Mini 1856 - This Mafia Game is for pieguyn (Game Over)

[pisskop]

Well, assuming scum cant kill and we have 2 confs we can just lynch down to a win.

[pisskop]

But when I suggested it back a few days ago I was putting it out for completionisms sake. I didnt think wed consider it.

[pieguyn]

i'm actually not 100% opposed to being lynched.

It means pieguyn is confirmed tomorrow either way (as town or scum, that is) and then chooses who she wants to take to the end of the game.

Alternatively, scum reveals they can kill, pieguyn dies at night, and whoever Dominator blocked decides between the final two unclears.

Neither is exactly a terrible situation.

Nahdia, TD37 literally just scum slipped. he's outright lying here and he's gone radio silent hoping that if he does so, people will ignore him as you're doing here and he'll have a chance to argue his way out of it.

even regardless of reads, there is no universe where lynching you should be on the table. all that does is take away one of our lynches. right now, we have 2 chances to hit scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE}, and if you get lynched I'll either be stuck in a 4p endgame with only one chance to hit said scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE} *with* pisskop who won't listen to anything I post (especially important because I'm pretty sure TD37's slot is the final scum here) or I'll be killed which arguably might be even worse.

the alternative - both of us just being off of the table - is correct here, but putting TD37 off does nothing besides the fact that it forces a no kill tonight. this isn't necessary at this point since at least one of us is guaranteed to be alive tomorrow, so we'll be able to decide the lynch anyway.

what I want to do is lynch TD37 today, since that's the only person who I think makes any sense at all as scum here (both based on Luna's play, his play, the setup, and him doing something that at the very least definitely appears to be a scum slip - he might come in with some explanation that I haven't thought of but based on how he's acting I don't think I'm wrong here) - I'm considering what happens if he ends up being town in advance solely because I've been wrong on my past 3 preferred lynches, but at this point, I think pisskop and GE both look so much better that I don't consider the alternate plan of lynching one of them and leaving TD37 alive to force a no kill worth pursuing. it's just an issue of, which of pisskop or GE do we pick. we either decide this today or tomorrow, no reason we can't think about it today.

[Nahdia]

I just don't get it. WHY would Luna lie about who she blocked? And WHY would she block SirCakez at all?

@mod What result would a hypothetical tracker who was roleblocked receive? No result or no visit?

[pieguyn]

I just don't get it. WHY would Luna lie about who she blocked? And WHY would she block SirCakez at all?

@mod What result would a hypothetical tracker who was roleblocked receive? No result or no visit?

at this point, there are multiple explanations for all of this that don't rely on Luna lying about being blocked (which was something I didn't get at first either but I don't really care about the why in situations like this, someone is lying somewhere in here either way). it might be possible that, for instance, TD37 just mis-claimed his N5 target and felt that if he tried to say "o wait I misread my PM, I actually blocked GE" he'd face scrutiny for it, and tried to fake the mod interaction to make it sound more natural (yeah, the end result was that it sounded fake as hell but him-scum wouldn't have realized that if he got caught up in thinking along those lines).

the Luna lying about her target explanation operates under the assumption that Cakez would have seen a "no result" and mistakenly assumed it was a no visit, but I don't think this is as unlikely as the explanation where all of these coincidences somehow just happened one after the other.

[pieguyn]

I know what GIF's schedule is like (see what I said about the timing of the VC), I am practically positive he was not around to check this game at the point where TD37 claimed he sent him the correction PM and that TD37 mis-stepped by not sending GIF a ping first before claiming the mod communication.

as further proof of this, my original plan was to wait about an hour and send GIF a ping, at which point I'd have bet a fair amount that I wouldn't have got any response to it for far more than 3~4 hours (mirroring the timing of TD37's posts, + 24 hours), but the question you just sent him works well enough as a ping and it's already in the game thread, so. it's possible now that he's seen what I'm attempting to do that he's paying more attention to the game than before and that he'll just troll me, but either way, notice the timing of when he answers the question and if he takes forever (until this evening) that should give you an idea.

[pieguyn]

this all also happens to fall on top of Luna's play, which I actively scum read (in direct opposition to GE and pisskop who I think both look fairly town).

[pieguyn]

I didn't have an explicit scum read on her play until I saw Cakez's flip - at that point I mostly still thought her interaction with beeboy was OK enough as a town tell and was ambivalent on the rest of her play - but now that Cakez has actually flipped and I've actually reevaluated and seriously thought about the read on her and my reads elsewhere in the game, I'm pretty sure she wasn't town here.

I'm kind of kicking myself because I noticed a lot of things off about her play D1, which I didn't pressure her about (or even really talk about at all in the game thread) because I don't like provoking her, and then beeboy happened and I just wrote her off as town and forgot the rest of her play.

[Nahdia]

Serious question: why do you think Dominator no killed then?

[pieguyn]

killing someone means he claims a clear on someone and basically has to rely on winning the 1v1 in 4p today with either of pisskop or GE, in a position where based on both your reads, my reads and the plan we were enacting he's almost definitely the next lynch. if he no kills and tries to shake things up by doing something unexpected, he might potentially throw people off and give himself more room to maneuver. I think this is what he was going for with the block/push on you, which remains pretty much nonsensical from a town POV to me.

I'm also tossing up the possibility that GIF actually did throw a scum role that can't execute the kill into the setup, especially since Luna and TD37 have both individually made posts suggesting that if they're scum here their choice to no kill this entire time was involuntary, but if that's what it is it doesn't matter anyway. (if I had to hazard a guess it'd probably have been inspired by Patchouli from FG's original Touhou UPick, which would also make GIF's "there is no Remilia Scarlet in the game" pretty hilarious, but that's just speculative so not much of a point in thinking about it besides bragging rights)

[TheDominator37]

to clarify, I don't believe that GIF specifically sent you a correction PM, in between your posts 3411 and 3412 (with only a minute separating them), and that he wouldn't have sent this PM, i.e. anytime yesterday after seeing that you had claimed a Cakez block N6.

now, I imagine this is the part where you go radio silent and hope people don't agree with what I'm saying.

I got it on tuesday at 1:44 AM

[pieguyn]

I got it on tuesday at 1:44 AM

what is this in GMT?

[TheDominator37]

do you plan to push a nahdia lynch dom

Probably not. I forgot to unvote
UNVOTE: .
Pedit: EST I think but let me double check

[pieguyn]

you're basically saying that you received the PM before you made 3404 and 3405, and made those two posts and then *left without* even checking the PM and came back later and only checked it after making 3411.

I continue to read this as complete damage control; I don't believe there's any way this is actually what happened.

[Nahdia]

..i think it happened

[pieguyn]

..i think it happened

pleeeeeeeeeeaseeeeeeee don't fucking do this to me.

[TheDominator37]

Yep UTC-5
PEdit: But why would I draw all this attention to myself if I was scum?

[Nahdia]

pie i'll trust you and if it's wrong i want you to promise you won't hate yourself.

we have at least another day anyway.

[pieguyn]

like even outside of all this I am pretty sure GIF was actually just asleep at the point where he's claiming he sent the PM.

p-edit: you didn't draw anything onto yourself. the only reason it's as much of a focus as it is is because I'm specifically making it such a huge talking point.

[pieguyn]

pie i'll trust you and if it's wrong i want you to promise you won't hate yourself.

we have at least another day anyway.

OK. I promise I won't.

I'm nowhere near ready to actually lynch, though. I do want to think about what happens next if it turns out I'm just wrong about this.

[Nahdia]

i mean, depends on if anyone dies, but as a general plan of action i think that's when we lynch gamma emerald.

im telling myself that paranoia is something that happens to me every game i play when it gets late. so i'm still pretty much banking this game on you being town. if you're not then like, good for you fam u earned it.

[pieguyn]

if you think GE is more likely than pisskop I'd be fine with that, I guess.

how certain are you that pisskop is town?

[Nahdia]

i wouldnt use the term certain, but i think he's more likely town than gamma or dom

[pieguyn]

I'm curious as to why, but at the same time if it gets to that point I don't think it'd be any better than a coin flip if I were to make a judgement call either way myself so I'd probably just end up following you anyway. I've tried to think about where I might be going wrong on either read and I haven't found anything significant on either of them.

[TheDominator37]

i'm actually not 100% opposed to being lynched.

It means pieguyn is confirmed tomorrow either way (as town or scum, that is) and then chooses who she wants to take to the end of the game.

Alternatively, scum reveals they can kill, pieguyn dies at night, and whoever Dominator blocked decides between the final two unclears.

Neither is exactly a terrible situation.

Nahdia, TD37 literally just scum slipped. he's outright lying here and he's gone radio silent hoping that if he does so, people will ignore him as you're doing here and he'll have a chance to argue his way out of it.

even regardless of reads, there is no universe where lynching you should be on the table. all that does is take away one of our lynches. right now, we have 2 chances to hit scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE}, and if you get lynched I'll either be stuck in a 4p endgame with only one chance to hit said scum out of {TD37, pisskop, GE} *with* pisskop who won't listen to anything I post (especially important because I'm pretty sure TD37's slot is the final scum here) or I'll be killed which arguably might be even worse.

the alternative - both of us just being off of the table - is correct here, but putting TD37 off does nothing besides the fact that it forces a no kill tonight. this isn't necessary at this point since at least one of us is guaranteed to be alive tomorrow, so we'll be able to decide the lynch anyway.

what I want to do is lynch TD37 today, since that's the only person who I think makes any sense at all as scum here (both based on Luna's play, his play, the setup, and him doing something that at the very least definitely appears to be a scum slip - he might come in with some explanation that I haven't thought of but based on how he's acting I don't think I'm wrong here) - I'm considering what happens if he ends up being town in advance solely because I've been wrong on my past 3 preferred lynches, but at this point, I think pisskop and GE both look so much better that I don't consider the alternate plan of lynching one of them and leaving TD37 alive to force a no kill worth pursuing. it's just an issue of, which of pisskop or GE do we pick. we either decide this today or tomorrow, no reason we can't think about it today.

Where did I slip