Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias pretty much lurked through D1 with a few posts of significance (including joining the originality page 1 bandwagon). And in D2 he has contributed zero, while still be active on site. I'm voting for him until he adds to the discussion.

hi shafted. I am currently weighed down by multiple games and I am not fully caught up yet. I have a life outside of mafiascum and I'm signed up for too many games, and trying to stay in all of them. I think I will be completely caught up at the end of the week. I dont plan to start making any special effort based on your vote, so I guess its an ok time to tell you youre wasting it, until the weekend, at least until some of my near-LYLO games are concluded.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #16!

dybeck (2) - originality, Oman
originality (1) - dybeck
Elias_the_Thief (1) - shaft.ed

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

EDIT: VOTE COUNT FIXED

[originality]

Whoa, is dybeck not voting for me?

[originality]

And a question: You are all assuming we have 3 mafia, is this the common way on a mini?

If so we have 1/3 chance of lynching a right person tonight. Let's say we lynch a town, so if I decide to kill someone at night I will have a 3/8 chance of getting scum, which is almost 50%. If I not count people Im pretty sure to be town, such as AlyG, shaft.ed, Vollkan, and Oman, then I have 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Interesting odds, wouldn't you say, people?

However, if I do somehow fuck up and hit the one who is town, we end up with a 3/6 scum/town ratio counting the mafia's NK. This is a loss for us. So its a risky business here, but its a risk we might want to take.

All of this is under the assumption we have 3 mafia, and we lynch town tonight. So let's say we lynch a mafia instead.

2/8 scum/town ratio at night. 25% chance for me of hitting scum. So if I not count AlyG, Oman, shaft.ed and vollkan as before, I'd have 2/4 chance of getting scum, 50%. It is a substantial risk also, but one with less drastic repercussions if I do wrong: If I get a townie in the night plus the mafia's kill then it would make a 2/6 scum/town ratio tomorrow. Depending on who is mafia NK'd, we might have a real good chance of hitting scum. Lets say the mafia kills me or alyg. If its me then I will be flipped vig and AlyG automatically will be town. This leads you fellas to a 2/5 situation, in which shaft.ed is almost certainly town, with oman and vollkan close behind. So take those 3 out and you guys will have a perfect 2 mafia choice to lynch. Not bad, eh?

This leads to another question: If I target someone in night and the same person targets me, what happens?

[vollkan]

And a question: You are all assuming we have 3 mafia, is this the common way on a mini?

I have been in one game with a SK (Mini 467) and it was 2 mafia, 1 SK and 9 town. In all other games I have been in, it has been 3 mafia.

2 mafia is a real possibility if we have a SK. Otherwise, it is most likely 3.

If so we have 1/3 chance of lynching a right person tonight. Let's say we lynch a town, so if I decide to kill someone at night I will have a 3/8 chance of getting scum, which is almost 50%. If I not count people Im pretty sure to be town, such as AlyG, shaft.ed, Vollkan, and Oman, then I have 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Interesting odds, wouldn't you say, people?

However, if I do somehow fuck up and hit the one who is town, we end up with a 3/6 scum/town ratio counting the mafia's NK. This is a loss for us. So its a risky business here, but its a risk we might want to take.

Your math is slightly off. If we lynch town today, we have 8 people, yes. That makes the likely ratio 5:3. (that's town:mafia). If you mess up, it is likely 3:3 a loss (not 3/6). I think you were saying the same thing as me, but you expressed 3/6 as a scum:town ratio.

Anyway, something else interesting from this:
If town is lynched today then we have 5:3 (most likely and if you are vig). If you then cut out AlyG, Shafted, Oman (why are you sure of Oman??), myself and yourself (you didn't include yourself in your own list. You aren't scum, right?), you are left with 3 people -- all of whom by your logic are the mafia.

All of this is under the assumption we have 3 mafia, and

we lynch town tonight

. So let's say we lynch a mafia instead.

2/8 scum/town ratio at night. 25% chance for me of hitting scum. So if I not count AlyG, Oman, shaft.ed and vollkan as before, I'd have 2/4 chance of getting scum, 50%. It is a substantial risk also, but one with less drastic repercussions if I do wrong: If I get a townie in the night plus the mafia's kill then it would make a 2/6 scum/town ratio tomorrow. Depending on who is mafia NK'd, we might have a real good chance of hitting scum. Lets say the mafia kills me or alyg. If its me then I will be flipped vig and AlyG automatically will be town. This leads you fellas to a 2/5 situation, in which shaft.ed is almost certainly town, with oman and vollkan close behind. So take those 3 out and you guys will have a perfect 2 mafia choice to lynch. Not bad, eh?

Lynches happen in daytime...

If maf lynched, it likely becomes 6:2.
If you cut out AlyG, Shafted, Oman, myself and yourself that means there is one townie and 2 mafia for you to pick. If you misvig, however, that makes it 5:2. With the maf NK, that makes 4:2 LYLO!

Now, all of this rests on your assumption that Oman is pro-town. I don't doubt shaft.ed and I kind of have to accept you and AlyG for this to make sense, but Oman is actually suspicious and I would certainly not place him on my "confirmed townie list".

This leads to another question: If I target someone in night and the same person targets me, what happens?

You both die.

[originality]

Ok, I am retarded. I've been forgetting to count myself out of the peoplecount, so here's another.

I realise a lot of this is based on assumptions, but for me AlyG is guaranteed town, and shaft.ed pretty much also. Vollkan and Oman COULD still be scum but I rather doubt it, however they are not confirmed at all so I'm going to do a recounting this time without them in the "definitely town" part.

Lynching a town tonight: 3/5 chance of me getting mafia at night. [Lets say I not count Oman and Vollkan, that would make a 100% chance of hitting scum.]

Lynching scum tonight: 2/5 chance of getting mafia. [Without Oman and Vollkan 2/3, which is still pretty good though not perfect.]

Everyone might want to take these into consideration.

And remember, this is assuming we have 3 scum. Let's see, if we have 2, it would be:

If we lynch town today, 2/7 chance of me getting scum at night. Without Oman and Vollkan, 2/5. Rather risky, but still almost 50%.

Lynching scum, 1/7 chance of scumkilling tonight. No Oman and Vollkan, 1/5. Terrible odds. Lets follow through with this particular train of thought and see the how the next day would bring us 1/6, assuming I don't kill. If I do kill, the odds say I will hit town which would be 1/5. Bad: A lot of townie deaths. Good: No lylo, we have more leisure. So next day, lets say we lynch another town, 1/4. I try to kill and hit a town, 1/3, plus the scum kill 1/2. Now its lylo. Ok, same situation but I don't kill. Town has another whole day till lylo. (all this assuming I'm still alive).

In the end, numbers sort of go out the window I guess, what matters most is good judgement on part of the town. Still these odds are useful, especially the one considering we have 3 mafia, so what do you guys think?

[originality]

Under this new light from vollkan that we almost certainly have 3 mafia, you can disregard the bottom part of my last post. And here's what I personally think will (or at least should) happen today: we lynch dybeck. He is mafia. A third of the people at night will be mafia. Not counting AlyG and shaft.ed, half the people are mafia.

So are you guys up for the risk is this happens?


And: If I target someone, and someone else targets me, do I kill my target and then the other kills me or does he just kill me and I don't kill at all?

[vollkan]

Lynching a town tonight: 3/5 chance of me getting mafia at night. [Lets say I not count Oman and Vollkan, that would make a 100% chance of hitting scum.]

Lynching scum tonight: 2/5 chance of getting mafia. [Without Oman and Vollkan 2/3, which is still pretty good though not perfect.]

LYNCHES HAPPEN IN DAYTIME!! *esplodes*

If we lynch town today, 2/7 chance of me getting scum at night. Without Oman and Vollkan, 2/5. Rather risky, but still almost 50%.

No..
Assuming it is 6:3
If town is lynched than it is 5:3. Cutting out yourself, AlyG and shaft.ed for the vigging leaves it as 2:3. Your odds are 3/5 of getting scum.

However, if you phail (which seems likely given the calibre of your selection yesterday), then you will drop the overall game to 4:3. Then, when scum NK, it becomes 3:3 -->

A LOSS!

Don't get wrapped up in your probabilities because you are losing sight of the game situation. If town is lynched today, your vigging has a 2/5 chance of causing us to lose.

Lynching scum, 1/7 chance of scumkilling tonight. No Oman and Vollkan, 1/5. Terrible odds. Lets follow through with this particular train of thought and see the how the next day would bring us 1/6, assuming I don't kill. If I do kill, the odds say I will hit town which would be 1/5. Bad: A lot of townie deaths. Good: No lylo, we have more leisure. So next day, lets say we lynch another town, 1/4. I try to kill and hit a town, 1/3, plus the scum kill 1/2. Now its lylo. Ok, same situation but I don't kill. Town has another whole day till lylo. (all this assuming I'm still alive).

If scum lynched = 6:2
Therefore, at night you have a selection of 3:2.
It is more likely you will hit town, by pure probability.
If you fail, it becomes 5:2.
Then with scum NK it becomes 4:2

LYLO!

In short, your vigging is dangerous to us.

In the end, numbers sort of go out the window I guess, what matters most is good judgement on part of the town. Still these odds are useful, especially the one considering we have 3 mafia, so what do you guys think?

I think you are losing sight of the game.

[Oman]

but Oman is actually suspicious and I would certainly not place him on my "confirmed townie list".

I don't think I've earned that place, but if orig says he sees that I'm town, I'm not going to argue. Just to clarify, I'm not saying I'm not town, I'm merely saying I agree that I shouldn't be "confirmed".

I'm very happy that originality is actually thinking about this hard now, it means he's more likely to hit scum.

Also, I've been in mini's with 8:3:1 (SK) They suck for town.

I'd also like to get on this "Wasn't Elias in the Game?" Wagon

unvote vote elias

[vollkan]

Under this new light from vollkan that we almost certainly have 3 mafia, you can disregard the bottom part of my last post. And here's what I personally think will (or at least should) happen today: we lynch dybeck. He is mafia. A third of the people at night will be mafia. Not counting AlyG and shaft.ed, half the people are mafia.

So are you guys up for the risk is this happens?

Read what I just posted. I am most definitely NOT up for this risk.

And: If I target someone, and someone else targets me, do I kill my target and then the other kills me or does he just kill me and I don't kill at all?

You both kill each other.

[Streeflo]

Votecounts #15 and #16 fixed

Dr Blackstrike

has not responded for almost a week. He has not made any posts on the site since September 19th. I will begin searching for a replacement, unless he comes back before I find one.

[vollkan]

I'd also like to get on this "Wasn't Elias in the Game?" Wagon

unvote vote elias

hi shafted. I am currently weighed down by multiple games and I am not fully caught up yet. I have a life outside of mafiascum and I'm signed up for too many games, and trying to stay in all of them. I think I will be completely caught up at the end of the week. I dont plan to start making any special effort based on your vote, so I guess its an ok time to tell you youre wasting it, until the weekend, at least until some of my near-LYLO games are concluded.

Why bother with this lurker wagon. He clearly is not going to budge.

[Oman]

Unvote

I missed that post.

Thanks for pointing it out Vollkan.

[originality]

Vollkan, I have been posting at the same time as you so I haven't seen your answers in time, chill out.

I know lynches are performed in the day phase, "tonight" its just an expression.


I think this Elias wagon is up to no good since he just said he won't be able to defend himself or anything, and I believe him when he says he has a lot to do, so let's wait a bit for him to say something real and then we can do whatever we have to.

I think that under certain situations (if we hit town) then my vigkill would be pretty good. I think this subject should be discussed in twilight though.

[originality]

Apologies for my shitty maths, I am tired. I will go over this tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Apologies for my shitty maths, I am tired. I will go over this tomorrow.

Don't apologise for them. By saying what you

think

is the situation you allow me to correct you. If you didn't post your dodgy maths than you would go on thinking that way and could very well cause us to lose.

I think that under certain situations (if we hit town) then my vigkill would be pretty good. I think this subject should be discussed in twilight though.

No. If we lynch a town today then your vigkill has a 2/5 chance of causing us to lose. There is no way you should take that risk.

Even if you did hit mafia, D3 would open at 4:2, which is LYLO, same situation as if you don't vig (4:3). Obviously, a 4:3 LYLO is "worse" since it is inescapable LYLO (given that you will be NKed in all likelihood), but I am not willing to stake the game on it.

[Streeflo]

Gemelli

replaces

Dr Blackstrike

effective immediately.

Let's give a warm welcome to him for replacing in so quickly!

[vollkan]

Wow! Many, many thanks to Streeflo and Gemelli.

[Oman]

HAI GEMELLI!

[originality]

I love you Gemelli. Now roleclaim.


Just kidding. But, you know, if you have anything that's rather useful, don't be shy.

[Oman]

Confirming that Streeflo should give all of BS's previous choices and results to Gemelli.

[Streeflo]

Oh whoops, forgot to send him his role PM. XDXDXD.
Yes, Gemelli will receive all previous choices and results made by BS. Anything BS knew Gemelli will have a right to know.

Edit:

Role PM Sent

[Lucienne]

Thanks for not replcing me. I'm back.

I don't think AlyG is scum, really. I believe his claim.

Orig is a bit different. I'm relatively okay with his claim, I'm also seeing the possibility of him being an SK. However, if he is a vig this would be a terrible loss - he obviousy shouldn't be targetted. In short - I find it more likely that he would be a vig than an SK, but I'll be watching him.

Interesting in 541 how Dybeck asks Elias for help - possible scum partnership?

I HATE Oman's vote for Elias. It is sheer bandwagoning for no real reason.

Also, can someone explain all the Maths? I'm getting confused.

Most likely to vote for Oman at this point. I didn't like the way he responded badly to lotsof Vollkan's points, and some of his answers match those that benefit the Mafia.

[vollkan]

I don't think AlyG is scum, really. I believe his claim.

Orig is a bit different. I'm relatively okay with his claim, I'm also seeing the possibility of him being an SK. However, if he is a vig this would be a terrible loss - he obviousy shouldn't be targetted. In short - I find it more likely that he would be a vig than an SK, but I'll be watching him.

Yes; there seems to be some agreement that he is very much more likely vig than SK and probably more likely vig than mafia (though he may well be mafia).

Interesting in 541 how Dybeck asks Elias for help - possible scum partnership?

I completely missed that!

Interesting observation. That's the sort of thing we really need to be hunting for if we are assuming AlyG and Orig are pro-town.

Also, can someone explain all the Maths? I'm getting confused.

We all were.

Basically, in terms of town:mafia:SK, the likely situations we are currently in are:
A 6:3:0 --> This is where Orig is vig
B 6:2:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK
C 5:3:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK

Obviously, if Orig is telling the truth, only option A is possible.

Assuming Orig is the vig and that Orig is NKed tonight:
If we lynch town today, it goes to 5:3.
The scum NK makes that 4:3 (LYLO). Hence, we don't want Orig to NK because that will put us at a risk of 3:3 (LOSS).

If we lynch scum today, it goes to 5:2.
The scum NK makes that 5:2. If Orig mis-vigs, he will put it to 4:2 (LYLO). Hence, it is most likely a good idea not to vig.

For options B and C above, the outcomes are much more chaotic (as you will have seen).

Most likely to vote for Oman at this point. I didn't like the way he responded badly to lotsof Vollkan's points, and some of his answers match those that benefit the Mafia.

Oman is, IMO, slightly less anti-town than Dybeck. Oman has, at least, withdrawn things and I can see him making a genuine blunder.

[AlyG]

Anyway, I have some more questions for you:
1) What do you think about Carrot's case against you?
2) What do you think of Orig?
3) What do you think of Dybeck?
4) What do you think is the best course of action today?

1) Here is his post and his response:

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it

Vote: AlyG
for spreading confusion and hate

Ok, First of all i've already explained why i kept my vote on Vampeaneze. Please re-read my posts. It was so he would remain pressured and be more inclined to defend himself. If i unvoted him he would have been less pressured and we wouldv'e had to deal with him lurking even longer. I kept him pressured so he would stay pressured and urged everyone not to lynch him until he provides a good explanation.

Secondly, i'm not invoking hate. I'm just saying that i'm annoyed that if he is the doctor he has hampered our chances of winning and is now surely going to get NK'd. It isn't spreading hate. It's annoyance. And another thing, he could also be claiming doc to get on the town's good side and avoid getting lynched. Which i believe i have already said?

Thirdly, i feel my arguments are my own and i aren't parroting. My whole argument against originality was my own and people have been using those points from argument in theirs. Such as Oman who's arguments against originality were for Contradiction, and his eager to lynch. 2 reasons outlined in my arguments. But that's your opinion. I just feel my arguments have been mine.

Fourthly, How how was i eager to put a 4th vote on originality? I actually held back from voting him! Because adding a 4th vote so early is going a bit to far. My argument against Oman for adding a 4th vote is perfectly just. Because he was eager to vote. While i wasn't.

Mod, can we get a prod on thesleepless? He said he would be back on Sunday or monday and now it's Thursday.

This is what i think of Carrot's post. I also believe that in that post he missed many important points of my actions like when he accused me of telling someone that putting someone on a 4th vote is going a bit to far, followed by me a few pages later threatening to put someone on a 4th. His argument was that i was to eager and contradicting myself. My defense was this:

Fourthly, How how was i eager to put a 4th vote on originality? I actually held back from voting him! Because adding a 4th vote so early is going a bit to far. My argument against Oman for adding a 4th vote is perfectly just. Because he was eager to vote. While i wasn't.

See i actually held back from voting him in the first place! He made some strong points but i believe most of it was flawed. that's my response.

2) I'm not sure whether i believe orig's claim or not. It's very suspicious how he chose to killl one of our most pro-town players and even though he may well be the vig. His past actions can't go down the drain. I'm still very suspicious of him.

3) Dybeck, you have done some very weird plays during Day 2 such as voting shaft.ed for saying "Oh great we may have a serial killer." It isn't scummy it's an observation! You are also very eager with your votes e.g. after i claimed you immediately voted originality while completely ignoring the other roles that he could possibly be. You also have overlooked lots of information before posting e.g. Asking Originality why he killed CarrotCake when he had already posted his reason a page ago. Overall, he has been playing really weird and IMO scummy so

HOS: Dybeck

4) I think the best course of action is to first hear from Elias and Blackstrike's replacement befor emaking any big decisions. I think that the best targets at this time to lynch are either originality or Dybeck.