NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Empire]

Day 2, Votecount 15

Ser Arthur Dayne (5)

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Casso the King of Seals, Bert, Desperado, pieguyn, Cephrir

Desperado (2)

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Sakura Hana, MC Maraca

pieguyn (1)

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Norlkaz

Cephrir (1)

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Ser Arthur Dayne

Bert (1)

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KoreanBBQ

Not Voting (8)

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geists, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, MafiaSSK, zMuffinMan, Generic, goodmorning, BROseidon, DOMO

With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch! Deadline is on January 11th at 10:10 AM EST (expired on 2014-01-11 11:10:12)

Mod Notes

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BROseidon is V/LA until January 3rd. Generic is V/LA until Sunday.

[Casso the King of Seals]

Why did you say you expected me to see that this wasn't your scumgame early? What have you done so far that you expect me to read as town?

wait, you know the site being down affected me a lot, so i dunno why you're feigning like you don't know that had something to do with it. i even complained about it frequently in our QT iirc

I'm sure it had something to do with lower activity, but I don't think the little bit of downtime would ruin your motivation completely.

[geists]

This is Nati's scumpile. I'm putting some of my own thoughts around it.

Pieguyn - Nati has a scumread. I have a mixed read. There was one post in his back and forth with me that I really liked, and I backed off on that basis. But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

ffery what the fuck you better not be scum

BBQ - I keep thinking about Cabd pushing through a TiP day 1 lynch in the Xenologue game, and getting away with such a bad "misread". GiF's confidence in reading Varsoon is pretty high. But, his offering to be the lynch instead (at a moment when I was seriously considering doing the same) and his characterization of the lynch as a Christmas Miracle when we lynched a town PR just feels like something that scum wouldn't do. Nati found his SSK lynch post at the start of day 2 very troubling.

Sakura Hana - the blacklist tell isn't as convincing as all that, the more we think about it, and there are too damn many players in our town pile.

Desperado - Nati's gut read, lack of presence. I feel like he's not putting a lot of effort into pushing his reads, and not doing much to organize town, which I associate with town-Desp. Nati has had good luck spotting scum-Desp lately

I'm finding it really difficult to move these four out of my nullpile and not also move Norlkaz and zmuffin. But, Norlkaz is an almost complete unknown, and if zmuffin will finish those ISOs and post some reads I'll have something solid to base a read on.

[zMuffinMan]

You keep repeating this but you've never explained why you think this.

the way you're approaching the read on me feels unnatural. you're looking at something, and suggesting i'm scum because because while this may be something that sometimes happens when i'm town, i could also being doing ithis as scum! tbh, i expected more of a reserved approach from you, sorta like the one ffery's been taking toward me

Why did you say you expected me to see that this wasn't your scumgame early?

i may have said something along the lines of expecting you, if anyone, to pick up on this not being my scum game, but that's mostly because if anyone has intimate knowledge of how i play as scum, it's you.

What have you done so far that you expect me to read as town?

this is a horrible question

if zmuffin will finish those ISOs and post some reads I'll have something solid to base a read on

i'm mostly done. give me a couple hours (i have like 5 to go)

[Casso the King of Seals]

the way you're approaching the read on me feels unnatural. you're looking at something, and suggesting i'm scum because because while this may be something that sometimes happens when i'm town, i could also being doing ithis as scum! tbh, i expected more of a reserved approach from you, sorta like the one ffery's been taking toward me

I originally approached you and attacked you because I didn't see any towniness in your early posts and I expected to see some towniness; I padded my case on you as a result, but the main reason for the push was to get you engaged and see if I could read you if pushing you. I'm suggesting you're scum because you haven't really given me a reason to read you as town so far and because I see the angle you're taking now as something you feel would be something people wouldn't expect out of town-Muffin. How is this unreasonable?

I am more likely to take a reserved approach as scum as opposed to town; I don't like having people I'm familiar with in null piles after a certain point.

this is a horrible question

Answer it anyways.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm suggesting you're scum because you haven't really given me a reason to read you as town

mm, that could be because you're scum

Answer it anyways.

i have a better idea

[Casso the King of Seals]

mm, that could be because you're scum

The quoted statement and the question I asked you are linked, you know.

[pieguyn]

not really. i must admit paying attention to sad's read progression on you wasn't high on my list of priorities this game (shocking, i know). but i'll take your word for it. when did you ask him about it?

4339
and looking back on it, SAD's initial read on me was scum, not null. so apparently his read on me went scum -> town -> scum and there was no explanation for any of it besides his initial scumread on me. it feels like his read of me throughout the game was just derived from the general impression of me at that time

But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

I'm sure you've noticed, but this game has done a really good job of making me go insane. plus I was getting paranoid of you despite the fact I was sure you were town before and it wasn't even the good kind of paranoia that's based off of smth reasonable it was the evil kind where you just feel completely scared and frozen and lose all grip on logic and sanity making me go even more insane. so if it feels fake it's probably bc of that > <

for now I'm really sure of GIF town. idk about Nero but there's smth I noticed about the two scumgames of GIF's I've seen that I didn't see in his one towngame I've seen. I haven't had a chance to apply it yet but I'm not seeing it here. he's also put in a noticeable amount of effort on D1 towards scumhunting and he was way more invested in this game than usual. do you think that's smth that's more likely to come from scum GIF?

also I disagree with the idea that GIF is scum bc he "misread" SC. I'd expect Nati of all people to know that bc of how he misread SSK in AA: MFA 0.0

actually I realized smth about Casso. how do you like the chance Casso is deliberately focusing on trying to fool you as scum? I'm wondering bc zmuffin and him were on a team in marketplace and zmuffin said he did this earlier. when I pushed on him in that game (and I was one of the only ones doing that) he basically redirected me to your metadive on him and made up this whole story about that game v. imperishable night and then he wasn't really suspected again at all 0.0 so it seems very possible nacho noticed this in that game and then tried to do the same thing in this game

[pieguyn]

@F-16:

can you explain which of SAD's posts are giving you townvibes?

bc I just now connected whose lynch SAD was opposed to with SSK's probably scum role, and I think everything makes sense given a SAD + SSK scumteam. SAD was apparently opposed to SSK's lynch bc of the "lack of information". however, then he went and forgot all about getting information from lynches when SC got lynched and he took no interest in looking through the discussion, stances, and wagons on SC on D1 till after I brought it up, and instead immediately contradicted that thought process by saying it was weird how Generic was doing that same thing. when pressured about it he just dodged all my questions and/or deflected

however, if they both are scum, then I deduce that his primary motivation was to try to switch the deadline wagon onto someone else, and so he had to fabricate a reason for not wanting to lynch SSK. thus, his apparent cogdis was a result of the fact that he doesn't actually give a flying fuck about the information gained from a lynch, and was just BS'ing when he said he did. it also makes sense how he dodged me when I asked him about this, when this was my major point against him

[geists]

But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

I'm sure you've noticed, but this game has done a really good job of making me go insane. plus I was getting paranoid of you despite the fact I was sure you were town before and it wasn't even the good kind of paranoia that's based off of smth reasonable it was the evil kind where you just feel completely scared and frozen and lose all grip on logic and sanity making me go even more insane. so if it feels fake it's probably bc of that > <

for now I'm really sure of GIF town. idk about Nero but there's smth I noticed about the two scumgames of GIF's I've seen that I didn't see in his one towngame I've seen. I haven't had a chance to apply it yet but I'm not seeing it here. he's also put in a noticeable amount of effort on D1 towards scumhunting and he was way more invested in this game than usual. do you think that's smth that's more likely to come from scum GIF?

Natis GiF read is the one I most disagree with of that list.

But, his reads are in direct response to my own reads list draft, wherein I wound up with a town pile, a null pile, and SSK (who's a special case at this point). I literally could not push any of my null reads all the way to scum without becoming completely arbitrary.

also I disagree with the idea that GIF is scum bc he "misread" SC. I'd expect Nati of all people to know that bc of how he misread SSK in AA: MFA 0.00

I think his reaction to it turning out to be a mislynch looks town.

actually I realized smth about Casso. how do you like the chance Casso is deliberately focusing on trying to fool you as scum? I'm wondering bc zmuffin and him were on a team in marketplace and zmuffin said he did this earlier. when I pushed on him in that game (and I was one of the only ones doing that) he basically redirected me to your metadive on him and made up this whole story about that game v. imperishable night and then he wasn't really suspected again at all 0.0 so it seems very possible nacho noticed this in that game and then tried to do the same thing in this game

Fool me in particular? He's made fooling me an artform. It takes a lot for me to drop the possibility completely from consideration.

His tunneling of zmuffin looks genuine, though. So does zmuffin's reaction to it. But, nacho's line of attack is kinda weak and really doesn't leave much room for rebuttal beyond "Nu-uh".

I'm not sure how I'd go about responding to an attack like that.

[Casso the King of Seals]

TOWN ANGELS:
Geists - Gunsmith innocent is a pretty solid reason, but even if you don't buy that, there's an extraordinarily transparent and incredibly hard to fake thought process going from the start of the game to now. Her attack on me for my early focus and strange focus on Brian definitely seemed like too "creative" an angle to take if she was trying to sort me out as scum; I would expect the fallback attack for Nacho paranoia from ffery-scum would end up looking something like "you're reading me wrong" or "you're not sorting me". I thought the harsh blowback against F-16 for his initial read of geists was very, very townish; ffery-scum's first reaction to a townread she isn't expecting is "holy shit, how is this happening"; I have trouble seeing her evolve from this to attacking people townreading her for weak reasons so quickly. Later in the game, the way she approaches not having many strong scumreads is very genuine, reaction to pieguyn initial vote on me after Sakura stuff is kneejerk and very town, a few exchanges with scumreads such as Desperado are very town. A hydra primarily guided by ffery having 500 posts on Day 2 is also a great sign.

Goodmorning/Maraca - I will admit that Cabd attaching to a weak player and claiming masons with them when they would be lynched any other way is something that gives me paranoid fits at times, but I'm still very satisfied with both slots being town on an individual basis before even considering the mason claim (although goodmorning not as town as Maraca, obviously). Goodmorning's townpoints are mostly for so consistently going after impossible targets (me, Muffin) that won't be getting lynched for a very very long time. If she really were scum, she could be a hell of a lot opportunistic than she's been but instead she's been playing with the big boys. Meanwhile, Mara has had some town as hell moments: her frustration seems more genuine than it did the last game I played scum with her.

F-16 - I thought the initial deal with me was pretty townish; there's no good reason for F-16 to promise not to kill me immediately in a game like this as scum, but convincing Nacho-scum to leave him alive makes sense for F-16 town. His paranoia about the deal later in the game (when he expressed plenty of regret, mentions making a "deal with the devil") also seem like unlikely F-16 scum things to do, and showing flashes of paranoia around me in spite of the deal (thus opening the door for me to have paranoia flashes about him) seem like something he would avoid doing as scum, considering it throws all benefit he got from the deal in the first place out of the window. His reasoning for townreading ffery early on was pretty solid (attacking me), his efforts to sort me out through ffery's read on me is wonderfully town, etc. etc. Series of posts starting at 3608 are the more in depth towncase, don't feel any less confident about this read now than I did then.

Sakura Hana - I won't talk about her play before my big push on her since I think everything she posted there is fakeable from Sakura-scum, if not outright scummy. But, I thought that the way she responded to getting wagonned (namely the whole "I have no respect for any of you after this", "what a fitting end; hurry up and lynch me so I never come back to MS again" bits) was town as hell for blacklist tell reasons (explained 3718). I can see her being frustrated at being lynched for no reason as scum, sure, but I can't see it turning into what it ended up evolving into when Sakura was speedwagonned. I thought the exchange we had over Sakura's townread on Cabd "maybe I had reasons, maybe I didn't" to "yeah, it was reaction test" made Sakura look fairly genuine, and the vote she currently has down actually seems like a pretty solid vote.

KoreanBBQ - I generally liked what GiF was doing early, followed him fairly easily. Early comment on him from QT is:
I think if you were attempting to put a vote on someone that isn't goodmorning for "not doing stuff", you have better candidates. GiF made an early exchange in reading ffery (#217), which has a few meta implications (both move awkwardly around each other when finding things that they don't like in the other, GiF is more suspicious of ffery than the rest of the meta crew but usually can't pick out what specific posts would bother town-him as scum. Ffery is less suspicious of GiF than the rest of the meta crew, but usually townreads him too easily as scum). GiF also talked of a conditional scumread on Stuffed Crust based on who was posting; there was an assumption that it was mostly Varsoon talking but GiF refuted that and pointed out that his play was gross for town-Varsoon. There was an attack on pieguyn earlier where he attacked him for being awkward around Sakura (another meta entanglement), he's generally making pushes now and playing fine. I thought that his "I'm satisfied with my posting this game and I never say that" statement was pretty genuine, as was his explanation of his total play in #2340. Nero is more active and involved than I remember him early game in Marketplace (and a few of his votes like YES I CAN FINALLY VOTE HANA seem like genuine Nerotown, as does his exchange with Mara for her late townreading him), GiF-Nacho sync was pretty cool and also unlikely to be coming from GiF-scum unless he's gotten amazing at predicting momentum ahead of time. Crowning move of towniness was #3743, which, if coming from scum, would require GiF to fight for a mislynch for a majority of the game, be in the perfect position to seize it, and then instead throw his hands up and go "fuck it". I can see where his frustration as town is coming from, and I thought giving the readslist as if he expected to get lynched afterwards and the "fuck you" comment about people not being able to say that he's not doing anything anymore is consistent with his #2340 and pretty genuinely town. I agree with ffery about Christmas miracles, and in response to Xenologue Cabd I will say this: GiF's read on the slot was primarily based on Mac, which he was decently loud about. He also didn't start pushing the slot with conviction until very, very late, which also made it seem genuine to me.

DOMO - Gunsmith claim, will sort himself out. A couple of paranoid flashes look pretty town, and claim this early with nothing relevant would be suicide for DOMO-scum down the road when he could be someone who could go deep, regardless of partners.

Bert - I think that his pieces of concern with me (wondering why I'm criticizing someone who mostly goes after lurkers based on Chosen Mafia, Hard Boiled, coming up with Nacho/ffery scumteam guesses, the "Nacho should be more charismatic and more widely townread by now" theory, then later paranoia push on geists based on gut... all of it seems like he's dealing with a variety of possibilities very quickly, and dealing with genuine paranoia; I haven't seen a Bert scumgame where he's so seamlessly went from player to player to player to player. His aggressiveness in making me see Sakura-town and embrace of the "blacklist tell" reminds me of Shoe in Wingate. He comes across as so much more genuine in his scumgames elsewhere, despite this being a large game that's pretty ridiculous and hard to keep up with.

Getting tired, but this is the townblock for now. I haven't read through Generic/Cephrir/Pie yet and I'm sure at least one of these three will make their way into the townblock. I feel very confident about this group, though (my weakest read is Bert, which should say something in and of itself).

[Desperado]

Desperado - Nati's gut read, lack of presence.

I feel like he's not putting a lot of effort into pushing his reads, and not doing much to organize town, which I associate with town-Desp.

Nati has had good luck spotting scum-Desp lately

wut

[zMuffinMan]

anyway, i'm done reading ISOs

maraca, geists, domo, goodmorning*
f16, bro
bbq, generic, pieguy, sakura, sad, cephrir
norlkaz
desperado, bert
casso, mafiassk

no real order within tiers, explanations will need to wait til tomorrow coz i'm tired

[DOMO]

I'm happier with muffin than I am casso through this last read.

[goodmorning]

There's been a bit too much excusing for my tastes.

Excusing for what?

Excusing for things that people have problems with.

if zmuffin will finish those ISOs and post some reads I'll have something solid to base a read on

i'm mostly done. give me a couple hours (i have like 5 to go)

Stop doing ISOs faster than me.

Also, let's wagon Casso for reals today.

That is all.

Goodmorning/Maraca - I will admit that Cabd attaching to a weak player and claiming masons with them

Yeah, still nobody will tell me when this happened?

I'm happier with muffin than I am casso through this last read.

Good, let's wagon Casso then.

Here, I'll start:

Vote: Casso

[Casso the King of Seals]

Excusing for things that people have problems with.

Things like...

Yeah, still nobody will tell me when this happened?

Cabd claimed masons with you, called you town for ~vague meta reasons~ for a while, then retracted the fake claim, then reiterated the claim. It's pretty clear you two are masons together unless you're not actually masons together, in which case you should probably say something.

[Casso the King of Seals]

TOWN ANGELS:

Pieguyn - A couple observations I have from the scumgames that I skimmed is that pie :effort: level here is very impressive compared to his :effort: level elsewhere, and his pushes on players here seem much more thorough than they did in any of his other scumgames. Early townread on goodmorning is a bit strange (as in I don't see the basis of it whatsoever), especially since it's one of the pie's top tier townreads; he didn't have any weird townreads like this in Marketplace. I agree with him that the strong tilt against our slot is something unlikely to come from Pieguyn-scum, and his theories of various scumteams sometimes get a little conspiracy theory but they seem very genuine (see: Casso-Cephrir team based on timing, Casso-Sakura team based on D1 and how he got people to talk about the Casso-Sakura possibility after he thought of it); they all seem like unlikely angles for scumpieguyn to push so fervently, especially when he hasn't demonstrated the ability to fervently push easier targets in the past. I also like a lot of his "I expect you would pick on on this" language, seems fairly genuine. The big thing is how absolutely out of his mind he would have to be playing in order to be scum right now, which is why I'm upgrading him at the moment.

ANGELS IN WAITING:

Cephrir - I find the strongest reasoning for him being town his vote on me after he misinterpreted a joke from me as calling him scum; I'm sure scumRir knows that he would be expected to manufacture an attack on me whenever I call him scum, but it was so quick and kneejerk and natural (he didn't even attempt to clarify whether I was actually suspecting him or not) that I have trouble seeing him pulling it off as scum. A couple of his sentiments also come off as really really genuine based on his perception of his town play "to be honest, it's probably a towntell to suspect me right now", "Nacho, I know you're good at reading me but there are others here who are good at reading me who are scumreading me". I liked his reading of DOMO early, and I generally liked his response to being wagonned (voting me for being aggressive, probably town + post before V/LA). He does have the scumrir tone when talking to or about SC, but he lacks it everywhere else so that's a good sign.

Generic - What I like most about Generic is how all over the place he's been this game; I agree with people who have pointed out that he seems more helpful, more "pro-town" as scum. #452 is an example of him being more of a loose cannon (taking a break because being mad at Mara pretty much immediately), as is his exchange with me over how he's treating Mara ("oh, are you trying to get me to tunnel her?") and his rant about people making him explain things early and ruining everything that he's attempting to do in the game. I liked his response to me when he did form his townread on Mara; he was extremely smug about it and had a whole "this is how it's done" air about him which reminds me strongly of his towngame (one of the things that pulled me off him eventually in We the Purple is how damn smug he sounded). I also thought that the series of posts where he says he's trying to be less emotive this game to fight with DOMO later was pretty damn town; he gave the excuses for why he wouldn't be as fiery as his usual town game and then commenced being as fiery as his usual towngame. I also thought that choosing to make his big push on the PR type gives him town brownie points; more likely Generic would spot the softclaiming and kill it during the night as opposed to make a full charge at it.

I feel much more comfortable upgrading pieguyn than I do the other two simply because pie's scumgame has a much smaller range than the other two have, and I simply can't see pie going from two games where generally he got scared to drive his pushes through pretty quickly and never came close to hitting the genuine notes he's hitting here to his play in this game. Even based on his push on Sakura alone here compared to Touhou uPick is town town town.

[Bert]

Wow, Nacho/Thor is walling it up like he's trying to prove he has had sleepless nights

[Casso the King of Seals]

every night's a sleepless night

[Casso the King of Seals]

is showed a word?

[Casso the King of Seals]

yeah it totally is

[Bert]

Maybe. Don't like that Muffin person and Arthur still. Gut. Will post frenetically after this upcoming weekend. Nero's a blind town tunneler, he needs that eye surgery that Ron Burgundy got. He must have tripped on ice skates too

Later! <3

[geists]

We don't like how he apparently missed a ton of crumbs

Just facepalmed myself because I remembered a game where Nacho failed to pick up on the most obvious cop result crumb I've ever seen in a mafia game. He failed so hard he actually thought the post was scummy and voted the cop.

Retracting the hell out of this.

[KoreanBBQ]

Hey Bert, why do you think I'm town tunneling on you and not scum tunneling on you?

[Bert]

cos if you were scum I'm not a legitimate lynch option for today since most people here know me and i gave it my all at the end of D1, and i will give it my all in a week if i live (which I 100% believe I will be here unless lynched)

plus gut

doesn't pass the bloomin free outback onion test dude boom bloom