Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[originality]

we should lynch the ones not here because a) eliminates useless townies or b) might be mafia so its a win-win

vote lucienne

[originality]

and its not like we have much to go with on the first day, so we might as well.

[originality]

its just the first day, its not like we need a very good reason to vote on anyone.


unless you expect to catch scum on the very first lynch, chances are we are going to get a townie. might as well make the best of it by lynching the ones that are not contributing.

or maybe you are just ignoring all logic to save your scumbuddies?

[originality]

however, i do agree that its been a little too soon for that kind of thinking. we should be eliminating the lurkers only after at least a day or two.

oh well, was just trying to get the game moving. my vote stands though

[originality]

ill wait and see. will make better judgment once everyone has posted and whatnot

do me a favor and dont lynch me while im away

[originality]

Guys, youve got me completely missunderstood. First of all, it is my opinion that we have a big chance of

not

getting scum on the first day, because we really have almost nothing to go on.

That being said, i, as most of the people in the first page, picked a reason that appealed to me best and just voted on the lurker. Im not being agressive in that i want everyone to vote for them, and i did not take my vote away because there was really no reason to. But, obviously, as lucienne just posted, i will

unvote lucienne

.


And those of you accusing me to be scum. i did not bandwaggon anything. it was a well-reasoned vote. and i did not contradict myself, i understood my accuser's point that it was too early and agreed. but i hadnt any better voting to do, so i kept on lucienne.

anywho, im town. so stop voting for me, thanks.

[originality]

Also, if i was contradicting myself and having a complete change of heart, id have unvoted earlier, dont you think?

[originality]

(1)As i've already said, it's obvious we don't have much of a chance of lynching scum on day 1. But the problem to me is that you don't seem to want discussion. You want to quick-lynch someone who we have no reading on. With no discussion we can't get a reading on any players and if we lynch a townie it puts us at a big disadvantage because we have no readings on anyone and our townies numbers are dropping.

what the hell are you talking about? it was my first vote, hence i was only like 60% serious. is this what this is all about? i was never pushing for any sort of quicklynch, i just voted and gave my reason.

I am going to have to disagree there though. If we happen to lynch a townie, besides the obvious fact that it will narrow down the list of suspects, it lets us know the stance of each lyncher, therefore having a bigger idea of who is scum(and also based on who the mafia nightkilled).

(2) What i don't get is how Luciene was lurking? We were and hour and a half into the game that can last months and she hadn't even confirmed her PM yet! How can she be lurking if she wasn't even playing? That's just stupid! At least you finally realised to unvote her.

listen, its not complicated. i wanted to place a vote, picked the best idea out of my head at the time, and voted. since i was the third poster, i obviously wasnt being serious. I

never

agressively pushed for anyone to get lynched. i didnt "finally realize to unvote her", i unvoted because she became active, duh.

(3) It wasn't a well-reasoned vote! I'm also not sure whether to believe you about understanding carrotcake's point. As i've already said, it seems to me that maybe you realised you were in trouble and you agreed with him to get on the town's good side.

well, it wasnt an unreasonable vote, being that i wasnt specifically attached to the idea. i was just voting dammit.

and i have already answered this: if i was taking back my whole idea just because of being afraid of being criticized, id have unvoted when i said i agreed with his point.

(4) Why would you write 'i'm town, so stop voting for me'? How could anyone believe you? It's not a very good thing to say because there is no proof. So it's pointless.

...that was a joke, buddy.

(not in that im not town, but in that i was saying something that obviously had no foundation)

@originality, have you played this game online before, and how long did games typically last at that site if you have?

irc, not much on forums.







and about Oman. i dont find him that much suspicious right now. maybe the most out of everyone else, but still. if hes telling the truth, i dont think his "scumtrap" was that clever of a move, but whatever.

[originality]

and about Oman. i dont find him that much suspicious right now. maybe the most out of everyone else, but still. if hes telling the truth, i dont think his "scumtrap" was that clever of a move, but whatever.

especially with him stating his reason right on his voting post, for all scum to see.

[originality]

Im getting tired of explaining myself over and over, you guys just see invisible loops through everything i say. if anyone has a direct question for me ill be happy to answer.

[originality]

Not good enough. Not good enough by half.

vote: VampanezeHunter

You know, I was about to make that observation. But for now it does not seem THAT much like a scumtell, and since my vote would be just to make him defend himself, I don't think two is necessary just now. So i'll just

FoS VampanezeHunter

[originality]

And to elaborate, he seems to be posting just enough so that he wouldn't be considered a lurking mafia, but his posts have about as much content as there is talent in american idol. Sneaky behavior there.

[originality]

Well, Im feeling rather pressured into voting for someone.

As I explained, VH is seeming the most suspicious here, so im going to tip the balance by

vote VampanezeHunter

.

[originality]

Hey everyone, sorry for being gone, was spending the holidays at the beach. Shoulda warned I guess, my bad.

WHy are you feeling pressured to vote, who brought this up in regards to you? And how convenient you chose the biggest bandwagon. FoS originality

I didnt chose the biggest bandwaggon, VH and oman both had 3 votes, hence why I said I was tipping the balance.

I didnt just pick him for kicks and giggles, I explained on page 4 (when there was only 1 vote on him, and 3 on Oman if Im not mistaken.) that I was finding him quite suspicious. The 'pressured' thing means that I felt like it was time I voted for someone. And having strong feelings against VH, naturally I chose him (I had said Id probably vote for him earlier.)

I find it quite convenient that he felt "pressured" into voting for someone and, oh gosh, just happened to pick the person who had the most votes at the time.

See above for explanation. Summary= He was even with Oman, and I said Id vote for him earlier.

He really was adding to the bandwagon, without actually explaining anything.

As I said, I did have an explanation, I guess you didnt bother to go back a couple of pages.

Die scum

Are these hard feelings for me having attacked you in the very beginning?

[originality]

So Dr hasn't posted exactly what his supposed powerrole is, correct?

[originality]

Just wondering. Everyone keeps talking about it and I don't remember him saying anything. And Im trying to figure out if I should switch to him... I don't know, if he is really what he says he is, it would be a really stupid move, but his case right now is either one extremity or the other.

[originality]

rolefishing

I'm not familiar with the term. I assume it means trying to find out everyone's roles?

[originality]

I assume it means trying to find out everyone's roles?

And if its this, I dont see how you can be accusing me of snooping, I was just trying to figure out if it was some common knowledge that I was missing or not.

[originality]

I'm not so sure about the Dr, so instead of going along ill keep where I am. As I said, if he does turn out to be some powerrole then we're fucked, so I'm agreeing with carrotcake on this one. Lets wait.

[originality]

Uh, I just noticed I still have a vote on VH. It seems sort of pointless now, since he did colaborate for a while and gave reasons for his lurking.. so much that he requested a replacement, so

unvote

.

[originality]

Vote: originality

I still haven't figured out why the early bandwagon on him was allowed to die, I think he's a suitable place for some more pressure as his defense didn't really sit well with me.

As for the "Good Doc" and his claim, we really have no reason to believe he's lying at this point and whoever pointed out that lynching a power role is a bad idea is VERY SMART. I mean honestly look at it this way, the mafia is going to nightkill him now anyway (if he's being honest) and if he's lying and lives we'll take care of him Day 2. So let's concentrate on finding some scum, not outing anymore power roles, and doing what we came here to do (well some of us) and that's taking out the trash!

Uh, I believe I already explained all my points, but if you have any questions for me I'll be happy to answer. By the way, that very smart guy you talk about is me.

[originality]

i don't really believe your vote on VampanezeHunter which put him on the most votes has been cleared up yet. You said you did it to tip the balance but what benefit does that have? That's my qusetion.

I had said I'd vote for him in an earlier post, so it wasn't like out of the blue. Its not a complicated matter here, I found him suspicious and figured he deserved my vote.

What benefit does it have, you ask? Well, I thought it was best for VH to get a majority, instead of Oman at the time, (about who I also had said earlier I didnt get very scummy vibes from) since he was my suspicion.

Or in another vein, SOMEONE had to do it, right? So I picked the one I had reasons against.

[originality]

But why were you

pressured

into voting. This still makes no sense to me.

I guess I can attribute that to poor word choice. One word isn't really a good reason for everyone to fret over that post, imho.

[originality]

I guess I can attribute that to poor word choice. One word isn't really a good reason for everyone to fret over that post, imho.

There you go again. Now that you have come under attack for being 'pressured' to vote you now say that it was a poor word choice and you have now completely changed your opinion. Like you were doing before. Your just trying to get on the town's good side by agreeing with them. It's getting really annoying now. What does everyone else think about this post?

What the fuck. What? How the hell did I change my opinion? What you are saying doesn't even make sense, your just using the same stupid idea over and over again and logic is out the window as long as you're concerned.


Ok, I suggest you rethink the mechanics of this post of yours, because really, what? To address the issue: I didn't change my goddamn opinion, one word isn't an opinion. Especially the word "pressured". It does not convey the idea of an opinion. Dictonary.com defines an opinion as:

1. a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.
2. a personal view, attitude, or appraisal.

Please please point out where I ever showed any sort of belief, or some sort of specific personal view (outside of my vote, duh.) that the word "pressured" strongly indicated. It does not mean anything. As I said, you guys seem to be taking that way to the extreme. Its just a way to phrase it. I could have just as well said "By golly, my aforementioned suspicion of VH is going to manifest itself now as I vote for him." Are you trying to scumhunt based on people's unspecific vocabulary? That really isn't a good strategy, buddy.


Sorry for the heat there, but I hope it makes you see what you're doing.

[originality]

AlyG is hopeless.

By the way Streeflo, spurgistan isn't voting for me. That was a quoting mistake.

[originality]

So you still want to lynch a doc who's claimed? Yeah that doesn't look scummy or anything.

He didn't claim doc.

[originality]

Dr.B should roleclaim

Uh, no. We get nothing from that, we dont have any proof he'll be telling the truth, and its just plain unnecessary at this point.

[originality]

Also, why so anxious to find out his role? How do you think it would help you? Unless you're scum. Maybe you didn't notice, but everyone else has been pretty patient about what his role is. You went so far as to assume he had a specific role out already. If thats not suspicious, I don't know what is.

Interesting. Both you and your predecessor had pretty scummy qualities. That is definitely saying something.

Give me a good excuse for me not to vote for you.

[originality]

Ryan, that quote was a paraphrase of the post you made right above mine. Still waiting for your defense.

[originality]

I thought it was obvious. By the way, great points there.

[originality]

You can't paraphrase a quote and expect me NOT to call you on it. You are basically making it look like I asked somebody to claim, WHICH I did not. This is so blatant of a scum tactic that to you who voted me for calling me on it need a serious hammer upside your heads. You want to talk about controlling the town or TRYING to control the town, let's check door #1...........ah yes its Oman. As for blatantly misrepresenting somebodies comment, I felt from Dr. B's comments he was claiming he was a doc, that isn't a misrepresentation that is an interpretation (two completely different ways of reading somebody) Rolefishing? I'm trying to find out who's the scum, so if you think me making sure I

don't

place a vote on a power role is role fishing than I'm guilty as charged. Seriously people, I had a quote paraphrased and attempted to use against me and it's laughable how Oman nor dybeck are realzing that. I lynch all liars and in this case orginality blatantly paraphrased a post of mine to make me look guilty, so keep your votes on me all you want but you are missing the obvious one in this case.

First and foremost, have you ever heard of paragraphs?

Alright. Lets go over some things.

Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything? How about instead of not scum hunting you do a little bit of that?

This right here is one of the biggest reasons you are so suspicious for me right now. "How about instead of not scum hunting you do a little bit of that", with "that" being roleclaiming. And then you vehemently and directly deny that exact same thing:

You are basically making it look like I asked somebody to claim, WHICH I did not.

Hmm. You guys see where I'm going with this?

Seriously people, I had a quote paraphrased and attempted to use against me and it's laughable how Oman nor dybeck are realzing that.

I love that as soon as you are attacked you jump right at my neck. Its pretty nutty. Your best defense is trying to get me lynched. This means that you know what you said was blatantly scummy, and can't find any excuses for it.

You have failed to give any good excuses, ryan. Quite the opposite.


I think we've got our man.

vote ryan

I lynch all liars

You should really be voting for yourself then.

[originality]

Wow. Instead of getting better arguments he went ahead and killed himself. I didn't mean for you to take my advice literally.

I guess now hes pretty much a confirmed townie, right? Well... shit. But you cant blame me for faulty logic, he played pretty scummy. Though he should have waited to see if the wagon would follow up, and we could see who hammered etc.

Oh, and does this mean we are in twilight?

[originality]

Oh, and does this mean we are in twilight?

if not, then should we be not talking? Or is it just when the mod says so?

[originality]

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

Oh, same thing for spurgistan, but it would be harder to find someone against him I think, because he was actaully a pretty decent townie, went after most people who looked suspicious at the time, and unlike carrotcake he posted quite a bit.

[originality]

Alright, I didnt find anyone besides AlyG who carrotcake seemed to threaten (besides me at the beginning, but that was the beginning ((and he defended me later btw))). However, alyg would have to be stupid indeed to kill the only person against him, way too obvious. Im not ruling out that he did, but maybe something else? I dont know, i dont see it. Other people's thoughts?

Oh, and looking over spurgistan didnt post as much as it seemed.. but still, his posts were mostly of pretty good content.

[originality]

Alright guys, last post for today, promise. I just saw that carrotcake was one of the early supporters of not lynching Dr. B on day 1, and i think his arguments were probably why he wasnt. So theres that. I think that and his post against AlyG were pretty much the only strong opinions he voiced. And spurgistan, he seemed pretty set on Dr. B... In fact, he was the only one who kept his vote for him till the death(literally).

This Dr appears to be appearing in a lot of sketchy situations... Talk, Dr. I think its time you gave a better explanation.

vote dr. blackstrike

. On the cons, I guess someone could be setting him up. The more I think about it the more it seems that it would be a pretty good set up. (not kill the possible powerrole on night 1, making him suspicious, but instead killing the one persuing him.) Still, I think Dr. B is one of the best suspects now. This vote of mine isnt set in stone, like most of you I just want to hear his defense.

In AlyG's case it would be pretty retarded for him to kill off his only persecutor, so as I said there is a possibility of incrimination going on there, like with Dr.

[originality]

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

[originality]

Ummm im starting to feel like an idiot. All sorts of real arguments are being thrown around here and i have a pressure vote on someone who wont post while I could be helping out.

unvote

for now. DONT THINK THIS IS THE END OF THIS DR.B.

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up. the dybek and shaft.ed deal is looking more and more like a omgus thing. Oman has been coming up with decent arguments lately, and everyone else just isnt posting. Day 1 is over now, can we pick things up a little bit more? Everyone get out of the woods and share your opinions. I'm looking at you, elias, drb, and lucienne.

conclusions: AlyG and of course Dr.B are under the spotlight. At this height of the game, if i were to guess the sk at all it would seem to be either dybek or shaft.ed. I really am not sure about niether person's points right now so Im not going to vote for any of them.

[originality]

You know what, I guess I'm not going to vote at all. I might as way stay where I was. Sorry for the mess up.

vote Dr.Blackstrike

.

[originality]

God damnit, guys. I could start an elaborate lie here but I don't think it would be very good in the long run.

Everyone unvote AlyG. I'm 90% sure he is town. I did target Carrotcake during the night, and it would be really lucky of him to lie and get it right.

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim us two for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.


The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

[originality]

This is my first vig role. Sorry, but the idea of not killing on D1 didnt really cross my mind, plus I was pretty sure against carrotcake. Oops.


And my role security. Look at it this way: If I was mafia, I could have just called bs on AlyG's claim and pin him as a liar. If I was SK, I could have said the same thing, but the mafia would know AlyG was telling the truth and killed me in the night for sure. And if I was gonna lie, I could have easily claimed cop or doc or something, why would I claim the most sketchy role if I was to claim at all?

I have my eye on dybek. He was defending me on D1, but now that AlyG outed me as a powerrole he's saying he "knew I was scum" and defending AlyG to clean his name when he killed him this night. And I know for a fact there is no SK, his jump on shaft.ed is pretty damn suspicious.

Sorry I didn't know you guys had problems with the word fuck. How is putting symbols on it making it any better? The meaning is the same.

Good news of this mess is I can see people's alliances better.

unvote vote dybek

[originality]

No way. Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.

If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

On Sat 15th you were even claiming carrotcake's death must have been because he'd scared a scum.

Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die.

Your aggressiveness just convinces me more and more of your mafianess.

My thing is, the quietest ones are the most suspicious. He was the quietest one by a lot.

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone. I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

[originality]

Giving a heads up: I'll be gone for most of the weekend.

[originality]

I got back earlier then I thought. Alright guys, I don't really know what else to say at this point, except I'm definitely not mafia: If I was, I would have claimed doc/cop so someone could have counterclaimed me and thus revealing himself.

And: If you guys want me to, I could just not kill someone tonight (but only if we misslynch, otherwise there's no reason for me not to)

[originality]

Alright. So who else's input are we still missing? Elias who is gone, lucienne who is gone, and Dr. B who I don't know what the hell is up with. And AlyG I guess, he hasn't said much since I claimed.

[originality]

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear what I was trying to say, which was: The strategy I talk about is us finding out mafia by means of seeing who voted for me, since I know me to be town. Followed by a realization that it is not a good strategy.

The second part of that post refers to how the mafia would try to push for a lynch of one of us two (AlyG or me), since we are the claimed powerroles. It would be great for them if one of us is lynched, so they can get rid of 2 powerroles in one night.

[originality]

Vollkan, that does not make much sense. If AlyG is lynched today and turns out tracker then you guys still aren't guaranteed on me. Anyways, this me&AglyG idea is pretty crazy. Isn't he the guy who wanted to get me lynched really bad on day one? Like, most of everyone?

If this was some clever scum ploy AlyG would certainly have backed down when I was at most danger of being lynched. And why should he claim tracker and put the blame on me when there was no current suspicion on me this day? Think about it, it makes no sense. I understand the idea of scum pretending to antagonize each other to look town after one of them is killed, but this is just too out there.

And I honestly don't understand where the word "us" is sketchy on that quote, so I'm gonna look over all three times I used it.

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim

us (1)

two for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed

us (2)

up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of

us (3)

now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

1- Pretty symple here, I used "us" to mean us two who got claimed.

2- Us here meaning the town. I guess it could also mean me and him, because we are now a mafia target.

3- Us here means me or AlyG.

Please tell me which one makes you suspicious and be specific why.


I think you are reading something wrong there,

If Orig is vig, then he has good reason to consider AlyG protown, but I don't get why he immediately fears the possibility of them BOTH being lynched.

I don't fear the possibility of us both being lynched, but now that we are on the open we are like ducks on the pond for mafia.

And

(..)and then expresses real regret about how the " strategy " (VERY interesting word choice) exposes either of them to a lynching.

Thats not what I said at all. What I said, in other words, was: "Well, now that we have this shitty situation in our hands [[me&alyg being claimed for no reason]] we might as well see the positives of it. Hmm, lets see, maybe we could look at the people pushing a lynch for us powerroles.. no, that wouldnt work, only a few would be mafia and too hard to know who." This is the "strategy" I mentioned, which I immediately refuted afterwords for seeing how it would not work.

What I feared is the mafia pushing for a lynch on one of us and then finishing off the other at night.

[originality]

1) Who do you think is the mafia and SK?
2) What do you think of AlyG's play yesterday?
3) What do you think of Dybeck?

1) There is no sk. I'm the vig, I killed carrotcake. First of all, I doubt a SK would not kill during night 1, and mafia plus a vig seems enough killing roles for one mini game, all that and one sk would be too much. The mafia? Dybek right now seems really really high up there.

2) His play you mean the rolefishing for blackstrike? Yea, it sounds sort of fishy, but it also has at least some reason. If DBS has any useful info he should say so, but not unless its useful right now. And you gotta remember, AlyG is pretty much confirmed town for me. (He HAS to be a tracker if he found out I killed carrotcake, its too good of a guess for a mafia trick)

3) As I said on 1, and explained when I put my vote on him, he seems pretty damn scummy. Here's my initial explanation (by the way, I was the first one to point out his scumminess and vote, so I'm not bandwaggoning.)

I have my eye on dybek. He was defending me on D1, but now that AlyG outed me as a powerrole he's saying he "knew I was scum" and defending AlyG to clean his name when he killed him this night. And I know for a fact there is no SK, his jump on shaft.ed is pretty damn suspicious.

[originality]

But AlyG and Orig are basically acting like they want him to say "I am cop and last night I got innocent on X." Aside from the obvious fishing, their attitude seems a little too much like they expect him to say something earth-shaking.

Also, Orig, you do realise what happens if Dybeck or ANYBODY comes up SK?

No, I said explicitly that he only should talk if he had useful information. (Such as a guilty result, or I would also not mind if he were cop and claimed me innocent)

And I know 99.999999999999999999997% certainly that there is no sk, (ive never heard of a sk not killing on n1, and 4 kills per night would be way too much for a mini) so I really could care less about that possibility.

And as much as I think dybek is the man for today, I really want others to talk as I said before... shaft.ed, you should also post more. I mean, as far as we know both Oman and vollkan can be scum leading the town into disaster (though I doubt it)

[originality]

Sorry, quoting went weird there, its a quote from vollkan if its not obvious.


And dybek.. thats a sucky reason for your 100% certainty on me.

[originality]

Tell you what, if dybek turns out SK I will even vote for myself to speed up my lynch tomorrow.

[originality]

Whoa, is dybeck not voting for me?

[originality]

And a question: You are all assuming we have 3 mafia, is this the common way on a mini?

If so we have 1/3 chance of lynching a right person tonight. Let's say we lynch a town, so if I decide to kill someone at night I will have a 3/8 chance of getting scum, which is almost 50%. If I not count people Im pretty sure to be town, such as AlyG, shaft.ed, Vollkan, and Oman, then I have 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Interesting odds, wouldn't you say, people?

However, if I do somehow fuck up and hit the one who is town, we end up with a 3/6 scum/town ratio counting the mafia's NK. This is a loss for us. So its a risky business here, but its a risk we might want to take.

All of this is under the assumption we have 3 mafia, and we lynch town tonight. So let's say we lynch a mafia instead.

2/8 scum/town ratio at night. 25% chance for me of hitting scum. So if I not count AlyG, Oman, shaft.ed and vollkan as before, I'd have 2/4 chance of getting scum, 50%. It is a substantial risk also, but one with less drastic repercussions if I do wrong: If I get a townie in the night plus the mafia's kill then it would make a 2/6 scum/town ratio tomorrow. Depending on who is mafia NK'd, we might have a real good chance of hitting scum. Lets say the mafia kills me or alyg. If its me then I will be flipped vig and AlyG automatically will be town. This leads you fellas to a 2/5 situation, in which shaft.ed is almost certainly town, with oman and vollkan close behind. So take those 3 out and you guys will have a perfect 2 mafia choice to lynch. Not bad, eh?

This leads to another question: If I target someone in night and the same person targets me, what happens?

[originality]

Ok, I am retarded. I've been forgetting to count myself out of the peoplecount, so here's another.

I realise a lot of this is based on assumptions, but for me AlyG is guaranteed town, and shaft.ed pretty much also. Vollkan and Oman COULD still be scum but I rather doubt it, however they are not confirmed at all so I'm going to do a recounting this time without them in the "definitely town" part.

Lynching a town tonight: 3/5 chance of me getting mafia at night. [Lets say I not count Oman and Vollkan, that would make a 100% chance of hitting scum.]

Lynching scum tonight: 2/5 chance of getting mafia. [Without Oman and Vollkan 2/3, which is still pretty good though not perfect.]

Everyone might want to take these into consideration.

And remember, this is assuming we have 3 scum. Let's see, if we have 2, it would be:

If we lynch town today, 2/7 chance of me getting scum at night. Without Oman and Vollkan, 2/5. Rather risky, but still almost 50%.

Lynching scum, 1/7 chance of scumkilling tonight. No Oman and Vollkan, 1/5. Terrible odds. Lets follow through with this particular train of thought and see the how the next day would bring us 1/6, assuming I don't kill. If I do kill, the odds say I will hit town which would be 1/5. Bad: A lot of townie deaths. Good: No lylo, we have more leisure. So next day, lets say we lynch another town, 1/4. I try to kill and hit a town, 1/3, plus the scum kill 1/2. Now its lylo. Ok, same situation but I don't kill. Town has another whole day till lylo. (all this assuming I'm still alive).

In the end, numbers sort of go out the window I guess, what matters most is good judgement on part of the town. Still these odds are useful, especially the one considering we have 3 mafia, so what do you guys think?

[originality]

Under this new light from vollkan that we almost certainly have 3 mafia, you can disregard the bottom part of my last post. And here's what I personally think will (or at least should) happen today: we lynch dybeck. He is mafia. A third of the people at night will be mafia. Not counting AlyG and shaft.ed, half the people are mafia.

So are you guys up for the risk is this happens?


And: If I target someone, and someone else targets me, do I kill my target and then the other kills me or does he just kill me and I don't kill at all?

[originality]

Vollkan, I have been posting at the same time as you so I haven't seen your answers in time, chill out.

I know lynches are performed in the day phase, "tonight" its just an expression.


I think this Elias wagon is up to no good since he just said he won't be able to defend himself or anything, and I believe him when he says he has a lot to do, so let's wait a bit for him to say something real and then we can do whatever we have to.

I think that under certain situations (if we hit town) then my vigkill would be pretty good. I think this subject should be discussed in twilight though.

[originality]

Apologies for my shitty maths, I am tired. I will go over this tomorrow.

[originality]

I love you Gemelli. Now roleclaim.


Just kidding. But, you know, if you have anything that's rather useful, don't be shy.

[originality]

Whoa there shaft.ed, I understand that it is a huge risk and no one wants me to do it, but does that mean I can't talk about it? I'm trying to show all the ways it can affect us. Trust me, I won't do anything rash without discussing it first. And at least one person I am 100% sure is town, that being AlyG, for reasons known to all. And if you are scum, I deserve to lose to you, for you look townie as hell.I am willing to take the risk of accepting you as town. Vollkan and Oman are only feelings of mine, I know they are not guarantees, and I keep that in mind.

Awaiting Gemelli's review, even without any helpful claims, because his mind is fresh and his antecessor did not contribute anything at all.

[originality]

Woah. Dybeck's reasoning just right now is good. Pretty good. In fact, I'd probably vote for myself if I wasn't so sure I was town. Part of my vote on him was thinking his logic was completely ridiculous, and this decent summary of his thoughts sort of help that bit. However, his aggressiveness is the reason I am not unvoting. Its been the same all throughout the game, like on post 87, and how quickly he changed his mind about me, from "I'm not feeling his lynch" to "Visited someone at night and he died. No discussion, must be scum" before I had even claimed vig. And he seems to not even consider the possibility that I am actually vig, while I know I am, and I don't understand how you can be so 100% certain of something like that. Plus his jump on shaft.ed for being the sk is crazy for me, as someone who knows there is no sk.

tl;dr version: That was a well thought out post dybeck just made, but there are fishier things about him then just his logic.

And Gemelli, wow, it looks like I'm on your top list for scum. And probably mafia, nonetheless. Well, here's what I've been saying about how I can't be mafia: I'd not claim vig. I'd claim something safer for me instead, and if someone counterclaimed me It would be OK, because if I got lynched I'd have partners who would now know one more powerrole to kill that night.

[originality]

Probably cop or watcher. Chances are we have a cop, and he would counterclaim me right then, exposing himself. I think a cop kill would be the best NK the mafia could make.

Watcher would be damn safe for me. I'd have the excuse of either wanting to know if carrotcake was mafia or a powerrole that could help us or what have you, it is a pretty open role that could have plenty of possibilities, depending on how everyone else took it. We might have one that counterclaims me, and again it would be a bonus knowledge for my mafia buddies.

I could also go all Dr. Blackstrike on us, as in saying "Yes I am indeed a powerrole, but I guarantee I did not kill carrotcake and I am not going to tell you what I am." The risk factor of lynching a powerrole seemed to work well with blackstrike, and everyone could interpret this as they saw better and I could take advantage of my best opening.

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

I think that the mafia would definitely not admit to have any sort of killing role, its too close to the truth.

[originality]

Well, I seriously considered lying or something to keep the mafia's attention away from me at night, but I remembered that that would come back to bite me in the ass if I ever wanted to claim, and townies lying always end up making trouble, for whatever reason. Plus that would leave AlyG open for them, and I rather they kill me then a tracker, because at this time in the game I'm almost useless, and will definitely be useless by night three anyway. A tracker would remain useful.

Yea I'd think watcher is at least as plausible as a tracker.

And if I were scum claiming vig, wouldn't I have claimed 1 or 2 shot vig just to make me seem less of a potential danger?


A vig claim is inferior because its basically saying "OK OK I admit it I killed him but I'm not mafia, see, I'm a vig! I'm on your side guys!" Which sounds suspicious as hell, and also a pretty weak defense. I tottally understand the suspicion against me and understood people would not immediately believe me, but its a risk I had to take. The alternative would be terrible for the town, which would be either a)me knowing AlyG is the tracker but saying he is a lyar anyway just to save my ass
or b) Claiming something like cop, which would make the real cop come out and be exposed for mafia.
So its either me claiming a role everyone would have a hard time believing, or end up damaging the town.

I think my best defense here is: If I wanted to damage the town I'd have chosen cop. Or something similar.

If you were a vig in my situation, would you have claimed?

[originality]

Ok, I think that your primary reason against me is my killing of carrotcake. The rest I explained pretty well just now, but the carrotcake bit is keeping you begrudged. I don't know how else to say that I thought that carrotcake was scummy, so I'm going argue why would scum NK him. His major and I think only antagonism was against AlyG. I know him to be town, and you think so too. Now why would a scum kill carrotcake seeing as how he wasn't threatening any of their members? They wouldn't. He did not go against anybody except AlyG. If I were scum the townie I'd want to kill most would be either shaft.ed or spurgistan for inciting better thoughts against people(I know, I know, its easy to say because he was killed, but you know it's true). Truth is only you found carrotcake "the super pro-town rolemodel", and I thought that the way he acted looked a lot like a scum cover up.

[originality]

I don't know what else to say, except that if I were scum I'd get the most active ones.

I suddenly feel like you are less irrational and therefore only conflicting opinions are happening. If we do lynch you I want to think more about this

unvote

[originality]

Alright, I wasn't gonna mention this because I was too concentrated on dybeck, but

vote lucienne

.

I dare anyone to name one "townie" thing she did. All she's done is FoS everyone that others already talked about. Very passive playing. I am very surprised no one has noticed this before. Its no little thing either, she has posted the bare minimum, containing the bare minimum information for her not to be prodded. It has become even laughable at times, when everyone is jumping on a serious bandwaggon for concrete reasons, shes just all "Oh, yes, I do find him sort of suspicious, but I dunno. I'll FoS someone else who everybody also thinks is suspicious, though I'm not too sure." Absolutely perfect example of someone trying not to invoke attention. Even the FoSes have been sparce. And following my logic, three of those are scum: Elias, Lucienne, dybeck, Gemelli, and maybe Vollkan or Oman. I think Lucienne is likely. I want to hear everyone's thoughts.



By the way, I'm not getting what everyone finds so suspicious against Oman. Can someone tell me, so maybe I stop being naive about something I'm not seeing?

[originality]

I'd say dybeck and lucienne, even though I am no longer feeling 100% on anyone. Reasons already stated.

[originality]

Yea, as if I'd kill a possible powerrole during the night. Too risky and he didn't come off as "SCUM" to me, just really weird.

Vollkan, it seems as if every other post you make has ok logic, the others being completely crazy. But its OK because you usually fix that later.

Oman is nuts. I know its meta, but he tried to fake dayvig kill me to see how I'd react on another game. Again, his little text thing was weird and useless, but how is it scummy in any way? Just stupid imo. His biggest issue is riding bandwaggons, but he's not the only one.

And thanks for that shaft.ed, I've been meaning to do some CC quoting. Now dybeck, tell me how the hell is he the super pro-town man? He didn't do anything. The only person he had a case against is now known town. And how in the world is posting helpful forum code hints a pro-town thing? Scum could easily do that, and in fact I'd think they would, to appear like such a helpful angel.

And dybeck's case is still rotten, though I feel the noose loosened a bit with your elaborate explanation. Lets start your scum history from the beginning: Claiming shaft.ed is SK and being oh so damn sure about it. I know there is no SK, and the first thing a mafia would do is try to get the town to believe there is indeed a SK, so the vig possibility loses credibility.

[originality]

(1) The town is going to lynch player A.
(2) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is scum, originality should target player B at night.
(3) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is pro-town, originality should not target anyone at night.

This was my plan all along. Wait till twilight to talk seriously about who/whether to kill. So my answer is yes. I agree to let the town vote on who or if I should kill tonight, but I think the decision should only be made during twilight. This is the last day I should have a vig kill, because I survive till night 3 it will probably not be a good idea to kill anyone, so I think we should do some serious thinking and get the best out of today.

[originality]

By the way, I'm sure some of you guys have better judgment then me. You should stop worrying I'll go all rebellious and do my own thing (unless no one gives me ideas, so I'll be forced to act on my own).


Sorry, hadn't seen the question dybeck.

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig. I'd also be grateful if nobody else other than originality answers this question for him, for (hopefully) obvious reasons.

Nope, sorry. It mentions nothing of strangling. I can only assume that no guns are allowed on planes, since the mafia too did not shoot anyone. I'm not sure how much of my role pm I can reveal without being modkilled, so I'll just say it does not mention strangling.

[originality]

You forget that I will probably be NK'd tonight.

[originality]

I would highly disagree that I am posting the "bare minimum" of content. Can you show me some examples of where my suspicious have not been clear in any sense? Good luck.

Okay:

Most likely to vote for Oman at this point. I didn't like the way he responded badly to lotsof Vollkan's points, and some of his answers match those that benefit the Mafia.

Behavior like this all through the game. "I'll probably vote for this person everyone is talking about" but never really does.

Orig is a bit different. I'm relatively okay with his claim, I'm also seeing the possibility of him being an SK. However, if he is a vig this would be a terrible loss - he obviousy shouldn't be targetted. In short - I find it more likely that he would be a vig than an SK, but I'll be watching him.

As much as I like how you believe my claim, this is exactly what everyone has been saying before you.

I HATE Oman's vote for Elias. It is sheer bandwagoning for no real reason.

This you say after 5 posts which are saying this same exact thing.

She never really contributes anything, she just reeinforces what other people have been saying

.

I'm puzzled that this was your first reaction.

This on shaft.ed's saying "wow we probably have a SK". This after loads of discussion about this exact same thing, and dybeck having voted for him.

I could go on, but it would be redundant because everything is basically the same, you can pick out any of her posts and notice the pattern of not saying anything new but just feeding back what everyone has already said.



Also what I'm saying is, she hasn't ever proposed anything, just answered other people with things already said. Remember, there is always a scum that wants as little attention as possible by not being directly against anyone or starting any crazy ideas. Lucienne fits this perfectly.

[originality]

Actually, I now notice that Oman has been behaving a lot like this except more active and more willing to vote.

[originality]

Dybeck, what do you think about lucienne?

[originality]

Elias simply doesn't post enough for you to see how he plays. And Lucienne is worse then Oman. Yes, she answers, but she answers yes or no depending on what others already said. And her answers never affect the game in any way, its just like "Oh yea I don't agree with this" and it stays at that.

By popular request, my top 4:

1) Dybeck
1.5) Lucienne




3) I'd like to say Elias because of the process of elimination but I really have no info on him at all

4) Oman


As I mentioned, elimination leaves Gemelli and Elias, but since Gemelli is a sort of claimed powerrole I'd rather not risk.

I am indeed looking at everyone's top 4, and I will use those as the basis for my decision tonight, but obviously some people's opinions (I don't mean my own) count more then others.

[originality]

My weighing scale isn't secret, its pretty much dybeck=not worth anything and shaft.ed=worth double. (I exaggerate of course, but its something like that. I wouldn't count someone who is scum, would I? And I don't think dybeck is missing from the top 3 of anyone's lists. ) Also whoever we happen to lynch, if the person is scum he gets nothing counted for him, and there's that.

And I see a lot of people not considering lucienne yet, such as shaft.ed. I'd like to hear from you about this.

[originality]

Gemelli, I am trying to not make this into a purely number-based decision, otherwise anyone can tally up the votes and figure out what I'm to do tonight. I'd like to not have a set decision, but rather a direction to follow. Otherwise the mafia will know too much. But I won't do anything crazy, whatever my action is you all will be able to clearly see why.

And yes I am prepared to die tonight. But if our kindly doc decides to protect me I promise I won't hold it against him.


And you're wrong in saying that the scum influence will get drowned out by the town votes. If one or two townies make a wrong vote the scum can jump on that and make it seem as if most of the town wants something that will end up hurting us. But there's not much we can do about this without first knowing who they are.

I also have half a mind to shove all these probabilities into a random generator and have it spit out what I should do. That would definitely do with the unpredictable factor, but maybe it could come out stupid. What do you think?

[originality]

Vollkan, it is a 6:3 chance of hitting mafia on a misslynch if you count shaft.ed and yourself (no biasing here, you two are the lowest ones on the lists). Without that, 4:3. It resumes to pretty much picking the least scummy of the 4 and killing anyone else besides him. The lists would definitely dictate the situation if this happens. Is this acceptable for you, Gemelli? That if we end up misslynching, I'd take out the lowest three on the lists besides myself and AlyG and kill one of the remaining? This seems to me a pretty decent way to use the info from the lists.

Disclaimer: I'm not stating this as a definite plan of action, just an example on the process of thought tonight. I still have to take no-kill and other things into consideration.

[originality]

I dunno... it worked for him last night

I thought we'd been over this whole "carrotcake was useless and not a protown hero" business.

See, this is something that gets me about dybeck. He does, as some of you say, give off the possibility of a stubborn townie, but he ignores a lot of things that have been rebuffed or whatever just to suit his cause better.

[originality]

It's mindboggling that you think originality, who we know for a fact strangled a townie last night, is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli.

Look, mistakes happen ok. I'm sure I'm not the first vig to accidently kill a townie.

And as we've been saying for a while now, In all probability I will get killed tonight, so why the hurry to lynch me? This is one of the facts you've been ignoring.

[originality]

I don't disagree, but the whole reason we are doing a list is so there is no set action for me tonight, otherwise I'm too predictable for the mafia.

[originality]

And what use would they make of this information?

What advantage does it give us to have you killing unpredictably?

The information in itself is not the issue here, but whether I pose a threat to them or not. This way they don't know if they should not mind me or be careful that I might go after one of them, therefore reducing the effectiveness of any planning they might do.


Again, I'm not killing unpredictably, I will be following these lists we've been doing. I understand the consequences of doing otherwise, and really there is no reason for me to do anything besides what we've been discussing, so I'm down with it.

[originality]

Oh, and vollkan, I don't believe you considered the mafia-dybeck possibility in your post. If he is mafia, he will definitely try to lynch me or AlyG today. Pushing for AlyG would come off a tad too weird, as there is no good proof of him being scum, and a big chance of him being a town powerrole. I'm the only option left. And going for me is not too crazy, because my situation is rather dubious, and I am a more believable scum.

[originality]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

Where are you getting all this from? I've repeatedly said I consider town's opinions better then mine. Pretty crazy statement you made here. I just said I was going by the town-made lists, not that I'm deciding myself. I think this is too obvious for you not to have noticed, so you must have ignored it purposefully, like all that other stuff.

FoS dybeck

, even though I feel silly doing this, because its pretty much implied.

[originality]

Dybeck, since you seem so fond of kill flavors, wouldn't you say that a bludgeoning in the head screams mafia?

[originality]

Because you know I strangle. And I meant mafia as in the mafia, as in a goon banging someone in the back of the head. So if the other flavor is the mafia, then you know I'm not it.

[originality]

Holy crap, I just thought of a great reason why I can't be mafia. Bear with me here.

I think we can all agree I was a very big suspect for everyone at D1

Since AlyG tracked me, and I did the killing myself, the mafia would have to have picked me from their numbers to do the killing for that night

Now, why would they pick someone who others had reasons to suspect against? That would invoke the possibility of exactly what happened happening, me being targeted by an investigative role.

They would have picked one of them that was least on the spotlight on D1. Not someone like me.


Changing subjects, I will do the will of the town, EXCEPT if said will involves me killing myself or AlyG, because those are the only people I KNOW to be town, and in that case I would assume to know better then the town and make my own decision. Other then that, I follow your orders.

You can pretty much disregard that, because right now its pretty much the opposite of what the consensus is looking like, but its my disclaimer.

[originality]

Call me crazy, but it looks like the reason dybeck wants a no-NK so bad is because his ass would be on the line otherwise. (Not that I'm against a no-kill, but he seems to want it for reasons other then the general benefit of the town)

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

And regarding my super logical post of why I can't be mafia. How is it WIFOM, vollkan? The mafia would pick someone not suspicious to do their NK, its how it works, period. And I was totally on the spotlight, so it couldn't have been me.

[originality]

I'm down.

[originality]

Yeah, I think you need to see my other games if you don't believe that. I have not played a single game (bar my first one) where I didn't wagon prolifically.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[originality]

Were you in my town games where I did this? You seem to have broken knowledge.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[originality]

lol, you can't use an ongoing game on me either way.

Mod Note: Edited for reference to ongoing game

[originality]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

Me.

















I kid, I kid. Ok serious answer: I want you lynched. I understand the reasons behind the oman wagon, but dybeck is a way better choice for today. And as much as I'm after Lucienne, no one is paying attention to that, so I shall

unvote, vote dybeck

for the purposes of us starting to make a decision on today's lynch.

PS: I reserve the right not to have to explain it at this height in the game. I've established my reasons plenty of times, and I feel like a fool repeating the same thing over and over. I'll only say this: His 100% conviction of me being scum keeps nagging me, since I'm the only one who knows for a fact that that is false. I don't know if I can explain it well, I guess it is about him making a blatently wrong decision, which leads me to suspect him even more.

[originality]

originality, your reasoning is faulty. You seem to think that the people defending you from a lynch believe you are very likely to be town. Most of us, at least me personally, believe you

may

be town but are running with the idea that if you are not town aligned you are quite likely to be NK'd tonight by an opposing anti-town faction. Where I believe dybeck to be wrong is where he ignores this section of the situation and stubbornly insists lynching you is the only play for today. He also twists people's words and associates any person thinking you should be left alive with a scum faction. This is where he is being scummy, not in specifically calling for your lynch.

I personally would like you to explain what makes dybeck a "way better choice for today" than Oman. I know I've been struggling with this decision (or perhaps someone outside of this duo) and would like to know what makes you so sure that dybeck is the scum.

Ok I expected this. I meant that only *I* know myself to be town, and therefore especially I knew that his insistence on my lynch was weird. Trust me, I know you guys are suspicious of me.

Now with why dybeck>Oman for today.
You could say they are the extreme opposites, with dybeck being too stubborn, and Oman changing his mind too easily. Both extremes are bad I say.

Dybeck however, fails at reasoning. Oman at least understands peoples excuses (or says he does I guess) and offers his own half assed excuses, which could be interpreted as shady when looking at his vote pattern, but still plausible.

Dybeck just refuses to believe that his thought process might be wrong. To you guys it might seem less odd then to me, because you don't know for sure whether I'm town or scum. But I do. Therefore his insistence is especially weird to me.

Now lets backtrack to the original anti-dybeck reasons. He seemed sort of obsessed with the SK in the beginning, being SO sure that shaft.ed was it. Now when I show up he completely forgets about his old shaft.ed arguments, because hey look a confirmed killing role.

The mafia would simply LOVE to get a SK lynched, because A) it is good for them, and b) makes them look good for the town. Ok, that argument is wifomish, I admit. If they got a vig lynched, they at least would have the excuse of "I had NO way of knowing he wasn't an SK!" which is an OK excuse I guess. It definitely won't bring the town's ire upon him tomorrow if he gets a vig lynched, because no one knew better.

His stronghold of anti-originality is focused on "Carrotcake was most prototwn player ever no vig would kill him he simply MUST be scum". Which would be acceptable for the beginning of this discussion, but even after I pointed out how I hated carrotcake's weird quietness, and how he seemed to be to be trying too hard to appear town, and after everyone was shown how carrotcake wasn't especially pro-town at ALL, he still ignores this.

And his odd death paranoia. He seemed too sure I was going to NK him, and for that he kept trying to get me to give him my word on a specific night action. The mafia would like to know exactly what I would do, so they know for a fact whether I am a threat or not. Very suspicious thing for him to say. And he keeps asking everyone how likely his night death would be. Well, at least I can answer you now, since the town seems to have made up its mind. I will not NK.

[originality]

Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

[originality]

Oh and nice work on the thingamajig, it should be pretty useful.

[originality]

Pretty sure he's -2.

[originality]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you.

Oh really. Strange that you condemn me mostly for having a gut feeling against carrotcake, which you made seem like something you wouldn't belive in.

And Elias,

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night. And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me. By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh. I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

[originality]

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time. I don't just ignore things that I'd rather not talk about, like our friend dybeck here does.

Also, remember when AlyG didn't say a word against me till his claim? Yea, thats the same thing happening. We didn't want attention to our roles.

[originality]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there. Yes, it was a smokescreen thing, that's what I've been saying.

[originality]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. [You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there.

Yes, it was a smokescreen

thing, that's what I've been saying.

I think you just slipped
Let me explain:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him...

So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

If it was a smokescreen, you never pointed this out to us. When the issue of why you killed Orig was raised, you simply said that you killed CC on a "gut feeling" without referring to these earlier statements and explaining what this was all about.

If you had said those things as a brilliant maneuver to distance yourself from CC's death, you would certainly have thought to have explained them when you were making up why you chose to kill CC. That's what I meant by "you NEVER retracted".

The AlyG thing is important. If this was a smokescreen tactic, the LAST thing you should have done is attempt to use it to embroil another player in suspicion. That is completely anti-town because you are effectively fabricating evidence.

Now, it is true that you then went off on a Dr. B tangent and dropped blaming AlyG, but then later in #389 you said again:

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up.

When you finally got outed you said:

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone.

I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

Here you admit that that you said Carrot was scum to get suspicion off yourself (*blink* Why would we suspect YOU for that?)and you clearly just bypass what you were trying to do wrt AlyG.

Wow, isn't it common practice here to say something so you look like you don't know anything about what happened in the night? Because that's what I did. If you will notice, I was pulling a Lucienne on us- that is, I was repeating exactly what the average town consensus was without adding anything new on my own, to look like I was contributing.

At the beginning I had all the tools I needed to pursue an AlyG lynch,(carrotcake's death) but I didn't, I never mentioned it, I just agreed that he was the only one that carrotcake had stuff against. If I was trying to frame him or something, I would have persued a lynch of him, like a lot of people were doing. And that third quote of me there, vollkan, is actually arguing PRO AlyG.

And at that last quote, I was saying that I had just agreed with everyone in saying that carrotcake must have scared someone or something, what was I supposed to do? Say what actually happened, that carrotcake did in fact not scare anyone, but actually seemed scummy, so I killed him? No. I think you are missreading that one.

[originality]

What, never seen a 322 days long deadline before?

[originality]

Letting everyone know I'm still alive. Theres nothing for me to say right now, since the subject here seems to be whether to lynch me or not, and I'm sure most of you know where I stand on that.

Outside of that things haven't been moving much from what's been going on lately. Elias reevaluating Oman and dybeck should throw some new fire in the discussion, I hope. Talking about new ideas, when was the last time Lucienne posted?

Mod, could you prod her

[originality]

Seconding the ellipse thing. I had to try so hard... not to... make fun... of the way.. you write...

Anyways I understand it is probably habit for you, but please stop. It bothers me. Get rid of those and we cool, dawg.

subject #2:

What I got from what you said was that you didn't claim vanilla at all, you were actually talking about ice cream. Is this right?



I'm not gonna say anything else about you right now since you haven't caught up. Can't yet tell how you play compared to Oman. Except for the damned ellipses.

[originality]

Was talking about this post, Elias. I asked whether he was talking about ice cream only after I read him saying that (I asked because I didn't really get if that was what he was really talking about, his answer confused me), because originally I got the same idea that he was claiming vanilla town.

Actually I said " I didn't say anything... stop looking at me... "

And be careful. I don't think now is a good time to start any sort of role "fishing" now, be it to fish my role, warn me not to say it, or even to try and confuse the mafia by throwing them off the scent.I claimed town, then said I was hungry for ice cream. Leave it at that until I get caught up. Unless your trying to start a WIFOM situation here that only forces me to abandon my reading and instead put all effort into the here and now.

And define Ellipsises.do you mean Parenthesis? Cause if not I have no idea what your talking about. heck even now I still don't.

Look, I fixed it. Doesn't it look pretty

[originality]

Listen, if you claim vanilla, you will not be able to claim anything else ever in the future without being called a liar and consequently getting lynched. So it is better not to lie, and simply not mention it.

Why bring it up at all? You were in absolutely zero pressure.

[originality]

Hey everyone. The reason I haven't been posting is my computer went south. (I'm posting from my wii). Its sort of hard to read everything from here but I did a skimming anyways. I think the computer will most likely be OK before the deadline, and if not I'll try to come and work from here. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Quick thoughts: Uhhh, Korlash's softclaim (because that's what it was) was pretty damn weird. I don't know what else to say. Sorry, I'll really try to get some work done on this but right now it's sort of hard. I'd rather not be replaced by the way if thats alright.

[originality]

Alright, computer access is 100% again, and in good timing too. Right now its only my word against dybeck. So I hope the real cop counterclaims soon. And if there is no real cop, you guys have to remember that we already have one investigative role: AlyG. The tracker. Sort of unlikely having a cop and a tracker, wouldn't you say?

That's all I have, really. I don't know what else to say. I guess I could be a miller, but I don't know how likely that is in a mini game.

[originality]

If you look at Dybeck's D2 posts, you see a few things that jump out:



* He also has quite a few posts where he describes his origScum conviction as "100% certain." I didn't see any rationale for someone making such statements unless they have received special information.


originality: I have never heard of a miller vig. I would call that situation "wildly unlikely."

shaft.ed: I'm not familiar with the term "AnbodypartoS" ... can you explain it?

More later; must take care of the day job.

a) He's known for saying he is "100% certain" plenty of times, such as shaft.ed at the beginning of the day today as being SK.

b) Actually, I have heard that vigs actually can be millers plenty of times. Can anyone confirm/debunk this? I too have little experience here.

c) I believe he meant a sarcastic variation of "hand of suspicion", "finger of suspicion", etc.

[originality]

I've been looking over dybeck's posts, and I must admit that his stubbornness fits with the cop claim. But that doesn't explain why he completely ignored anything to do with me this day until AlyG claimed.

Crap... I really want him not to be the cop, and I'm pretty sure he isn't. But I cant ignore that I might be a miller, or he might be insane.

The more I read, it seems to me he's always been saying "Originality is scum." Period. Him being a cop would explain that blind certainty.

I don't know what to do now. It will look really weird if I say the person who is accusing me as scum looks like a real cop, but that's what it is.



However, what keeps me from believing his claim is: a) I know I'm town, and b) Why he only jumped on me when AlyG started it.

And he only started his "breadcrumbing", if you will, after AlyG's claim. D1 and the beginning of D2(a perfect time to subtly breadcrumb if he had a guilty result) has nada.

[originality]

Also: We all know he didn't think I was scummy at all D1.

Why would he investigate me?

It keeps looking like he only started his "breadcrumb" as a clever way to (falsely)claim cop in the future, after seeing AlyG's claim.

Also, we can't forget that dybeck might just be stubborn like that naturally, and nothing of it was actually breadcrumbing of any sort.

[originality]

Well, I didn't get any miller flavor, I just threw that out there because I don't know whats going on with the cop thing. But I'm more inclined to believe he is just lying.

[originality]

Make it look to me like you are scum, playing the game that all scum play after they get investigated (I've been there, I know)

What is the "townie way to act"? I don't get what you're saying there.



And I'm far from claiming miller, I said "I guess this is a possibility, but probably not." which led me to simply believe dybeck is fake claiming. You guys cant tell me its not something mafia would do, because it is. How are you so certain that dybeck is not lying, vollkan? What if he really did think he was -1 and had nothing to lose by claiming cop? Seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do as mafia.

[originality]

Show me where I said I was certain dybeck is not lying.

I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

Ok, maybe not "super certain", but there you go.

I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat.

He could have just argued so much against me, when I was in really tight rope, that it would look weird if he completely withdrew, so he was sort of trapped on his campaign against me. Later when he was at -1 he realized claiming cop was a good way to take a powerrole down with him, so to speak.


And dybeck has quite a bit to explain, such as why he investigated me, why he ignored me until AlyG pointed at me, and why he ardently persued shaft.ed at the beginning of the day while he supposedly had evidence against me.

[originality]

I'm curious as to what dybeck's excuse will be tomorrow if you guys do end up lynching me. In any form, I'd like to tell everyone the people I think I have pinpointed, just in case I don't see the light of day tomorrow:

Lucienne with dybeck.

Not completely sure who the third is yet, I have my ideas, but these two I am too sure of.


And if I can't convince everyone with my word only, please look at those numbers you have been throwing around for a while now, that say that whatever my allegiance might be, its best not to lynch me.

[originality]

Yes! Finally someone agrees with me on Lucienne.


It seems to me dybeck is on too uncertain grounds for you guys, making me doubt he will be lynched today. I'll go for my other top scum choice.

unvote, vote lucienne

[originality]

You all have said that lynching dybeck would be too much of a risk, and I think that persuing a dybeck lynch would be useless for me. I have to be happy with option #2 I guess. But don't let that make you guys assume I quit on dybeck, he is still scum. But Lucienne is scum too, so its okay.

[originality]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

I doubt you have ever mentioned Lucienne before. Where did I miss this?

[originality]

And vollkan, I brought up the original case against Lucienne and had my vote on her for quite some time. Only changed it to dybeck because no one was paying attention to me after a while. So don't say I'm just "following your scumdar".

[originality]

I'd like to know if anyone is firmly against a dybeck lynch at this point.

[originality]

The reason I haven't been contributing much is that the discussion here is whether me or dybeck is lying. I already know the answer to this. And we should lynch dybeck.


Ok, here's something: If dybeck comes up cop or not, you guys can be sure of my alignment (or at least if I'm mafia or not). If I am lynched, you lose a vig, but you don't know that, so: You could tell if I was scum or not, but could NOT tell if dybeck is scum or not. Someone tell me a good reason not to lynch dybeck.

[originality]

Dybeck is mafia, since I know there to be no SK. I'd say he is with Lucienne. Notice how he sneaked her name in his suspicion list, without ever mentioning her before, with just the right amount of suspicion against her/distancing.

But now I feel bad saying this because of the family thing. Unless its all some clever scum ploy. I kid, I kid.

I might as well post my thoughts on everyone:

dybeck: mafia.

Lucienne: 85% mafia

Korlash: I have not talked much about him other then complain about his ellipses, and all I can say is he definitely does not look like a certain townie. I'd say 60% mafia.

vollkan: Pretty sure is town. 10% mafia

shaft.ed: same as vollkan.

AlyG: 0% mafia, 100% town with no doubt in my mind.

Gemelli: He's been posting really town-like lately, but he is not quite in the same rank as shaf.ted and vollkan townwise. 35% mafia.

originality: Pretty sure he is town. See what Im doing there?

Elias: Hard to tell. Just by posting style, I'd say 50%.



To sum it up, the possible partners of dybeck to me are:
Lucienne, Korlash, Elias.

[originality]

This is for the good of everyone.

unvote, vote dybeck

[originality]

Assuming that there are either two or three mafia left, this leaves Elias and Lucienne as the most likely suspects from my perspective, with Korlash a distant third. For the rest of you, I should obviously be included in the suspect category.

This.




Okay, I totally did not expect to be alive right now. But I understand the mafia's play, not offing me or AlyG (scared of an unpredictable doctor etc) and instead killing shaft.ed, arguably the town's best player. I suppose they might have seen some cop-tell from him based on his reactions about dybec's claim, but I think its more likely he was just killed for being helpful.

About AlyG's result, its definitely not a town-confirmation on Lucienne. In fact, mafia would send the other goon for the kill, since Lucienne was pretty high up in people's suspicions last night, making her a more likely AlyG investigation then the other partner.

shaft.ed's role blew me away. Totally did not expect it. Anyway, today's kill confirms me as non-mafia at least. Hooha.


By the way vollkan,

very

interesting analysis of Elias.

[originality]

The night choice I sent in was "no kill".

[originality]

Plus I find it more likely that if the scum had a RB they would have targeted AlyG. He is a bigger threat to them because if I went and killed someone, probability wise it would be a townie over scum, which is extremely good for them. And they know that if I killed someone I'd be under loads of suspicion today because I said I wouldn't, so I think they would rather let me kill someone if they could help it. It makes no sense for them to RB me.

And since I'm here, I'll post my scum list:
1) Lucienne
2) Elias (all points against him have been extremely good)
3) Korlash (But probably Elias)

And by the way, even if dybeck hadn't been crazy about lynching me yesterday I still can't be mafia. This is because I did not kill someone, while dybeck's mates did.

[originality]

Yes, its been pretty much that since the beginning of D2. The fact that dybeck put her at medium high in his scum list without ever mentioning her outside of that just reinforced it.

And I also have to disagree with your thought that Lucienne was shaft.ed's investigation. He gave no sign of ever finding her suspicious at all, and as far as I can tell, the few times he acknowledged her D1 was actually agreeing with her. (232)

Okay, on 210 he had a minor disagreement with her on the quality of her posting, but I doubt that would influence an investigation. It seems likely to me that shaft.ed would go after Dr.B that night, the most controversial player. And I'm pretty sure he got an innocent. On post 848 he cites his 'second tier' candidates as Lucienne and Gemelli. I somehow doubt he would put someone he knows for a fact to be town in any position for a lynch. The only person besides himself, me and alyg that he doesn't advocate lynching is you, vollkan. I think that he investigated you.

[originality]

I think that it would be likely for him to investigate Dr.BS, but since he showed mild suspicion against him on D2 I sort of doubt it. I'm not sure yet why he would investigate thesleepless (only had 2 posts in the entire game, 0 of which had any content). Maybe it was a random investigation. I don't know. But from evidence of D2, I'd say you were the investigation, and turned out innocent.

[originality]

I'd like to say I live. Having some LA on the holidays as Gemelli said, but sorry for being so long gone.



Getting down to business:

Lucienne and Elias- I am actually pretty balanced out with these two. Two most likely mafia.
But following not so far behind is Korlash. The reason he's not up there is I do understand the points against him, but I sort of have this feeling he has just a sort of confused posting style.

The arguments against Elias were golden. Korlash has always been rather sketchy, and the stuff reinforcing that today was not that bad aside from what I just mentioned. Lucienne has always been suspicious to me, but I recognize that I am getting sort of obsessed over this, so I'll take her out of the list top and tie her with Elias and accept the possibility that she might not be scum. I doubt it though.

If we lynch Lucienne today and she comes out town my choices are Elias and Korlash. No doubts.

Yea, I realise I'm not being that original aside from Gemelli not being on my list, but thats how it is.

About my vigkill tonight, I personally think it would be a good thing because I am not feeling very divided about my scum, and I think I'd have a good chance of hitting one. But the town's decision is the mandate for tonight, not mine. Unless you guys give me free reign. Whatever. I suggest everyone come to a consensus about what I should do. If you are still all divided about it in the end I'll just make my own choice, but I'm pretty positive I'll do it right. Yesterday was pretty clear what everyone wanted, right now not so much.


Again, my list:
Lucienne
Elias
Korlash

[originality]

Forgot to mention, but yeah, if we misslynched I wouldn't, I'm aware of the consequences. I meant in case we hit scum.

[originality]

Yeah, its pretty slow here. To get us moving again I'll be radical and

vote elias

for the points against him made mostly by vollkan.

4) @ Orig: Why do you suspect Lucienne so highly?

Its pretty much for the exact same reasons as yesterday. Her extreme neutrality sets me off. She plays both sides of the court, and if she does lean towards one side its very weakly.

[originality]

Spurgistan, I know its sort of old and beaten news, but what would be your best guess as to you having been killed N1? Who could have done it and why? I know its not very helpful at this point but still I'd like to know.

And since we have new people here how about a new

votecount

Also obviously awaiting post-reading evaluation.

[originality]

Yeah, I don't remember agreeing to kill anyone tonight.

[originality]

Ok, my brain just imploded trying to understand what korlash is trying to say.

First of all, the idea that I'm mafia is absolutely insane.

Second of all, there is no sk. So you just jumped to 100% scum in my mind.

vote Korlash

I have no idea what you are trying to do but I'm sure you can't be town at this point. It's impossible he is a sk, the implications would be crazy. If Oman got blocked first night, fine, but since the mafia saw that there were 2 nks they should have reasoned Oman was not a nkiller, and had no reason to block him second night. Nothing makes sense in what you said.

[originality]

Oh I guess thats hammer, hadn't noticed Gemelli's vote. Not that it would make much difference in today to tomorrow other then to speed things up, so I regret nothing.

[originality]

Ok I'm stupid and didn't see Korlash's self vote either. Did mine even count? Whatever. So no kill for me tonight right?

[originality]

Dude, I really don't understand what you're saying. Especially that first post. How am I killing myself? How am I getting rid of a SK AND a townie? I'm confused. Your second post I can tell is just crazy talk.

[originality]

Good run. I can't believe I was actually right about Lucienne, I was starting to doubt it later on.

ABR, why me last night over alyg/spurgistan? Just curious.