Mini 1856 - This Mafia Game is for pieguyn (Game Over)

[pieguyn]

you're literally just objectively wrong, so

[pieguyn]

this is not subjective - you literally are just objectively wrong. the logic behind what you're saying is not correct.

i'll make things as straightforward as possible

fill in the blank: "there can't be two scum in a neighborhood because... ___"

[pieguyn]

also if there's a SK in this setup it's almost certainly Aero and it will be trivial after we lynch the last scum. unless you think there have somehow been two missed kills every night?

[pieguyn]

"There is two scum in the hood because ___"

there are two scum in the hood because Varsoon was scum and I think dwlee is very likely scum based on their play, yes. you're not arguing any reason for reading their play as town and you are just repeating over and over that "omg theyre more likely town given the flips we have!!11", but you don't substantiate why the neighborhood composition actually makes them town, and if you were to try you would not come up with anything compelling because the neighborhood composition does not make them town and this is objective fact

and I don't really care where you plan on voting, I'm doing this because what you are saying holds absolutely no water and needs to be shut down

p-edit: at the moment, if it isn't dwlee I would look in {you, beeboy, maybe Nahdia if everyone else fails but I would have to be very sure before lynching them}. if you want anything more than that, I'm out the door in a few mins so ask and I'll get around to it later.

[pieguyn]

and yeah there are three scum in this game.

[pieguyn]

what the everliving fuck did I just read.

also, Nahdia, I love you.

[pieguyn]

I don't understand pisskop's posts across the past few pages at all.

[pieguyn]

i'm starting to have some suspicions that we're actually in a 9-2-2 setup.

i don't really know how much stock i want to put in this. if the game reaches a 5p on day 5 with only one kill/night the entire way up to there, and Aero is still alive, i would definitely seriously worry about it and i'd go so far as to say the % play there would be to lynch him to be completely safe, and i have some other ideas as to what it might mean in terms of reads, but i really don't know if it's worth it to lose sleep over it before then.

a large part of this is due to the fact that i can think of some reason to town read almost everyone left (everyone except dwlee) - this could just mean that i'm being too generous with my reads and it *is* just someone like beeboy or pisskop (both of whom i think there is compelling reason to town read but are at the bottom in terms of my town reads), but if both dwlee and beeboy flip town i want to be a bit careful here

assuming we're not in a 9-2-2, i still feel mostly sure that lynching dwlee ends the game, and if they flip town, then I like a beeboy shot, and then I suppose Luna and Cakez just target someone who isn't a clear or either of themselves (which means pisskop, GE, or no block).

[pieguyn]

just throwing this out here, but

Wisdom faith healer, Varsoon faith healer / Aero BP, ??? ???

is pretty beautiful design-wise in that a cross kill on either scum team only has a 50% success chance, but it's split different ways.

[pieguyn]

I am not convinced that this is what is going on in this game, ftr, but I think it is definitely something we should plan for just in case today/tonight goes south.

[pieguyn]

I thought about it a bit more, and I think 9-2-2 makes some amount of sense given the theme of the game. he'd want to create a setup that would go full troll mode on me as either alignment, but not have anything completely stupid or anything that would make me legitimately detest playing the game. so with that in mind,

1. he knows that I don't like multiball as town, *but* he has ran a 9-2-2 multiball normal game before, and in conversations with me about it I remember him telling me that his reviewers called the setup beautiful and that he was really excited that he created a balanced multiball mini game and that it was the only multiball mini normal game that had been ran recently. I remember looking at the setup and telling him that it seemed to be balanced well (as opposed to being ridiculously scum sided like the majority of multiball games), so he might have decided to throw me a curveball and implement it here.

2. he knows that I don't like playing scum, but that I find it more bearable if it's multiball aka I can legitimately scum hunt.

it could just be single faction because disliking multiball as town, I'm not *completely* hopeless when it comes to single-faction scum, etc., but I _definitely_ think it should be seriously thought about if we miss today/tonight and have reason to suspect there is something wrong with this game

[pieguyn]

Yes you do.

they didnt change one lick. You werent having an issue when you were engaging them.

what dont you get?

I understand your posts, in that I can read the words you're writing and understand the meaning of them. I don't understand your posts all, in that when I read your posts I cannot comprehend how anyone can have the thought processes you are having and think they're actually valid.

[pieguyn]

Wisdom wouldnot have self hammered if the setup was 2-2 unless he valued trolling the town over winning.
This game has 3 scum on 1 team.

This is a super good point

I could see Gamma scum too. Wisdom was iirc townreading him for vague as shit reasons.

I could easily see Wisdom just giving up and hammering himself; I don't know why you or anyone else seems to think it's unlikely. I don't think GE looks like scum at all.

if the game was to continue past today, with one kill again tonight, then at what point would you start to think something was wrong?

[pieguyn]

multiball would imply Aero is scum claiming their kills as a "vig" and the N1 mafia kill disappeared somewhere (either Aero is BP and absorbed it or it went somewhere else). that doesn't seem like too much of a stretch to where I'd rule it out.

the N2 mafia kill obviously would not exist because the mafia would have been dead by then.

[pieguyn]

dwlee is definitely still the best lynch for today. this is just something I would be very concerned about if the game hasn't ended by tomorrow

[pieguyn]

I, uh, think that was hammer.

[pieguyn]

GE block is fine. I feel pretty sure he's town but an unambiguous clear (in the case of 10-3) on him would be useful. also, having two kills with a block not on beeboy would make it clear that we're not in a multiball scenario.

[pieguyn]

if we're not in multiball, and it isn't GE, beeboy, or dwlee, the only person it could reasonably be is pisskop.

[pieguyn]

Wisdom would not have chainsaw'd Cakez against Varsoon if all three of them were scum, I think.

plus Wisdom's push on Cakez was just nonsense, and I attribute that to him stretching to find reasons to take issue with a townie's play, not legitimately taking issue with a buddy's play.

[pieguyn]

Aero definitely kills you tonight. Luna blocks GE, and I think Cakez has free reign tonight.

[pieguyn]

I am so paranoid because everyone left looks really town.

[pieguyn]

OK.

I think there's a very good chance we're in 9-2-2, and for this reason I think an Aero lynch is best today. it absolutely is not 10-2-1, so speculation about that should stop, but lynching Aero would mean Cakez and Luna could reliably generate clears or force scum into no killing no matter what setup ratio we're in (him flipping WW means only one WW left, him flipping town means it's just a lone mafia who has been no-killing every night for some ungodly reason and will have to keep no killing or start generating clears).

I don't think it's 9-3-1, either, mostly just because GIF knows I think it's completely unfair and while I think he would troll me, I don't think he wants to make me legitimately suffer by making an unfair setup.

[pieguyn]

I think it's time nahdia confirm herself

this is a horrible idea, btw; the way it is now, if scum kill Nahdia then I confirm myself, if they kill me then Nahdia confirms themselves. scum literally cannot kill either of us without cutting me off as a mislynch option for good.

[pieguyn]

10-2-1 and 9-3-1 are even more imbalanced.

10-3 makes no sense unless the lone mafia left in this game has decided to no kill, as solo scum, the entire rest of the game after N1.

[pieguyn]

ya that too. 10-3 would also imply that Aero has true claimed bulletproof miller vig, which feels really broken given the other roles we have and the fact that the scum team so far only has had two faith healers.

and I don't think scum would keep trying to fire shots at Aero hoping they can eventually hit on one of them, I think they'd lay off after the shot N1.

[pieguyn]

the only scenario where I can see that is if GE is the scum, tried to shoot again on N2, but gave up N3 at which point you blocked him. I don't know how likely that is, though.

p-edit: I don't particularly like no lynch here, given what an Aero lynch would do to clear up the gamestate.

[pieguyn]

for the record, I want a few days to think about things a bit before we proceed with any lynch - no one put Aero at L-1 for the time being

[pieguyn]

pisskop if you're town please just shut the fuck up and stop posting.

I can't deal with any more of your idiocy.

[pieguyn]

I would literally liability lynch you if enough people in the game supported it. that's how fucking idiotic your posts are.

[pieguyn]

if there's an SK *or* if we're in 9-2-2, Aero is scum. that isn't a question.

[pieguyn]

who caught most the scum of the game?

you're delusional if you think you've caught shit this game. you spent the entire D1 hard defending Varsoon because "waaah I have a hood with him!!11", spent most of D1 agreeing with Wisdom, only realized Wisdom was scum after I pointed out he was scum and Varsoon had *flipped*, then threw a tantrum D3 because "waaah I have a hood" and expected people to listen to you because it went so fucking well the first time.

[pieguyn]

... what the fuck am I even reading?

1. if we're in 9-2-2, then Aero is scum. there is no two-person scum team in this game that does not include him; Nahdia and I cannot be a scum team and arguments along the lines of "you two need to confirm yourselves" do not hold water. Nahdia is confirmed town by virtue of my role; if anything what needs to happen is that they don't use the IC so that if scum decides to kill them I can use it.

2. we are not no lynching. I'll probably lay out why this is bad in a separate post at some point, after I've had some more time to think.

3. the "pisskop is not the entire game" argument doesn't work when if for instance the game was to progress to a 3p LYLO, then yes, he would be the entire game. that's the most polarized scenario, but I would rather not have to deal with him being a fucking moron who is playing to a scum win con the rest of the game. I don't like to be reckless in scenarios like this.

I'm clarifying all of this because it is ridiculous how many people in this game have no idea how theory works, both from today and at twilight yesterday as well.

I want to just scream bullshit at Aero trying to say "durr if you don't confirm how can I trust you?". I should probably come back and look at it again when I'm less emotional.

[pieguyn]

here's the issue with this game.

I think I know who the other WW is if we're in a 9-2-2 scenario, and if it's who I think it is, literally fuck this game.

[pieguyn]

So, here's what I think.

We've got seven players left. I understand why this might be baised, but why not just block me and we NL today? I feel like I don't trust you people to make Pie and Nahdia actually confirm themselves once you've lynched me. I mainly trust pisskop to do it, but I don't think that he will.

I'm not going to make any more kills regardless if you block me or not.

so let me get this straight: you are worried that this was 9-2-2 and that me and Nahdia are scum, correct?

what the hell do you think has happened to all the kills if this is the case? if this is what's going on, then both teams missed their kills N1 and we missed our kills N2 and N3. and no, "scum teams don't get kills" is a silly reason.

[pieguyn]

Varsoon - neighbor faith healer
Wisdom - neighbor faith healer

pieguyn - backup IC
Luna Fox - roleblocker
Gamma Emerald - VT
Nahdia - IC
SirCakez - tracker
Aeronaut - some sort of BP miller vig
pisskop - neighbor VT

drealmerz7 - nurse
beeboy - neighbor VT
Dwlee99 - neighbor VT
mhsmith0 - bomb vendor

i looked at the roles we have so far and there isn't actually as much power in this setup as i was thinking there was. i could easily see this balancing as a 10-3 if one of the big PRs remaining in the setup (one of Cakez, Luna, almost definitely Cakez given Luna does not work as single-faction scum here at all) is scum, although i still am not quite sure how he or anyone else would justify no killing every night.

this is what i want to do

lynch Aero today -> if he flips town, then it basically confirms we're in 10-3, with one mafia left. from here, i think this pretty heavily implies Cakez-scum, but i would consider doing something along the lines of Luna blocking pisskop or GE (announcing her target), Cakez having free reign again since we cover more bases that way, even though Luna blocking Cakez is probably also fine. the last mafia is forced into either continuing to no kill, or clearing at least one player, which makes this game pretty broken with both Luna's RB and Cakez' track in play.

if he flips WW, then it confirms we're in 9-2-2, with one WW left. from here i like Luna having free reign and Cakez tracking Luna; Luna if scum, which i would be very worried about in 9-2-2, is forced to either no kill, or kill Cakez and clear a player, and if the last scum is someone else, again same sort of broken position as we'd be in 10-3 with both the RB and the track in play. from there we have two lynches to hit the remaining werewolf - i'm not exactly sure why no lynch is an option here when all it would accomplish with 1 KPN is taking away a chance to hit the remaining WW, but i'll get more into that later in this post.

if he flips SK - i don't think this will happen but for completeness - we're in the same scenario we're in if he flips town

no lynch is completely awful here, for a lot of the reasons Nahdia pointed out. if we no lynch then for one, we waste a lynch, since we go from 7p (three lynches) to 6p (two) - this is fairly basic math so i'm not sure why it's even on the table, but even further, none of our potential clears would be unambiguous due to the likelihood of this being 9-2-2, and moreover, if we're in 9-2-2 then the WW team could easily just go rogue tonight, let Aero get lynched tomorrow and we're left in a not so great position with 4p, only one lynch remaining and the WW team having basically two free kills on whatever players or PRs they see fit. no lynch wouldn't tell us anything about what setup we're playing and we generally wouldn't be able to trust Aero to do what he says he'd do. i am noticing both Aero and Luna attempting to gear up for this and it is a part of reason i want to figure out some way to counter a hypothetical scum-Luna here via night actions in case we're in 9-2-2, as well as my read on her overall, but either way, no lynch is just really bad here no matter what setup we're in

[pieguyn]

How do you possibly deduce that it's impossible for there to be a team without me?

9-2-2 would mean you're a WW who's claiming your scum kills as a "vig". anything else doesn't work for the exact reason you said later in the post: there haven't been any kills.

personally if this is what was happening and I was in your position I woulda just went rogue last night and ate a lynch today, but continuing to slow play the vig claim also works.

[pieguyn]

um, no, not really. it's what I'd do, but both options are fine - it comes down to preference.

[pieguyn]

I'm 100% fine with it if, and only if, pisskop promises me that once it happens, he'll quit being an idiot, realize that I'm town, and not vote me or get weirded out on me again for the rest of the game.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia confirming themselves doesn't strictly clear me. after all, in pisskop-land, I could just be scum who guessed that a backup IC claim would work, went completely balls-to-the-wall and claimed it first post, and sat and hoped there'd be nothing in the game that would disprove the claim.

[pieguyn]

if you throw out any sort of weird ideas like "scum teams don't have kills", what does the gamestate look like from your POV?

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to think about if 10-3 still works with both Cakez and Luna as town. OTOH, I actually am not sure

[pieguyn]

I think it probably would, but the last scum would also be a PR.

[pieguyn]

that is not what I am doing at all. it could very easily be 9-2-2, I am trying to figure out *if* the setup might work as 10-3.

[pieguyn]

if you're town then the setup is 10-3 and I need to figure out what the hell is going on here. I don't think this is what's happening, but no reason I can't go ahead and think about it in case it is what's happening.

p-edit:

[pieguyn]

oh my god I'm dying.

[pieguyn]

Assuming you're town too, Who is scum to you between Piss/SC/Gamma/Luna?

I don't really see any possibility besides it being Cakez.

I've had my fair share of paranoia that I should be pulling the same "you're not this dense" card on pisskop that I pulled on Wisdom, but ergh.

[pieguyn]

that's L-1. someone unvote until I work a few things out, please

[pieguyn]

pisskop, literally go fuck yourself.

[pieguyn]

your play this game is quite literally some of the worst town play I have ever seen on this site. in any reasonable universe, I'm pretty much conftown, but OH NO, you sit there and throw a tantrum because I don't give you the lynch you want and thanks to you game throwing I have to play around you and waste a night having Luna RB me when there is literally no reason that should be necessary.

I hope to fuck you realize how [[[REDACTED]]] your play here is come postgame.

[pieguyn]

what reason do you actually have for scum reading me, besides the fact that I didn't just follow your "omg my entire hood is town!!11"?

[pieguyn]

Setup spec also works against you, and so do your emotional appeals.

yeah, thanks for telling me you have literally no idea how to scum hunt

and please do explain in what universe "setup spec" works against me here with an IC actually being in the fucking game.

[pieguyn]

they were confed

just like Varsoon couldn't be the lynch D1, am I right?

[pieguyn]

like holy christ you're fucking awful. no, the neighborhood wasn't "confirmed" anything, and I am not even the only one saying that.

and yes, if you have either 9-3-1 or 10-2-2, you usually need town to have a lot of power in order to balance it. this is simple shit...

[pieguyn]

btw, thinking I'm lying about my role requires me having decided pregame "o hey let's fake claim backup IC first post" and just hoping to fuck that I'd never be investigated and that there'd be nothing in the game that would be able to disprove the claim. what sense does that make as a scum strategy, again?

[pieguyn]

putting pisskop on ignore.

also, I'm going to go ahead and say that if Luna clears me and he attempts to continue to push me, I actually will just liability lynch him.

[pieguyn]

I frankly am more than OK with making you lose this game if you're town, just because you're fucking terrible.

plus, as I said, there is a part of me who is paranoid I should be having faith in you as a person and that you would only be this unintelligible if you were scum being dense on purpose.

[pieguyn]

if you were actually reading my posts, you would have seen that it was a hypothetical wherein Luna RB's me tonight and a kill happens.

in other words: if she clears me tonight, you will back off and admit you have absolutely no ground to stand on with this nonsense push, or be lynched.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia is far more willing to indulge pisskop on his insanity than I am.

[pieguyn]

that's L-1 and there's still a few things I want to look at before I'm ready for a hammer; someone unvote, please.

[pieguyn]

I don't want a derp hammer, and I don't want to risk him self-hammering.

[pieguyn]

he's being lynched today no matter what happens. there is literally no reason he needs to be at L-1 here.

[pieguyn]

What do you want to do today anyway? what hasnt been done today that will get done by waiting around?

for one I want to check the night actions properly to make sure what we have right now is, in fact optimal, but apart from that there's just some other things that I want to double-check reads-wise before going into night phase.

it shouldn't take that long, just give me like a day or two.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, can you walk me through why you don't see pisskop with Aero?

[pieguyn]

basically where I'm at is, if I work under the assumption pisskop is town, then if we're in 9-2-2, last scum is somewhere in {Cakez, Luna, GE}; I just really don't think GE looks like scum and I have reservations with the other two slots, so I'd probably just go ahead and commit.

the other issue is if I'm right about GE being town, pisskop will always vote town in a LYLO situation, so we effectively would only have tomorrow's lynch. I'm not sure if having Luna clearing me ... again ... would be a good idea, for this reason - it wouldn't even matter.

[pieguyn]

k.

I'm a bit worried that right now I'm being set up to be a safe kill tonight, but realistically it probably doesn't matter all that much (and you all know what my reads are if I die anyway).

vote: Aero

[pieguyn]

lets not set up lylo before we even get there pls

just be quiet and sheep someone who actually knows what they're doing.

you're the entire reason I even *need* to plan ahead in the first place and it's deplorable.

[pieguyn]

Cakez, then?

[pieguyn]

Pie, if you're town, I'm just gonna say that I know you know what you're doing and you're a nice enough player, but you've been sort of condescending and instead of working with me you kind of just called me dumb, which isn't going to do much to town, no matter how stupid the scenario seems to you.

I can be really toxic sometimes, but I usually direct it to someone's play. I hardly ever intend it on a personal level, and if it came off that way, I'm sorry.

[pieguyn]

I have literally no idea who it is if it's 10-3 and it isn't Cakez.

it isn't Nahdia or me, it isn't pisskop, I don't think it's GE, and Luna only worked as scum if it was 9-2-2.

[pieguyn]

why doesn't luna work with varsoon & wisdom again?

that isn't based on interactions, it's just a straight read on her play. I had a lot of reservations about her early game, but her interaction with beeboy is not the kind of thing she can fake as scum - in 9-2-2 though that didn't matter because in that case it wouldn't have been faked.

I don't know. if I wake up tomorrow, I need to take a serious look at her again and make sure I'm not just going completely wrong on the read here.

p-edit: GE just really doesn't look like scum at all. I legit dunno why anyone has that as a scum read.

[pieguyn]

9-2-2 means Luna would have been a WW and legitimately thought beeboy was on the mafia team, even though he ended up being town.

[pieguyn]

ugh I should have asked about this in more depth before voting.

what do you think is scummy about his play?

[pieguyn]

most of the arguments I remember seeing over the course of the game for GE's play being scummy I didn't think held much water. I thought his D1 was very town and I don't really think his play afterward was all that much worse.

I'll probably try talk more in-depth about my read on him tomorrow, if I'm still alive.

[pieguyn]

another thing is - I mean no offense to GE, but I really do not think he's the type of scum player who would think of an abstract play like no-killing every night so that town lynches the vig based on SK/multiball paranoia.

someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I remember him being a player who usually gets lynched early as scum and that would be some really next-level shit if he completely turned that around and thought to do something like that.

[pieguyn]

also it being 10-3 should just straight up clear me based on me railroading both Varsoon and Wisdom into the ground.

[pieguyn]

another thing is - I mean no offense to GE, but I really do not think he's the type of scum player who would think of an abstract play like no-killing every night so that town lynches the vig based on SK/multiball paranoia.

someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I remember him being a player who usually gets lynched early as scum and that would be some really next-level shit if he completely turned that around and thought to do something like that.

Well who WOULD you expect to make such a play?

Cakez, maybe Luna but I doubt it.

[pieguyn]

this game became trivialized with the no kill.

all we need to do is lynch Cakez today, then have Luna block GE. if GE is scum he's fucked because he can't kill and we'll have 2 lynches, if Luna is scum she's fucked because if she kills she confirms GE as town and herself as scum, and if she doesn't kill we'll have 2 lynches.

this assumes pisskop is town.

we might want to change the order around, since I feel pretty sure Cakez if scum is just a mafia tracker and would thus have no counter to it.

I don't want to rush today, in case I'm missing something.

[pieguyn]

I do not want to fight you guys over this.

I dont see her as town, you think she is, lets just talk about it.

if you don't want to "fight me" over it, then quit being a fucking idiot, how about that?

I'll quit berating you for being an idiot when you quit being an idiot.

[pieguyn]

a lyncher wouldn't keep the game going, the textbook implementation is that it loses if the game ends while it's still alive.

I would never have power-bussed my entire team the way I would have had I been scum here if I was running a "claim a confirmable role and just sit and hope that it never gets disproven" strategy, ever.

[pieguyn]

and I know you like to think that you were some huge part of the reason Wisdom got lynched, but no, you weren't. you did happen to be correct (even though I think you largely just made an assumption and were correct more via sheer coincidence than anything. it's possible that I'm wrong, I mostly didn't bring it up because there was no point either way), but I knew Wisdom was scum ever since the point where he made his EOD1 posts, I was forcing that lynch through D2 regardless of anything that had happened.

[pieguyn]

like frankly, pisskop, I *really* should not need to be explaining to you why I'm town here. it's patently obvious.

[pieguyn]

The question is what role does the scumteam benefit most from?

tracker? perhaps
blocker? maybe
Magicn conftown that isnt really conftown? yes.

what the fuck are you even on about here?

you think that BACKUP IC IS A SCUM ROLE *WITH AN IC IN THE FUCKING GAME*?

PLEASE DO EXPLAIN HOW THAT WORKS, OH PARAGON OF TOWN PLAY.

[pieguyn]

except for the part where the IC dies without revealing, and then the scum who fake claims backup IC is outed as scum.

10/10 SETUP DESIGN

[pieguyn]

YOU LITERALLY CANNOT MAKE A SCUM BACKUP IC WITH AN ACTUAL FUCKING IC IN THE GAME. BACKUP IC ONLY WORKS AS SCUM IF THERE IS NO IC IN THE GAME, SINCE IF AN IC DIES IT NEEDS TO BE ABLE TO CONFIRM ITSELF.

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

[pieguyn]

IC in the game, scum backup IC in the game, IC dies without revealing itself; scum backup IC then gains the ability to reveal itself as "town", which can't happen.

Holy fuck what am I reading.

[pieguyn]

The scum in the scenario I said wouldn't be forced to fake claim backup IC, so it wouldn't really be the setup's fault

it's a completely [[[REDACTED]]] fake claim if scum knows there's an IC in the game, for the same reason that if the IC dies without having revealed it gets outed as scum.

[pieguyn]

yes, yes, because forcing yourself to leave conftown alive the entire game or being outed as scum makes so much sense as a scum strategy - and even that is ignoring other factors, i.e. you might kill it on accident without knowing who it is, there might be something like a vig in the game who would kill it on accident, etc.

[pieguyn]

OK, let me revise 3071: it's a completely [[[REDACTED]]] fake claim regardless of whether you believe there's an IC in the game or not, since if there does happen to wind up being an IC in the game, and it dies without revealing, you get outed as scum.

I cannot believe that I actually need to explain this to people.

[pieguyn]

And i dont believe that you expect me to believe that's why nahdia's still alive.

Nahdia is alive because scum either deliberately played a "no kill every night and let town lynch the vig" strategy and they haven't had a chance to kill her yet (making a kill last night puts them in a similar losing position to what we have now except in certain scenarios, i.e. me being wrong about GE and him actually being ballsy enough to submit the kill), or there's something weird and the last scum can't kill for whatever reason.

On the other hand, what if cakez scum cant kill and track at the same time?

GIF usually lets the last scum kill and action in his games. I think the no kill last night was deliberate, regardless of who did it.

[pieguyn]

And i dont believe that you expect me to believe that's why nahdia's still alive.

Actually, i wrote this entirely unreadable somehow.
I meant that scum you would keep Nahdia alive coz your ruse would be over otherwise.

scum-me has literally no reason to even bother fake claiming backup IC and forcing myself into keeping an IC if there is one alive in the first place. how is this hard to understand?

[pieguyn]

@MOD: Happily Ever After rule?

[pieguyn]

scum refused to kill all game to frame pie

you aren't even reading my posts.

I literally just said that I think what happened was scum either can't kill, or no-killed every night to get everyone to lynch Aero based on SK/multiball paranoia, which is exactly what we did.

[pieguyn]

you still haven't thought about why scum-me decides to

1. fake claim a confirmable role in my first post
2. hope that either {there isn't an IC in the game, if there *is* I'll be able to hang on for dear life by keeping it alive every night} - bonus points because if there is no IC in the game there is literally no benefit to even bothering to claim backup IC as scum
3. hard bus both my partners into oblivion D1/D2
4. then just sit there and hope that I don't get fucked over by roles - this is more the case given role madness - that my claim is disproven, or that any other weird bullshit happens that could fuck me over.

like, that is literally what my scum strategy was if I was scum here and it's completely baffling that people can be dumb enough to think that this is an actual thing that happens. I might be OK as scum, and I get people being paranoid and shit, but this goes beyond paranoia, this is common fucking sense.

[pieguyn]

oh, and keeping the IC alive every night and hard bussing both my partners into oblivion D1/D2 means I not only need to endgame the IC, I need to win a 3p LYLO with it. that isn't a gamble I take, ever, ever, ever.

[pieguyn]

like maybe, on a *really* good day, I might say "fuck it, let's do something crazy" and decide to go for the backup IC claim first post. OK. but, if I was to do that, there is no universe where I consciously choose to bus ALL of my fucking partners when there was absolutely no need for me to do so (Wisdom was widely town read, Varsoon was somewhere in the middle but nowhere near being lynched), especially given how unlikely it is I'd actually be able to solo the game on that claim.

like, WTF?

[pieguyn]

i know, right?

[pieguyn]

no, it really isn't WIFOM, it's common sense. some things can be done as scum for WIFOM, but not shit like that that's just completely ridiculous and clearly suboptimal to the point where no amount of "WIFOM" is worth it.

do you have any response to 3089 and subsequent posts?

[pieguyn]

also, something I want to mention in passing is that Tarot was just a horrible, horrible game that I didn't want to play. I was in a really awful emotional state for most of it, I was being railroaded pretty much all of D1, and I was in a hydra with MS who was being really stupid and pretty much nonstop doing things that I didn't want to go along with, including, but not limited to, him also distancing with Wisdom, and just generally I didn't work well with my scum team at all and it was horrible.

so yeah I tried to cross-bus with Wisdom in that game, but I didn't do it well and while it was to some extent a conscious choice, my heart wasn't really into it, I did it because I felt pretty much forced to and I felt awful and it was a really easy place for me to weaponize all of my emotions. even outside of that, though, it *wasn't* entirely non-strategic - the aim when I actually was playing the game was a 2-person endgame with Aj the Epic, who had been falsely "cleared" and you can see me hard defending him based on the result on him in my replace-out post even though people widely speculated that the clear on him wasn't correct.

so yeah there are games when I bus but it's nowhere near the same situation as this would have been (Wisdom widely town read, Varsoon nowhere near lynch, no real pressure, lots of endgame potential) and 3089 is not a course of action I would take as scum, ever.

[pieguyn]

I am a survivor.

jesus christ, I have too many posts.

[pieguyn]

check my title

[pieguyn]

I don't know what 3105 means.

do you have any response to 3089?

[pieguyn]

literally

read 3089

explain why you think me-scum, out of all the possible ways I could choose to play this game, does all of that instead of ... literally anything else

explain why you think me-scum goes insane and decides right at the very start of the game to force myself into a strategy that has basically 1% chance of success unless literally all the stars align and I just get insanely lucky

and no, it isn't WIFOM, it's common fucking sense. this goes far beyond the point to where you can try to claim WIFOM, it's so ridiculously stupid that no amount of WIFOM is even worth it.

stop attempting to get in a pissing contest and actually read it and evaluate my play based on what I've done in the game, or you have no ground to stand on and you're just being [[[REDACTED]]]

[pieguyn]

like at this point, I have attempted to actually calm down and lay it out clearly instead of berating you for how stupid your push on me is.

you aren't even attempting to engage it and explain how you actually think my play makes sense coming from scum here, you're just continuing to push because... ???

[pieguyn]

...

You know what?

Fuck you.

[[[I had a request to GIF here that I wanted to invoke the "play to win" rule to have you force replaced because you very clearly are not attempting to lynch scum, you're just lynching me because you're pissed off that I lynched your "conf-town hood", despite them being very clearly not conf-town and you making no argument of any kind for why they were more likely town, but I've removed it because I'd just feel like crap doing it, so that isn't going to happen.]]]

You're a despicable player and a despicable human being. Don't sign up for any games I'm in in the future, I will not-so-kindly do the same to you.

[pieguyn]

vote: Cakez

@MOD: Indefinite V/LA.

I basically am just resigned to hoping this lynch hits scum, since if we don't there isn't any reason for me to even bother.

[pieguyn]

This game is literally autowin if you're town, but since you lack even the base level of intelligence needed to function as a human being, you fuck it up. And yeah, you'll just vote me in 4p and absolutely refuse to move your vote, so yeah you fuck it up.

[pieguyn]

Literally the only other way we could play this is to utility-lynch pisskop today, then have Luna block Cakez and gamble on GE being town instead of gambling on pisskop being town. At least that way we have two chances to hit scum instead of just one . . .

[pieguyn]

I am literally fucking shaking right now.

I've removed this thread from my bookmarks, I'll check back in in about two days. You all decide if you want to just lynch Cakez or if you want to go the other route and lynch pisskop -> Luna RBs Cakez and cover the case where Luna is scum as well (and pisskop in case he's playing more insane than I would be had I been scum here, but no he's just town), I'll just do whatever you all decide.

[pieguyn]

vote: pisskop

this is my preferred option, actually, since it's strictly better (wins if either of Cakez or Luna are scum vs. wins if Cakez is scum). plus it'd just be really satisfying to make him dead because he and his oversized ego has singlehandedly ruined this game since D1.

[pieguyn]

you e beem mothing but a selfish snide egotistical bitch.

Thanks for confirming to me that you are, in fact, just a terrible person.

Apparently GIF settled for just a warning, but, still doesn't change the fact you're a terrible person!

[pieguyn]

if we actually do go the pisskop route, Luna blocks you tonight.

this is probably the last thing I say for a while.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, how do you intend to win this game if pisskop is town, unless we're fortunate enough to hit scum today?

he'll just vote park me in 4p and sit there and absolutely refuse to move his vote.

[pieguyn]

Well, here's the thing. And I mean, we can no lynch again today to test this.

If scum can kill, they should have killed last night, specifically killed me. Because killing me while you're blocked doesn't matter since you'll be cleared anyway if I die. The only other possibility is that YOU'RE scum. And at this point I'm pretty much banking my game on that not being a thing.

So I don't think the final scum can kill and we're either going to be the final two or we're going to happy ever after.

I'm ok with no lynching and having Luna block me again. I do think scum can kill, though, and tbh no killing isn't even all that bad an option because it allows pisskop to continue being a complete moron instead of forcing him to accept the fact that I'm town and reevaluate (and even though it should in any other player list trivialize the game, doesn't matter when there's one person who will pretty much deterministically fuck it over).

I'd rather not happily ever after, though, that's boring :<

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, are you in agreement with what I wrote in 3214?

I thought about it more, and I actually do think the optimal scum play if we no lynch would be to just no-kill again and leave us in this same position again, or at least I can't think of any reason scum wouldn't do it regardless of whether they can kill or not, and... honestly I just wouldn't be able to take it if that happened and I had to endure this for another day. I've tried to just step away and disconnect myself from the game, but that hasn't stopped me from still obsessing over it in some way or another because the rational side of me, which swears by playing games as rigorously as possible, can't allow it.

I feel mostly sure that Cakez is the last scum and I'm ready to either just commit to it and let the game reach a conclusion one way or another, or commit to the lynch pisskop->block Cakez plan where we clear everyone out except GE. and again, the rational side of me swears on the latter option, since it's strictly better than just throwing our hands in the air and lynching Cakez and hoping to god that he flips scum, but I just don't have it in me to argue for it if people don't want it, so if you'd rather just go Cakez that's fine or if you want to propose something else I'll consider it. (even though it seems like people actually are willing to go with the pisskop option, so I guess people do want it... lol)

if you need more time to figure out if you want to listen to me and what you want to do then just let me know and I'll probably just go AFK and wait however long you need, but either way I just want this nightmare to end.

[pieguyn]

literally the only reason the alternative requires lynching him is because he will always vote me if the game reaches a XYLO situation and he is alive and I am not cleared by Luna.

[pieguyn]

that's correct.

assuming GE town, lynch pisskop -> Luna blocks Cakez;
if no kill, then we're in 5p, we have two lynches left and can lynch both Cakez and Luna,
if a kill happens then Cakez is clear which condemns Luna in 4p.

lynching Cakez doesn't give us a second chance regardless of who the scum is, since no matter how we play it, pisskop always either is in a gamestate where he picks between Luna and me (he'll always pick me) or Luna and GE (I have no faith he'd vote correctly here regardless of who the scum is). there are courses of action which lead to 4p with you and me both alive still, but then achieving a lynch is impossible since pisskop will never vote someone who isn't me, and it isn't optimal for scum to kill, so it'll lead to happily ever after, which I'd rather not.

I also want to make it clear that I have no intention of forcing anything. if you object strongly to this, I'll probably just go with whatever you decide (though I'd argue for Cakez lynch if the intent is to lynch last scum today).

[pieguyn]

we can shift it around to make any two of {Cakez, Luna, GE} dead, GE is just who I feel most strongly is town both through play and through the balance argument I made earlier.

I was going to make an actual town case on him at some point or another, but ugh I just don't feel like it now. I will say that 1. I really haven't thought that his play has looked like scum at all - it's pretty much how I felt about beeboy and I regret allowing myself to ignore my read and get caught up in all of the role shenanigans surrounding him, and 2. if you ISO him, I really just don't think his Wisdom interactions look like scum at all, even though I haven't analyzed them properly.

[pieguyn]

I guess Cakez-scum probably intends to win by lynching pisskop, hoping people decide that Luna should block me (he has to agree with it if people suggest Luna should block him even if he has no recourse, since otherwise he'd look like obvscum), making the night kill on Nahdia, then lynching GE the next day.

beyond that, I have no clue how anyone else if scum is playing to win this game, and his posts today feel really off, specifically as if he knows pisskop is bleeding town but that he has to lynch him anyway in order to win, so he kinda sorta just falls flat without having any conviction in his push, so maybe I am just being too paranoid.

kinda leaning back towards lynching Cakez and fuck whatever happens next because I don't even know if I'd fully trust any kind of plan at this point (i.e. if he's something like an ascetic tracker).

[pieguyn]

actually, yeah.

vote: Cakez

if he's town, then I'll probably just happily ever after and force scum into either doing the same or confirming me as town.

[pieguyn]

if we go with Cakez, the plan tonight is Luna blocks me and continues to do so until the end of the game.

[pieguyn]

Plus, if they do kill it would almost have to be the tracker or nahdia. And if Aidhan was killed then pie could conf and we really could live happily ever after

You're the entire fucking reason we can't just clear out all of {GE, Cakez, Luna} and be done with this game.

You have no right to sit here and soapbox about what "optimal" play is, you don't even know how to play.

[pieguyn]

but, whatever.

vote: No Lynch

Luna and Cakez both have free reign tonight, with the exception that they don't target me. see all of you tomorrow.

[pieguyn]

this will end in no kill and we'll just be back in the same position again tomorrow, even though the last scum almost definitely can kill (speculation based around them not having one should just stop). if you all need to actually do it to see that, fine, but this is just dragging the game.

[pieguyn]

either we proceed with pisskop lynch, Luna blocks Cakez, and we clear out all of {pisskop, Cakez, Luna} and make GE survive to the end, or we proceed with Cakez lynch and if it's wrong Luna blocks me until game reaches happily ever after.

[pieguyn]

we do not no lynch again.

there is not a scum who is entirely incapable of killing in this setup. mechanically, there is nothing unusual in the setup, it's just a bunch of uniquely arranged roles. something like a traitor who 1. doesn't inherit the kill when it's the last scum left and 2. doesn't get endgamed as the last scum and is forced to keep playing without being able to kill would fall under "unusual mechanics" and just isn't the kind of thing GIF would do in general.

what do people think of Cakez? I would rather not waste any more time on this game.

[pieguyn]

i'm really not sure. i mean, i could lynch Cakez I guess, i dont know. I'm pretty even between him and Gamma.

I'm still not sure why you actually think GE is scum.

[pieguyn]

ugh. I guess I can try to go into more detail on it, but it's a kind of read I don't know if I'd be able to explain in words well.

if you have specific points that are giving you reservations about him, though, I would like if you can talk to me. I think I'd be able to do a lot better at explaining why his play doesn't look like scum to me if I had specific points I could focus on.

[pieguyn]

literally the only person who thinks I could be scum here is pisskop, so I don't think it's anywhere near worth it for you to lynch yourself so I can confirm, especially when he won't listen to anything I say anyway even if I *was* to confirm myself.

GE's play looks very solid to me in that I literally cannot think of any compelling reason for him being scum at all. he has been trying to game-solve the entire game, he has been proactive about it, none of his reads come across as unreasonable or disingenuous to me (even if I don't necessarily agree with all of his points), and on top of that I really just do not think the way his claim came out D1 or his Wisdom interactions look like scum. all of this is more so the case to me when I take into account the fact that from what I've seen of GE's scum play, he is not such a great scum player and usually gets lynched very early in the game.

pisskop also looks very town to me, but I also think I trust GE enough to where if I could make everyone besides GE dead I'd do it.

Luna's D1 stuff looked really town to me, but I am not 100% sure since that's really the only major point I have for her being town, which is a part of why I don't feel *fully* comfortable just lynching Cakez and hoping for the best.

Cakez? doesn't really have much in terms of his play looking town besides my D1 read, which relatively speaking is fairly weak, and what happened with Varsoon/Wisdom D1, but if you think about the idea that it was a bus, none of this really means anything, plus it's very easy to genuinely have solid scum reads that you can act confident in as scum if you're bussing and have that layer of knowing that the view of the game you're presenting isn't just completely fake which makes a lot of my D1 rad invalid anyway.

[pieguyn]

*a lot of my D1 read

[pieguyn]

yeah.

[pieguyn]

even if he says he would, I don't trust that he actually would.

I do feel mostly sure the game is won if we make all of {pisskop, Cakez, Luna} dead regardless, ftr, which is why I would prefer if people could explain to me what issues they're actually having with GE's play here. from my POV, no one has given anything, so I don't understand why there's such a holdup about him.

[pieguyn]

scum literally can't kill regardless of who it is here, I think. they either try to kill one of Luna or Cakez, at which point the other comes out with a clear or a guilty on them and they've condemned themselves via POE, or they try to kill one of us, and they've condemned themselves via POE again as long as Luna and Cakez come out with clears on different players.

the only viable route to a scum victory here is to mislynch today and then win a claim/CC situation in 4p the next day, and even if we want to HEA this game instead of risking it on GE being town, we have basically a free lynch today since we can always just HEA it in 4p tomorrow.

or am I missing something?

[pieguyn]

I think what happened was N1 scum -> Aero, N2 N3 scum -> no kill in order to get town to lynch Aero, N4 N5 scum -> no kill because it literally is just too risky for them to make a kill (which is why I said earlier, the only way killing is optimal is if it's someone like GE and they are in fact ballsy enough to try to go for the kill and avoid the HEA scenario).

[pieguyn]

I don't want to happily-ever-after the game, it is just something I brought up because a lot of people were talking about it (including I thought you at one point. might be mistaken)

I am not sure that I get your point 2) but I'll go back and look again.

[pieguyn]

If both SirCakez & Luna are alive tonight, scum is going to continue being scared shitless of killing at night, meaning they we won't progress to 4p MYLO, we'll progress to 5p LYLO+1

oh.

the problem is that if it is one of {Cakez, Luna}, they *could* kill tonight and then force a 1v1 with the other tomorrow. or am I still missing something?

[pieguyn]

the other thing is that regardless of what we do, if there's no kill, we'll still only have 2 lynches to hit 3 potential scum.

[pieguyn]

I definitely agree that if we're following a plan it's optimal to lynch outside of Cakez/Luna. I think it would need to be pisskop, as I said before. the problem is that the plan wherein pisskop is lynched requires us to gamble on someone else being town; I think the best shot is GE.

the Cakez lynch was just on the table because I feel maybe 75% sure it ends the game and pisskop is making the game completely insufferable for me. it definitely isn't optimal.

[pieguyn]

if pisskop really wants to stop fighting, then if he promises to follow along with it, we could lynch Cakez and have Luna block GE and gamble on him being town instead.

[pieguyn]

that was the original plan I had in mind as soon as D5 opened with a no kill, which I had to abandon because of pisskop's ridiculous tunnel on me.

[pieguyn]

that was the original plan I had in mind as soon as D5 opened with a no kill, which I had to abandon because of pisskop's ridiculous tunnel on me.

moreover, honestly he literally had no reason to not accept this had he been scum here because it would have led into an uncontested win for him, so that's another reason for him being town, I guess.

[pieguyn]

as Nahdia and I just discussed, that plan is not correct since Cakez/Luna can make a kill and then 1v1 each other if one of them is scum, and we'd only have enough time to lynch one of them.

if we don't lynch pisskop: lynch Cakez -> Luna blocks you -> we clear out both {you, Luna}

if we do lynch pisskop: lynch pisskop -> Luna blocks Cakez -> we clear out both {Luna, Cakez}.

[pieguyn]

both of those plans make Luna dead?

the former plan relies on you being town, the latter relies on pisskop being town (which is what I would feel more comfortable with if he would promise to follow it).

[pieguyn]

if we don't lynch pisskop: lynch Cakez -> Luna blocks you -> we clear out both {you, Luna}

pisskop, if you explicitly agree to this plan and promise that you won't back out of it, then I'm fine with it.

the thing is, though, I proposed this exact plan in my first post after D5 started, and your reaction was most certainly not to agree with it, you continued going on with your ridiculous push on me. I have no reason to assume I can trust you in a 3p LYLO with you, me, and another person, unless I get explicit confirmation that you'll follow the plan and not go off on your own accord at any later stage of the plan.

[pieguyn]

_will you follow the plan, yes or no._

I want an explicit agreement - that after the Cakez lynch today, you either lynch GE and Luna in that order if no kills happen or Luna if a kill happens tonight when she blocks GE.

[pieguyn]

I mean I'm obviously the one keeping scum from killing.
Why would I be nokilling here as scum?

you can't kill either. if you were to kill someone, not only would whoever Luna blocked would be clear, but you would have to claim a track result and clear someone else anyway.

[pieguyn]

so I had a dream today that we ran this game out to a happily ever after without lynching Cakez and Cakez was the final scum. I thought I was in reality the entire time and I felt like complete shit over it until the point where I woke up.

I'm ready to end this nightmare and be done with it.

vote: Cakez

Nahdia, if you're with me still, please poke pisskop so that we can get an explicit agreement that the order after this is GE -> Luna and then I'll be ready (he seems to be entirely ignoring me), or if you're not I'll just wait I guess. Luna blocks GE tonight on a Cakez lynch.

[pieguyn]

I literally gave a tl;dr of all of my reads in 3295 if you want to talk to me about any of them.

besides, barring weird shenanigans, you won't have to worry about GE under the current plan, since either Luna clears him or he die.

[pieguyn]

said it before, I'll say it again: if you have specific things you want me to focus on with him talk to me and I feel I'd be able to explain it better. it isn't me not having a reason, it's just really hard for me to explain this sort of read without going into verbose mode (and honestly I just don't want to do that when not only is he going to be dead soon enough, but the game is probably solved anyway. you've seen me in verbose mode, so I'm sure you can see my point...), so it would be much easier if you could just talk to me about whatever reason you have doubt on him and I can discuss it that way instead. and if you don't remember his Wisdom interactions, ISO them...

the easiest reason for pisskop being town is that scum-him had literally no reason not to go along with me when I pushed the same plan I'm pushing now, which leads to a win for him, at D5 start, but apart from that, I'm in the same position with him as I am with GE.

[pieguyn]

What is the plan you're pushing now exactly? You've swapped it up a few times.

lynch you, Luna blocks GE. lynch GE -> Luna if no kill, lynch Luna if a kill happens.

This is pretty scummy, no?

not really?

in the first place, GE's read on Wisdom started out as what would be a hard bus if GE is scum, and he did it in a way that I don't think looks like distancing, in that I don't see it and think that it looks like someone coming up with what they think is a legitimate reason to take issue with their partner's play (especially when Wisdom would be the most competent scum player out of the three of them on that scum team), I see it and think that it looks like someone noticing Wisdom play way off from their usual perception of his play and then stumbling over it trying to firm up a read on him. but moving on, I have the opposite impression you seem to of this, don't really care that it was blatantly wrong - scum just do not overtly try to claim that they're reading two of their partners' posts as a mason soft, and no, it was not an excuse even though it's a misguided line of reasoning, he actually followed through on it D2 after Varsoon flipped with no hesitation at all instead of attempting to find some bullshit reason to get out of it.

even something like "oops, guess I was wrong about them softing masons, I still think Wisdom is town" would have been fine here had he been scum and when I was in a scenario where I was scum and I had faked role info that "confirmed" my partner as town, I would have done something similar if it had gone south (they were a motivator and motivated me N1 and the town vig N2 and I was attempting to claim that this made them confirmed town, I would have just said "WTF motivator was a scum role?" and argued my way out of it if she had been lynched). not the *exact* same situation, but the same principle would apply here, so...

/shrug

[pieguyn]

Don't you think scum him would be 1v1ing me right now? u.u

I think he 1. probably can't come up with any convincing argument on your play, or 2. can't push you strategically because the current plan covers you anyway, so pushing you would just lead to the plan being executed and him losing.

if you read the nuance of his posts closely, though, he isn't pushing GE, he is pushing me - this, on the other hand, is something that he *would* do as scum because he has no real other option to get out of the plan I'm attempting to enact besides pushing pisskop, which he already tried to do yesterday without success.

[pieguyn]

like honestly, just based on how everyone has been playing, at this point I feel very sure lynching him ends the game (and that pisskop is town even if it doesn't) and I'm not sure why we're delaying it.

[pieguyn]

at this point though there literally aren't any options left.

either pisskop is scum, or the game is over (barring something like GE being ascetic).

[pieguyn]

@All: Merry Christmas!

^^^

[pieguyn]

if you feel really really strongly about it, I wouldn't be opposed to switching the plan around so that Luna blocks pisskop instead of GE and GE survives to the end. I don't think what you're saying about him "disappearing" is even true, though, and again he just doesn't look like scum to me.

go back and read starting from 3044. the reason scum-pisskop would continue to react the way he did there instead of accepting the plan where he wins is... ?

[pieguyn]

/shrug

does anyone have any objections to Cakez lynch, pisskop block, lynch or clear pisskop -> lynch Luna?

[pieguyn]

we're not happily ever after'ing.

what people need to do is either raise an objection to 3355, or we go ahead and proceed under that plan.

[pieguyn]

this just feels wrong

unvote:

what, specifically, is giving you reservations over it? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

[pieguyn]

do you want any more time to think things over or do you think we might as well go ahead with it?

[pieguyn]

vote: Cakez (L-1)

anyway, Luna blocks pisskop tonight

[pieguyn]

so after the Cakez flip I thought about things a _lot_ to make sure I wasn't going down the wrong path anywhere with this plan. I drew a few conclusions from this.

1. I was entirely wrong in my assumption that GE wasn't a good scum player - he has had games where he was fairly obviously scum, but he has also had games where he's played well and in one case actually pretty much carried his scum team. I am actually not sure what game I saw which had scum-him being lynched D1, since I didn't find it on review. in either case, this prompted me to do an actual, proper meta dive on GE to make sure I wasn't going wrong with the read on him.

to be honest, after diving into his meta a bit, I still think he's very likely town here, just that I was wrong in my initial assumption of his play and it's nowhere near lock-town like I thought it was (maybe like 60~70% instead of ~100%). I might explain this in a separate post if people contest this, as well as more about why I think his play looks town in general, but going into the next point:

2. I went back and reviewed Luna again, and I still feel very good about her being among the set of players we're making dead. in fact, barring what she did with beeboy, I've actually arrived at a scum read on the rest of her play after reviewing it. again, might explain this in a separate post but I feel pretty OK with the idea of lynching her before pisskop here since I still don't really see pisskop's play here making sense coming from scum.

3. I'm putting this in a separate point because I think it's relevant enough, but first off, I doubt a hypothetical scum-GE with a role that wasn't goon attempts the VT claim in the way that he did, barring certain corner scenarios (i.e. Wisdom coaching him into doing it). I think that probably with a no-vanilla scum team, the scum team realizes/discusses that this is role-madness in pregame, which makes claiming like that unless you're actually vanilla a fairly risky play. I think this also points to Luna scum, because from a balance POV, Luna-town here would mean that we have RB, tracker, 1x bulletproof miller vig, and IC and backup IC (which in any universe should be two confirmed town) to rail on a scum team of two faith healers and a goon. on the other hand I still think 1x bulletproof miller vig is broken as hell and would necessitate a full counter, especially given GIF's ideas of setup balance; RB works well enough for this since functionally that means the vig is completely useless once it's forced to claim until/unless the RB is lynched at some point, and I don't *really* know if two faith healers can really be considered enough a counter to that + all the other roles (which they can do nothing against).

4. Luna-scum also gives a trivial explanation for the initial no kill back on N2, and it's also a play that I think would be fairly typical of her in that position now that I think about it a bit more, but this probably isn't a tell.

[pieguyn]

another point that I just thought of: if the scum team had faith healer/faith healer/goon, the goon should have done the kill N1, not one of the faith healers. so if GE is scum, he absolutely did decide to go and early-claim VT, for no particular reason (since even though I'm town reading for it he can't gamble on people town reading him for it hard enough for it to be worth it, especially when he hasn't *really* demonstrated the ability to make risky plays as scum before) when he would have known it was a role-madness setup.

bonus points for this coz he expressed back on D1 he wasn't familiar with role madness games having a VT in them, which would be a pretty neat bluff if he is in fact scum here

[pieguyn]

well, this makes it easy.

Luna lied about her target for some reason yesterday. I think she probably did block Cakez since what happened with Cakez at D6 start is in line with what I know GIF does when an investigative role is roleblocked and doesn't get any result, but then she goes and claims she blocked GE.

[pieguyn]

vote: TD37

Nahdia, let's say we lynch Luna's slot today and then it ends up flipping town and you have to choose between GE and pisskop the next day. what would you think?

fwiw, if the last scum can't kill at all then we just win, so I'm not too worried about what the implications are if they can't kill.

[pieguyn]

it would not surprise me if he skimmed enough of the game to know what was going on (the fact that Luna had claimed, the position the game was in) and then faked not having read any of the game. on top of this, it's probably also possible that he legitimately missed the situation behind your/my claims, or that he wanted to do this anyway hoping to go for a "maybe people will look at this as a fake town slip" approach.

[pieguyn]

for the record, I have way too much stuff standing on Luna's play that regardless of what happens I do not want that slot at endgame (kinda unfair to TD37 if he is town, but them's the breaks in a situation like this). I'm mostly just thinking ahead to what happens if he ends up being town since I'd rather not have it fuck over the game if I'm wrong here.

let me know if you want me to be not-lazy and make the Luna case (this applies to everyone else too if they're not in agreement with the read here).

[pieguyn]

yeah, ok...

how much of this game have you *actually* read? or are you basing this solely off our roles? or... ?

[pieguyn]

yeah, whatever.

I suddenly have a lot less reservation about continuing with the plan where GE survives.

[pieguyn]

GE, you're in agreement that the last scum is one of {TD37, pisskop}, correct?

[pieguyn]

@MOD: VC please

[pieguyn]

in case it's not obvious, I think you're just making this up.

you probably should have remembered to send the mod a ping first before claiming that he sent you a correction PM.

[pieguyn]

to clarify, I don't believe that GIF specifically sent you a correction PM, in between your posts 3411 and 3412 (with only a minute separating them), and that he wouldn't have sent this PM, i.e. anytime yesterday after seeing that you had claimed a Cakez block N6.

now, I imagine this is the part where you go radio silent and hope people don't agree with what I'm saying.

[pieguyn]

and if GIF had sent it sometime before 3411, I imagine you would have commented on it immediately or commented on it at the same time as your first post in one way or another, not brought it up as a completely separate point in 3412.

[pieguyn]

moreover, I didn't realize it at the time, but after seeing Cakez' reaction when D6 opened, him being blocked doesn't seem like an error (which would have occurred in a very conveient tandem with this supposed "error" where you were sent the wrong target), it seems like exactly what happened.

I know because I've had an investigate in a GIF setup before and I got RB'ed the night I used it, and he didn't send me anything and I was like "wait, wtf?" until I asked him where my result was.

[pieguyn]

so he sent it in between 3405 and 3411, you got the notification saying you had a new message, and you made 3411 in this game without checking your PM box first? despite the fact that there was a fairly obvious discrepancy with your actions and that a mod error FYPOV would have been likely?

[pieguyn]

see, the thing is, I don't think GIF was even around at the point where you're claiming he sent you the PM. I imagine GIF will come in here and post a vote count around 4 or 5 hours from now, which if you so much as ISO him in this game is his usual timing for this game; if he had actually seen you claiming an action that wasn't in line with what actually happened, he would have told you ~19 or 20 hours ago, before you made 3404/3405.

[pieguyn]

i'm actually not 100% opposed to being lynched.

It means pieguyn is confirmed tomorrow either way (as town or scum, that is) and then chooses who she wants to take to the end of the game.

Alternatively, scum reveals they can kill, pieguyn dies at night, and whoever Dominator blocked decides between the final two unclears.

Neither is exactly a terrible situation.

Nahdia, TD37 literally just scum slipped. he's outright lying here and he's gone radio silent hoping that if he does so, people will ignore him as you're doing here and he'll have a chance to argue his way out of it.

even regardless of reads, there is no universe where lynching you should be on the table. all that does is take away one of our lynches. right now, we have 2 chances to hit scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE}, and if you get lynched I'll either be stuck in a 4p endgame with only one chance to hit said scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE} *with* pisskop who won't listen to anything I post (especially important because I'm pretty sure TD37's slot is the final scum here) or I'll be killed which arguably might be even worse.

the alternative - both of us just being off of the table - is correct here, but putting TD37 off does nothing besides the fact that it forces a no kill tonight. this isn't necessary at this point since at least one of us is guaranteed to be alive tomorrow, so we'll be able to decide the lynch anyway.

what I want to do is lynch TD37 today, since that's the only person who I think makes any sense at all as scum here (both based on Luna's play, his play, the setup, and him doing something that at the very least definitely appears to be a scum slip - he might come in with some explanation that I haven't thought of but based on how he's acting I don't think I'm wrong here) - I'm considering what happens if he ends up being town in advance solely because I've been wrong on my past 3 preferred lynches, but at this point, I think pisskop and GE both look so much better that I don't consider the alternate plan of lynching one of them and leaving TD37 alive to force a no kill worth pursuing. it's just an issue of, which of pisskop or GE do we pick. we either decide this today or tomorrow, no reason we can't think about it today.

[pieguyn]

I just don't get it. WHY would Luna lie about who she blocked? And WHY would she block SirCakez at all?

@mod What result would a hypothetical tracker who was roleblocked receive? No result or no visit?

at this point, there are multiple explanations for all of this that don't rely on Luna lying about being blocked (which was something I didn't get at first either but I don't really care about the why in situations like this, someone is lying somewhere in here either way). it might be possible that, for instance, TD37 just mis-claimed his N5 target and felt that if he tried to say "o wait I misread my PM, I actually blocked GE" he'd face scrutiny for it, and tried to fake the mod interaction to make it sound more natural (yeah, the end result was that it sounded fake as hell but him-scum wouldn't have realized that if he got caught up in thinking along those lines).

the Luna lying about her target explanation operates under the assumption that Cakez would have seen a "no result" and mistakenly assumed it was a no visit, but I don't think this is as unlikely as the explanation where all of these coincidences somehow just happened one after the other.

[pieguyn]

I know what GIF's schedule is like (see what I said about the timing of the VC), I am practically positive he was not around to check this game at the point where TD37 claimed he sent him the correction PM and that TD37 mis-stepped by not sending GIF a ping first before claiming the mod communication.

as further proof of this, my original plan was to wait about an hour and send GIF a ping, at which point I'd have bet a fair amount that I wouldn't have got any response to it for far more than 3~4 hours (mirroring the timing of TD37's posts, + 24 hours), but the question you just sent him works well enough as a ping and it's already in the game thread, so. it's possible now that he's seen what I'm attempting to do that he's paying more attention to the game than before and that he'll just troll me, but either way, notice the timing of when he answers the question and if he takes forever (until this evening) that should give you an idea.

[pieguyn]

this all also happens to fall on top of Luna's play, which I actively scum read (in direct opposition to GE and pisskop who I think both look fairly town).

[pieguyn]

I didn't have an explicit scum read on her play until I saw Cakez's flip - at that point I mostly still thought her interaction with beeboy was OK enough as a town tell and was ambivalent on the rest of her play - but now that Cakez has actually flipped and I've actually reevaluated and seriously thought about the read on her and my reads elsewhere in the game, I'm pretty sure she wasn't town here.

I'm kind of kicking myself because I noticed a lot of things off about her play D1, which I didn't pressure her about (or even really talk about at all in the game thread) because I don't like provoking her, and then beeboy happened and I just wrote her off as town and forgot the rest of her play.

[pieguyn]

killing someone means he claims a clear on someone and basically has to rely on winning the 1v1 in 4p today with either of pisskop or GE, in a position where based on both your reads, my reads and the plan we were enacting he's almost definitely the next lynch. if he no kills and tries to shake things up by doing something unexpected, he might potentially throw people off and give himself more room to maneuver. I think this is what he was going for with the block/push on you, which remains pretty much nonsensical from a town POV to me.

I'm also tossing up the possibility that GIF actually did throw a scum role that can't execute the kill into the setup, especially since Luna and TD37 have both individually made posts suggesting that if they're scum here their choice to no kill this entire time was involuntary, but if that's what it is it doesn't matter anyway. (if I had to hazard a guess it'd probably have been inspired by Patchouli from FG's original Touhou UPick, which would also make GIF's "there is no Remilia Scarlet in the game" pretty hilarious, but that's just speculative so not much of a point in thinking about it besides bragging rights)

[pieguyn]

I got it on tuesday at 1:44 AM

what is this in GMT?

[pieguyn]

you're basically saying that you received the PM before you made 3404 and 3405, and made those two posts and then *left without* even checking the PM and came back later and only checked it after making 3411.

I continue to read this as complete damage control; I don't believe there's any way this is actually what happened.

[pieguyn]

..i think it happened

pleeeeeeeeeeaseeeeeeee don't fucking do this to me.

[pieguyn]

like even outside of all this I am pretty sure GIF was actually just asleep at the point where he's claiming he sent the PM.

p-edit: you didn't draw anything onto yourself. the only reason it's as much of a focus as it is is because I'm specifically making it such a huge talking point.

[pieguyn]

pie i'll trust you and if it's wrong i want you to promise you won't hate yourself.

we have at least another day anyway.

OK. I promise I won't.

I'm nowhere near ready to actually lynch, though. I do want to think about what happens next if it turns out I'm just wrong about this.

[pieguyn]

if you think GE is more likely than pisskop I'd be fine with that, I guess.

how certain are you that pisskop is town?

[pieguyn]

I'm curious as to why, but at the same time if it gets to that point I don't think it'd be any better than a coin flip if I were to make a judgement call either way myself so I'd probably just end up following you anyway. I've tried to think about where I might be going wrong on either read and I haven't found anything significant on either of them.

[pieguyn]

I think that nahdia should reveal IC. If he does that will comfirm pie as well.

(don't mean this in an accusatory way so much as if you're town you weren't here and probably not aware of this) we've considered this and this is impossible because if we do this it means pisskop is pretty much guaranteed to just vote me 100% of the time regardless of what happens, even though in any logical universe it'd confirm me along with them. yes, I'm aware of how incredibly stupid it is. we all are, we've tried.

[pieguyn]

?? If that were the case why isn't he on you right now? And why does that matter?

... you're joking, right?

another question, who are your current scum reads and why?

[pieguyn]

have you done anything along the lines of ISO'ing him or reading back through the game?

p-edit: pisskop is a complete idiot and somehow believes that I'm scum here, has stated that he would continue to do so even if Nahdia was to reveal themselves, and is entirely ignoring every other player in the game telling him that what he is saying makes no sense. if the game gets to a MYLO situation where you need every town player to agree in order to lynch scum and Nahdia reveals themselves (meaning I'd no longer be able to), this means that the game becomes impossible to win.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, why do you think pisskop is the most likely remaining town?

if it came down to him vs. GE, I honestly would lynch him solely because I would not be able to live with myself if I let him win by being emotionally abusive as a deliberate scum strategy. that plus outside of his play D2, he's taken no consistent stance on anything the entire game besides 1. his stance on me and 2. attempting to use the fact he had a neighborhood with dwlee/Varsoon to defend Varsoon from me D1.

I'm also trying to consider the fact that both Cakez and you have had notable experience with him, but you two seem to have read him opposite from each other.

[pieguyn]

I also kind of think that once the situation between me and him got as far as it did, him trying to back off and play the "I don't want to fight you over this" card makes more sense from scum-him because it was obvious if it kept going like it was I'd just lynch him without even giving a fuck about his alignment.

[pieguyn]

I don't really know to what extent I should question this since I don't know how reliable my read here is, but I don't want it entirely unsaid, either.

[pieguyn]

But I thought we established that scum can't kill

if scum can't kill then we literally just win, but either way, there isn't any reason not to plan around the worse scenario (scum being able to kill) just in case.

And if pie guy wont trust you after a reveal who says he trusts you now. Either way we have the same result

... no, it's not the same result. pay attention.

1. I cannot inherit Nahdia's IC ability if they have already used it.
2. pisskop will not vote me outside of endgame (3p/4p), since there isn't any reason not to wait and see if scum kills Nahdia and lets me confirm myself.
3. pisskop will always vote me in endgame if I am not confirmed.

if Nahdia confirms themselves, then that means if we miss today and pisskop is town the game is a practically guaranteed loss. if Nahdia continues to hold off on confirming (as they've been doing), then even if we miss today, a mislynch on me continues to be impossible, and pisskop either throws the game into a happily ever after or realizes that he won't ever be able to get his lynch on me and the game is winnable.

in any logical universe I should be clear, yeah, but this isn't a logical universe, this is "pisskop is the worst player I've ever played with if he's town here".

[pieguyn]

also @TD37, respond to the first line of 3464.

I still think there's almost 0% chance that the sequence of events I described in 3438 happened; I'm attempting to give you a chance to prove me wrong, but you don't even look like you're trying to scum hunt here.

[pieguyn]

have you done anything along the lines of ISO'ing him or reading back through the game?

p-edit: pisskop is a complete idiot and somehow believes that I'm scum here, has stated that he would continue to do so even if Nahdia was to reveal themselves, and is entirely ignoring every other player in the game telling him that what he is saying makes no sense. if the game gets to a MYLO situation where you need every town player to agree in order to lynch scum and Nahdia reveals themselves (meaning I'd no longer be able to), this means that the game becomes impossible to win.

Who is the antecedent?
Pisskop- No
Nahdia- Skimmed

GE.

also, see pisskop's latest series of posts for why I claim he's a complete idiot and that there isn't any universe where I'm in an endgame with him where he doesn't just vote me one way or the other (even though he doesn't explicitly say it).

[pieguyn]

yeah, and you try to sit there and claim there exists an endgame that doesn't end in you voting me one way or the other.

you frankly should have been force replaced the moment you threw a *gendered* insult at me.

[pieguyn]

you literally got mod warned for it, so.

[pieguyn]

Is it the guy whio literally fingered out the scumteam as a liar?

for the record, TD37, this (speaking of pisskop) isn't what happened. what happened was that I caught Varsoon almost immediately, he threw a hissy fit at me because he had a neighborhood with dwlee and Varsoon and went "omigawd can we not lynch someone in my precious hood!!11", I caught Wisdom at the tail end of D1, I open D2 by voting Wisdom and very obviously intending to drive a lynch on him, and then *after* that on D2 he comes out saying Wisdom was scum (which, honestly, was done in a way I would have questioned if I wasn't sure that Wisdom was scum - he claimed "his role states he's in every neighborhood" and claimed that meant Varsoon and Wisdom were fake claiming a neighborhood together, but did not, and still has not, clarified whether his role actually explicitly states this or whether it is just an assumption he made).

then, D3, he pulls the same "omigawd can we not lynch someone in my precious hood!!11" (he had another neighborhood with beeboy and dwlee), insisted they were "conftown" and explained literally nothing about what happened in the hood or why he had town reads on the people in the hood for their neighborhood posts, despite multiple people telling him that they weren't "conftown" and asking him to actually explain these reads, played a contrarian on purpose, and has spent the entire rest of the game pushing me pretty much solely because he's pissed off that I lynched the people in his precious hood and it's devolved from there.

he's probably going to claim this is "spreading misinformation", but you can ask literally anyone in the game who isn't him and they will tell you what I'm saying is what happened.

is he scum for all of this? probably not, despite how much I want to lynch him regardless for how abusive he's been the entire game, but that's exactly why I refuse to enter an endgame with him with Nahdia having outed themselves.