War in Heaven II - Spirit of Vengeance (Over!)


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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 4:59 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:/confirm

Fun fact of the day: the only two non-Indo-European languages that English has borrowed irregular pluralizations from are Hebrew (Seraphim, Cherubim) and Japanese (Samurai, Ninja, Pokemon).
I just spent twenty minutes rooting around all of the language reference books scattered around my room to confirm or deny this. Curse you.

/confirm
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Post Post #16 (isolation #1) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 5:24 pm

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Xylthixlm wrote:Nuwen: Did you? Because I learned that from the kindly old professor who taught my Indo-European Languages course and never bothered to verify it. :)
I could only find a thesis on null pluralization of Maori loanwords in different dialects of English, focusing primarily on kiwi versus kiwis.

I need to clean that desk off...
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Post Post #29 (isolation #2) » Thu Mar 19, 2009 1:39 am

Post by Nuwen »

Shinnen_no_Me wrote:recognize zwet.
You poor dear.

Zwet is one of the more important metas to know in this game anyway; his play is definitely the most erratic.
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Post Post #45 (isolation #3) » Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:51 pm

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The Fonz wrote: He's the one significant name here i know nothing about.

But seriously... MORE erratic than ABR and DGB?
I wouldn't even know where to begin.
Xylthixlm wrote:I think the best thing to do with zwet is kill him preemptively, before he has a chance to make up a ridiculous claim.
But he really
could
be a daycop bulletproof mason with a single 50%/50% shot this time!
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Post Post #71 (isolation #4) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:21 am

Post by Nuwen »

Like a wagon, each method of hurting has both pro-town and pro-scum advantages - we need to focus finding an optimal equilibrium. Spreading around damage equally might result in a mass kill approximately three or four weeks into the game. However, focus firing has every disadvantage (and potential advantage) of a normal mislynch.

I don't think that scum is any more likely to draw that parallel than town, so Shinnen's suspicions seem to be based on a null tell.

If we do choose to focus fire, I think we should avoid mass-firing in a short time and always have a heal cooldown ready for a rage damage dump.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #5) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 8:38 am

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Sure, why not.

Heal: Albert B. Rampage


Don't you warmer and safer already?

I think maintaining a high average health is an excellent idea. The cumulative damage to the town will be identical, but concentrating it on a single player allows us to read hurt actions like votes.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #6) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 10:57 am

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roflcopter wrote:the above applies to people voting kinetic. people voting xyl should get over it because he's clearly town. abr is town too.
roflcopter wrote:hoopla is also scum, i would approve of people hurting her as well
DrippingGoofball wrote:Regardless of what you think of the startegy he proposes, potajo is so town, it hurts.
Does anyone else hate obvtown statements on page 5 as much as I do?
roflcopter wrote:speaking of organize, i'm organizing a brute squad, and inducting the following obviously town people into it immediately: abr, xyl, dgb, and tajo (if he'll accept). we should all agree on one person and put them down. over and over, until we've killed all the scum.
Read: I'm going to collect all of my page 5 obvtown friends and killkillkill, regardless of what the rest of the town believes is optimal play. Because I'm awesome. And scum.

We can easily work out a system of overlapping hurting/healing so no one's cooldown is wasted, Orph tracking won't be painfully obvious, and a safety net of mass healage is still available.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #7) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 11:23 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote: Acyually, whats wrong with making definitve statements? We know that town has no additional info. There are some actions that tell you that someone is more prob town or more prob scum. Or gut. I usually play like that.
There's a sizable difference between following a gut conviction to build a real case and what Copter is doing. Gut is a subconscious reaction to subtle tells - eventually, these tells make themselves evident and can be included in a cogent case. Copter is prancing around with lynch plans and fishing for support from his obvtown crew.
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Post Post #149 (isolation #8) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 4:48 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Kinetic wrote: The first thing you do to counter such a breaking is to intentionally leave imperfections, because such unanticipated imperfections are often what make perfect balance.
We're not in a Jdodge game. Determining whether a flaw in the setup is useless, because it neither changes the likelihood of break strategy existing nor does it make that strategy easier to discern.
Kinetic wrote: This is more of a limitation on a small group from forcing a lynch/kill on someone with little to no input from anyone else. I feel that the smaller the group pushing the kills the more that the scum can influence said group. I want at least SOME sort of consensus before we kill someone off.
The easiest way to do this is to cannibalize any small group of players bouncing from kill to kill. There's no need to neuter the entire town's capacity to quickhurt.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #9) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 10:23 pm

Post by Nuwen »

The Fonz wrote:I suggest to avoid the general lowering of health, we use a system where someone needs to gain the pledged support of at least one other player (committing to hurting them if you do) before doing any hurting. Something like this:

Call intent to hurt *Name*


Then someone else needs to post

I'm with you, *Name!*
I don't think this is any more ideal - I see no reason why a large scum team wouldn't pair off and cycle through proposals/agreements until they've placed a player in kill range. This is a vapid effort to organize hurt actions; it doesn't actually benefit the town. In fact, it gives scum
more
room to throw out hurt actions because they'll be inherently buddied with another player. "Well, confirmed town x agreed with my hurt..."

The Fonz wrote: RIGHT. BIG CAPS LOCK BIT BECAUSE THIS IS IMPORTANT. THE LAST FEW PAGES JUST REMIND ME OF MAD I WHEN THE TOWN ALL GOT MAD AND TURNED ON EACH OTHER BECAUSE THEY DISAGREED OVER GAME THEORY, WHILST THE SCUM LURKED THROUGH.
But I do agree with this. More consensus damage prz, less fabricating tells from theory disagreement.

Vote: Copter
(this is the part where he called me scum)
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Post Post #197 (isolation #10) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 2:58 am

Post by Nuwen »

What're everyone's thoughts on Seraphim blades? It makes most sense to use the blade every cooldown since it allows for 1 1/3 average damage per day versus 1 damage without using the blade. In the last game, it was suggested that
all
players mention a blade in order to mask the Seraphim's identity. Are we going to do something similar?

Note: if we disguise extra town damage, we also risk masking the source of rage damage.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #11) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 4:35 am

Post by Nuwen »

zwetschenwasser wrote:I concur. Xyl is also quick to come to conclusions without any evidence.
DrippingGoofball wrote:rofl and Xyl are still town.
So you think quick conclusions are scummy, eh?
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Post Post #212 (isolation #12) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 4:57 am

Post by Nuwen »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
zwetschenwasser wrote:I concur. Xyl is also quick to come to conclusions without any evidence.
DrippingGoofball wrote:rofl and Xyl are still town.
So you think quick conclusions are scummy, eh?
Clearly you're not understanding what I'm saying AT ALL, but none of my assessments are based on the speed with which conclusions are reached.
That question was directed at Zwet; I should have placed my response under his quote, sorry. I didn't say that "quick" was a basis quality, just that you've been throwing out aggressive, fast, absolute reads for a few pages..
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Post Post #251 (isolation #13) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:37 am

Post by Nuwen »

I don't approve of an Xyl kill, just because I'm really interested in whatever he and DGB are up too. More personal intrigue than any type of pro-town read, but I doubt suspending his death will be detrimental.

I can get behind a vIQles hurtfest, but Coptor and DGBs omgtown and omgscum proclaims still irk the shit out of me.

Also, everyone who has said something to the effect of "I don't like unconfirmed suspicions, they're scummy" has unequally applied this standard:
vIQleS wrote:
roflcopter wrote:hoopla is also scum...
roflcopter wrote:people voting xyl should get over it because he's clearly town. abr is town too.
I really don't like people who make definitive statements like these - especially if there's no way that they could have any info.

If you have suspicions, then present your argument. If you don't think people are convinced, then present it again - expand and clarify. Just repeating declaritive statements does not further the game...
-> vIQleS jumped on Coptor's indictment, but found DGB's obvtown statements less harmful. Why is one unsubstantiated alignment suspicion more note-worthy than another?
zwetschenwasser wrote:I concur. Xyl is also quick to come to conclusions without any evidence.
Zwet behaves similarly here.

Vote/pledge/I choose you, pikachu: vIQleS
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Post Post #268 (isolation #14) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:14 am

Post by Nuwen »

WaltWishbone hasn't posted around the site since he said something yesterday, approximately 16 hours ago. His lurking is inactive and indicative of absence, not willful withholding of content.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #15) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:17 am

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:I'm entertaining the thought of a scumteam comprised of the following players:

Seraphim
Drench
DGB
Shinnen_no_Me

Unvote ViQles
It really looks like you're either fishing for support, or trying to see who's malleable enough to play Follow-the-ABR.

What happened between twenty minutes ago and now to remove Xyl and ViQles from your list?
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Post Post #279 (isolation #16) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:21 am

Post by Nuwen »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Nuwen wrote:...approximately 16 hours ago. His lurking is inactive and indicative of absence, not willful withholding of content.
I don't even care that he may be lurking, the content of his single post is pretty damning. He's positioned himself to play the role of a poor innocent little rabbit.
So what do you make of Cybele's brief posting history, of which the most substantial non-theory post is:
Cybele wrote:Ok, I wasn't really seeing it before, but ABR's summarized case against Kinetic is convincing.
Vote: Kinetic


Also: I really do agree with the idea of fake-voting instead of hurting. New mechanics means we need to adapt.
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Post Post #338 (isolation #17) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:13 pm

Post by Nuwen »

WaltWishbone wrote: Although I am not sure if you and DGB are scum or just anti town. ;)
Then it's your responsibility to find out. If you have a suspicion, don't wait around for confirmation to fall into your lap. Passive, response-only town play is starchy and useless.

Post 336 doesn't contain a drop of unique analysis, and you've failed to act on any of your alleged suspicions. Pointing out anti-town behavior while doing nothing to resolve its intent is a vapid, appearance-oriented gesture. I count the phrase "I agree" four times. Do have any thoughts on this game that aren't pre-digested?
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Post Post #340 (isolation #18) » Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:34 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen wrote: Passive, response-only town play is starchy and useless.
This applies to you too, Zwet. This game is fast; thank you Cap'n Obvious. Do have anything else to say about it?

Yes, Xyl is pushing for lynches left and right. Are you going to do something about it?
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Post Post #353 (isolation #19) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 2:12 am

Post by Nuwen »

zwetschenwasser wrote:Response from a normal person, please?
I hadn't laid out those calculations either. Being aware of our mislynch buffer is good. Sometimes DGB is lucid.
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Post Post #379 (isolation #20) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:06 am

Post by Nuwen »

Shinnen_no_Me wrote:Oh, we can all play the same game of grouping people under groups without good bases (in your case, with no bases at all):

Scumgroup: rofl, tajo, xyl, abr.

I find it funny that you (rofl) say that Seraphim doesn't give reasons for saying which players he want dead/find scummy, yet you do the same thing. Hypocrite. I don't like people who point out things in other players, while they are doing the same under lame excuses.
Thus, your solution is to play the same game? This page's irony quota is well met.

I can support a WaltWishbone hurt now; his most recent attempt at 'scumhunting' focuses only on Xyl, supplemented with a chain of "I agrees." He's just responding to received attention and plucking out convenient stances to support.

Hurt: WaltWishbone - by flavor be purged!
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Post Post #392 (isolation #21) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:52 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:good thing i can basically kill people all by myself, because it seems like nobody else in this game gets it
No, you can't. At most you can put out 133% normal town damage, unless you're admitting to stashing rage or indicating that there's another hidden damage mechanic in this game. If you try to solo kill, I guarantee someone in this game will counter it with healage, wasting both your cooldown and a cooldown that can be better used for kills with cases behind them. Any misguided vigilante-type play hurts the town twofold.
zwetschenwasser wrote:
Hurt: Xyl
He's relegated to posting one-liners in an attempt to look townier.
I knew it'd just be a matter of time before I felt like bricking Zwet through the Internet.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #22) » Sun Mar 22, 2009 12:39 pm

Post by Nuwen »

When did post length become indicative of town alignment?

Small post density and sparse analysis are really anti-town in this game, but that doesn't make the opposite pro-town. The likelihood of a long post being written by town or scum is no higher than random. Read what Walt actually posted - it's vacuous position-mongering.
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Post Post #625 (isolation #23) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:07 pm

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Juls wrote:ABR...you seem more townie than anyone to me so since the game is moving at such a fast pace and I work/go to school, for the time being, I am your puppet. I can't filter all this crap right now. Tell me who to hurt and I will hurt them.
While doing a catchup skim, this is the post I want to pay most attention to. Following another player is a convenient way to jump on wagon without shouldering any responsibility for one's vote. Like random dice rolls in the RVS, it isolates the player from his or her actions.

Sorry for the no show today; I pulled an extra shift. I read Shinnen in isolation, and am willing to throw a hurt in her direction if Walt remains as a possibility for our next target. Her personal suspicions against Rolf shouldn't have taken precedence over the town's semi-consensus to limit hurt targets. I haven't read Walt's three or four most recent posts yet, but I'll update if their content changes my mind.

Hurt: Shinnen_no_Me
.
Eloquent flavor text mentioning a wrathful blade
.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #24) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:41 am

Post by Nuwen »

Walt's first commitment! Joyous days. It only took 26 pages too.
WaltWishbone wrote: I went back and reread the first ten pages, as well as Hoopla, Shinnen, and Zwert in isolation. I think Shinnen has questionable responses to several points which were raised however I would hesitate at this point at joining this wagon, especially given her roleclaim. If she flips town, it would be unfortunate to lose one of our Seraphim so early in the game.
133% damage versus a 50/50 town confirmation. Do you not believe that at least one Seraph is scum? Assuming ~5 scum for 20 town players, lynching at random has a 25% chance of hitting scum. Lynching a Seraph ups that to ~33%, assuming Rolf, Shinnen, and I are the only ones in the game. I'm claiming now because it'll be painfully obvious if Rofl and I are speedlynched if Shinnen flips scum. If she flips town, you guys have another genuine 50/50 split to lynch by.
Xylthixlm wrote: The fact that the damage is concentrating on a little over 1/4 of the players makes me :D:D:D
+1. Keep damage this concentrated for the next lynch or eight. With the fear of anarchistic voting assuaged, Tajo should be able to function again.
zwetschenwasser wrote:I'm an Ophanim. Now what do you want?
roflcopter wrote:... *headdesk*
This claim isn't as stupid as it looks at first glace (did I really just type that?). Zwet always gives opportunistic scum a reason to get him strung up, even if he is town. Through hurting/vote analysis, rather than case analysis, we can align his wagon with future mislynches to see who was pushing spurious crap onto a claimed power role.
Seraphim wrote: Let's kill some people and have a healing cooldown phase where we heal some of the players who probably aren't scum. WaltWishbone, after his latest post, has piqued my scum meter. I am seriously reconsidering switching my hurt to him.
No. Let's heal unwagoned players at is becomes necessary. We're slowing down the game otherwise. Right now, I'm assuming about 4-6 scum are gaining one rage point per week:
Flay wrote:In addition to your usual powers, the force of your betrayal and anger give you strength. Every Sunday at noon (server time), you will receive 1 Rage Point that you may use in a secret attack by PMing me with a player's name.
We just need to keep someone alive enough to not get slam-raped by secret damage.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #25) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:27 am

Post by Nuwen »

Kinetic wrote:Nuwen, I know I sound like a broken record when I say this (and I feel like the only person who is saying it), but this whole rage mechanic could be a bluff. We don't know for sure yet if that is how it works in this game.

Everything in me is saying it would be odd to have the same exact hidden effect in two games. Maybe its a double bluff (they wouldn't possibly expect me to do the same thing), but either way I think everyone should be expecting the unexpected as well as preparing for the possibilities.
Every other mechanic has been identical, with the exception of Ophanim tracking time (72 hours here versus 48 hours in the mini). I'd rather humor the existence of rage and be cautious with non-wagon health totals than risk ignoring rage while it has the potential to exist.
WaltWishbone wrote:Your strategy is like you are playing survivor? You just want to stick around as long as possible and do not care how many Townies are left in your wake. You don't care if we win or lose and you will not listen to anyone but yourself.
And
you
were there, and
you
were there, and you were there too, strawman.

Xyl's play has been calculating, but never reckless. Whatever his alignment, it's obvious that he's playing this game to win - thus, which alignment do his posts help accelerate towards a win condition? Do you think mafia is a purely psychological game that can be played effectively and won without the deductive power of mislynching?
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Post Post #650 (isolation #26) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:18 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:nuwen - well, i wish you hadn't claimed, but you are fairly obvious town because of it. scum seraph in this situation would never have claimed if shinnen and i were both town

next to die: hoopla
It would have been obvious after I used my blade back in 625. I'd rather have that damage accounted for, explained, and used to kill our decided target as quick as game mechanics permit. The faster Shinnen flips, the faster we can confirm other players based on her voting/hurting.

Aww, I was also doing a Wishbone avatar up.

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Post Post #661 (isolation #27) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:02 am

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No hurts on Hoopla until Shinnen flips, please. If she's town, we kill Rofl.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #28) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 3:17 am

Post by Nuwen »

Hoopla wrote:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:That's the most retarded thing I've ever read in a mafia game.
Can you explain why?
Because being town and being misguided or stupid are not mutually exclusive.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #29) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:06 am

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:Hey Nuwen, come help me kill Walt.
I can't land another hurt until tomorrow evening (5:07 pm CST, if my fingers and toes addition is correct). But there may be bigger fish to fry; I need to read Shinnen again and she what she gave us. She was obviously bussed early. Every single one of her posts was outright scummy and self-incriminating, giving her scum buddies an excellent opportunity to pick up some early scumhunting points and possibly place themselves in a position to lead the town.
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Post Post #989 (isolation #30) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 4:09 pm

Post by Nuwen »

WaltWishbone wrote:
Todays lynch (hurt/heal) death is hoopla, also we all agree rofl is town right? Who care who does what?
Because Hoopla's flip will advance the game and give us more information, while healing Rofl will not. His health isn't dangerously low, so choosing to use an available cooldown to heal rather than hurt is sub-optimal play. He can be healed while we discuss the flip.
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Post Post #991 (isolation #31) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 4:12 pm

Post by Nuwen »

WaltWishbone wrote:I aint waisting my fucking vote beacuse you can count!
This is absolute garbage. Do the count yourself if you don't trust ABR or Xyl's numbers. Your hesitance is classic teetering - if you don't want to drop the hammer, say so and give a
good
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Post Post #994 (isolation #32) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 4:17 pm

Post by Nuwen »

You don't have to 'trust' anyone if you're willing to take half an hour to reread Hoopla's posts and then tally a Hurt count. The case against her makes itself rather evident, and you can just pick up counting where Flay's last post left off. Claiming to put your trust in another player is a noncommittal way of performing an action while maintaining an escape route.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #33) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 4:31 pm

Post by Nuwen »

WaltWishbone wrote:you are the biggest follower in this game.
Juls wrote:ABR...you seem more townie than anyone to me so since the game is moving at such a fast pace and I work/go to school, for the time being, I am your puppet.
Oh reery now.

Again, I really think you're just choosing to piece together a case against whomever happens to be pressuring you. If you're going to use behavior as a scum tell, it needs to be applicable outside of a one-on-one vacuum. What do you think of Juls' puppet play?
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #34) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:03 am

Post by Nuwen »

Concerning Tajo,

His early defense of the voting system, while dramatic, reads as extremely town to me. The two competing system had disadvantages and advantages - voting allows for more stringent wagon analysis, because a single consensus is forced and competing wagons tend to give way. But a voting system is slow, as a fuckton of people pointed out. Fonz's buddy system allows for quicker hurts and maximizes cooldown use, but it allows for multiple cases to run in parallel; the entire game's attention is never focused on a single target, thus 'avoiding' a stance on a wagon can be masked by simply attacking someone else or hopping on a competing wagon. Pushing one system over another is not scummy, but stupid - optimal town play was to pick a method quickly and stick to it, whatever it was.

The creators of either system are convinced that system opposed to his own functions in opposite to the town's interests. The
real
opposition to town play is the polarity brought into the game by Fonz and Tajo refusing to compromise and accept a tactic that would simply work, if not work well.

Concerning Tajo and his strawman,
populartajo wrote: HURTING WITH NO ORDER WAS THE REASON WHY TOWN LOST THE FUCKING GAME LAST TIME.
populartajo wrote:RANDOM HURTING IS NOT THE WAY TO GO.
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU THIS?
populartajo wrote:ALSO, FOR THE RECORD, MY PLAN IS NOT SYNONIMUS OF LAGGING THE GAME. I DONT KNOW WHO FUCKTARD THINKS THIS. I AGREE WITH DEADLINES.
WHAT I DONT AGREE IS THAT EVERYONE CAN HURT WHOEVER THEY THINK IS SCUM. HURT FEST ONLY BENEFITS SCUM.
WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
THE VOTING SYSTEM IS A WAY TO ESTABLISH WHO THE TOWN SHOULD HURT. ITS NOT STALLING THE GAME.
THE HEALING AT THE BEGINNING WAS NOT A STRATEGY OF STALLING THE GAME. ITS A STRATEGY OF TOPPING THE HPS OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAYERS WHICH WE KNOW ARE TOWN. WHO BENEFITS MORE OF HAVING MORE HPS: 4-5 SCUM OR 15-16 TOWNIES?
FONZ AND SUPPORTER ARE EITHER RETARDED OR ARE OBVSCUM GOING AGAINST A`PLAN THAT GIVES TOWN THE CONTROL OF THE GAME.
The Fonz wrote:You've presented your opinion on why town lost many times, you miserable self-centred piece of shit. That doesn't change the fact that you're wrong, and your plan is incredibly scum-benefitting because it will slow the game down and allow the scum to rack up more rage points.

I REPEAT FOR THE HARD OF THINKING: TAJO'S PLAN = HANDING THE GAME TO SCUM.

I am SO fucking angry right now.
Both sides committed the same fallacy:

Player_x proposes plan_x, with advantages a, b, c, and disadvantages -a, -b, -c.

Player_y proposes plan_y with advantages a, e, f, and disadvantages -a, -e-, -f.

Plan_x and Plan_x happen to share a common advantage (organization) and have a host of separate advantages, accompanied by matching disadvantages. Player_x and Player_y both latch on to the disadvantages of the other's plan, insisting that because they have the potential to hurt the town, that player is scummy. Neither acknowledges that any system of voting/hurting is going to have inherently exploitable pitfalls.
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Post Post #1101 (isolation #35) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:06 am

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen will be putting the hurt on Walt in about an hour.

Rereading Seraphim in the meantime. That Tajo tagent distracted me.
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Post Post #1137 (isolation #36) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:20 am

Post by Nuwen »

Hurt: Waltwishbone
.

"Et galeam salutis adsumite et gladium spiritus quod est verbum dei"

"Take the helmet of salvation and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God."
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Post Post #1142 (isolation #37) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:23 am

Post by Nuwen »

zwetschenwasser wrote:I'm going to start watching tomorrow.
Thanks for putting up a big red flag for scum, in the event they were thinking about using rage. You're wasting your cooldown now.
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Post Post #1205 (isolation #38) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:13 pm

Post by Nuwen »

vIQleS wrote:
populartajo wrote: Answer my big post of accusations, plz. We might as well test if you are an Ophan, just in case. Just because you claimed Ophan, that doesn mean you are town.
Didn't say it did. Although it's more likely than if I was a Seriphim...
Explain this, please. The mini's setup used an equal number of Seraphim and Ophanim. If that balance is being preserved in this game, a Seraph and an Ophan are equally likely to be scum or equally likely to be town.
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #39) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:54 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Kinetic wrote: If players think I am town of equal weight as Julz, Rofl, or Albert think I am scum, or if you feel more likely that Julz, Rofl, or Albert is scum and I am town, please Heal me.
Stop trying to widen the schism between town players and slow down the game. No heals if you have a supported wagon on you. This idea is diametrically opposed to the idea of consensus hurting, which you tried to appear supportive of in 1163.
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Post Post #1269 (isolation #40) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:02 am

Post by Nuwen »

Wishbone's claim complicates my setup predictions. 2 town Seraphim: 2 scum Seraphim makes quite a bit of sense - if Walt flips scum and his Seraph claim is correct, I wouldn't be surprised. The mini mainted a 1:1 ratio. However, if he does flip town, I'm split between going after Rofl or just proceeding down the laundry list of scummy players (Juls next). The mini's setup used 2 town Ophanim and zero scum, so it's plausible that there's uneven role distribution between the two alignments (3 town to 1 scum Seraphim).

From a scum perspective, it doesn't make sense for Walt to push confirmed town status for Rolf as me, unless he's partners with one of us (Rofl, from my vantage). However, I really doubt the existence of 3 scum Seraphim to 1 town Seraph.

Either way, I don't know if the Seraph role can still be used as town confirmation.

I don't endorse healing of any kind until we figure out what to do with Walt and we move from the killing phase back into the post-kill discussion phase.
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Post Post #1273 (isolation #41) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:30 am

Post by Nuwen »

By the way, I don't think my hurt did the double damage it should have. Flay sent me a PM last night requesting clarification of my flavor text, but I was passed the fuck out and couldn't respond until this morning. I don't know if he'll correct the damage. Henceforth, I'll try not to describe my blade of awesome in Latin.
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Post Post #1288 (isolation #42) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:49 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:Everybody hurting Walt, do you still think he is scum?
I'm waiting for a damage count to confirm or disprove his claim before I finalize my judgement. I kinda think keeping him alive and using his double damage ability as a town tool would be the best play. If he really is a Seraph, we can use his damage to burn through a few other suspected scum and then use their flips for more confirms. If he doesn't damage as ordered, we kill him. The same type of theory is used when a vig/SK is discovered and the town can't confirm that player's alignment.
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Post Post #1295 (isolation #43) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:55 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
populartajo wrote:Everybody hurting Walt, do you still think he is scum?
I'm waiting for a damage count to confirm or disprove his claim before I finalize my judgement. I kinda think keeping him alive and using his double damage ability as a town tool would be the best play. If he really is a Seraph, we can use his damage to burn through a few other suspected scum and then use their flips for more confirms. If he doesn't damage as ordered, we kill him. The same type of theory is used when a vig/SK is discovered and the town can't confirm that player's alignment.
Where have I seen this before?
I said something similar in one of my other ongoing games?
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #44) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 5:20 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:I think people are overestimating the importance of Seraphim (the role, not the player).

A Seraph has 1/3 hp than a Cherub.
A Seraph does 1/3 more damage per day than a Cherub.

That is not much of a power role.
It is still more powerful. Specially in a possible situation of 2 Seraphim scum left.
Ill have to hunt the quote where Flay explained that Scum Angels accrue rage points also in relation to their roles, making the Seraphim role even more powerful if scum.
This?
The only extra ability scum had, besides the ability to communicate secretly, was a Rage Point they could spend on a secret attack. RPs were accumulated weekly, to a maximum of 3 or 4 depending on what type of angel they were.
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #45) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 5:30 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:Do you?
Yes, actually, but I'm trying to weigh the advantage of 133% damage versus keeping another source of rage damage alive (keep a perma-observe on Walt?) and being unable to confirm/scumhunt without his flip.
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Post Post #1325 (isolation #46) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:09 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:Also, why are you so afraid of rage points?
Am I right when I am saying that scum only will have their first 4 max rage points tomorrow?
Scum killing could also help.
I thought it was just 1 per week per scum? Or do you mean 4 points between 4 scum?
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Post Post #1331 (isolation #47) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:17 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
populartajo wrote:Also, why are you so afraid of rage points?
Am I right when I am saying that scum only will have their first 4 max rage points tomorrow?
Scum killing could also help.
I thought it was just 1 per week per scum? Or do you mean 4 points between 4 scum?
4 points between 4 scum. This is correct, right?
I think there are more than 4 scum in this setup. There were 3 scum to 9 town in the mini, making 5 scum to 15 town most likely in a large. What gave you the impression that 4 was the sweetspot?

And why did you use the word "max" in your sentence?
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Post Post #1332 (isolation #48) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:17 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:Who thinks Walt is scum besides Xyl?
<-
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #49) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:29 am

Post by Nuwen »

I had a retarded number moment there, sorry.

There's a reason I'm a Classics major.
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #50) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:49 am

Post by Nuwen »

vIQleS wrote: (mainly because there's no point to a scum ophan - except as a 'safeclaim' of course...)
I disagree. A scum Ophan can be used to track other Ophan and determine whether it's safe for another member of the scum team to target a player with rage points.
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Post Post #1374 (isolation #51) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:52 am

Post by Nuwen »

EDWOP: *can be used to track another Ophan.

Trying to post while answering phones is not working well.
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Post Post #1475 (isolation #52) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:41 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Hurts on Firestarter are a poor choice. He doesn't get a free pass because his predecessor lurked, but I want to hear his catchup analysis (which he appears to be working on in good faith) before hurts are cast in his direction. Drench didn't actively lurk. Getting replaced happens to town and scum equally, so it's a null tell.
WaltWishbone wrote: She made a comment that she was gonna vote with ABR (there is nothing wrong with that).
Oh dear $deity. There's a
lot
wrong with granting an unconfirmed player a double vote while simultaneously relieving oneself of any hurt responsibility. If Juls knew that he couldn't keep up with the game after it quickly accumulated posts, the correct town play would have been to seek out or ask for a replacement. Choosing to use his inactivity as an excuse to act as a puppet is incredibly anti-town, if not scummy.
WaltWishbone wrote: She wrote she would be away, we all have jobs, and other things to do. She is reading and keeping up with the game and posting where she can. I don't see Juls-scum.
There are no effort points in Mafia.
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Post Post #1489 (isolation #53) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:03 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Between crunk time, the first round of Spring term's papers, and marathon weekend, expect my activity to drop slightly this weekend. Just an fyi. I'll still be around and reading, with a probable increase in drunk posts.

I'd really like to see more Zwet posts (gag me with spoon; that's something I didn't expect to say :p). His play has been sparse, but surprisingly lucid.
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Post Post #1500 (isolation #54) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:35 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:Guys, Juls is a girl.
This won't stop a lynch unless we all get breast pictures. Stat. I want my name on one of them.
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Post Post #1511 (isolation #55) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:50 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:Guys, Juls is a girl.
This won't stop a lynch unless we all get breast pictures. Stat. I want my name on one of them.
Seeing that I just helped kill 2 of the 5 female scummers in this game, and most of the other players refer to her as "him", I don't think my comment had anything to do with defending Juls with her sex.
All right. Next person to crack a joke gets lynched.

But seriously, I support hurting Juls and will be doing so in about fourteen hours. I really don't like that ABR has been granted a double-vote; we need to finally neuter that.
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Post Post #1514 (isolation #56) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 5:01 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:
Nuwen wrote:But seriously, I support hurting Juls and will be doing so in about fourteen hours. I really don't like that ABR has been granted a double-vote; we need to finally neuter that.
Why not kill ABR?
DGB's unDGB-like earlier onslaught really put me off an ABR lynch. Something about that exchange isn't sitting well.

... which means it's time for another reread.
Again.
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Post Post #1531 (isolation #57) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:34 am

Post by Nuwen »

... I'm still interested in Walt's flip. Why are we healing a wagoned player during the damage phase, wasting both cooldowns and time? Xyl was not the sole supporter of his lynch.
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Post Post #1592 (isolation #58) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 6:42 am

Post by Nuwen »

Seraphim wrote:I'm just throwing this out there: I don't have anything concrete yet but I wonder if there's anyone willing to back me up on an ABR hurt.
Juls first, then either ABR or Rolf (depending on how Walt flips,
if
he flips). A town Walt makes Rofl more likely to be scum; I think a 2:2 Seraphim setup is safer to assume than a 3:1. Although the ABR/Juls hydra and Rofl have been acting in tandem lately, I consider Juls to be the scummiest. A pro-town Juls should have requested a replacement, rather than seeking an excuse to empower another player in the game.

For the purposes of hurt backing, I'd like to count ABR and Juls as a single entity. There's no independent thought coming from Juls; her backing is equivalent to ABR double-posting support.

I do not endorse hurts on Kinetic, Xyl, or Firestarter (pending his post).
populartajo wrote:
Kinetic wrote:I'd also like to point out how late Rofl was on the Shinnen bandwagon...
Mayhaps his was the bus?
Im not an English native speaker but am I wrong if I say that in this sentece Kinetic admits that there was a bus in the Shinnen wagon?
There was a lot of earlier speculation about a bus on Shinnen. Her play was bad enough for it to be plausible.
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Post Post #1610 (isolation #59) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:13 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:for posterity, lets list some appeals that kinetic has been making recently

appeal to emotion
appeal to fear
appeal to authority

there's probably more fallacies going on, but those are the ones that really pop out
Speaking of fallacies, I really dislike your earlier misplaced burden of proof:
roflcopter wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:
Intent to Heal: Kinetic
Do it please.
I will unless roflcopter actually lays out a convincing case in the next 3 hours.
i'd prefer you lay out a convincing case for why kinetic is town, because you're suddenly switching your modus operandi in this game and its really weird.
With this statement, you're attempting to hit two independent birds: Xyl's tactical shift from mathematically lynching to informed lynching, and Kinetic.

Hurt: Walt
-
Flavor containing the word BLADE, for God made Latin and saw it was not good.


I realize the most support for Walt's death has crumbled, but I still think his flip as a Seraph will help determine Rofl's alignment. If he turns up scum, I'll feel slightly more at ease with Rofl's erratic play. If he's town, as most people seem to now suspect, my next hurts are hitting Juls, then Rofl.
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #60) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:13 am

Post by Nuwen »

EDWOP: *that most support for Walt's death has crumbled.
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Post Post #1615 (isolation #61) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:17 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:see, suddenly all my faith in nuwen has evaporated, because she's now setting up lynches based on killing someone and them flipping town
I said the same thing earlier.
Nuwen wrote:
Seraphim wrote:I'm just throwing this out there: I don't have anything concrete yet but I wonder if there's anyone willing to back me up on an ABR hurt.
Juls first, then either ABR or Rolf (depending on how Walt flips,
if
he flips). A town Walt makes Rofl more likely to be scum; I think a 2:2 Seraphim setup is safer to assume than a 3:1.
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #62) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:23 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote: Did you just kill Wishbone?
/facepalm.
Absolutely. Given the choice between a probability game and using psychological reads, the former is much more appealing.

No, Walt was not obvtown. His claim came conveniently after a long series of "OMG SERAPH = TOWN" posts, he has completely tunneled Xyl and every piece of his contribution to his game has been in response to pressure in his direction -
zero
active scumhunting.
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #63) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:23 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:i missed that detail while i was deciding how likely a 3:1 vs 2:2 was, if i had seen you setting up my lynch ahead of time earlier i would have been a lot more uneasy
Pro-tip: Good town play involves reading.
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Post Post #1621 (isolation #64) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:24 am

Post by Nuwen »

EDBWOP: * piece of contribution to this town.

Fuckin' laptop keyboard.
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #65) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:43 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:pro-tip: "if x is scum, i'm gonna kill y" is good town play
"if x is
town
, i'm gonna kill y AND z" is good mafia play
Not if x being town makes either y or z scum from my vantage because I can self-confirm that z is town. That's good a'huntin'.
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #66) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:43 am

Post by Nuwen »

If the town is spliced (as it is now between Kinetic and Juls), that system wastes everyone's cooldowns and slows down overall wagon progression. That system also disallows for wagons to run in parallel. The buddy system we've been using is functional enough, provided every actually uses it.
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Post Post #1655 (isolation #67) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:57 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:THE VOTING SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE REVIVED TO BRING ORDER TO THIS CHAOS.
THE VOTING SYSTEM THINKS IN YOUR RIGHT TO LIVE IF YOU ARE NOT A FALLEN ANGLE.
THE VOTING SYSTEM CAN TAKE CARE OF THE FALLEN ANGELS. IT WOULD BE NOT AS FAST AS HURTING ANARCHY BUT IT WOULD BE ORDERED.
VOTE VOTING SYSTEM NAO.
GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO.
YES WE CAN.
Put a sock in it and stop trying to disrupt scum-hunting with fifty-page-old discussion. A voting system would cripple the town with one guy playing catchup and another V/LA until next Sunday. Originally, the voting had equal merits and pitfalls to the buddy system. Pushing for it now is just retarded.
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Post Post #1658 (isolation #68) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:01 am

Post by Nuwen »

I'm an angry drinker.

:(
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Post Post #1690 (isolation #69) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:37 pm

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:I'm an angry drinker.

:(
Why when you are wrong all of you use the drink excuse?
i dontk' think rofl and walt used drunkenness as an excuse, but rather an explananation. there's a divergence between excuse, which admits culpability in intent, and misguided or -illaffected action. the former is inherentlyu scummy and will appear so, because it's offfered as an explanation to remove suspicion rather than an extension of clarity. the

walt just started using archaic contractions of 'it is' and 'it was.'

i don't remember what rofl didn, but it didn't seem like slipdrunk wriggling. i'll use my backreading time machine to confirm.
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Post Post #1694 (isolation #70) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:49 pm

Post by Nuwen »

alcohol does not negate accuracy.

although it does make it slightly more difficult to read.
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Post Post #1695 (isolation #71) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:51 pm

Post by Nuwen »

the predicate to "it" being accuracye, of course. i can read quite well.
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Post Post #1698 (isolation #72) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:13 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:I demand a drunken scumlist immediately.
absolutely. top of list correlates to scummi°ness.

Scum to the grave:
Shinnen (dead, but mostobv prior to flip)
Walt
Juls (possibly dependent on ABR)
ABR (independent of Juls)
Rofl (dependent on Walt's flip + final consensus on 2:2 vs. 3:1; i think it's safest to assume 2:2 once endgame approaches. in endgame the safest town player might be to lynchALL claimed seraphim to prevent rofl and me from presenting the town with a bad 50/50 split).

neuters (with closetown at bottom of list(:
Seraphim
Firestarter (pending rest of read, which is rather townish but sitll prevents him from providng contemporary comentary)
zwet (i always feel like killing him IRL, no matter what game we're playing in. cannot provide objective read.)
Tajo
Fonz
DGB
Xyl

posstown - less town than anyone else's town list, because you're nto town until you're both dead and green.
Kinetic

abstown - deadness is a town tell, guys.
Hoopla

Giuseppe, wlc, and tenchi need to post more. viq is a castrate, but i don't know where to place him on the list of neuters. so he's down here.
WaltWishbone wrote:One is an attempt to justify, the other to define.
This is exactly what i said, or attempted to express. tajo asked a question; i answered it. very simple.
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Post Post #1699 (isolation #73) » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:17 pm

Post by Nuwen »

also: if walt does flip mum, rofl enters the posstown catagory. it isn't a certain confirmation, but i feel comfortable enough with flay's sense of balance to preclude the existence of three scum serpahimsm.
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Post Post #1914 (isolation #74) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 4:51 am

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: I think I would've preferred her be scum, but this feels great. You slowly come to realize your own inefficiency. You come to realize that what I said was right; that you are a worse mafia player than me. Yes, this really does feel good.
Um.
Albert B. Rampage wrote: I don't like the fact that it became so personal for some people to kill me just because.
Do I even need to add a comment, or does posting these two quotes in conjunction to each other speak loudly enough?

Catching up slowly while I play a marathon and finish up work.
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Post Post #2369 (isolation #75) » Sun Mar 29, 2009 3:57 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Fuck my life, sorry for the drunk posts. I'm just popping online to apologize; I've been living in the library most of the weekend, under a large pile of papers. I've got another double work shift plus three classes tomorrow, but I'll do my best to catchup (last read ~page 80) well before any majority-imposed deadline. I might be able to get all catching up done tomorrow if my morning shifts are slow. If not, I'll be around tomorrow evening.
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Post Post #2694 (isolation #76) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:32 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote: nuwen, before you go buck nutty and start trying to kill me, are you willing to submit to death if i flip town?
Yes. There's no way Rofl can flip town right now - his "obvtown" behavior has done little else than contribute to the damage of town players, hidden behind a huge stonewall of rapid-fire hurts in every direction. Rofl is playing vig-style; we've recognized he's been a danger all game, but have allowed him to stay alive under the impression that his mercurial accusations will hit scum eventually. I'm not going to buy 3:1 arguments that try to remove suspicion from me and Rofl - assumption of town alignment is poor play.

I actually suggested that we just kill off all Seraphim earlier, to prevent a 50/50 split from distracting the town from genuine scumhunting:
Nuwen wrote:Rofl (dependent on Walt's flip + final consensus on 2:2 vs. 3:1; i think it's safest to assume 2:2 once endgame approaches. in endgame the safest town player might be to lynchALL claimed seraphim to prevent rofl and me from presenting the town with a bad 50/50 split).
On that note, I find it rather disturbing that Rofl is calling scumhunting "setting up lynches." These were not randomly selected players. Walt's flip had two possible outcomes, and I followed logical play based on either occurring:

1) Walt flips scum. Yay. Another one deaded. Both living Seraphim would be kinda-confirmed.

2. Walt flips town, making it likely that one of the living Seraphim is scum. Obvrofl.

I figured that if Walt really did come up town, Rofl and I would eventually become twin horses in a lynchee race. Rather than splice the town and waste time, I suggested that both of us would probably need to die.
Albert B. Rampage wrote:I'll post a complete case on Nuwen this weekend.
What happened to this?

What happen to a lot of your follow-through, ABR? You've been at the head at various calls/supports to lynch, but have neglected to follow up with the promised damage. At the frequency you've been shirking promised hurts, it's almost impossible to determine which may be opportunistic distancing and which seem innocuous.
The Fonz wrote: 2. Nuwen to expand on reason for killing Walt when everyone knew he was obvtown. Single scummiest thing done this game.
1. I did not believe Walt's last-minute death reactions to negate his prior scummy behavior. It's unfortunate that all of his early play was quite scummy - I rarely buy apparent changes of heart, and prefer to work with numbers rather than character examination.

Thus,

2. Walt's flip, as I said above, offered two outcomes under which both hit scum: 1) Walt himself flips scum or 2)If Walt flips town, one of the Seraphim will
probably
flip scum. Because I'm aware of my own alignment, Walt's flip gave me more info about Rofl. I don't expect anyone to trust me when I say that me being town heightens Rofls chances of being scum, so I'm offering the above-mentioned 50/50 lynch. A 1:1 town for scum trade is still valuable at this stage in the game.
vIQleS wrote: I've been watching nuwen. i haven't had any messages back yet, so until the end of my watching period, i'll go ahead and say that nuwen wasn't involved in the rage attack on kinetic.
I'm so glad Viq had the sense to separate "Nuwen wasn't involved in the rage attack" from something like "Nuwen didn't use rage, therefore town." He was one of the only people in this game to echo my sentiments that no one in this setup is going to be confirmed town until dead.
The Fonz wrote:Also, she's not posted since, so hasn't had the chance to explain herself. People have kinda forgotten about her since she's not posting.
Honey, I'm home.
roflcopter wrote:so telling me i can't use walt's support for a xyl hurt is like telling someone they shouldn't reread a dead town player's analysis.
Walt (or any dead players') support for kills is archaic. It can be used to create links, webs, and find vacuums of interactions, but attempting to use it in contemporary play is... beyond nonsensical. Should we just lynch based on everyone's page 15 scumlists?

I'm done commenting on voting/hurting systems. Too many posts have been dedicated solely to arguing about the method that will best kill scum, rather than actually hunting and killing scum. I'll use whatever everyone else is using just to halt its derailing power - I recommend everyone else do the same.
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Post Post #2696 (isolation #77) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 3:20 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote: walt was town, and you used his flip to justify supporting juls hurts, and a forthcoming attack on me. well guess what, i know i'm town too, so now you've used killing town to justify killing two more town. looks like something scum would love to try and get away with.
My case against Juls was independent of Walt's alignment (ditto with ABR). His flip was only indicative of your (and my, to anyone else in the game) possible alignment.
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Post Post #2698 (isolation #78) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 3:29 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:
nuwen wrote:If he's town, as most people seem to now suspect, my next hurts are hitting Juls, then Rofl.
That's because the Juls wagon was the one active and alive, and it would have been a waste of time to push for the lynch order's reversal? I
never
said that Walt's alignment reflected on Juls in any way.

Are you trying to avoid double lynch now? Twenty pages ago, you seemed willing to trade deaths. I still think a 1:1 exchange is good for the town. Did you not expect me to take you up on your bluff?
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Post Post #2702 (isolation #79) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 3:37 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
roflcopter wrote:
nuwen wrote:If he's town, as most people seem to now suspect, my next hurts are hitting Juls, then Rofl.
That's because the Juls wagon was the one active and alive, and it would have been a waste of time to push for the lynch order's reversal? I
never
said that Walt's alignment reflected on Juls in any way.

Are you trying to avoid double lynch now? Twenty pages ago, you seemed willing to trade deaths. I still think a 1:1 exchange is good for the town. Did you not expect me to take you up on your bluff?
i have things to do before i die. your death is but one of them. if you kill me before i'm done with these tasks, i'm sure the rest of the town will take care of you in short order. i'm pretty sure that anyone with a head on their shoulders will kill you regardless of when i die at the sight of "loyal seraph" next to my name, unless all of your scumpartners come out of the woodwork to defend you.
We're both going to end up quite dead, I think. If rage generation is accelerated, I'm assuming that the most damage-heavy member of the scum team is still going to be a Seraph. Keeping an unconfirmed Seraph alive is rather risky town play, even if all of his or her in-thread hurts are completely controlled.

Waffling on your offer to trade lynches isn't making you appear any more pro-town. At best, your vig-happy behavior is anti-town and detrimental. At worst, it's the too-obvious work of an aggressive scum player. I'm not comfortable with keeping either version alive.
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Post Post #2705 (isolation #80) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 3:43 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:so kill me
Not everyone is willing to contradict the consensus, like you are.

The town is deciding between Seraphim and ABR right now, yeah? I need to backread on both. After this damage phase, the town can decide whether or not killing off both Seraphim is the correct play. I think it is.
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Post Post #2717 (isolation #81) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:11 pm

Post by Nuwen »

12 rage points fits the bill of 5 vanilla scum + 1 scum seraph at 1 rage point per week, assuming that seraph gain extra hidden points in addition to in-thread damage. 6 scum at 2 rage points per week also fits, which either makes Rofl town or eliminates the possibility of extra role-based rage damage. Any other combination assumes that scum gain fractions of a point per week, which seems unlikely.
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Post Post #2718 (isolation #82) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:12 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen wrote:12 rage points fits the bill of 5 vanilla scum + 1 scum seraph at 1 rage point per week, assuming that seraph gain extra hidden points in addition to in-thread damage. 6 scum at 2 rage points per week also fits, which either makes Rofl town or eliminates the possibility of extra role-based rage damage. Any other combination assumes that scum gain fractions of a point per week, which seems unlikely.
^This assumes all rage points have been used, of course.
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Post Post #2721 (isolation #83) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:15 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Wait, I think more than 12 points were used. Did I miss a hurt on me during my reread? I'm trying to find it. I thought I was at health+1.

Can you do another damage total Xyl?
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Post Post #2723 (isolation #84) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:32 pm

Post by Nuwen »

I'm impatient. I totaled the damage between Flay's last kill scene and Zwet's.

2662
Mr. Flay wrote:
Without warning or prelude, viQleS crumples to the ground and bleeds out, the glow of his body sinking into the ground like rain. Upon closer examination, numerous wounds rend his holy flesh without anyone remembering where they came from. A mocking laugh echoes off the skies...
God wrote:NUMBERS DWINDLE AND THE SKIES GROW HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL STORMS... VIQLES YOUR VISION HAS BEEN DARKENED FOR THE LAST TIME.
viQleS, Loyal Ophan, has been cast out of Heaven.


FIRST DAMAGE TALLY OF THE NINETEENTH ÆON
Nuwen, populartajo, q21, and The Fonz are all at 1 HP above their normal maximum.

DrippingGoofball, Giuseppe, roflcopter and Seraphim are all at normal HP.
Albert B. Rampage has 1 damage.
Tenchi has 2 damage.
Firestarter and zwetschenwasser have 4 damage each.
Xylthixlm has 5 damage.
-1 Seraphim, 2681
Xylthixlm wrote:Hey look, I recharged.

vote: Seraphim

hurt: Seraphim
hammer. SQUEAK!
Mr. Flay wrote:
During the bickering, more screams of rage pelt your ears and lightning flashes across the sky above you. When you look back at the group, one if your number lies in a boneless heap, softly falling apart into sparks of light. Others look staggered and worn, and not just from the unrelenting combat...
God wrote:ZWETSCHEN - YOUR FRUITFULNESS IS AT AN END, IT SEEMS. WILL NO ONE STEM THIS TIDE?
zwetschenwasser, Loyal Ophan, has been cast out of Heaven.


FIRST DAMAGE TALLY OF THE TWENTIETH ÆON
populartajo, q21, and The Fonz are all at 1 HP above their normal maximum.

Giuseppe, Nuwen, and roflcopter are all at normal HP.
Albert B. Rampage, DrippingGoofball, and Seraphim have 1 damage each.
Tenchi has 2 damage.
Firestarter has 3 damage.
Xylthixlm has 5 damage.
DGB also dropped down 1 HP. Zwet was hit by 3 points.

Xyl's prior damage count accounts for 9 rage as of 2662:
Xylthixlm wrote:
Secret damage as of post 2662:
3 points of secret damage were used to kill Kinetic.
6 points of secret damage were used to kill vIQleS.
Total: 14 rage used could be:

1. 7 scum at 2 rage/week
2. 6 scum at 1 rage/week + 1 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 2 rage/week
3. 5 scum at 1 rage/week + 2 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 2 rage/week
- possible only if one Seraph is unclaimed
4. 4 scum at 1 rage/week + 2 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 3 rage/week - possible only if one Seraph is unclaimed

5. An unknown rage generation mechanic.
6. Any of the above or entirely different combination if unused rage exists.
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Post Post #2727 (isolation #85) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:41 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Nuwen wrote:Total: 14 rage used could be:

1. 7 scum at 2 rage/week
2. 6 scum at 1 rage/week + 1 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 2 rage/week
3. 5 scum at 1 rage/week + 2 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 2 rage/week
- possible only if one Seraph is unclaimed
4. 4 scum at 1 rage/week + 2 scum (Seraph, presumably) with 3 rage/week - possible only if one Seraph is unclaimed

5. An unknown rage generation mechanic.
6. Any of the above or entirely different combination if unused rage exists.
The hell are you yapping about. If there were 7 scum they would be at majority now!

4 scum = 4 rage/week
5 scum = 3 rage/week

Couldn't be more than 5 scum.
I knew I was missing something.
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Post Post #2748 (isolation #86) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:20 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:I'd rather do the math. We've already proved that I'm horrible at finding scum.
1. You are scum, and is satisfied with leading 2,3 or 4 HURT motivated kills and wants your buddies to continue your job OR
2. You have stopped "scum hunting", which also means you're scum.

Pick your poison.
Wow. Whatever example of 'loaded' in the wiki needs to be replaced with the above.
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Post Post #2756 (isolation #87) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:36 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:So Nuwen, you are actually OK with Xyl not telling us who he suspects?
Xyl using deductive logic to figure out possible sources of rage damage, some of which might be role-based. He provided scum list earlier in the game, in addition to a point-based hurt analysis - your withholding accusation isn't very tenable. Why did his setup guesswork cause your case to surface?

I
do
wish that I had a better meta on Xyl. Everything I know about him comes from reading Medieval and talking to TSQ, who just breaks into strings of profanity to describe his playstyle. Whenever I agree with a player at length in a game, I grow paranoid and think I've been manipulated or mislead. That's a nuance of my own play though, not Xyl's.
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Post Post #2761 (isolation #88) » Mon Mar 30, 2009 6:53 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:And... Xyl is online! Why not grill/question him?
Because contrived, aggressive play isn't my thing? If I have a question or want information, I ask for it. Creating a brute force onslaught rarely gets me reactions that I'm able to read; it's useless pressure.

Things still pending before deadline:
ABR reread
Seraphim reread
Get a better handle on Firestarter's posts
q21, who has been in my blind spot all game

I sleep now.
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Post Post #2816 (isolation #89) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:52 am

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:
populartajo wrote:Say it.
I watched Xyl (may or may not still be watching), whom I've been vocal in supporting, but suspected like mad, he's been a mega IIoA all game. So I hoped that he would feel confident that I wasn't watching him to make a move, and I was certain to catch him.

He is NOT on the last two cycles of scum hurts reported by Flay.
Cool. Heals plz kthxbai
Whatever outcome, we know DGB and Xyl are of the same alignment: they're either scum together or both town.
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Post Post #2878 (isolation #90) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 7:01 am

Post by Nuwen »

Long term pbpa on ABR.

74: Heal: Nuwen plus request for a heal back, presumably supporting the high health buffer plan.
81: "Look guys, Kinetic is trying stalling the game by suggesting everyone not wagoned should have a high health buffer! He also doesn't want a small group of players to lead lynches, that's really anti-town guys!"
85: More theory disagreement with Kinetic - he calls Kinetic's desire for "for mass movements of kills, in a short time frame, but from multiple players, once we've decided among ourselves on a kill" misguided, and then proceeds to vote for Kinetic.
86: Speculates 4-6 scum exist.
88: More setup speculation, plus reaffirmation that he believes Kinetic's views are anti-town.
94: Asks Hoopla whether or not she'll vote for Kinetic. Urges conversation to move away from possible setups and back to "scumhunting Kinetic and his buddies."
110: Full case against Kinetic.
118: Calls Viq hypocritical for finding Rofl's declarative statements suspicious, but not DGB's. Possible chainsaw?
129: Denies directly defending Rofl, votes for Viq.
215: Offers to drop case against Kinetic in exchange for supporting hurts on Viq: "You have but to support me in killing this vIQleS player whom you also suspect, and you tear the whole case down, providing you also act in a coherent manner afterwards."
225: "I'll support a Xyl lynch if we kill vIQleS first."
229: "I need support to kill vIQleS within the hour."
236: States "mafia is a game of manipulation," linking to three prior games as town. This is where ABR caught my attention first; mafia needs only be a game of manipulation for scum. In fact, town-side gambitry and manipulative efforts usually
hurt
the town's overall play.
242: "You play your game, I play mine. Unless you can show how my actions are bad for the town in this game, you have nothing on me."
245: Everyone needs to support killing Shinnen, Viq, or Xyl. Fonz's plan says so, guys.
254: More links to completed games.
271: Scum list: DGB, Shinnen, Drench, Seraphim. Unvotes Viq.
407: Asks Q21 whether he'll back a Hoopla hurt.
410: Hurts Hoopla.
415: FOS on Juls, calling her case OMGUS. Notes her lack of contribution.
421/424: Recommends that Seraphim build his own case against Hoopla, rather than responding to current cases with agreement/disagreement.
426: Awards town points to Walt for posting more than one-liners (What?).
447/450: WAITING FOR PEOPLE TO HURT HOOPLA COME ON.
471: Condemns Xyl's case on Walt.
478: Viq is avoiding the thread guys!
483: "Walt, you better hurt shinnen, hoopla or zwet."
509: Decide between Hoopla and Shinnen, guys.
512: "EVERYONE SHOULD NOW CONCENTRATE THEIR ATTACKS ON SHINNEN_NO_ME AND HOOPLA."
533: Points out DGB's extended period of zero hurting, calls early watching a waste.
543: Hurts Shinnen
599: Follows up speculation about whether or not scum have rage points to spend yet.
600: Admits scum might have damage points, but doesn't care: "I don't care though, I'm pretty much willing to lynch DGB because this whole exchange between Kinetic and DGB looks like it was set up by scum." - immediately follows revelation that DGB is an Ophan.
696: Intent to hurt DGB, citing all her attacks are OMGUS.
701: More intent to hurt DGB. "She was the main detractor from the Shinnen lynch, and its about time for you to see it."
708: Trusted player list: Fonz, Xyl, Rofl, Tajo, Nuwen.
715: This is important enough to quote directly:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:If Shinnen flips scum, I'll bet at least half the scum is in the list of people that ABR is pushing for the rest of us to hurt.
If this is what you think, then you should probably lay off of me until we kill some of the players that are "in the list of people that ABR is pushing for the rest of us to hurt". Starting with Hoopla.
DGB suggests that ABR's play was been a combination of 1) Bussing Shinnen and 2) Distancing scum buddies very early. All of ABR's other targets (Hoopla, Viq, Kinetic) have flipped town.
757: Hurts Hoopla
775: "I disagree with lynching Walt."
800: Also important enough to directly quote.
Albert B. Rampage wrote:Guys, look at this:
DrippingGoofball wrote:Is this OMGUS or are you afraid to die?
I was attacking her since the beginning when she said I was confirmed town. Who is OMGUSing who, exactly?

I attacked her, she tried to appease me by calling me town, I attack her again, same thing, I attack her with as much consistency as the time before, and she gets mad and votes for me with bullshit excuses of me bussing.
811: "DGB is a total idiot. I'm ignoring her (and you guys should ignore her too)."
858: Commands Hoopla to heal Rofl.
865:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:
populartajo wrote:What about if we let Hoopla survive a couple of aeons more?
Look, no. Just no. We lynch her as planned.
870: Asks Tajo to explain why Hoopla is town, then proceeds to say "she's going to die, there's no escaping it. She messed up one too many times."
886 & 893: Inquires whether or not Seraphin and Rofl will also hurt Hoopla.
898: Gently accuses Giussepe of buddying up to Rofl, without providing any other case against him. I HATE bussing/buddying/distancing cases based solely on bussing/buddying/distancing behavior; these tells are used to confirm independent cases, not determine alignment with two-directional logic.
935: "OH MY GOD VIQLES CAN USE HIS HURT. AND HE JUST IGNORED IT. VIQLES HURT HOOPLA WOWOW"
945: "Tenchi, hurt Hoopla in your next post please. This is the most pro-town thing to do because leaving players at L-1 is bad for the town."
953: "Tenchi, hurt Hoopla in your next post please. This is the most pro-town thing to do because leaving players at L-1 is bad for the town."
960-973: Explodes at Walt for wanting to heal Rofl instead of hurting Hoopla, under the threat of "tunnel-visioning":
Albert B. Rampage wrote:NO. I'm going to tunnel-vision on you so bad Xyl's attacks on you will be like a joke.

YOU WILL HURT HOOPLA.

This is by FAR the most PRO-TOWN, and NECESSARY thing to do.

Copter is at 12hp. You must hurt Hoopla. We can heal Copter later. OK?
At this point, ABR is threatening to build cases against players who do not behave as he wishes, rather than scumhuting.
995:@Walt
Albert B. Rampage wrote:misogynistic, bone-headed, $#@*

About time you listen to me, as you would probably be dead by now if I weren't there to question the attacks against you
1003: "I am down to hurt any of the following players: Viq, Zwet,
Walt
, Drench, Tenchi."
1076: Case against DGB
1117: Hurt: Drench
1124: Main suspects: Tajo, Kinetic, Walt, Seraphim
1236: Call to hurt Kinetic
1704: Hurts Kinetic
1724:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:I don't like this little giusepe dgb xyl alliance here...we should kill them all.
Stopping at contemporary play (last Saturday) so I'll have time to do an early read on Seraphim. More on ABR's more recent play after I get a bigger game picture.
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Post Post #2898 (isolation #91) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 7:19 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
roflcopter wrote:unless the claimed ophan is also scum

BRILLIANT
You know, you have to stop here and start considering this possibility since DGB is pretty much town right now.
The last game had 2 town Ophans. It was a mini. I expect at least 3 town Ophans in this game.
so unless you have another Ophan hiden, DGB cant be scum.
I'm inclined to agree with this - the mini kept a 2:0 town to scum ratio in the Ophanim department. Adding an extra Ophan but aligning it it with scum goes counter to all of our other balance speculations, which assume that the mini's setup did not favor the town enough.

I
hate
confirming players on circumstantial logic, but this setup requires the town to indulge overlapping possible setups and determine which makes the most sense.

If DGB can be pseudo-confirmed, Xyl is pseudo-confirmed. Scum Xyl requires this game to have a 2:1 ratio for Ophanim. This explains the misplaced damage on DGB, which is probably just an effort to whittle her down. It doesn't account for the random damage tossed in my direction. I'm still wtfuxing on over that.
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Post Post #2902 (isolation #92) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 7:24 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote: The same I ask to Nuwen.
I wanted to hold off until I did Seraphim and then compare the merits of each pbpa.

Independently, ABR's history shows him to value coercion over genuine support. He's more concerned with acquiring the
image
of support than contributing to a consensus.This behavior is especially evident in his interaction with Juls, even though she flipped town - he didn't throughly question the motives of her support, but instead flaunted her as an instrument to advance his own hurt agenda. Like Rofl, he's playing vig-style.
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Post Post #2949 (isolation #93) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:32 am

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:REALLY BAD META? OR WORTH AN INVESTIGATION?

Check Tajo's posts and the use of asterisks. Use CTRL+F
What? Are you trying to suggest that typos are scummy?
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Post Post #2995 (isolation #94) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:ROLF, DONT HURT SERAPHIM TONIGHT. HURT NUWEN. WE HAVE TO KNOW WHO OF YOU IS SCUM.
DO THIS ONLY AND ONLY IF YOU ARE TOWN.
Neat. I didn't know we could tell players to act in one way if they're town, and another if they're scum.

Could all scum just start hurting each other right now?

Much obliged,
Nuwen
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Post Post #3002 (isolation #95) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:52 am

Post by Nuwen »

I was being snarky, sorry.

Anyway, I do agree with the lynch split between me and Rofl, provided you lot promise kill him with fire after I flip. I'd rather flip him first, since that situation has a higher chance of hitting scum and leaving one town Seraph alive. I've been saying that he has to be scum since Walt's lynch, barring a 3:1 setup.
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Post Post #3009 (isolation #96) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:57 am

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:
Seraphim wrote:Tajo posted in caps and now we need to kill you.
Unless you are scum on my wagon. <3
Yeah. OMGUS isn't going to fly.

(working on Seraphim's pbpa. You guys are slaying me timewise; I have twin papers and a writing workshop conference tomorrow.)
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Post Post #3148 (isolation #97) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 5:10 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote: In words: The ratio of damage town deals with healing to the damage scum deals with healing, is greater than the ratio of damage town deals without healing to the damage scum deals without healing, assuming that town deals more damage than scum.
For this to be optimal, we must also assume

1) Damage algorithm does not increase over time (which could explain the multiples of damage available in week 2).

Eventually, pausing all play to heal scum damage will place the game in a stalemate. The town might be able to collectively heal all hidden damage but would need to bar regular damage as well, lest a town player hurt another town player and contribute to scum's overall damage score. The town wouldn't lose, but we wouldn't win either. If a town player damages another town player, the ratio could be tipped in favor of scum damage.
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Post Post #3150 (isolation #98) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 5:22 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Xylthixlm wrote:Yes, I'm assuming that the rates of damage are roughly constant over time.

For your second point, a stalemate is obviously bad (you can't heal damage that killed someone)... but secret damage is
almost
certainly from the scum, so healing it is good.
Fixed.

You're correct - at the current rate of rage damage/generation, if the town ceases to damage and retreats to a heal-only strategy, the town's cumulative heal output will be greater than any secret damage. However, that requires all town players to stop hurting. If the town heals, does not hurt, and scum continue to acquire rage points, one of two situations will occur:

1. All players in this game will sit at static points of health for an infinite amount of time, since it's fruitless for scum to even
try
to outdamage town healing. All scumhunting would have to cease, so no ratio change is possible. We sit in a deadlock for an infinite amount of time, or until Flay goes God on our asses. This situation assumes a cap on rage use or storage, which DGB mentioned earlier.

2. Scum generate enough rage to kill everyone instantly. This assumes no cap.

Neither situation will result in a town win. I think we should proceed as normal, but
be really fucking careful whom you hurt
. The town is running out of mislynches, and any hurt placed on a town member contributes to scum's overall damage capacity.
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Post Post #3155 (isolation #99) » Tue Mar 31, 2009 5:54 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Good.

I thought you were outlining a numerically superlative strategy with the intent to use it.

I agree - the targets of rage damage should be healed. In particular, I support the move to heal both DGB and Tajo. Tajo's play has been outstandingly town. I'm not assuming he's confirmed town in any deductive setting, but I'm comfortable enough with his actions to keep him alive. DGB's role gives the town an opportunity to semi-confirm or catch other players as well; I think she should continue watching for the duration of this game, in order to stifle rage damage or eventually lead to a situation that conflicts with fact. It's more likely that she and Xyl are town, but any future confirmation/catches can reveal additional alignment links.
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Post Post #3298 (isolation #100) » Wed Apr 01, 2009 10:59 am

Post by Nuwen »

... Brilliant. No more deaths until I can fucking get in this thread after ultimate practice; there have been too many mislynches lined up by scum in a small span of time. I am
not trusting
any player who has made lynch plans based on Seraphim flipping town. Pushing for fast lynches is going to put the town in LYLO. Stop.
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Post Post #3419 (isolation #101) » Wed Apr 01, 2009 4:26 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Blah blah blah excuses. Shea's little brother came to town a day early and my car was needed for airport/hotel runs, so I've been dashing around town with them.

READING NOW.
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Post Post #3441 (isolation #102) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:16 am

Post by Nuwen »

Alright, conclusions:

Xyl's wagon was a steaming pile of shit. Not only did DGB's results confirm him (if both were town), but his wagon has been long propelled by players everyone has mused are "too obvious to be scum." I'm looking at you, Tajo and Rofl - both of you have been strong proponents of almost every mislynch we've had this game. The number of 'mistakes' has gone well past the amount allowed in a deductive information quest. Running a test lynch on Xyl probably put us in LYLO. GG.

We know now there are four or less scum alive in this game, or Xyl's death would have been an autowin.

Everyone's awesome 'gut' has led to townie mislynch after townie mislynch. Either you bring something tangible to the thread, or your action doesn't happen.

Support intent to hurt Rofl
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Post Post #3443 (isolation #103) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:00 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote: tajo scum.
Have you lost your headcheese?

... And more unbacked hurting?

Can we just kill him already? Rofl has been allowed free reign in this game for too long, and it probably cost us the win. Next game, I'm not allowing loose canon players to hop around and muck up the game with their idiocy.
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Post Post #3446 (isolation #104) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:20 am

Post by Nuwen »

Neat. More unsupported hurting on a player
that's practically confirmed after Xyl's flip
. Are you assuming that a scum Ophan sought to confirm a town player?

I support hurts on ABR & Rofl, heals on DGB. She's the only shot we have at catching scum in a rage dump - DGB, could you continue watching players in a cycle for the rest of this game? Make it dangerous to use rage. As more players drop off, the probability of hitting scum during an action increases.

I don't support hurts on Tajo right now, but don't want heals tossed in his direction until I can properly figure out what he's been doing all game.

No idea what to think about Fonz either. He's been a heavy supporter of Rofl's gung-ho failure, but hasn't committed actions himself that I find damning. Any material against him is forged from links with other people, which I'm not comfortable lynching on without a parallel independent case.

Continuing to speedlynch is going to hurt the town very badly. Everyone needs to be doing heavy rereads, even if it's not your usual style. Do this fast, but not sloppily. This game is screwy. Deadline tentatively set for Saturday night, before scum presumably acquire more rage points? We need to hit scum before then. I think another round of rage will be the fuck that broke the camel's back.
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Post Post #3447 (isolation #105) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:22 am

Post by Nuwen »

Hurt: Rofl
, by the way.
Blahblahblah blade
.

I'm assuming Firestarter's support is enough now that we're down to 9 players.
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Post Post #3450 (isolation #106) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 8:36 am

Post by Nuwen »

The Fonz wrote:Shit shit shit. Why did I realise that Xyl's alignment depended entirely on DGB's, and that killing him whilst she lived was monumentally ridiculous, AFTER i left the house this morning?
It's all right, it's not like this equation was proposed multiple times or anything.
Nuwen wrote: Whatever outcome, we know DGB and Xyl are of the same alignment: they're either scum together or both town.
Xylthixlm wrote:
roflcopter wrote:unless the claimed ophan is also scum

BRILLIANT
So

Me being scum implies DGB is scum

Why kill me instead of DGB?
Xylthixlm wrote:OK Tenchi. Let's take this reeealllll slow and simple.

DGB claims Ophan, that she was watching me during all those rage kills, and that I did not use rage.

That leaves THREE possible situations:
DGB is town and I am town.
DGB is scum and I am town.
DGB is scum and I am scum.

It eliminates ONE situation:
DGB is town and I am scum.

Now, given those possibilities, why would you possibly want to kill me before DGB?
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Post Post #3455 (isolation #107) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 9:37 am

Post by Nuwen »

q21 wrote: I can send short messages through Flay, once every 72 hours.
To other players? Have you sent any?

Has anyone received one of these notes?

Do notes interfere with your damage/heal cooldown?
I started with 2, I get 2 every Sunday and I get 1 every time a Fallen Angel is cast from heaven. I have used none.
This is important - rage mechanics probably reflect zeal, which explains where that fuckton of rage damage came from after only two weeks.
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Post Post #3464 (isolation #108) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 10:05 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:i'm thinking i should just engage in a hurt war with nuwen that nobody else participates in. that way, whichever of us survives is low enough on hp for the town to murder in short order if its necessary.
Or put me within easy rage range if you flip first and turn up scum? This really sounds like a ploy to pump out as much damage as possible before dying.
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Post Post #3507 (isolation #109) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:04 pm

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:say nuwen, would you agree to having your blade directed by q21?
Not without another reread (I'm on cooldown for awhile anyway). At this point, I'm not taking any invites to hurt/heal at face value.
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Post Post #3509 (isolation #110) » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:32 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Re Q21's claim:

We don't need to believe or disbelieve it. Henceforth, the town control Q21's zeal points. If his claim is a complex scum gambit to explain his actions under DGB's watch, then we're actually controlling rage points - this is double plus good. I doubt his claim comes from scum; we've already decided that
town
needed a setup boost, not scum. I'm not going to speculate about a scum equivalent unless one makes itself particularly evident. Creating strange, unexpected roles to explain behavior is going to further convolute an already-murky game.

Logistics of controlling Q21:

There are clear factions forming right now. Players from each camp will be selecting targets for Q21, to reduce the risk of one scum-controlled faction gaining extra damage.
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Post Post #3629 (isolation #111) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:33 am

Post by Nuwen »

Not doing very well on the RL front.

But I'd prefer that my hurt cooldown not go to waste. Anyone object to a power-hammer on ABR?

I laid out my case on ABR in a pbpa a few pages ago - I'd prefer to get the Rofl/Nuwen split put to rest before flipping ABR, but will adapt to the semi-consensus forming against him.

If ABR is the common denominator between multiple scum suspects, why are hurts being distributed between all suspects and not being concentrated on the keystone? If ABR's flip determines other alignments in this game, I don't understand the town motive behind lowering other player's health prior to his flip. This sets up other players for rage sniping, lowers the cumulative health of the town, and delays information acquisition for the town. tl;dr: If both ABR and Fonz are scum because of a fuckton of WIFOMable bussing, why is Rofl switching off to Fonz before ABR is dead?

I also think Q21's damage splitting is foolish and anti-town. There's
no reason
to dump extra damage on one target while harming another. If Q21's zeal damage is a town tool and not a disguise for rage damage, it'd be better spent gaining ground in a damage race against scum if the town fucks up another lynch. We're either in LYLO right now (4 scum alive) or will be in the event of another mislynch (3 scum alive).
q21 wrote: I personally feel she's more likely scum than rofl. I want her at 9 life so that if rofl flips town I can kill her as soon possible (I'll be able to do that much damage once I get a bump in Zeal tomorrow). Unless the scum get a completely broken amount of rage she should still be safe at 9 if she's town.
Where did the number 9 come from? I might have misread, but thus far scum have only used 6 rage at a time. We were operating around this suspected cap to keep pro-town players out of rage range. Honestly, I see
no
reason for multiple players to be below their maximum health right now. In LYLO, there's nothing barring scum from dumping their maximum rage and then speedhurting that player in-thread for the win.
DrippingGoofball wrote:
The Fonz wrote:What I would suggest is that this being true makes a 2-2 seraph distribution FAR more likely.
My beef with this is that it would be like shooting fish in a barrel. Flay has done this setup in smaller format before. Would he paint the scum with obvious targets?

How many Seraphs are there? Four? We kill all four at game start, bang-bang-bang-bang and we hit 2 scum?
I've been mulling over this setup issue since Walt's flip - if Rofl hadn't been behind so many town deaths in addition to trying to kill off
two
people at once, the 2:2 split would seem like bullshit. But his consistent, remarkably anti-town behavior has confirmed the 2:2 to me. If both living Seraphim were actually behaving in a pro-town manner, I'd have no problem accepting a 3:1 setup.
Nuwen wrote:
roflcopter wrote:say nuwen, would you agree to having your blade directed by q21?
Not without another reread (I'm on cooldown for awhile anyway). At this point, I'm not taking any invites to hurt/heal at face value.
I've thought about the above too. If q21's claim is true (disregarding alignment), then trying to whittle away his high bank of hitpoints would be a terrible waste of time. If he's actually town and zeal points != a cover for rage damage, the town would be wasting a lot of time and cooldowns to kill yet another town player. If his zeal points are actually rage and his claim was a cover, then his damage capacity has been neutered after the dumb on ABR and two town players endgamed with him can finish him off on a hurt/heal rotation.
Yosarian2 wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
zwetschenwasser wrote:I concur. Xyl is also quick to come to conclusions without any evidence.
DrippingGoofball wrote:rofl and Xyl are still town.
So you think quick conclusions are scummy, eh?
Not sure what you mean here, Nuwen, but I don’t think anyone could claim that jumping to conclusions is a reliable DGB scumtell of any type, lol; DGB jumping to random conclusions pretty much just is a sign that DGB is playing the game.
I was commenting on Zwet's selective application. If "quick conclusions" equals a tell to him, he wasn't applying it universally at that stage in the game.
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Post Post #3630 (isolation #112) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:35 am

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
roflcopter wrote:say nuwen, would you agree to having your blade directed by q21?
Not without another reread (I'm on cooldown for awhile anyway). At this point, I'm not taking any invites to hurt/heal at face value.
I've thought about the above too. If q21's claim is true (disregarding alignment), then trying to whittle away his high bank of hitpoints would be a terrible waste of time. If he's actually town and zeal points != a cover for rage damage, the town would be wasting a lot of time and cooldowns to kill yet another town player. If his zeal points are actually rage and his claim was a cover, then his damage capacity has been neutered after the
dumb
on ABR and two town players endgamed with him can finish him off on a hurt/heal rotation.
*dump
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Post Post #3698 (isolation #113) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:49 am

Post by Nuwen »

What's the point of massclaiming, save locating any surviving cherubim for scum to kill off first? This setup is similar to smalltown - role is not indicative of alignment. Besides DGB, Rofl, and me, I'm guessing all or most surviving players are erelim.

If Yos is manipulating the kill order to preserve Fonz, why is Fonz being bumped
down
the list? Yos' action hinges on Fonz's alignment, not vice-versa.

Q21's plan is excellent if he is town. I'm still not comfortable enough with his claim and poor use of zeal points to make that assumption. If he's a megascum power role, then I worry about leaving him alive with a limited number of town players. He's basically suggesting that:

1. All remaining town players cannibalize each other while dragging scum down too.
2. The last two Seraphim kill each other off, and he'll kill the remainder.

Q21's is too convenient of a scum ploy to put my trust in right now, especially after his "poor judgement call" to split his hurts/zeal points. That last piece of behavior is more likely to come from scum that town.

If we follow Q21's plan, whomever he is aligned with will win. What needs to be decided is whether or not Q21 is
100% confirmed town
.
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Post Post #3805 (isolation #114) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:49 am

Post by Nuwen »

All right. I've done more thinking, reading, and even more thinking. The only pitfall behind following Q21's plan is that if he his scum, he's maneuvering the town into an auto-lose. But the town has pretty much lost the game anyway, so this is an okay risk to take. I want to make it clear that I've
never
before made this type of assumption about someone's alignment, and
never
expect to do it again. Add q21 to my (short) list of confirmed town.

I'd also like to note that if there were 4 scum in this game, there's no reason for them not to begin an all-out damage race. I'm banking on 3, possibly less?

Every 36 hours, I'll be hurting according to this proposed order:
The Fonz
Firestarter
Yos
populartajo
DGB

Hurt: The Fonz
blade!

Another consideration to be thinking about IS the 2:2 Seraphim setup as discussed earlier this game.
If Q is town, then he could, Could be faced by 2 Seraphim scum.
One scum Seraph is already quite dead (Shinnen). Unless both living Seraphim are both scum (impossible 1:3 setup), q21's plan will work.
i agree with q21 plan but rolf isnt the only scum alive
That's the point. Q21's plan kills EVERYONE - both remaining scum
and town
. Rofl will be the only scum alive in a three person endgame. Or Rofl is town, we'll win once everyone on the above list is dead.
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Post Post #3806 (isolation #115) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:51 am

Post by Nuwen »

q21 wrote: nuwen seems to be abstaining for now
I'm reaaaaaaally slow to act in any irreparable manner. I'm sure you all have noticed that I've done the least (or close to the least) damage/healing out of all living players.
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Post Post #3808 (isolation #116) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:02 pm

Post by Nuwen »

q21 wrote:
Nuwen wrote:
q21 wrote: nuwen seems to be abstaining for now
I'm reaaaaaaally slow to act in any irreparable manner. I'm sure you all have noticed that I've done the least (or close to the least) damage/healing out of all living players.
Its kinda typical of me to say something like that moments before you make up your mind...
Simulposting kills children.
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Post Post #3811 (isolation #117) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Post by Nuwen »

The lynch list's order doesn't matter, since its entirety will end up inevitably. The only reason to split hairs over the order is if you're planning on deviating from the plan prior to Rofl, Q21, and I entering the endgame. I'd like to hit scummier players first to (hopefully) end the game sooner.
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Post Post #3812 (isolation #118) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Post by Nuwen »

end up inevitably dead*
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Post Post #3816 (isolation #119) » Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:49 pm

Post by Nuwen »

I won't splice hairs. Tajo dying sooner makes no difference in the three player endgame setup.

The Fonz
Firestarter
Tajo
Yos
DGB

Yes? Good?

I don't know if you guys are getting it - the goal is to get all three of us into an endgame situation. Either Rofl and I kill each other (scum will probably win this damage duel with rage) and then q21 kills the leftover
or
we autowin if Rofl really is town.
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Post Post #3855 (isolation #120) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 7:35 am

Post by Nuwen »

Tajo, for the kill list to fail, only the final person on the list would have to be scum. DGB is pretty much confirmed town. Even if the penultimate player on the list is scum, scum will be outnumbered by either 3:2 (one of Nuwen/Rofl, DGB, q21) or 4:1 (Rofl, Nuwen, DGB, Q21).

What you're suggesting is a way in which scum can

1. Get all players low.
2. Snipe off townies simultaneously using rage. Theoretically, they could kill 6 L-1 players at once. Even if Rofl, Nuwen, and Q21 aren't included in that pool, it places them in a position against 3-4 scum.
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Post Post #3857 (isolation #121) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 7:47 am

Post by Nuwen »

... No, it actually assumes that DGB
will
die, just not prior to anyone else on the list. She needs to stay at 7 or 8 health until it's time to knock her off the laundry list.

Your plan also includes more room for "accidents" to occur. There's no point in using a system that provides scum with a hypothetical out that can neither be split as a town or scum action.
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Post Post #3860 (isolation #122) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 7:58 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote:
Nuwen wrote:... No, it actually assumes that DGB
will
die, just not prior to anyone else on the list. She needs to stay at 7 or 8 health until it's time to knock her off the laundry list.

Your plan also includes more room for "accidents" to occur. There's no point in using a system that provides scum with a hypothetical out that can neither be split as a town or scum action.
why does she need to die is we are assuming she prob is confirmed town?
anyways, my plan gives an out to town, in case scum have enough rage to kill q21 before. With all players but the choses ones at L-1, town will be likely to be killed fast but scum will be too.
wasnt this the idea of q21?
Because an assumption is never as good as a confirmed flip. The alignments of everyone on the list really don't matter, excluding the fact that we'll be hitting all scum in the game, sans the Nuwen/Rofl dichotomy. The towniest players are getting killed last to prevent the situation you're fearing, Tajo. It's a safe way for the town to kill off multiple scum without ever risking a lose.
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Post Post #3862 (isolation #123) » Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:05 am

Post by Nuwen »

populartajo wrote: do you think my plan is scummy?
Yes.

It presents the town with more ways to make incipient or careless mistakes - if anyone, for any reason, decides to put on a vigilante badge and go a'huntin', the town leaves itself open to be fucked over by both scum
and
a lone town player (which have been characteristic of this game).

I'm especially worried because you're trying to maneuver yourself into a kill position that
only scum would want to take from a town player
. If you're town, you should have no motivation to replace a more-confirmed town player at the end of the list.

DGB is confirmed via role-based information. Tajo is not. It's that simple.
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Post Post #3886 (isolation #124) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 2:32 am

Post by Nuwen »

Tajo next, I guess.

Hurt: Tajo
insert blade here
.
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Post Post #3902 (isolation #125) » Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:40 am

Post by Nuwen »

Why the hell is Tajo trying so hard to remain alive? Town has an autowin
if DGB is not scum
. The only way for scum to currently win is to deviate for our miss-kill plan or somehow simultaneously kill both DGB and Q21. If that happens there are still enough town alive to take out someone trying to hurt out of order or propose a different plan.
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Post Post #4028 (isolation #126) » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:44 am

Post by Nuwen »

Penultimate hurt. (Fonz) - Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:49 pm
Ultimate hurt (Tajo). - Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:32 am

That's 38 hours and 43 minutes, yeah?

Anyway,
Hurt: Rofl
.
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Post Post #4029 (isolation #127) » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:44 am

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen wrote:Penultimate hurt. (Fonz) - Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:49 pm
Ultimate hurt (Tajo). - Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:32 am

That's 38 hours and 43 minutes, yeah?

Anyway,
Hurt: Rofl
fdsffs BLADE
.
Fixed.
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Post Post #4032 (isolation #128) » Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:09 am

Post by Nuwen »

roflcopter wrote:aw fuck we lose this damage race
/snuggle
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Post Post #4047 (isolation #129) » Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:41 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Now that the damage race is definitely won, 'cha wanna help us kill Q21, Firestarter?
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Post Post #4054 (isolation #130) » Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:43 am

Post by Nuwen »

Hurt: Q21
blade
.
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Post Post #4067 (isolation #131) » Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:59 pm

Post by Nuwen »

First ever mafia win for me (second completed non-marathon game). Absolute cakewalk. Town cannibalization played the game for us until only aggressive players were left, who proceeded to mow each other down.
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Post Post #4083 (isolation #132) » Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:56 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Tenchi wrote:So wait... q21, you were the only one behind all the Rage?
No. Each living scum player gained one rage every Sunday at noon and one rage point every time a loyal angel was killed, up to a maximum of three unspent points (four for me, a Seraph).
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Post Post #4142 (isolation #133) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 4:20 am

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote: Nuwen was obvscum because of the opportunistic timing of her claim and her killing of Walt. I mean why didn't anyone build a case on her lol
My claim was an alignment WIFOM mess after Rofl made the statement "no scum would claim now, the correct play would have been to let both town seraphim kill each other." It seems opportunistic in retrospect, but at the time was an action equally likely to be taken by a town or scum player. Null.
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Post Post #4143 (isolation #134) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 4:24 am

Post by Nuwen »

Albert B. Rampage wrote:Copter and Fonz = confirmed town. Come ON. It was totally obvious.
I would have nailed Rofl to the ground as a town player, and for good reason. Town or scum, he single-handedly caused the most non-rage damage to town in this game.
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Post Post #4145 (isolation #135) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 4:41 am

Post by Nuwen »

Nuwen wrote:All right. I've done more thinking, reading, and even more thinking. The only pitfall behind following Q21's plan is that if he his scum, he's maneuvering the town into an auto-lose. But the town has pretty much lost the game anyway, so this is an okay risk to take. I want to make it clear that I've
never
before made this type of assumption about someone's alignment, and
never
expect to do it again. Add q21 to my (short) list of confirmed town.
I was slightly correct. Q21's plan caught my eye because when I ran it through a number cruncher, there were multiple ways for both town
and
scum to win - anyone with half a calculator could have done the math and seen that it wasn't a town autowin in the slightest. His plan makes more sense coming from an SK; I just thought he was a dim town player.
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Post Post #4147 (isolation #136) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 4:45 am

Post by Nuwen »

Hah, I thought your and (and DGB's) SK suspicions were just another spurious element tossed into the game.
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Post Post #4148 (isolation #137) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 4:46 am

Post by Nuwen »

Well done guys, by the way. Our scum team contained a lot of conflicting playing personalities, but we meshed well.
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Nuwen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2487
Joined: December 22, 2008
Location: Charlotte, NC

Post Post #4155 (isolation #138) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:58 am

Post by Nuwen »

The Fonz wrote: What do you mean, forgot? There was no evidence of a rage cap! If there had been, I'd have acted completely differently. What do you think all those arguments about 'scum is going to kill SOMEONE' were about?
Inaccurate. I actually quoted a piece of the mini about a cap on rage to Tajo in-thread, and that same piece of information was available to anyone inclined to seek it out.
Nuwen wrote:
populartajo wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:I think people are overestimating the importance of Seraphim (the role, not the player).

A Seraph has 1/3 hp than a Cherub.
A Seraph does 1/3 more damage per day than a Cherub.

That is not much of a power role.
It is still more powerful. Specially in a possible situation of 2 Seraphim scum left.
Ill have to hunt the quote where Flay explained that Scum Angels accrue rage points also in relation to their roles, making the Seraphim role even more powerful if scum.
This?
The only extra ability scum had, besides the ability to communicate secretly, was a Rage Point they could spend on a secret attack. RPs were accumulated weekly, to a maximum of 3 or 4 depending on what type of angel they were.
So high, so low, so many things to know.
aim:gochat?roomname=ScumChat&Exchange=5
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Nuwen
Nuwen
Mafia Scum
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Nuwen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2487
Joined: December 22, 2008
Location: Charlotte, NC

Post Post #4204 (isolation #139) » Thu Apr 09, 2009 9:19 am

Post by Nuwen »

There were moments when we were
sure
that we'd be outted. Can we post the QT yet?
So high, so low, so many things to know.
aim:gochat?roomname=ScumChat&Exchange=5
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Nuwen
Nuwen
Mafia Scum
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Nuwen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2487
Joined: December 22, 2008
Location: Charlotte, NC

Post Post #4372 (isolation #140) » Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:03 am

Post by Nuwen »

There isn't much to constructively critique, ABR, besides "stop being an effluent asshole." You do not need to always posture yourself to be correct at the cost of whomever is addressing you - in fact, you'll probably go much further with your overly manipulative gestures if you allowed your subjects to remain a rung up.
So high, so low, so many things to know.
aim:gochat?roomname=ScumChat&Exchange=5
User avatar
Nuwen
Nuwen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Nuwen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2487
Joined: December 22, 2008
Location: Charlotte, NC

Post Post #4374 (isolation #141) » Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:07 am

Post by Nuwen »

/anime fall
So high, so low, so many things to know.
aim:gochat?roomname=ScumChat&Exchange=5

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