Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Thesp

Claim and die!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Trust me, you don't want to know.

Glrok, vote for Thesp please.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

OMGUS FoS: Glrok

for lying.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'll vote for her the day before endgame if you vote for Thesp today. Deal?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There can only be one

distracted lurker

.

Fixed.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Deal.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That, spec, is the fine art of negotiation at work.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, a vote for Thesp is a vote for progress!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As long as it takes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why the italics?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well I could, but he'd just change my findings.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: AndrewS

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, unless Stoofer went crazy with role assignment, chance is responsible, Glrok.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fritz, why don't we make scumvoid's tomorrow's play and Thesp today's play?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Unvote, vote: AndrewS

-2

Zind, with me!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, from what I've seen from CES, he's usually relatively silent and only becomes really active when he's scum. Granted, part of that is based on a face-to-face game in real life, but it's the best I've got.

I play differently in real life games. I didn't rack up my post count by only being active when I'm scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I know what the deal was for. But you should still vote for AndrewS. It'll be fun.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No-lynching is bad for information flow and reduces the town kills:mafia kills ratio. It's, as I believe Adele said, giving the power to the scum. You are not allowed to mention on Day 1.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Draw attention to yourself so your GFyness can come in handy?
To pretend to try and incite reactions? (Hey, it's not like you've done anything with the reactions you've supposedly gotten.)

Anyhow, I don't consider it all that relevant, personally.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And with "it", I mean your intent.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But he mentioned no-lynch...

And it'll be fun, Zind.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've never ever seen scum suggest no lynch, especially a non-newbie scum. Also, it's pretty obvious that no one here will support it, since this is an invitational. Like Patrick, I think the people using this as a reason to attack are scum.

Then why are you voting for me? I'm not attacking him over it.

AndrewS, I answered your question, didn't I? I don't care about your intentions because I don't nearly have enough information to discern between the possibilities. I don't think your post is more than a weak scum tell and it's only a weak scum tell, because I don't see town doing it, personally.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

See, I knew I was right. I did unvote CES. Why didn't you notice, CES?

Um, I did notice? I don't see where I suggested otherwise.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

O RLY?

YARR RLY!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yes, see my signature.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He only has 463 posts though. That's, like, not a lot.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regardless, though, it's not the best argument, nor should it be the only thing posted with a vote.

The "it'll be fun" has very little to do with my vote for you. In both cases, it was meant as an non-serious exhortation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But Glrok was just joking.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wait, who's the second scum again, Thesp?

(I'm too lazy to look.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Patrick

for misrepresenting Thesp.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Such a throw-away comment can not possibly warrant an inclusion in Thesp's scum group list.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zindaras: it's pretty easy to get a read on Thesp. Just follow him blindly. If the town's losing, he's probably scum. If you just won the game, well, then he's probably town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That doesn't make it less scummy, Patrick.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's more of a "apologizing doesn't change what you said" than a "

FoS: Patrick"

.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's more of a "joking about it doesn't change what you said" than a "FoS: Patrick".

Fixed, then.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Um, no, Ether, the WIFOM is "I wouldn't do that if I were scum.".

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Unvote, vote: scumvoid

Thesp, with me!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Except that first one.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok's early vote might've been random, but that doesn't make the bandwagon random. Fritzler called it long before.

FoS: IH

for mischaracterising the wagon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And

FoS: ChannelDelibird

for going along with it, obv.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vig is provable.

Unvote, vote: AndrewS

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Spectrumvoid, telling us your vig target is very unlikely to aid the scum. You hitting the GF and a cop investigating the same target are both much more realistic scenarios.

Also, AndrewS, just to nitpick, a real vig would kill spec(or at least try to) rather than not kill.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm all for her telling us who she's going to vig, though. Also, am I mistaken or could there be Serial Killers in this game?

You are, of course, mistaken.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Um, Adele, I don't see how picking 3 targets rather than 1 would in any way be a boon to the town. It's not like she's a cop, her target is hardly influence the scum's nightkill. Picking 3 targets would only make the pool of possible investigations smaller.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And if we do have multiple vigs, then spectrumvoid choosing a target should allow for multiple confirmations of vigilanteness tonight. Three targets would again be suboptimal.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Patrick - with 7 possible pro-town roles, the chances of 2 vigs are 1 in 49. The chances of 3 vigs are 1 in 343. Not impossible odds, but odds that I would feel safe on betting on. Regardless, I think SV is a bad lynch. Oh, and I forgot to vote earlier...

Not really. If spectrumvoid is telling the truth, a fair assumption, then the odds of having another vig are 13 in 49 and the odds of two additional vigs are 1 in 49.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, maybe she doesn't want the scum to know who she's targeting, or the scum won't want to hit the same target, so we'd also be limiting their pool.

Scum tend to nightkill townie-looking players, you know? I don't see how this is an issue, at all.

Also, I forgot to mention that the objective(ie. before spec claimed) chance of 2 vigs are not 1 in 49 as AndrewS claimed but rather 18 in 343(1/7*1/7*6/7*3), which is nearly 2,5 times higher. So he screwed that up too.

If the scum get to see who spectrumvoid will NK, and know it's not one of their own, they could deliberately no-kill to try and force a mislynch of spectrumvoid. Without letting them know, they must operate in the dark, and almost certainly must kill tonight, allowing sv to be more provable.

I wouldn't lynch spec over one such Night if she killed who she was supposed to. Either she'll be proven eventually or the scum won't be killing or we control the scum kill as long as she wants to live.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm sure spectrumvoid will listen to reason. She made that post a while ago, before most of the relevant things were said.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES 1, Adele 0.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

IH is getting vigged, Zindy, so why don't you hop on over to the AndrewSwagon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You want IH dead? Well, he's going to be. Voting for him at this stage is dumb and because of the deadline I'd even call an anti-town action.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm also still not convinced spectrumvoid ought to commit to her target now, as AndrewS's alignment makes a big difference on everyone's alignment, and I'd be fine if she changed her mind.

I wouldn't be opposed to conditional vig targets.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If I'm reading the thread correctly, there are over two days left until the deadline. To call it anti-town because a vig announced that IH was her target next night is bull.

It's anti-town, because it can only lead to rushed decisions. Your vote is not in any way useful.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I never said it gives me an exemption, I was responding to someone (CES, if I recall correctly), who asked if I was a newbie.

You do not recall correctly. Not only did I not ask that question, you answered that question in an earlier post. The post he refers to is this one:

Oh, come now. Just because I've only played a few games on here recently doesn't mean that I'm inexperienced. I knew when posting that nobody would take me up on it. I started playing here back in 2004, but took a bit of a hiatus during 2006. I know how the game's played.

His interpretation seems valid.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Glrok and Thesp"

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES: Mind explaining the FoSes?

In due time, Glrok, in due time.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're right.

Vote: Glrok

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glork: 3 (Patrick Cogito Ergo Sum MgM)

You forgot about commas.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think after a certain amount of time (usually better measured by posts than real time), most of the useful stuff gets buried by inanity. I think extremely long days tend to hurt the town rather than help it. As far as MBL's theory...

Seriously? I just thought it was part of the "AndrewS needs to die"-shtick.

FoS: Thesp

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In hindsight, yes, but you didn't know that then. And the Day was young by any measure.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp: why aren't you voting for Glrok?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp: why aren't you voting for Glrok?

Actually, I don't really think

any

of the current votees are more likely to be scum.

Minor FoS: CES

I want a player-specific "why". His quote did not answer my question.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why aren't you voting for ChannelDelibird?

See [530].

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This is probably the strangest set of interactive suspicions I have ever seen. It actually makes me wonder if maybe the Mafia is just sitting back and letting a bunch of townies rip each other apart. At this point, I would currently guess that only 1-2 scumbags are in this group of six. To couple that, there are probably 1-2 lurkerscum amongst us.

So you think I'm pro-town?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm reserving judgment on you for the time being. I do find you less likely to be scum than the other five people I named earlier, obviously. My list is currently MGM, then Thesp/Adele (they're pretty interchangable), then CDB, then Ether... Then most other players.

You misunderstood my question. You said you thought there were 1-2 scum in that group of six and 1-2 lurkerscum. Seeing as we only have 3 scum and I fit neither category, that suggests you think I'm town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, why are you so focused on Glork's opinion of you? Your recent posts indicate you think he's scum, so wouldn't his opinion be moot in that case?

It is called pressuring.

I am not getting the distinct CES-town vibe that I've gotten from you in the past, but I am not getting a glaringly scummy vibe either.

Don't worry, it's probably based on all kinds of misconceptions anyhow.

while keeping his vote on me and refusing to explain why

FoS: Glrok

for misrepresentation. I did not "refuse to explain", I was never asked to explain.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Those 2 FoSes are no longer relevant as they hinged on a certain interpretation of Thesp's posts which, as it turned out, contradicted Thesp's explanation of events. I declined to explain, because I felt it would be better for Thesp to get a chance to respond first.

As to your question back then:

No vote at the moment?

I interpreted it as a remark about me not voting at that time when I usually have a vote on someone. Upon reading this post, I realized I was indeed not voting, so I voted.

My current reason for voting for you? Your misrepresentation just now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Bandwagonning, I think.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Bandwagonning, I think.

When?

Post 461.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In my eyes, you're guilty until proven innocent.

That's a bad mindset as it leads to circular reasoning. The correct mindset is possibly guilty until proven otherwise.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

See I think that both mgm and Adele have acted pretty scummy, but I could see them as scumbuddies.

Why the "but"?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I see. I would think the first would support the second.

(If however you phrase it the other way around. "I see them as scumbuddies, but also as individually scummy." That does makes sense and I assume that's what you meant, then.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glork: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum Mgm)
Mgm: 2 (Glork Patrick)
Thesp: 2 (MrBuddyLee ChannelDelibird )

I sense a great disturbance in the force. As if I wasn't bandwagonning properly.

Unvote, vote: Thesp

(I think Mgm is no more likely to be scum than anyone else based on past experiences.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not seeing anything really out of the ordinary in his play.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fritz, vote for Thesp, please?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I could, but that'd still be less votes?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fritz, Adele, Zindaras, Glrok, I'm counting on you. In that order.

(I'd settle for a different order.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Dammit, Lee, how dare you undermine my post of glorious bandwagonning with a simulpost? You'd better move right back!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Now MBL moved his vote, this is no longer the case

This is true, yes. The only bigger wagon, however, is one I disagree with and Glrok just said he'd be willing to lynch Thesp.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But he's scum, Glrok? How does that influence your opinion of Adele and Mgm?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, hop on the wagon! If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mod

, deadline please.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched. Why shouldn't we be voting for you instead?

If the premise here were true, which it is not, as our behaviours differ significantly, then the difference would be that he was wrong and I'm right (probably).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, hop on the wagon! If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

This is a very suspect/dangerous attitude.

FOS: Cogtio Ergo Sum.

Although my comment wasn't really serious, I'll ask you to state the problem you have with that type of attitude. After all, hypothetically, if a mislynch were to give us two scums, then the lynch would certainly have been in the town's interest.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not a leap, it's a hypothetical situation. I don't expect it to magically nab us two scums. I was just positing that mislynches could be useful an sich.

I do understand and agree with your point, but I'd say you read my original comment as possessing a seriousness it does not, in fact, possess.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Of course I was sorta hoping you'd take the bait: I want to lynch Thesp 'cause he's scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You do realize, Glrok, that a no-lynch would seriously undermine a roleblocker's usefulness? We should strive to lynch as many people as possible. Besides, Thesp is scum. Maybe Adele and Mgm are bussing him?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think Stoofs is telling us to lynch Thesp.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think Stoofs is telling us to lynch Thesp.

I sure hope you're kidding.

Well obviously. I do want to lynch you though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp is scum.
Mgm is town.
Adele is either.

There you go, Zind.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Dude, Zind, Mgm is town. Trust me on this one.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

70% and 90%, I'd say. (I'm not really more sure about Mgm being town, but the odds of someone being town tends to be higher, because we have more town than scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why so certain?

Gut + Metagame, essentially.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hey guys, you suck.

Can we lynch Thesp now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ugh, spectrumvoid died last Night, remember? It's very unlikely we have a doctor. Ergo, the scum'll kill her tonight. Scum wouldn't claim cop in such a situation, it'd be giving their life away. And she isn't even the top votegetter.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wait. Who did you think Thesp was masoned to, then? Or what did you read as a mason hint?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Huh? I never did think Thesp was a mason.

I see. I just remembered you saying you wouldn't even vote for Thesp to avoid a no lynch, so I figured the two might be connected. Looking back, it seems that had more to do with your suspicions of Mgm and Adele though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess and die with grace and dignity, scumbag. This does not suit you.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Patrick and Zindaras should vote for Thesp. Honest.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hey MrBuddyLee, why don't you hammah Thesp?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It appears I'm to be lynched by deadline, why hammer?

I'm going to take this as a confession. I didn't expect you to sink this low, Thesp.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, you've expressed suspicion of CDB quite often and it doesn't feel like distancing to me, so I consider him slightly pro-townish looking. Other than that though, CDB's been lurking, a slight scum tell in his case I'd say, but there's nothing in his posts that makes alarm bells go off.

I would also consider my last post to constitute "real thoughts". Spreading blatant falsehoods to try and avoid getting lynched is low, Thesp. I mean, Stoofer's deadline policy is clearly stated on the front page.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lurking and wagonning go side by side, in my experience. So, as I said, slight scum tell.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also note that ChannelDelibird has been

incredibly

active on the site other than this game.

Nah, certainly not. I think he's been more active elsewhere, yes, but certainly not to that extent, crazy Thesp.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Someone hammah Thesp now, dammit. I don't want to no-lynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Thesp

FoS: Ether

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES makes it -2 and tells Zindie to join him. This is something I *do* find a bit alarming. CES, did you want Andrew lynched at that point? If so, why? What did you think of the wagon on AndrewS at the time? What did you hope to accomplish if you didn't want him lynched?

Dude, I saw a bandwagon, so I hopped on. If you really want to know, I certainly wasn't a fan of the whole no lynch suggestion(for corroboration, I went after Channel over a similar suggestion in Open 10), so I felt Andrew would make a pretty decent lynch. Of course I didn't really want a page 4 lynch or anything, but this town is responsible to the extent that I can just do whatever I want anyhow.

Calls CES more lurky as town, more active as scum. I tend to disagree with that assessment.

His assessment, although faulty, does make sense. Based on his experiences with me, it's a fairly understandable one, I'd say.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nightfall, the town gets 3 non-townie roles. Spectrumvoid filled the first slot, Adele the second. As you need 2 masons to make a masonry, the town doesn't have a mason group.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I like how you still suck at reading me, Glrok.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Patrick, firstly, there's the roleblocker thing. Secondly, you can also treat it as a buffer, an alternative when faced with a deadline and little time to get a lynch. Unless one really thought Thesp was a bad lynch, hammering is the right thing to do.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, vote yourself.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think Yesterday was definitely an unreasonable time to use it. I don't see Thesp avoid getting lynched much longer.

I do agree that Mgm is overstating the downsides, though. And let's not worry about GFs when we have yet to even lynch a Goon. For all we know, Mgm might well be nightkilled the next Night.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, what I meant was that I was bandwagonning(although I was actually the first vote on you because it was so early in the Day). You pointed out I wasn't voting, so I voted.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Did you miss where Thesp said a hammer wasn't necessary because he was going to be deadline lynched? He deliberately propagated a falsehood with the intent of surviving the day.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That can't be a false dilemma. He presents 7 different possibilities, not 2.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He's saying it's our fault he's acting like this, so let's fix it.

Don't be silly, Thesp. I'm saying this town is a responsible one. I don't have to worry about bandwagons spiralling out of control and page 4 lynches, that sort of thing. I can vote the way I like. I don't need to show restraint. That's what I meant. Obviously.

And your remark served no real purpose, if you were town. And why assume that one is going to be deadline-lynched rather than simply giving the rules a quick read? The remark is simply far consistent with you being scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As to the assumption, I could have sworn we were under a plurality rule, and I was already typing my post (and unfortunately the preview pane didn't make it back to the first post), and I was too lazy to copy my post to Notepad at the time and go back in the browser, go to the first page, then reurn to my post. I'm uncertain of your argument that townies are typically not lazy, which seems to be what you have to assert for your argument to work.

Firstly, ctrl-c, ctrl-v. Notepad is unnecessary. Ctrl-c it, go back to the browser, first page, check rules, ctrl-v, post. That's nothing. Secondly, we're not talking about townies, we're talking about you. Would you describe yourself as generally lazy?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Everybody: I'd give them about a 3/11th chance of being scum, on average.

(I'll do it, like later, maybe? I've been mucho focussed on Thespscum pretty much since the beginning of Day 2.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I want you to look at everyone else and figure out what

your

thoughts are. I then want you to communicate those thoughts to all of

us

.

Well, duh, obviously. It's still going to take me a little while.

(Besides, Thesp is scum.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Glrok

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp, calling on CDB's hypocrisy wrote:

That's not hypocrisy, that's having double standards. :teach:

(Besides, CDB knows I play like that.)

And the one before last is essentially misrepresentation. CDB has not been particularly active in any of his games. Sitewide, sure, but that's hardly relevant.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Okay, nobody should counterclaim yet.

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? If it is damning as you make it out to be, then I see no reason to out the real last power role.

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why aren't you willing to reveal what you have found, MBL?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because laziness isn't an indicator of scumminess?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, that's crap. I don't think I've seen a single person except you suggest a counterclaim would be a good thing for the town. It's far more likely to be a scum perspective (especially after several people warned how bad a counterclaim would be).

If he's town, he obviously thinks that asking for a counterclaim rather than just getting lynched is a good idea.

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. (It makes sense for

him

to ask for counterclaims, much in the same way I didn't think

you

were typically lazy.)

Glrok, I know. I'll get on it today. I had a poker thing yesterday.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I should probably get back to my re-read if I want to give my opinion on everyone before the lynch. Do you mind if I do it after? I can do the re-read during the night?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

My opinion as regards the most likely lynch and most likely nightkill(Channel and Mgm respectively) are already out there. And I'm pretty sure I'm right on both counts, so I doubt waiting one night will affect my opinion.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok is probably pro-town in this game. True story.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Don't worry, Mgm, the quote is truthful.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You should, though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Zindaras

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yes, he will.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I did a re-read(up till page 36).

It wasn't very helpful.

Town: Glrok, CES, Mgm, Fritzler

Scummity scum: ChannelDelibird, Thesp

Scum: Everyone else

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The former, although my suspicions are mostly based on individual behaviour. Thesp's oft-repeated words "I want to lynch CDB, but I'll vote XXXX" do suggest a link.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp is tomorrow's lynch, dude.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm going for the hammer.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Do you interpret CDB's behavior similarly?

No, it's not his behaviour that really bugs me, although it is slightly scummy. It's the claim.

Also, am I correct to ascertain that you believe my behavior towards ChannelDelibird is more likely to be insincere?

That follows logically from my belief that you are scum, does it not?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sweet.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If Thesp is tommorrows lynch then why are you voting for him today?

Whatever.

Unvote

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, MBL, I've looked for it. I've read his posts in isolation and re-read the entire thread. I didn't find anything. I see no reason to search further. I'm already convinced of his guilt and I don't even know whether I could find it because I might not even think it scummy. I know you say plenty of stuff I don't agree with.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

His claim. I've already said this before...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nothing is ever certain, Mgm. But there are three scum and there is onl 1/3rd of a Roleblocker. That's 90%, damn good odds.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ether, it would be appreciated if you voted for Channel.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You really should read the front page, Nightfall.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There's nothing wrong with my maths. There is, on average, 0.33 of a Roleblocker in this game currently and 3 scum. Channelblocker and Channelscum would both claim blocker, which he did. Chance of him being scum: 3/3.33 = 10/11, close to 90%.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

A roleblocker is way more expendable, though, especially after that no-lynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Someone should probably vote for Channel now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

M-maybe you should vote for him?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We could just lynch him, you know? That'd work too.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That's a silly assumption and hardly relevant.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, for one, I like to hammer.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In my experience, people tend to be reluctant to hammer claimed power roles.

I also don't trust you, and I have a lingering fear that you won't actually vote for CDB.

And that's just plain silly.

(Also, I claimed the hammer first and I haven't heard anyone else express interest.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In my experience, people tend to be reluctant to hammer claimed power roles.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Stop! Hammertime!

========[]

Hammah-Vote: ChannelDelibird

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Damn.

Now I understand [1145]. Off to look for his results.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility.

Vote: Thesp

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you look at how obvious Fritz was about the first innocent result, I don't think he had an innocent on you. I also don't really see why he would've investigated you. And he voted for Channel fairly early.

I did give my opinion on everybody yesterday, btb:

Town: Glrok, CES, Mgm, Fritzler

Scummity scum: ChannelDelibird, Thesp

Scum: Everyone else

It sucks, I know. That's why I don't do that sort of thing generally.

I want to know exactly why you're so sure that Thesp is a godfather. Explain everything to the tiniest detail. Quotes, post numbers, refernces, everything. Why do you think he was busing CDB from the start of the game? What else do you find scummy about his play? Thesp is the one player I trust the most in the game at this point -- his attitude towards CDB does NOT feel like a busing attempt AT ALL.

I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum. I personally have no trouble reading it as a bussing attempts. He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people. I mean, he drew attention to Channel, but I don't hold him responsible for the Channellynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

Simple. He's scum. Lynching scum is good.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You'd better!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You guys suck. It's rare enough for to actually catch scum and you go and ignore me.

Unvote

Now I have to re-read again and try and find that final scumbag.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, you know I haven't used any sort of "playstyle" defense. Yes, I wagon early on. This game is in that aspect much like Space Monkeys. The difference is that this time I've changed gears. All I did in Space Monkey was wagon and get quicklynched.

I gave reasons for Channel-Thesp in my last couple of posts, dude. Are you paying attention?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, you are confusing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: CES how can you think that a lynch an "investigated innocent". Why jump right to the Godfather theory?

Dude, we have 2 scum left. Obviously the investigation result reduces the chance he's scum, but not to the extent that I now think he's town. He also didn't shy away from attention like a Goon would, so I kinda thought he was more likely to be the Godfather anyhow. We have one Godfather and one Goon left. He's scum, but he can't be the goon. Ergo, he's the Godfather.

If you want to draw a parallel to another game here, Glrok, I'd say it'd be Two-Headed. I totally knew Djelibeybi was scum, but I was completely incapable of getting the town to lynch him.

Thesp, nice OMGUS.

Seriously, town, when I'm dead, trust me. I am right about Thesp. I'm not making this up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, I re-read Zindie's posts and he looks town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And I was thinking about the Fritzkill. I'd say that Thesp was in an excellent position to notice Fritz had an innocent on him.

On a similar note, MBL, could you point out some specific posts by Glrok that you felt hinted at copness?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm strongly thinking people are overemphasizing general tendencies of how players play when they are Godfather as opposed to Goons.

I only had it 60-40 though. And Goons should be more afraid of investigation. It's not that I think Godfathers really seek out investigation, but they're not going to try and avoid it either.

You also indicate you recognize Fritzler's obvious copness early today, though it is impossible to ascertain whether this is before or after the fact has been revealed

When you re-read his posts with his copness in mind, it's easy, yeah. He didn't really try to hide it, it seems. And that last statement had struck a chord with me. It seemed out of place. His copness explained it.

Also noted: your suspicion of ChannelDelibird grows severely stronger when it's evident CDB will be the day's lynch.

My suspicion of ChannelDelibird grew severely stronger when he claimed. I made that very clear.

The second and fourth points are criticisms of your attacks and I certainly stand by my second statement. I don't see how the third would constitute a defense. I could not have known that MBL's "info" was bogus.

Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.

It's either a scum tell(in general) or it's not. You can't seriously be suggesting that it's a scum tell

in this game

. This is a silly point. Also, Channel is a lurker. I don't find scum with regularity. I'm however working on finding the final scum. I've already eliminated Glrok, Zindaras and Mgm.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You could point to Two-Headed, Glrok, although my stubbornness regarding Djelibeybi is somewhat harder to notice due to a claimed scum and the cult threat, both of which were more important than him being scummity scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Thesp had some fair points about CES changing fairly quickly on CDB

Are you talking about his blatant misrepresentation?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also noted: your suspicion of ChannelDelibird grows severely stronger when it's evident CDB will be the day's lynch.

This one. It completely fails to mention Channel's claim, the cause of my change in opinion. And if there's one pro-town thing that I'm proud of, it's that I'm not blinded by claims and that I can recognize that in many setups claiming a power role actually makes someone more likely to be scum. (In a 3 scum, 1 power role situation with plenty of incentive to try and draw out a counterclaim, this is especially true.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I wouldn't call that a blatant misrepresentation, CES. I actually got the same feeling, because I don't think you made it very clear that it was the roleclaim which changed your mind. Explaining it after the fact does not exempt you, so I see where Thesp was coming from.

Hmm. At the very least he should've mentioned it though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He helped to lynch scum but he seemed to want to understate the chances that we could have been lynching a power role.

It is called statistics!

~As for metegaming, I'm not certain, but I think when CES is protown, even when he is being snarky about it, he is a little bit more willing to discuss things and the possibility that others may be right.

Uh, no.

Thesp, weren't you the slightest bit interested in what MBL had found? I was under the impression that he had found something. Presumably, him sharing it would've helped in the Channel-lynch, no? (Even not taking into account, it is just a question. Poking around for more info is pro-town.)

And scum are incapable of making valid points?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I have to point out, again, that that final quote was an attack on you far more than it was in any way a defense of Channel.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That's definitely true. Fritz can be very obvious sometimes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You had assumed him to be lying?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Does it matter? If it doesn't, we're going to have to no-lynch at some point anyhow.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zindy, could you make me a case against Thesp? It would be appreciated. I'm sure you can find me something extra.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm feeling better and I have much more time now. I intend to re-read this game this week.

For the moment,

Vote: Nightfall

.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

MBL, I do not think Patrick is town nor do I know where you got that idea. My opinion on Zindy is mostly based on gut and metagaming. He feels like town to me this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What makes you uncomfortable about the move, Thesp? That we're getting closer to lynching your final goon, thereby rendering your innocent meaningless?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I finished my re-read and I'm happy about my vote.

I would like to bring this up again, though, because it's horribly scummy and it was mostly ignored the first time around:

Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.

Like I said then, it's either a scum tell in general or not at all. Channel doing the same thing can't possibly be relevant.

As an aside, 686 is still funny.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're just ignoring me because I'm already voting for Nightfall, right?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, but I would like you to pay attention to that quote I brought up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I agree, it's either in general or not at all. I suspect it is a tell in general - this is an instance of such a tell happening, and a bit of evidence that it might be a tell. (I recognize that in and of itself it's not a proof of any sort, just a poential indication.)

One incidence is not statistically significant as I'm sure there have been lots of people who have done this. If you think it's a scum tell, explain. Pointing out Channel did it does not support the hypothesis that it is a scum tell, but what does it do is link me to Channel in the mind of the reader.

Also, my playstyle is wholly unlike Channel's. Even if Channel's actions were significant, blindly applying that to me is still wrong, painfully wrong.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES is there "for the moment"

That was pre-re-read. I upgraded my vote from temporary to permanentish in [1314].

Also, MBL, you're short 8%(the percentages should add up to 200 as we have 2 scum, not 1.92).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Come on, Zindy, you can do it!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You do know that we won't suddenly value your opinion above our own if you do turn up town, right?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I agree it in and of itself is not statistically significant, but it's something I noticed. I don't feel like parsing through lots of old games looking for concrete examples, it feels like something I've seen scum do more than town, and it feels like something I would expect to see more from scum than town (i.e. I find it significantly less likely to be something town would do than scum from a behavioral standpoint).

I don't think you need to include an example at all. You can just explain why scum do it more often than town. Or you can say something like "in my experience".

Can't you see my problem with that quote? The example you add doesn't support your line of reasoning to a significant extent but it does subtly link me to Channel. That is clearly scummy.

It's this particular argument, that you always play bizarre and different, that makes me feel you're skating by without anyone giving you serious attention.

It's not the nature of my playstyle that matters here, but rather merely the fact that it differs from Channel's. What is a scum tell for one, might be a town tell for another. Do you think I would be more likely to do it as scum or as town? Again, Channel doesn't enter into the equation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Again, I have serious problems with this argument (whether voiced, as here, or implicit) that you should be treated different because you're CRAAAAAAAAAAZYYYYYYYYY!!!!

Wrong. I should be treated differently because I am different. So is Glrok. This is not about my playstyle, something I stated explicitly. Scum tells are only useful if you know how to apply them. It's about understanding and insight, not about rules.

Also, why are you voting for Nightfall? I missed that part. You've glossed over this while showing "activity" by attacking me. This reminds me of an instance where another player, who was scum...nevermind, you don't want to hear it.

My response to Ether's analysis contains the more concrete reasons for my vote. Why would you even consider adding an example in this case? What would it add?

It's worth asking whether we should lynch Nightfall or not, with Zindaras getting modkilled at deadline. Would it be best to find out Zindaras's alignment before killing anyone else? Or do we want to double lynch today?

Personally I think I have a fairly good read on Zindie, so I see no reason to no lynch. I'd say it mostly means that we don't have to sacrifice info for a lynch at this time. I'd like a Nightfall lynch, obv, but there's no need to blindly put votes on near deadline.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That considered, CES appeared to have promoted me since the Move--I was previously on his "maybe" list with only two other non-Nightfall people. 'Something happen?

I don't remember (and I can't find) saying anything that would suggest that. You're still on my Maybe List along with MBL and Patrick. (Although you're probably the towniest of these three.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, Mgm, Mr Stoofer has set forth a clear policy regarding replacing and modkills. As such, his decision can give us no information.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I can't read MBL.

I've tried it in the past and it's never helped.

Glrok, I'm fairly sure you're town. You don't mind if I just blindly follow you on this one, do you? How sure are you?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Then I'll wait for his response. I still like a Nightfall-lynch.

What exactly is strange about my responses? I'm well aware of what I can and what I can't do. (Reading you and MBL respectively.) And you do possess scumhunting skills.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I knew the modkill was unavoidable. Still too bad. Looks like I was right about him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Now, Glrok, be fair. He's saying your opinion changed rather dramatically despite a general lack of new input, which does an sich constitute a valid argument, even if not a particularly strong one.

But MBL is most definitely downplaying Zindie's analysis post, something you, Glrok, mentioned as a distinct pro-town sign. Quite scummy.

Unvote, vote: MBL

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can't I trust Glrok? I know I have no read on him either way, so that's not factoring into my decision and Glrok doesn't have that title for nothing. (Also, I'm fairly sure Glrok is town.)

Unvote

though, as Glrok has done the same.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*gasp* You surely don't mean to say that people are occasionally wrong?! I'm gonna have to re-think my entire playstyle now.

Glrok is well aware of his history with MBL. I trust him to make the right judgment call.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, that was a useful post, Thesp. How insightful.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've requested extension, although I'd be surprised if he granted it.

Vote: Nightfall

, he's very probably the right lynch right now.