Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[ConfidAnon]

Hi.

Sorry for not being here (just got prodded), I'll claim once gonnanno does.

[redtail896]

Whoa there. You don't get off that easily. What do you think about this whole gambit business?

[AlmasterGM]

That's a shame - because you can actually glean some solid information from it if you think about it logically. Unless redtail thought it was a gambit, which seems very unlikely from his responses of trying to determine my sanity and his adamance he doesn't have a gun - it is pretty obvious he is town. Scum in this scenario would be decidedly unsure, even if they were sensing a gambit, and I didn't actually have information on them - but the fact the information I claimed to have was accurate, it means scum can never know for sure, and would certainly not commit to one answer so decisively as redtail is. If he were scum, he virtually signs any hope of survival away UNLESS it was gambit - and even if redtail thinks I might of been lying about my results, he certainly wouldn't have known if I'd follow through on them.

I already analyzed this argument. Redtail had very few chances of survival even if your play WASN'T a gambit. You were claiming gunsmith, so him claiming cop looks bad. There's been no Vig shots the past two nights despite there being ample targets to Vig. At the point where your play pretty clearly could have been a gambit and there was hardly anything to gain from fakeclaiming, I think what he did (deny having a gun) would be actually be the optimal scum play.

This isn't to say that he IS scum, merely that I don't think he is at all town because of your gambit. And I'm not "dismissing" the gambit at all - I'm just saying that I don't think it shows exactly what you are saying it does.

[AlmasterGM]

Hi new page. ConfidAnon can die.

[gonnano]

Can I get a reason why we're apparently going with the massclaim over my plan? I'm perfectly willing to accept a reasonable explanation of why it won't work and/or isn't the best idea, but I don't want us to massclaim just because Hoopla says we should. Why is the order the way it is? I know that this needs to happen soon, but I need some answers first.

[ConfidAnon]

Whoa there. You don't get off that easily. What do you think about this whole gambit business?

It was clever. I really don't know what conclusions to draw from it . . . I'm kind of lost this game.

[Kid Know Nothing]

Can I get a reason why we're apparently going with the massclaim over my plan? I'm perfectly willing to accept a reasonable explanation of why it won't work and/or isn't the best idea, but I don't want us to massclaim just because Hoopla says we should. Why is the order the way it is? I know that this needs to happen soon, but I need some answers first.

Order should be random.

Does this forum still have a dice roll?

I'll post more later today, moving to college in a few hours, so it'll be a little hectic.

[Hoopla]

Hi new page. ConfidAnon can die.

drop a vote on him.

[Kid Know Nothing]

La, no internet yet

[AlmasterGM]

Vote: ConfidAnon

[Good and Honest]

During the trialogue between Hoopla, redtail896 and gonnano, gonnano proposed a plan which redtail896 supported - that Vel-Rahn Koon should be lynched today. I'm not happy with that. It's one thing to suspect someone but another to suggest it as a plan for the whole town to lynch someone just because you suspect them... I don't think that means gonnano and redtail896 are mafia partners (in fact, it's hard for me to imagine redtail896 being a partner with anyone but Hoopla) but I still wanted to mention it.

Vel-Rahn Koon, you sound like you've given up and that's a pity. You shouldn't think that you can't help in any way. You say that you're seeing my posts - but do you actually consider what I'm saying in them? For example, we seem to be interpreting something about Zachrulez's post #462 in completely different ways - I'm talking about the sentence "It's less interesting that pretty much every point that ConfidAnon made against me (minus the wagon hopping point) could easily be made against him and more interesting that KKN seemingly isnt interested in him". If I'm understanding you correctly, according to you, this sentence is trying to move the focus to ConfidAnon (and away from Kid Know Nothing?). In my opinion, this sentence is trying to move the focus away from ConfidAnon (and most probably to Kid Know Nothing). So, if you consider my interpretation, does that change your perception of ConfidAnon and Kid Know Nothing?

Also, you say that I'm not commiting towards one or two players being more likely mafiosi - well, doing that is not really usual for me since I prefer to explore different possibilities, not just the "more likely" ones. I understand you don't like my approach. I can't say I don't like your approach but some of the things you've written actually sadden me: "I think both CA and AGM are clear due to their interactions with Zach" - OK, you may think their interactions with Zachrulez make it less likely for them to be mafiosi but to say that they are "clear"... And especially this: "I think Hoopla's TWO gambits is too over the top for scum to do, and if Hoopla is scum I'm just going to have to live with it" - really? So if in a game an unlikely scenario turns out to be true (and for me games where the unlikely scenario is true are the most exciting), you'll just "live with it"? It sounds to me like you're hoping that in every game a likely scenario is going to be true - because you wouldn't explore the unlikely ones anyway... I have to say I don't think this is a good attitude.

So, Vel-Rahn Koon, you mention gonnano as your only question mark. But you state that you haven't looked at gonnano closely. Why don't you do it? You also say you disagree with Kid Know Nothing's post - but would you clarify what exactly you disagree with? You can certainly help in developing the discussion and gathering information if you're willing to.

AlmasterGM, you state that I may be a partner of Zachrulez's because Zachrulez attacked and accused me. There's nothing wrong with this argument. However, you yourself have also attacked and accused me... I find it funny that you're using an argument that can be used against yourself.

Also, once you realized that Hoopla had unclaimed "Gunsmith", you only talked about how the events that had happened didn't prove redtail896 was an innocent townsperson. It's interesting that you didn't say anything about gonnano and you didn't seem to consider the possibility of Hoopla being a partner with one of redtail896 and gonnano.

I find AlmasterGM's post#624 confusing - from it it sounds like at the time AlmasterGM hadn't realized that Hoopla had unclaimed - although both redtail896 and I had talked about the unclaim. It's even stranger that Hoopla didn't immediately point that out - this happened only after AlmasterGM and Hoopla made a couple more posts. As a whole, to me the whole dialogue between AlmasterGM and Hoopla during the last few pages felt somewhat peculiar. And it all ended with Hoopla telling AlmasterGM to vote ConfidAnon and AlmasterGM doing it!? It also shocked me how AlmasterGM suddenly decided that "ConfidAnon can die" - that reminded me a lot of AlmasterGM's unexplained vote for Elleran on Day 1...

I have to say ConfidAnon's behaviour is quite puzzling. I can't determine whether this is a case of a player feeling "lost" in this game or a player wanting to appear "lost" in this game...

redtail896, in post #557 you say "VRK wanted to shift Zach to CA". I don't know whether I'm understanding this right so would you, please, explain it to me?

gonnano, regarding your plan from post #633 - I'm not sure what you mean by "information roles". If you clarify this, I think I'll be more capable of understanding your plan and commenting on it.

Kid Know Nothing, I hope you'll have Internet access in the near future as I'll be glad to read more about your thoughts.

[Hoopla]

Guys, we have like 4 or 5 days until the deadline hits us. We need to power through the rest of this massclaim ASAP, there aren't any other choices now that we've already started it. Gonnano and CA need to get on with it.

[gonnano]

I know that this needs to happen soon, but I need some answers first.

[gonnano]

Here's a choice. VRK is the only one who has claimed so far, so we could wagon him and see if any investigative roles show up to clear him. If not, we lynch him.

[Hoopla]

Can I get a reason why we're apparently going with the massclaim over my plan? I'm perfectly willing to accept a reasonable explanation of why it won't work and/or isn't the best idea, but I don't want us to massclaim just because Hoopla says we should. Why is the order the way it is? I know that this needs to happen soon, but I need some answers first.

Vel-Rahn Koon has claimed already, redtail is town, Good And Honest is probably town (and won't claim anyway), Almaster is probably town, I'm town. It really only leaves you and CA for who the best candidates to go next are. I'd be okay jumping up the order, but at worst I'm going after you. Anyway, thats why the order is the way it is.

I've also explained my motivations for massclaim - I want to be able to make balance predictions based on what the claims are, and I also want to lock scum into fakeclaims early, as I think it's possible we can catch them, or narrow the pool down even further to the point where it will be hard to lose.

I have some good data on what sort of power roles will exist in this set-up with what sort of density - I want to challenge scum to make a good fakeclaim now. If I'm satified the PR claims are town and match up with what we can expect from this set-up, we lynch from the pool of vanillas. Another reason is to cash in the information of what PR's have generated over two nights, rather than risk losing that with whoever scum NK. Remember, we've lost our doctor, so it's exceedingly likely we can prevent mafia killing at night. I'll be claiming my role before the end of today, regardless of what you do. But refusing now won't help the town in any way. If you want to debate the order of claiming, go on, I'll hear you out.

[Hoopla]

Here's a choice. VRK is the only one who has claimed so far, so we could wagon him and see if any investigative roles show up to clear him. If not, we lynch him.

No, he's probably town. Jump on the CA wagon.

[AlmasterGM]

Guys seriously, you need to either argue with Hoopla about why we should do something else, or do what she says. You can't just sit around and be like, "HURRR DURRRRRRR LETS DO N0THING LOL."

[gonnano]

why is VRK probably town? I'm fine with saying that people Zach voted for/pressured are probably town, but why the person that he had a "town vibe" on?

where does KKN fit in all this?

why is cashing in the PR now and definitely losing that player tonight better than letting the PR decide if they have relevant information to offer or not? Scum only have a 1/6 chance of killing the power role tonight.

[Hoopla]

why is VRK probably town? I'm fine with saying that people Zach voted for/pressured are probably town, but why the person that he had a "town vibe" on?

where does KKN fit in all this?

why is cashing in the PR now and definitely losing that player tonight better than letting the PR decide if they have relevant information to offer or not? Scum only have a 1/6 chance of killing the power role tonight.

Why do you think there will just be one? Are you deliberately fishing for that information?

[gonnano]

AGM, have you ever actually gotten results by saying stuff like that? You didn't say who you were talking about, so no one knows what you even mean, and even if you had I very much doubt that you would have inspired them to change anything with that post.

You just wasted post number 666.

[AlmasterGM]

Oh good, multiple people online. We can talk.

Why do you think there will just be one? Are you deliberately fishing for that information?

How is this worse than a massclaim. Isn't massclaim just one giant massive fish?

AGM, have you ever actually gotten results by saying stuff like that? You didn't say who you were talking about, so no one knows what you even mean, and even if you had I very much doubt that you would have inspired them to change anything with that post.

I do get results, actually. Hoopla has been speaking very calmly most of this time and is not getting activity. Trying a different tact can't hurt. Besides, I shouldn't even have to tell people to play the game. They should be doing it on their own.

[gonnano]

Why do you think there will just be one? Are you deliberately fishing for that information?

I was looking at the worst-case scenario. I forgot to include the possibility that there is more than one PR, in which case there is no way that scum can eliminate all of our sources of inside information by tomorrow.

Besides, I shouldn't even have to tell people to play the game.

That's right, because it's obvious. So obvious that you pointing it out will never make a difference because everyone already knows it.

[AlmasterGM]

That's right, because it's obvious. So obvious that you pointing it out will never make a difference because everyone already knows it.

If it's so obvious then why aren't people doing it?

[gonnano]

because they choose to ignore it

[Hoopla]

JUST CLAIM ALREADY. I'LL GO AFTER YOU IF YOU WANT, GONNANO.