Mini #1007 (Game Over)
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Really, I had no choice. Just think if I left it, and was responsible for one or two town PR deaths? Of course, there is the chance of hitting scum if I can play well enough to attract the night kill. Knowing me, I'd be likelier to attract doctors and investigation roles if I didn't claim, though. Ever played with a PGO before, Vel? What are your current thoughts about how I should be treated?Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Why make the claim now? I think that's a waste of a potential Town NK. Best case scenario is that you're now guaranteed to be in LyLo with the last Mafia and an unconfirmed Townie who've cross-voted and you have to make the final decision.-
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Hoopla
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AGar, what would you have done if Vel-Rahn Koon claimed PGO Day 1, instead of me? Would you still feel this way?-
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Hoopla
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Can you explain what the scum motivation would be for me to fake-claim in this instance,knowingthat you have witnessed me do this as a miller before? I'm well aware this will improve my chances of being lynched (even more so with your knowledge of my scum game), but the rewards of this claim certainly isn't worth that risk as scum. For me, the prevention of town PR's deathes takes precedence over my own survival, which was the catalyst for my decision to claim.-
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Hoopla
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AGar wrote: Third, you may not have even connected me with this game and 909 until I brought it up. You have 10 other completed games in 2010 according to your wiki. Sure, if you're keen on your memory, you might remember every player who you played with in each specific game. But most people aren't.
Keen observation, but I can assure you I remember that game vividly. Perhaps this is because I usually only play one or two games at a time - there is nothing that gets lost in the mess. I'm sure I could cite 70% of a playerlist in any game I've surivived longer than a day in, because I know I always invest a lot of time and effort into games. I'd be disappointed if I lost such memories.AGar wrote: Conversely to your question - had I not brought it up, would you have honestly remembered that I was in the game where you fake-claimed a miller as scum?
So, of course I know and remember. I even knowyouremember about that game as you were talking about elsewhere on site (here).
Preview Edit:Vel, see the above point.-
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Hoopla
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Eyes everywhere, my friend;AGar wrote:But, again, nothing in that post shows that I read more than the OP, so how are you to know from that post alone that I know that you claimed miller falsely.
Unless you're claiming to have posted this message without reading what Amished had to say. You know I fakeclaimed miller as scum that game, and I know you knew. I don't even know why you're trying to argue this.AGar wrote:
Lol I helped. He refused to read his role PM. It was a policy lynch. Cyberbob and I actually spearheaded that wagon and we were town lol.Amished wrote:Oh yeah. Stupid scum lynching Quag and ruining everything; he could've killed Hoopla miller's claim....-
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Hoopla
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Redtail; I acknowledge the point of possibly claiming later in the day, after we've had the RVS and some discussion. A small part of claiming early was to fast-forward straight to discussion, as there aredefinitelydiffering motives between town and scum in dealing with an early PGO claim. And isn't this the point of discussion, unearthing the differing motives?
I'll be happy to share my deductions once we have had a few more players post, but I can assure you I'm already nursing an ample resevoir of notes.-
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Hoopla
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You (and Vel) both were the ones to bring up points that I might not have remember we were in the game together, or I may not have known Iknewyou would remember my miller claim. You were both using these points to discredit my claim, or suggest I didn't know if I would be pulled up on it.
Right here, you are the one to put importance on this avenue of discussion.AGar wrote: The scum motivation remains the same - attempt to avoid targeting by pro-town roles while trying to play the move off as pro-town. The question really lies in how much did you think about your potential gambit, and how much you thought about how each player would play into it.
Again, the reason I claimed, was because the risks of killing town PR's were truly not worth the risk of staying quiet. I did this even knowing you would bring this up. And I think I have proved sufficiently that I knew you would bring this up. Are you in favour of policy lynching on Day 1?-
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Hoopla
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I'm also in the Shotty is VI camp, I don't know exactly what to do with him, but he definitely needs to lift his game. Notably, over the last page or so, we're starting to have a real swing towards this player without the representation of votes for him. Gunning for VI-blood is usually a safe place for scum to reside their vote because it's something that cannot realistically be challenged. Something scum love. More over, it's easy to tell if a VI/lurker is scum just by the way the rest of the town deals it. It's early still, but I'm really pleased with the information we have generated. Hopefully the wagon on myself falls away soon though, because it is a real 1911 trigger job.
A couple of questions I need to ask;
Shotty;did you genuinely vote randomly, coming into the game? I find it hard to believe of all people you somehow got lucky and voted the one player with a bandwagon on her. I think it's likelier that you're lying than this 1/11 chance happening.
AGar;you seem to be finding it difficult to find any town motivation for my claim, jumping to hasty conclusions. Hypothetically speaking, how would you have played the PGO if you were dealt that hand?-
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Hoopla
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Not at all. That was very astute play to leave it this long - you could have come swashbuckling in, linking this game before anyone took the bait, but you didn't. And you have timed your play perfectly.Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla, I waited for each other player to post so you could get reactions to your claim. I hope you won't mind that I'll speak now.
In case you are wondering what Hoopla is doing, look at Mini 973 (including the post-game comments). Hoopla, well done for making that game so memorable! By the way, you'll notice that in my first game, which I linked to, yabbaguy and I commented on Mini 973 in the post-game comments!I hereby unclaim PGO.
For those perplexed by this tactic, let me reassure you it was a deliberate ploy to skip the RVS and extract information from the game early. I have loose philosophies revolving around scum needing to be unsettled to get genuine reactions, and I think early roleclaims are one way of doing this. The beauty of PGO claims are they have different effects on either alignment, causing it to be rich with juicy information. This role is extremely damaging to scum if the claim is widely believed (see the game G&H talks about), as it is essentially an innocent player scum can't remove. Because of this, scum and town have different motivations to dealing with the claim. Town players will be trying to gauge whether it is true or not, whilst scum have a vested interest in ensuring the player doesn't get thought of as town, and if possible, put some suspicion on them. They are two very different goals, and even if they are subconcious, many of these posts are dripping with clues, ripe for analysis.
I will be doing some follow-up posts shortly on what we have seen so far, but if anyone has any questions about this play, let them be spoken now.-
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Hoopla
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I'm unclaiming PGO. I am not a PGO. I half-expected someone not to believe this was my intention afterward, so I was careful to leave a breadcrumb, showing it wasn't a real claim. Here;Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Hoopla: Why should this explanation be any more believable than what you came up with in regards to AGar's arguments against you?
The first letter of each sentence (well, minus the first one). My reasons as previously stated were my intentions, and this breadcrumb at the time of my claim should show my mindset, and that it was deliberate.Hoopla wrote:Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:Why make the claim now? I think that's a waste of a potential Town NK. Best case scenario is that you're now guaranteed to be in LyLo with the last Mafia and an unconfirmed Townie who've cross-voted and you have to make the final decision.
Really, I had no choice.ust think if I left it, and was responsible for one or two town PR deaths?Jf course, there is the chance of hitting scum if I can play well enough to attract the night kill.Onowing me, I'd be likelier to attract doctors and investigation roles if I didn't claim, though.Kver played with a PGO before, Vel? What are your current thoughts about how I should be treated?E-
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Hoopla
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Because the gambit had run it's course. Everyone has commented, and we now have a series of reactions to sift through all addressing the claim. When you've got differing reactions to same event, it is very simple to draw comparisons, as the variables are the same for everyone. The one thing we're looking for is the differing motivations.redtail896 wrote:So, I have a really dumb question that immediately popped into my mind upon reading you previous post Hoopla. Why did you unclaim?-
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Hoopla
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AGar is quite probably town. His fiery and definitive position on my claim certainly is not what I expect a typical scum mindset to be. He was quick to cite the game we were involved in together with my fakeclaim, and it's obvious this was a bias shaping his opinion on my claim. But when you look at the way he argues (especially early on page 2), you can definitely see a sense of paranoia, something he wouldn't be influenced by if he were scum. If he were scum, he would be exploiting my meta to slander my name (and in a sense, hewasdoing that), but this is a natural piece of information to debate with as both alignments. But I stress, the most important thing is the steadfast, definitive position he takes on my claim, which is a good indication of paranoia (a trait likelier to be town).
As scum, the instinctive way of playing is to keep options open, because boxing yourself into one mindset is a dangerous position to be in if it goes awry. You'll often see scum offer opinions on something with an air of flexibility, an air of wriggle room - some small, subtle spin on words or a less-than-whole commitment, so they can shift a different way on that view if necessary. The PGO is the perfect example of something that can be analysed for these tells. And the strongest tell I have unearthed is AGar's one-minded approach to my claim, which is in no way the way scum would deal with such an event. It is passionate and fiery, and reading his responses to my question about the town motivations, he doesn't give them due consideration, and though a mistake to make as townie, it's something scum would be careful to filter into an argument.
It's far likelier in my view, that scum have taken a mostly middling view of this event, and players like redtail, ConfidAnon and Elleran are those that tick that box mostly, for me. Almaster and Vel take neutral positions on the claim, but attack the meta arguments I debated with early on, and it feels strange how similar both their attacks were. Even though it is far too early to hunt scumpairs, I feel confident they aren't scum together, as it would be an odd scum play to espouse a shared view on something that has such a scope for varied opinions.
Though I will be accused of probabilistic reasoning, I think it is a reasonable guess to think I've one scum on my wagon, and it seems a tough pick to guess who, if any. The Shotty, late random vote on me was just bizarre, and reeks of VI, and usually I think I'm good at figuring out these characters, but I don't know. I think one of Vel/Almaster is likelier to be scum, and it's an avenue I want to pursue, because I've derived associative tells between them which gives more information if one flips scum.
I know this will be my first vote, so I can't criticise the way the game is going so far, but I think I must say it is about time everyone not voting to put one down. There have been enough significant events to hedge an opinion either way on someone. And most importantly, votes/wagons give vital information later in the game, so I urge all you non-voters to drop a vote in your next post.
Vote: Vel-Rahn Koon
I would love some support for this, by the way. I know my case makes logical jumps, but I actually feel good about this vote.-
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Hoopla
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As did all three of the scum. We were all on that wagon, because policy lynches are hilariously bad for towns, and such safe places for scum votes.AGar wrote: Off of the top of my head, I pushed a policy lynch on Quagmire D1 for not reading his role PM in 909-
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Hoopla
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Sounds like scum trying to shoo the PR's into the corner on dear old Hoopla, so it stays off him. The point of the claim was to generate information in the day, you know, the only thing most of us townies can actually control.Elleran wrote:Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum.
Elleran, drop a vote on someone. Who are you most suspicious of?-
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Hoopla
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My point, I suppose I didn't eloquently sum up, was that they both had neutral reactions to the claim, but still found additional reasons to further the wagon. You're right though, they were different enough to warrant a proper distinction.AGar wrote:Hoopla, I don't see the similarities in Vel's and Almaster's arguments. Vel attacked you for the holes he found in the logic of your defense against the meta argument, but Almaster basically latched on to my meta argument and ran with that.-
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Hoopla
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It doesn't explicitely exempt AGar from my suspicions, but he is a town read at the moment, and I have no interest in following it up now. The point of this game is reading people and try to figure out their alignment, and though I don't understand his 'meta and strategy' well, it is a general enough tell to clear him today. As we receive further information in the game, ie; card flips, more bandwagons for vote analysis and role information, this of course is subject to change. Why exactly are you complaining about my claim of figuring out AGar's alignment? If you want to challenge my declaration, go ahead.Elleran wrote: First, your explanation sounds like it exempts AGar from your suspicions. Because you and AGar have played a game (or more) together before, you guys can easily read each other's meta and understand each other's strategy without direct PM or communication.
The rest of your post is flimsy, and Kid Know Nothing does a good job of summarising my theory in a simpler way. This following quote is particularly daft, though;
Each individual player here will have varying opinions on who is suspicious, and if they can't get that person lynched, they are suffering the same risk as you point out - leaving a suspicious player alive in lylo. Your argument basically means this; you're suspicious, and I don't want to leave suspicious characters alive. Well, duh.Elleran wrote:Second, I support lynching liars. I cannot disagree on your point that your claim/unclaim has brought many valuable discussion into place. However, I do not want to risk having a suspicious character in any LyLo situation. I understand this is a far-in-the-future argument, but lynching early poses less risk than later.
Explain why I am suspicious, rather than the risks, because I can safely apply that argument to anyone in the game. Also, I debate whether I was lying or not in the first place, as I breadcrumbed my motivations in my post. If I claimed it wasn't a real claim WITHOUT leaving crumbs, surely then I would be caught in a contradiction or lie, or making something up after it had happened. But I have proved what I was doing was a plan to draw information out, and the only qualm you can have with this, is if you think it was a negative influence on the game. And you yourself, in the very same paragraph stated it generated valuable discussion.
I'd likely be voting you now, but I want to hear from Vel first, before I consider shifting my vote.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I did not know, though I would have unclaimed soon after. I was still waiting on the last players to post before that could happen. I actually thought someone else would have picked up on it a lot sooner than it did, but this was a good amount of time to leave it to get the game going.Good and Honest wrote:Hoopla, did you actually know that I knew about Mini 973? If I hadn't mentioned it, would you have unclaimed and if so, when?
I didn't mention it before, but redtail's contribution to Almaster wagon is convincing. I'm waiting on the final results of the newbie game he is in before I understand him a little better as a player, but I think he is town. I think AGar is town and I think G&H and Kid Know Nothing feel town too, though these are more gut based reads.
Scum:
Almaster/Vel
Elleran/ConfidAnon
Unsure:
Zach
Shotty
gonnano
Again, these are preliminary reads, but as far as D1 reads go, I feel pretty good about them. Of those in my scum category, I've paired those players together, because I don't think they're scum with each other. One or two of those names will be scum, though. Elleran's recent play is rather odd, and I don't like his idea to withhold information for an entire day - it reeks of scum trying to buy time with a (possibly non-existant) bargaining chip.-
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Hoopla
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My wagon was AGar, You, Almaster and at one point Shotty. I've developed a town read on AGar, which leads me to believe that one of you three are scum. It seems like probabalistic reasoning, but I think I can justify it based on the opportunity my claim presented scum with. It was a simple place to stow away a vote, because there were multiple reasons to do it, with policy and my meta arguments being the main one. And if I know scum, they are generally likelier to seek safe votes early in the game than town, who are in the dark, and less concerned about the way they appear. Because you and Almaster voted me in a similar fashion, not for my claim, but for other actions, it feels like you were trying to further the wagon without being appearing to be in favour of policy. As for shotty, I have no idea what to think, but I am feeling town VI and want him to replace out if he isn't going to play the game properly.Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:@Hoopla, please answer my points in 107. You've switched votes for no reason, but in your lastest post I'm still scummy enough to warrant a vote. I'd rather have Town lay out their arguments so that the rest of us can see what you're thinking, assuming you're Town. You can answer that as well while you're at it.
I suppose it's mostly gut that separates you from Almaster, and I don't expect everyone else to read into this information the same way as I. But if one of you flipped scum, it would likely indicate the other as town I feel, as I don't think scumpartners would so blatantly follow another on to such a wagon. It doesn't prove anything if either of you flip town, because town/town is still a viable option.
I'm voting Elleran now because he is inidividually the scummiest player in the game now, and his weak backtracking and flipflopping seems awfully like scum realising he's in a corner that could get illuminated, and wants to shuffle away quietly. His thoughts on my argument with AGar are also bizarre and seem contrived, and like filler - extra things to fill a post, that look like something, but actually isn't. There's a lot of his play that feels like filler - non-commital, non-probing stuff to fill space. I'm hesitant to declare this as active lurking, because his play has been weird enough to be noticable, but his one commitment he made in this game (the vote on me), he withdrew in his next post after I attacked him. This is scum walking on eggshells, trying not to offend.
Shotty, if you're bored, replace out. Because you're making the game less fun for everyone with this type of attitude and style of play.drmyshottyizsik wrote:Idk just bored and this game feels like its going no where.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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If you turn out to be lying as town, I will rally to have you banned from the site. Just saying.
If you're just scum, I encourage the real doctor to counterclaim now, even though in other situations, it might be better to wait a little longer. I'd prefer to take the scum D1 lynch.
If you're really a doctor, then you played poorly, claiming for no reason. You'll either be killed (not a bad thing, I suppose) or roleblocked and left alive for wifom purposes. It's the latter that I am worried about.-
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Hoopla
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I want to answer this with; your buddies haven't decided to bus you yet. The next one or two or the wagon will get town credit in my eyes, so don't delay and leave the bus until late.Elleran wrote: @Hoopla: How has my playing been weird and noticeable yet no one except you has commented on it? Can you explain?
PREVIEW EDIT: Redtail, you're on fire with catching the inconsistancies. Nice spot on Elleran. That is classic scum talking because they need to, not because it's what they believe.-
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Hoopla
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Ooh, watch that powertrip. You'll undo all your good work.redtail896 wrote:Not so fast Hoopla; you get questions too.
I'll answer your questions together, because it covers the same material. I don't think OMGUS is a factor here - it rarely is anywhere in mafia outside of newbie games. His jump on and then off me was unusual, and could have been exacerbated by the pressure I exerted on him, but I don't think he was doing it just because I voted him. I think he thought the best way to approach me was to reattack me, though this mostly makes sense if he is scum. I don't understand his town motivation if there is one, but it is a major flipflop when he unvotes me and changes his policy on LAL.
I didn't catch your first inconsistancy you brought up on Elleran. You should be following up with a vote on Elleran, though. And if not, explain why Almaster is a better candidate.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Sorry, what bit is actually the typo? The bolded bit is meant to say pro-scum? I don't believe that. I think the version as it stands makes more sense, because your last sentence in the first post is justification that you can't trust me easily, which implies you would normally trust me - which makes your previous sentence look not like a typo at all.Elleran wrote:
The first post was a typo that I didn't catch. The second quote you made is correct. If you reread the post where the first quote came from, you can see that the sentence with the typo is inconsistent with the rest of the paragraph.redtail896 wrote:@Elleran:Two questions. #1 (emphasis mine)
Can you explain the bolded sentence? Specifically, I'm interested in how it interacts with this sentence:Elleran wrote:he early PGO claim seems odd. I've personally played with PGO before in real life games, and in most of those games, the PGO, even after a no-cc, early claim, ends up getting shot or killing a doctor or cop accidentally. The reason why PRs target the potential PGO is because Hoopla could be a VT (or even cop) just claiming PGO for safety.In my past life games, I have learned that early claims of PGO is a pro-town move.However, seeing AGar's argument that Hoopla has fake claimed before, I can't trust her so easily.Elleran wrote:Like I've already mentioned, I've played many times in real life games where the early PGO claim has been used before. In almost all of them, the claimer turns out to be fake.
Explain yourself better, because you look like you're just making it up.-
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Hoopla
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It makes it hard to prosecute anyone in this game if you can fall back on this defense safely.Elleran wrote:Okay, I reread my postagainand I guess I was distracted as I typed it. I don't know why I put the however there. Basically, the typo was 'pro-town' is supposed to be 'anti-town.' My 'hard to trust Hoopla' attitude is correct as written.
I'm not making anything up, Hoopla. Incredible or insignificant accidents as this can happen.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I think we need to work out this dilemma of what to do with Shotty. Firstly, I will ask Shotty, can you definitely confirm, that you're either a town doctor or scum? Because I have a good plan to sort this out, but I need to know you're not a complete idiot claiming doctor as a townie, or something else. Answer as soon as you can, please.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Okay, that is good enough for me. Thanks Shotty. You still really need to try a bit harder to help out the town, but I have a good proposal I want to put forth to the town. Here it is;drmyshottyizsik wrote:IClaim: DoctorI promise
A protection-role massclaim.
Here is the deal. We're quite likely playing in a game with a 3-mafia scum team, and on the off chance there is only 2, we should really be planning for the likely event of there being 3. In this case, we will only have three mislynches (barring a successful vig kill or stopping a scum night kill). It is far too big of a risk to waste a lynch on Shotty, without being reasonably sure he is scum. Luckily, I have a way of figuring this out - have some data;
Last 50 completed Closed 12-player Mini Normals:
Games with protection role - 43
Games without protection role - 7
What counts as a protection role? Doctor, Weak Doctor, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard, Macho Doctor, CPR Doctor, X-Shot Doctors.Importantly, there has only been one game with TWO protection roles in it, and that had two Macho Doctors (doctors that can't be protected, which thwarts the breaking strategy of the doctors cross-protecting each other).
This is why a protection-role massclaim is beneficial. It is highly likely that there is only one protection role, and if everyone else claims 'not a protection role' or 'a protection role', we can figure out with relatively strong conviction if Shotty is lying or not. If nobody claims they are a protection role, then this makes Shotty very likely to be the actual doctor, and he will soak up the scum night kill/roleblock, which frees up other PR's and fixes the problem of the VI distracting the town.
If someone else claims a protection role, we should consider this a counterclaim, and lynch Shotty. If Shotty flips town, then we lynch the counterclaimer. Why? Because in 50 games, there has been only one game with two protection roles, and those two roles were not traditional doctors anyway. Scum already know if Shotty is truthful or not, so there is nothing at stake here for the town. We're not giving scum extra information in order to execute this play which gives us a very strong understanding of Shotty's likelihood of being truthful or not.
What does everyone think of this?-
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Hoopla
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Why would we lynch a counterclaimer? That goes to assume the counterclaimer is lying, but any potential fake-counterclaimer has no incentive to do so, if it guarentees their lynch today or tomorrow, rather than staying quiet and likely living longer.drmyshottyizsik wrote:Sounds good to me. but maybe you should lynch the counter claimer first and if he's a doctor than lynch me.-
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Hoopla
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Statistically it is HIGHLY likely the town has ONE protection role. The only way we give away information is if we catch Shotty fakeclaiming.Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:meh. Sounds like PR fishing. If, statistically, we're dealing with only 1 protection role, why give the scum any more info?
If Shotty is town, scum know our protection role is Shotty. The town doesn't know this currently.
If Shotty is scum, it is true we are possibly sacrificing our real protection role to 'confirm' Shotty as scum, but this puts us in no worse position than we are in now if Shottyisa doctor. Except we now have the bonus of having a scum caught Day 1.
The only way this backfires is if there is ZERO or TWO town protection roles. This only counts as rolefishing if Shotty's claim is false, Vel. And if the sacrifice of our protection role 'proves' Shotty as scum, I'd like to do it. Doctors are not game-breaking roles for town. A Day 1 scum lynch is much more preferable. And then conversely, if nobody counters Shotty's claim, this at least 'proves' he is town and gives the town the same information scum already has.-
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Hoopla
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Maybe because they didn't think it was the right idea, and maybe because it wasn't a direct match too. A potential Jailkeeper or Bodyguard might be out there not counterclaiming because it wasn'tgonnano wrote:I'm on board for the protection role massclaim, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to lynch shotty straight away in the event of a counter... I'll have to think about that some more. For example, why wouldn't the counter claim have already happened? If Shotty is scum, I'm sure the real protection role would have had no problem convincing everyone to vote for shotty a few pages back.completelycontradictory. I'm here to squash this concept.
If someone countered right now, we must lynch Shotty, because there is such a low chance of there being TWO protection roles.
If nobody counters Shotty, it isn't as conclusive as the other possible result, but it is a strong chance he is town. I think this is the likely scenario in my eyes, and if this happens, we don't give the scum any information, as they already know who our protection role (Shotty) is.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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It's important to remember that if nobody does counterclaim, it is quite likely he is town though, and should be treated as such. Such a public recognition of trust also forces scum into killing off our VI too, when the scum-strategy of letting him live for WIFOM and possible mislynch purposes could have been a very attractive option. We have now prevented this possibility by highlighting this either/or scenario with Shotty.gonnano wrote:oh, and Shotty would have picked up a couple of scumpoints just now if he had any room left.-
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Hoopla
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Not as conclusive as the doctor statistics, and I must note, the last time I checked this piece of information, I only looked at 3:9 Closed set-ups. These are by far the most common set-ups in Little Italy, so they are still relevant, but remember this is only one segment of the pie;Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla, you say it's likely that there is a "Mafia Roleblocker" in this game. I know you love statistics about the game of Mafia so are you basing this supposition on statistics (and if so, would you share them?) or do you have other reasons to think so?
As for your concern about my idea, yes it requires trust in Shotty, which is why I followed up on this twice. You'll note every other fleeting moment of madness has been previously undone/changed/forgotten, so the recurring pattern makes me feel a little more secure. The way I see it is, IF Shotty is fakeclaiming as town, then this is already a very poisonous scenario for town that will fuck us over grandly (whichever way we play it - massclaim or not). We may as well take a risk (though it isn't as much a risk as you make out, I think), and opt for a play/scenario that gives us some reward if Shotty isn't being a total ball bag.-
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Hoopla
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In response to 2) - Are you kidding me? Going by the statistics, there is an 86% chance there is EXACTLY ONE protection role in the game. If I am scum with Shotty, he must be fakeclaiming, which means if this plan gains traction, there is an 86% chance of him being counterclaimed and then lynched.AlmasterGM wrote: 1) This is the second time Hoopla has made up some "plan" that revolves around town PRs.
2) If shotty is scum, Hoopla's plan looks VERY scummy.
3) If shotty is town, Hoopla probably is too. I don't see why scum-Hoopla would dig up stats that others were unlikely to produce in order to halt a mislynch on a VI.
AGar wrote:Let's say we're in 3:9, with no doc/protective role. It could happen.. We lynch either dr or the buddy, and the other remaining scum cruises on the "Well, I guess that proves that I'm the doc." Pulls the wool over the town's eyes and turns our own plan against us.dr is falseclaiming doctor as scum. One of his buddies, seeing this plan, decides "Hey, wait. I'll counter-claim the bastard." They take their chances
There are a thousand and one ways this can go wrong, and very few where it goes right, in my eyes. Also, are we just "agreeing" to go along with it and claiming or are we going to do a popcorn style claim?*colour-coded for easy reference
14% chance going by statistics. If you want to say this is statistically insignificant, go ahead, and I will put together the last 150 games for you (for the likely a similar result). If you want to discredit my plan by an outside chance of it failing, then you're seriously wallowing in a damaging cognitive bias, because EVERYTHING we do in this game will incur some risk, and I would suggest there is far more risk in playing this game straight and hoping our AWESOME town-scumhunting skills prevail in lynching scum D1 and D2.
So, you think the scum would gamble on a 14% chance of there being ZERO protection roles in the game? If there a town protection role out there, there is a very real chance of there being THREE protection roles claimed, which gives us two scum. Good gambit there.-
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Hoopla
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Gonnano, help me convince these clowns that this plan is a solid idea. There seriously aren't any losses outside of the chance Shotty is fakeclaiming as town. And this is a loss either way if we go by the plan or not.
The 'Hoopla is fishing for PR's!!!!' cries are a joke. Our doctor is already outed. By protection role massclaiming, we at worst expose our real protection role, which nigh on guarentees a scum lynch Day 1. Even though it is an outed protection role for this 'guarenteed' scum lynch, we're in the EXACT same situation as we are now if Shotty is town. If nobody counterclaims, we have a very strong chance of Shotty being town, which means Shotty will likely soak up a nightkill/roleblock, unless scum are going to gamble, or if the 14% chance of Shotty being scum eventuates.-
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Hoopla
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I'd prefer popcorn style. Want to follow along and tell us if you're a protective PR or not?AGar wrote:Is it V/LA with limited access or V/LA with no posting? Just curious, honestly.
Alright, Hoopla, I'll bite. I admit my mistrust with the claim is simply that I don't see 100% benefit to mass-claims almost ever. I tend to lean pessimistic in regards to them.
I still want to know if we're just claiming out of the blue or if we want to do a popcorn style claim or something.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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WE'RE 300 POSTS IN TO DAY 1. THERE IS ENOUGH INFORMATION TO FIND SOMEONE SCUMMY.Elleran wrote: I have town reads from AGar as of now. I am and will be suspicious of Hoopla due to her early claim/unclaim. However, I am not sure enough to place a vote yet. And accusing me because I haven't voted seriously isn't a good accusation. Just because I have no vote on anyone doesn't mean that I'm automatically scum.
You're getting lynched so hard as soon as we finish this massclaim off.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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You're joking, right? We have two days until deadline - massclaim means everyone. If you disagreed with the concept you should have spoke up before, because you're seriously fucking us over. I don't care one bit for your playstyle because the whole game of mafia revolves around lying, and trying to detect liars - it's like having a playstyle of not voting. Eliminating a necessary facet of your game doesn't make it a playstyle. Though, I don't understand your objection in the first place because this passage of play is beneficial for you to be truthful no matter what.Good and Honest wrote:Are you all waiting for me? Although here it's a question of simply saying whether I'm a "Doctor" (or something similar) or not, I'm not going to participate. Sorry. I hope the fact that a single player doesn't participate won't cause too many problems.
If you are scum, it's probably a stupid thing to fakeclaim a protection role right now, because that gets Shotty lynched, then you tomorrow, which isn't a good result for you. If you are town, being truthful about whether you are a protection role or not helps us too. I have no interest in reading the rest of your post and answering your questions. If you don't complete the massclaim, I will vote for you today and push for your lynch, so we find out your role and complete the massclaim that way. Drop the gimmick, it doesn't work.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Lynching him finishes the massclaim.gonnano wrote:It's just that it's so late in the Day that I don't feel we've had a chance to discuss G&H's actions very much.
If he flips non-protective role, Shotty is a town doctor, and scum have to either deal with him (roleblock or kill), or leave him alive (for whatever reason) and hope he doesn't make a save.
If G&H flips a protective role, Shotty is scum, and yay, we get a free scumlynch tomorrow.-
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Hoopla
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18 hours left. I don't know what else we are going to accomplish today if I left it, so I'm going to hammer. Even though the massclaim wasn't completed, I'm comfortable enough to claim shotty as the doctor for now, unless G&H dies and we get a protective role flip - though I don't think that would happen.
Serious question for G&H - say you're a cop (or any other power role), does this mean you won't ever claim results on someone, because it could potentially break your scum game, because this is an action you couldn't really fabricate as scum?
Vote: Elleran-
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Hoopla
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If G&H doesn't place a vote on someone in his first post, I'll probably push for his lynch. Seriously, how can you go an entire day without voting ANYONE? He gives inane commentry on dated events that aren't relevant - if anyone else gave such little content for D1, they'd be speedlynched D2, but we seem to be giving him a meta out, because he claims it to be a style. It isn't a style - he isn't contributing, and he is very hard to read without voting or giving direct, definitive statements.
He seriously needs to do something special in his next couple of posts.-
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Hoopla
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Vel, what is your opinion on bandwagon analysis and it's effectiveness? How do you view the make-up of the final Day 1 vote count and it's participants? Almaster was a competing wagon for quite a while during Day 1 - do you think that makes him more likely to be scum, as his wagon was in competition with Elleran, but lost?
Everyone else - this game is going far too slow for my liking. I'd really like everyone to pick up the pace and place a vote in their next post so I can analyse where everyone is currently standing (G&H especially). Deadlines are two weeks, so one post every two/three days isn't going to cut it.-
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Hoopla
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