Mini 1856 - This Mafia Game is for pieguyn (Game Over)

[Aeronaut]

Or at the very least, I see her partner(s) saying you need to fucking stop this in their chat, and we know that Varsoon and Wis had a hood

[Aeronaut]

I'll leave it up to pieguyn. If she wants me to confirm, I will.

She won't.

[Gamma Emerald]

We need some way to avoid overlapping blocks and tracks without telegraphing actions.
Each one should probably give a set of 3 targets.

[Nahdia]

no.

[pieguyn]

... what the fuck am I even reading?

1. if we're in 9-2-2, then Aero is scum. there is no two-person scum team in this game that does not include him; Nahdia and I cannot be a scum team and arguments along the lines of "you two need to confirm yourselves" do not hold water. Nahdia is confirmed town by virtue of my role; if anything what needs to happen is that they don't use the IC so that if scum decides to kill them I can use it.

2. we are not no lynching. I'll probably lay out why this is bad in a separate post at some point, after I've had some more time to think.

3. the "pisskop is not the entire game" argument doesn't work when if for instance the game was to progress to a 3p LYLO, then yes, he would be the entire game. that's the most polarized scenario, but I would rather not have to deal with him being a fucking moron who is playing to a scum win con the rest of the game. I don't like to be reckless in scenarios like this.

I'm clarifying all of this because it is ridiculous how many people in this game have no idea how theory works, both from today and at twilight yesterday as well.

I want to just scream bullshit at Aero trying to say "durr if you don't confirm how can I trust you?". I should probably come back and look at it again when I'm less emotional.

[pieguyn]

here's the issue with this game.

I think I know who the other WW is if we're in a 9-2-2 scenario, and if it's who I think it is, literally fuck this game.

[pieguyn]

So, here's what I think.

We've got seven players left. I understand why this might be baised, but why not just block me and we NL today? I feel like I don't trust you people to make Pie and Nahdia actually confirm themselves once you've lynched me. I mainly trust pisskop to do it, but I don't think that he will.

I'm not going to make any more kills regardless if you block me or not.

so let me get this straight: you are worried that this was 9-2-2 and that me and Nahdia are scum, correct?

what the hell do you think has happened to all the kills if this is the case? if this is what's going on, then both teams missed their kills N1 and we missed our kills N2 and N3. and no, "scum teams don't get kills" is a silly reason.

[Nahdia]

it's Remilia Scarlet

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 4.01

Aeronaut (1):

SirCakez

Not Voting:

Aeronaut, pieguyn, Nahdia, Luna Fox, Gamma Emerald, pisskop

With

7

alive,

4

to lynch.

The deadline is in whatever.

it's Remilia Scarlet

[GuyInFreezer]

Or they've been shooting Aero and Aero has a full bulletproof instead of an X-Shot one.
OR Or, Aero shot a teammate N1 (is that even allowed?)

@mod: can mafia kill their own teammate?

Yes.

[Aeronaut]

... what the fuck am I even reading?

1. if we're in 9-2-2, then Aero is scum. there is no two-person scum team in this game that does not include him; Nahdia and I cannot be a scum team and arguments along the lines of "you two need to confirm yourselves" do not hold water. Nahdia is confirmed town by virtue of my role; if anything what needs to happen is that they don't use the IC so that if scum decides to kill them I can use it.

How do you possibly deduce that it's impossible for there to be a team without me?

2. we are not no lynching. I'll probably lay out why this is bad in a separate post at some point, after I've had some more time to think.

I look forward to it, but you're also not the only vote in the game.

I'm clarifying all of this because it is ridiculous how many people in this game have no idea how theory works, both from today and at twilight yesterday as well.

Theory is called theory and not fact for a reason Pie.

I want to just scream bullshit at Aero trying to say "durr if you don't confirm how can I trust you?". I should probably come back and look at it again when I'm less emotional.

I don't know what to tell you, sorry. You could very easily clear this all up pretty fast.

So, here's what I think.

We've got seven players left. I understand why this might be baised, but why not just block me and we NL today? I feel like I don't trust you people to make Pie and Nahdia actually confirm themselves once you've lynched me. I mainly trust pisskop to do it, but I don't think that he will.

I'm not going to make any more kills regardless if you block me or not.

so let me get this straight: you are worried that this was 9-2-2 and that me and Nahdia are scum, correct?

what the hell do you think has happened to all the kills if this is the case? if this is what's going on, then both teams missed their kills N1 and we missed our kills N2 and N3. and no, "scum teams don't get kills" is a silly reason.

Why? This game is clearly meant to fuck with us.

The same logic could be applied to your argument; why are you so sure it's 2:2:9 if there weren't any kills?

[pieguyn]

Varsoon - neighbor faith healer
Wisdom - neighbor faith healer

pieguyn - backup IC
Luna Fox - roleblocker
Gamma Emerald - VT
Nahdia - IC
SirCakez - tracker
Aeronaut - some sort of BP miller vig
pisskop - neighbor VT

drealmerz7 - nurse
beeboy - neighbor VT
Dwlee99 - neighbor VT
mhsmith0 - bomb vendor

i looked at the roles we have so far and there isn't actually as much power in this setup as i was thinking there was. i could easily see this balancing as a 10-3 if one of the big PRs remaining in the setup (one of Cakez, Luna, almost definitely Cakez given Luna does not work as single-faction scum here at all) is scum, although i still am not quite sure how he or anyone else would justify no killing every night.

this is what i want to do

lynch Aero today -> if he flips town, then it basically confirms we're in 10-3, with one mafia left. from here, i think this pretty heavily implies Cakez-scum, but i would consider doing something along the lines of Luna blocking pisskop or GE (announcing her target), Cakez having free reign again since we cover more bases that way, even though Luna blocking Cakez is probably also fine. the last mafia is forced into either continuing to no kill, or clearing at least one player, which makes this game pretty broken with both Luna's RB and Cakez' track in play.

if he flips WW, then it confirms we're in 9-2-2, with one WW left. from here i like Luna having free reign and Cakez tracking Luna; Luna if scum, which i would be very worried about in 9-2-2, is forced to either no kill, or kill Cakez and clear a player, and if the last scum is someone else, again same sort of broken position as we'd be in 10-3 with both the RB and the track in play. from there we have two lynches to hit the remaining werewolf - i'm not exactly sure why no lynch is an option here when all it would accomplish with 1 KPN is taking away a chance to hit the remaining WW, but i'll get more into that later in this post.

if he flips SK - i don't think this will happen but for completeness - we're in the same scenario we're in if he flips town

no lynch is completely awful here, for a lot of the reasons Nahdia pointed out. if we no lynch then for one, we waste a lynch, since we go from 7p (three lynches) to 6p (two) - this is fairly basic math so i'm not sure why it's even on the table, but even further, none of our potential clears would be unambiguous due to the likelihood of this being 9-2-2, and moreover, if we're in 9-2-2 then the WW team could easily just go rogue tonight, let Aero get lynched tomorrow and we're left in a not so great position with 4p, only one lynch remaining and the WW team having basically two free kills on whatever players or PRs they see fit. no lynch wouldn't tell us anything about what setup we're playing and we generally wouldn't be able to trust Aero to do what he says he'd do. i am noticing both Aero and Luna attempting to gear up for this and it is a part of reason i want to figure out some way to counter a hypothetical scum-Luna here via night actions in case we're in 9-2-2, as well as my read on her overall, but either way, no lynch is just really bad here no matter what setup we're in

[pieguyn]

How do you possibly deduce that it's impossible for there to be a team without me?

9-2-2 would mean you're a WW who's claiming your scum kills as a "vig". anything else doesn't work for the exact reason you said later in the post: there haven't been any kills.

personally if this is what was happening and I was in your position I woulda just went rogue last night and ate a lynch today, but continuing to slow play the vig claim also works.

[Aeronaut]

How do you possibly deduce that it's impossible for there to be a team without me?

9-2-2 would mean you're a WW who's claiming your scum kills as a "vig". anything else doesn't work for the exact reason you said later in the post: there haven't been any kills.

personally if this is what was happening and I was in your position I woulda just went rogue last night and ate a lynch today, but continuing to slow play the vig claim also works.

even more evidence i'm pretty clearly town

[pieguyn]

um, no, not really. it's what I'd do, but both options are fine - it comes down to preference.

[Aeronaut]

Yeah.

[Aeronaut]

Alright, then we should get one thing out of the way before anything else happens.

@Pie/Nadia

Do you understand that tomorrow, after I'm flipped green, no matter what, you

must

confirm yourselves? There should be no more reasons why you can't at that point because if it's another 2p team, we're then in LYLO. If you do not confirm, this should be considered a scum claim. Do you get this?

[pieguyn]

I'm 100% fine with it if, and only if, pisskop promises me that once it happens, he'll quit being an idiot, realize that I'm town, and not vote me or get weirded out on me again for the rest of the game.

[Aeronaut]

I feel like even Pisskop isn't going to deny a mod confirmed result, pie

[pieguyn]

Nahdia confirming themselves doesn't strictly clear me. after all, in pisskop-land, I could just be scum who guessed that a backup IC claim would work, went completely balls-to-the-wall and claimed it first post, and sat and hoped there'd be nothing in the game that would disprove the claim.

[pieguyn]

if you throw out any sort of weird ideas like "scum teams don't have kills", what does the gamestate look like from your POV?

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to think about if 10-3 still works with both Cakez and Luna as town. OTOH, I actually am not sure

[pieguyn]

I think it probably would, but the last scum would also be a PR.

[Aeronaut]

if you throw out any sort of weird ideas like "scum teams don't have kills", what does the gamestate look like from your POV?

I don't know Pie, I see it as possible considering the weird bullshit in this setup that we've already seen.

[Nahdia]

What weird bullshit?