Mini #1007 (Game Over)


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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:03 am

Post by AGar »

Hoopla wrote:Can you explain what the scum motivation would be for me to fake-claim in this instance,
knowing
that you have witnessed me do this as a miller before? I'm well aware this will improve my chances of being lynched (even more so with your knowledge of my scum game), but the rewards of this claim certainly isn't worth that risk as scum. For me, the prevention of town PR's deathes takes precedence over my own survival, which was the catalyst for my decision to claim.
The scum motivation remains the same - attempt to avoid targeting by pro-town roles while trying to play the move off as pro-town. The question really lies in how much did you think about your potential gambit, and how much you thought about how each player would play into it.

First of all, if your memory serves you correctly, I pretty much flaked out of that game. I had gone inactive and the only reason I didn't get replaced out was because I was NKed before it could happen. Overall, I inadvertently flaked on about 8 games simultaneously, that was one. I didn't even know I had been NKed in that game (which occurred in February) until June. I didn't see that game through to the end. I went back and read it about a month ago when I was updating my wiki.

Second, there's the potential WIFOM element that can pollute my thoughts if you do it as scum - "surely he wouldn't try this twice as scum with me in both games" I would think - and that I might not bring this up because of that. If that's the only game with me you've played, then you don't know my meta well enough to determine what kind of player I am. I lurked woefully in that game.

Third, you may not have even connected me with this game and 909 until I brought it up. You have 10 other completed games in 2010 according to your wiki. Sure, if you're keen on your memory, you might remember every player who you played with in each specific game. But most people aren't.

Conversely to your question - had I not brought it up, would you have honestly remembered that I was in the game where you fake-claimed a miller as scum?

If you don't make the connection, the risk/reward is greater - you basically have pro-town PRs off of your back, and you don't worry about this pesky meta bringing you into potential lynch material when you make the claim. You simply set it up to play it off as a pro-town move with the best interests of the town in mind rather than your own best interests. You likely don't expect me to attack the ploy, so you think this can be well played, like the last time.

If you do, and you do realize that I'm generally the type of player who attacks WIFOM-type issues head on rather than skirting around them, you may find the risk/reward a bit less. But what have you got to lose? You may get lynched, but you can maybe find a way to steer clear of leaving any dead tells linking you to anyone. You have also effectively derailed the town's attention on D1.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:11 am

Post by Vel-Rahn Koon »

Hoopla, that's an all-WIFOM argument. It's true that there's no motivation as scum to make that claim, HOWEVER, you were not aware that AGar would remember or bring forward the meta argument. You don't get to turn the argument around post-fact to clear yourself.

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I hadn't thought about the prevention of Town PR deaths, and it's a good point (and no, I've never played with a PGO before).
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:18 am

Post by Hoopla »

AGar wrote: Third, you may not have even connected me with this game and 909 until I brought it up. You have 10 other completed games in 2010 according to your wiki. Sure, if you're keen on your memory, you might remember every player who you played with in each specific game. But most people aren't.
AGar wrote: Conversely to your question - had I not brought it up, would you have honestly remembered that I was in the game where you fake-claimed a miller as scum?
Keen observation, but I can assure you I remember that game vividly. Perhaps this is because I usually only play one or two games at a time - there is nothing that gets lost in the mess. I'm sure I could cite 70% of a playerlist in any game I've surivived longer than a day in, because I know I always invest a lot of time and effort into games. I'd be disappointed if I lost such memories.

So, of course I know and remember. I even know
you
remember about that game as you were talking about elsewhere on site (here).

Preview Edit:
Vel, see the above point.
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:32 am

Post by AGar »

Hoopla wrote:
AGar wrote: So, of course I know and remember. I even know
you
remember about that game as you were talking about elsewhere on site (here).
Ok, so I can name off the roles of the game. How are you to know that I know more about the game than that? How are you to know that I even read more than the roles of the game and the results post.

Every point you have made is something that we can't confirm, because it's all you saying one thing that is supposedly in your head. There is no proof that you remembered, you could easily be bluffing every post you make to fit in with "I remember you being in that game." The only point you bring up that's confirmable is, yes, I did talk to Amished about that game. But, again, nothing in that post shows that I read more than the OP, so how are you to know from that post alone that I know that you claimed miller falsely.
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:34 am

Post by redtail896 »

Hey everybody. Alright, I'm ready to get to some scumhunting. I guess I'll start by
Hoopla wrote:
Claim:
Paranoid Gun Owner

Discuss.
by...by...oh. Well then. I guess we can start with this.

So, while I can understand why you made this claim immediately, I can see 2 main problems. #1, contrary to what you said, I think this may ensure your survival for the time being. Or at least, I find it incredibly unlikely that you will be night killed. No town PR is going to take the risk of targeting you at night, and of course scum won't kill you. Short of being lynched (you seem more sure that this will happen than I am), you'll be around.

#2, I feel like a disproportionate amount of today's discussion will revolve around you now. I find myself agreeing with AGar that you might've better served town by claiming later in the day, after we already had some discussion under our belts. I'm worried that we'll all get distracted by your claim, when we need to scumhunt elsewhere. Thoughts?

For the record, I've never played with a PGO before (to be honest, I had to look it up to see what it was). I'm curious: is/was there a thread in Mafia discussion about PGOs and how much of a benefit/liability they are to town? If not, I think I'll make one after this game is over; I think it'd be an interesting discussion topic.
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:36 am

Post by AGar »

@redtail - Have you read the rest of the thread in regards to what I brought up about his past meta?
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:44 am

Post by Hoopla »

AGar wrote:But, again, nothing in that post shows that I read more than the OP, so how are you to know from that post alone that I know that you claimed miller falsely.
Eyes everywhere, my friend;
AGar wrote:
Amished wrote:Oh yeah. Stupid scum lynching Quag and ruining everything; he could've killed Hoopla miller's claim....
Lol I helped. He refused to read his role PM. It was a policy lynch. Cyberbob and I actually spearheaded that wagon and we were town lol.
Unless you're claiming to have posted this message without reading what Amished had to say. You know I fakeclaimed miller as scum that game, and I know you knew. I don't even know why you're trying to argue this.
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:52 am

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Redtail; I acknowledge the point of possibly claiming later in the day, after we've had the RVS and some discussion. A small part of claiming early was to fast-forward straight to discussion, as there are
definitely
differing motives between town and scum in dealing with an early PGO claim. And isn't this the point of discussion, unearthing the differing motives?

I'll be happy to share my deductions once we have had a few more players post, but I can assure you I'm already nursing an ample resevoir of notes.
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:57 am

Post by AGar »

Hoopla wrote:
AGar wrote:But, again, nothing in that post shows that I read more than the OP, so how are you to know from that post alone that I know that you claimed miller falsely.
Eyes everywhere, my friend;
AGar wrote:
Amished wrote:Oh yeah. Stupid scum lynching Quag and ruining everything; he could've killed Hoopla miller's claim....
Lol I helped. He refused to read his role PM. It was a policy lynch. Cyberbob and I actually spearheaded that wagon and we were town lol.
Unless you're claiming to have posted this message without reading what Amished had to say. You know I fakeclaimed miller as scum that game, and I know you knew. I don't even know why you're trying to argue this.
I don't write down my thoughts on every post, you know. So I can't tell you if I read Amished's post in full. It's quite possible that I didn't, I do that quite often. I don't know.

What I don't get is why you're going to such great lengths (basically stalking my posts outside of this thread) in order to try and prove that you knew I was going to attack this head-on.

I'm arguing it because you're basically trying to say you know how I think, and that makes your actions pro-town.
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:13 am

Post by Hoopla »

You (and Vel) both were the ones to bring up points that I might not have remember we were in the game together, or I may not have known I
knew
you would remember my miller claim. You were both using these points to discredit my claim, or suggest I didn't know if I would be pulled up on it.
AGar wrote: The scum motivation remains the same - attempt to avoid targeting by pro-town roles while trying to play the move off as pro-town. The question really lies in how much did you think about your potential gambit, and how much you thought about how each player would play into it.
Right here, you are the one to put importance on this avenue of discussion.

Again, the reason I claimed, was because the risks of killing town PR's were truly not worth the risk of staying quiet. I did this even knowing you would bring this up. And I think I have proved sufficiently that I knew you would bring this up. Are you in favour of policy lynching on Day 1?
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:29 am

Post by redtail896 »

AGar wrote:@redtail - Have you read the rest of the thread in regards to what I brought up about his past meta?
I have. I think that, if Hoopla is town, then she probably would've done this anyway, regardless of whether she thinks you would remember this miller incident. And if Hoopla is scum, then it's too easy to play it off as "she probably would've done this anyway, regardless of whether she thinks you would remember this miller incident." I'm aware of the possibility that this is a scum gambit, and the fact that she's pulled this off before is helpful, but I'd rather see her scumhunting and reasoning in this game than go off that one incident.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:30 am

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Definitely an interesting start to the game... I agree with redtail that we shouldn't lynch based on just this claim. Hoopla's play does make sense as a town move.

Here's something else to consider -- AGar and I just got out of a game where he was scum. He and his partner managed to win by convincing a townie that my claim was a gambit. He could be trying to pull the same trick again. Gambits do exist, of course, but the reason that they work is because a straight play is much more likely.
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:44 am

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First off, on an unrelated note.. @AGar: It's just a dark templar. I'm planning to change it to a high templar when I get the chance.

Okay, to the game.

The early PGO claim seems odd. I've personally played with PGO before in real life games, and in most of those games, the PGO, even after a no-cc, early claim, ends up getting shot or killing a doctor or cop accidentally. The reason why PRs target the potential PGO is because Hoopla could be a VT (or even cop) just claiming PGO for safety. In my past life games, I have learned that early claims of PGO is a pro-town move. However, seeing AGar's argument that Hoopla has fake claimed before, I can't trust her so easily. I'm not persuaded to vote yet, but
FoS Hoopla
.
redtail wrote:#2, I feel like a disproportionate amount of today's discussion will revolve around you now. I find myself agreeing with AGar that you might've better served town by claiming later in the day, after we already had some discussion under our belts. I'm worried that we'll all get distracted by your claim, when we need to scumhunt elsewhere. Thoughts?
This will probably be the case. Unless some other spectacular event happens today.
gonnano wrote:Here's something else to consider -- AGar and I just got out of a game where he was scum. He and his partner managed to win by convincing a townie that my claim was a gambit. He could be trying to pull the same trick again. Gambits do exist, of course, but the reason that they work is because a straight play is much more likely.
So both of the accusations are coming from known fake-claim/manipulators. >.<
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:40 am

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Hoopla wrote:Knowing me, I'd be likelier to attract doctors and investigation roles if I didn't claim, though.
This is the part I don't get. If you frequently bite cops and doctors, that means you consider yourself a highly valued player. As a high value target, you are also likely to bite the NK ... which, as a PGO, is a good thing. If you had just tried to play extremely pro-town, you probably would have avoided Cop, so the only possible loss would have been doctor. In my mind, it would have been worth the risk to not claim.

However, I can see the justification for claiming, so I don't think the claim in and of itself is scummy. It is the meta argument that makes it relevant - poor logic plus scum motivation for using that logic plus evidence that you used the same tactic before ....

Vote: Hoopla
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:51 am

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

Hi every one, yay for RVS!
VOTE: Hoopla
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:25 pm

Post by AGar »

gonnano wrote:Here's something else to consider -- AGar and I just got out of a game where he was scum. He and his partner managed to win by convincing a townie that my claim was a gambit. He could be trying to pull the same trick again. Gambits do exist, of course, but the reason that they work is because a straight play is much more likely.
Mm. Circumstances were different. It was LYLO. I was pretty much a goner if I didn't do anything. I didn't think IP would survive LYLO with any of you, quoi and artem.

This situation that I'm going after Hoopla for - same circumstances. Day 1, beginning of play. No pressure. Openly claims a role that will basically get pro-town PRs off of his back.

I also find it oddly strange that you decided to bring this up. It's like a weak, variant chainsaw defense for Hoopla.

Thanks for outting his buddy, bro.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:26 pm

Post by redtail896 »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:Hi every one, yay for RVS!
VOTE: Hoopla
This is not RVS. You just put a 4th vote on Hoopla without a single mention of the last 2 pages? What do you think about all this PGO stuff?

FOS: drmyshottyizsik
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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:33 pm

Post by ConfidAnon »

Why just an FoS?

Vote: drmyshottyizsik


(Undecided on Hoopla right now . . . . understand the arguments for both sides, but I don't see anything glaring to make me choose a side right now. After all, it's only page 2.)
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:38 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

Oh shit i didn't know he had those votes on him when i did that. Sorry my computers running slow i submitted that when there was only like 10 posts. I think that what he did was dumb, but not necessarily a for sure scum read. I'll keep my vote after reading what y'all have been talking about, but I'm really on the fence about it so don't get angry if I unvote.
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:41 pm

Post by AGar »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:Oh shit i didn't know he had those votes on him when i did that. Sorry my computers running slow i submitted that when there was only like 10 posts. I think that what he did was dumb, but not necessarily a for sure scum read. I'll keep my vote after reading what y'all have been talking about, but I'm really on the fence about it so don't get angry if I unvote.
Your computer is so slow, it takes 12 hours to post?

-_-
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:43 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

ya it was storming here and i was downloading combat arms
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:01 pm

Post by redtail896 »

AGar wrote:
drmyshottyizsik wrote:Oh shit i didn't know he had those votes on him when i did that. Sorry my computers running slow i submitted that when there was only like 10 posts. I think that what he did was dumb, but not necessarily a for sure scum read. I'll keep my vote after reading what y'all have been talking about, but I'm really on the fence about it so don't get angry if I unvote.
Your computer is so slow, it takes 12 hours to post?

-_-
Not to mention that the forum makes you read what's been posted since you've gone into reply mode (unless there's a way to turn that off that I haven't found).
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:10 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

it doesn't make you it just tells you that something else has been posted you don't have to read
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Post Post #48 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:16 pm

Post by AGar »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:it doesn't make you it just tells you that something else has been posted you don't have to read
So you just ignored the rest of it?
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Post Post #49 (ISO) » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:58 pm

Post by Zachrulez »

drmyshottyizsik wrote:Hi every one, yay for RVS!
VOTE: Hoopla
Hi.

Vote:drmyshottyizsik


I'm not sure I understand the wagon on Hoopla. I can see reason to question whether or not the claim is optimal, but I'm having a hard time seeing how a claim like this would benefit scum. Has scum even historically fake-claimed PGO ever?

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