Toriel's Patience (end)

[RCEnigma]

Hey! I’ve read 5ish pages, I have….varying confidence in reads but one was that meuh was town, so that’s nice I guess.

At the very least pushing to hammer in the middle of finding a replacement is !SKETCHY! So that’s also nice, I guess.

Idk what kind of bit I’m doing but I’ll probably keep it going till I get bored, I guess.

[RCEnigma]

don’t get pocketed this time rce >.>

Too late!

[RCEnigma]

Actually, I don’t have as many reads as I thought I did this morning.

Brown eyes/meuh/dannflor townie

Saw Dunn was Toriel, mind told me Dann was Toriel — still ignored Dunn.

Initially thought if Dann *was* scum, it would be with Taly. But I’ve read a little bit of recentish posting that says that’s probably not accurate.

[RCEnigma]

Hey! I’ve read 5ish pages, I have….varying confidence in reads but one was that meuh was town, so that’s nice I guess.

At the very least pushing to hammer in the middle of finding a replacement is !SKETCHY! So that’s also nice, I guess.

Idk what kind of bit I’m doing but I’ll probably keep it going till I get bored, I guess.

What are your current thoughts on

Spare

/

Fight

?

Well….I’m personally on the back foot having little to no gamestate knowledge so mountainous doesn’t really benefit me as a player. But that’s selfish, otherwise I wouldn’t mind playing the game straight up.

[RCEnigma]

Adding on to 2658

The pairing read was mostly what Dann was doing, not what Taly was doing but the reconsideration was based on what Taly was doing and not Dann.

[RCEnigma]

Alas, alas.

I also am inclined to go after the empty slot next.

Because there's going to be no contributions from it?
I might have to read Ari's iso first but I guess we could go for it if Ari was scummy.

Nah, I never really found Ari as town and have mentioned a couple times that the slot is in my PoE.

Hey, that’s me. I think.

[RCEnigma]

RCE

do you ever have those D1's where you emphatically believe someone is scum despite your top two townreads telling you that they are town, but you ignore that and proceed to eliminate said scumread, AND they actually flip town

that's me

that's my character arc right now

Yep, then I practice the art of shutting up and it turns out my second strongest scumread was scum that never got pushed because I stfu and it feels pretty great….

[RCEnigma]

I mean Dunnstral isn't even voting and we're on evens so that should speak volumes

Boy I hope Ali is town because I don’t think I’ll be scumreading this at all.




Foreshadowing.

[RCEnigma]

Adding on to 2658

The pairing read was mostly what Dann was doing, not what Taly was doing but the reconsideration was based on what Taly was doing and not Dann.

now im curious

So my process was kind of like, based on the back and forth I think Dann is kind of townie/ Taly is kind of…eh I’ll think about it later. But iiiif Dann is scum, it’s the exact kind of nothing topic that leads nowhere and gives some room for early distancing.

Because it’s a pivot point, at any point it’s pretty easy to look back on it and go ehh yeah I guess I can see how town would think that, and hand wave it.

I think recently I saw you still pushing the dann possible scum angle and it’s enough distance from that early game to read it as provisionally genuine. Obviously I need to read the game to confirm if it’s true and that I really believe it.

[RCEnigma]

I'm getting popular

I think

Dunn

is above rand town

Is this a joke because there are only three wolves? I think I get it!

Being popular must be nice totally not at all jealous.

Are you new

Keyleth?

Are you new

Keyleth?

Do you always bold usernames? It brings attention to the eyes but is also slightly intimidating.

I'm not new to mafia, no! Why do I give off that impression? I've played video mafia and forum mafia before although I saw undertale theme and was like 'omg I have to join this.'

but also i do not know how useful discussing dunnstral's alignment is since he's getting flipped no matter what

He's the most important to discuss,

because

he's getting flipped no matter what.

Really? I thought the exact opposite!

Mind melding

VOTE: taly

I want to know more about this tbh, I thought what I said was pretty mild

saying you town lean toriel just seems like the safest possible thing you could say that can also be classified as game talk

and that is regardless of dunnstral's alignment

do you have thoughts on anyone else so far

Keyleth and Mandate passed the vibe check

Also whats safe here? I don't get how what I said is protective on a game that just began. Much less effective to try and pocket Dunn, hypothetically.

I mean I've sat here looking at this on and off for the last couple hours and I really do think this is just two scum, the way the two of them force an engagement with each other over everything else in thread at this point, the difference in tone from the surrounding commentary on actually game related materials, and the follow up behaviour. It's also worth pointing out that Keyleth in this game uses emojis exactly twice and they are both in these responses to Taly which helps to make that exchange stand out even more from everything else that the two of them have done this game.

Ok see this is the kind of posting I’m a sucker for. So.

Especially the emoji bit.

[RCEnigma]

I uhh, don’t remember us playing together. If it was relatively recent I’d feel worse.

[RCEnigma]

Hi Sakura! I don’t have any confidence reading you. So a little summarization of why you’re town would be helpful.

[RCEnigma]

Actually now that I’m considering meta, Taly is probably above rand town with questionable early game reads.

[RCEnigma]

Hi Sakura! I don’t have any confidence reading you. So a little summarization of why you’re town would be helpful.

You could try following your predecessor:

I think sakura is kinda townie

I think the main thread roleplaying was even funnier at some points though

but maybe that's just me

p-edit: Sakura...townie?

she's got a lot of idc energy

sakura is probably the easiest player in the playerlist to read and she's p townie so far

she's more self conscious as mafia and makes posts that feel like she's thought them through more

I think Ari summarized it very well in those posts. I'm bringing her since she's your pre-predecessor and you know her alignment.
If you ask me, all i can say is that i dont have any confidence in explaining anything this game, not even myself, been lost for the majority of it and a lot have been gut pings.

Also you should know that im currently busy IRL, and so i only read and post in bursts.

I like this. I’m inclined to trust aristeia’s take.

[RCEnigma]

All of the people that immediately are like "OK NEXT INACTIVE" are mafia

Agreed, but I’d probably look into Shirou/key, then the others that I haven’t read posts from yet, then Ydrasse. Idk if you have deeper suspicion you’re basing the Ydrasse read on.

[RCEnigma]

All of the people that immediately are like "OK NEXT INACTIVE" are mafia

assuming this is subtweeting me this is also just incredibly inane

meuh has 5th most posts in the game, she wasn't being arbitrarily limmed for inactivity

I've said for a while that Ari's slot is in my PoE

I am potentially willing to buy the townslip just because I don't really think scum ali would be especially likely to fake it. Not because of not being capable just because of like, idk why e would

That wasn’t really directed at the votes on meuh, just the slots that saw meuh flip and went “well…scum is probably just not playing then” because what kind of logic leap is that when you have a whole wagon that just flipped a townie.

[RCEnigma]

I’m also in a particularly interesting position knowing my own slots alignment. So on my rep in I read the page or two before, saw meuh was flipped as town. Saw Shirou immediately go, well since RM isn’t playing that’s a good next vote and thought wow that’s a really Wolfy post to make.

Given the context, even without knowing my alignment it’s just not good.

VOTE: Shirou

[RCEnigma]

In what way?

[RCEnigma]

So the way I was reading mandate in the first errr 8 pages or so was like I was in newbie queue with a playerlist that wants to take a serious approach to mafia, which I do like in general. But from the perspective of an SE so I have a checklist of things I suggest new players look for when hunting alignments and mandate kind of hit the checklist for me.

Idk what kind of impact Ydrasse has or hasn’t made on the game yet so I’m, at least somewhat curious what the deeper context is.

[RCEnigma]

My only impression of Dunn is hammering town while waiting for a replacement so….

[RCEnigma]

so am i missing some big brain thing on

ydra

!scum or is her response just genuine?

I assume almost if not all AtE is genuine but not alignment indicative.

[RCEnigma]

shhh,

dunn

is town and is getting flipped regardless, dont worry about it

Is that a Toriel mechanic or because Dunn is Toriel they are going to get flipped regardless?

[RCEnigma]

I AM NOT A FUCKING COSPLAYER CHARACTER

Lol

[RCEnigma]

shhh,

dunn

is town and is getting flipped regardless, dont worry about it

Is that a Toriel mechanic or because Dunn is Toriel they are going to get flipped regardless?

Dunn always dies

This is good news.

[RCEnigma]

0-dimensional chess is my new term for a post that seems to want to ignore the nuance of WIFOM and call something that "scum would obviously do" scummy, even when it'd definitely be apparent to that person that what they were doing was scummy, so why would they make that post in the first place. Particularly w someone like Shirou with a noted scumgame and lots of experience.

Calling something 0-dimensional chess is not the same thing as making a too scummy to be scum argument, because that phrase is loaded and incorrect sometimes whereas this new one is always accurate

I can consider wifom and Occam’s razor will still say scummy thing is probably scummy.

[RCEnigma]

But yeah it’s like a foothold vote while I get deeper into the game. I think I’ve implied that but explicitly saying it takes away from the vote….so that’s cool now, I guess.

[RCEnigma]

You’ve sold me VOTE: Freedom

[RCEnigma]

There is enough dead end probing just in the few posts you quoted that I think is scum indicative. Or at least indicative of surface solving. I don’t think there would be a drastic flip to that if I deep dive in freedoms iso but…

Also have issues with implosion recent posting but I can bin it since I see at least a possible world it comes from town.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah idk Alisae I’m on page 15 right now and every mandate post is like….man that’s a really town process. I just don’t see scum even considering “oh I have to skirt around this overarching concept because even mentioning it could potentially invalidate catching scum in a strategy with a potentially large flaw”

The potentially parts are particularly notable to me since I often find myself setting slots up with a scum expectation and form a better read on whether they meet or move away from that expectation but that’s on a grander scale.

[RCEnigma]

Ok so that’s not all the way true, I’ll say there are a handful of players that I can see:

A.) having the thought to do something like that as scum

And

2.) Actually putting it into practice to better the gamestate for themselves

None of those players are in this game as far as I know.

[RCEnigma]

It definitely helps that this is the kind of setup where I fully expect scum to be going full on buddying each other trying to make a pseudo townbloc

Why would you expect scum necessarily to go "full on buddying each other"?

Fight route looks similar to mountainous and sparing a mafia in Mercy route through a "pseudo townblock" would cause suspicious to be cast on the people in it afterwards

I think scum would be more likely to try to buddy other players in this game but I don't understand why they would willingly associate themselves and risk diminishing their individual odds of being spared after one of them is

I think, personally this just goes to show that when you have something like this, there's a lot of unexplored ways on how a wolf could or should play it. Getting locked into the mindset of how they would is sort of exactly what I think they'd want us to do?

That's why I personally wanted to go Mercy because it's like, a lot easier to just let people show their thoughts and everything they feel in a good light vs who is trying to work the thread to their advantage.

A keyleth post I like. Shows some consistency and doesn’t come off as a cop out to not scumhunt.

[RCEnigma]

I actually sort of feel the opposite, I think it it gets into a big game of people fighting to be the most town it becomes a lot harder to solve, but I don't think it's as important whether we spare or kill as not sparing scum!Dunnstral and not killing town!Dunnstral.

Really? In my experience of video mafia and other stuff it at least felt a lot harder for wolves to fake a townread on their teammate vs making a wolfcase on inconsistencies of weaknesses villagers do. Maybe I'm incorrect in my theory and have a bit of choo choo brain because of my urge to send over all of Dann/You/Taly

Video mafia makes sense. My first impression of forum mafia was that it would translate pretty smoothly and it did not…

[RCEnigma]

I haven't actually calculated the EV of either option and I want to do that before I answer that question. I think nearly always the play is spare unless I'm quite sure Dunnstral is scum but since spare + kill removes two of the most townread players per phase as opposed to Lim+NK lopping one from top and one from bottom it might actually not be as good an option as it seems at race value.

I didn’t even really consider sparing takes town power away from town just by virtue of being right. I guess it’s negligible with enough townbeards and a mechanical plan *bingle*…probably.

[RCEnigma]

If you guys let me keep posting I’m absolutely going to keep posting and talking to myself.

[RCEnigma]

Coming up then, just don’t nk me scum cuz I’ll spew like 8 slots as locktown.

[RCEnigma]

Page 17 added reads
-beeboy town
-Merlyn scum, just because I just remember they existed and that doesn’t feel….Merlyn…y
-Shirou could actually be towning and the forces Dunn deeper into a scum Poe for me.

[RCEnigma]

I’m basically going to live or die on townreading Alisae this game. I’m unreasonably confident on their alignment.

[RCEnigma]

You’re pretty secure in my townreads.

If I had to compare you guys to anime I’d say you’re like, my hero academia - it took me a few episodes to think, oh ok this is going to be a banger

But Alisae is JJK - I watched an episode and said “oh my god this is heat”

[RCEnigma]

Reads are looking like:

Town af - alisae
Town - Taly/Ydrasse
Reasonably town - brown eyes/Sakura
Growing on me - Shirou/keyleth/beeboy
Eh idk - dann
—————-
Dunn goes here
Dunno pile - shirou/implosion
Freedom

Rip meuh

[RCEnigma]

How do I feel about that? I’m only really confident in the top three.

Brown eyes isn’t very prevalent in the game up to where I’ve read but his posting is good. That’s so vague but I guess it’s…tonal/vibe?
Same with Sakura and having an endorsement from my predecessor is a plus.

Shirou & keyleth both have positive and negatives so I can go either way with the reads until I get deeper in the game. But I guess it pushes beeboy to the front of that group.

Dann is an interesting slot that I only have this low because of datisis university where I gave him a lot of wiggle room for being loose, aggressive against slots I wouldn’t expect from scum, and having complex progressions that I didn’t expect from scum!dann. Even if I did consider him a strong scum player to begin with. So he’s kind of suffering from a shorter leash via recency bias.

[RCEnigma]

Evidence is inconclusive on the other slots so I can’t really begin to approach townreading any of them.

Dunn should probably be below the dunno pile.

[RCEnigma]

If it's between Meuh and Alisae i... dont really know which one to vote, but i'd probably go back to Meuh now that Alisae's actually playing. I'd rather eliminate freedom tho.

then vote there but explain why

I thought I already did, but Merlyn's vote on me gave me weird feelings.
VOTE: freedom

Is this not a thing for you anymore Sakura?

[RCEnigma]

A dann vote semi interests me but not as much as a freedom one with a bloc around it.

[RCEnigma]

It’s not great…

[RCEnigma]

Bingle replaced brown eyes, I would appreciate some bingle input.

[RCEnigma]

im not saying thats what you said, im telling you my thought process

dann

said there is not a coherent reason to scumread

ydra

and i figured it would be more effective to justify the townread rather than pushback on the wagon itself

I can't really speak for Dann on the matter but I'm trying to think of both in a context but I don't see why one is townier or wolfier than the other? Maybe I should go reread it again under new information. I jisut assumed stuff like this was playstyle clash because both accomplish the same goal it's just how you're doing it, no?

Given we plan on going spare I can see both worlds where you want your wolf teammate to be townread so they get spared but not connected because of how bad that looks flip wise ya know? However, I will sob if two of my strongest TR's are both wolves.

I know that's not what you're saying, but it's where my brain led. I like the conversation though cause if I'm wrong someone needs to bonk me.

Well the former is in good faith and the latter has the potential to be dubious.

So why you would do this as scum is that you kill multiple birds with one stone. If you as scum know X slot is town and being pushed you can push against the wagon and still get in a better standing with X slot by virtue of doing so. But you also discredit the slots that are pushing X.

It also leaves an Avenue to pivot onto X slot because you didn’t explicitly townread X slot at the time you just disapproved of the wagon for whatever reason and it seems like a more natural progression than a raw 180 on X slot.

In a hypothetical world.

[RCEnigma]

If it's between Meuh and Alisae i... dont really know which one to vote, but i'd probably go back to Meuh now that Alisae's actually playing. I'd rather eliminate freedom tho.

then vote there but explain why

I thought I already did, but Merlyn's vote on me gave me weird feelings.
VOTE: freedom

Is this not a thing for you anymore Sakura?

I heavily disliked Dann's vote and reasoning on me.

What does that have to do with freedom?

[RCEnigma]

Fair, input on freedom and the wagon itself would still be appreciated.

[RCEnigma]

I didn’t get the impression that mandate was RC.

[RCEnigma]

Not that it matters much.

[RCEnigma]

Is RC surprisingly reasonable now?

[RCEnigma]

Yeah idk Alisae I’m on page 15 right now and every mandate post is like….man that’s a really town process. I just don’t see scum even considering “oh I have to skirt around this overarching concept because even mentioning it could potentially invalidate catching scum in a strategy with a potentially large flaw”

The potentially parts are particularly notable to me since I often find myself setting slots up with a scum expectation and form a better read on whether they meet or move away from that expectation but that’s on a grander scale.

RC is actually one of the handful of players I was saying could reasonably do this as scum.

[RCEnigma]

What does your heart of hearts say Ydrasse?

[RCEnigma]

If nks were in play I probably would have just fake townread you on the assumption you were scum and sorted from there.

[RCEnigma]

What the freedom wagon comes down to is whether we’re willing to risk mercy on it flipping scum. Probably favorable to just fight if freedom is town.

[RCEnigma]

A

sakura/ali/dann/ydra

town world is a difficult gamestate to navigate through the multiple 1v1s

I think this is plausible. I don’t really share the same view of Dunn as you though if that’s worth anything.

[RCEnigma]

Ok spare is just saying we can’t hit two scum, regardless if we hit scum before day 2.5 or not.

[RCEnigma]

Wouldn’t you want Taly last? Or at the very least in the event we spare scum.

[RCEnigma]

Scum still get night kills right, nvm.

[RCEnigma]

Hmm, shirou probably town for how they engaged Taly around the meuh wagon and wanting more credit for the flip. Preflip that is.

[RCEnigma]

Well, Dunn is the first spare if we pick mercy right? Then you probably eat the nk and I brute force Ali to get spared and then???? Panic?

[RCEnigma]

Does this make one of Bingle/RCEnigma a wolf? It sort of makes me want to move my vote but that's really greedy so I shall just sit here and just, ya know sit with this thought in my head. I share the opinion with Dann that I don't really understand the Implo townreads but my read on them has gotten a tad lower because of the public opinion. Maybe I shouldn't follow that though? It's hard because I like to trust overall say vs my own, especially in a game where people seem very familiar. Feeling like a double voter.


The downside of Taly being the first spare is I don't get to log on and smile at Taly posting noise. It's charming.

Why this dichotomy?

[RCEnigma]

You intend to read all these pages?

I gave up this dream ngl.

[RCEnigma]

Well, Dunn is the first spare if we pick mercy right? Then you probably eat the nk and I brute force Ali to get spared and then???? Panic?

What does this mean?

We go mercy -> Toriel gets spared -> Taly probably gets nked -> Ali spared-> then it’s a tight game.

[RCEnigma]

There is no night kill between Toriel being spared and the next spare.

Nights 1-3 are skipped. Toriel is the day 3 Spare, and then the following night is the last skipped night.

Oh. Push it back a night then.

[RCEnigma]

i still genuinely dont know how to approach

bingle's

alignment

does scum say unhinged shit to save their ass when it wasnt necessary?

but, i want to townread it... because

bingle's

made plays like this as town before

like

what

im honestly trying here and im getting nowhere

I think this is a later problem. If you go down the rabbit hole now you’re going to lose sight of just flipping scum by chasing a maybe. I doubt it gets clearer for you by stressing over it.

[RCEnigma]

If I say BE Taly Keyleth Dann is all town
And I also like Meuh Implo Sakura
And add a very gentle townlean on Merlyn

There should be lots of scum in Beeboy Ali Shirou Dunn Aristeia

I tr mandate but, this seems like an inordinate amount of town in the scum pile.

[RCEnigma]

My read on Keyleth is based on the feeling that they really misunderstood the setup, and that relies on the thought that mafia are more likely to understand it as they would have had time to talk about it, but that is not infallible logic as it is based on an assumption.

Lazy Shirou I liked their posts spanning from 378 to 449, but I am wary about them because I think they are capable of trickery and I don't have a good read on them. On second thoughts I really like posts 378 and 449 so I would move them out of the 'least confident' designation.

Merlyn simply does not have a lot of content, and this was pretty much a pure tone read.

I like this keyleth read. Mostly in the Dunn being aware and still giving the read out knowing that’s it’s super scumteam composition dependent.

[RCEnigma]

I’m also running into an issue where I have keyleth kind of high in towniness and it’s mostly because of other people pointing out things they think are townie about keyleth and nothing I’m seeing them doing and idk how to feel about it.

Taking my own advice and making it a later problem though.

[RCEnigma]

i don't think alisae is town anymore

You’re cruisin for a bruisin pal!

[RCEnigma]

I’m curious why though.

[RCEnigma]

I err don’t really find apathy as alignment indicative for Ali.

[RCEnigma]

dunnstral, dannflor, implosion, aliase, keyleth, lazy shirou-

help

U think I’m a helicopter parent sink or swim bitch

Oooooo snap.

[RCEnigma]

I’m also running into an issue where I have keyleth kind of high in towniness and it’s mostly because of other people pointing out things they think are townie about keyleth and nothing I’m seeing them doing and idk how to feel about it.

Taking my own advice and making it a later problem though.

i don't really understand this take RCE

either you see what other people are pointing out and you see it too and agree with it or you disagree with it

i don't understand why you have keyleth high in towniess if you aren't seeing it yourself

It’s coming from slots that I think are town, and the tales are reasonable. So I go yeah I *could* see that.

But I didn’t see it, like as I’m reading through there hasnt been a point where I pinned a post as townie and then someone came behind and reaffirmed that I’m reading it in a similar vein as someone that actually finds them town.

So there’s a disconnect. It could mean nothing or it could be something it’s just….idk weird to me.

[RCEnigma]

I don’t find keyleth scummy, I’m just townreading them in an uncomfortable way and as long as I’ve played i haven’t come across a feeling like that.

[RCEnigma]

why are there votes on

RCE

tbh

Aristeia scum

I kinda don’t think she was.

[RCEnigma]

do you have town reads at a spare level besides taly/ali, RCE

Ydrasse is close, shirou is close.

[RCEnigma]

Don’t mind waiting, also not alright with a consensus top 3 spare list cuz it’s just gonna get sniped.

There is merit to the order some slots get spared in if it can be helped tho.

[RCEnigma]

Also I dont understand why mercy is the foregone conclusion here, that seems questionable, like yall have been wrong twice and there's a rush to potentially spare scum!Dunn putting us immediately into a situation where we have to dodge scum spares for what, 4 days straight?

And nobody seems to be considering this

I was told the alternative was scummy. I think the EV favors mercy but eh.

[RCEnigma]

Keyleth, Lazy Shirou, Taly, Sakura Hana, Dannflor, Dunnstral

oh look
it's the same people that decided to kill meuh

I like this line of thought though

Freedom and Meuh Wagoners:

Taly

, Sakura,

Dunn

, Keyleth

Meuh-Only Wagoner:

implosion, Ydrasse

Freedom-Only Wagoner:

RCEnigma, Shirou, Dannflor

Off Both Wagons at Elimination:

Alisae, Bingle, ssbm_Kyouko

Everyone should succinctly give their spare order of

3.

I have thoughts I don't want to say at the moment

Like according to this there were 4 players on both wagons and one is getting yeeted before we move to D4. We can go kill route and kill all 4 of these players and we only lose if all 4 of them were town.

I think the towncore is likely infiltrated and sparing is a lost cause

HURT:

I like the line of thought but some things to consider:

The odds that the entire scum team are in the town block is low.

The odds scum got Toriel and the other two solidified themselves in the town bloc is… I was gonna say lower but probably not.

If the town bloc is compromised and scum lead both lims then the difference between mercy and fight only comes down to dunns alignment because scum will still have major control over lim targets.

Would also have to consider Taly scum which I’m not thrilled about.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah that was my impression too, especially since I wasn’t really sure Dunn is even town.

But I’m in the minority for both scumreading Dunn and supporting fight.

[RCEnigma]

Either way I think I want alisae as the first spare if we are going that route and I’m putting my weight behind whatever lim alisae supports if we fight.

[RCEnigma]

I know Taly, I know.

[RCEnigma]

I have a tinfoil that kyouko is scum with a deep wolf and is counting on us sparing a deep wolf and then panicking into “oh shit spare was the wrong choice!”

Maybe Dunn?

I just don’t know how anyone can legitimately look at implos numbers post and say: yup, let’s fight. Especially with the argument that scumhunting is easier than townhunting here.

Well numbers are numbers and we are people that have missed on 2 lims so. There’s that.

[RCEnigma]

im going to pass away if

dunn

is scum

Probably yeah.

[RCEnigma]

Just looking at this from 600 it's like, even if dunn is scum and we fight we drop from 35% to 27.27% if we spare scum!dunn instead, but we lose so much by killing town!dunn (going from 59.7% to 17%)

Suppose we mislim twice. Then if we choose Fight, 3/12 that we go to 2:9 mountainous (35% town win) and 9/12 that we go to 3:8 mountainous (17% town win) for about a 21% EV.

If you're thinking Dunn is scum right now ask yourself would you rather lose 8 percentage points or 42?

Just tell me if you’re more confident finding town X times in a row or finding scum X times in a row.

[RCEnigma]

Was just waiting on Dunn to weigh in HEAL:

[RCEnigma]

Uhhhh

[RCEnigma]

Cmoooooon *pokes Dunn* do the thing

[RCEnigma]

Either way I think I want alisae as the first spare if we are going that route and I’m putting my weight behind whatever lim alisae supports if we fight.

I just don't understand this though like why Alisae. It's so against the grain of everyone else's opinions (as far as I can tell, except maybe Freedom's), and it's hard to see any reason why e should be town - especially hard to see why e would be more town than Taly or {others I should probably stop being specific about}

If I can tonight I’ll get into this. If not then I’m the morning.

[RCEnigma]

Lol sorry if I tanked your spare chances Ali.

[RCEnigma]

@Kyouko:

So I don’t really have an impression of Ali’s play before I repped in but I came in right after the meuh flip.

So for me, things like the frustration flipping town when they were on a counterwagon (even if it ends up they were on another townie or not) rings town.

Getting the PL to hyper focus on the meuh voters doesn’t really benefit scum!ali unless the exact team is like Taly, dann, Dunn, Ali or whatever combination thereof.

I’ve like Ali’s posting on tone, vibe, comfort, and content. Like for example I’ve somewhat recently seen Ali play with this….idk guerrilla fighter style. Where their posting is very flippant and casual and then has bursts of good content and critical posting. I see that here and dann brushing it off (Dann was in said game) like he hasn’t seen the exact same style of Ali play has me side eyeing there.

And then even little things like:

implosion, Keyleth, Ydrasse, Dunnstral, Sakura Hana, and Freedom

Let's kill all o fthese people.
Well
let's not kill Sakura and let's not kill Dunnstral. Also Taly's name is supposed to be here but we're def not killing her.
and then we can add shirous name onto the list for shits and giggles

{implo, keyleth, ydra, shirou, freedom} ya let's kill all of these people

So the obviously alisae is eluding to fight over mercy. But including Dunn in the slots they don’t want to kill is such like a subconscious slip that I don’t think scum even thinks to do let alone purposefully try to use it for credit (which Ali never did or brought up again).

Because Toriel is going to flip anyway and isn’t even a choice. Scum would know that, it would be a central part of their pt discussions.

And whoever wants to call that nothing can but it’s not nothing to me.

[RCEnigma]

Lol sorry if I tanked your spare chances Ali.

It’s ok I’ll just spare the right people

I’ve got faith either way.

[RCEnigma]

taly please say its me pleaaaase say its me say im town say it so they kill me please

Ydrasse so town we should prolly spare her before Taly, tbh.


Am I doing it right?

Retweet.

[RCEnigma]

i didnt interpret that vibe from

rce

It was jokes.

[RCEnigma]

Town can spare and endgame in 2v2.

Assuming the win con is majority OR nothing can prevent this. Spare would be the prevent this part.

[RCEnigma]

Ok cool, so another point for Taly, not that it matters since she’s already as townread as it gets. Was the waffling back and forth on dunn, now that he’s flipped I can say it. Scum can just default to town since he’s getting flipped as toriel regardless. Scum would probably be in the slots playing towards Dunn early game. Especially once spare was the confirmed route. I think spare would have been a foregone conclusion in the scum pt though so probably even earlier than that.

[RCEnigma]

We're definitely not sparing you or RCE. Implosion idk, but probably not the best pick imo.

If you're town I suggest you picking other names

Personally I've started to like Keyleth more and she could potentially replace Freedom/You in my townblock...

Welp…good luck.

[RCEnigma]

I thought he was town.

[RCEnigma]

I’m gonna omgus kyouko

[RCEnigma]

Well, follow your thought then. Because if I’m scum there are two others. So who else is angling that way?

[RCEnigma]

Where is bingle pushing against Taly?

[RCEnigma]

Besides a pocket scumread on kyouko which he might not even have anymore, since it was loosely tied to Dunn being scum.

[RCEnigma]

Taly should never be spared he's a stupid bird

You can’t kill Taly 3 times in 1 game.

[RCEnigma]

I stand corrected then, keep on keepin on Ali.

[RCEnigma]

why do I have a mustache???

Alpha male energy.

[RCEnigma]

Aaaaand we’re back VOTE: Ali

[RCEnigma]

idk i just cannot get these two posts out of my head

Rent free

[RCEnigma]

im good with bingle/kyouko

whichever one doesn't get killed tomorrow

Dann might be town I’m also good with this duo.

[RCEnigma]

Sorry for the miserable game Ydrasse

[RCEnigma]

I feel like this game has been entirely undeserved success on my part, and we should keep that train going. I also feel like there are a bunch of people who would be scumclaiming by not being willing to vote me after their narratives the last few days, so this might out scum if it doesn't go through.

VOTE: Bingle

Well you in some part got town to swing on the Alisae vote so I say good job. VOTE: Bingle

[RCEnigma]

I remember saying this game that I would probably pass Ydrasse and shirou through after alisae. I’m all egg.

[RCEnigma]

Oh that reminds me I’m not really interested in arguing among each other who the towniest is out of who’s left. We sheep spared town and end. So if someone wants to just quote wall Dunn/Taly/alisaes dying reads we can go off that.

[RCEnigma]

Nvm I did it
the pool is just bingle/dann/Sakura/myself and town wins in whatever combination

Can’t kill us all.

[RCEnigma]

Can’t kill us all.

Can't kill anyone, I'm the game winning spare.

Fair point

[RCEnigma]

What are we doinggggggg.

[RCEnigma]

If bingle were scum the exact team would have to be bingle + me + Ydrasse… or he’d have been hammered.

[RCEnigma]

I don’t want to hear any arguments about posturing or angling for the future, scum NEED a scum flip today and there isn’t a way around that. You just flip your partner and try to figure out how to spin it later.

[RCEnigma]

So?

[RCEnigma]

I’m agreed I think shirou is scum. I just think they would have discussed quickhammers at some point in the last like week or so.

[RCEnigma]

If bingle were scum the exact team would have to be bingle + me + Ydrasse… or he’d have been hammered.

this is untrue for like 8 reasons lol

no one is getting away with quickhammering their scumbuddy today in this setup. Scum do, in fact, need to be thinking about tomorrow and not monolithically about today. Like this,

I don’t want to hear any arguments about posturing or angling for the future, scum NEED a scum flip today and there isn’t a way around that. You just flip your partner and try to figure out how to spin it later.

is just hogwash. Scum do NEED a scum flip today. They also NEED a scum flip tomorrow an exactly equal amount.

There is no downside for scum quickhammering if they get a townie on the wagon. Outed scum doesn’t matter if they aren’t in the spare pool. They weren’t getting spared anyway.

[RCEnigma]

Dann I’m fairly certain you’re town even if bingle were to flip scum today (I don’t think he will) I’d be willing to push you up tomorrow if we miss, and we just vote bingle today.

Worst case it looks like bingle!scum -> Sakura nk -> you and I live for next spare. I don’t mind being the one to step back.

[RCEnigma]

As it currently stands, I'm voting myself, Dann's voting himself and Bingle's voting himself while you're voting Bingle.
Literally you could vote any of us 3 and it'd be the same ammount of votes so that cant be it either.

Idk the vote count but if my vote hammers I’ll vote. Otherwise it doesn’t really matter where my vote is inside the spare pool.

[RCEnigma]

Idc. Idc if I’m coming off dickish even. Idc about anyone’s reads today, town or not — over Dunn/Taly/ and especially Alisaes.

What’s crazy to me is how insanely on the money alisae was with every single flip, trying to avoid the meuh wagon in favor of someone that still hasn’t flipped (likely scum), was persuaded into the freedom lim but I’ll take the blame for that. And they are still being….not discredited but discounted.

[RCEnigma]

So like even if my read isn’t that solid on bingle, the faith I have in Alisaes reads this game is enough for me to advocate bingle as the spare EVEN ABOVE MYSELF.

[RCEnigma]

I’ll vote in the pool of dann/Sakura on the strength of Dunn and Taly’s flips but Alisae hasn’t been proven wrong so there is zero reason not to vote Bingle as town.

[RCEnigma]

Bingle I think is a very underrated and good spare. Bingle was not on D1 or D2 wagon and he has been very much I think just doing his own thing guy seems townie.
RCE I think has a very villagery read on me. What makes his read villagery his his strength and how it stands out compared to his other reads.
I think Sakura has just been consistently villagery throughout teh game.
And I think Kyouko is villagery but nowhere are they as strong as the top 3.

Dannflor - I have him as a wolf but I kind of want to gut tr him and he did vote me
RCE - See above
Lazy Shirou - Never Spare
Bingle - See above
Sakura Hana - See above (tho ig Mandate could have set a wolf!Sakura to be spared now that I think about it but it doesn't change my overall read on her)
Ydrasse - Never Spare
implosion - eeeeeeh ig you can spare him but like if you look at my reads I'm starting to run out of people to tell you who a 3rd wolf is. he does just feel townie to me.
Kyouko - See above.

Ydrasse/Mandate is a wolf.
Start there.

I guess we see RCE's true colors now.
RCE your last few posts sound a lot like a scum that knows im a town winning spare and so cant vote me, if you're really following Alisae then you should know e townread me as well (sure with the caveat of maybe Mandate setting me up but e did also mention it doesnt change e's townread of me), moreover it feels like as scum, you're giving yourself an out after a Bingle scumflip to say you were just sheeping Alisae's reads and e turned out to be wrong on that one (And right now Bingle's really looking like a potential scumflip).
However... if you're scum then i don't need your vote, it just means that Yddra is town and Alisae was wrong and it's just a matter of time until Yddra and implosion spare me anyway. And if you're actually town then i WILL need your vote, so i beg you reconsider.

tl;dr: Alisae also townread me, it's not just a Dunn/Taly read, and the fact that you supposedly collected that info and are sheeping Alisae speaks volumes of your stubborness to vote for me.

You are in the pool of people I would spare BECAUSE alisae townread you in some capacity. The same way they townread Bingle in some capacity.

I am in a twilight zone.

[RCEnigma]

You’re being so weird about this.

[RCEnigma]

I said I’d hammer it but whatever VOTE: Sakura

[RCEnigma]

Wow we were all town the whole time? That’s a twist.

[RCEnigma]

ISIS VALIDATE US!!

[RCEnigma]

Yeah…my bad I let Sakura and shirou pressure me off ending the game.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah…my bad I let Sakura and shirou pressure me off ending the game.

how is it your bad that bingle quick hammered

what are you saying

Saying I let scum pull me off bingle, I don’t really blame bingle on the hammer either. I wanted the day over too.

[RCEnigma]

idk it’s gonna be kinda grueling and horrible if everyone just wants to self vote here lol

but i genuinely think i am the most findable as town right now and I don’t think I can bring myself to vote anyone else

Well we need a townie that can compromise. Dann do you believe that the bingle/Sakura dynamic was for some kind of long game?

[RCEnigma]

Wait actually.

[RCEnigma]

No

[RCEnigma]

Wait actually.

There are only 3 town left yeah? Like I want to believe dann and bingle can both be town. If Bingle is scum I don’t see the angle, for Sakura to talk Ydrasse out of a bingle vote to swing to a self started sakura wagon.

[RCEnigma]

Why did it get hard?

[RCEnigma]

Ok so,

Scum!bingle world: plans to angle bingle as the last spare after they get support from town initially (me I’m the dummy in this scenario) possibly dann too. Sakura pleads for the holdouts. Makes sense with an implo nk

Implo nk doesn’t really make sense if town has a stronger candidate for spare than scum has.

Am I going to talk myself into thinking the scum team is dann/bingle/Sakura? Probably not but it would be wild.

[RCEnigma]

shirou are you still scum reading me

Why shirou specifically?

[RCEnigma]

Well, consider Fmpov that shirou was the additional loud voice detracting from the counterwagon of scum (Sakura).

I’ll go back and reread yesterday at some point because it could have just been Sakura twisting my stance to pressure me into voting there but it felt like a tag team effort yesterday.

[RCEnigma]

also i think i dislike bingle’s rhetoric of “sakura disrailed my spare wagon” when said sakura wagon was… hammered very quickly by bingle meaning there was no way to like. get “back on track” on bingle. and now today the pressure of only
vote me, i am the obvious choice, so on. it makes me more hesitant to vote for bingle compared to yesterday.

That’s danns issue too, I think that’s a better way to frame it ig.

[RCEnigma]

Idk what to think about dann pinning the scum team to Sakura/myself/shirou because Sakura jumped to defend both of us then. But I also dunno if that’s a scum on scum kind of interaction.

It plays out with a large bit of foresight tbh.

[RCEnigma]

my mind is running around in circles right now but i kind of think the team is sakura/bingle/rce. i’m not really sure but looking at how sakura was treating people yesterday it feels as if she was a lot more diplomatic with myself and implosion and then by extension she was trying to walk back her push on dann to be nore… charismatic?

she only really engaged harshly with rce and bingle to a lesser degree. i think if that’s the team fighting to be competing spares is the best thing they can do? setting up the end game dichotomy between them, oh that was the wrong choice clearly it was me.

the issue with that though is … if bingle is town it was the only option for wolves lol. they have to contest or else lose so of course sakura has to try and tear both of them down. theyend up voting sakura anyways which makes it harder.

The only thing with this is why is the whole scumteam supporting alisae’s spare? Even if the argument is they can’t do anything then kyouko is the lesser of two evils.

But alisae does have 2 scum on wagon if you or shirou are town. But it’s hard for me to fathom both of you being town with that being said.

[RCEnigma]

This is a very convoluted way of sticking to Bingle with the potential of an excuse today "I was just sheeping Ali".

I think I was wrong to reconsider, Ydrasse *is* probably town and I think I was right on the money before. Scum is in Bingle/RCE/Dann, maybe someone in that trio is town too but I think it has at least 2 scum there assuming Sakura is in fact town.

Like for example, this was also the world that shirou was pushing before the flip. Sakura was also playing towards you Ydrasse in some capacity thought to flip the vote.

[RCEnigma]

Ydrasse/myself/ one of dann or bingle wouldn’t surprise me much.

[RCEnigma]

This is a very convoluted way of sticking to Bingle with the potential of an excuse today "I was just sheeping Ali".

I think I was wrong to reconsider, Ydrasse *is* probably town and I think I was right on the money before. Scum is in Bingle/RCE/Dann, maybe someone in that trio is town too but I think it has at least 2 scum there assuming Sakura is in fact town.

Like for example, this was also the world that shirou was pushing before the flip. Sakura was also playing towards you Ydrasse in some capacity thought to flip the vote.

Adding to this it kind of makes me think Sakura didn’t really expect for bingle to hammer there.

[RCEnigma]

There’s a part of me that understands I need to stick to bingle because I’m being singled out as scum by every other slot.

Scum doesn’t necessarily need my vote they just need A townies vote.

So I guess my counterpoint to you Ydrasse is that if you are town then shirous vote on you is mostly to get your vote.

[RCEnigma]

i’m utterly confused if shirou is wolf voting me. i don’t get it beyond “no one else will vote you but me” sort of thing that is supposed to translate into me trusting shirou and voting with him…?

Yeah ya beat me to it.

[RCEnigma]

i think sakura had already established a narrative that she couldn’t back down from wrt alisae and i’d have to look to see everyone else’s progressions more closely… i think there’s something to be said about bolstering alisae in that situation though when e is loudly pushing an incorrect read and validating that way. not a lot but it sticks out to me for obvious reasons.

Right it’s probably negligible in regards to sakura but I Sakura was the scum frontman so I don’t see the other two being as proactive.

Meaning the other two likely had the option to be passive to gauge town.

[RCEnigma]

Lmao I thought about it.

[RCEnigma]

Ughhh am I about to let alisae down?

[RCEnigma]

I’ll be a good boy.

[RCEnigma]

I lied, yolo VOTE: ydrasse

[RCEnigma]

If I lose this game I’m gonna feel like garbage but I’m laughing so hard rn

[RCEnigma]

Did I do a bad Ydrasse?

[RCEnigma]

Noooooo shot lmaooo

[RCEnigma]

Don’t troll me I wanna high five right now.

[RCEnigma]

My cheeks hurt

[RCEnigma]

Now I’m really interested what shirou was.

[RCEnigma]

Votecount 7.0

Dannflor

(0) -

he/him

RCEnigma

(0) -

Lazy Shirou

(0) -

He/him

Bingle

(0) -

Ydrasse

(0) -
She

Not Voting

- (5) Ydrasse, RCEnigma, Bingle, Lazy Shirou, Dannflor

Ping

[RCEnigma]

Uh oh

[RCEnigma]

Please be nice to me I’m fragile

[RCEnigma]

I’m just gonna believe we won till said otherwise.

[RCEnigma]

Why’s that? I don’t think shirou would get any support and they know that. They’re also in a weird spot they can’t really push dann as the spare so they would have to slow play it.

Don’t think anyone came into the day thinking I would be open to voting Ydrasse or even considering them as town.

[RCEnigma]

I’ll talk about what made me throw the vote down after isis posts flips.

[RCEnigma]

Also kind of ties into my Sakura vote as well.

[RCEnigma]

If I die there I think implo can put together that you are town on how the day played it yesterday.

If you die…idk I think they have a shot but I’d actually go for the spare in that case. I think I soften on implo before Ydrasse in that case but idk. Just on their stances around Sakura.

[RCEnigma]

It does paint him in a good light, implo/key/kyouko all wanted dann. Ydrasse brought it up not long ago as a strong factor in their favor.

[RCEnigma]

I just hope someone in the dead thread was following this emotional rollercoaster with us.

[RCEnigma]

The game is over and somebody is still lying zzz

[RCEnigma]

Ok

[RCEnigma]

Ok so,

Scum!bingle world: plans to angle bingle as the last spare after they get support from town initially (me I’m the dummy in this scenario) possibly dann too. Sakura pleads for the holdouts. Makes sense with an implo nk

Implo nk doesn’t really make sense if town has a stronger candidate for spare than scum has.

Am I going to talk myself into thinking the scum team is dann/bingle/Sakura? Probably not but it would be wild.

I talked myself into thinking that was the scumteam lol

[RCEnigma]

GG, you guys were insanely close to snatching this game.

[RCEnigma]

Ydrasse I need a hug, we did it! Shirou too

[RCEnigma]

It’s very possible I just never find implo as town and implo never finds me town if neither of us caught the nk.

[RCEnigma]

oh btw @isis I think I was disrespectful in a couple of my posts in my catchup, I was just shitposting, thanks for hosting
3398 was one of them and I can't find the other but I think there were 2

I was today years old when I learned that was a rule.

[RCEnigma]

Shirou probably still votes implo and I have to get to a point that I suspect the duo of bingle/dann.

Just being able to post back and forth with Ydrasse helped a lot.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah I’d imagine the idea of mercy wasn’t great for scum wim.

[RCEnigma]

Shirou being selfless with that vote was pretty huge.

Tbh a big reason I was willing to blitz it was thinking shirou was scum trying to scare town from throwing a vote down, same with the Sakura wagon.

[RCEnigma]

Fight would have been rough

[RCEnigma]

Ooo my vote either way probably makes the implo - shirou - Ydrasse triangle stronger.

[RCEnigma]

Also for those wondering my weird trajectory with Dann.
A town me would've townread Dann's posts so that's what i was going with, but Dann wanted to crossbus because it would give us a better chance at being spared later down the line.
Which is why you see my weird OMGUS vote on Dann after townreading him hard.

I've never had a team that does this kind of strategizing and so of course it would look unnatural, but somehow people still townread us, which was ???? to me.

The crossbus was good for obfuscation. Like I brought up dann linking you me and shirou, so there was some kind of precedent to look back and flip perspective. I thought you guys played really well the last couple day phases.