Toriel's Patience (end)

[implosion]

I'm glad Ali was town but that does not fix the problem of you all not sparing Kyouko, an obvious nightkill target, before sparing Alisae which had more suspicion on her

This seems like a deeply silly thing to complain about tbh. I don't think it bears on your alignment in particular. I guess you could complain that the kyouko nightkill gives less info but like, i think the fact that alisae got spared yesterday implies that alisae was at least in some sense more obvtown in the eyes of the people than kyouko was. Though of course I know (and you if town also know) that the alisae spare had at least one scum on it so etc. Frankly I think I'd have reservations about kyouko if she'd not been shot, probably.

[implosion]

As it currently stands, I'm voting myself, Dann's voting himself and Bingle's voting himself while you're voting Bingle.
Literally you could vote any of us 3 and it'd be the same ammount of votes so that cant be it either.

Idk the vote count but if my vote hammers I’ll vote. Otherwise it doesn’t really matter where my vote is inside the spare pool.

I feel like RCE is just openly scum here

like i feel like the very last instinct i have as town here is to throw my hands up in the air and say "any of these x people are fine to vote". I want to win today. Or at least, I want to make absolutely certain that we're in as good a position as possible going into tomorrow if we don't. I genuinely don't understand how anyone can feel good about voting someone else

this quickly

today in this setup. Scum by sheer numbers have a ton of thread control right now. Why are we trying to end the day fast? Why are we not trying to optimize the best possible spare that gives us the best odds of winning? It just baffles me.

[implosion]

I was thinking that if Dann was town, you had to be scum, but if you were scum you wouldn't be voting for me, i... i dont even have words right now.

I think the meme about DANNWOLF is real in this game!

Like, look at the way he opened the day today. Does that look like a townie very close to achieving their wincon or a wolf trying to step up their game to not lose?

Dann is scum and I've many doubts about Bingle now that he pushed him strongly

I mean i understand where this is coming from but i am town and i have felt the need to step up my game today because today is the hardest day lol

we are close to achieving our win condition but this is by definition the hardest part.

[implosion]

let me be clear: if i was wolf i would not spit on the efforts of mandate and roll over and die. i would enter into this game with a wonderful body of work and keep it going.

that everyone somehow, psychically, decided that i was a wolf for reasons i still don't understand - town players, mind you, not entirely wolves trying to discredit - and doubt will be explained beyond "dunno mandate has good reads usually didn't here so kill" as previously posted is miserable. i don't have the will to try and sway against loud town players who have decided i am mafia for what i feel are obscure reasons. it's not fun. i don't care, let alone my actual posts being minimal alongside all of this.

my viewpoint of this day is that everyone is going to suggest me as a partner on their scumteams. it's easy for town and easy for mafia. i'm just accepting it because screaming into the void makes me want to cry and i don't like crying over mafia anymore, so i won't.

I get where you're coming from (whatever your alignment is, really). I think it's especially true when there's players like Alisae who tend to get into a pattern of imbuing their reads with a sense of bravado at a certain point where they're not necessarily like, directly being mean, but they're acting so overconfident in what they're saying that it just feels entirely not worth engaging with any of it.

For what it's worth, I have implicitly called you town today (I said my pet scumteam was bingle/rce/shirou earlier). Obviously shirou's vote is evidence against that pet theory (though for reasons I've already said I don't think it disproves it out of hand, but it is definitely evidence). The townteam being you/me/shirou/sakura is certainly a possibility though it's one I'd want to think a lot more about before calling it in any way likely.

I also personally suspect BoP isn't a good way to read Mandate anyway... i have seen mandate have some trash reads before. I don't even know if mandate's reads were that bad in this game tbh, i don't remember a lot of them other than me and sakura being town and like, meuh and maybe alisae as scum.

[implosion]

Alright. The chief important thing to do right now is clearly towncase Sakura. This is for my own benefit and not just for others'. Sakura is a peculiar slot right now - she's being voted by one other person, i've indicated her as my likely top choice, RCE has indicated her as "in the spare pool" and that they'd hammer anyone in the spare pool, and I don't think dann or ydrasse have called her scum (and bingle hasn't given any reads so). Essentially, no one seems to be really making a concerted effort to stop a sakura wagon; part of the reason for this could be that Shirou's vote is the first actual momentum it's gotten and that was last page so people haven't had a chance to but it is necessary, if we are sparing sakura, to at least have some kind of vision for why this is the case.

Anyway. With that disclaimer aside. Reasons for Sakura town in non-chronological order.

1) Yesterday. Alisae opens the day by voting kyouko. Sakura then immediately votes Alisae, crucially citing the townslip. There are two points I want to make here. Point one, is that voting Alisae here is more or less conceding the day if Sakura is scum. Bingle claiming that his vote is what sealed yesterday is, imo, a misreading of the day. Scum have almost no way in at this point, four posts in to the day. kyouko looks like a pretty solid spare choice, with pretty broad consensus, iirc. And Sakura shows up and proposes we spare a different townie. If scum come in and propose no, we should pick some third person, they now need to justify that person over two other people and they're gonna look real bad if they manage to spare that person and they flip scum. Sure, some scum could self-advocate but that's pretty unlikely to work, people have been clear enough with their reads and I think there's a certain terror scum probably feel about self-advocating in the gamestate yesterday because simply put, in the gamestate yesterday scum are under more pressure than town, they're more likely to feel the need to do something like that whereas at 3:6 there's still plenty of town alive and it feels (or at least to me it felt) like we had pretty solid odds of hitting town without any need to self-advocate.

The reason I feel this is a really strong tell is that if I put myself or like, a generic scum player in the shoes of Sakura at the start of that day, there's a good chance scum quite want to get a win yesterday, and sakura making this vote both adds a new town candidate to the sparing pool for yesterday and gives up 1/3 of scum's votes that could help get scum spared because it's going to be very hard for Sakura to convincingly vote hop because, point two: the use of the townslip to justify the vote. I already mentioned that I think scum probably on average avoid using something like a townslip to justify a vote, and that Sakura is basically bringing up this old point that people were using to townread Alisae that popular sentiment (iirc) had sort of soured on. I think that's something scum have little incentive to do. But beyond that, using the townslip is super committal - she's probably not gonna get away with saying she changed her mind about the townslip, and well, a townslip is a townslip if it's real.

2) Ari and Mandate's reads on Sakura. I sort of think these reads are unlikely to have come from scum->scum, I think if Ari and/or Mandate were scum then they essentially TMI'd Sakura as town. And well, pure numbers game, if Ari and Mandate were both town then that doesn't leave a lot of room for the scumteam (it is possible of course etc but i just have such a hard time seeing RCE as town in this game >_>)

Iirc, Sakura d1 felt consistently like when she popped in, her views felt like they were townie and coming from actual thought, and that as Ari said she had idc energy. She felt very unagenda'd. Kind of feels like someone who is not in a scum PT discussing how they want the game to go. As Alisae put it, she was consistently townie.

1327 is an argument I made for her on d1 and I still think the posts I quote there are really town

there are a lot of posts like this one that I feel are coming from a real place. And this one like gosh i think that's a townie post.

I'm sure i could find more posts if i go into her iso but those are ones from ctrl+f'ing her name in my iso and yeah, i feel like there's a pretty strong case to be made off just those.

[RCEnigma]

Idc. Idc if I’m coming off dickish even. Idc about anyone’s reads today, town or not — over Dunn/Taly/ and especially Alisaes.

What’s crazy to me is how insanely on the money alisae was with every single flip, trying to avoid the meuh wagon in favor of someone that still hasn’t flipped (likely scum), was persuaded into the freedom lim but I’ll take the blame for that. And they are still being….not discredited but discounted.

[RCEnigma]

So like even if my read isn’t that solid on bingle, the faith I have in Alisaes reads this game is enough for me to advocate bingle as the spare EVEN ABOVE MYSELF.

[RCEnigma]

I’ll vote in the pool of dann/Sakura on the strength of Dunn and Taly’s flips but Alisae hasn’t been proven wrong so there is zero reason not to vote Bingle as town.

[Sakura Hana]

Bingle I think is a very underrated and good spare. Bingle was not on D1 or D2 wagon and he has been very much I think just doing his own thing guy seems townie.
RCE I think has a very villagery read on me. What makes his read villagery his his strength and how it stands out compared to his other reads.
I think Sakura has just been consistently villagery throughout teh game.
And I think Kyouko is villagery but nowhere are they as strong as the top 3.

Dannflor - I have him as a wolf but I kind of want to gut tr him and he did vote me
RCE - See above
Lazy Shirou - Never Spare
Bingle - See above
Sakura Hana - See above (tho ig Mandate could have set a wolf!Sakura to be spared now that I think about it but it doesn't change my overall read on her)
Ydrasse - Never Spare
implosion - eeeeeeh ig you can spare him but like if you look at my reads I'm starting to run out of people to tell you who a 3rd wolf is. he does just feel townie to me.
Kyouko - See above.

Ydrasse/Mandate is a wolf.
Start there.

I guess we see RCE's true colors now.
RCE your last few posts sound a lot like a scum that knows im a town winning spare and so cant vote me, if you're really following Alisae then you should know e townread me as well (sure with the caveat of maybe Mandate setting me up but e did also mention it doesnt change e's townread of me), moreover it feels like as scum, you're giving yourself an out after a Bingle scumflip to say you were just sheeping Alisae's reads and e turned out to be wrong on that one (And right now Bingle's really looking like a potential scumflip).
However... if you're scum then i don't need your vote, it just means that Yddra is town and Alisae was wrong and it's just a matter of time until Yddra and implosion spare me anyway. And if you're actually town then i WILL need your vote, so i beg you reconsider.

tl;dr: Alisae also townread me, it's not just a Dunn/Taly read, and the fact that you supposedly collected that info and are sheeping Alisae speaks volumes of your stubborness to vote for me.

[Lazy Shirou]

Sakura/kyouko/rce is pretty safe to spare in

Alisae did have Sakura as one of the best spares.

If you're sheeping Alisae there's no reason you must vote Bingle over Sakura.

[Lazy Shirou]

This is a very convoluted way of sticking to Bingle with the potential of an excuse today "I was just sheeping Ali".

I think I was wrong to reconsider, Ydrasse *is* probably town and I think I was right on the money before. Scum is in Bingle/RCE/Dann, maybe someone in that trio is town too but I think it has at least 2 scum there assuming Sakura is in fact town.

[Lazy Shirou]

If Sakura is scum though I guess I may be the reason we could lose the game

but I know I'm town so I also know that the most avid supporter for Sakura today is a townie versus people I've always suspected supporting Bingle.

/shrug

[Lazy Shirou]

If I'm wrong on Sakura today I'll shut up tomorrow and hammer whatever conclusion consensus reaches.

Consider that my way of apologizing if I'm wrong today.

But...

All the posts so far makes me feel like my scum pool was definitely right before and Alisae was just the pocketed town in [Alisae/RCE] as I had talked previously.

[RCEnigma]

Bingle I think is a very underrated and good spare. Bingle was not on D1 or D2 wagon and he has been very much I think just doing his own thing guy seems townie.
RCE I think has a very villagery read on me. What makes his read villagery his his strength and how it stands out compared to his other reads.
I think Sakura has just been consistently villagery throughout teh game.
And I think Kyouko is villagery but nowhere are they as strong as the top 3.

Dannflor - I have him as a wolf but I kind of want to gut tr him and he did vote me
RCE - See above
Lazy Shirou - Never Spare
Bingle - See above
Sakura Hana - See above (tho ig Mandate could have set a wolf!Sakura to be spared now that I think about it but it doesn't change my overall read on her)
Ydrasse - Never Spare
implosion - eeeeeeh ig you can spare him but like if you look at my reads I'm starting to run out of people to tell you who a 3rd wolf is. he does just feel townie to me.
Kyouko - See above.

Ydrasse/Mandate is a wolf.
Start there.

I guess we see RCE's true colors now.
RCE your last few posts sound a lot like a scum that knows im a town winning spare and so cant vote me, if you're really following Alisae then you should know e townread me as well (sure with the caveat of maybe Mandate setting me up but e did also mention it doesnt change e's townread of me), moreover it feels like as scum, you're giving yourself an out after a Bingle scumflip to say you were just sheeping Alisae's reads and e turned out to be wrong on that one (And right now Bingle's really looking like a potential scumflip).
However... if you're scum then i don't need your vote, it just means that Yddra is town and Alisae was wrong and it's just a matter of time until Yddra and implosion spare me anyway. And if you're actually town then i WILL need your vote, so i beg you reconsider.

tl;dr: Alisae also townread me, it's not just a Dunn/Taly read, and the fact that you supposedly collected that info and are sheeping Alisae speaks volumes of your stubborness to vote for me.

You are in the pool of people I would spare BECAUSE alisae townread you in some capacity. The same way they townread Bingle in some capacity.

I am in a twilight zone.

[RCEnigma]

You’re being so weird about this.

[RCEnigma]

I said I’d hammer it but whatever VOTE: Sakura

[Bingle]

I see all of these reasons to scumread RCE and they would make sense, but the thing is: I’m town. If RCE is scum here then his motivation for pushing me has to be to push me badly and make my spare impossible, which I guess might be possible? But still thought that’s some ballsy ass play.

[Bingle]

fashion is always the real endgame to me!

You think fashion’s your friend? My friend, fashion is danger.

[Bingle]

If you are town and aren't chosen today, it won't

just

be because scum drove the spare away from you - it'll be because a townie either helped drive the spare away from you, or listened to scum who were doing so.

See… I like and hate this post in equal parts, tbh. It has a lot of potential as a post trying to get me to consider the game from a new angle and there isn’t a ton of scum motivation in implo trying to convince me to convince implo I’m town better, but there’s also this particular part which makes me hesitant on Sakura.

Like… this looks like implo is trying to angle to be forgiven for driving the spare away from me after I flip town tonight. And let’s face it, if we mis spare I almost certainly don’t live to see tomorrow.

[Bingle]

I already mentioned that I think scum probably on average avoid using something like a townslip to justify a vote, and that Sakura is basically bringing up this old point that people were using to townread Alisae that popular sentiment (iirc) had sort of soured on. I think that's something scum have little incentive to do. But beyond that, using the townslip is super committal - she's probably not gonna get away with saying she changed her mind about the townslip, and well, a townslip is a townslip if it's real.

I don’t get this argument at all. “Sakura using an argument people had already dismissed” seems like it would be more likely to be scum not really trying to get the spare than less, tbh. And of course SakuraScum could pivot if there wasn’t support for an alisae spare? Like, alisae is town and implo is town aren’t mutually exclusive stances she could have taken. If there was no traction on the alisae wagon she could definitely have moved. And I provided the traction on that wagon.

[Bingle]

Actually, if this is Sakura scum I think it just has to be implo/Shirou/Sakura, right?

Like... there's no way we don't win if they don't derail this off of me and that's what they've been trying to do all day?

Okay.

If Sakura scum, spare RCE. There's a small chance that Shirou is just wrong and implo was actually trying to get a Dann spare.

VOTE: Sakura

No guts, no glory.

[Bingle]

Why isn't furiously refreshing the thread telling me if I'm right or wrong?

[Bingle]

Bingle I think is a very underrated and good spare. Bingle was not on D1 or D2 wagon and he has been very much I think just doing his own thing guy seems townie.
RCE I think has a very villagery read on me. What makes his read villagery his his strength and how it stands out compared to his other reads.
I think Sakura has just been consistently villagery throughout teh game.
And I think Kyouko is villagery but nowhere are they as strong as the top 3.

Dannflor - I have him as a wolf but I kind of want to gut tr him and he did vote me
RCE - See above
Lazy Shirou - Never Spare
Bingle - See above
Sakura Hana - See above (tho ig Mandate could have set a wolf!Sakura to be spared now that I think about it but it doesn't change my overall read on her)
Ydrasse - Never Spare
implosion - eeeeeeh ig you can spare him but like if you look at my reads I'm starting to run out of people to tell you who a 3rd wolf is. he does just feel townie to me.
Kyouko - See above.

Ydrasse/Mandate is a wolf.
Start there.

I guess we see RCE's true colors now.
RCE your last few posts sound a lot like a scum that knows im a town winning spare and so cant vote me, if you're really following Alisae then you should know e townread me as well (sure with the caveat of maybe Mandate setting me up but e did also mention it doesnt change e's townread of me), moreover it feels like as scum, you're giving yourself an out after a Bingle scumflip to say you were just sheeping Alisae's reads and e turned out to be wrong on that one (And right now Bingle's really looking like a potential scumflip).
However... if you're scum then i don't need your vote, it just means that Yddra is town and Alisae was wrong and it's just a matter of time until Yddra and implosion spare me anyway. And if you're actually town then i WILL need your vote, so i beg you reconsider.

tl;dr: Alisae also townread me, it's not just a Dunn/Taly read, and the fact that you supposedly collected that info and are sheeping Alisae speaks volumes of your stubborness to vote for me.

Were you town?

[Bingle]

Toriel's Patience

An undertale-themed open game, by Isis

Were I snowed?

[Bingle]

Hello?