Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!


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Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2007 3:25 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

New Page Vote Count -- some movement at last!


Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Nightfall Thesp MBL)
Nightfall: 2 (Ether Glork)
Zindaras: 1 (Patrick)
MrBuddyLee: (Mgm)

Not voting: Zindaras CES

Looking for
5
votes for a lynch!


Deadline:
Friday 4th May 9.30am BST
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Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2007 7:22 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I'm feeling better and I have much more time now. I intend to re-read this game this week.

For the moment,
Vote: Nightfall
.
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Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2007 2:30 pm

Post by Nightfall »

I dont think I can say much to sway you guys. Even if I could I dont think I'd have the time needed for it. I am a townie. Throughout this game I went with what I thought was truthfully the best path / choices for the town. I really thought Andrew was scum, and I really didn't find anything horrid in CDB's posts. Overall this has actually been a pretty poor game for me I must say. (Sorry about that Stoof lol). Right now I am actually thinking that my lynch may provide others with further insight into peoples true allignments so it may be worth sacrificing myself. I want to ask you guys though, for a second, asume that I am truely town, do you guys think it would be worth lynching me for the info it would give?
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Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:13 pm

Post by Mgm »

Thesp wrote:What do you think about Nightfall?
There's far too many people I'd lynch rather than Nightfall. I find nightfall more compelling in his posts than Ether so if none of my suspects are lynched, I'd prefer Ether over Nightfall.
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Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:07 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Ether/Nightfall:
Ether "okay with a Zindilynch". Followed by a post with pretty much no analytical content about Zindy. And then the reiteration of eight points against Nightfall. I find most of them unconvincing and stretches of the imagination, and but this one was a legit albeit unusual observation:
Nightfall adds a summary at the end of his Channel PBP--this format made it the odd one out
and led me back to Nightfall's PBP post to see if Ether's reaction was what I'd consider appropriate.

Nightfall on Adele: he states flatly whether he agrees or disagrees with her most prominent D1 points.
on CDB: same, with added summary expressing potential concern after agreeing with most of CDB's D1 actions.
on CES: agrees and disagrees, finds fishing "odd".
on Ether: paints more vividly, alternatively attacking and defending. Points out "misunderstanding" by Ether twice and "don't know if this is scummy in itself". Appears to be genuinely trying to ascertain the nature of Ether's attacks.
on Fritz: uses Fritz's inactivity to defend himself and necessarily doesn't find Fritz scummy.
on Glork: focuses on Glork's playstyle. hesitant to directly attack Glork but makes passive-aggressive attacks seemingly designed to implicate.
Does not PBP on: MGM, MBL, Thesp, Zindy, etc (appears to have gone alphabetically)

Nightfall treats Glork with great caution trying not to give him fuel to counterattack with--apprehension is palpable and they are not likely scum together. He somewhat takes the township of Fritz for granted. He is using instances of Ether's "confusion" to draw suspicion upon her. Did not fuel the Adelewagon. Minimal analysis of CDB's minimalist play. Took a hard look at each of CES's D1 votehops.

What Ether pointed out is not what stands out to me about Nightfall's PBP. At all. The two things that stand out to me are the degree of second degree analysis (how he feels about what X said about Y), which I see as pro-town. And the choice to progress alphabetically as opposed to choosing a set of most likely suspects, which I don't see as pro-town at all. What she pointed out about Nightfall's D3 behavior is not accurate--he stated several times that he wasn't convinced of CDB's scumminess and indicated that was based on rereadings.

Ether's shooing people away from the CESwagon based on her opinion of Nightfall, not based on CES's actions. Her comments on CES are that she won't even try to read him, that she's waiting for other alignments before judging CES, and that "His Thesp fanaticism is getting in the
way
(italics hers); otherwise, I'd hardly care. I won't touch CES in the near future unless Nightfall dies as town".

Zindaras:
If he has limited time, his decision to chip away at the game with PBPAs from day one is bizarre. He had to know he likely wouldn't make it to D4's posts, and I see commenting on D1 only as suspiciously safe behavior. I asked him for gut, as I'm sure he's skimmed/followed the thread, and he hemmed and hawed rather than spitting it out. The biggest hole in this game is info about connections between Zindy and anyone. In subsequent days, survivors should look at who strayed in tone and zeal from expected behavior re zindy: expression of dismay and disappointment and moderate suspicion for lurking.

CES:
Very selective in who he attacks and who he doesn't. Got fixated on Thesp and is riding it. Takes no pokes at me, one FOS of Ether and one vote on Nightfall and no other comments on validity, one brief poke at and FOS of Patrick. Says MGM is town, Patrick is town, Glork is town, Zindy is town. These suspicions and lack thereof look about as considered as you'd get from a RNG. Not only is there no explicit reasoning behind his suspicions, but I can't conceive of the "worldview" that would lead him to his current and apparently firm beliefs.

CES, why are Zindy and Patrick town in your book?

Glork:
I read him as cop and when rereading today in a different light I see a few things. His attacks on Zindaras look like someone going through the motions. He voted Ether for a heretofore unexplained reason, then after a "confusing" post by her, unvoted and not only revoted Zindaras but added me as a major FOS, erasing any hint of his Ether suspicions. Appears to be purely sheeping onto Nightfall, as he's given nearly no analytical comments on Nightfall's lengthy posts. His vacillation between Ether and Nightfall seems incomprehensible.

April 5:
Vote Ether
April 20:
Pretty sure I remember saying "HAY ZINDIE, POST OR DIE" and "I like Ether's attack on Nightfall."
April 25:
Unvote, Vote: Nightfall
Glork, I want to hear more on this turnaround. Also, the case that you're cooking up against me looks remarkably like the case I'm considering with regards to your play yesterday:
dirty scumbag jumping aboard to bus his scumbuddy
(he) knew CDB was screwed, likely because of a Cop investigation, so he decided to look like one of the guys taking CDB down, and then he became responsible for the nightkill of Fritz.
I reread your post history and actually spotted the moment when you realized Fritz was a cop. It was March 16th, halfway through your post, and you suddenly realize Thesp is about to be publicly cleared and you start linking people left and right to CDB. Zindaras, Ether, Nightfall, MGM, MBL, Patrick. Followed less than an hour later by your "knowstuff" comment. And then this odd remark:
I still believe that Thesp is very likely pro-town.
You were suspicious of Thesp as a potential scumpartner of CDB up until halfway through your (Analysis III) when you spotted a coptell. "still believe" implying that you've believed that for some time? Cause you definitely hadn't. You appear to be attempting to anchor yourself as a Thespophile and CDB antagonist, instead of explaining yourself, which would have been unfeasible regardless of your alignment. You attack me for nearly identical behavior, which I don't understand you doing if you're town who just went through a similar revelation as you say you did.

I'd also like to hear you explain why you thought Fritz was a cop and not CES or Thesp.

Patrick:
Dingling around with MGM at the start of the day, somewhat defensive in the face of attacks from an "innocent". Brief analysis of the CES wagon and asks for some literature on its pros and cons. Expresses unambiguous preference for a Zindy death, stating there's a "strong case" for it. Theorizes that scum were not on the CDB wagon and were on the CES wagon, which by process of elimination gives us only Nightfall. Patrick wasn't thrilled to be linked to Nightfall, hasn't found Nightfall scummy most of the game, said twice that he wasn't watching Nightfall closely. Curious focus on disentanglement.

Patrick, what do you think of the case Ether made against Nightfall in March?
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Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:37 am

Post by Patrick »

MBL wrote: Theorizes that scum were not on the CDB wagon and were on the CES wagon, which by process of elimination gives us only Nightfall.
Not quite what I said. I just observed the different speeds of the bandwagons, it's certainly possible CDB was bussed by someone. I could see Nightfall/MBL as scum jumping on CES, though one feels more likely than both being scum if you ask me. Could see it as a counter to a Zindaras wagon.
MBL wrote:Curious focus on disentanglement.
Not sure what this means.. mind clarifying?
MBL wrote:Patrick, what do you think of the case Ether made against Nightfall in March?
I made a post lost in the crash saying I liked what Ether had said, and that it was the first time I'd seen her make a convincing case against Nightfall. Previous attacks didn't do much for me, including March attack. I didn't like being linked to Nightfall, and still don't think the link made sense. But then again I don't like being linked to anybody in particular.

MBL, if I asked you for a list at this point, how would it read and why?
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Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:51 am

Post by Glork »

MBL: My vote for Ether was pure pressure. I wanted her to post something significant. I liked her case against Nightfall, I've had lingering suspicions of Nightfall (in spite of the fact that I also found Ether somewhat suspicious). All of this was lost in the crash.

I have also already explained why I thought Fritz was a cop: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 406#574406

I was not picking up any coptells from CES, and Thesp was certainly not behaving like a Cop. Mostly, though, it's the fact that Fritz's "X is pro-town" play is so
exclusively
a sign that he's a Cop (or, at least, that he has reliable role information) that I couldn't see him doing it as either a Townie or a Mafiate.

I would also like to point out that your comment me saying "I still believe Thesp is pro-town" is a misrepresentation. The word
still
is in there because I was responding to CES's point that Thesp misreported deadline lynch rules. If you look at the context of that post, it should be fairly clear that the sentence reads "Even though Thesp told us the wrong deadline-lynch rules, I believe that he is pro-town." The "still" should read "in spite of X."

I like what you're trying to do with the whole "look at you suddenly turn on CDB" thing. But you're pretty much completely wrong. First of all, even if I were scum and thought FritzCop and ThespTown, that would give me no incentive to suddenly want to bus CDB. Thesp was the only person attacking CDB at the time; Fritz didn't start voting CDB until I basically told him to do so. I don't understand how realizing Fritz was a Cop would suddenly give me the drive to bus CDB. Secondly, I can say with 100% confidence and honesty that if I thought Fritz were a cop during my re-read, it would
NOT
change my opinions that much as scum. Look back at Mafia 49 when I correctly picked out FritzCop as scum and said or did *NOTHING* to change my stance. I reported to my scumbuddies that night and we killed him. Plain and simple. It makes no sense whatsoever for me to go "Hay, I know Fritz is the Cop and I'm changing my stance because of it" as scum. Continue along the same track (going after Zindie/CES mostly) and just off Fritz quietly in the night.

However, your case isn't quite the same. When you came to your realization, there was already a substantial voting bloc (Thesp, Glork, Fritz) on CDB -- and you *KNEW* that none of us would be moving, because Fritz knew Thesp was town and I knew that both were town (both cases barring ThespGF, of course). You have
every
reason to jump aboard and try to gain some footing with that bloc, which is why it makes far more sense for you to be the CDB-buser than me.

MBL, what do you think of the interactions between me and CDB during Days 1 and 2? Do you think they're indicative of a scumpairing?
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Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:27 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

MBL, I do not think Patrick is town nor do I know where you got that idea. My opinion on Zindy is mostly based on gut and metagaming. He feels like town to me this game.
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Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:17 am

Post by Zindaras »

I'm having such a horrible week.

I'll review pre-deadline.
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Finished: 159 (120 Town, 33 Mafia, 5 Other, 1 Cult, 4 Cultivated)
68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
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Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
59 Survived, 31 Lynched, 60 Killed
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Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:18 am

Post by Glork »

Zindaras wrote:I'm having such a horrible week.

I'll review pre-deadline.
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Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:03 am

Post by Patrick »

I think we should have 5 people send in votes for deadline extension/wipeout, since Stoofer has given us the option.
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Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:19 pm

Post by Nightfall »

Nightfall treats Glork with great caution trying not to give him fuel to counterattack with--apprehension is palpable and they are not likely scum together. He somewhat takes the township of Fritz for granted. He is using instances of Ether's "confusion" to draw suspicion upon her. Did not fuel the Adelewagon. Minimal analysis of CDB's minimalist play. Took a hard look at each of CES's D1 votehops.
The truth? I'm a little scared of Glork. I think he's a really good player and if he is scum he would likely over time be able to lead me on and get me thinking a little less for myself and more following his lead. Because I don't really want to risk letting him influence me, I tred very carefully when we speak.
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Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Sat Apr 28, 2007 2:45 am

Post by Thesp »

I'm uncomfortable with CES's sudden move to Nightfall.
Unvote: Cogito Ergo Sum, Vote: Zindaras.
I'm still happiest with a CES lynch.
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Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 4:38 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

What makes you uncomfortable about the move, Thesp? That we're getting closer to lynching your final goon, thereby rendering your innocent meaningless?
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Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 4:44 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I finished my re-read and I'm happy about my vote.

I would like to bring this up again, though, because it's horribly scummy and it was mostly ignored the first time around:
Thesp[1208] wrote:Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.
Like I said then, it's either a scum tell in general or not at all. Channel doing the same thing can't possibly be relevant.

As an aside, 686 is still funny.
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Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 4:51 am

Post by Glork »

Thesp, you should seriously vote for Nightfall.

MBL, I'd like to hear a response to my most recent post. I'd also like you to drop the hammer on your scumbuddy Nightfall.
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Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:07 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

You're just ignoring me because I'm already voting for Nightfall, right?
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Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:08 am

Post by Glork »

I don't really have anything to say about you. You're already voting Nightfall, so I don't need to tell you to do so. And you're less likely than MBL to be scum, so I don't need to remind everybody of that fact.


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Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:11 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

No, but I would like you to pay attention to that quote I brought up.
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Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:17 am

Post by Glork »

*shrug*

I don't see why what he did is "horribly scummy." He
did
make a point in that you were still avoiding any kind of List of Suspcions. Though his CDB comment was a little over-the-top, I don't necessarily see that as an indication of scumminess.
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Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 1:15 pm

Post by Thesp »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:What makes you uncomfortable about the move, Thesp?
That you voted him without explanation, and I still think you're the scummiest one out there. I have a suspicion that most people are thinking, "Oh that's just CES, he always plays crazy" and aren't analyzing your play.
Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I would like to bring this up again, though, because it's horribly scummy and it was mostly ignored the first time around:
Thesp wrote:Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.
Like I said then, it's either a scum tell in general or not at all. Channel doing the same thing can't possibly be relevant.
I agree, it's either in general or not at all. I suspect it is a tell in general - this is an instance of such a tell happening, and a bit of evidence that it might be a tell. (I recognize that in and of itself it's not a proof of any sort, just a poential indication.)
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Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 9:12 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Vote Count


Nightfall: 3 (Ether GlorkCES)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 2 (Nightfall MBL)
Zindaras: 2 (Patrick Thesp )
MrBuddyLee: (Mgm)

Not voting: Zindaras

Looking for
5
votes for a lynch!


Deadline:
Friday 4th May 9.30am BST


I have had 3 requests for an extension - I am therefor proceeding on the basis that the majority of you want to keep the deadline. Any further deadline requests must be by PM (I will ignore requests posted in the thread).
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Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 9:41 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Thesp wrote:I agree, it's either in general or not at all. I suspect it is a tell in general - this is an instance of such a tell happening, and a bit of evidence that it might be a tell. (I recognize that in and of itself it's not a proof of any sort, just a poential indication.)
One incidence is not statistically significant as I'm sure there have been lots of people who have done this. If you think it's a scum tell, explain. Pointing out Channel did it does not support the hypothesis that it is a scum tell, but what does it do is link me to Channel in the mind of the reader.

Also, my playstyle is wholly unlike Channel's. Even if Channel's actions were significant, blindly applying that to me is still wrong, painfully wrong.
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Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:49 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Requesting an extension. I want to hear more from Zindaras, and I think we're not done with today, even though the day's grown insufferably long.

Glork, your posts D1/2 re: CDB are unremarkable. His posts regarding you don't strike me particularly as aggressive framing of town or distancing from a scumpartner. Him saying you were "strange" is the closest I see to anything notable, as it caught my eye as possible sloppy distancing.

Patrick, I don't like the push on Nightfall and think either-and-or Ether, Glork CES could be scum fomenting it. Nightfall's D1 posts still read to me as earnest town. The resistance to the CES-wagon (and Zindy-wagon that never materialized) comes in the form of the Nightfall wagon. Ether gives a list of ho-hum reasons, Glork sheeps and CES super-sheeps. Glork is pushing Nightfall as "today's play", CES is there "for the moment" and Ether is convinced. Nightfall considers suicide to be potentially beneficial to town, which is bizarre.

Thesp is a very good player who I could see spotting a weak scumpartner D1 and deciding to push for his lynch until he drops. However, he's off the table as far as I'm concerned due to gamestate and odds.

Zindaras appears to be reveling in the fact that despite being a zero factor, no one's willing to lynch him. I don't see that as pro-town, and if the average person is 25% likely to be scum, I'd put Zindy more at 40% due to the way he's floated in and out.

MgM's on me, and I fully expected town to take a serious look at my actions yesterday and wonder WTF. I also expected scum to take a poke or two at making hay, but I think Glork's attacks on me look more like a wolf hunting weak sheep than MgM's. All game, MgM has done illogical things but his tone seems fairly thoughtful.

Zindaras 40%
CES 30%
Glork 30%
Ether 25%
Nightfall 20%
Patrick 20%
Thesp 35% / 2 = 17%
MgM 20% / 2 = 10%
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Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Sun Apr 29, 2007 11:07 pm

Post by Patrick »

Ok. I'll probably post more sometime later today, but I'm assuming MBL was not one of the 3 who asked for a deadline extension before, which means that with him asking we have 4 votes for it. I recommend someone else who hasn't yet done so to vote for extension. The day is long timewise but not particularly long in posts or content.

MBL, it's strange that you are voting CES and not Zindaras, since Zindaras seems to be your top suspect percentage wise.
Primpod 11:13 pm
chamber can you please come to ukmeet
i would love to finally touch your face

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