NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

pieguyn · Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:57 pm

In post 4268, zMuffinMan wrote:- i liked his entrance to the game. everything about it, from the tone of his initial posts, to the way he was forming reads

so you like how he misrepped me by saying that I was doing 0 scumhunting and then made a weird push on me? and idk wht the hell is up with his read on me

In post 4268, zMuffinMan wrote:i kinda agree with him that the stuffed crust wagon is difficult to analyse because of the way it happened, so i don't have a problem with the fact he hasn't put much effort into analysing it

here's the problem. even if it's difficult to analyze, Generic tried to analyze it. so I'd expect him to be all over said analysis, but instead he found it to be weird? what the fuck 0.0

this is what happened
1. deadline wagon on SC that has all of his scumreads on it
2. he's interested in analyzing the information from the lynch as shown by his comments re: SSK
3. generic goes and tries to analyze the wagon, that is, information from the lynch
4. he pokes at generic for doing that

tell me what thought process would take a wagon with all his scumreads on it, and noticing someone else analyzing said wagon, and give out the conclusion that the person ANALYZING said wagon is weird 0.0

there's more to analyze than just that one wagon too, there was another wagon on him earlier in the day and a shitton of discussion. basically what BRO said

pieguyn · Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:58 pm

In post 4298, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4257, pieguyn wrote:looking back on it, why was my reaction one of the most boringest reactions in the world?
Because I had the same exact read as before I pushed you - which is boring because it wasted my time and really didn't effect my read at all.

nope you were townreading me earlier

In post 2621, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Pie wtf.

I thought you were actually town.

How do you go back to making me think you're scum in a span of 2 pages.

where'd this come from?

In post 4300, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4257, pieguyn wrote:there was plenty of discussion about SC so I'd imagine you should be going back and looking at his wagon and people's stances on him etc.
You want me to analyze a wagon that formed in a half a day for who's scum on it? Are you serious? I'm sorry for not being that good?

wow this is a blatant misrep

it's not just about the wagon. I said IN THAT SAME POST there was other information, e.g. people's stances on him, and then there was another wagon on him earlier D1, and so on. even if you found the wagon hard to analyze I'd expect you to at least have expressed that but you didn't even talk about said wagon at all. it makes me think you're scum BS'ing your stances and forgot all about the wagon

In post 4301, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4257, pieguyn wrote:and instead you ATTACK THE GUY WHO'S SCRUTINIZING HOW YOUR NULL READ HAMMERED?
I "attack". If you think that's me "attacking" then are you in for a surprise. That was me pointing at something that irked me and found silly.

how is that even relevant to anything?

it doesn't change the fact that you're supposedly interested in looking at the information from the lynch. but then when Generic tried to do that exact same thing, you apparently found it to be silly. either way, your thought process is contradictory as fuck

also answer my point about OMGUS plz

pieguyn · Tue Dec 31, 2013 4:18 pm

In post 4289, Cephrir wrote:I have a slight dislike for the overall coldness even though it's probably a playstyle issue; breaking from it was annoying as well.

the problem is that you're saying it's weird no matter what kind of post I make. if I make a logical post, it's too cold. if I make an emotional post it's weird bc I'm breaking from my logical style. you set up this false dichotomy (logical vs emotional) and then no matter which one I pick you paint it as scummy. if you're town this is confbiased as fuck and not to mention I know you said you try to avoid this when I was questioning you on D1. if you're scum it gives you an easy way to throw suspicion at me

also, 170+ pages in and one of your main scumreads is probably a playstyle issue? srsly

pieguyn · Tue Dec 31, 2013 4:19 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:not really. i think we've already talked about this at some point

do you disagree that's what he did or do you not like it?

zMuffinMan wrote:btw i don't know why you and bro are mentioning this as important and then not really doing any analysis on it yourselves

it's not important to me atm. but I'd expect Arthur to have been more interested in it 0.0

pieguyn · Wed Jan 01, 2014 8:25 pm

@Norlkaz:

why am I scum? also, who is scum on the assumption that I'm town?

you're aware that by forming a scumteam based entirely off me everything gets fked up if I'm town right? mb it's just me but that way of forming reads often leads to confbias and large potential for error if your initial assumptions (me-scum) are wrong. why would you take that kind of approach in forming your reads? like I can't see why you'd do that given how prone to error it is 0.0

pieguyn · Wed Jan 01, 2014 8:27 pm

@Arthur:

wow nice dodge. answer my points plz

pieguyn · Wed Jan 01, 2014 8:36 pm

In post 4383, MC Maraca wrote:HAPPY NEW YEARS EVERYONE

LETS START 2014 WITH A SCUM LYNCH, WHO'S WITH ME

VOTE: desperado

why desp?

In post 4371, zMuffinMan wrote:your read progression on me is still one of the things i don't like about you because i don't understand how you went from initially thinking i'm town to thinking i'm scum (or at least a worthwhile vote) to changing your mind about me at some point between the end of D1 and that reads list you recently gave to now thinking i'm scum again (or at least that i've earned "scum points"?). it'd be nice if you actually explained what was going on with this.

did you notice he did that with me too? I started off as null, then apparently I got moved to town for no reason (supposedly it wasn't bc of his push on me) and then he reversed said read and it seems like he was just following the general impression of people's reads on me. then when I asked him why I got moved to town he ignored my question

pieguyn · Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:42 am

In post 4393, zMuffinMan wrote:not really. i must admit paying attention to sad's read progression on you wasn't high on my list of priorities this game (shocking, i know). but i'll take your word for it. when did you ask him about it?

4339
and looking back on it, SAD's initial read on me was scum, not null. so apparently his read on me went scum -> town -> scum and there was no explanation for any of it besides his initial scumread on me. it feels like his read of me throughout the game was just derived from the general impression of me at that time

In post 4402, geists wrote:But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

I'm sure you've noticed, but this game has done a really good job of making me go insane. plus I was getting paranoid of you despite the fact I was sure you were town before and it wasn't even the good kind of paranoia that's based off of smth reasonable it was the evil kind where you just feel completely scared and frozen and lose all grip on logic and sanity making me go even more insane. so if it feels fake it's probably bc of that > <

for now I'm really sure of GIF town. idk about Nero but there's smth I noticed about the two scumgames of GIF's I've seen that I didn't see in his one towngame I've seen. I haven't had a chance to apply it yet but I'm not seeing it here. he's also put in a noticeable amount of effort on D1 towards scumhunting and he was way more invested in this game than usual. do you think that's smth that's more likely to come from scum GIF?

also I disagree with the idea that GIF is scum bc he "misread" SC. I'd expect Nati of all people to know that bc of how he misread SSK in AA: MFA 0.0

actually I realized smth about Casso. how do you like the chance Casso is deliberately focusing on trying to fool you as scum? I'm wondering bc zmuffin and him were on a team in marketplace and zmuffin said he did this earlier. when I pushed on him in that game (and I was one of the only ones doing that) he basically redirected me to your metadive on him and made up this whole story about that game v. imperishable night and then he wasn't really suspected again at all 0.0 so it seems very possible nacho noticed this in that game and then tried to do the same thing in this game

pieguyn · Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:43 am

@F-16:

can you explain which of SAD's posts are giving you townvibes?

bc I just now connected whose lynch SAD was opposed to with SSK's probably scum role, and I think everything makes sense given a SAD + SSK scumteam. SAD was apparently opposed to SSK's lynch bc of the "lack of information". however, then he went and forgot all about getting information from lynches when SC got lynched and he took no interest in looking through the discussion, stances, and wagons on SC on D1 till after I brought it up, and instead immediately contradicted that thought process by saying it was weird how Generic was doing that same thing. when pressured about it he just dodged all my questions and/or deflected

however, if they both are scum, then I deduce that his primary motivation was to try to switch the deadline wagon onto someone else, and so he had to fabricate a reason for not wanting to lynch SSK. thus, his apparent cogdis was a result of the fact that he doesn't actually give a flying fuck about the information gained from a lynch, and was just BS'ing when he said he did. it also makes sense how he dodged me when I asked him about this, when this was my major point against him

pieguyn · Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:56 pm

hey F-16 talk to me about this

In post 4408, pieguyn wrote:
@F-16:
can you explain which of SAD's posts are giving you townvibes?

bc I just now connected whose lynch SAD was opposed to with SSK's probably scum role, and I think everything makes sense given a SAD + SSK scumteam. SAD was apparently opposed to SSK's lynch bc of the "lack of information". however, then he went and forgot all about getting information from lynches when SC got lynched and he took no interest in looking through the discussion, stances, and wagons on SC on D1 till after I brought it up, and instead immediately contradicted that thought process by saying it was weird how Generic was doing that same thing. when pressured about it he just dodged all my questions and/or deflected

however, if they both are scum, then I deduce that his primary motivation was to try to switch the deadline wagon onto someone else, and so he had to fabricate a reason for not wanting to lynch SSK. thus, his apparent cogdis was a result of the fact that he doesn't actually give a flying fuck about the information gained from a lynch, and was just BS'ing when he said he did. it also makes sense how he dodged me when I asked him about this, when this was my major point against him

pieguyn · Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:57 pm

SER ARTHUR DAYNE

I see you ignoring me. quit it and answer my questions already
4399

pieguyn · Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:58 pm

woops
* 4339

pieguyn · Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:12 pm

In post 4530, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:No I wasn't? I first scumread you, tried to reaction-test you, it didn't change my mind, then I thought you were town after a while, then I returned to thinking you were scum after some horrible posting.

In post 4530, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:This thing called the brain? You might recognize it, it's this organ most humans have that servers as the center of the nervous system.

explain why your read changed to a townread, then back to a scumread, then back to a townread again? I'd also love if you could walk me through your read on zmuffin plz

also, your initial push on me was just a reaction test? I've seen scum hide behind that excuse too many fking times. it feels like you know your push on me was bad and are trying to distance from it

In post 4530, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:No it's not? But try again?

sry for confusion, "misrep" is prob wrong. strawman or dodge is prob better. I was mentioning information, including final lynch wagon, interactions, etc. and then you only explained why you didn't analyze the final lynch wagon, without regard to other info

In post 4530, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:See 4303.

that'd be fine, but the problem is this came after I brought up how there was a bunch of info from the SC lynch 0.0 so for all I know you could be scum faking

In post 4530, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:And this is?

you accused me of having a "generic OMGUS" and then did the same thing yourself. a bunch of people jumped on you and you questioned if it was possible the whole scumteam jumped on you at once

pieguyn · Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:13 pm

In post 4562, DOMO wrote:Sudden push to end this day suggests we're onto something with casso. We get so much from his lynch now. If he flips scum, especially strong PR scum, then this push to kill of a claimed doc is scummy as hell, regardless of SSK's actual alignment.

this

In post 4565, Generic wrote:He is a claimed doc that didn't die in the night... Only me and koreanBBQ pushed this to my knowledge so why would scum leave a town doc alive and NOT toss the suspicion about? Makes no sense and several scum suspects of others actually defended him.

this

In post 4598, Cephrir wrote:Why not a jailkeeper or bodyguard, something that can coexist with a doc and wouldn't *need* to cc?

that
also ugh I'm starting to question my scumread on you. this is exactly the kind of thing I'd expect you to think about considering you modded FEA gthat had both a jailkeeper and a doctor. I'm a bit surprised nero didn't catch it considering he was JK in that game but oh well. his attitude about duplicate roles seems like the same thing tho bc I remember him doing that in that game too

I don't necessarily wanna lynch SSK today. I could totally see SSK being scum and the scumteam redirecting attention to SSK-scum bc SSK is practically dead anyway. in fact I think Varsoon mentioned smth about him doing this sometime on D1. I'm ok with an SSK lynch but we need to explore other options. still prefer an SAD lynch. I literally have no idea about Casso anymore so I'm also fine with lynching him

pieguyn · Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:19 pm

SSK is almost certainly scum bc setup. there's a gunsmith and a vigilante so it makes sense to put a scumdoc to counter both of them

I'd be very ok with an SSK lynch but we shouldn't rush it 0.0

pieguyn · Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:45 pm

I was referring to how there was both a doc and a JK in that game and how you didn't point out this exact possibility. however, it's probably not very likely you'd point that exact thing out, and my point was your attitude is the same from there to here despite this. sry if I misrepped you > <

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:00 pm

I stand prodded
catching up now

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:44 pm

In post 4756, DOMO wrote:Here he says that nat is reactive and geists shouldn't be trusted as town leader, even though ffery is the main head and ffery is a very good town leader.

Geists asks ssk who he protected, he then claims geists because they are an asset when town.

This is so contradictory that I can't help feel that it must be deliberate. It took over 20 minutes for him to post this reply, so plenty enough time to consider how to respond.

This looks to me fake as fuck. I think it looks bad for geists if SSK and casso flips scum. It looks like a deliberate attempt to sacrifice SSK to save casso. That's how it looks to me.

^ this is a great point and I keep thinking about the possibility that scumteam-with-casso is bussing SSK to save casso. however, I don't think ffery is scum. I think it's just flat out "hey I'm going to lead a lynch on scum so people stop being paranoid of me". also I doubt scum thinks they need a scumdoc atm anyway bc the vig is dead and there's probably no SK bc only 1 kill. so it makes sense if SSK was lying and/or setting up for a bus. yeah the vig was alive on D1 but at that point the actions make the most sense in terms of "hey I'm going to lead a lynch on scum so people stop being paranoid of me" bc of how half assed that lynch really was. the sakura deadline wagon and all the chaos it caused sets up p well for this

In post 4777, geists wrote:For what it's worth, I don't actually think SSK is going to flip scumdoc. The more I think about it, he likely was just fishing for a counterclaim or doing an emergency-style "get-me-through-the-night" claim.

another good point. the way I'm seeing it right now, SSK is either scumdoc or he just flat out fakeclaimed doc on his way down and there's no town doc in this setup. if it's the latter everything falls into place especially bc of how he's just given up

In post 4803, KoreanBBQ wrote:Mostly 'cause I think there are some really good scum candidates out there in Norl, Cephir and maybe Muffin. With outside chances of Bro and Pie.

talk to me about these scumreads

bc I'm thinking zmuffin town here although it's p much gut. same with BRO. and I can't get a read on norl at all > <

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:45 pm

@SER ARTHUR DAYNE:

you ignoring me TWICE is noted. I'll even link for your convenience 4615

@zmuffin:

where are you currently at with SAD?

In post 4831, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I'm not "distracting you", I'm shutting down your case on me because it gets any farther.
Stand behind your case and defend it; stop trying to pick at how I'm defending myself and instead try sorting me.

oh god this is bad. I don't even know why but this first line feels fkin evil. probably just gut but w/e. and as for the second line, what do you think he's been doing for the last 10 pages? it seems like discrediting bc you're trying to imply he hasn't actually sorted you and he very clearly did. plus he's practically conftown so I don't get why you'd have reservations about him "not sorting" you

In post 4843, Cephrir wrote:I am suddenly getting paranoid about SSK being town (and Nacho still being town) in part because Domo is making a little sense but also because Norlkaz is (surprisingly?) making some sense. I'm not sure that I want to do this anymore. Someone please talk me back into it.

what the fuck
you think he's making some sense although you agree his case is p much entirely fakeable? explain plz

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:50 pm

In post 4841, geists wrote:I think Sakura is scum on the wagon.

explain

also if she's scum how do yo uthink that fits in with the whole casso/SSK theories floating around?

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:58 pm

I have no idea on Cephrir

I was scumreading him before but his recent posts have made me feel a bit better bc he's thinking about the right things and it seems like he's giving good analysis. but people's stances in this whole casso thing will be really important especially if one of them flips scum and I don't know what the fuck is up with his analysis of norl's case. and I know he's a really good scum player so I don't wanna write him off as town just for "good analysis". and then the other thing is if casso flips scum then there was that whole associative between those two on D1 although idk how reliable it is. so I'm not really working him out atm. gun to the head probably scum but it may change drastically depending on how the next few days play out 0.0

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:40 pm

In post 4851, Cephrir wrote:Nacho's perspective on SSK's claimed actions makes sense. What scumteam coaches him to claim he didn't protect the masons?

good point but there's a possibility they might not be coaching him and he came up with that on his own

also I was referring to Norlkaz. you claim he makes sense but agree a lot of his points are fakeable. though looking back I think I misread your post and you were saying that the unfakeable point makes sense. is that correct?

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 9:41 pm

In post 4866, Generic wrote:Oh, and koreanBBQ as strong town?

Curveballs are one thing, I can't understand the mindfuck you are pulling with that one though.

I also have BBQ as strong town 0.0
what's giving you reservations about him?

pieguyn · Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:52 pm

sry for confusion, I'm fine with a casso lynch. I still prefer SAD but if not I'd be very ok with casso

I just wanna know if I'm missing smth re: BBQ. GIF has like never been this town ever and his effort level in this game has been way higher than what I'm used to from him, and Nero feels town bc there were some questions he asked and points he made I really liked, although that's kind of gut

thoughts on SAD?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:10 pm

In post 4912, Bert wrote:this is a good point

ftr I'm not the first one who said this

pieguyn · Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:20 pm

In post 4889, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Pieguyn, can you show me one occurrence of any scum player ever telling another one to deliberately contradict themselves in order to push the wagon through?

nope. if both you and SSK are scum then SSK prob came up with it himself

In post 4890, Casso the King of Seals wrote:He's been creating a theory where I coach SSK into intentionally acting scummy in order to take the heat off me (instead of reiterating the original push on him) and his entire case on me is based on that and how more people aren't currently voting me. And then when I point out that the basis of his case (scum aren't jumping on Nacho, thus Nacho is scum) is wrong, he accuses me of not scumhunting and doesn't actually address anything that I brought forward.

afaik he had more on you than this. iirc he did before and he certainly does now. someone tell me if I'm wrong plz

also, explain your zmuffin read? I don't get it. looking through your ISO I remember stuff like this

In post 4394, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I measured to the 26th. Site downtime hasn't affected anyone else incredibly significantly, so I didn't think that it affected you that horribly. I think the difference is still important even when considering holidays.

but now it say his excuses for apathy are valid, and then also say it's "not what you'd expect from town muffin", when said apathy was iirc p much the whole reason for this. explain why the flip flop plz. and if that's not it then what other reservations are you having about him?

pieguyn · Wed Jan 08, 2014 6:32 am

fwiw if Casso is town then SAD is scum

also, if Tammy is good at reading casso that might explain the tammy kill 0.0

pieguyn · Wed Jan 08, 2014 10:32 am

I read the "slip" as "we all benefit from her death on the assumption we're scum", so not really a slip

either way, I'm fine with this, although I still prefer SAD. but it's mostly bc of a tinfoil hat theory I'm working on so I'll join if need be

pieguyn · Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:49 am

In post 5046, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 5032, pieguyn wrote:I read the "slip" as "we all benefit from her death on the assumption we're scum", so not really a slip

either way, I'm fine with this, although I still prefer SAD. but it's mostly bc of a tinfoil hat theory I'm working on so I'll join if need be
Have you reread Desperado yet, or are you still clearing him town based on hazy feelings?

no I'm fine with lynching Desp if it comes down to it. I agree he's not much of a presence in this game and he's not really doing much of anything or pushing anyone. the only experience I have with him is fast and furious but I was scum in there (plus he was mason and buddied his partner hard in thread) so I don't have any experience pesonally reading him, but the fact that so many other people agree with this and agree it's a scumtell for him makes me feel p good about lynching him. however, I still prefer SAD

pieguyn · Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:30 pm

vote: Desp

pieguyn · Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:36 pm

In post 5279, Cephrir wrote:P.S. I'm actually becoming town as shit right now, I know it sucks to watch that train roll away from you, but sometimes you gotta roll with the punches. Find another mislynch to push, I'm starting to think you may not get this one after all.

@geists:

is that ^ smug enough for you

In post 5284, Generic wrote:If you don't think he will flip scum why did you spend the majority of our arguement claiming I was trying to shift focus from him onto you, and that I was bussing a teammate?

also this

pieguyn · Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:37 pm

*this as in I agree with that point

pieguyn · Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:04 am

vote: Desp

\o/

pieguyn · Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:32 am

boooooooooooooooooooo
;w;

pieguyn · Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:35 am

In post 5331, Generic wrote:
In post 5324, geists wrote:Way to ruin a reaction test guys.
It was about as obvious as faking a day vig.

I've pulled that one off too \:D/

pieguyn · Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:29 pm

vote: SSK

@Casso:

where's Thor?

I don't remember seeing any Thor posts D2. this reminds me of marketplace how both Faraday and Empire disappeared without any warning at all and they were both scum. both times I've seen this happen the slot ended up being scum and I don't see any specific reason why half of a town slot would disappear and not explain why

about flashlynching SSK I think it's possible casso-scum wanted to lead a lynch on his partner so no one would get paranoid of him. but then the problem is why would SSK even claim doctor in the first place. but then I guess it might set off a red flag if SSK flips scumdoc and didn't claim doc or anything like that? I'd guess a scumdoc wouldn't just claim vanilla

pieguyn · Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:53 pm

huh that's actually kind of interesting. does Thor prefer playing scum?

I'm working on VCA atm and I'm really not sure if it makes sense for casso to be scum here. remember early on D2 when SSK got wagoned and then the casso wagon came up? if scum wanted to cash in on SSK I don't get why they'd bus casso as a counterwagon at all. plus the casso wagon is full of unknowns throughout, although he was saying it's not uncommon for his wagon to be entirely town-driven as town. I haven't figured out anything decisive yet

it's kind of funny bc this supports another theory I'm working on (and Nero's VCA also supports it)

pieguyn · Sun Jan 12, 2014 7:38 pm

In post 5525, zMuffinMan wrote:if you think nacho isn't capable of manipulating this sort of thing, you're sadly mistaken

says the guy who had to do damage control on the VCA I did in imperishable night

pieguyn · Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:29 pm

ok here's what I have so far. it's a big wall of text but I highly suggest you read it cause it seems p telling

Spoiler: TEXTWALL

so yeah Casso is scum. also here's the question again for clarity/convenience

EVERYONE: who do you think bussed SSK?

I might do more later but I dunno how much I can really get out o this. VCA is way harder in large games > <//

pieguyn · Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:30 pm

oh also the wagons on casso seem p town driven (Generic is town as fuck and I'm thinking zmuffin is town although I dunno how many agree with me on that). so the idea that scum wouldn't bus casso as a counterwagon to SSK is invalid, given the wagons were town driven

pieguyn · Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:57 pm

In post 5538, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Pie, I will also point out that SSK joined 1 major wagon (stuffed crust near deadline). His reaction to every other wagon has been "why is this wagon happening? I don't like it.". I don't know how you have a townread on Muffin.

wow this is really weak. I was expecting "you're wrong, here's why". but instead you don't even directly address my point? what the hell nacho? where'd all your passion go 0.0

anyway, what motivation would scum-SSK have for pushing a vanity wagon on BBQ as opposed tyo jumping on town-you for p much the same reason? especially considering he was complaining about you seemingly following Nati earlier. idr how much support there was for BBQ lynch but I don't think there was that much, so why wouldn't he try to get a p strong town player mislynched instead? and he wouldn't have to worry about you turning the wagon aroudn on his ass bc he was already about to be lynched anyway

In post 5551, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Based on interactions with SSK, I think Ser Arthur Dayne is scum. His defense against an SSK flashwagon at the end of D1 based purely on the lack of associative tells is weak. I guess the flip side is that scum knew SSK wasn't dying D1 because he had a doc fake-claim so there would be some scum running him up. But, not claiming D1 would actually be beneficial for scum. And the reasoning is really bad. I am thinking SAD is very likely the second scum. Not sure about the others yet.

Sakura, can you answer my questions?

^^^ this

In post 5557, Cephrir wrote:pie I hate to break it to you after all this work but I really don't think this is a good argument

care to explain why not? also feel free to answer the above question

where the hell did your casso townread come from anyway? I can't find the reason for it anywhere

In post 5567, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.

I'VE BEEN COMMENTING ON IT THE WHOLE TIME
but everyone ignored me too

In post 5589, MC Maraca wrote:You know that we're town, and that vote isn't gonna do anything. You also know that I've been defending you, so me placing that vote didn't just come from no where. If you're town, instead of OMGUS'ing and attempting to flail, it'll probably be more conductive if you gave my hydra partner and my mason partner a reason to read you as town

what do you think of casso's response to my VCA?

In post 5593, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:So, I've been thinking about this and re-evaluating my thoughts. Why not lynch a different player than SSK today? SSK as scum is harmless to us since we already lost the vig. I doubt it makes much difference whether we lynch him now or later. The key reason I feel this way is that as time goes on the skill of the town deteriorates as the competent townies get killed. We should lynch the best scum (the ones capable of talking themselves of out trouble) while the competent townies are still alive. That way, we ensure they don't come up with a crazy way to wiggle their way out of lynches later on. On the other hand, SSK can be lynched anytime. I found it interesting he didn't claim to be roleblocked or anything but scumclaimed right away. Anyone can lynch him anytime. It is a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, the best scum players are usually only lynched when the best townies are still alive and they are far more of a threat. ffery, what are your thoughts about this? Also, Sakura's responses were meh. I didn't really find anything that made me go "well, that explains everything." It is still a matter of weighing whether she genuinely believed in that tell enough to outweigh her ignoring it in two other games.

this x 999. I was actually thinking about this earlier but I didn't know if it'd be a good idea or not 0.0

vote: Arthur

wanna lynch Arthur with me?

In post 5599, Cephrir wrote:No. We are lynching SSK today. If we have any remaining investigative roles we give them a night; SSK could be a scum PR; narrows the field for tomorrow though this one is probably not relevant. I see no compelling reason to do anything else.

I don't get the first one
if SSK is a scum PR why would he give up so easily? this is scum motivated thinking in that you don't actually try to figure out if he is a PR or not and instead use ATP. and why would you wanna lynch SSK over arthur of all people considering your whole crusade against him earlier?
lynching SSK does the exact opposite of narrowing the field. if we lynch SSK then the lynchpool tomorrow is the exact same as it was today, so it doesn't get narrowed at all 0.0 but if we lynch someone else we get way more information. we can lynch SSK anytime as we have him in the bag p much. it's way better to lynch someone else today

pieguyn · Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:04 pm

@F-16:

speaking of SSK interactions what do you make of SSK voting BBQ over casso at D1 deadline? also where are you at with casso?

@geists:

what's your thoughts on Arthur and what do you make of maraca voting casso?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:33 am

In post 5603, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I'll be pretty happy if you can help me through them by providing comments so we can hash them out together.

sure. since we seem to be talking about norl I'll start there

In post 5604, Cephrir wrote:re not lynching SSK: perhaps the more important thing to me is that if we don't lynch scum today my morale for this game will drop from 0 to -15.

I did crusade against SAD but he's done some things since then (ie flipping on me) that don't make much sense from a scum perspective since then. He does deserve a reread though. Soon I'll probably comb his iso, make a wall about him with no particular point at the outset, and see what I end up thinking, because that is sort of what I do, and then I'll make all of you read the whole thing and follow my thought process because I can.

SSK might as well be already lynched. look at it this way. suppose you knew 100% player x is scum but no one else knew it and then you lynch SSK today and get NK'ed. then player x could talk his way out of a lynch down the road when you could otherwise have stopped him today. also if lynching scum would boost your morale then we can always just find and lynch a scum who isn't SSK o/

In post 5618, Generic wrote:But his involvement in this game represents potential wifom, and if we choose someone else and they are town he is still there with a vote to quick hammer immediately.

if we don't wanna worry about WIFOM all we need to do is ignore everything SSK posts. and we can prevent a quickhammer by not putting anyone at L-1 and considering L-2 as the ~real~ L-1.

pieguyn · Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:53 am

In post 5613, Norlkaz wrote:I'm not sure why SSK gave up; it's not like we'd expect his protect to work anyway.

first off I think what he meant by this was that we would be expecting SSK to be roleblocked if he really was town doc. so idk if this actually means anything in terms of alignment

the first thing I saw is 4793 in relation to 4927. the first one makes me think he really did believe in his towncase, but then 4927 indicates he agrees there's a lot of counterarguments for it, which is not the kind of conviction I'd expect after 4793. it definitely make sense in the context of him trying to derail the wagon and then having to backpedal on his stance when it didn't work

the massive wallpost defending SSK is null as it could easily come from scum defending a buddy. I don't get the logic here though

In post 4789, Norlkaz wrote:The "I think Geists is a great asset to the town but not a good choice for town leader / what masons?" line of thought sounds genuine.
It particularly sounds :Unguided: so I'll be impressed if it turns out to be a scum-QT-product.

would it really be hard to make smth like that up as scum? I remember in touhou upick when me and GIF had daychat and were working out what I would claim on D2 and then I fked up the actual claim and we had to completely wing it. so I disagree that unguided != scum

In post 4789, Norlkaz wrote:I hope I have not embarrassed myself by defending scum.

I don't like this either bc it sets up for a really easy backpedal if SSK flips scum.

pieguyn · Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:54 am

mb derailing and then backpedaling isn't the right idea. testing the waters might be better? he may have wanted to throw smth out there and see how everyone responds, to see if derailing the wagon is even possible

pieguyn · Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:02 am

In post 5628, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:He seems to like faking stuff for the reactions. This explains his FOS on Cephrir after he misinterprets Cephrir's "throws a fit" as annoyance at the disintegration of the SSK wagon. Going to have to see the extent to which he can do this as scum.

this also makes sense but idk if he did this here considering he was calling SSK town sicne 4466 before there was even a wagon on SSK

pieguyn · Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:08 am

In post 5625, Generic wrote:I had written him off as low down the PoE for that very action until I saw that post. It bothers me a lot because he had defended SSK yet we now have heavy suspicion he's scum and he sort of shrugs and asks a weird question with no detail or premise to expand to a larger theory.

good point

the other thing I don't get is if he faked a towncase for reactions why wouldn't he just come straight out and say "hey guys, this was a reaction test, this guy is town and xxx and yyy are scum I'm the strongest suck it" or smth along those lines? if it was faked from a town motivation it'd be way better to clear all the confusion afterward

pieguyn · Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:22 pm

pdodge
was on vacation

pieguyn · Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:30 pm

WHAT JUST HAPPENED

pieguyn · Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:17 pm

234 page replace in weak. 358 page replace in is the strongest \o/

pieguyn · Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:01 pm

In post 5701, zMuffinMan wrote:if we were lynching someone other than SSK today, why sad over casso? what happened to you being sure casso was scum a few pages back?

I'd be fine with both of them. I'm more sure of SAD than casso so I prefer to go there first.

In post 5813, KoreanBBQ wrote:Good job on waving away my vote on you. *thumbs up*

notice how he's been doing this the whole game and has ignored me several times

anyway nothing's really happened. I'm confident of SAD. Casso and Norl are probably scum and if it's not Casso then there's a tinfoil hat theory I'm working on that seems to be holding up p well, but it'd be a waste of time to discuss it today.

pieguyn · Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:05 pm

@F-16:

thoughts on the idea that norlkaz was testing the waters to try to derail the SSK wagon? the fact that he left himself an obvious back door about defending scum reinforces that IMO

@Sakura:

why am I scum and why is SAD town?

@geists:

what exactly made your eyebrows fly up re: Bert? I didn't see it although I'm really worn out so I probably missed smth

pieguyn · Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:31 pm

wait, norl was attacking casso? I must have missed that 0.0

pieguyn · Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:40 pm

that's a good point

I was thinking about smth like this earlier. if scum have daychat then a bus on SSK if any was probably planned. so in this case if both were scum norl would have probably gone for SSK over casso. if not then it indicates that norl was trying to conceal the bus on SSK and/or distance from Casso which in turn indicates a lot of scum were bussing SSK already

I agree it's unlikely they're both scum. who do you think is more likely among {Norl, Casso}?

pieguyn · Sat Jan 18, 2014 10:24 am

In post 5943, Sakura Hana wrote:You're scum until you prove otherwise to me, because I don't see the pieguy that scumhunts and finds scum that I know. SAD's town because i feel his posts are actual intent on finding scum and moving the town to get the best out of their lynches.

if I'm not scumhunting then what the hell have I been doing this whole game? go back and look at D1. you're right in that I haven't been going as hard and fast as before but I tend to slow down a bit in large games (see marketplace). I've been mostly in observe mode the past few days and I'm waiting for another flip to give me a sense of whether my picture of the gamestate is accurate or not. also my reads haven't been changing very much. I've had SAD scum for a while and currently I'm mostly trying to figure out casso/norlkaz.

also I'm having trouble keeping up with all my games recently .-.

where are you currently at with Bert? I know you've been having reservations about him but I don't know exactly what it is you're looking for in town-Bert or what's giving you reservations here. elaborate plz

In post 5944, KoreanBBQ wrote:Why did you use the word IF here?

bc I'm not entirely convinced they indeed have it so I'm making my assumptions clear. it doesn't seem too unlikely daytalk would be different between them and the scumteam (for example in touhou upick scum had daytalk but no one else had it and there was nothing that indicated as such, so I don't see why the reverse couldn't apply)

pieguyn · Sat Jan 18, 2014 10:25 am

norlkaz = llamarble

pieguyn · Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:04 am

hey sakura talk to me about Bert

pieguyn · Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:55 am

In post 6001, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 5999, pieguyn wrote:hey sakura talk to me about Bert
Bert's this guy that likes to follow gut reads a lot.

you 2 would probably get along! *runs*

can you answer my question plz

In post 5991, pieguyn wrote:where are you currently at with Bert? I know you've been having reservations about him but I don't know exactly what it is you're looking for in town-Bert or what's giving you reservations here. elaborate plz

pieguyn · Sun Jan 19, 2014 7:05 pm

prod dodge post tomorrow

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:55 pm

In post 6137, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Generic, your point about Cephrir resonates with me because one of the things I found off about him was his interaction with me. When no one suspected me D1, he defended me calling Sakura's FOS on me "moonlogic" in 959 and expresses approval of my objection to Pieguyn's GoodMorning read in 961, agreeing with me on Rofl in 1071 and in general treading very carefully. He also appreciating my meta-dive of DOMO in 1320. However, after a few people suspect me, his tone then changes with him starting to throw slight suspicion in 2744, 3695, and 4021. However, after I start pushing on him, he backs off and again starts reading me as town which I feel is similar to what you describe. I didn't feel that his reads had any genuine scumhunting behind them but rather sucking up to universally townread players while setting up suspicion on players that could be suspicious which is what I gathered from his interaction with me.

did you notice he did this with me too

when I posted my catchup post on replace in he immediately threw me into his townpile and then when it looked like I could be lynched he conveniently reversed said read with a sketchy reason

In post 1914, Cephrir wrote:I think I am beginning to agree with this, his questioning of me felt kind of robotic

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:24 pm

In post 6175, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Did you go though my list of reads? Are there any reads you disagree with and if so, who?

where
link plz

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:10 pm

agree on ceph, SAD, Norl

I think I've noticed some possible associatives between SAD and zmuffin. I gambited a townread on zmuffin bc I've lost 3 games to him now and he knows I'm paranoid as fuck about him so I was hoping if I wrote him off as town he'd be a bit less careful and I saw a few interesting things although idk how much of it is alignment indicative. so if Casso is town then zmuffin is probably scum with SAD. I can elaborate if you want and it might be better saved till after SAD flips, but the summary is that he's cherrypicking in favor of SAD and he also ignored me a bit when I was questioning him about SAD, which incidentally also fits with how SAD kept ignoring me. this is kind of a tinfoil hat theory but I get the feeling he was coaching SAD in their QT as to how to handle my pressure on him. I also don't get why he moved me up a tier on his town list and it makes me think he was manipulating me into taking his side in the casso debate. also, he was trolling me at the start of the game and there were some manipulative responses to casso e.g. "you have a very skewed view of my towngame", "IF anyone were going to notice this isn't my scum game here, i expected it to be nacho, and the fact he still thinks i'm scum atm is at least a cause for concern even apart from the weak reasoning for it" that were similar to what he kept doing in marketplace (the best one of all was to me > < so I'm on high alert for shit like that from him), and he's kind of coasting and not doing much besides debating with Nacho. I also disagree that he wouldn't necessarily play this way as scum.

the way BRO was feeling lost early game felt town, but he hasn't done anything really town since and he could probably fake it. I think Sakura is more town then he is, but on the other hand I really don't see nacho-scum running Sakura-town up as a deadline lynch. it seems like a dirty trick and I don't think Nacho would deliberately do smth that would quite obviously piss Sakura off. the argument between Casso and zmuffin might be cross bussing, but after marketplace I get the feeling they'd try to survive together instead and they were going at it p hard so I'm inclined to say at most 1 scum in there. so for me it's SSK, Norl, Ceph, then either {Casso, Sakura} or {SAD, zmuffin}

Proph's is p much null for me, although I have no idea how to read Bert. his replace in seemed town but it's not fakeable

besides that I have BBQ and Generic in my townpile so our reads are p much the same 0.0

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:35 pm

F-16, Casso thoughts on my zmuffin read

plz don't tell me I revealed it for nothing T_T

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:18 pm

all my townreads on him were part of the gambit. the tinfoil theory was indeed this one but up till now I never said exactly what it was, just that SAD was scum and a part of it

I'm currently in the middle of typing up a more detailed explanation give me a few more minutes

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:55 pm

@F-16:

this should be everything. let me know if I missed smth

1004 here he kind of starts trolling me a bit. this makes me think scum bc he said somewhere he likes trolling and manipulating people as scum

In post 4269, zMuffinMan wrote:also i dunno if the "elaborate plz" was directed at my comment about marketplace3 but going back to the way nacho has approached his read on me here, the thing i really didn't like about it (and something i couldn't really mention while marketplace was ongoing) is that nacho should really know this isn't how i play scum. he should know i like manipulating and trolling people as scum, and the fact he thinks my lack of engagement is something likely to come from me as scum is fucking bullshit. this is the biggest issue i had with the way he was trying to "sort" me.

plus i don't believe he thought anything he was doing was going to give him an idea of my alignment either way, and the conclusions he comes to based off my posts are just bad.

IF anyone were going to notice this isn't my scum game here, i expected it to be nacho, and the fact he still thinks i'm scum atm is at least a cause for concern even apart from the weak reasoning for it

the first paragraph and last sentence is smth he kept doing in marketplace where he basically kept saying that the way he was playing was undoubtedly his town game, and that there was no way this would be his scum game. one example from marketplace is 3715, last paragraph. everything he did in there was so that ffery/cabd would townread him when they did a metadive on him and then when I pushed on him here he came up with that paragraph and kept saying it was his town game. here he's doing a similar thing by comparing to marketplace. idk if it's actually alignment indicative and I don't know if he does this as town too but there's a bunch of parallels

In post 4371, zMuffinMan wrote:ok. i'm not convinced you're town but you're right that i don't agree with your lynch. the reason i'm not pushing anyone else yet is because i'm still going over ISOs. i made yours a priority read because of the wagon on you.

the things i don't like are the things i don't like and i'm not going to avoid mentioning those things just because i think you might be town. your read progression on me is still one of the things i don't like about you because i don't understand how you went from initially thinking i'm town to thinking i'm scum (or at least a worthwhile vote) to changing your mind about me at some point between the end of D1 and that reads list you recently gave to now thinking i'm scum again (or at least that i've earned "scum points"?). it'd be nice if you actually explained what was going on with this.

his major complaint about casso was that he thought casso wasn't trying to sort him. and here he notices that SAD's read on him flip flopped a lot, however he still thinks SAD is probably town, despite the fact he had claimed in a previous post he didn't like how SAD vote parked on him, which for me indicates he wasn't really trying to figure zmuffin out.

looking through SAD's ISO, there really wasn't much questioning towards zmuffin when his vote was on him D1, which reinforces this: 2110 ~ 2631
there was afaik only 1 post directed towards zmuffin in there

I get that his read on casso was specific to nacho himself, but I was talking with him about how I didn't think SAD was legitimately trying to sort me and I'd expect he'd take kind of an interest in it considering it's the same general problem he was having with casso. he also claimed the way SAD was forming reads was town but the way SAD came up with his read on me didn't seem like he was trying to figure anything out at all, and same thing with SAD's read on zmuffin. so I don't get why he was reading SAD as town despite the fact he was doing the same shit he accused Nacho of doing

In post 4393, zMuffinMan wrote:not really. i must admit paying attention to sad's read progression on you wasn't high on my list of priorities this game (shocking, i know). but i'll take your word for it. when did you ask him about it?

here I point out that SAD did the exact same thing with me. SAD initially had me as null, then town (which he still hasn't explained where his original townread on me came from), then flipped to scum, and now back to town again. but the problem here is that there was absolutely no followup to this question. if he was legitimately noticing SAD flip flopping reads as town then he should be more interested in the fact that SAD did the same thing to me and I'd think he'd be way more skeptical. instead I gave my response 4407 and then there was no response to it. the fact that he wasn't more interested in this IMO indicates he wasn't actually interested in scumhunting SAD in the first place.

In post 5113, zMuffinMan wrote:you have a very skewed view of my towngame. xenogears was an entirely different ballpark. there i was worried because the only two still-living players scumreading you at the time were me and ghostlin, who were fairly obviously going to be killed off consecutively on the following nights (and we both did end up dying consecutively on the following nights). i was worried there that you'd talk yourself out of a lynch because nobody else who wanted you dead would be around to really push you

here i don't have any of the same concerns. i'm not exactly a priority kill in the current gamestate, i'm not particularly worried about there being too few people who want to lynch you, and i don't see you being able to bullshit your way through the game much longer (although you seem to be doing an OK job of making people waver on you atm).

i'm also slightly worried because all the major wagons being considered atm (aside from SAD) are wagons on my scum reads, and generally that means i'm really, really wrong somewhere and i dunno where

two things here. the first sentence is the same thing I brought up before about affirming this is his towngame. second he still has a townread on SAD which I still don't get. it's also interesting how he makes a point to bring up the SAD wagon even though it's no longer a major wagon, which seems kind of odd, but idk if it means anything

In post 5548, zMuffinMan wrote:
Godly One wrote:maraca, geists,
domo
, goodmorning*
f16, bro
bbq, generic, pieguy, sakura, sad, cephrir
norlkaz

desperado
, bert
casso, mafiassk
pieguy, generic up, norlkaz down

rest of this list unchanged

this is where he moved me up in his townpile and I don't think he ever gave a reason for it. note that this was right after my VCA wall where I accused casso of bussing SSK. I get the feeling he did this so that I'd take his side in the casso debate

In post 5701, zMuffinMan wrote:if we were lynching someone other than SSK today, why sad over casso? what happened to you being sure casso was scum a few pages back?

this felt manipulative, as in trying to get me off his partner and back into Casso. the phraseology of the last sentence is really off. like is it really so impossible to believe I'd wanna go for SAD first considering I've been scumreading SAD for a while now as opposed to Casso where I've done a shitton of waffling the whole game? the timing of this felt really icky. essentially "I'm going to townread him so he takes my side" then "wtf why isn't he taking my side".

pieguyn · Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:16 pm

that's a really good point. I don't see why he would default to questioning Tammy who obv has experience with SAD

from what I can tell, and from what fferycabd said in marketplace, his scumgames have varying levels of bussing in them. I've played with scum him twice (imperishable night, marketplace). in imperishable night there was a townie who was a 1-way lover with one of the scum (BRO) so they set up for an easy bus on BRO and that was it. marketplace was weird bc it was 2 scumteams of 3 people each. he was on a team with Nacho/Empire hydra and DoctorPepper. there was a discussion earlier about this and iirc he originally didn't wanna bus DoctorP, but Nacho ended up doing it anyway and once it was decided he was on DoctorP early. in both games that was the only member of his scumteam he bussed and he defended his other scumbuddy (Nacho/Empire in marketplace, Nacho/GIF in imperishable night). so I don't think he'd default to bussing and I could completely see him defending a buddy like that

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:57 am

what the hell is that? that just feels like you're trying to distance from your BBQ case without actually dropping it

In post 6283, Titus wrote:Yeah your wagon might have reached 8. The whole point is the scum don't vote each other when they think it can go through. Don't try to force me to townead you. It won't work.

I love how you make this point and you completely ignored the part where SSK passed up a jump onto the Casso wagon

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:19 am

there was a wagon on Casso near D1 deadline although it only reached I think 4 or 5 votes. then SSK made a post 3730 looking at all the votes on his wagon where he voted BBQ for wanting a "flashlynch" (note Casso was the one who lead the deadline lynch on him). what do you think about this?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:25 am

@ffery:

thoughts on that? ^ it's p fking obvious that "permission to kill" was permission from his hydra partner and not to actually kill Sakura. so I'm inclined to agree the way she's sticking to it seems forced

also, what's your current read on zmuffin?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:52 am

what do you think of the associatives between SAD and zmuffin? or do you think that should wait till SAD flips

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 12:28 pm

In post 6317, geists wrote:
In post 6307, pieguyn wrote:what do you think of the associatives between SAD and zmuffin? or do you think that should wait till SAD flips
Did you post them earlier? Link?

6205
there was also F-16's point right after where he defaulted to questioning Tammy's stance on SAD, despite Tammy having experience with him

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 5:24 pm

In post 6349, geists wrote:I can already tell we'll be spinning in our QT grave tomorrow. I'll probably have to stop reading the game.

why don't we just lynch her

vote: Titus

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 5:34 pm

yeah but come on

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:00 pm

how sure are you about Casso town? and what gave you a full townread on him?

what do you think of BRO's replace out? if he was trying to stay under the radar on purpose idk if he'd do that. for me it indicates his inactivity was bc of him legitimately having trouble keeping up with the game. ofc he could still be scum regardless, but just as is he's more town than SAD, zmuffin, and norl IMO

why did Bert move down to null?

what does Nati like about zmuffin?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:41 pm

In post 6360, geists wrote:He was making a lot of excuses. It started to worry me.

is this smth that's specific to Bert? and how good is he at faking that weird all-over-the-place feeling he had at the start of the game?

bc I can't read him for shit and originally you had such a strong townread that the direction of paranoia would be reversed if he was scum. so I have a feeling I'll just end up sheeping you on this read.

and you're more sure about Nacho than in imperishable night right? the last thing I need is to let scum nacho win yet another game against me despite pegging him both times =.=

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:47 pm

In post 6364, geists wrote:As to muffin, I'm -finally- starting to learn how to read him.

how sure are you about this?

pieguyn · Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:24 pm

In post 6369, geists wrote:the excuses? usually he makes some excuses and pulls up his socks and starts towning it up by making his thoughts totally transparent. He was transparent but there was very little game content there - just excuses. I know that he genuinely does struggle in games this size though. He replaced out of the xenogears game because it was too big and too fast and too many people to evaluate effectively the way he goes about forming reads.

If he were still in the game, it wouldn't have taken a whole lot for him to firm the town read back up.

if this is the only thing giving you reservations about him then I think it's still looking p good. I can completely get having problems in large games (like in marketplace no matter how hard I tried I ended up doing a whole bunch of nothing)

is scum Bert good at faking transparency? I also remember BRO's game where I heard he was really apathetic and it looked like he was trying p hard at the start of the game, and if anything IMO all the excuses are a sign he actually does care. what do you think?

pieguyn · Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:35 pm

In post 6373, zMuffinMan wrote:regardless of SAD's alignment, i'm town here. so get over your boner for me, i don't swing that way, tia

why so defensive? I don't even have you on the table today. like at all. I'm waiting for SAD to flip before going after you bc if he somehow flips town that screws up the whole SAD-zmuffin theory (and a lot of my case on you is based on associatives to him). are you in shock that I'm not actually townreading you

in the meantime, can you explain why I moved up a tier in your townlist?

In post 6393, Sakura Hana wrote:P.Ed: My take on that is buddying, and speaking of Bert, perhaps you should check what happened during the last few pages of Day 2 with regards to voting, or ISO me and look for my case on Bert and his awful response to it.

walk me through this. first off, do you think his erratic voting is necessarily bc he's scum? if he gets lost in large games then I'd think this could be attributed to that instead

second, which posts exactly looked fake? I'm inclined to agree his interaction with you was kind of fake and/or forced, but I suck at figuring out if posts are fake or not. and if the best way to judge Bert is based off sincerity, then that should be p telling. does town Bert usually respond differently to cases on him?

pieguyn · Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:41 pm

In post 6371, geists wrote:I have a relatively small sample of scum-Bert games, between what I've played and what I've read. None of his scum games have been exactly like the others, but the sincerity and transparency seem hard for him to fake.

Something else that has characterized his recent scum games (the ones I was in) is that I die on night 1 (or maybe my first night in the game). Now that I've said that out loud I wouldn't assume that surviving a night or two in future games indicates he's town.

do you think he'd be able to fake the way he was acting when he replaced in?

I'm basically in the same position as you. I had a town-as-fuck read on him when he came in and then it's gotten weaker and weaker bc he's not doing anything. but I still wanna call him town bc his replace in seemed town as fuck. but on the other hand what Generic said about Proph is making me hesitate a whole fking lot 0.0

and what are your thoughts on his interactions with Sakura and ATE? does he usually act like that as town?

pieguyn · Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:53 pm

In post 6439, geists wrote:Bert and I both replaced into this newbie game: viewtopic.php?p=5320762#p5320762

He was scum.

My impression is that he can't fake the sincerity as scum, but he can throw enough chaos into his gameplay that you don't notice it's missing unless you're looking for it. That seemed to be true of Mala's Castle mini, which I meta'd. I described his play in that game as a burlesque of his town game.

talk to me about this chaos. his opening seemed really chaotic and p much no one had any idea what the hell he was doing, so do you think that's what's he was doing here?

I'm really undecided bc I think his town game is chaotic too and there were some parts that looked really sincere like 2368 and 2402. what do you think?

actually looking through Bert's ISO I'm relatively certain he's town. if he's scum I'll feel outright trolled

pieguyn · Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:38 am

In post 6453, zMuffinMan wrote:you looked town

care to explain why?

In post 6475, Sakura Hana wrote:Here let me help you out
I'm surprised pieguy never brought this up. Now please stop townreading me off a non-existant "towntell"

I could have sworn I did but oh well. regardless this is why I was never entirely convinced by your ATE

can you walk me through your Bert read plz? 6434

In post 6483, Titus wrote:Like hell you don't want people reading you as town due to your meta.

Sakura does this all the time

pieguyn · Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:35 pm

sakura stop ignoring me

plz walk me through your Bert read. I'll even quote for your convenience

In post 6434, pieguyn wrote:
In post 6393, Sakura Hana wrote:P.Ed: My take on that is buddying, and speaking of Bert, perhaps you should check what happened during the last few pages of Day 2 with regards to voting, or ISO me and look for my case on Bert and his awful response to it.
walk me through this. first off, do you think his erratic voting is necessarily bc he's scum? if he gets lost in large games then I'd think this could be attributed to that instead

second, which posts exactly looked fake? I'm inclined to agree his interaction with you was kind of fake and/or forced, but I suck at figuring out if posts are fake or not. and if the best way to judge Bert is based off sincerity, then that should be p telling. does town Bert usually respond differently to cases on him?

In post 6557, Titus wrote:So you're telling me Sakura always wants people to townread her due to her meta and then dies what she said she wanted in the first place?

no she doesn't want to use cheap tactics to be townread by people. see this post

pieguyn · Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:29 pm

no it says she doesn't want to use cheap tactics to be townread. from what I could tell the "meta" she was referring to here is said fatalism + ATE. she doesn't wanna be townread bc of that, aka cheap tactics

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:16 pm

vote: SAD

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:43 pm

who needs to hear from him

let's just speedlynch the fk out of him and call it a day \o/

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:23 pm

btw my case on SAD is p much his BS defense of SSK. he claimed he didn't want a SSK lynch bc "lack of information", but then other people got lynched and he completely forgot all about getting information from lynches. when pressured, he basically just started flip flopping and making shit up to cover up his stance on SSK. in 4300 he misreps "information" as entirely consisting of the wagon from the SC lynch, when there's way more information to be gained. he KNOWS this, as indicated by 4303:

In post 4303, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4270, Generic wrote:Now I can easily speculate why these two are excempt from suspicion but I want SADs reasons and his thoughts on their connection to the SC wagon.
Please abort any thought of analyzing the SC wagon THAT GOT HIM LYNCHED and instead look for who was pushing him earlier in the day (which I want to do when I have a bit of time).

not to mention he never actually did this. conclusion: he was just making shit up to cover up his BS defense. it was bad enough before SSK was confscum and SSK's scumflip reaffirms that his defense was BS (especially the fact he flipped encryptor). he also accused me of being scum for a "generic OMGUS" by pushing back on people who accused me, but then did the same thing himself in 4114. his reads on me (null -> town -> scum -> town) and zmuffin make no sense and he still hasn't explained either of them. also there's the whole associatives with zmuffin although that's predicated on zmuffin-scum

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:58 pm

In post 6648, Casso the King of Seals wrote:That's probably her angle if scum. I would be pretty fucking impressed if she could take my advice to heart that quickly, though.

if she's scum it'd make sense considering she didn't have much time to adjust her scumgame. she tried to replicate her town meta but since she didn't have any time to entirely change her play the way she was so stubborn about weird things came across as forced. do you disagree?

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 2:19 pm

In post 6656, Titus wrote:I agree with zmuffin that the wagon that got sc lynched has little info. Yet, the fact he did not do said analysis (assuming without searching) that would be scummy as you should be providing info promised.

wait, how much of the thread have you read? for someone who hasn't read the thread this is a really specific point to agree about

either that or you took it from your former daychat

anyway the point is that he blatantly made up a stance and then flip flopped when pressured about it. the about of information you can actually get from the wagon is irrelevant

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:50 pm

....................are you actually serious

well that explains his comment about mafia killing him

Generic/Titus/SAD/zmuffin?

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:06 pm

In post 6701, Titus wrote:Pie, you really think Generic and I can be scumbuddies with the way he's attacking me? You've been pretty obviously town but for your read on me but damn man.

I don't see why not

this is also the easiest defense for scum and I'm inclined to think you're scum for it. you're basically going "I'm not scum because xxx" which indicates you were obviously aware of xxx when you did it. thus you're quite obviously able to manipulate said tell so you can bring it up later. especially given you said you love fking with towntells, I don't see why this isn't possible

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:38 pm

ffery if it was anyone but you I'd be fking pissed at you breaking a possible reaction test. but since it's you and I saw what happened you're off the hook

RC is legit though considering there was no kill

In post 6707, Titus wrote:Pie, I can fake how Generic posts? Plus, that's not a tell. It's also not a meta argument. It's an argument saying sane and rational scum don't bus there. They definitely don't do it in that manner.

can you link/walk me through what happened?

anyway, it's the same idea as a tell

your argument: "scum would never bus there"
scum dupe maneuver: bus
given scum still had daychat at that point I could see you coordinating a bus for that exact reason. and you just said you always do this with manipulating towntells

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:10 pm

not buying it

vote: Generic

pieguyn · Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:43 pm

RC = JK
you = scum
titus = scum
I don't see how a titus scumflip clears you at all

pieguyn · Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:07 pm

vote: SAD

I still want an SAD lynch atm, if not go for Titus. Proph is leaning town

pieguyn · Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:14 pm

the cases on SAD are here
6621, 6624, 6649

Proph is leaning town bc of Generic's interactions with him

In post 6389, Generic wrote:If I could intervene for a moment, Proph is starting to join the front runners for scum. He despises drawing scum and tends to post very little due to a lack of motivation and concerns his dislike of being scum will stand out in his play.

Already being prodded is strike one right now.

In post 6455, Generic wrote:
In post 6423, Prophylaxis wrote:Prod received, posting sometime today.
18 hours later...

I told you Proph, I would be keeping an eye on you.

Strike two.

this is scum lining up a mislynch plain and simple. Bert was solidly in the townblock when he replaced in. then he saw all the paranoia floating around about Bert and capitalized on the replacement to knock Bert's slot out of the townblock and turn it into a viable lynch. given he felt the need to do damage control like this, this also indicates that (besides Generic) the townblock was p strong

I really have to hand it to Generic though. fking impressive scumplay

pieguyn · Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:31 pm

good point

then again that was on D3 before encryptor got lynched. if he wanted to coach Proph he could have done so via daychat. also note Proph didn't even get more active after he pointed this out

Generic providing meta tells this easily also makes sense in the context of him lining up a mislynch. he would have brought it up easily in order to get the slot lynched

pieguyn · Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:40 pm

Generic already had like all of the towncred

given Generic was p solidly in the townblock and Bert still had a lot o points in his favor, idk if it makes sense to bus there. they could have just accepted it and moved on without losing much even if Proph flipped scum at some point

pieguyn · Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:18 pm

pdodge

pieguyn · Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:25 am

In post 7004, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I disagree with your worldview about Pie or that he is in any danger at all of getting lynched. But putting that aside, you are arguing that we should lynch lynchbait, but isn't that exactly what scum want? They lynch the weaker townies (with approval from the Masons, no less) and kill the stronger townies (and conftown) at night. If you think someone is town and easy to lynch, it falls on you to give everything you got to derail the lynch. if I think someone is lynchbait and town, I defend them to the death.

I think Titus is scum. I thought Cephrir was scum as well. So, I am happy to lynch Titus today. But I obviously disagree with your next targets. I think making a lynch-list purely based on the likelihood of that person being mafia (in other words, your reads from scummiest to towniest) and lynching the scummiest players is beneficial. I am still unable to grasp the added advantage we get from taking player skill into account. It seems to be a more sophisticated version of a "don't want this player in LYLO" move which I strongly disagree with.

this

besides that, it doesn't seem like there's much of anything going on. I'm still fine with SAD or Titus and I'm p sure about both of them so idgaf which one we lynch. not putting Titus at L-1 bc selfhammer

pieguyn · Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:00 pm

In post 7072, geists wrote:The main thing holding me back from pushing Pie into my town pile is that he keeps going quiet.

I'm quiet bc I really don't have anything left to do. I'm p sure of SAD/Titus/zmuffin and it looks like everyone else is seeing it too (or at least SAD/Titus, and I've already laid out why zmuffin is scum especially with SAD scum). plus it's got to the point where I have at least somewhat concrete reads on p much everyone. so I don't really need to do much of anything. I'm p much just waiting for SAD or Titus to flip and if it turns out I'm wrong I'll reevaluate

pieguyn · Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:46 pm

In post 7216, geists wrote:Knowing the priority of my death should probably increase, I like all my cards on the table before a game day ends.

Speaking of which, I'm liking SAD better based on recent posts.

which posts? also, his push on me sucks and is intended to throw dirt as opposed to actually scumhunting

In post 7211, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Well it's always to be expected that when people calm down their read will generally get weaker as they begin to question if they truly thought you were scum or just raging. In fact if anything I would expect scum's reads to be more static
just because it would be much easier to keep going "SAD is scum" because you've already had a large argument that half the people didn't bother reading and assumed that your argument lead you to believe that way, rather than having to change reads and begin pushing elsewhere.

Pedit: @F-16

this is so fucking sketchy I want to cry like can someone give me a dayvig shot or smth like that to shoot this fucker already?

he's indirectly opposing a behavior I'm doing to paint me as scummy. this shows the true motivation of his push on me. after i ignored him, he saw addressing me directly wouldn't work so now he's using indirect methods like this to subtly throw dirt at me and reinforce the idea I'm scum. it also includes a dichotomy he set up that is intended to be town behavior (rather than having to change reads and begin pushing elsewhere) vs. scum behavior (keep going "SAD is scum" because you've already had a large argument that half the people didn't bother reading and assumed that your argument lead you to believe that way) when this is first of all a completely false dichotomy and second, the "scum behavior" half misrep'd the fuck out of what I was doing. again he's being subtle and indirectly reinforcing the idea that I'm scum instead of doing it directly. this is a manipulative tactic as opposed to being direct about it and is scum behavior

In post 7217, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:So am I. It just makes me want to lynch Titus more.

Although I have a theory that they could both be scum. Neither votes the other. The people on the wagon are flexible and don't mind voting either. While others like zMuffin try to pull away from both and vote Proph instead while both Titus and Arthur are suspicious of Proph. It could be tinfoil hat but Titus/Arthur/Muffin actually make sense. Thoughts?

I saw smth supporting this but I didn't post it bc I wanted to see SAD flail more

In post 6903, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6899, Prophylaxis wrote:And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.
Oh I'm sorry, does it make a huge difference to you?

See this is the thing I mean. You keep spewing things right and left that literally serve no purpose other than to look like you're trying.

Name one scum motivation for me "thinking you're scum" but not voting you. Go ahead. Enlighten me.

Titus (2) - Prophylaxis, Norlkaz
Ser Arthur Dayne (2) - Sakura Hana, pieguyn
Prophylaxis (2) - zMuffinMan, Titus

Not Voting (7) - geists, Casso the King of Seals, Ms Marangal, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, KoreanBBQ, goodmorning, Ser Arthur Dayne

afaik not wanting to jump on a wagon right at the same time as both of your scumbuddies is a p good scum motivation

pieguyn · Tue Feb 04, 2014 5:39 pm

In post 7222, geists wrote:If you're town take a deep breath and stop assuming that any suspicion of you has to come from scum.

there's way more to it than his push on me. not to mention he's misrep'd me about 10 times now (not to mention others where he keeps claiming they've never made cases on him when they really did). but ok

pieguyn · Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:33 pm

In post 7235, Titus wrote:Pie, please enumerate what SAD allegedly misrepped you on.

Spoiler: wall

In post 7122, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:So you can stop your power-lurking and actually start putting in effort

this is a misrep - i've put in a ton of effort over the course of this game. i am also not lurking. i am reading the whole thread

In post 7122, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:, because right now you're pathetic and useless with your "ohhhh I solved the game with my super awesome deduction skills that relies on not 1, not 2, but 3 people being scum,

it's p fucking obvious that i'm calling all 3 people as scum AT THE SAME TIME. i am saying all 3 of SAD/you/zmuffin are scum. how he wouldn't realize this especially after reading F-16's scumteam guess is beyond me - thus at this point it's an intentional misrep

In post 7122, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:and I will offer no compromises or bother to reread, give analysis, or bother making a case

6649 he's done this to Nacho too. i have also done plenty of rereading and analysis

In post 7124, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Also notice how he's already preparing for his back-tracking ^

another misrep - if one of my 3 scumreads is wrong then obviously i'm going to go back and figure out where i went wrong. this is basically a continuation of #2

In post 7122, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Your apathy currently is not helping anyone whatsoever, and you're being dead-weight

i am definitely not apathetic and i hope i'm not being dead weight. i have lost a lot of motivation but i'm sure as hell not apathetic

In post 7122, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:I despise anyone who says some dumb shit like the thing you just said, because it gives us, the "accused", literally NOTHING TO WORK WITH.

i have given him plenty to work with over the course of this game. it's not my problem he doesn't wanna do anything with it

In post 7223, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:I'm gonna stop you right there and tell you (if you actually decide to read the WHOLE game) me and F-16 were talking about Cephrir.

this is a misrep - i have read the whole game

In post 7229, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:I LOVE YOU <3
Okay now that people stopped reading this watch Pie take your theory and turn it into his and spend the rest of the day and probably the coming days repeating "muffin/titus/SAD zzzz I'm just gonna bullshit my way through the thread".

this seems to completely ignore the fact I've thought zmuffin/you/SAD was the scumteam for a while now and misreps it as me stealing the idea from F-16

In post 7230, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Now that I actually read your rage paragraph:

this is misrepping the case on him - what i mentioned literally had nothing to do with said reads list. also interesting how he accuses me of not reading despite apparently not even reading my post. it's also misrepping my argument as a "rage paragraph"

pieguyn · Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:38 am

I could have sworn I posted

In post 7280, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I actually think that Pie has a good point in 7221 about Arthur setting up a dichotomy saying that people leaving him alone are town whereas people continuing to push him are scum. I disagree with Arthur but I'm interpreting it more in the light of "
Arthur's townread on Cephrir is bad, Titus is actually scum
" as opposed to "
Arthur is scum using poor reasoning to get townreads
." Pie, what do you think of this?

I don't get what you mean here. iirc he was referring to ceph's argument w/him earlier which would imply he's scumreading cephrir

pieguyn · Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:21 pm

In post 7316, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I was saying that his townread on Cephrir was bad and that Cephrir/Titus is scum. Where are you at with your read on Titus?

where'd he have a townread on Ceph? I thought he was implying Ceph is scum

I still think Titus is scum. this is half POE half I didn't like her entrance. she keeps giving me gut town vibes recently but there's nothing unfakeable in there and at this point I've got townreads on almost everyone besides her/SAD/zmuffin (the only one left I don't have some sort of read either way on is Norlkaz). I'm regarding the whole Generic thing as null considering someone said Generic lives for buses like that

and now it unnerves me that all 3 of my scumreads are on the Proph wagon which is counter to both Titus and SAD

pieguyn · Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:29 pm

vote: Titus

pieguyn · Sun Feb 09, 2014 9:28 pm

so here's some analysis

SAD and Generic have been basically following each other for the entirety o D1/D2. whenever one of them goes somewhere, the other one follows suit. this could be considered buddying, but as far as I could tell, they were scumreading each other or at least putting pressure on each other and this still happened. this makes me think their D1 back-and-forths were distancing

Spoiler: TEXTWALL

In post 1856, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
Vote: Stuffed Crust

In post 1875, Generic wrote:
unvote,
Vote stuffed crust

I let a lot of the mental patient schtick slide but you are covering having to address anything with it and firing off posts at anything. It's getting old and I think you are desperately trying to troll your way out of your predicament

here SAD jumps on SC (I assume it's bc they were the biggest wagon at the time) and Generic follow suit. Generic's reason was kind of sketchy and comes way out of left field (if you dual iso Generic + SAD the bit about "mental patient stick" comes out of nowhere) and feels made up

In post 2590, Generic wrote:
In post 2585, pieguyn wrote:
In post 2573, Tammy wrote:Also, if maraca is somehow town, ^ this is probs scum.
care to explain why?

ftr I've been wondering about mara for a while now

In post 2582, KoreanBBQ wrote:So really the only difference is...more players.
yeah. since there's more players I feel overwhelmed trying to sort everyone =A= so often I have no idea what to do and I get lost easily. hence wagon hopping
Oh dear lord that was bad Pieguyn. Someone tries to make a point about you linked to mcmaraca and you now have suspicions of them?

And your explanation for being on all the major wagons is sheeping the majority? :no:

In post 2587, pieguyn wrote:I'll hop onto maraca if need be

still prefer casso. not sure about SC 0.0 SC's wagon is giving me bad vibes, but I'm willing to trust GIF's read if need be (plus it'd make sense if they chose to bus considering GIF is known for reading Varsoon correctly all the time). there's too many small wagons and IMO some people need to start merging to get some better wagons going
So you complain about too many small wagons but open the door to moving your vote to mcmaraca?

Also the comment about SC is atrocious. You are happy on the casso wagon, don't like the SC wagon yet are willing to trust GIF over it, which could be GIF bussing them?!?

Where do I start with THAT!? You trust scum on a wagon you have bad vibes for, you prefer the casso wagon but are ready to move onto two other wagons and you don't want indecision anymore but are open to a new push on mcmaraca....

You are scum aren't you Pieguyn.

In post 2621, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Pie wtf.

I thought you were actually town.

How do you go back to making me think you're scum in a span of 2 pages.

here Generic gets a scumread on me and in SAD's next post he immediately follows. this also explains his magical flip flopping read on me

In post 2966, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
Vote: F-16

In post 2967, Generic wrote:I started to have concerns about f16 with the recent posts, I could feel a sense of flailing to them.

But what's more disconcerting is the AMOUNT of naked votes suddenly moving over to him with no noticeable indication from these people they were swayin that way.

F16 is more likely town based on this odd wagon push alone, before I return to the strong early play.

here SAD votes F-16, Generic postures for a jump on F-16 wagon. the F-16 read literally comes out of nowhere (I don't think Generic ever gave any sort of read on F-16 at all before this)

In post 4359, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4354, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4319, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4316, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4310, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4306, Cephrir wrote:I don't care about votes as much as most people do.
Really? Interesting...
In post 4289, Cephrir wrote:This looks like textbook crowd folowwing not that I'm not guilty of that as well

In post 4306, Cephrir wrote:Fuck you, I'm reading the game. I just don't fact check minute accusations against people other than me; that's their job.
Really? Interesting...
In post 4268, zMuffinMan wrote: - the way he parked his vote on you D1, followed by parking his vote on me for a majority of the rest of the day. the one with me irked me a bit because i prodded him about it, and he said he wanted me to do something, and then i never did it and he backed off of me and now i'm apparently on the townier side of his middle-tier reads. i can maybe sorta understand it if something i'd done had changed his mind about me? but he hasn't mentioned me at all, really, so i dunno how that happened
The accusation here that was made is that I camped my vote. You then proceeded to ACCUSE me of "crowd following". What the fuck do you mean "it's their job". Nothing he said was freaking wrong. THE ACCUSATION YOU MATERIALIZED OUT OF THIN AIR IS. STOP. SCAPEGOATING.

In post 4306, Cephrir wrote:If you'd like to argue your suspicions didn't shift with convenient timing, I would consider it a reasonable rebuttal if you could produce evidence, but I don't care nearly enough to look for it myself.
Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat

Not to mention that statement is terrible for other reasons (for example the fact that you expect me to defend myself when you yourself HAVE NOT PRESENTED A CASE OR ANYTHING FOR ME TO DEFEND AGAINST. In the words of The Hound, "Bugger that. Bugger him. Bugger you.")
1) that's not a contradiction

2) Your read magically changed because everyone else's did; it's their job mean if you have a problem with that assertion then you need to argue with it

3) I don't care whether I have presented a case or not despite this being a massive double standard
1) Yes, "textbook crowd following" has NOTHING to do with votes. Dear me, where did I ever get the idea that it does?

2) What the fuck. No. Literally. WHAT. THE. FUCK. You're saying you're going to accuse me of something I didn't do and that IT'S MY JOB OF THEN FIGURING OUT IF IT'S TRUE OR NOT/FACT CHECKING IT? Are you going to keep fucking denying you're scum? "Hi I'm going to spew shit at you and I give no fucks if it's actually true or not that's your job of figuring out! Oh also I'm town!"

3) Yeah I'm done this please die scum.
1) You're a moron.

2) I was agreeing with Muffin. If you have an issue, take it up with him, rather than deflecting the issue by starting a fight with me and throwing in some fake rage.

3) I'd prefer not to, if only marginally.
2) What bong are you smoking from? Because there's no way you're in your right mind and think this. Here, I'll make it very clear:

MU
FF
IN
'S
S
TA
TE
ME
NT
H
AS
N
OT
HI
NG
T
O
DO
W
IT
H
YO
UR
S

You were not (key words: WERE NOT) agreeing with Muffin. You made a NEW accusation. JUST because you quote his post and then write something under it does not mean you're agreeing with the statement. He said I basically camped my vote and that I didn't explain my reads when I switched off of them. YOU came in and then said that it was "crowd following". These are two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THINGS. What the hell do you mean "take it up with muffin"? Stop fucking scapegoating. You and him were NOT saying the same thing. Not remotely. Stop deflecting your wrong accusation and putting the blame elsewhere. I can see where he's coming from and I even agree with him (and I am aware of the weaknesses in my playstyle, so again, I see where he's coming from). However, the accusation you made is WRONG. So you're either scum and spewing shit or haven't been reading the fucking thread and think you can bullshit your way through the game. You've already claimed that the latter is not true. So that leaves me with the former. If you're wrong, which any townie would've realized by now, you would've maned the fuck up and admitted it instead of crying about "But why don't you go blame hiiiiiiim? ;_;".

In post 4370, Generic wrote:See I have concerns about cephrir and I'm trying to decide exactly what it is.

The reads of the wagon are indeed consistent with his earlier reads, but it's exactly that sentence DOMO highlighted that pings something.

It's almost as if he had already determined how town the wagon was rather than the main thing being on a wagon should be, that you think the person is scum.
Yes you were asked for opinions of the players on that wagon, but you seemed to introduce whether the wagon was acceptably town enough.

I'm gonna scrutinise the arguement you had with SAD in a bit more detail to settle my mind on a few things, for now though I would rather the SAD wagon stays parked rather than accelerated.

same thing. right after SAD's argument with Ceph Generic comes in with an out of nowhere Ceph scumread. if you ISO Generic and SAD and ctrl+F "ceph" Generic was hardly making any mention at all of Ceph in the period before SAD's argument with him

on top of all of this they were arguing with each other for a good portion of D1/D2 (ISO both of them at the same time), however none of it appears to lead to a concrete read or case either way

so, tl;dr: SAD and Generic look like scumbuddies. there's an obvious pattern of one of them going somewhere, then the other just making up a read based on shit that happened recently before and following suit. there were also a lot of pointless arguments between the two of them that didn't lead to anything at all. there was also SAD's BS defense of SSK that he still hasn't responded to despite saying he did and so he has scum-scum interactions with both flipped scum

check mate ~

pieguyn · Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:30 pm

I love how you immediately roll in here and discredit me. hardly ggs

speaking of that readslist, that's yet another point in favor of you x Generic bc you somehow had a townread on him despite all that arguing. how'd you get a townread on him when p much every single mention of him in your ISO up till then was complaining about one of his posts?

Spoiler: for reference

In post 1930, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 1924, Generic wrote: I was third into geists. And my first three votes were held for a significant period.

But I have isoed you and found you have tactual oh also argued against the accusations amongst the bullshit. So that was a misrep on my part.

And your assessment of me I like a lot, even though I actually think my efforts are better than sub par.

unvote
This is quite a bad post for a multitude of reasons.

In post 1934, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Generic how

a) impulsive are you.

and b) reflective are you.

In post 1937, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Okay that's actually a pretty genuine post.

Pedit: the first. The second can easily be faked as scum so eh.

In post 2019, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 2018, Generic wrote:How is it OMGUS?

I love how you keep just tapping at people rather than actually going for a proper punch Arthur.
I have a feeling like you think I'm talking about you when I used generic when I actually mean the regular definition of it...

In post 3849, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 3819, Generic wrote:
In post 3807, KoreanBBQ wrote:VOTE: SC

=====[]
You hammered when we still had two hours before deadline and Pieguyn before you had said it was L-1?

vote KoreanBBQ
This is quite bad please stop

In post 3856, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 3853, Generic wrote:
In post 3849, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 3819, Generic wrote:
In post 3807, KoreanBBQ wrote:VOTE: SC

=====[]
You hammered when we still had two hours before deadline and Pieguyn before you had said it was L-1?

vote KoreanBBQ
This is quite bad please stop
That's an interesting post SAD. Why is pressure on the hammerer who would have been well aware he was hammering be a bad thing?
Here, let me see if I can change what you said to make you realize why it is a bad accusation:

"You hammered when we
only
had two hours before deadline and Pieguyn before you had said it was L-1, meaning that even
if
SC had claimed a role there was literally no way for a new wagon to form."

That's how absurd what you said sounds.

also, 6649

pieguyn · Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:40 pm

ok so I don't know how I feel about this

on one hand I finally got a zmuffin-scum lynch and I'm ecstatic. but on the other hand YOU DID IT WHILE I WAS GONE AND I DIDN'T GET MY SPOT ON HIS WAGON T_T

vote: SAD

there were several places where zmuffin was cherrypicking in favor of SAD which makes me think scum buddies. I'll write it up later but the summary is he had a townread on SAD despite SAD doing a lot of shit he accused other people of doing. this makes me think his townread on SAD was entirely made up and they're scum buddies. with that SAD has scum-scum interactions with all 3 flipped scum

pieguyn · Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:37 pm

ok I reread the interactions and I really don't see any reason they can't be scum x scum

like suppose the scumteam really is SAD/Titus. what the hell would they do in that situation? they're the 3 lead wagons. there's really nothing they can do to save one of them at that point and so it'd be profitable to distance the shit out of each other before one of them goes down

I'm willing to throw everything away and look elsewhere for the time being, but the last thing we need is to incorrectly clear someone

pieguyn · Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:43 pm

In post 7562, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:What are his scum-scum interactions with Generic? I must have missed them.

7460

In post 7571, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Also like I don't think Titus scum would ignore the hell out of the muffin wagon like she did towards the end there.

wasn't she V/LA?

also I don't get why. in fact I was thinking the opposite. it makes sense she'd freeze up during a lynch that would have a good chance to seal their fate

In post 7576, Prophylaxis wrote:Hey look, here's some Silver Rage.

it's referencing how zmuffin-scum has beaten me twice now. I'm still butthurt at both of those losses and I've wanted revenge ever since, hence me being sad that I'm not on his wagon

pieguyn · Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:46 pm

also if SAD is town Norl is almost certainly scum. half POE and half his jump onto SAD

pieguyn · Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:50 pm

In post 7583, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:But it is just as likely Generic as scum voted someone that was being wagoned, couldn't he? (With Arthur being one of the townies on the wagon)

In post 7583, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:You made several posts in between those two posts and you were pushing MC Maraca. Isn't it probable that Arthur as town suspected you for your posts and pushes regardless of Generic's vote on you?

yeah but there's a consistent pattern of this happening. at some point you have to make a judgment call as to what's actually going on

the more I think about this though the less sense it makes. I get the feeling I'm confbiasing my read on him

In post 7583, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Are you saying Cephrir was scum? Where are you at with Titus right now? Also, what do you think of 4359? Arthur accuses Cephrir of not agreeing with Muffin which would be rather unusual if Arthur and Muffin were buddies. Also, why is Arthur/Generic scumteam more likely than Arthur-town/Generic-scum based on Generic agreeing with Arthur and scumreading Cephrir right after their argument? I think your point about arguments that didn't go anywhere has some merit but most of Generic's arguments felt that way. For instance, his scumread on Geists D1 went nowhere. His push on DOMO early D2 went nowhere. What sets apart his interaction with Arthur in a way that they are likely scumbuddies? Why is it more likely than Generic following a townie (Arthur)?

I'm saying this fits the pattern of SAD and Generic's pushes matching each other

..........actually 4359 is a good point. and looking at his interactions with zmuffin earlier in the game again I'm starting to think SAD is actually town

the point about Generic's arguments is also a good point

I still think Titus is scum. why don't you think Titus would ignore the zmuffin lynch? it makes sense she'd freeze during a lynch that would p much seal her fate as scum. also I'm p sure she was still busy at that time so idk if she'd necessarily have a a chance to pay attention to it

pieguyn · Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:01 am

In post 7585, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am less sure about Titus. I still think she could be scum. It just seems unlikely for scum to neither bus nor derail a scumlynch but just let it happen. It just seems so unlikely that when SAD, Titus, and Muffin are the main wagons, she continues pushing Hana and Casso as scum as opposed to explain her position with regards to Muffin and Arthur or jump onto the Arthur mislynch if Arthur is town.

basically what Norl said. I don't see why Titus-scum would necessarily derail the wagon or bus in this scenario. especially given how quickly the wagon got to L-1 and then hammered

these were Titus's last few posts on D5

In post 7530, Titus wrote:
In post 7516, KoreanBBQ wrote:you guys, I still think Titus is a better lynch. SHE'S AVOIDING THIS THREAD!
Sort of yes, but not for game related reasons.

I had to fly out of town for a funeral. I started my catchups with moderating duties and then small games. Because this game was the largest, and like hell, no one's listening to me and going after the obvscum, it fell to the bottom of my priority list.

In post 7531, Titus wrote:How the hell did Bert's votes feel town?

In post 7532, Titus wrote:Skimming the VCA on day 1, KBBQ is probably town. Blah. I don't think anyone thought KBBQ was boned scum so I don't see Generic and MafiaSSK bussing. His play is so scummy though.

in between this one ^ and the next one the wagon got to L-1

In post 7546, Titus wrote:@F16, if you want meta, I am the person who knows Prophy the best although I don't make meta cases generally. I have played with him across four or five different sites. He lurks like mad when scum. What is he doing here? Lurking like mad. Bert's votes sucked major shit.

@KBBQ, Prophy, at least one of Hana/Casso are probably the scums. I don't think Hana got townfirmed while I was away so forget that. I'll give you my well-elucidated scumreads. Whether you agree is a wholly different matter.

given how quickly the wagon formed she didn't have much of a chance to bus and considering it was a deadline lynch there wasn't much of a chance for her to derail it. and it makes a lot of sense she'd kind of freeze up a bit during a flashwagon on her buddy that would probably seal her fate. it's possible the way you hammered so quickly had smth to do with it (e.g. she could have been planning to hammer) but that's speculation

the other thing is that Proph got moved to scum designated mislynch territory a while back. both Generic and zmuffin were going after him really hard and it felt like Generic was capitalizing on the paranoia about Bert and Proph's replace in to knock his slot out of the townblock. and now Titus is doing the same thing (also she's even using the exact same fking tell)

pieguyn · Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:03 am

@Titus:

how the hell is Proph lurking? it doesn't seem to me like he's doing that at all (although mb I'm kind of biased considering people have been saying I'm powerlurking this game). it seems like he's putting in a lot of effort

and what do you think of Norl's assertion that Proph would have tried really hard if scum?

pieguyn · Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:25 pm

vote: Titus

@F-16:

what are your thoughts on 2218?

@Titus:

talk to me about this

In post 7599, pieguyn wrote:
@Titus:
how the hell is Proph lurking? it doesn't seem to me like he's doing that at all (although mb I'm kind of biased considering people have been saying I'm powerlurking this game). it seems like he's putting in a lot of effort

and what do you think of Norl's assertion that Proph would have tried really hard if scum?

@Casso:

what do you think of the interactions between SAD and zmuffin?

pieguyn · Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:39 pm

I'm more interested in whether you think that post seems fake or not bc I suck at telling if posts are fake

but anyway, I'm working on another VCA and remember the zmuffin wagon way back near the end of D1? it was counter to the SC wagon and I noticed ceph jumped on the SC wagon at that time. and that was the post where he did that

I got weird as fuck vibes from that post and for some reason something connects about that post being the one where he jumps on a counterwagon to zmuffin

pieguyn · Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:01 pm

WAIT A MINUTE

In post 4807, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4804, DOMO wrote:You haven't seen a casso case? Then tell me why if he's town the brakes got slammed on his wagon in favour of a claimed doc. That's why I scumreading him so hard right now, because when push came to shove there didn't seem to be any scum interest in pushing his wagon into claim territory. That suggests scum do not want him dead. We're talking nachothor here, they would be high mislynch priority if the chance presented itself.

If you want me to be clearer with my reads, then I'm scumreading casso ssk and bert pretty hard, geists I don't trust even with a gunsmith clear, SAD and ceph are both people I feel could be scum, same with pie, norl I suspect is town but I'm not sure, muffin seems town and bro is town as fuck but he's excellent scum so I guess that makes him null.

And you can still be scum BBQ. The only thing in your favour is your self vote d1.
Maybe the shift was somehow towndriven? Perhaps the scum were the ones driving casso all along? (okay probably not)

I say that without thinking about who was doing any of this, but it is possible...

^^^ THIS IS SCUM REDIRECTING SUSPICION. HE IS SAYING SCUM WEREN'T PUSHING CASSO. HOWEVER, ZMUFFIN AND GENERIC, BOTH SCUM, WERE, AND FOR A LONG TIME AT THAT. CEPHRIR IS SCUM

when I finally finish this VCA you'll see what I mean

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 5:31 am

Spoiler: VCA ROUND 2

tl;dr: Ceph/Titus is scum and a Titus scumflip would give us a shitton of information. Casso is probably town. there's a bunch of wagons where it looks like the only possibility for scum on said wagon is SAD and that makes me lean towards SAD scum. I need to go back and look at all the SAD-zmuffin interactions again bc Titus/SAD makes the most sense but at the same time idk if SAD makes sense from an interaction standpoint. if it's not SAD then I'm waffling on Norl with an outside chance of Sakura or Proph. and if it's not any of them idk who it could be really =.=

the other thing to note is that any scumflip should clear Casso considering Casso scum -> Sakura scum

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 5:35 am

In post 7619, Casso the King of Seals wrote:There was a lot of interactions in the beginning of the game, and a lot of interaction before Muffin's lynch, but absolutely nothing in between. I thought SAD didn't think that he'd really have any sway during the last few days and was going for some last minute distancing.

Why did you decide to vote Titus?

I'm looking outside SAD for now. Titus is my top scumspect outside SAD

plus I'm starting to waffle myself to shit over SAD anyway. I'm conflicted bc based on interactions he seems town (and I lost my very first game on this site bc I epically failed at figuring out certain interactions couldn't possibly be scum x scum and I don't wanna fk the same thing up again) and his reactions seemed town at some points but everything else makes me lean scum on him

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:09 am

no we only have 3 mislynches left. it's currently 2-9 and after 3 mislynches it'll be 2-3. there's not enough room to throw Casso in there

In post 7641, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Norl

talk to me about this

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:10 am

also I'm comfortable with F-16 town except I'm getting townvibes from all my scumreads and I'm starting to fear this may be a case of one-of-my-townreads-is-wrong and I'm scared it might be F-16 but the last thing I need is to get all paranoid for no reason

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:13 am

whatever we do we should lynch everyone else before Casso bc Casso scum -> Sakura scum

unless you think Nacho-scum would deliberately piss Sakura-town off (I assume he knew about all her RL issues)

also I'm fine with MC

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 6:19 am

In post 7649, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:His reads resonate at some level. They are bold, and out of the blue, but make me think that it could be possible.

for me the main point for him-town is it seems like he's legitimately trying hard and putting effort in to figure out the gamestate and demonstrate he's town and just hasn't got there yet. or in other words he just feels town. but it's p much entirely gut and idk who else it could be at this point

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:46 pm

In post 7680, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I don't follow the logic. Why wouldn't scum-Casso want to try to mislynch town-Sakura and then back off when she reacts emotionally? I mean, this is a game and scum need to mislynch townies to win. I see no reason why Nacho would let real life interfere with a game. He backed off because Sakura's emotional reaction pointed towards a town reaction so either he saw town there and backed off (if he is town) or he knew others wouldn't let the mislynch go through (if he is scum) and pretended to see town and backed off.

I am not seeing the logic that Casso can't be scum without Sakura also being scum.

yeah it's a game but there's such a thing as going too far. Sakura was having a shitton of RL problems and she was starting to not enjoy mafia anymore and she was considering quitting. Nacho and Sakura have played together a lot and respect each other, and I assume Nacho knew about all this. Nacho-scum wouldn't deliberately take advantage of all the problems Sakura was having as part of a scum agenda knowing Sakura would ragequit

In post 7690, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:C'mon bro Pie is so town it hurts

why did you go from waffling on me to "so town it hurts"?

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:55 pm

In post 7740, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Yeah, but if he doesn't take advantage of any mislynch he can, he would be playing against his wincon, wouldn't he? That would be a downer for everyone that invested their time into the game.

Who are you thinking is scum right now (besides Titus)?

there are times when, despite being forced to play towards your wincon, there are some things you just can't do. ex: in Mobile Suit Gundam SEED I was SK and it was like D3 or so and there was an entire debate over whether to leash or lynch me and I felt like just giving up bc no one was enjoying the game bc there were some people who were being really obnoxious in said debate and there was no way I'd win anyway

given how much Nacho and Sakura respect each other, I don't think Nacho would break their whole friendship just for the sake of getting a mislynch. it's too terrible and I have faith Nacho wouldn't do that. there were a bunch of other people Nacho could have tried to run up at the deadline and I'm sure if Nacho is scum and Sakura is town he would have picked someone else

pieguyn · Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:57 pm

also I'm not sure. I'm still thinking SAD but I keep looking at his interactions with zmuffin and Generic and second guessing myself. and if Titus flips scum it'll make me second guess myself even more.

pieguyn · Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:10 am

doesn't seem like there's much going on

I'm still ok with Titus

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:58 am

I'm VT

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:01 am

anyway I did some rereading and I have a strong POE on SAD and Norl at this point. if one of them is wrong, swap out Sakura or worst case scenario BBQ

also I don't think the Casso-Sakura interactions throughout the entire game make any sense at all from Casso-scum regardless of Sakura's alignment. -> Casso town

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:01 am

didn't you say you agreed with my analysis? why the flip flop

and how'd you go from waffling on me to "so town it hurts"?

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:22 am

ok. let's suppose I'm scum and Sakura is town

first off, some backstory. Sakura was the one who introduced me to MS. I came over here bc I saw she came over here and she inspired me. she replaced in my first newbie game (which she ended up beating me as scum in and I'm still butthurt about it) and made me feel the sheer agony of defeat, and we've played several games together here which include a few where we got a bunch of people from my homesite to sign up and raid games all at once. she stuck me with a "can't read Sakura" card ever since said newbie game and she's took full advantage of it making fun of me in subsequent games. we've got many hours BS'ing around in IRC mafia. we have a lot of fun playing together and at some point I wanna hydra with her

meanwhile, I became acquainted with her own story on MS. how she used to be obvtown all the time and then how she slowly started to react worse and worse to pressure. and how she blew up and ragequit several times

now I know Sakura was starting to not enjoy mafia anymore and that she was having a lot of RL problems and getting really stressed out bc of work. and I knew how in FEA she shut down and replaced out of all her games when she got wagoned on D1. I also knew in a game offsite that was ongoing at the time that she was starting to get angry after being lynched as scum bc she was doing the exact same thing as town. it's p obvious she's starting to lose all interest in mafia and not wanna deal with it anymore, especailly with her current RL situation

so suppose I have the chance to deadline lynch her D1 of this game. I know all the stuff that's going on with her RL and how she's not enjoying this game anymore. and so if I deadline lynch her I know exactly what will happen. all of a sudden someone who's a good friend of mine and who I love playing with, the person who brought me here in the first place, isn't here anymore and has lost all motivation to play mafia. and idk how long it'd be until I get to play with her again if ever

there is no way in hell I would take that opportunity. I'd go for someone else and move on

and I think Nacho's relationship with Sakura is very similar to mine. so I don't think Nacho would do something like that just for the sake of getting a mislynch when there are so many other people he could pick

but maybe that's just me

that's the best I can explain it. if you don't get it at this point, oh fucking well

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:26 am

In post 7791, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:aren't*

no, I wanna know the reason for said progression

also the way you called it a stupid lynch sounds like you thought that's what it was before the actual lynch. you're lamenting everyone else for what you thought was a "stupid lynch" which makes it sound like you were always against her lynch. at this point it feels like you're just trying to distance from your previous stance and get towncred from her flip

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:32 am

also Casso/Sakura team doesn't work bc Sakura's early read on Casso makes no sense for a scum-scum interaction. iirc it went town -> scum -> back to town and it kept flip flopping. ex. this post:

In post 3063, Sakura Hana wrote:On further re-read, geists still hasn't done what i'd expect them to be doing by now, Also i'm retracting my townread on Casso and flipping it over. Nacho doesnt give easy townreads like that and it's bothering me like hell all.

Current reads:
Town: Maracabd, goodmorning, Bert, DOMO.
Leaning Town: Korean BBQ.
Leaning Scum: geists
Scumreads: Casso, SC.

Everyone else is null.

this doesn't seem like a read scum fakes on a scumbuddy. so given Casso-scum/Sakura-town and Casso/Sakura team are both impossible, Casso is town

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:35 am

In post 7796, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:@Pie okay I might see your point (even though I think people should play the game emotionally detached in game (versus out of game) but w/e).

this is in a similar boat to the blacklist tell. even if you don't play emotionally there's some points where you end up crossing the line. the blacklist tell is one of these in that theoretically there's no base for it but in practice it's p accurate. this is the same thing

also plz explain your read on me

pieguyn · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:37 am

I'm also wondering why you're not telling me my reads are bad despite you literally doing the exact same thing to other people who have you as scum via POE. is it bc you're trying to buddy me?

pieguyn · Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:35 am

pdodge

pieguyn · Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:16 am

@Casso:

what's your current read on Sakura?

also walk me through your Sakura read throughout the game. why were you initially scumreading her and what were your thoughts at the time where you backed off?

pieguyn · Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:23 am

pdodge. no energy atm

I'm townreading BBQ mostly bc of GIF. I don't wanna out the exact tell I'm using. there was also the SSK wagon and BBQ was one of the main people who pushed for SSK flashlynch D1

Sakura and Norl are both town. mb I just have a weak spot for "I can't do this as scum" arguments but I tend to sympathize with that bc my scumgame is complete shit. I think I'm fine with SAD but I wanna double check some things first. either way the last scum should be in {Casso, Proph, SAD} and bc I'm getting townvibes from Proph I'm leaning towards Casso x SAD

more later

pieguyn · Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:36 pm

In post 7876, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Umm wtf? Are you going to become useless again? Because weren't you the one strongly arguing that Casso can't be scum if Sakura isn't

yeah that's exactly the problem I'm having

I'm p sure about BBQ/Sakura town and Norl is town. leaving {you, Casso, Proph}. but I keep thinking Proph and Casso are town and now I'm really confused bc I can't figure out where I'm going wrong. that assumption is the first thing I'm reconsidering

that and I can't figure out any scumteam that makes a lot of sense. my first inclination is that Casso is scum and the scumteam powerbussed the shit out of each other for some god knows what reason but that seems really illogical and I don't think they'd do that. I'm trying to figure out what the hell's going on here but I literally have not had enough energy recently to do that

what's your current read on Proph?

In post 7884, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 7834, pieguyn wrote:
@Casso:
what's your current read on Sakura?

also walk me through your Sakura read throughout the game. why were you initially scumreading her and what were your thoughts at the time where you backed off?
I was initially scumreading Sakura because early play interactions didn't seem like the usual early play interactions: she was mostly letting everyone else sort out the people she usually hyper focuses on sorting out, she wasn't interacting with me the usual way based on excuses that weren't making sense (oh I'm not sheeping you based on a game where you played badly but I will sheep you while that game is going on). When I backed off, it was a strong flip: the way she responded to the pressure on her was so obviously and poignantly town that it took what was a pretty good confidence level initially and then grounded it into dust. I kept her talking just to make sure that this wasn't the game where she was able to pull that sort of thing, but all the drive was taken out of that wagon the moment she fully responded to it. I think I've had my quiet paranoid moments about her from time to time, but nothing that's added up to anything significant at all, and nothing that overpowers that initial town read.

1. what do you think about Norl's point about your post where you backed off her?
2. really? bc I saw a bunch of markers of town-her from back on D1 although mb I'm biased bc I attribute a lot of things to this being a large game (at the same time I can't read her for shit so I might be terribly in the wrong about this). it definitely felt like she was trying to sort you two and her excuse for not sheeping you came across town to me and not like smth she'd think of as scum. I'd also think you'd realize she wouldn't put as much effort in the game given her RL

pieguyn · Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:44 pm

also can someone who can read Bert tell me if he could possibly have been scum here?

bc I can't make any sense out of this. again it seems like a case of "can't do this as scum" but this is getting to the point where there's no one left and the gamestate makes more sense with him as scum. and Titus's meta read on Proph also makes sense in that context

I'm still not done reanalyzing things and I should have enough energy to look at shit again tomorrow

Sakura:

you had a scumread on bert right? can you talk to me about this?

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:27 am

aaaaaaaaaaagh I meant to get to this yesterday. post tonight

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:16 pm

finally done rereading

TOWN:
4. Ms Marangal MC Maraca (Cabd + Ms Marangal)
10. pieguyn SonOfZeus
12. Norlkaz Brian Skies
14. goodmorning
15. Sakura Hana <- Sakura is the read I've invested the most time into and I'm almost positive of her-town at this point even without the ATE. everything in her ISO seems town motivated and her willingness to be lynched in place of her townreads and the way she's not claiming is smth I attribute more to town Sakura than scum Sakura. I really don't know how to explain this bc there's very few specific posts I can link to and it's more about the body of work, but here's some really obvious ones

Spoiler: Sakura Hana

In post 1254, Sakura Hana wrote:ugh i have a feeling this is going to be like Xenologue all over again...

In post 1257, Sakura Hana wrote:Because SSK was the only scumread remaining I had, which means I have no scumreads anymore, which reminds me of Xenologue where i was townreading everyone.

In post 1265, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 1258, MC Maraca wrote:
In post 531, Sakura Hana wrote:Jabberwock's town, you're town, Lady's town, Sak's null leaning scum, DTM's null leaning scum, everyone else's null.
?
Hmm weird, i remember it differently o.o i even remember someone mentioning that it was ok for me to have no reads considering I had no hydra partner like the others.

this exchange doesn't make much sense from Sakura-scum especially when she forgot what actually happened in xenologue and Cabd had to go and correct her. the follow-up on it in 3440 also felt town bc it indicates she wasn't making it up

In post 2125, Sakura Hana wrote:Town: pieguyn, Maracabd, geists, Casso, goodmorning.
Null: Everyone else.
No scumreads.

In post 3008, Sakura Hana wrote:I literally dont know where else to go, I've said that already in an earlier post.

having no scumreads is a really ballsy road to take for Sakura-scum. yeah Sakura's scumgame is all about balls, but the thing with this is there's no sense of manipulation here. mb I'm biased bc this is a large game, but this indicates her first priority is to legitimately trying to sort people as opposed to manipulating the gamestate and is in line with the way I'd expect her to sort people as town (she's sorting all the people she knows first and scum Sakura has a history of faking paranoia on me instead of immediately townreading me)

In post 3063, Sakura Hana wrote:On further re-read, geists still hasn't done what i'd expect them to be doing by now, Also i'm retracting my townread on Casso and flipping it over. Nacho doesnt give easy townreads like that and it's bothering me like hell all.

Current reads:
Town: Maracabd, goodmorning, Bert, DOMO.
Leaning Town: Korean BBQ.
Leaning Scum: geists
Scumreads: Casso, SC.

Everyone else is null.

Sakura's read on Nacho D1 flip flopped several times which again doesn't make much sense from Sakura-scum. the way she kept flipping it was also genuine. the first town->scum flip was bc Nacho doesn't give out easy townreads which is smth I can agree with and smth I'd expect her to notice. the second scum->town flip was bc she couldn't disprove Mara's theory about Nacho and Thor discussing reads in their QT which, although it seems way too easy and I disagree, doesn't feel like smth scum Sakura would do

there was also the whole "ffery trajectory analysis" deal which was discussed earlier. plus she was pushing both ffery and Nacho at the same time which almost seems too insane as scum even for Sakura (yeah she was pushing them. it's not as strong as I'd expect from her but I attribute that to her RL as opposed to her being scum)

I can try to explain more if enough people bother me

13. KoreanBBQ (GuyInFreezer + Nero Cain) <- BBQ is town mostly bc of GIF. also, he was the one who suggested SSK flashlynch D1. this is heavily meta-based and so I don't wanna outright clear him just bc of this. also, the complete lack of interactions with zmuffin is worrying me a lot and is the exact same shit as what happened in IN. so if smth doesn't add up within my scumreads, swap in BBQ

^ these are all the townreads I feel comfortable banking. leaving

3. Casso the King of Seals (Nachomamma8 + Thor665)
7. Prophylaxis Bert roflcopter
16. Ser Arthur Dayne pitoli

Proph might be town. he's put in a good amount of effort and I still wanna say Bert is town. the way he was playing here seems way different from his scumgames, he was way more involved, and he felt really transparent and sincere which indicates town-Bert. I'm p sure there were also some instances of Generic buddying Bert. the only thing giving me reservations is Titus's meta read on Proph. it's not definitive but it's enough to make me move elsewhere for now

leaving Casso and SAD. there are a bunch of reasons to townread both of them. however, at this point I have solid body of work reads on everyone else whereas with these two it's only specific instances of town. I've revisited the SAD-zmuffin interactions and I don't see any reason they can't be distancing. afaik the main point was 4359 but I'm p sure this works even if SAD and zmuffin were distancing.

Casso was one of the factors in SSK lynch and he also pushed zmuffin really hard, but I'm p sure it makes sense to bus in both scenarios. SSK would almost certainly end up dead eventually and it also makes sense he'd try to lynch SSK and plan a fakeclaim to cause confusion at deadline. zmuffin and Nacho have been scum twice in the past and both times they defended each other, and it may be worth it to bus just bc people wouldn't be expecting it and it might set off a red flag for all the people who have seen them as scum before

as for scumteams, I'm p sure SAD + Casso makes sense even with Casso's push on SAD bc it could be an extra boost towards endgame. SAD + Proph also makes sense. I was really confused bc I couldn't figure out any valid scumteams, but I think I'm WIFOM'ing myself to shit and overthinking it. at this point SAD is at the bottom of my POE list and I'm having a lot of trouble seeing a scenario where he isn't scum, so I wanna lynch him today

vote: SAD

I still wanna go back and look at the dymanic on D5 but this is where I'm at atm

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:45 pm

here's a bunch of posts where Generic sucks up to Bert

In post 2412, Generic wrote:Ok. Looks like the majority of what I missed recently is the bert show.

Good to see you are town bert, you are tossing stuff everywhere and have minimal focus.

I don't understand your point against me though so I hope you aren't expecting a response. But when you are ready to wingate this with me we can bring down scum mara again.

In post 2626, Generic wrote:
In post 2623, Bert wrote:Pie's responses to Gen feel off
In what way bert?

I ask cos so e of my push was complete bollocks due to a misrep of the information. I happen to agree something is off though so interested to hear your thoughts.

Also concur on the SAD comment.

In post 5042, Generic wrote:
In post 5040, Bert wrote:I liked your #5027 and am satisfied with it.
Right well in that case, I want a town pal that isn't DOMO. No offence to him but his tonfoil hat is bigger than mine and its getting tiring trying to read his posts.

But I cant wingate this one up with you bert cos I don't trust you. Your actions have been off, they just haven't been off like desperado and nacho... but you are still in the ballpark with them there.

That's the main thing im hating about this game. Only person ive been able to see familiar ground from is mara and she has pissed off and left me alone in this. there are you bert, nacho, desperado, tammy, mara and to a lesser extent hana that I have a feel for in terms of approaches/mindsets/attitude towards games. Tammy isn't here, nacho, you and desp are acting weird and im left having to figure out players like pie and DOMO on my own.

But on the bright side bert I haven't randomly claimed my role, so im improving

In post 5049, Generic wrote:
In post 5043, Bert wrote:
In post 5042, Generic wrote:But I cant wingate this one up with you bert cos I don't trust you.
You didn't trust me in Wingate either until the bitter end. Same with Purple. Where was this undivided passion to work with other players when I played with you in Purple or Wingate?

its always there, I just also have ridiculous mistrust of everybody. Short of being cleared it takes a lot for me to trust someone. In we the purple nacho had to be an unkillable PR creator and I STILL wasn't trusting him fully

Mara I would trust in this because she has 'colo' telled for me. play another 6 or 7 games with me and I will be able to do the same for you. Right now though you merely suck. but the game is young and we are both still alive so lets see where we get this time.

I trusted you just before dying,,, so maybe that's why bert... you are a death wish

In post 5267, Generic wrote:My vote will move if bert (or GM now) can sell me casso as scum over desperado.

Bert ignored this request to my knowledge. But desperado appears to be on shutdown. Last game I accused him of being scum I think we argued for two pages. Here? He seems to have given up.

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:48 pm

oh not to mention Proph was the one who derailed the Titus/SAD wagons onto zmuffin

I'm fine with Casso too. SAD and Casso are at the bottom of my POE list

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:52 pm

also I could potentially see Casso + BBQ if SAD ends up being wrong

I keep having this feeling where I stop believing SAD would actually flip scum. but the last 4 times I've had this the person actually flipped scum so

pieguyn · Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:02 pm

atm yeah although that's not explicitly why I'm scumreading him. I keep wanting to call Casso town bc of SSK and zmuffin but I could see Casso powerbussing the shit out of his team and so I don't wanna write him off as town just for that

also I'm positive Generic was supposed to go to endgame and given he got caught by the JK there's no way Casso could have planned around that. it's possible he planned to bus only SSK and zmuffin and then got screwed over by the JK

pieguyn · Thu Mar 06, 2014 6:46 pm

it's Norl, me, and Casso. that should be L-2

In post 7937, Sakura Hana wrote:Not buying it, Casso has played in a pro-town way tbh, and I think you're probably getting intimidated by Thor's posts and sarcasm. Even if Generic's JK was unplanned i don't think Casso would continue to bus the whole team specially with how heavily suspected he is already it's pretty suicide.

the problem I'm having is there's no one else left. I have townreads of varying degrees on everyone else leaving SAD and Casso. if Casso is town it's SAD/Proph and I keep thinking Proph is town

also why are you voting Norl

pieguyn · Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:19 pm

I probably won't be around at deadline. I'm still ok with SAD and Casso. I keep hoping SAD is town but I have townreads on just about everyone else at this point and the last thing I need is to waffle myself to shit for no reason

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:45 pm

vote: Casso

SAD town means that, given the dynamic D5, Proph is town. both wagons were on town and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. given he was voting back and forth for the first part of D5 I don't think this makes sense from a scum POV

the paranoia in me wants to test Mara/GM's daytalk again bc I keep thinking everyone is town but it's probably just paranoia

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:47 pm

wait do you all think Proph bussed zmuffin?

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:53 pm

inb4 there were only 4 scum and we're doing all this partner hunting for nothing

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:16 pm

In post 6902, Prophylaxis wrote:
unvote, vote SAD

Larger wagon; Titus can wait.

In post 7030, Prophylaxis wrote:Bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote Titus

In post 7326, Prophylaxis wrote:GENERIC INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.
Code: Select all
geist: ||||||||||||||||||--------
Casso: ||||||||||||||||||-----------
Msmrg: ||||||||||||||---------
F16FF: |||||||||||||||---
Proph: |||||||||||||||---------
pigyn: |||||||||||------
Norlk: ||--
Korea: |||||||||||-------
gdmrn: ||||||-
Sakur: |||||||||||--
SerAD: |||||||---
zMufn: -
Titus: |||||||||||||||||||||||--------
MafiaSSK
: |||||--- (for context)

Breaking this down:

F-16 has been upgraded to a townie read. My initial read on him was pretty weak - basically a self conscious response to "Are you town?", IIRC. I liked the effort he was putting into his posts, and Generic tried to buddy up with F-16 in the early game.

In post 1858, Generic wrote: If you want a good sheeting bet f16 is the most town so far but his town piling is at a snails pace right now.
My gut *wants* to say Casso is town - the MafiaSSK interactions with "Why is this wagon forming on X" looked pretty good, but one thing I noticed with Generic is that he kept SSK as his personal punching bag - constant voting and unvoting, though he didn't have too many interactions with Generic (most of those |s were Generic hopping on him). I noticed that Generic constantly voted and unvoted Casso as well, so that gives me some pause. The number of interactions there makes me think that he's probably.. town? I don't think he's going to be lynched toDay or for any other Days to come, so my gut wants me to sort him out to "weak town" and move on from there.

Generic had a spat with pieguyn during my latter skim of his ISO, and accused him of CFTWR, IIRC. I had some tabs queued up with potential interactions to look at, but I closed them accidentally and too lazy to hunt them down. Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused.

Generic has little interactions with Norlkaz - want to look there, too. Norlkaz is pretty much the epitome of null this game - can't get much from Llamarble's strange posting style.

Sakura Hana had some Generic interactions scattered around, but again, my gut wants me to clear her based on SSK's comment. I don't really remember much - I'm slotting her as the same spot as Casso.

Ser Arthur Dayne is.. ugh. I really wish I read the thread, when talking to him. He's pulled off several scumtells but something earlier felt like righteous indignation - hard to fake. Going to fencesit here, now. He had some scattershot Generic interactions but again, I forgot about those ones too.

Generic basically had no interaction with zMuffin, and due to that he's become my strongest scumread. None with SSK, either.

Cephrir had the most interactions with Generic (they had a spat somewhere between Day 2) and that gives me pause regarding Titus. Ultimately, I'd like Titus to be lynched at some point because I need her flip to help me figure out the game, and
she's not doing flat-out anything
. Additionally, I don't think I can read her too well and like Ms Marangal said, the reason why I want her to be lynched is a mix between policy and scumread.

Is there any reason why zMuffinMan isn't being pressured? Like, SAD mentioned "Generic has no interactions with zMuffinMan" and no one really followed up on it.

To clarify for the mod -

unvote, vote zMuffinMan

If a Titus wagon re-forms, I'm also willing to revote her to figure out the game state, but that's a ton of interactions with Cephrir.
-----

In post 7317, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote: Everytime I see your "votal analysis," I feel an irresistible urge to insult you. I am really a bad person, lol.
Ugh, how do I explain my analysis methods.

One of the things I like to do in games is to look for lynches that I have a cluster of town reads/people that flipped town on.

If I see mostly town on a lynch, and that lynch has stalled out, chances are pretty good that the person wagoned is scum - because why wouldn't scum want to help want to run them up?

It's the same type of logic I use when analyzing, say, a TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN wagon. If the person being wagonned is probably town, and I have a unknown read in the middle of a cluster of town reads, I want that person shot. Scum will be on town lynches to accelerate the mislynch, and scum will usually be on the back end of scum lynches.

The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is - because over the course of the game, voting is the hardest thing to fake.

Words are the easiest thing to fake.

I don't mind mislynching the occasional player when the argument against it is "it might be 6+ town in a row one out of 250 wagons!!1!" because that is rare.

And if you guys (Titus, zMuffin, F-16) want to continue to dismiss is as being 'naive', then be my guest - it's simply how I play, and it's another tool in the toolbox along with interaction and behavioral analysis.

In post 7339, Prophylaxis wrote:
In post 7332, zMuffinMan wrote:proph

do you usually hunt (or can you show me where you've previously hunted) for scum based solely on the
number
of "interactions" with flipped scum? also, i gather you have experience with generic - is the idea that generic would have fewer interactions with his buddies based on meta or is it purely an assertion?

sad wrote:See like this feels fake and ooc
did you actually read proph's post?

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.
I mean I can pull up a game where I did this recently:

For context, Lucky, Fonti, and BillD were the scum team. Fonti had no interactions with the flipped scum, and BillD had only casual mentions. Lucky shot particularly high because the flipped scum was bussing him.

I Ctrl-F'd an ISO of Generic in a MTGS game (Majora's Mask) and he did not interact with his scumbuddies that much.

I'm scumreading you because the
scumteam did not interact with you at all
. I Ctrl-F'd "zm" when reading SSK's ISO and I only got a nested quote from you. Same with Generic, IIRC. Scum that go out of their way to avoid interacting with each other are probably scum with no confidence in their acting ability.

It's really just basic interaction analysis.

In post 7333, zMuffinMan wrote:side note,

proph wrote:Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused
this looks like scum trying to set up a back door into later changing his read on pieguy and doesn't look like a genuine thought process. "i'm reading pie as town, but since some others are calling him scum, i could be wrong"
Uh, if my townread on someone is solely based on the minuscule chunk of game that I've read and people are calling him scum now, I'm confused!

Now I know that something went on in the middle of the thread that I did not read that caused people to change their view of pieguyn, and I can go look at that.

In post 7334, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 7331, Prophylaxis wrote:If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?
Hmm? You should know by now I do reads independent of each other, because people always fall into the predicting-scum-based-on-scumreads that haven't actually flipped which is stupid. For a good example see Pieguy in this game.
Fair enough, I guess.

Proph was bouncing back and forth between the SAD and Titus wagons and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. if he's scum idk how much sense this makes given he was originally perfectly fine with SAD/Titus. his trajectory on zmuffin and subsequent interactions also felt legitimate. also people were making fun of his "votal analysis" and I think it'd be even harder to fake this with the knowledge other people were already skeptical of your scumhunting methods

then later on he went for Casso really hard which makes Proph make even less sense as scum if Casso is scum. there were also all the posts where Generic was buddying Bert

on the other hand, even if Casso is scum I can see the Casso push making sense as an extra boost towards endgame and there was also Titus's meta read (but this can be attributed to him being from MTGS and this not being his homesite). what do you think?

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:54 pm

In post 8000, Sakura Hana wrote:Actually... I guess the answer's just plain obvious and i just don't want to admit it =/

what does this mean?

also idk how I feel about you sheeping me. I was thinking this would be more like comparing notes

In post 8001, KoreanBBQ wrote:Hmm I wanna test something
gm and sakura can you vote casso for a bit?

what's the point of this? I don't want another fucking 1515 right now

actually

unvote

i don't give a fuck if this is just paranoia. i don't want this right now

pieguyn · Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:18 pm

what happened in AOT? I don't remember smth like this happening there

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:30 pm

@Sakura:

what does this mean?

In post 8000, Sakura Hana wrote:Actually... I guess the answer's just plain obvious and i just don't want to admit it =/

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:02 pm

In post 33, Generic wrote:
In post 32, KoreanBBQ wrote:
In post 17, Generic wrote:
vote tammy

Because she hates me.
but I hate you, why are you voting her over us?
I've only played with GIF, and I would hope he doesn't hate me after I dragged his sorry ass over the finish line when we were scum together and he got everyone to mislynch me in the next one.
So technically he should love me.

In post 291, Generic wrote:
In post 287, KoreanBBQ wrote:
In post 33, Generic wrote:
In post 32, KoreanBBQ wrote:
In post 17, Generic wrote:
vote tammy

Because she hates me.
but I hate you, why are you voting her over us?
I've only played with GIF, and I would hope he doesn't hate me after I dragged his sorry ass over the finish line when we were scum together and he got everyone to mislynch me in the next one.
So technically he should love me.
I enjoyed every second of that moment!
Which moment? the scum win or the mislynch? :p

In post 3886, Generic wrote:Fair enough Korean, at least you are willing to stand by your actions. That's what I was interested in seeing.

unvote

In post 3904, Generic wrote:
In post 3897, KoreanBBQ wrote:I wouldn't be surprised of MafiaSSK is a mafia doctor given with the full vig flip.

P-Edit: I was the spy remember?
Forgot you were in there GIF. You were the ducking reason I got mislynched there!

I got shit for daring to suggest majiffy doesn't know what he's doing.

In post 6168, Generic wrote:And there we finally get to my point.

Titus. Reread that post and consider two people in that one slot. Then tell me if a soft claim of vig is the only explanation.

In post 6170, Generic wrote:
In post 6169, Sakura Hana wrote:Do you think he would have said "I have permission to kill Hana" instead of just keeping quiet and shooting me during the Night?
Titus i suggest you go back to FEA and ISO Nero.
Fuck you hana! Making the point in a tenth of the time and with far fewer words!

here's a bunch of posts where Generic buddies BBQ

the problem is I'm p sure he did the same thing to Sakura given that last post. so idk if we can actually tell anything from this

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:05 pm

also the timing here is a bit different from his interactions with Bert. this was mostly at the start of the game and it was mostly references to a previous game, whereas with Bert it was more spread out iirc and there was more straight up sucking up as opposed to talking about a previous game. idk if this means anything and I still haven't checked Generic/Sakura

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:30 pm

In post 3816, Generic wrote:Sakura hana threatens a rage quit and you all panic lynch stuffed crust?

Did they even get any time to claim?

Anyway, as annoying as that was I will be rather disappointed if hana did that as a ploy to evade lynch, having aged in a few games with her I like to believe she is a more legitimate person than something so unsportsmanlike (and since I have been in a similar position myself in a previous game I cannot be too judgemental) so now that you are here for another day phase hans please give your vurrent reads on the remaining players.

I'm two for two incidentally, if we are keeping count on reads. So it's looking good for mcmaraca and f16 as town in my eyes.

In post 3817, Generic wrote:* having PLAYED in a few games with her.

Although I think I have aged visibly after games with nacho and bert

In post 3824, Generic wrote:Can I see what you WERE thinking please?

I did see you say you were gonna revise the reads, but you were saying you were busy day 1, avoided being lynched and now are throwing all the reads out and saying you need to start over.

Had you not blacklist telled (love that term btw) I would be more feeling a case of stalling here.

Have you no thoughts on your wagon and the manner people left it?

In post 3863, Generic wrote:
In post 3858, Sakura Hana wrote:I think the 3 main people that wanted SC dead all day long was me, GiF/Nero and Ceph.

Generic, why trust so much my whatever-tell and make remarks on "If it wasn't for that tell etc." When we haven't played together near as long enough for you to know me well enough wrt to it?

It's called faith in humanity.

If you want me to believe you are SUCH a petty individual that to survive a day 1 lynch as scum you will fake a rage quit with the 'woe is me the world is against me' schtick then that says more about your own self esteem than my personal view on such actions.

Bert and nacho will point to wingate where I walked the mod kill line over the same sort of tell through utter frustration of it all and RL issues... And guess what, I was town.

So I don't have to see you personally do it to draw from my own experiences... And I've seen you as scum AND town, you were more lurky and Whiney when you were town.

In post 6170, Generic wrote:
In post 6169, Sakura Hana wrote:Do you think he would have said "I have permission to kill Hana" instead of just keeping quiet and shooting me during the Night?
Titus i suggest you go back to FEA and ISO Nero.
Fuck you hana! Making the point in a tenth of the time and with far fewer words!

In post 6564, Generic wrote:
In post 6563, pieguyn wrote:no it says she doesn't want to use cheap tactics to be townread. from what I could tell the "meta" she was referring to here is said fatalism + ATE. she doesn't wanna be townread bc of that, aka cheap tactics
Unfortunately, human nature is that we attribute certain tactics or actions to certain mjndsets.

And because of that my opinion of hana going forwards from this game rests on her flip. I believe her to be above a fake blacklist tell. Hence I have her as a townread.
Her subsequent play has strengthened that view, but I won't deny that it started there.

In post 6617, Generic wrote:
In post 6615, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 6613, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 6610, Sakura Hana wrote:I promised this yesterday.

Vote: Sakura

And so I shall.
You could also be double the useful and vote SAD.
I'd rather vote Titus or Proph

In post 6616, Sakura Hana wrote:Or you could tell me why SAD is scum.
Hana is obvtown

a lot of this is based on Sakura's reaction to being ran up. I'm having paranoia here bc if Sakura was scum with Casso the whole thing was obviously planned in the first place and it'd make sense he'd wanna draw attention to it. but overall there's a lot of the general type of sucking up here he did to Bert

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:38 pm

I'd say the odd one out here is BBQ which fucking sucks bc I really really think BBQ is town. I found a really awesome tell on GIF and if he's scum here that means said tell is wrong. plus Sakura makes the most sense as a potential Casso partner. either way none of these are as definitive as the Bert interactions

pieguyn · Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:49 pm

mara you have a hydra with GIF right? do you all use a QT?

@Sakura:

talk to me about your Proph read. why did you have him as scum and how did my evidence of Proph-town destroy your townread on Casso?

pieguyn · Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:02 pm

BBQ is a terrible lynch and I hate hate hate how a bunch of people are all of a sudden fine with lynching him (especially Casso). whatever you all do

DON'T BE IDIOTS AND LYNCH SOMEONE OUT OF NOWHERE. THAT IS THE LAST THING ANYONE NEEDS ON PROBABLY THE DAY BEFORE LYLO AND I DON'T GET HOW THE FUCK YOU ALL ARE FINE WITH LYNCHING SOMEONE BEFORE DISCUSSION IS OVER. OH MY FUCKING GOD

I still wanna lynch Casso. I have townreads on literally everyone else. idk who his partner is and I don't care and I don't have enough time or energy right now to figure out who's playing an amazing scumgame. I'm waffling back and forth on all 3 remaining players and it's getting to the point where I legit think there might only be 4 scum even tho it's probably impossible. I can't see any scenario where Casso isn't scum and I'd far prefer to go for the sure bet right now as opposed to chancing a lynch on someone else

vote: Casso

@Sakura:

do you still think Casso is scum and if so do you think Casso is bussing BBQ? and if so what happened to you saying casso wouldn't bus his entire scumteam?

pieguyn · Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:13 pm

I think I'm satisfied with ruling out BBQ as a possible Casso partner. Casso pushing BBQ lynch (especially after pushing SAD lynch in a similar way) makes me think they're not teammates especially with BBQ pushing Casso lynch for a while now

with this in mind I think I can bring myself to be confident enough in my GIF read to call BBQ town

so lynch Casso -> {Proph, Sakura} lynchpool should be enough to win

pieguyn · Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:14 pm

@GIF:

how sure are you about Sakura town?

pieguyn · Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:59 pm

town: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=35988

scum: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=32348
this is the most recent one I've played to completion on MS but since then there was a scumgame where I was in a hydra and we got replaced and then another one where I replaced out. there's also one offsite
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=36919
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=39225
http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/t/173126

pieguyn · Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:01 pm

Sakura plz answer my question

In post 8085, pieguyn wrote:
@Sakura:
do you still think Casso is scum and if so do you think Casso is bussing BBQ? and if so what happened to you saying casso wouldn't bus his entire scumteam?

pieguyn · Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:22 pm

In post 8103, Casso the King of Seals wrote:post

hey Nacho speaking of SAD I have a question

I was looking at some old SAD games near D7 end and remember xenoblade? I'm sure you do and I'm p sure you misread the fuck out of him in that game. why did you feel so sure about him scum here after that kind of misread? or was that just you pushing a mislynch

and if you're town, what you're doing is the best way to lose games. you're playing up paranoia about just about every single person here besides Sakura. the whole point of POE'ing the game is that you DON'T NEED TO GO BACK AND RECONSIDER YOUR TOWNREADS EVEN IF SOME OF THE REMAINING PEOPLE FLIP TOWN. if you do that, it defeats the whole idea of POE. if you have a townblock of 5 people and then everyone besides them and 2 other people flip town, you don't go back and fucking lynch through the townblock, you lynch the remaining people. your behavior here is consistent with scum needing to push mislynch after mislynch in order to win as opposed to town uncertainty. this is also the exact opposite of how you navigated the endgame in Mistakes UPick where you were honing in on one person (catboi) and is consistent with what I remember you doing in marketplace as scum

Sakura makes the most sense as your partner bc running her to L-1, staging a breakdown and a shitton of scum theater about it, and causing chaos at deadline seems like a legitimate scum tactic and smth you would do. and you two are sticking together and not expressing much suspicion of each other (and when I pressure Sakura about it she keeps ignoring me)

my read on you is entirely POE. I've outright said you're scum bc I can't see anyone else as scum, so why are you asking me this question? this entire paragraph feels like you're trying to smokescreen me by asking me a bunch of questions that have nothing to do with my actual point and there's ATF in there to boot. the constant questions about "who's my partner" also make sense in this context

In post 8105, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 7947, pieguyn wrote:the problem I'm having is there's no one else left. I have townreads of varying degrees on everyone else leaving SAD and Casso. if Casso is town it's SAD/Proph and I keep thinking Proph is town
After SAD flipped town, you should have gone into reassessing mode. Why haven't you? Why aren't you more heavily considering Proph-scum?

In post 7988, pieguyn wrote:SAD town means that, given the dynamic D5, Proph is town. both wagons were on town and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. given he was voting back and forth for the first part of D5 I don't think this makes sense from a scum POV
Why not? I had to have done the same D1: derail BBQ and SC wagons onto Sakura (town or scum) onto scum. Do you really think it was Proph that swung the wagon onto Muffin, and why?

In post 7998, pieguyn wrote:Proph was bouncing back and forth between the SAD and Titus wagons and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. if he's scum idk how much sense this makes given he was originally perfectly fine with SAD/Titus. his trajectory on zmuffin and subsequent interactions also felt legitimate.
Why don't you think it was possible he thought the push on Muffin wouldn't get through? Why did the trajectory on Muffin + subsequent interactions feel nor-scumbuddy?

In post 8027, pieguyn wrote:I found a really awesome tell on GIF and if he's scum here that means said tell is wrong.
I don't think your tell is accurate. Take it away, are you still confident GiF is town?

I have no energy for mafia atm. I have strong townreads on BBQ, Sakura, and Proph and I need to figure out where I'm going terribly wrong and I literally do not have enough time and energy to figure this out right now. I won't tolerate any lynch besides you today bc you're literally the last one left and I was confident enough about those reads that I can say there's no way 2 of them are wrong

if Proph is scum, what was he trying to do there? if he wanted a mislynch, he could have just stayed on SAD/Titus, and on the other hand, if he was bussing, he probably would have gone for zmuffin sooner instead of bouncing back and forth for a while. it could be a bus but not sure atm

it is possible, but why don't you go one step further and try to figure out IF that's actually what he was thinking or not? there was support all around for a zmuffin lynch and given how low he was on a lot of people's POE lists he was almost certainly going to be lynched at some point. this feels like you're trying to smokescreen me by asking me questions I can't answer. the trajectory is kind of hard to explain bc it's mostly gut but all of his posts seemed like they were coming from an angle of trying to figure out zmuffin's alignment and his push was matched with a solid level of aggression as the evidence built up.

no, but why should I take away a tell that's 100%? or are you just trying to manipulate me into following you on BBQ?

In post 8106, Casso the King of Seals wrote:What happened to the counterwagon tell? How exactly did you drop that strong towntell so... easily? Why did you stop pushing Sakura?

Nacho what the hell

you ask me why I'm not reevaluating my reads, but then when Proph does

that exact same thing

you start attacking him for it?

this makes no sense. this whole thing feels like you're just BS'ing as opposed to actually trying to figure shit out

In post 8119, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I have had moments of paranoia, sure, but in the end the townSakura that showed up here was the old town Sakura levels that you couldn't quite reach before. I have seen scumgames where you've attempted to replicate it, and you've come close, but you haven't been able to reach it quite yet.

Which is why pie's read on you is worrying: he should be able to see that better than anyone else.

why do you think the fact I'm not sure about Sakura is worrying considering

1. you have experience with me and Sakura in the same game and how I'm always paranoid as fuck about her? like really? I find it impossible that you actually believe I can read Sakura "better than anyone else". remember pick & ban? I'm almost positive there was some discussion about how I'm always paranoid of her in that game and you were there to see it (and I know you saw it bc you commented about my Sakura push in that game and said I was doing a "bangup job scumhunting").
2. she's not even my first pick for 2nd scum right now. she's just the one who makes the most sense as your partner. and the reason I don't have her as first pick is, OH LOOK AT THAT, I had such a strong townread on her (I even posted a massive towncase on her earlier)

tl;dr: you're asking a bunch of questions to lead everyone around in a circle so you don't get lynched. plus there is so much cognitive dissonance here it's not even funny and I get the feeling you're just BS'ing at this point. and not to mention I'm way better at reading GIF than I am at Sakura. so the fact that you're selectively discounting my GIF read and then holding ME to a BOP of reading SAKURA is, guess what? scummy as fuck. die :>

pieguyn · Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:27 pm

or for anyone who's watching you can just look at this part

In post 8123, pieguyn wrote:
In post 8119, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I have had moments of paranoia, sure, but in the end the townSakura that showed up here was the old town Sakura levels that you couldn't quite reach before. I have seen scumgames where you've attempted to replicate it, and you've come close, but you haven't been able to reach it quite yet.

Which is why pie's read on you is worrying: he should be able to see that better than anyone else.
why do you think the fact I'm not sure about Sakura is worrying considering

1. you have experience with me and Sakura in the same game and how I'm always paranoid as fuck about her? like really? I find it impossible that you actually believe I can read Sakura "better than anyone else". remember pick & ban? I'm almost positive there was some discussion about how I'm always paranoid of her in that game and you were there to see it (and I know you saw it bc you commented about my Sakura push in that game and said I was doing a "bangup job scumhunting").
2. she's not even my first pick for 2nd scum right now. she's just the one who makes the most sense as your partner. and the reason I don't have her as first pick is, OH LOOK AT THAT, I had such a strong townread on her (I even posted a massive towncase on her earlier)

he literally just made this up. HE KNOWS I AM THE WORST PERSON EVER AT READING SAKURA AND YET SAYS I SHOULD BE ABLE TO READ HER "BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE". HE LITERALLY JUST MADE THAT UP

pieguyn · Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:29 pm

@Sakura:

In post 8085, pieguyn wrote:
@Sakura:
do you still think Casso is scum and if so do you think Casso is bussing BBQ? and if so what happened to you saying casso wouldn't bus his entire scumteam?

and what do you think of how Nacho is saying I should be able to read you "better than anyone else" while trying to discount my GIF read?

pieguyn · Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:52 pm

pdodge no energy atm

pieguyn · Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:34 pm

In post 8128, Ms Marangal wrote:God... why do I want to lynch Pie everytime he talks..

so, you think Sakura is still town?

and Nero/GIF?

I have no idea. I have townreads on all of {Sakura, BBQ, Proph} and then there's Casso. so either there's 4 scum or one of my townreads is wrong and I have no time or energy to figure out which one it is. gun to the head, yes on both and Proph for potential Casso partner

In post 8132, Sakura Hana wrote:No, I actually think you and BBQ are scum, because apparently you forgot about your "Amazing Tell" that you found for me as well.

my tell on you is still there but at this point I have to consider the possibility one of you broke my tells. I really don't wanna out it but it's smth I posted in my towncase on you (and then after further research I found out it works as a tell) so I can if I really need to

pieguyn · Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:40 pm

In post 8131, goodmorning wrote:I think Sakura is Town.

mind explaining why?

pieguyn · Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:27 pm

In post 8142, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Why was I so confident when I found SAD scum as opposed to Xenoblade? Well, in Xenoblade, SAD was a lurkfucking and didn't do shit and the reason I found him scummy was thanks to a faulty POE process where I was town reading all of the scum. Here, he had shit interactions with scum and was scummy in an active way, and thus I felt a hell of a lot better about it.

In Mistakes uPick, I lost. In Marketplace, I pushed hard for mislynches in a pretty systematic way until LyLo when I was sitting on my hands and waiting for an opportunity to quickhammer. My zeroing and killing time was when I zeroed in on and killed SAD, but that didn't result in good things so why exactly do you expect me to continue playing in the same exact way? Every single person alive was a townread for me at some point: considering I'm looking for two scum, that should be a bit of a problem, don't you think?

You are POEing me as one scum when two need to be found. I am not scum. This means there's something fundamentally wrong with your process so of course I'm going to challenge you on it: when you don't feel good about me being scum when you read my posts and when you have absolutely no idea who my partner would be, there's a problem and you should be reanalyzing instead of just going along with the lynch.

Why is it an invalid move for Proph to move off from SAD/Titus and distance for a little while? Why would he move onto Muffin earlier if he was looking to bus?

I'm asking you questions you can't answer because they're holes in your read.

I'm asking you to take away the tell because it's probably not 100%.

I am asking Proph where he made switches and why he made them: one of the great parts about reevaluating is that it's supposed to be fairly transparent as opposed to switches that just happen. My problems with the changes obviously aren't because there were changes, but because there were changes for no reason.

You know Sakura better than anyone else in this game. I would expect you to be able to see what makes her town, what makes her scum better than anyone else in the game regardless of whether you have a tendency to scumread her or not.

I feel fine with you being scum bc of your posts and the reason I don't know your partner is bc I literally haven't put in enough analysis to figure it out. where'd you get the idea I don't? bc I feel like you're putting words in my mouth

it's not impossible but if he was planning to bus zmuffin he probably would have done so immediately given that's his agenda. but instead it came across as genuine. however, I could see it as a bus especially bc the whole point is to look as natural as possible

you're one of the people I read p much entirely by POE. if it reaches late game, everyone else is town, and I haven't seen anything especially town from you, then I assume you're scum. it's how I pegged you in both IN and marketplace and it's also how I read ppl like zmuffin. the point is, you're asking me questions about what I find especially scummy in your posts when I'VE ALREADY SAID IT'S ENTIRELY POE AND IT'S BC EVERYONE ELSE IS MORE TOWN THAN YOU. this is what I mean when I say "leading everyone around in circles" - you're asking me smth that's completely unrelated to my actual point bc I don't have an answer for it. this is scum motivated thought

what the fuck @ last sentence? if I have a tendency to scumread her, I obviously don't know what makes her town or what makes her scum bc if I did I'd be able to read her every time. so this literally contradicts itself. and on top of that YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE WITH BOTH ME AND SAKURA IN THE SAME GAME and how I tend to misread the shit out of her and am still paranoid as fuck about her even if I have a townread on her. so why would you think this?

pieguyn · Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:32 pm

also I realized smth

zmuffin's scum MO = hard bussing. him to his entire team in death's diner, him to BRO in IN, Nacho and him to DoctorPepper in marketplace 3.

who did he start pushing immediately after he came into the game?

idk if this means anything considering he could have been manipulating his meta, but still

pieguyn · Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:34 pm

In post 8158, KoreanBBQ wrote:Also I've been pretty clear about where my stances are. Started the day with thinking you/casso and now thinking of {you > sakura > casso}.

why Sakura over Casso?

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:28 pm

remember this wagon from IN:

In post 900, borkjerfkin wrote:no vc last night on account of i was drunk

Votecount 1.8

[3]
MafiaSSK
(
zMuffinMan
,
BROseidon
,
Psychlone
)
[2]
BROseidon
(
thenewearth
,
mastin2
)
[2]
pieguyn
(
Varsoon
,
Mac
)
[2]
thenewearth
(
pieguyn
,
thezmon221
)
[1]
Morph the Cat
(
waynegg
)

[3] Not Voting (
MafiaSSK
,
Morph the Cat
,
Ghostly Penguin
)

With 13 alive, it is 7 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-11-14 13:00:00)

Nacho and zmuffin were both scum and they all piled on this wagon to manipulate the VCA. so that wagon in no way implies Casso/Proph team is impossible and we shouldn't discount the possibility justbc of that

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:15 pm

In post 8176, Casso the King of Seals wrote:You have the most experience with Sakura, meaning you know her play style better than most and generally won't read her off play style things. This translates into you knowing how to read her better than most. What about this explanation isn't clicking for you? Results in reading accuracy don't always translate into ability to read accurately.

if I read her better than most then my reads on her should obviously be accurate considering I'D KNOW HOW TO READ HER. but they're not and I always misread her. so I obviously don't know how to read her. your implication in the last sentence is backwards - if I can read her accurately, than my read on her should be accurate. since it's not, I can't read her

you should also know how hard it is to actually read her considering that newbie game where everything she did was intended to fool you. given she's capable of shit like that, why are you so surprised I'm not sure about her?

also why would you expect me to be able to see town Sakura considering YOU YOURSELF WERE SCUMREADING HER ON D1 AND THOUGHT HER PLAY DIDN'T FEEL LIKE THE USUAL SAKURA? if you actually believed this then you shouldn't be so surprised that I'm not sure on her either, especially when the only reason you gave for townreading her afaik was her response to the wagon on D1. you're asking me to see smth that you don't even think is there. so what's going on? this feels like smth you just made up after I called you on your false BOP argument

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:30 pm

In post 8169, Sakura Hana wrote:My take on this is that now you think that i'm not a possible Casso partner on whom you got your read wrong but Proph instead, then why are you questioning GM, A mason on her read on me when you've apparently already sorted me out?

I haven't sorted you out yet. atm Proph is my first bet but I haven't put in enough analysis to figure it out for sure. GM seems p confident in her read on you and so I wanted to know what she's thinking

I feel like you're putting words in my mouth. I outright said I haven't figured out which one it is yet and Proph is the best I can do just based on what I have. how did you get the idea I've sorted you from the post you quoted?

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:43 pm

I still wanna lynch Casso today

he's the last one left and I'm paranoid if we lynch someone else the remaining players won't wanna lynch Casso. the last 4 people who died all wanted to lynch Casso. I refuse to believe there's not smth to that. I don't give a shit how ridiculous it is. the last thing I need is for Casso-scum to win against me again despite me pegging him bc he was able to successfully kill off everyone who suspected him. plus the fact that BBQ now has Casso 3rd on his lynch list is making me paranoid of a BBQ x Casso team . this would make the situation especially dangerous if Proph gets lynched bc it'd literally just be me and GM left who'd wanna lynch Casso and they could just NK one of them

overall a Casso lynch has the least risk by far and is the most likely to flip scum

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:45 pm

if Casso flips town I'm completely lost. which is another reason I wanna lynch him immediately (information)

shooting from the ass, Proph + one of you/BBQ bc the way Nero tried to 1v1 you earlier. and if I really have to pick between you and BBQ I'll probably just suicide although I'd lean towards BBQ

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:59 pm

both F-16 and Norl were townreading Proph. am I missing smth?

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:03 pm

I don't get it. what are you asking?

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:08 pm

no I meant I don't get where you're going with this. what do you want me to answer after assuming a Casso x Proph team?

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:18 pm

F-16 and Norl both wanted to lynch Casso and Tammy was expressing suspicion of him

besides that I don't think Proph matters here and I don't wanna speculate too much on NKs for no reason. the major point with all the kills is probably to get rid of threats to Casso. I don't wanna rule ppl out just bc of NKs when it probably doesn't even matter

on top of that I don't think it makes any more sense if you swap in BBQ or you. Norl was scumreading BBQ but I don't know if that means anything

pieguyn · Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:27 pm

oh

I'm assuming there's a scumdoc bc it fits with the setup, so assuming 2 scum it'd be whoever isn't the scumdoc. besides that I have no idea 0.0

pieguyn · Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:36 am

...sigh

if proph flips town dont fucking let casso get away tomorrow. I am not losing t hi is fucking game. I WKLL FUCKING DRAG THIS TOWN INTO COMPETENCE EVEN IF I HAVE TO DRAG YP
OU ALL KICKING AND SVREAMING

pieguyn · Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:38 am

sakura: after sttack on titan where all 3 wagons were scjmand perpetial mylo im nodiscoi.tong anything BBC ,ojnterwagpn

pieguyn · Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:16 pm

I did a shitton of rereading last night and

1. I think I can bank Sakura town. there's smth I noticed that's practically an absolute towntell for her bc it's part of a meta trajectory that's really recent and I don't think she'd be aware of it as scum
2. Casso is still scum and there were several off notes after reading Casso's ISO. I'll elaborate if enough ppl bother me

also, BBQ and Casso were scumreading each other before BBQ moved Casso down and put a lynch order where they win if they're both scum, yet both their votes went to Proph. this should really not be happening at this point in the game and it makes me think scum x scum. there's also the chance of just 4 scum. so it's either Casso x BBQ or there's only 4 scum and it's Casso

I still wanna lynch Casso and I won't tolerate any other lynch. he's the one I'm by far the most sure of and there might only be 4 scum anyway. and I far prefer to go for the sure bet right now as opposed to lynching someone else

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:47 pm

how the fuck can you possibly think I'm scum after I've put my heart and soul into this game?

there is literally no way I can be scum here

if you're town unvote. if it's a Casso x BBQ team we risk quickhammer

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:48 pm

seriously don't do the same fucking thing you did yesterday where we lynched someone before discussion is over

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:50 pm

fucking hell

Sakura get in here and fucking unvote

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:50 pm

I don't but I don't want even a slight risk of quickhammer

I at least wanna post my full case on Casso first

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:00 pm

In post 2100, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 1773, zMuffinMan wrote:town: maraca, bro, geists, tammy, f16, pieguy, koreanbbq, generic, varsoon, cephrir
maybe also domo. and maybe also desp

{casso, mafiassk, brian skies, goodmorning, sakura, pitoli, roflcopter}
haven't really sorted this yet
Your to sort list is me and a bunch of low hanging fruit, which doesn't actually bode too well for you. I can see you making me the centerpiece of your Day 1 play if you feel like people wouldn't expect you to push on me as scum. I mean, I could see you scumreading me as town as well, but I find it strange that nothing in Maraca/BRO/pieguy/BBQ/generic/Varsoon/Cephrir stuck out to you as anything but town. This feels like the kind of scumpool you could come up with after an initial readthrough then toss it out because it's way too easy.

In post 1993, zMuffinMan wrote:but the main reason i don't like them at the moment is that it feels a lot like they're coasting along and content with not creating any friction while doing not a lot of anything. kinda hypocritical coming from me given the start i've had this game, but meh, i'm still getting my bearings in this game.
You've seen me coast as town as scum. What makes this a more scummish coast as opposed to a townish coast?

In post 1993, zMuffinMan wrote:i also don't like the way they're forming their reads. it doesn't look like what i'd expect from them as town. e.g. i'm not really sure what's going on with their read on me.
What other reads are formed in a strange way?

Vote: zMuffinMan

We don't have to tell Thor that I changed our vote.

In post 2442, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 2416, zMuffinMan wrote:
casso wrote:If I'm not trying to sort you, what the hell are we doing now?
bullshit. you're not trying to sort me. you're talking at me, but nowhere in this back-and-forth have you tried to sort me. you're asking me shit questions and making snide comments here and there, but you're not trying to figure me out. you don't seem to actually care about my alignment, and it's sad that a majority of this player list is ignoring what you're doing.

casso wrote:you know your scum list is probably wrong and aren't really making efforts to refine it
part of that is because i'm only barely paying attention to this game (reading this game is just below banging my head against a wall on my to do list) and part of that is because i want flips before i start doubting my reads. i never assume my reads are accurate and always work on the assumption i could be wrong, but that doesn't mean i'm going to doubt my reads because i could be wrong. i don't even know why i have to explain this to you. it's fucking simple shit.

casso wrote:Your primary push is on me which you know isn't the type of thing that isn't going to go through anytime soon
*shrug* i don't like that barely anybody else is paying attention to how fucking scummy you're being, but i don't currently have the time to push it any harder than i'm already pushing it. i don't really give a shit; i'll push who i want to push.

casso wrote:you aren't really making an effort to sort out things any further than you have already even though the current position that you would be as a townie would be the type that's frustrating and generally not acceptable
i don't even know what this means, so i'm just going to assume it's drivel. i'm town, and if you're actually town here, you need to get over this dumb shit you're pushing on me
It's probably not worth the effort to respond to this.
Maybe later!

SAKURA QUIT BEING A FUCKING MORON

YOU DON'T FUCKING VOTE BEFORE DISCUSSION IS FINISHED WHEN THERE'S A CHANCE IT'S LYLO

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:01 pm

AND THIS IS NOT THE FUCKING TIME TO FORM READS BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE PAST GAME DAY

THIS IS THE TIME WHEN YOU NEED TO PULL TOGETHER EVIDENCE FROM THE ENTIRE GAME

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:02 pm

I AM NOT FUCKING LOSING THIS GAME

I'M MAKING MY CASE ON CASSO AND YOU WILL SHEEP IT

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:07 pm

here's the tl;dr of it I'll pull up quotes later

1. zmuffin push lacked all the passion you usually find in town Nacho. looking back on it I agree with F-16's point that they weren't pushing each other hard enoguh at all
2. scum Nacho has an obvious pattern of trying to hit all the town Nacho notes at times when he thinks ppl are expecting them, and aside from that it's not really there. this is really obvious if you look at marketplace 3 and it's what he's doing here. I'll pull up evidence later but one really noticeable thing is he tends to try to replicate it whenever he makes a big breakthrough on a read on someone. if you wanna see the results of this, look at what marangal kept saying "why is casso super town every time

i start doubting my read on their slot

".
3. mindset on their read on me makes no sense. if Nacho was starting to follow Thor's read on me he should take more of an interest in Thor's points that I blatantly ignored. from what they gave, it feels like they planned to scumread me in advance and came up with the reason later. on top of that Thor's entire reason is smth he really shouldn't believe if he's town given it points to him above everything else
4. Nacho's push on me D8 is full of incorrect points and him putting words in my mouth. also, he only bothered to question the way I was POE'ing ppl when he got boxed in by it

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:09 pm

Sakura how can you possibly think I am scum here

SERIOUSLY

HOW

THERE'S NO WAY

IT'S IMPOSSIBLE

YOUR POE IS WRONG BECAUSE CASSO IS SCUM AS SHIT AND YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:10 pm

IT'S CALLED WHITEKNIGHTING

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:12 pm

is that a serious vote

please don't tell me you're trolling me

pieguyn · Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:09 pm

In post 2100, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 1773, zMuffinMan wrote:town: maraca, bro, geists, tammy, f16, pieguy, koreanbbq, generic, varsoon, cephrir
maybe also domo. and maybe also desp

{casso, mafiassk, brian skies, goodmorning, sakura, pitoli, roflcopter}
haven't really sorted this yet
Your to sort list is me and a bunch of low hanging fruit, which doesn't actually bode too well for you. I can see you making me the centerpiece of your Day 1 play if you feel like people wouldn't expect you to push on me as scum. I mean, I could see you scumreading me as town as well, but I find it strange that nothing in Maraca/BRO/pieguy/BBQ/generic/Varsoon/Cephrir stuck out to you as anything but town. This feels like the kind of scumpool you could come up with after an initial readthrough then toss it out because it's way too easy.

In post 1993, zMuffinMan wrote:but the main reason i don't like them at the moment is that it feels a lot like they're coasting along and content with not creating any friction while doing not a lot of anything. kinda hypocritical coming from me given the start i've had this game, but meh, i'm still getting my bearings in this game.
You've seen me coast as town as scum. What makes this a more scummish coast as opposed to a townish coast?

In post 1993, zMuffinMan wrote:i also don't like the way they're forming their reads. it doesn't look like what i'd expect from them as town. e.g. i'm not really sure what's going on with their read on me.
What other reads are formed in a strange way?

Vote: zMuffinMan

We don't have to tell Thor that I changed our vote.

In post 2406, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 2213, zMuffinMan wrote:
maraca wrote:Zmuffin is completely non-comittal and his iso yields absolutely no scum-hunting
*shrug*

if by non-committal, you mean i barely give a shit about this game, then you're right. but that's mostly because reading the back-and-forth bitching between some of the players in this game is sapping my motivation

as for lack of scum hunting, meh, your definition of scum hunting must be very different to mine

casso wrote:It shouldn't be too hard for you to believe that I would want to sort you early
mmhmm. and if you really were trying to sort me, i'd expect you to have, you know... actually done something to try and sort me. but you haven't done that and you're not doing that.

casso wrote:Meaning if you're wrong on me, your scumteam is... "a bunch of lurkers"?
the phrasing of this is really off. from your pov, if you're town, you shouldn't be talking about "if" i'm wrong on you. but i digress.

yeah, if you're town, then my scum list would contain primarily "lurkers". that's just how my reads developed this game. i imagine i could be wrong somewhere in my town reads, but i'm not all that concerned about it atm. that'll most likely sort itself out somewhere down the line.

besides, if you think it's strange to suspect primarily lurkers, why are you only calling me out for it? why not, say, maraca, whose most recent scum list is
all
low-content players? or any of the other people whose scum lists include primarily "lurkers"?

casso wrote:I never had a fully formed read on him, so I don't really see your problem with it
that
is
my problem with it, actually. it never looked fully-formed and you guys seemed so confident about him being scum (or at least thor did). but i'm assuming this means your read on him is now fully-formed. what is your pieguy read now?

casso wrote:Did I need to comment further on that?
it was never clear what your actual read on them is (was). so thor now thinks bbq is town?
If I'm not trying to sort you, what the hell are we doing now?

Your attack on my phrasing is something that makes me sad you brought it up in the first place. I'm attacking you because you know your scum list is probably wrong and aren't really making efforts to refine it. Your primary push is on me which you know isn't the type of thing that isn't going to go through anytime soon, and you aren't really making an effort to sort out things any further than you have already even though the current position that you would be as a townie would be the type that's frustrating and generally not acceptable. I'm not attacking Maraca because I have other reasons to call them town and they actually are making efforts to refine things.

Town, hence why I stopped attacking him. Thor seemed confident he was scum, maybe, but his case on him was distinctly of the "not really confident this is scum" type, so that shouldn't have confused you that much.

Yes, he does.

In post 4394, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4393, zMuffinMan wrote:you're measuring my post count across christmas/new year's/a period of time when the site has been going down constantly for lengthy periods of time and calling it strange that i have less posts here than in another game. yeah...
I measured to the 26th. Site downtime hasn't affected anyone else incredibly significantly, so I didn't think that it affected you that horribly. I think the difference is still important even when considering holidays.

In post 4393, zMuffinMan wrote:all you're doing is making tinfoil arguments about why i could be scum and you're using a recent game where i intentionally manipulated my meta specifically to look town as a basis for fueling this argument
saying that you're being lurky and apathetic because your scum games usually aren't lurky and apathetic isn't a tinfoil argument at all. the only reason i brought up the marketplace argument was to show that you were pretty aware of your own meta.

In post 4393, zMuffinMan wrote:you're not actually trying to understand anything or trying to discern my alignment in any way in this game
What more am I supposed to do?

In post 4397, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4396, zMuffinMan wrote:yeah, well i happen to have a very rare affliction that i'm pretty sure nobody else in this game suffers from, and i'm actually rather sensitive about it *sob* *sob*. the truth is... i'm australian
I post the same times you do a lot, and I'm not australian.

In post 4396, zMuffinMan wrote:when you think i'm scum for that reason alone, it is the very definition of a tinfoil argument
My original reason for you not being town was lack of towniness, no blazing glory. The "hey, muffin manipulates his meta so it's not inconceivable that he's doing so here" is a reason for you not being town because apathy.

In post 4396, zMuffinMan wrote:...
You hate the way I'm sorting you so much, but I don't see how I'm supposed to do better. For example, "figure out the reasons why you are lurking"? Am I supposed to track down your schedule, compare timestamps in Marketplace and FEA, then request site downtime and make an adjustment on calculations due to the holiday season? I don't believe the only acceptable answer is calling you town because apathy; it's a dumb reason to dismiss someone from being scum, just like you dismissing me because :effort: would be strange even though my play here already looks radically different from my play in Marketplace.

All I want to see is you caught up and doing things and posting good observations. I doubt this exchange will go anywhere because I know you're comfortable in back and forths as scum; I want to see what you're pushing and why and how hard you're pushing it, and I won't get those things from your posting until you step it up.

In post 4399, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4398, zMuffinMan wrote:i'm calling your approach to reading me bullshit because you're not even thinking about it; you're not trying to assess things properly, you're just bullshitting your read on me.
You keep repeating this but you've never explained why you think this.

In post 4401, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Why did you say you expected me to see that this wasn't your scumgame early? What have you done so far that you expect me to read as town?

In post 4398, zMuffinMan wrote:wait, you know the site being down affected me a lot, so i dunno why you're feigning like you don't know that had something to do with it. i even complained about it frequently in our QT iirc
I'm sure it had something to do with lower activity, but I don't think the little bit of downtime would ruin your motivation completely.

In post 4404, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4403, zMuffinMan wrote:the way you're approaching the read on me feels unnatural. you're looking at something, and suggesting i'm scum because because while this may be something that sometimes happens when i'm town, i could also being doing ithis as scum! tbh, i expected more of a reserved approach from you, sorta like the one ffery's been taking toward me
I originally approached you and attacked you because I didn't see any towniness in your early posts and I expected to see some towniness; I padded my case on you as a result, but the main reason for the push was to get you engaged and see if I could read you if pushing you. I'm suggesting you're scum because you haven't really given me a reason to read you as town so far and because I see the angle you're taking now as something you feel would be something people wouldn't expect out of town-Muffin. How is this unreasonable?

I am more likely to take a reserved approach as scum as opposed to town; I don't like having people I'm familiar with in null piles after a certain point.

In post 4403, zMuffinMan wrote:this is a horrible question
Answer it anyways.

In post 4406, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4405, zMuffinMan wrote:mm, that could be because you're scum
The quoted statement and the question I asked you are linked, you know.

In post 4431, Casso the King of Seals wrote:CAST DOWN FROM HEAVEN (FURY OF FLING FROM STRONGEST TO WEAKEST):

Desperado - I liked Desperado's entrance because it was so solidly "I don't give a fuck, what's up guys". His early pushes felt more fluid and less loud and confident like his normal scum pushes. I didn't like his attack on Varsoon for "false dichotomies" because Varsoon does that as town as Desperado saw. I thought his push on Maraca was fine, and his push on Sakura was good (until recently when he continued pushing Sakura after the meltdown bit and didn't engage anyone on why opinions so radically changed). Geists scumread is also weird although it doesn't make a whole lot of sense as a Desperado-scum fakeread, and the "oh I'm not pushing you today even though I have you as a scumread because you're not getting lynched" bit is weird, considering he's made no attempt to sell anyone on any of his non-consensus scumreads. Not at all hitting the level I expect Desperado-town to hit.

Ser Arthur Dayne - Initial read on Tammy is kind of weird (Tammy is highly town unless she can emulate her usual town aggressiveness): SAD hasn't played with Tammy for a while, sure, but I'm fairly sure he played with her on Westeros longer than anyone else in the game, so the bit of paranoia that she could fake what she showed here seemed disingenuous. His push on pie is weird and not really representative of what pie was doing (and I don't like his backtrack when he goes from "pie is doing zero scumhunting" to "his scumreads are fake/he's tunneling"). Him pushing pie pretty strongly and going "meh, can't get a read on you" was strange but probably not alignment indicative, and his later pushes on Muffin/us where he votes us then doesn't comment on the vote at all both feel weird (I think I read something about him explaining the reasons he did this somewhere). I'm still weirded about by his defense of SSK on the basis of being not good information; I like that he was so honest about the associative tell thing (yeah, it was a lie all along), but I'm not really sure what he was supposed to defend himself with as scum and that honestly doesn't look so great when his initial reaction was to lie about it, which would be for SAD-town. His switch on SSK also seems like an odd position to take; he doesn't seem to be getting boxed in by POE and I don't follow his case on SSK today, so the newfound scumread on him seems opportunistic. I like his snark, and I'm inclined to believe him when he says he wouldn't kill Tammy because he joined this game to play for her, but it's not enough for a townread.

Muffin - My main concern with Muffin at this point is that there's nothing in his posts I can point to and strongly declare him town because of it. His attack on me is mostly a response to my attack on him, and has a few genuine-sounding notes that are pretty fakeable for Muffin-scum. He felt a lot more aggressive dismissing me for my read on him than he does now which could be an effect of scumMuffin running out of angles or townMuffin not feeling as strongly about things as he did before. I liked Muffin's question to geists about their townread on me (is it because of how he sorted you?) because a large component of ffery townread on me in Marketplace was my sorting her, and I like the stronger than consensus townread on BRO since it's Muffin shutting down a mislynch option when I'm guessing mislynch options are fairly sparse. In the end, I need more content and I need town leader Muffin over the Muffin that we see here.

Norlkaz (but mostly Brian Skies) - I am completely null on Llamarble, and I've sort of resigned myself to being null on him for a while. Brian Skies did not post enough in order to get any sort of solid read on; there were a couple good-sounding moments earlier in his ISO, but nothing I have any sort of faith in.

BRO - This game feels very, very different from the two games where we were scumbuddies. I agree with general statements that he hasn't dedicated as much time as in scum games to looking town, and the early push on ffery for not seeing what he expected her to seems like a nice early attack on a power player to early attack on me. A lot of his talk relies on other players and based on feelings in other games, and the majority of his pushes lack the low fruit strikes that seemed rampant in his other scumgames (for example, calling goodmorning town for town lurk early closed that option off early when it was something I expected BRO to go for as scum). Concerning bits are mostly based on BRO not hitting the "unfakeable factor" that a lot of players have seem to hit or come close to hitting, lacking something strong that I can point to and declare "yes, this is town", and having a good scumgame with a pretty impressive range. BRO would probably be a decent townread in a more normal game.

SSK read is a special case, not something to be dealt with today.

In post 4434, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4430, Norlkaz wrote:The post is alarming because the primary purpose seems to be showing us how much work Nacho is doing.
His descriptions are too detailed for a notes-to-self post but too mashed-together for a persuasive post.
Purposes of large masturbatory reads lists are for me to get as much work done as possible while I still have a laptop at my disposal, to explain some reads, to solidify positions enough where I can push with confidence. I'm fairly confident you've seen a "Nacho showing off how much work he's doing" post, and it usually comes with limitless quote stripes and is followed by coasting, coasting, and more coasting.

Vote: Desperado

I feel pretty confident in Desperado/SAD scum and probably scum in Muffin/SSK.

In post 4487, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 4442, DOMO wrote:
In post 4391, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Similarities - Muffin lazy in both.
Differences are based mostly on context; in that game, he was replacing into a game with an absolutely massive Day 1, lots of loud obnoxious people floating around, town was already ridiculously town and the slot he replaced into was ridiculously town already. Here, he replaced in fairly early, there weren't so many obnoxious and loud people (just a bunch of loud people), and his slot was at a point where it needed to look town in order to narrow down options more. I will also note he got a hell of a lot more engaged a lot quicker in FEA (122 posts in 12 days there, 52 posts in 15 days here), which doesn't make sense because I can imagine this would be a game he would be more excited to get into.
This is what I dislike most in the recent casso muffin exchange. Casso is building pressure on muffin by comparing his meta to one of his town games, pointing out that as town he was very quick to get involved. Muffin argues this is due to xmas/site probems, and casso argues back that it doesn't seem to have effected anyone else. Well actually it did. Compare my d1 activity to today. The site problems and timing are absolutely the reason I was not thoroughly up to date on d1. Casso using this in a meta argument is pretty horrible. The two situations he's comparing are imo uncomparable, and both nacho and thor should know better. This I think is scum trying to build a mislynch.
My main point remains that he hasn't done anything townish and he has shown himself to get involved quicker in games where he's town. Muffin gives plenty of plausible excuses to why he's not engaged (site problems, Xmas, IRL, ingame noise), and I point out that this really hasn't affected anyone else as much as it has affected him. For example, despite site problems and timing fucking up your engagement with thread, you still have over 200 posts, have voiced many reads and paranoid thoughts and things like that. Muffins managed two reads lists and an exchange with me.

the posts where nacho pushes on zmuffin. first off, after this he lets up on the push a lot and doesn't really do much with it till D5 and even then Proph was the one who led the lynch. second, a lot of these angles are really weird (them posting at the same time despite zmuffin being in australia, not posting "enough" despite all the site downtime which is also smth I questioned him on earlier). also, Nacho knows zmuffin sometimes comes up with these shitty moonlogic reads out the ass and so the fact he's so concerned about defending himself from smth he knows is probably really stupid, and using it as an another argument AGAINST him, as opposed to an argument for him-town or null, is really off. it also lacks a lot of the town Nacho passion you usually see although that might just be me

I was almost positive there were some posts where he was arguing against other ppl's scumreads on zmuffin (which wouldn't make any sense and made me think he was doing it so he could get the most towncred from the lynch) but I couldn't find them. the only one I saw was him saying he wasn't optimistic about me catching zmuffin on a scumslip

also, despite all this pushing the only time he really pushed for a lynch on zmuffin was early D1 until he joined the wagon D5. his read on him in that readslist was also really waffly and seems like a read that could easily justify distancing without putting zmuffin in too much danger of a lynch

on the zmuffin end, afaik he's usually more aggressive than this but idk if it means anything

on top of all this, he misrepped my zmuffin read as being in a similar position to him where he stays unsure about it for a while when my zmuffin read was really the same type of POE I'm doing right now to him