Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

Ugh, can't respond tonight. Preparing for a debate tournament tomorrow. As a result, I won't be here tomorrow either.

[Korlash]

He's always been a "possible mafia". He has the strongest links with dybeck and I intend to debate him on this.

Like I said I plan on rereading everything you two have said today and even a bit from yesterday. I want to hold off commenting on the case until I am up to speed and understand both sides. I should have my own views then tomorrow.

Preparing for a debate tournament tomorrow.

Hey I never even thought of that. I guess this game (mafia in general, not this particualar game that is...) Must make some good practice for debating... I have always wondered why I play it, I suppose I just like to argue

[vollkan]

Oh yes, I am pleased to say that I may have found a clue as to shaft.ed's investigation results.

I am remained tight-lipped until we hear something substantial from everybody.

Moreover, I would appreciate it if everybody listed each remaining player (excluding Orig and AlyG) in order of suspicion.

Mine should be obvious from the percentage thing, but anyway:
1) Elias
2) Gemelli
3T) Korlash
3T) Lucienne

[Korlash]

Ok... But FYI this is still without my reread of current events.. this list is primarily based on yesterday...

1) Vollkan
2) Gemelli
3) Eias
4) Lucienne

Things will change come reread time...

[originality]

Assuming that there are either two or three mafia left, this leaves Elias and Lucienne as the most likely suspects from my perspective, with Korlash a distant third. For the rest of you, I should obviously be included in the suspect category.

This.




Okay, I totally did not expect to be alive right now. But I understand the mafia's play, not offing me or AlyG (scared of an unpredictable doctor etc) and instead killing shaft.ed, arguably the town's best player. I suppose they might have seen some cop-tell from him based on his reactions about dybec's claim, but I think its more likely he was just killed for being helpful.

About AlyG's result, its definitely not a town-confirmation on Lucienne. In fact, mafia would send the other goon for the kill, since Lucienne was pretty high up in people's suspicions last night, making her a more likely AlyG investigation then the other partner.

shaft.ed's role blew me away. Totally did not expect it. Anyway, today's kill confirms me as non-mafia at least. Hooha.


By the way vollkan,

very

interesting analysis of Elias.

[vollkan]

Now this is just intriguing.

In descending order of scumminess

1) dybeck
2) Orig
3) Elias
4) Vollkan
5) Gemelli
6) shaft.ed
7) AlyG and Lucienne

Korlash, on what basis have Gemelli and myself moved to the top of your suspicion list?

[vollkan]

I assume by the "this" thing, that was your suspicions, Orig.

Okay, I totally did not expect to be alive right now. But I understand the mafia's play, not offing me or AlyG (scared of an unpredictable doctor etc) and instead killing shaft.ed, arguably the town's best player. I suppose they might have seen some cop-tell from him based on his reactions about dybec's claim, but I think its more likely he was just killed for being helpful.

I agree with this. Even though shaft.ed and I agreed on most things, he had attracted no suspicion because his playstyle is much more stable than mine (in that shaft.ed did not do things solely for the purpose of judging reactions).

[Korlash]

If I remember correctly I only ranked him so high because at that time I was trying to get him to post more and I did not like his reactions to what I said. I really have not seen any connections to Dybeck form him. I have yet to do my reread! Had to do stuff today... T_T

To answer your question...

Korlash, on what basis have Gemelli and myself moved to the top of your suspicion list?

I did a huge post of current events and more or less ruled Elias out right before the thread was locked.. 4 minutes late!!! Freaking 2 hours out of my life... gone...

I think I had a new list in there too correcting the one you made for me... In fact the list you quoted was YOUR list for me, not my own... Interesting... your not trying to set me up are you? o.O Or is it another trap?

Hmmm...

[vollkan]

I think I had a new list in there too correcting the one you made for me... In fact the list you quoted was YOUR list for me, not my own... Interesting... your not trying to set me up are you? o.O Or is it another trap?

It was your "Lynch/Vote" list.

[Korlash]

What page did I post it on? I looked and couldn't find it

[vollkan]

Page 53, post 1310.

You gave a lynch/vote list and a pressure list.

[Korlash]

So in other words 4 pages ago... 3 pages before I was suppose to update my list. So yeah... My views changed in those 3 pages. I find it more or less unnecessary to go over it again as I am about to create a new list once I reread. So unless you find it absolutely essential to know what placed you on top of this list mere posts before I give you a completely new list I think I will just move on.

Not trying to be a jerk you see, just trying to avoid any unnecessary attacks or statements I may or may not be pulling once I get my new list up. ^^

And thank you for finding it... I missed it when I looked. Thanks again!

[vollkan]

So in other words 4 pages ago... 3 pages before I was suppose to update my list. So yeah... My views changed in those 3 pages. I find it more or less unnecessary to go over it again as I am about to create a new list once I reread. So unless you find it absolutely essential to know what placed you on top of this list mere posts before I give you a completely new list I think I will just move on.

Well, logically, Orig is not likely to be mafia and dybeck is dead mafia which cuts those two off the top of the list. The puzzling thing is why you shuffle Elias down the order, implying that he has done something to make him appear less suspicious to you than me.

I do consider it important that you explain this.

There are two alternative lines of question which follow here:
1)

First line of question

a) What did I do that made me

more suspicious

than Elias?
b) What did Gemelli do that made him

more suspicious than Elias

?

2)

Second line of question

a) What did Elias do that made him

less suspicious

than me?
b) What did Elias do that made him

less suspicious

than Gemelli?

And, Korlash, I am going to press this point firmly. I want answers for this. You only need to answer stream 1 or 2, but you must answer both the a) and the b).

[Korlash]

Ok both A and B from line 2:

*Cough*

He posted more...

Ok Done... On with the reread!

[vollkan]

He posted more...

Hmm...interesting...

Right so the change occurred from 1310.

Let's have a look at what Elias posted in that time:

When I promised my opinion on the Gem-Vollkan debate yesterday, I didnt realize that today is halloween. That post will have to wait for tomorrow.

A promise of content.

And then there was 1356 where Elias just reiterated the blasting which shaft.ed and I had already given to dybeck's answers to our questions.

And then....NOTHING until the end of the day.

So basically, Elias became less suspicious than me for nothing more than the fact that he made a post which was in concurrence with my own position.

FoS: Korlash

[Korlash]

Take it how you will... You more or less called it... what did you say... A "Pissing match"

If you cannot even realize you justed called any case I had on him a "pissing match" and am now expecting to hold me to it, you are seriously whacked up in the head man...

So far in my reread I either disagree with Vollkan's points or agree with Elias's defense in some way. I do not feel like quoting every little thing as I am super tired so I only point out a few things...

1) Your "Post 541" Thing does make a good reason to suspect Elias. But it is more or less a bad attack. It could in fact prove a partnership between them, and so yes I think putting Elias on the chopping block right now is more or less a worthwhile ting, however. You cannot prove anything off of it as the person who said it is dead. So any attack you base off this quote is worthless.

Do I think Elias COULD be mafia= yes, have I seen any attack against him that makes me think he is vote worthy= no

the other thing is your post 1127 thing. I also find it odd that he would not mention Dybeck at all. I can agree with his excuse, as he was only going off your list, however he says "Cop or mafia" but int he post says the three mafia are "ME, gem, and Lucienne" and so his excuse kinda contradicts his post.

Still not enough to vote but more or less a greater reason to suspect him!

Also, I would be more inclined to trust your cases Vollkan if you stopped assuming you know what everyone woudl do. You said something about "Knowing how scum would act" in a certain situation which more or less made any point you had just made worthless to me. I am getting a bit annoyed at having to argue my cases only to have you think you are GOD and know everything about everyone...

Thats about all I have to say right now... I am still waiting for you to "Get to Gem" as you mentioned earlier...

Also is it possible Orig is an SK who just didn't NK to try and look Vig? I saw you ranked him at 65% and said it was because you still had feelings he was an SK but what would the odds be of an SK not killing to look like a vig? Also would it still be bad to not lynch him if he is the Sk? Just a question. All I want is an honest answer here...

[vollkan]

Take it how you will... You more or less called it... what did you say... A "Pissing match"

If you cannot even realize you justed called any case I had on him a "pissing match" and am now expecting to hold me to it, you are seriously whacked up in the head man...

The fact your "case" on Elias was complete BS does not make him "less suspicious", though.

Moreover, I called it a pissing match in 1301, which was before you ranked Elias #3. Thus, if my dismissal of the case was really the reason that you chose to drop Elias back (and make me most suspicious, which is odd given that you allegedly were prepared to accept my criticism of the case on Elias) then makes absolutely no sense that you still held Elias under such suspicion.

1) Your "Post 541" Thing does make a good reason to suspect Elias. But it is more or less a bad attack. It could in fact prove a partnership between them, and so yes I think putting Elias on the chopping block right now is more or less a worthwhile ting, however. You cannot prove anything off of it as the person who said it is dead. So any attack you base off this quote is worthless.

Korlash, the statements of dead mafioso are tremendously valuable.

In one theme game (ongoing unfortunately), the majority of the scum were eliminated purely by virtue of tiny little slips like dybeck's in 541.

The hardest part of this game (mafia generally) is lynching the first member of a scumgroup. Once that is done, a wealth of knowledge is opened up.

Also, I would be more inclined to trust your cases Vollkan if you stopped assuming you know what everyone woudl do. You said something about "Knowing how scum would act" in a certain situation which more or less made any point you had just made worthless to me. I am getting a bit annoyed at having to argue my cases only to have you think you are GOD and know everything about everyone...

I already explained this. I don't pretend to have a perfect grasp of scum psychology. What I look for are links which can frame a certain perspective on things.

Blindly sitting here and saying "Well maybe dybeck was just wifoming us so any speculation is useless" doesn't help at all. I prefer to jump in with a few assumptions to get a certain framework for my analysis based on what things look like to me.

So, effectively, what I am saying is that I do not know what dybeck actually meant, but I am going to rationalise it in the way I think most likely so that I can best direct my thoughts.

Of course, I have not completely expounded what I think is happening here, and I will not do so until I have heard from Gemelli, AlyG and Lucienne.

Also is it possible Orig is an SK who just didn't NK to try and look Vig? I saw you ranked him at 65% and said it was because you still had feelings he was an SK but what would the odds be of an SK not killing to look like a vig? Also would it still be bad to not lynch him if he is the Sk? Just a question. All I want is an honest answer here...

The odds are good. A SK kill last night would have been a very risky move.

Our current situation is most likely 4:2:1 or 5:2.

If it were 4:2:1, Orig SKing would have caused either 3:2:1 or 4:1:1. Whilst 4:1:1 is obviously good, the 3:2:1 situation is VERY bad for a SK

Thus, his non-NKing does not prove too much, though it does make the vig scenario slightly more feasible. Moreover, the fact that he hammered so quickly suggests he knew dybeck's investigation was bs. Again, pointing to him being pro-town.

Now, as for the lynching, that requires numbers. Thankyou for bringing this up and reminding me.

Assuming Orig is SK,

SK Lynch

SK lynch = 4:2:0
MafNK = 3:2:0 LYLO

Mafia Lynch

Maflynch = 4:1:1
MafNK = 3:1:1
--Orig NK town = 2:1:1 See below
--Orig NK mafia = 3:0:1 Town win.

In 2:1:1

No lynch

Nolynch = 2:1:1
MafNK town = 1:1:1
--Orig NK town = 0:1:1 LOSS. Mafia and Orig draw.
--Orig NK mafia = 1:0:1 LOSS. Orig wins.
MafNK Orig = 2:1:0
--Orig NK town = 1:1:0 LOSS. Mafia wins.
--Orig NK mafia = 2:0:0 WIN. Town wins.

Thus, in the event of a no lynch in 2:1:1, the mafia can be guaranteed to NK Orig, since that is the only way they can win.

Mafia lynch

Maflynch = 2:0:1
Orig NK = 1:0:1 LOSS. Orig wins.

Orig lynch

Origlynch = 2:1:0
Maf NK = 1:1:0 LOSS. Mafia wins.

To summarise:
If we lynch Orig, we are at 3:2:0 LYLO regardless of his alignment.

Lynching a mafioso will put us at 3:1:1, 2:1:1 (wcs) or 3:0:1 (bcs) if Orig is SK. If Orig is vig, lynching a mafioso makes it 4:1, 3:1 (wcs) or 4:0 (bcs).

Now, the 3:1:1 situation is, I would argue, better than 3:2:0 because we know the identity of the SK. A mislynch is not a guaranteed loss (unlike 3:2:0) and, moreover, if we lynch mafia we can simply lynch Orig and win.

The only risk of going after mafia again is the prospect of the 2:1:1 which may result if both Orig and the mafia target townies tonight. Given that Orig has no significant advantage from NKing the mafia (since at best it will just cause 3:0:1, which is his loss) it is unlikely he would NK. Plus, the 2:1:1 situation is terrible for him, since the logical move for the mafia is to NK Orig and then hope that Orig hits a townie instead.

Thus, I am going to be very clear on this

lynching Orig is not an option

. He may well be a pro-town vig and, even if he is not, the mafia is still a more urgent priority.

[Korlash]

Moreover, I called it a pissing match in 1301, which was before you ranked Elias #3. Thus, if my dismissal of the case was really the reason that you chose to drop Elias back (and make me most suspicious, which is odd given that you allegedly were prepared to accept my criticism of the case on Elias) then makes absolutely no sense that you still held Elias under such suspicion.

A) Way back when I asked if my case against Elias was justified or a waste of time, YOU said it was a waste of time long before post 1301.

2) How is it odd I accept your criticism on the case on Elias? Does that even make sense to anyone else? I can barely follow that one... Was it an attack at me? Is it the current case or the previous case? What the heck are you talking about?

and lastly) I only held him under suspicion because I clearly saw you had some kind of case going on him and thus he HAD to have something suspicious about him if it was worth a full page of discussion. I hadn't read it yet so I did not know exactly HOW high I should rank him and so I went with the safe bet of assuming it was not that much at the time.

Korlash, the statements of dead mafioso are tremendously valuable.

In one theme game (ongoing unfortunately), the majority of the scum were eliminated purely by virtue of tiny little slips like dybeck's in 541.

The hardest part of this game (mafia generally) is lynching the first member of a scumgroup. Once that is done, a wealth of knowledge is opened up.

Agreed, the dead mafia do open up new doorways... Am I wrong when I remember you using Dybeck's list of putting Elias at 30% as an attack? Didn't you also mention something about Dybeck calling you town at some point? Couldn't one then use the same argument against you that you are currently using against Elias?

My main point on this matter, is that you more or less took the fact Elias tried to answer it and claimed he was "reaching" when in fact his answer sounded perfectly logical to me. Granted you came back with a not so bad counter attack by mentioning how little he posted but overall I still feel claiming him to be reaching at that point a bit extreme.

Our current situation is most likely 4:2:1 or 5:2.

Pardon my French, but no shit!

As for your numbers I am finally glad to admit I read them for a change XD

The only thing is, you completely skipped the lynching a town today scenario...

Let me see...

Lynching town puts us at
3:2:1
Mafia NK: 2:2:1
Orig town kill: 1:2:1 (Mafia win)
Orig mafia Kill: 2:1:1 (Not a bad scenario)

I think I did that right...

Also... If we kill all the mafia but still let the SK live we still win right? So I totally get leaving Orig alive... Ok... So we scratch him off the list...

And while i find AlyG still alive I can accept a WIFOM Doc thing... So for now (And most likely forever) I scratch him off the list...

Leaving me with Gem, Lucienne, Elias, and you Vollkan...

So my new list...
1) Vollkan (You still seem to base too much of your case on hat you believe they should or will do. It makes me doubt most of the stuff you bring to the table. While I believe I can learn a lot from you i feel you try to hard to sway people by voicing what you believe a scum woudl do in certain situations.)
2) Elias (While I do not agree with at least half of Vollkan's case I believe there is enough evidence to suggest a partnership with Dybeck. Further proof will be required but I would not be against more pressure/discussion on the matter.)
3) Gem (While I do not remember much of him Advocating Dybeck the fact he brings it up means it happened somewhere. Vollkan said he would get to it and has yet too... Avoiding pressuring your scum partner?:P )
4) Lucienne (Cannot remember the last time I heard her speak... Got a no result from AlyG, could be she never sent in any target, could be she got RBed, could be she is vanilla. Would appreciate some input ASAP)

So knowing I am town, assuming AlyG is town, and Assuming Orig is "not mafia" I am left with 4 people... so a 50% chance to hit scum... Not enough to vote any of you! So... i shall keep reading!

[vollkan]

A) Way back when I asked if my case against Elias was justified or a waste of time, YOU said it was a waste of time long before post 1301.

This furthers exactly what I was saying about me having dismissed your case against Elias.

2) How is it odd I accept your criticism on the case on Elias? Does that even make sense to anyone else? I can barely follow that one... Was it an attack at me? Is it the current case or the previous case? What the heck are you talking about?

My criticism being valid has two effects: 1) It makes Elias's scumminess decrease; and 2) It makes me your biggest suspect.

Now, if I am your biggest suspect (ie. most likely mafioso) and I am criticising your case for Elias being mafia, that would logically suggest that you should have some level of skepticism about my criticism. And yet, you take my criticism on board and have yet to even posit the possibility.

and lastly) I only held him under suspicion because I clearly saw you had some kind of case going on him and thus he HAD to have something suspicious about him if it was worth a full page of discussion. I hadn't read it yet so I did not know exactly HOW high I should rank him and so I went with the safe bet of assuming it was not that much at the time.

Erm...you said:

simply because I feel he overreacted to my simple statement... No chance of me voting him because I know one of the above two will turn out to be scum. Still feel I would like him to participate a bit more in active discussions and so I am looking forward to his post tomorrow! ^^

You make no mention of me having a case against him and, moreover, you JUST SAID that I had said that the case against him was doubtful.

Agreed, the dead mafia do open up new doorways... Am I wrong when I remember you using Dybeck's list of putting Elias at 30% as an attack? Didn't you also mention something about Dybeck calling you town at some point? Couldn't one then use the same argument against you that you are currently using against Elias?

Sure you could. If you want to argue that I am mafia with dybeck, by all means go ahead. However, I agree with shaft.ed:

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this.

I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan.

Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.

I've already said it looks like he was buddying up to me, and shaft.ed took the same view.

Pardon my French, but no shit!

Nice to see you are so convinced that there are 2 mafia remaining. I was unsure as to whether there was 1 or 2, given Orig could be SK, but you seem convinced that we have 3 mafia. I wonder why you are so sure....

The only thing is, you completely skipped the lynching a town today scenario...

I was determining our best course of action. Thus, lynching a townie was not something within my scope of reasoning.

3:2:1
Mafia NK: 2:2:1
Orig town kill: 1:2:1 (Mafia win)
Orig mafia Kill: 2:1:1 (Not a bad scenario)

No, not bad at all. Having to rely on scum cross-kills to have a hope of winning is no big deal /sarcasm

So my new list...
1) Vollkan (You still seem to base too much of your case on hat you believe they should or will do. It makes me doubt most of the stuff you bring to the table. While I believe I can learn a lot from you i feel you try to hard to sway people by voicing what you believe a scum woudl do in certain situations.)
2) Elias (While I do not agree with at least half of Vollkan's case I believe there is enough evidence to suggest a partnership with Dybeck. Further proof will be required but I would not be against more pressure/discussion on the matter.)
3) Gem (While I do not remember much of him Advocating Dybeck the fact he brings it up means it happened somewhere. Vollkan said he would get to it and has yet too... Avoiding pressuring your scum partner?Razz )
4) Lucienne (Cannot remember the last time I heard her speak... Got a no result from AlyG, could be she never sent in any target, could be she got RBed, could be she is vanilla. Would appreciate some input ASAP)

You know, you still haven't explained why you think I am scummy. I've told you that I am not assuming anything as prima facie fact, but I make assumptions to prompt reasoning.

In fact, you actually give more evidence against Elias and Gemelli than you do against me.

[Korlash]

This furthers exactly what I was saying about me having dismissed your case against Elias.

MAKE UP YOUR MIND! First you critisize me because I dropped Elias down a couple slots, now you think you need to Further kill my case against him.. What.. Do you want me to put him last? Seriously... Pick a side of your attack and stick to it... I am not debating you killed my case, that only proves why he dropped so much! God...

Now, if I am your biggest suspect (ie. most likely mafioso) and I am criticising your case for Elias being mafia, that would logically suggest that you should have some level of skepticism about my criticism. And yet, you take my criticism on board and have yet to even posit the possibility.

what possibility? I have skepticism about YOUR case on Elias.. why would I then have skepticism about MY case on Elias... I had doubts about my case yesterday and so you agreeing with me does not require me to analyze it any further then that.

You make no mention of me having a case against him and, moreover, you JUST SAID that I had said that the case against him was doubtful.

I meant the case today... go read your last three posts on the last page.. you more or less outline a big case on Elais.. and furthermore your case was so good it was worth a vote... so yes... MY case against him YESTERDAY was bad, but apparently there is a NEW case against him TODAY!

nice to see you are so convinced that there are 2 mafia remaining. I was unsure as to whether there was 1 or 2, given Orig could be SK, but you seem convinced that we have 3 mafia. I wonder why you are so sure....

Yeah I am pretty sure there are 2 mafia as currently I see more evidence pointing towards vig then SK... Even with an Sk I would still assume three total mafia... Unless the Sk is pro-mafia... Either way your numbers never seem to be anything other then 2 mafia so don't try to force this type of attack on me without realizing it is easily thrown back at you...

I was determining our best course of action. Thus, lynching a townie was not something within my scope of reasoning.

Really? I seem to remember you focusing on WCSs yesterday.. why the sudden change in heart?

No, not bad at all. Having to rely on scum cross-kills to have a hope of winning is no big deal /sarcasm

I no speak English well.. explain to me this "Scum Cross-kills"...

You know, you still haven't explained why you think I am scummy. I've told you that I am not assuming anything as prima facie fact, but I make assumptions to prompt reasoning.

Oh I think I went into great deal as to why I think your scummy yesterday... Adding onto that your constant basing of attacks on how you feel the person should and IS playing, Plus the fact you keep saying lynching Orig is a bad idea because he will just be NKed anyways yet the mere fact he is alive does not change anything COULD< key word, imply that you two are the last scum. I feel that is more then enough to explain why you are number 1. Now, if I had voted you I would have outlined a full case citing examples.. and the like... but until then my list is based on personal feelings and not so much hard evidence.

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

As for Prima facie.. You were quick to put a vote on someone day 3... Now I am not so sure about this... we have what... 6 players? no 7 players... So what.. 4 to lynch... granted not so much a fear of a quick lynch yet.. but I still find a vote this early a little odd... Again nothing vote worthy but enough to further my reason for why I deem you #1 material.

[vollkan]

MAKE UP YOUR MIND! First you critisize me because I dropped Elias down a couple slots, now you think you need to Further kill my case against him.. What.. Do you want me to put him last? Seriously... Pick a side of your attack and stick to it... I am not debating you killed my case, that only proves why he dropped so much! God...

You clearly have no idea what I am saying:

1) As you say, I was against your case against Elias that climaxed with the "pissing match".
2) Now, you have claimed that Elias became less suspicious to you because of this criticism made by me.
3) However, my attacks came

before

your scumdar post.
4) Your scumdar made no reference to my attacks

Now,
5) You have dropped Elias back down and offered a number of explanations:
a) That you made a massive post ruling him out. I'd love to see what "rules Elias out"
b) That he posted more. As I have shown, he posted nothing of substance.
c) That I had criticised the case myself

Aside from the fact that you are being slippery and changing the story, let me address c) in more detail.

* If my criticism had really meant anything to you, you would have commented on it in your scumdar. You didn't.
* Even if we take what you say as true: that my criticism made Elias made him less suspicious, things still look suspicious. This is because the effect of my criticism being valid is to make me the most suspicious. In other words, you would lose suspicion of somebody because your number 1 suspect says your case is trash.

what possibility? I have skepticism about YOUR case on Elias.. why would I then have skepticism about MY case on Elias... I had doubts about my case yesterday and so you agreeing with me does not require me to analyze it any further then that.

I have already addressed this.

Let me state it again,
If you accepted my criticism of your case, that has the effect of making me your #1. If I am #1, that should, in your mind, make it odd that I would effectively defend Elias. And yet, you never once question the integrity of my defence of Elias. You only question the integrity of my attack.

Yeah I am pretty sure there are 2 mafia as currently I see more evidence pointing towards vig then SK... Even with an Sk I would still assume three total mafia... Unless the Sk is pro-mafia... Either way your numbers never seem to be anything other then 2 mafia so don't try to force this type of attack on me without realizing it is easily thrown back at you...

Again, it's gone right over your head.

I do not know how many mafia there are. There may be two left, there may be one. Thus, I said it is "most likely 4:2:1 or 5:2." You responded with: "Pardon my French, but no shit!"

You suggested it was so blindly obvious that I should not have bothered.

And, again, you throw in a pathetic side-swipe at me: I have not been convinced there are 2 mafia right now; it is simply what me must assume for reasoning.

Really? I seem to remember you focusing on WCSs yesterday.. why the sudden change in heart?

Christ on a cracker! I just answered this. Lynching a townie is BAD. Thus, I need not contemplate it in terms of our best outcome. I was comparing lynching mafia to lynching Orig, because that was what YOU had asked me to do.

I no speak English well.. explain to me this "Scum Cross-kills"...

If mafia kill SK and SK kills mafia, they cross-kill. It just means where scum take out each other and no townie gets hurt.

Oh I think I went into great deal as to why I think your scummy yesterday...

Oh I think I would love to know which posts establish this

1

Adding onto that your constant basing of attacks on how you feel the person should and IS playing,

2

Plus the fact you keep saying lynching Orig is a bad idea because he will just be NKed anyways yet the mere fact he is alive does not change anything COULD< key word, imply that you two are the last scum.

1) I have now explained this at least 3 times and am not going to repeat myself. Suffice to say, this shows the level of thought in your suspicion of me.
2) For this to be the case, Orig would need to be mafia with dybeck (HIGHLY UNLIKELY in the EXTREME) and so would I (Even objectively, you are alleging some seriously extreme bussing).

Now, if I had voted you I would have outlined a full case citing examples.. and the like... but until then my list is based on personal feelings and not so much hard evidence.

Good. I'll remember that, at this point in time, your suspicions are based on nothing more than what appears to be your dislike of my playstyle.

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

I don't know, what evidence have you given against Gem that gives him the #2 position?

What I am seeing here, is that Korlash has arbitrarily shuffled his suspicion list to plant me at the top and to move Elias out of the way.

As for Prima facie.. You were quick to put a vote on someone day 3... Now I am not so sure about this... we have what... 6 players? no 7 players... So what.. 4 to lynch... granted not so much a fear of a quick lynch yet.. but I still find a vote this early a little odd... Again nothing vote worthy but enough to further my reason for why I deem you #1 material.

*blink*
My haste to pass a vote makes me suspicious when, as you say, there is no risk of a quick lynch. I have already said that one more vote will cause me to jump off.

It doesn't "further" your reasons; it basically is your reason. Despite how stupid a reason it is to suspect me, it is the only tangible point you have presented against me beyond mere gut feeling.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As an aside, I would

really

like AlyG, Lucienne and Gemelli to comment on this debate with Korlash and what you think it may suggest. As I have been saying, I have a theory but I need to see whether anyone else reaches the same conclusions without me influencing their thoughts by posting it.

[Korlash]

If my criticism had really meant anything to you, you would have commented on it in your scumdar. You didn't.

*sigh* this is getting old... stop trying to say you know how the hell I play.

That you made a massive post ruling him out. I'd love to see what "rules Elias out"

Yeah I should probably post that eh... I think I saved it somewhere... Also to clarify in the post I more or less focused on dybeck and my reasons to vote him and more or less ignored Elias so at the end where I made my new list I had moved him down mostly because I was ignoring him. So I suppose "ruled out" was the wrong vocabulary to use there. My bad.

You suggested it was so blindly obvious that I should not have bothered.

You never have.. the entire game.. looked at any situation involving only 2 mafia! NEVER! So when you , once again, come in and say "Oh guys I think our situation is still X:X:X or X:X:X just like i have said in my last 100 posts!" I of course reply with a snappy comeback because I hate when people say the same things over and over and over... *Hours later* ... mmmm chili... oh yeah!

Christ on a cracker! I just answered this. Lynching a townie is BAD. Thus, I need not contemplate it in terms of our best outcome. I was comparing lynching mafia to lynching Orig, because that was what YOU had asked me to do.

Ok that I can accept...

If mafia kill SK and SK kills mafia, they cross-kill. It just means where scum take out each other and no townie gets hurt.

Ok then show me where in my post I gave you the opportunity to be sarcastic about this situation then. Making fun of my numbers... Jerk...

Oh I think I would love to know which posts establish this

There is no one post... Go back and read any scumdar I ever made with sentences about the people, review the whole Vanilla town incident, and check out any posts I have ever made that gave connections between you and shaft.ed... I know I kept laying out evidence all day yesterday... But until i feel like voting you can go find it yourself...

2) For this to be the case, Orig would need to be mafia with dybeck (HIGHLY UNLIKELY in the EXTREME) and so would I (Even objectively, you are alleging some seriously extreme bussing).

Yeah... I don;t really believe it too much either.. but I am always paranoid of anyone who keeps insisting not to lynch player X. (And I am not saying I do not agree with you. Just paranoid. Notice no vote, no pressing a case, just mentioning it in hopes to lower my paranoia.)

Good. I'll remember that, at this point in time, your suspicions are based on nothing more than what appears to be your dislike of my playstyle.

More specifically my dislike of how you present your cases.. and so in my mind most of your cases, while very well thought out and explained, seem more or less BS once you begin to "tell how you think people should play" and to explain that means nothing to me I'm sorry. If you keep doing it, I will keep ignoring a lot of your better points because I feel they are baseless. And in so doing that I then feel you do not have enough on Elias to be attacking him, and in doing that I assume you are scum trying to push BS cases on people...

See it is all a domino effect to me. You say "I think this is how someone will play in this situation!" and then vote or press that attack a lot. So then I think "Oh this is BS" I post against it, you get on me, I reply back, we keep getting further and further away. And before you know it in your mind "I saved Elias" and in my mind "You just came at me with a fully BS case!"

see I think a lot of my feelings against you are mainly for that reason and no matter why you do it, as long as you do it I will feel the same... But if thats how you are going to play I will try to get over it...

I don't know, what evidence have you given against Gem that gives him the #2 position?

Um no... you answer this first:

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

Don't say something like:

In fact, you actually give more evidence against Elias and Gemelli than you do against me.

If you cannot back it up...

What I am seeing here, is that Korlash has arbitrarily shuffled his suspicion list to plant me at the top and to move Elias out of the way.

Or it could be I saw through your mafia ploy to mislynch Elias and actually foudn a real scum. Who knows right? (Oh you do don't you... thats right...)

It doesn't "further" your reasons; it basically is your reason. Despite how stupid a reason it is to suspect me, it is the only tangible point you have presented against me beyond mere gut feeling.

No I have made plenty of reasons.. none of which are worth a vote... but all of them make you more suspicious then the lurker, the supposed dybeck supporter (Which I do not see) and the pissing match guy... Sorry that is life...

As an aside, I would really like AlyG, Lucienne and Gemelli to comment on this debate with Korlash and what you think it may suggest. As I have been saying, I have a theory but I need to see whether anyone else reaches the same conclusions without me influencing their thoughts by posting it.

Anyone else find it odd Vollkan can never give his own reasons or theories before he hears them from us first? I mean take the example i this post.. I ask him a question, he asked me to answer it first because he has no answer to it. Now take this, he could give a theory. Who cares if it influences you guys, that is what this game is about. Yet instead he asks you guys for them first...

Ohhh... Tsk tsk... I could honestly see this as you sitting there without any theory at all hoping someone else has one you can jump behind and support. Normally I wouldn't automatically assume this but I find you do it quit a lot... (And yeah this is when you ask me to "Give examples" or whatever you do.. And trust me I will have a list when and IF i vote you.. no worries there...)

oh and I almost forgot;

My haste to pass a vote makes me suspicious when, as you say, there is no risk of a quick lynch. I have already said that one more vote will cause me to jump off.

I personally find voting in the first post of the day a little strange... But each player has his own play style (Even if yours is wacky...) So I do not label this a "Scumtell" and yes, I have no fear of a quick lynch. But at the same time I wonder why you would even say "I will unvote if another player votes!"

WHY EVEN VOTE? Can you answer this one... It has been bugging me ever sence you first said it a couple posts ago...

[Streeflo]

Day 3 Starts! Votecount #37!

Elias_the_Thief (1) - vollkan

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli, AlyG, Korlash, originality

With

7

alive it takes

4

to mercilessly drop someone from 10,000 feet!

[Korlash]

Hey what happens to all the dead bodies? Do we throw them out the door or try to flush them down the toilet? >.>

I mean wouldn't it be kinda weird to stay on a plain with like... all those dead people on it... *shudders*

[Gemelli]

Hey guys, sorry for the delay. Weekend LA hitting me again as usual.

For now, my mafia-suspect list would be:

1) Elias
2) Lucienne
3) Korlash
4) Vollkan

I laid out most of my grounds for this ranking in post 1393. Most of my D2 suspicions of Vollkan, as reflected in my PBPA, involved the scenario that he was mafia setting up townDybeck for a lynch. With Dybeck confirmed as mafia, Vollkan's level of suspicion is dramatically lower for me at least.

Regarding the other players, I've been going with the active hypothesis that orig and AlyG are both confirmed town, I look at how Dybeck treated the remaining players in his posts, and I find the following patterns (see detailed PBPA at the bottom of this post for details):

Vollkan:

Regularly attacked him on D2 as probable/possible mafia, most likely grouped with originality and/or shaft.ed. Relented near end of D2, claimed he was more pro-town. I think it is exceptionally unlikely that Vollkan is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Oman/Korlash:

Regularly attacked him on D1 and D2 as probable mafia. Insinuated that he was paired with originality. Also argued that he could be SK. Strongly pushed for his lynch at the end of D2. I think it is quite unlikely that Korlash is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Lucienne:

Mostly ignored D1. Included her on suspicion list starting in post 888. Suggested that she might be the SK, but never includes her as a mafia suspect. I think it is feasible that Lucienne is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Dr BS/Gemelli:

Attacked strongly D1. D2, ignored me most of the day. Post 1247, starts advocating me as strongly pro-town. Had I not read my own role PM, I would think it was quite feasible that I am aligned with Dybeck as mafia. I am the only one with positive evidence that this is not the case, but I don't expect the rest of you to take my word for it.

Elias:

Never suspects him. Not even once. Responds respectfully to him once, asks for his help, enthusiastically welcomes him back, is "fairy happy" with Elias as pro-town, and gives him a 30% scumdar rating. THIS IS THE ONLY PLAYER REMAINING IN THE GAME WHO DYBECK DID NOT SUSPECT EVEN IN PASSING.

That's all I've got time for today. If you have any questions on my stance, please let me know and I'll respond as soon as I can find the time.

======================

DETAILED DYBECK PBPA:

95: Replies to Elias point questioning a scumtell. The tone of this reply is different to the combatative tone he's used in replying to any of our confirmed town players: almost respectful.

120: Tells shaft.ed that he thinks Dr BS would be a liability to claim with no provocation

145: "Oman and Vampaneze's attacks on each other look like two scum putting distance between themselves because it looks like one of them is gonna get busted."

150: FoS Oman

158: "If Oman and Vampaneze do end up being scum together, can somebody please remind me that spurgistan tried to set up a third bandwagon in post 153."

173, 207: Disagreeing replies to shaft.ed and CarrotCake

222: Tells Dr. BS that his play is "quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia." Votes Dr BS.

233: Fishes for Dr. BS's role

237: Asks Elias if he is in the habit of lynching proven protown powerroles.

255: "Huh?" response to a Dr. BS post

261, 286: Disagrees with originality wagon. Claims that his two top choices for scum are Ryan (VH) and Dr. BS.

302: Votes Ryan.

361, 362: Votes shaft.ed, immediately unvotes.

385: Replies to Oman suspicion/vote of Dybeck, claims that we should focus on mafia and not on the SK

391: Tells Oman that none of his role scenarios are remotely likely

404: Replies to AlyG claim post by voting originality ... "It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday."

423, 426, 432: Continues to push orig=scum. "Certainly I don't think I want to lynch AlyG." "Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die."

433, 444: Argues that orig's vig claim can't make sense

481, 493: Continues to push orig

503: Starts to advocate orig/vollkan scum pair

541: Asks Elias for help

578, 582, 584, 586, 590, 592: More pushing on originality=scum angle

600: Accuses Vollkan of egregious misrepresentation. Wants to lynch orig.

603, 605, 626, 632: Pushing orig=scum, almost definitely mafia

634, 636, 640, 645, 647, 671, 673, 674: Numbers arguments. "There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch." "I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone."

688: Top 3 suspects: shaft.ed, vollkan, oman

695: Claims that shaft.ed and vollkan are most likely originality's scummates

743: Claims that the town-consensus list will result in his NK. "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?"

758, 761, 765, 767, 769, 776, 787: Fights with vollkan over why orig has to be lynched, and how the town consensus list is anti-town. Prefers giving Orig explicit instructions.

790, 792, 807, 809: More on how orig is obviously scum

832: Responds to my question on why Dybeck isn't acknowledging my presence: "What did you want me to say? I don't have any really strong opinions about you. You could be scum for all I know, but I think there are better lynch targets out there."

840, 845: More fighting with Vollkan about how lynching orig is the obvious play

849, 851, 853: More sparring with shaft.ed. Asks orig if he agrees with the no-kill approach.

855, 860, 869, 877, 879, 886: Argues against giving orig freedom to choose his action. Presses orig to commit to agreeing with town's consensus.

888: Posts new orig-action list: "1. No kill, 2. Oman, 3. Vollkan, 4. Lucienne"

890, 895: More in the 'Orig is scum' theme

901, 904, 922: Presses orig to agree to follow the town's lead

905, 911, 913: Asks Vollkan about the numbers. Suggests that a no-lynch might be a viable move.

940: Straw poll: "Who thinks I'll die tonight?"

951, 969: Switches back to the orig-Oman scumbuddy pair. Offers to hammer Oman. "If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked."

971: Now agrees that shaft.ed is genuinely pro-town.

973: Lucienne might be the SK

981: Responds to vollkan questions. "If I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by [vollkan], Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks." "We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in." "And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever "

987, 992: Back to orig is obvScum

998, 1000, 1019, 1022: Responds to Vollkan's consolidated case vs. Dybeck. "I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK."

1047, 1074, 1076: Orig is obvMafia and should be lynched

1089, 1095: "OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow." Votes Korlash. "I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate." (Note: Oman/Korlash never actually backed orig; orig backed Oman)

1138: "I'm still 70%-80% sure that lynching Oman would not be something we regret doing."

1150: "Yay! People are starting to look at lynches that are not me!"

1192: Claims cop.

1219: Belatedly revotes for orig.

1247: "I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you."

1252: "I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK."

1265: Lynching originality is not a bad play

1314: Won't answer questions unless they are consolidated

1347: New scumdar: "orig: 100% korlash: 90% shaft.ed: 80% Lucienne: 70% Elias: 30% vollkan: 20% Gemelli: 10% AlyG: 0%" "shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself."

1355: Long replies to a set of questions from me. Orig = mafia. "The players I believe to be scum are posting more than anyone else. It's just a fact. Strange that you should have a bigger issue with this answer than any of the others!"

1366: Asks the real cop to counterclaim to disprove his.