Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Gemelli]

Not sure what to say about two scum groups. But in regards to the dybeck slip up about the "other group" remember this is a closed game and the "other group" isn't going to know that there are two groups.

I think that a member of a scum group would be able to deduce this, though. If you started a 12-person game with info on yourself and one fellow mafioso, wouldn't you assume that there was more scum present in the game? The fact that there were two NKs last night would confirm two mafia groups (as opposed to the implausible 2 mafia/2 SKs setup).

Still, as you say, this doesn't prove anything one way or the other. I was just wondering why the possibility of two scum groups had been dismissed without comment.

Dybeck

: I haven't seen you answer this question directly, so I'll ask it. In post 743, what you said was "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?" What exactly did you mean by "the other scum group?" Do you believe that we have two mafia factions?

[Lucienne]

Yeah I know it bugs you. And I should probably be buttering you up. It seems that when I respect you, you go off the idea of lynching me, and when I shine you on, you tirelessly campaign for my lynch.

Or, you know, you aren't actually doing anything.

Also, why not say anything else? Advocating we should lynch orig for pages, and now not really advocating much about anything or anyone else just seems like scum trying to avoid making a commitment.

Originality, give me your word that you'll no-kill tonight, as almost everyone has said that they believe is the best idea, and I'll not mention your lynch again.

What if he is an SK or mafia and you are making deals with him?

How is this in the town's interests?

Dybeck: I haven't seen you answer this question directly, so I'll ask it. In post 743, what you said was "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?" What exactly did you mean by "the other scum group?" Do you believe that we have two mafia factions?

I definitely want to hear the answer to this.

FoS: Dybeck, Oman

I would most like to see one of them hang today. (dybeck for his orig push, Oman for his bandwagonning, opportunism and complete "all over the place" attitude.)

[dybeck]

Dybeck: I haven't seen you answer this question directly, so I'll ask it. In post 743, what you said was "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?" What exactly did you mean by "the other scum group?" Do you believe that we have two mafia factions?

We had two kills... I was expecting a scum group and an SK, but I suppose 2 2-man mafias (mafiae?) is not out of the question.

[originality]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

Where are you getting all this from? I've repeatedly said I consider town's opinions better then mine. Pretty crazy statement you made here. I just said I was going by the town-made lists, not that I'm deciding myself. I think this is too obvious for you not to have noticed, so you must have ignored it purposefully, like all that other stuff.

FoS dybeck

, even though I feel silly doing this, because its pretty much implied.

[dybeck]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

[shaft.ed]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

LOL. That was funny.

[vollkan]

I'm still not sure about dybeck. He's almost playing like a caricature of what you'd expect scum to be. Blantantly twisting words, fabricating events, constantly exagerating people's positions, and even contradicting his own previous viewpoints with no explanation for the change at all. I keep thinking that there's no way scum would play this blatantly bad, but why would a pro-town player do all of this?

On the other hand Oman is playing what you'd expect of scum. Making more sublte mistakes and being more opprotunistic with his voting. And once the heat got on him he disappeares from the game.

It's frustrating. Dybeck is clearly anti-town in his behaviour; I don't think we need debate that. And, yet, he is playing in such a blatantly anti-town manner that it just makes no sense to me at all. I mean, it could be a strategy in itself, but this gets tangled up in layers of messy WIFOM and I'd rather not go there.

Oman is playing like classic opportunistic scum. We've established that well and truly.

I guess the reason I am favouring dybeck is that his actions make no sense to me from a pro-town whereas I can imagine a townie acting like Oman, though his disapperance is a cause for concern. T

hat said, if Oman really was frustrated and wavering in his views, one would think he would be posting a lot more in an effort to sort things out. The fact that he has now vanished suggests more strongly that he may be scum.

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

Dybeck, the "town consensus" is effectively the same meaning as "will of the town". What the hell are you talking about here?

@Lucienne: You FoSed Oman in your most recent post, despite not explaining why. You also FoSed dybeck with no explanation other than few little questions about things he had said. This is despite the fact that you promised "full suspicions" yesterday. I smell opportunism coming from you.

mFoS: Lucienne

[shaft.ed]

The Recent Oman Gaffe

Aye, you guys did fall off my radar, I was working too hard on my mini-essay and so I was playing in the games most requiring my attention.

The town here is strong

, and we have lots of players, plus activity is high so this took a back seat (all my C9s got priority ).

Sorry to do it to you,

the idea was that you'd catch scum without me

. I'm going to bed now, (0400) but tomorrow this is my first game I promise

So Oman doesn't post for a while. And understandably states that he was very busy. I totally believe this, he's in a lot of games and a thought out Discussion Thread was posted by him in the interim. But I have issues with the above statement especially the bolded portions.

Rephrased later as:

No its, "we need to find scum, other games cannot do it without me, but teh town here is strong enoiugh without my input".

So in Oman's view the town had been hunting scum very well especially it's active posters (assuming he means vollkan, Gemelli and myself but I'll leave that for him to clarify). This statement was made after his hiatus starting on Sept. 29th, before that he had been quite active in the thread. Let's see how the town was doing at hunting scum, specifically Oman scum:

Oman

: One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him:

80% scum

(50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess

my suspicion falls back to

the second person who has raised my eyebrows today:

Oman

.

I also am suspicious of Oman's Vote hopping and bandwagonning. His votehopping has been very frequent during the course of this day and he always seems to be following up other peoples suspicions as a bandwagoner.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket vote whoever was just mentioned." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

*Post ranked Oman as most scummy player

Scummy

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%
...
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

vote: Oman

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices (

for vig'ing

) would be Oman and Elias

Oman -- 75% scum odds

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

Oman: - Probably in my eyes the most scummy player in the game. he has been bandwagonning the whole game. Whenever somene changes their vote and throws around suspicion he is always there to follow-up and always votes for the same person straight away. he is a big vote hopper and always jumps on the person getting suspicion. He seems to be trying to keep pressure on other players which is scummy. her are some examples of bandwagoning:

Long list of examples in post 676

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

To clarify - my main suspicion is Oman. Reasons - major flip-flopping and bandwagonning.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

Ok my list:

1) No Kill
2) Dybeck
3) Oman
4) Meh...Elias

AlyG thank you very very much for pointing out Oman adding you to his list. Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

vote:Oman

...
I'd like to revise my vig list:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. Elias
4. dybeck

My list:
1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).
...
Wha..!?! You want the confirmed tracker NKed.

Increase HoS on Oman

...
At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today.

Despite how dreadfully he worded this; I think Oman is trying to argue that the fact that he has now replaced AlyG with Lucienne is entirely independent of the fact that he has been called out for having AlyG on his list.

I believe the most appropriate term is "back-pedalling".

So if the town's been so good at scum hunting, and you've been the primary/secondary target of most of us posters, are you trying to say that we're correct in thinking you are scum?

[shaft.ed]

The bandwagoning history of Oman on D2.

So Oman starts to day with a vote on AlyG, a person he supported D1, quickly following vollkan's first post and ode to hurting AlyG.

Vote swings over to dybeck after his attempts at framing me for SK with a single tell don't go over so well.

Unvotes dybeck, then switches back to AlyG since we need to be more safe about the voting due to being in possible LyLo (yeah moving from a person with your 1 sole vote to someone with 2 is really safe).

Unvotes AlyG after the claim. Then immediately revotes after reading the scumminess of the claim post.

Unvotes AlyG after orig's claim.

Votes dybeck the exact post after vollkan's vote

Switches vote to orig after playing with maths (interesting that vollkan follows suit here).

Vollkan votes Oman for calling orig the SK with poor logic.

Unvotes saying it's very soon going back to dybeck or AlyG

Vollkan unvotes and switches to dybeck. The very next post (again) Oman follows suit.

I vote Elias for constant lurking in order to get him to post. The next time Oman posts in thread he votes Elias (seriously do you have a posting restriction or something?).

Oman then unvotes when vollkan points out that Elias stated he wouldn't be pressured.

Then the Oman attacks quoted above come into play calling him out for all these following votes.

[shaft.ed]

Note I'll be LA over the next week, parents in town.

[AlyG]

Sorry for my absence the last 2 days i was in brisbane. Also, that's a very good analysis of oman's bandwagonning Shaft.ed.

[dybeck]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

Dybeck, the "town consensus" is effectively the same meaning as "will of the town". What the hell are you talking about here?

I'm asking him whether if "the will of the town" were to tell him exactly who to kill (or not) tonight, would he be happy to go along with the choice of player that was decided by "the concensus of the town".

[vollkan]

I'm asking him whether if "the will of the town" were to tell him exactly who to kill (or not) tonight, would he be happy to go along with the choice of player that was decided by "the concensus of the town".

The "will of the town" is the town's "consensus"....They mean the same thing.

Dybeck, a question:
Your NK list was:

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

And yet:

As I've said, I think orig is probably mafia. Too many people are defending him for at least one or two of them not to be informed.

SK a little bit less easy. Oman's "lynch anyone but me" attitude throughout the course of this game pins him as a good candidate.

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

The only player you are able to identify in the second quote is Oman, and yet in the list your prioritise the killing of shaft.ed and myself. As such, you presumably have some reason as to why you want shaft.ed and me killed over Oman. You've failed to explain this and I demand an answer.

Also, dybeck, do you think "the will of the town" should just tell Orig to kill shaft.ed or myself?

[dybeck]

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

A lot depends on whether orig is SK or mafia, because if he's SK, your defending him and attacking me looks a lot less scummy.

And yes, I'm aware that my list consists of the three people currently trying to get me lynched. The irony is not lost on me.

[originality]

Dybeck, since you seem so fond of kill flavors, wouldn't you say that a bludgeoning in the head screams mafia?

[dybeck]

It certainly screams scum.

The traditional gun/knife of the mafia/SK are both absent, so either weapon could belong to either.

Why do you ask?

[originality]

Because you know I strangle. And I meant mafia as in the mafia, as in a goon banging someone in the back of the head. So if the other flavor is the mafia, then you know I'm not it.

[Gemelli]

IMHO, strangling sounds more like the act of a serial killer than of a vigilante.

But that's all a moot point anyway; we don't even know if the mafia and/or SK will kill the same way each night yet. For all we know, our mod picks the kill method at random every time. I think it's a mistake to use kill methods to interpret roles until we have a larger sample size to look at (morning of D3).

Updated consensus list (reflecting Dybeck's latest list):

Originality:

1. Dybeck :: 2. Lucienne :: 3. Elias :: 4. Oman

Dybeck:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. vollkan :: 4. Lucienne

Vollkan:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Oman:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Elias :: 4. Lucienne

AlyG:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Gemelli:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

shaft.ed:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Elias :: 4. Dybeck

Lucienne:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

Weighted Town Consensus to Date for Originality's Night Action:

(Position 1 = 4 points, position 2 = 3 points, etc.)

No Kill: 28 points
Dybeck: 18 points
Oman: 17 points
Elias: 10 points
Lucienne: 5 points
Vollkan: 2 points

[vollkan]

Dybeck, you do realise that if Orig is scum he is not going to follow the consensus, right?

If Orig = mafia, his NK is pretty much guaranteed so he will kill anyone (most likely who he thinks is SK)
If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today, in which case he still needs to NK a mafioso to have a hope of winning. If we mislynch today, Orig has effectively lost so he will likely just kill at random.

As such, I can't quite work out why you would be so adamant about this consensus thing when you are utterly convinced Orig is scum.

Also, dybeck, if Orig were able to commit suicide (I am pretty sure that he can), would he take #1 position on your list?

[Oman]

Okay I'm back. I shall attempt to scale the WALLZ OF TEXT tonight.

[dybeck]

Dybeck, you do realise that if Orig is scum he is not going to follow the consensus, right?

Yes. I'd like to see him do exactly that. Because then you would see that he is scum. If you give him a few people to choose from, you effectively allow him to pick a townie with impunity, and you'll have gathered no information from tonight.

Dybeck, if Orig were able to commit suicide (I am pretty sure that he can), would he take #1 position on your list?

Orig is my first pick for scum, although I think it would be a bit pointless asking him to commit suicide, because he wouldn't do it. Regardless of what side he's on, it would be a poor play for him.

[Streeflo]

I have not forgotten you guys! Votecount will come on top of the next page. Still looking for a replacement!

[AlyG]

Now i'm never going to gt my elias input. Oh well

[originality]

Holy crap, I just thought of a great reason why I can't be mafia. Bear with me here.

I think we can all agree I was a very big suspect for everyone at D1

Since AlyG tracked me, and I did the killing myself, the mafia would have to have picked me from their numbers to do the killing for that night

Now, why would they pick someone who others had reasons to suspect against? That would invoke the possibility of exactly what happened happening, me being targeted by an investigative role.

They would have picked one of them that was least on the spotlight on D1. Not someone like me.


Changing subjects, I will do the will of the town, EXCEPT if said will involves me killing myself or AlyG, because those are the only people I KNOW to be town, and in that case I would assume to know better then the town and make my own decision. Other then that, I follow your orders.

You can pretty much disregard that, because right now its pretty much the opposite of what the consensus is looking like, but its my disclaimer.

[vollkan]

Holy crap, I just thought of a great reason why I can't be mafia. Bear with me here.

I think we can all agree I was a very big suspect for everyone at D1

Since AlyG tracked me, and I did the killing myself, the mafia would have to have picked me from their numbers to do the killing for that night

Now, why would they pick someone who others had reasons to suspect against? That would invoke the possibility of exactly what happened happening, me being targeted by an investigative role.

They would have picked one of them that was least on the spotlight on D1. Not someone like me.

This logic is circular and WIFOMish.