Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

Scum only have one kill per night. If we confirm 2/3 players at this stage of the game, the benefit we get from narrowing down the pool now increases our chances of winning dramatically. They cannot kill every confirmed or prob-townie in one night. But the benefit of getting them all out in the open now, means we can lynch with more accuracy today. This is the right time.

[gonnano]

If you have a guilty on me, why are you worried about lynching with accuracy today?

[Hoopla]

You're very perceptive, gonnano. I think this gambit has just about run it's course, though I'm disappointed nobody else was here to chime in on it.

I am not a gunsmith, that claim was a hoax. I'd like to thank redtail for making it obvious he is a townie. I'm 95% sure he is town, whilst I'm rather confident you're town as well gonnano (but for slightly different reasons). For those doubting my motives, I breadcrumbed my plan to fakeclaim Gunsmith earlier in the day;

Gun

ning for ConfidAnon instead of Zach yesterday, might end up being a costly decision for redtail.

S

omething tells me this is where I should be looking today, though it certainly wasn't subtle in any way.

M

y immediate plan today upon finding myself alive is to revert back to my wagon analysis, and I have some great new leads to follow with this handy boost in information.

It

really is amazing how much easier the game becomes once you've got a confirmed scum to work with.

H

owever, I highly suggest everyone else to reread the thread in light of this flip and try to work out where Zach's attacks seem genuine and where they seem fabricated, and conversely how other players treat him.

Claim

ing your previous suspects are scum

without

looking at what Zach did, and their attitude toward Zach will not fly with me.

I

t is absolutely necessary to filter this new information into your play.

S

o, before I unveil some more analysis, I want others to look at their suspects and try to figure out their ties with Zach.

A

fter doing this, if you cannot reasonably find any way to tie that player with Zach as scum, you must drop it and move on and find someone else that fits.

J

ust please do that for me.

O

therwise, I'm working hard on finishing my new analysis of Day 1 and 2, and while I'm reluctant to give too much away just now, I think some of you might be able to catch where I'm going with it.

K

id Know Nothing isn't as hot on my radar as yesterday, I'm happy to say.

E

verything will be revealed shortly though.

I think this was definitely worth it, as I've proved beyond doubt that redtail is town, as there is no way he would have reacted in that way as scum. He surely would have tried to fakeclaim a role with a gun, rather than try to figure out if I was insane and then explicitely claim he had no gun. Scum dislike locking down their options like that, and he would have assumed he was signing his death warrant by claiming my information was wrong. But because he had confirmed knowledge of having no gun, it must mean he is town.

I'll get to gonnano in a minute.

[Hoopla]

Ideally, I was hoping to catch a scum between you, but proving you're both likely town is a decent enough result too, in the sense that it narrows down today's options.

[Hoopla]

I still am endorsing a massclaim today too, in the hope we can narrow it down further.

[gonnano]

Hah! As soon as you claimed gunsmith I went back, found that post, and saw Gun-S-M-I-H. Which confused the heck out of me.

I still am not in favor of a massclaim.

[Hoopla]

You're lucky you aren't being confirmed town based on believing my claim or not, and not finding my breadcrumb. You're town because of something else you said, that you almost certainly wouldn't if you were mafia.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

...by the way.

[redtail896]

I have no problem with the massclaim. Honestly, I'm just sitting here waiting for others to get here.

[gonnano]

If we're assuming that Hoopla, myself, redtail, G&H, and AGM are all town, on some pretty good reasoning... how much more narrow does it have to get? We've got a 2/3 chance of lynching scum even if we choose randomly, and a VRK lynch would have a higher chance than that IMO.

[redtail896]

I challenge your assumptions. You haven't explained why you or AGM (or for that matter, me or Hoopla) should be considered town.

I'm happy with lynching you, then lynching Hoopla if you flip town.

I also vote that all 3 of us stop this until the others get here and have a say.

[gonnano]

Ok, I agree

[AlmasterGM]

Holy fucking gambit batman.

I have to go show some freshmen what a library is.

Then I'll be back to process all this ridiculousness and post.

[Hoopla]

I challenge your assumptions. You haven't explained why you or AGM (or for that matter, me or Hoopla) should be considered town.

I'm happy with lynching you, then lynching Hoopla if you flip town.

Gonnano's town, though.

[redtail896]

Wait, what?

[Hoopla]

Wait, what?

Read the thread.

[redtail896]

I challenge your assumptions. You haven't explained why you or AGM (or for that matter, me or Hoopla) should be considered town.

I'm happy with lynching you, then lynching Hoopla if you flip town.

Gonnano's town, though.

Why is gonnano town?

[Hoopla]

Why is gonnano town?

For similar reasons to why you're town. Though, I admit, there is another hidden reason why he is town. I can't explain it yet, without giving something away. Get a massclaim happening, and it'll all be out there. Sorry. I'm sure you'll agree his reaction aside from this was very pro-town.

[redtail896]

Unvote

For the record, when I made my last 2 posts, I hadn't realized that you had unclaimed gunsmith. Sorry about being a bit slow here.

Hoopla, if you are scum, then this is the most epic, absurd, ridiculous scum play ever

I am curious why you feel that a massclaim is necessary though. If we confirm the three of us as town, surely we can figure out the rest without massing at this moment.

[Hoopla]

Unvote

For the record, when I made my last 2 posts, I hadn't realized that you had unclaimed gunsmith. Sorry about being a bit slow here.

Yeah, I thought that's what happened.

We have a solid core of townies and likely townies, but I want massclaim so I can lock scum into a claim now. What massclaim does is create two pools - a VT pool and a PR pool. The PR pool is smaller and easier confirm or catch someone lying there. It's possible we can increase the core of townies even further, and possibly get some information on who in the VT pool is likelier to be scum. At this stage, we have such good information for process of elimination cases, that we don't need to rely on PR's any more, so we might as well claim them to lock the game down as much as we can now.

[Hoopla]

By not massclaiming now, all we do is run the risk of losing built-up information if scum hit a PR tonight. We need to cash it in now.

[Kid Know Nothing]

I will post more once I understand what the heck just happened.

[gonnano]

If you're worried about information roles, I might concede to an information-role massclaim, although I'm not even sure about that. I don't think that the possibility of scum hitting a PR is such a big risk that we can't leave it for one more night, and the extra investigation could be extremely valuable.

My favorite idea that I've had so far is to wagon VRK, get a claim, then ask for any counterclaims or any investigative roles with an innocent result to speak up before the hammer.

VOTE: VRK

[Good and Honest]

Wow... Not that I wasn't left with this impression even from before but now it's confirmed - anything can be expected from Hoopla!

I haven't seen a Mini Normal game with four mafiosi so this solution is impossible but, looking at this trialogue between Hoopla, redtail896 and gonnano, if they were all partners, what a performance that would be!

I'll say that until the events from Day 3 I thought that, based on Hoopla's interactions with redtail896 and gonnano, it was unlikely that Hoopla was a partner with either of them. Here's why: in redtail896's case, Hoopla told redtail896 in post #165 "You're town, so it doesn't matter" - I couldn't imagine someone saying this to their mafia partner. In gonnano's case, Hoopla said this in post #232: "Gonnano, help me convince these clowns that this plan is a solid idea" - once again, it would shock me if someone adopts such an attitude towards their partner; another example of this attitude is Hoopla's post #403 from Day 2 where Hoopla asks where gonnano is and the last sentence is quite curious: "We need the extra voice of reason..."

Well, on Day 3 Hoopla has accused consecutively redtail896 and gonnano and at first I thought that this pointed even more to the unlikelihood of Hoopla being a partner with either of them. But let's assume that Hoopla actually is a partner with one of them. During the first two Days Hoopla has repeatedly shown considering redtail896 and gonnano as likely innocent townspeople. So Hoopla might have decided that now the time has finally come to attack the partner. OK, the trialogue happened and what is the result? Hoopla once again states considering redtail896 and gonnano as likely innocent townspeople - but now Hoopla can point to the trialogue and say: "See, I did attack them"...

Of course, this solution is just a possibility. But I can't help feeling that it looks convenient how everything basically ended the way it was before the Day started. It doesn't seem like a bad idea to group two players together as likely innocent townspeople if one of them is indeed an innocent townsperson and the other is your mafia partner... This part of Hoopla's post #496 from Day 2 could also be an example of such grouping: "Redtail, would you vote Zach or Kid Know Nothing? Your vote is being wasted on ConfidAnon. Gonanno is also wasting his vote at the moment. Put it on Zach or Kid Know Nothing please".

So let me explore Hoopla potentially being a mafia partner with redtail896 or gonnano:

Hoopla-redtail896 - at first Hoopla expressed some suspicion of redtail896; the reason was that redtail896 had taken a "middling" view towards Hoopla's "Paranoid Gun Owner" claim. After that it can be said that redtail896 defended Hoopla to some extent during the discussion with AlmasterGM... but then in post #160 redtail896 said: "Not so fast Hoopla; you get questions too". One of the questions was whether Hoopla found redtail896 suspicious - which resulted in the aforementioned sentence "You're town, so it doesn't matter". At the time I really liked redtail896's post #160 since it showed that, in spite of defending Hoopla from AlmasterGM, redtail896 was paying attention to Hoopla... But I guess this could also be interpreted as distancing from a partner. What about their interactions on Day 3? Well, I agree with Hoopla that redtail896's reaction to Hoopla's "revelation" that redtail896 has a gun doesn't make sense if redtail896 is a mafioso... unless they are partners! I find it interesting that at no point did redtail896 mention even considering that Hoopla's "Gunsmith" claim might not be true. Then Hoopla suddenly announced that it was gonnano who actually had a gun... and redtail896 immediately voted for gonnano, which I must say I didn't like. I would have expected redtail896 to be more careful and think more about the situation before making such an action... Finally, I don't know what this means but I feel I have to note it: in post #547 (redtail896's first for Day 3), redtail896 asks Hoopla: "What in your analysis is such a smoking gun?"...

Hoopla-gonnano - unlike the situation with redtail896, Hoopla never expressed suspicion of gonnano; in fact, during the beginning of the game Hoopla only mentioned gonnano once, stating being "unsure" of gonnano's role. It can be said that gonnano defended Hoopla several times from AGar. gonnano quickly supported Hoopla's suggestion for a "protection role mass claim" on Day 1... In fact, I was left with the impression that gonnano seemed to agree quite a lot with Hoopla - maybe this is an argument against them being partners. What about their interactions on Day 3? Well, gonnano suddenly appeared during Hoopla's interrogation of redtail896 and then at one stage Hoopla asked: "Where's gonnano? I don't like how he's slinked off" - as if Hoopla were relying on gonnano's presence (in order to accomplish some kind of a plan?). Also, taking into consideration Hoopla's previous attitude towards gonnano, that surprisingly sounded like a negative comment (to prepare for the "attack" on gonnano that followed?). Unlike redtail896, gonnano obviously considered that Hoopla's "Gunsmith" claim might not be true and even stated at one point believing that Hoopla is a mafioso. Another thing - gonnano pointed out a few times inconsistencies in what Hoopla was saying, which I thought was good... But it could also be interpreted as making sure to remove links to a mafia partner. What I found really peculiar was gonnano's reaction to Hoopla's unclaim - until then gonnano seemed so suspicious of Hoopla but accepted the unclaim so easily, without asking any questions?! And then gonnano said: "If we're assuming that Hoopla, myself, redtail, G&H, and AGM are all town, on some pretty good reasoning" - what was the pretty good reasoning for Hoopla - the unclaim? Finally, while Hoopla was insisting on gonnano's having a gun, Hoopla stated that one of them MUST be lynched today. But then the unclaim came so neither of them has to be lynched anymore - which would be nice for them if they were partners, wouldn't it?

So I'll be considering the possibility of Hoopla being partner with redtail896 or gonnano. However, there is a problem. If we assume that Hoopla and one of redtail896 and gonnano are mafia partners, that would mean that AlmasterGM is not a mafioso. But then we come again to the fact that Hoopla repeatedly stated that EXACTLY ONE of Zachrulez and AlmasterGM is a mafioso. If Hoopla is a mafioso, I can't understand the purpose of making that statement if it were true...

The situation is quite complicated. I hope the other players will share their thoughts (ConfidAnon still hasn't said anything on Day 3)...

About the mass claim - as you might have guessed, I won't participate. To tell you the truth, I'm not fond of mass claims in general - while they might seem exciting, I don't like their effect on a game. I prefer it when people are basing their thoughts on what's happening during the game - interactions, discussions - and not on revelation of roles. But, of course, my personal preferences won't change anyone's mind.

[AlmasterGM]

Ok.

First of all, sorry Hoopla, but your gambit was pretty obv. If I were mafia running against it, I would've played into it instead of just fakeclaiming (or at least strongly considered doing so). Chances of gunsmith + cop is low, and claiming Vig when there haven't been any shots is also weird. Thus, I don't buy your argument that redtail is cleared. If he's scum, simply protesting that he didn't have a gun and praying for a diversion seems like the optimal play.

Second, I don't get why you investigated gonnano. After D1, gonnano seemed very town. You say you wanted to clear up the Elleran wagon, but I simply do not understand why you would choose to gunsmith on one of the most townie people on board. I also question the logic of choosing the Elleran wagon in general; I feel like that gunsmith shot could have been much better utilized on somebody like VRK, who is lying far off the radar.

Finally, I don't like the way you are engineering the rest of this to play out. You are currently claiming gunsmith. If you're telling the truth, then scum have to deal with you. They aren't going to go hunting for other PRs. There is no reason we wouldn't off-put the massclaim until tomorrow so we have the chance to get more information.

But all that said, I don't see why you would fakeclaim gunsmith, since if you lie, you would just lynched tomorrow. Hrm. Gonnano does look like scum, then, I suppose.

For my scum picks, I still think Good and Honest is a good lynch. Zach's attacks on him

reek

of last-ditch bussing. Zach might have been playing poorly, but he's not an idiot. I think he knew he was going to be in trouble D2. Good and Honest himself is impossible to evaluate because he never does anything, so I think we have to consider that interaction really strongly. We also have this interaction:

I would strongly advise against lynching G&H today, though. I would much rather proceed with the Elleran lynch and discuss G&H more during Day 2.

This comes after gonnano has a series of interactions with G&H that garner both content and indicate that gonnano thinks G&H looks a bit scummy. He then drops G&H almost entirely on D2, at least in terms of scumhunting him. Given Hoopla's investigative result on gonnano, this mysterious "interact-but-then-drop-it-for-no-reason" tact by gonnano looks pretty bad for the two of them.