskarmadog]

I'm still worried about a power role getting outed.

@ CKD: That was seriously good stuff. I didn't like how you purposefully left out j-man's most important post (i.e. his "defence") as I think it did give off a strong newbie-town vibe, but overall excellent stuff. You really made me question a lot of what's happened in the game so far.

well, I was pushed for time (also didnt have much time to proof read). As I was pulling the quotes I noted that I was at -1 (thanks, VI) and I would have been pissed if I spent 2 hours reread and quoting to not be able to get it in. I did however, provide the post # so we could go back and read it.

[curiouskarmadog]

One thing I wanted to mention:

theadmiral in response to your response to me i have 1 thing to say, its not my job to convince you to not vote me its your job to kill a mafia as well as mine since im am quite convinced that your just a confused townsperson.

Its “your” job to kill mafia as well as mine. How about “its our job to kill mafia” Almost sounds like you are on opposite teams. He is “quite convinced” that Admiral is town. Almost sounds like adamant, which Num has pointed out, no one can be adamant at this point.

The first part of this makes no sense to me: how is your suggested wording different from what J-man said? In context, J-man's wording almost makes more sense than yours.
But mostly I'm interested in the second part of the post: wasn't it you who was being adamant a little while ago? Perhaps you're admitting that adamant was a bad choice of words, but this is a strange way to do it. Accusing someone else of being adamant just after you've been accused of that same thing?

I will explain again, Basically I thought it was strange for J-man to say.."it is your job to catch mafia" then as an add on he adds, "as it is mine"...I feel that if he was town he might have said "it is our job"...because isnt j-man suppose to be town? The latter of the quote was a jab at you, Num. I realize I was being picky when it came to speech...a little like you were. I found it odd that you jumped down my throat when I used the word "adamant" (saying that it was a scum tell) but let "quite convinced" slide.

[Numenorean7]

The latter of the quote was a jab at you, Num.

OK. I hope I can take a jab gracefully.

I found it odd that you jumped down my throat when I used the word "adamant" (saying that it was a scum tell) but let "quite convinced" slide.

Being quite convinced that someone is town is very different: it's still not ideal, but it's pretty common, especially from a VI type. Plus, I too am fairly certain ThAdmiral is pro-town (though I wish he would post more content), so J-man's comment didn't really jump out at me.
Being adamant about your proposed scum is worse. It suggested to me that you were not only "quite" convinced, but

firmly

convinced, so much so you wouldn't look at other alternatives. I do find this a scumtell. Of course, you have now apologised to Kate and begun attacking Adel and MoS, so I guess you weren't so adamant after all. *shrugs*

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS:
IIRC, your vote on pickem was based mainly on his suggestion that someone else vote for J-man, and his iffy defense/denial thereafter. This seems slim evidence for the kind of confidence you've been displaying.

I will find time for a re-read tonight and tomorrow. If I notice anything new, I'll be sure to mention it.

Did you notice that he did much the same thing with BOTH Dylan and CKD? With CKD's wagon quickly growing, he merely placed an FoS, adding to the suspicion, encouraging others that this was a generally accepted wagon without participating himself. If anything, I'm more confident in my vote now than before.

[NabakovNabakov]

While I agree that it can often seem scummy for a player to be adamant about

one

person being scum, creating a consipriacy theory where you're adamant of

all 3

scum isn't so much. If you're a mafioso and all your targets are town, nobody's going to follow your logic once the first guy comes up town. As the mafia, it makes no sense to start drawing connections of scumminess too early.

CKD, consider my threat of a vote removed, and since this bandwagon (rightly or wrongly) is falling apart, it seems time to find a new target to get to L-1 then absolve (D1 in this game is lasting longer than the entirety of some others).

[Mastermind of Sin]

Huh? Who's drawing connections of all 3 scum? How do you know we have a scumgroup of three? I'm not seeing how your argument works, because you seem to be referencing something I have no knowledge of, NabNab.

[Numenorean7]

I've finished my re-read. I don't want to bore everyone with a wall of text, so I'll summarize. There's not much really new, just a new perspective on it.

I'm getting a protown reading on Adel, HungryJoe, NabakovNabakov, J-man/Crub, Mastermind of Sin, and molestargazer.

Crub/J-man

I'm getting a VI vibe from J-man, and Crub seems a strong pro-town player.

CKD

You all know my opinion of curious, so I'll just say that my re-read has done nothing to change my mind. His recent analysis has convinced some, but he's still at the top of my list.

Dylan

I'm getting a strong newbie scum vibe from Dylan. Again, enough has been said on this topic, but my re-read has made me more suspicious of him.

Kate

Some of her behavior is scummy, but I don't think she has been acting like Mafia, especially lately.

pickemgenius

I understand MoS's suspicions regarding pickem. There's nothing really obvious, but an accumulation of things does look rather scummy.

FoS: pickemgenius

However, IMO other people have been scummier. He will be worth taking a good look at on Day 2, but I don't believe he would be a good candidate for lynch Day 1.

ThAdmiral

I have been saying that ThAdmiral is pro-town, but I'm starting to wonder, particularly because of the early no-lynch wagon:

carrotcake random-votes no-lynch (36)
tromboner agrees, votes no-lynch (39)
kate agrees, unvotes (40)
ThAdmiral agrees, votes no-lynch (47)

Just for this,

FoS ThAdmiral

. No-lynch is a bad idea, and putting on the 3rd vote is really suspicious. I've already mentioned this in conjunction with carrotcake/N-N, tromboner/ckd, and Kate, but ThAdmiral is perhaps the most culpable. I'd like an explanation of post 47. I've previously mentioned his lack of content. He often says over again what has already been said. He posts infrequently, and never says much when he does. I believe he may be lurking in plain sight. I'm keeping a closer eye on ThAdmiral from now on.

My current scumorder:
curiouskarmadog
dylan41985
pickemgenius
ThAdmiral
Kate
molestargazer
Crub
NabakovNabakov
HungryJoe
Adel
MoS
Numenorean7

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd be interested to hear why HungryJoe is so high up on your protown list. If anything, I have him on my "more likely to be scum" list.

[curiouskarmadog]

Crub/J-man

I'm getting a VI vibe from J-man, and Crub seems a strong pro-town player.

please show me how Crub is a strong protown player? Since he has been here he has accused me and Kate of being scum buddies, which was wrong because he "apparently" misread a quote...if I was lynched and came up innocent, would J-man be as "strong pro-town"?

[NabakovNabakov]

@MoS: Fine, I'll do the song and dance here. We don't

know

the size of the scum group. I just used "all three" because those were the same assumptions CKD was working under to formulate his theory. Has anybody ever actually caught scum by pulling that one out?

At the risk of looking like I'm jumping on MoS's lead, I have also been getting some scummy vibes from HJ. Because it was the kind of case where evidence can only be accumulated as long as the person thinks they're in the clear, I hadn't brought it up (waiting 'till D2), but since we need a new target, expect a post on him to come soon.

[pickemgenius]

MoS:
IIRC, your vote on pickem was based mainly on his suggestion that someone else vote for J-man, and his iffy defense/denial thereafter. This seems slim evidence for the kind of confidence you've been displaying.

I will find time for a re-read tonight and tomorrow. If I notice anything new, I'll be sure to mention it.

Did you notice that he did much the same thing with BOTH Dylan and CKD? With CKD's wagon quickly growing, he merely placed an FoS, adding to the suspicion, encouraging others that this was a generally accepted wagon without participating himself. If anything, I'm more confident in my vote now than before.

Alrighty.

With CKD I knew he was fully capable of making a defense for himself as he has attacked others pretty relentlessly throughout his time here, I wanted to give him one more chance to defend himself properly (which he did) before I would have voted for him.

With dylan, you said the inconsistancies were glaringly obvious, yet he still hasn't ever adressed them, and you're totally convinced he's town, just because his playstyle (???). Well he plays like this as both town and anti-town.

[Adel]

@MoS: Fine, I'll do the song and dance here. We don't

know

the size of the scum group. I just used "all three" because those were the same assumptions CKD was working under to formulate his theory. Has anybody ever actually caught scum by pulling that one out?

Saying that Mike is scum with Vinny isn't at all the same thing as saying that there are two and only two scum. ckd's theory never left out the possibility of there being a forth- I was watching for it. Your statement that there are 3 scum seems to infer that somehow you

know

that there are exactly three scum.

It is definitely a scumtell.

[Adel]

Did you notice that he did much the same thing with BOTH Dylan and CKD? With CKD's wagon quickly growing, he merely placed an FoS, adding to the suspicion, encouraging others that this was a generally accepted wagon without participating himself. If anything, I'm more confident in my vote now than before.

That tells me that the wagon on J-man probably had fewer of his scumbuddies on it than the wagons on dylan and ckd.... assuming that J-man, dylan and ckd are town and pickem is town.

[curiouskarmadog]

@MoS: Fine, I'll do the song and dance here. We don't

know

the size of the scum group. I just used "all three" because those were the same assumptions CKD was working under to formulate his theory. Has anybody ever actually caught scum by pulling that one out?

Saying that Mike is scum with Vinny isn't at all the same thing as saying that there are two and only two scum. ckd's theory never left out the possibility of there being a forth- I was watching for it. Your statement that there are 3 scum seems to infer that somehow you

know

that there are exactly three scum.

It is definitely a scumtell.

I named two people before (kate and crub) because that is what I thought at the time. I didnt name anyone else because I wasnt sure and didnt see a link...I named three this time, for the same reason...you are stretching from ANYTHING arent you Adel?

[Adel]

I don't think my last post means what you think it does.

[curiouskarmadog]

What I think is really interesting, is that once I posted my theory, Adel changed up her play style. Questioning MoS’s theory on Pick (495)….Adel wanted it laid out fully, but she didn’t need it laid out fully when she voted for Pick before when MoS pointed it out. Then she questions him again in a later post (post 499)

Again, why has no one else picked up on this? You might think I am scummy Adel, but at least I am consistent.

Saying that Mike is scum with Vinny isn't at all the same thing as saying that there are two and only two scum. ckd's theory never left out the possibility of there being a forth- I was watching for it. Your statement that there are 3 scum seems to infer that somehow you

know

that there are exactly three scum.

It is definitely a scumtell.

no...you are saying that because I say I think there is a group of 3 scum and dont mention a 4th, that I know something about the size of the mafia. Again you are putting words in my mouth. I never said there was exactly 3 scum...why do you constantly PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH!?

Lying is a scumtell

[Adel]

Pickem's behavior with large wagons:


J-man: 6 ( NabakovNabakov (fak), ThAdmiral, ckd (Tromboner), dylan41985, Mastermind of Sin, Adel)
pickem places a FoS

dylan41985: 5 (ThAdmiral, Kate, molestargazer, HungryJoe, J-man)
pickem placed a vote putting dylan at -1

curiouskarmadog: 5 (Numeronean7, Adel, Crub, NabakovNabakov, Kate)
pickem places a FoS. dylan's vote came after pickem's FoS


hypothesis: the J-man and ckd contain two scum partnered with pickem, while the dylan wagon only contained 1.

remember, fak=NabNab, carrotcake=Hun. joe, and danmonkey=Num7, Tromboner=ckd

Adel and NabakovNabakov are the two players who were on both the J-man and ckd wagons, but neither were on the dylan wagon. Could
Adel, NabakovNabakov, and pickem be scum together with dylan, and pickem was bussing dylan with -1 vote? Not likely, IMHO, since I know I'm town, but that is the easiest way to make the facts fit my hypothesis.

Just when I was thinking that this exercise was a waste of time, I noticed the relationship between dylan and pickem.

When I have time I'll read back through looking for instances where dylan follows pickem's lead. I think there may be a connection there, and it would make sense if our VI is scum that he would follow the lead of a stronger player.

[Adel]

I believe that pressure vote to gain information can be a good thing.

no...you are saying that because I say I think there is a group of 3 scum and dont mention a 4th, that I know something about the size of the mafia. Again you are putting words in my mouth. I never said there was exactly 3 scum...why do you constantly PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH!?

Lying is a scumtell

Actually I was fingering the other guy, and using you as the non-scummy counter-example. NabNab used the fact that you named three people in your theory as the precedent excusing him saying that there are 3 scum. I was waving the bullshit flag at

him

.

Why do you constantly think I put words in your mouth?

[Adel]

With dylan, you said the inconsistancies were glaringly obvious, yet he still hasn't ever adressed them, and you're totally convinced he's town, just because his playstyle (???). Well he plays like this as both town and anti-town.

This is an interesting statement.

pickem: where is a game we can look like where dylan plays like a VI when he is scum? You seem to know that he plays like this when he is scum, and I think it is possible that you are scum with him in this game, and you are frustrated that your VI scumbuddy is the VI. I think you already tried to bus him once, and even that didn't work, he is the VI who just won't die and you are afraid that he will out you entire crew.

unvote: curiouskarmadog

until this gets sorted out.

[pickemgenius]

Pickem's behavior with large wagons:

J-man: 6 ( NabakovNabakov (fak), ThAdmiral, ckd (Tromboner), dylan41985, Mastermind of Sin, Adel)
pickem places a FoS.

My example may be crap, that's why I haven't placed an FOS, IGMEOY, or VOTE on J-man this whole time.

I NEVER put on FOS on J-man, but thanks for lying about that.

dylan41985: 5 (ThAdmiral, Kate, molestargazer, HungryJoe, J-man)
pickem placed a vote putting dylan at -1.

Yeah, I did, he was/is scummier then hell, he still hasn't responded about all the massive inconsistencies that are "glaringly obvious". He does play like this as town, or anti-town, so playstyle now becomes a null-tell.

curiouskarmadog: 5 (Numeronean7, Adel, Crub, NabakovNabakov, Kate)
pickem places a FoS. dylan's vote came after pickem's FoS .

I've already explained my FOS on him.

hypothesis: the J-man and ckd contain two scum partnered with pickem, while the dylan wagon only contained 1.

remember, fak=NabNab, carrotcake=Hun. joe, and danmonkey=Num7, Tromboner=ckd

Adel and NabakovNabakov are the two players who were on both the J-man and ckd wagons, but neither were on the dylan wagon. Could
Adel, NabakovNabakov, and pickem be scum together with dylan, and pickem was bussing dylan with -1 vote? Not likely, IMHO, since I know I'm town, but that is the easiest way to make the facts fit my hypothesis.

Just when I was thinking that this exercise was a waste of time, I noticed the relationship between dylan and pickem.

When I have time I'll read back through looking for instances where dylan follows pickem's lead. I think there may be a connection there, and it would make sense if our VI is scum that he would follow the lead of a stronger player.

I'm quite interested what relationship you won't find between me and dylan.

Now looking at you and MOS on the other hand is a different situation, you've been lubey-dubey with each other all game, this isn't a scum tell(yet), just it might be for later on.

[Adel]

I NEVER put on FOS on J-man, but thanks for lying about that.

sorry. I though you had. I even have the freaking diagram to help me keep these things straight, but I didn't think I had to look at it to confirm you FoS on J-man.