Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)


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Post Post #575 (ISO) » Tue Sep 25, 2007 11:45 pm

Post by vollkan »

1) Okay, thanks for that.
2) This seems to be the standard view
3) I agree
4) Agree with regards to consulting Elias and Gemelli. However, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice.
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Post Post #576 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:29 am

Post by Gemelli »

Hi folks! Just checking in to say hi, and to confirm that I've picked up my role PM. I have a lot of reading to do to catch up here ... I'll post my thoughts and any opinions I might form later today (work permitting).
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Post Post #577 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:25 am

Post by shaft.ed »

OK originality please calm down with the talk of vig killing tonight. I posted many pages back about the dangers of having a second kill tonight and they are all quite obviously bad for the town. In fact I'm quite surprised you would bring this back up again
FoS originality
.
shaft.ed wrote: Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.
And orig, if you are pro-town, I believe you are playing quite naively right now. You do realize that you are listing a large number of players (4) as almost definitely town. By pure mathematics the odds of at least one of us four being mafia is 80%. I know this is a game about reading people, but the scum will be trying very hard to look pro-town. You also have to remember, if you are pro-town, the mafia know this too. Think of the townie credibility they will gain when they have all along been defending the vig that was backed into a corner. Don't be overly paranoid, but remember just because someone is on your side in an argument, doesn't make them on your side in the game. In short I'm just trying to say, in another way
please don't kill anyone tonight
.

@Elias, Thanks for responding. Even if you aren't adding content it's nice to know you're alive.
unvote
for now

@Gemelli, Thanks a lot for taking over for the good Dr. While I'm sure you won't match his unique play style, I'm also sure we'll all be better off for it.

@Oman, Your most recent example of vote hopping did not go unnoticed.
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Post Post #578 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:07 am

Post by dybeck »

AlyG wrote:Dybeck... after i claimed you immediately voted originality while completely ignoring the other roles that he could possibly be.[/b]
I didn't ignore any of the other roles he could be. I considered them all, and eliminated them one by one. I've stated the reasons for eliminating most of them. There simply is no other role that originality can have to my mind. If you lynch me today and leave him alive, I'd urge you to at least PLEASE get him to agree to have his kill directed.

He's mafia/SK (I strongly suspect mafia), and if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town.
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Post Post #579 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:11 am

Post by originality »

Whoa there shaft.ed, I understand that it is a huge risk and no one wants me to do it, but does that mean I can't talk about it? I'm trying to show all the ways it can affect us. Trust me, I won't do anything rash without discussing it first. And at least one person I am 100% sure is town, that being AlyG, for reasons known to all. And if you are scum, I deserve to lose to you, for you look townie as hell.I am willing to take the risk of accepting you as town. Vollkan and Oman are only feelings of mine, I know they are not guarantees, and I keep that in mind.

Awaiting Gemelli's review, even without any helpful claims, because his mind is fresh and his antecessor did not contribute anything at all.
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Post Post #580 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:50 am

Post by shaft.ed »

dybeck, I know there's a lot to read when revisiting the thread after the back and forths that seem to go on in the night. But could you please address the post I made earlier.
shaft.ed wrote:dybeck,
While I see what you are talking about in that AlyG's claim makes it painfully clear the originality killed a townie last night, I think you are doing a very poor job of reading into the implications of originality's actions following AlyG's claim. Originality had a lot of options open to him after AlyG's post and he decided on one that puts him in the worst possible situation where he is very likely to die tonight. Please take the time to look over my points.

1) originality could have shot back at AlyG. AlyG's claim post was scummy as hell. This has been analyzed by three players (me vollkan and Oman). All of whom commented before originality. If scum, he could have simply lied and said "no way I didn't kill anybody last night" and pushed for an AlyG lynch. While this would have resulted in his very immenent death when AlyG's role was revealed he would have at least taken down a powerrole with him. Instead originality does the opposite. He owns up to the kill and states that he firmly believes AlyG to be town. Note this goes against orig being mafia, but clearly leaves open the SK.

2) Originality didn't have to claim vig. Vigilante was probably the worst scum claim in that situation outside of Doc or Tracker #2. Sure it explains the death and so he might live past AlyG, but it a) makes him a prime target for NK regardless of alignment and b) leads to a ton more suspicion than if he had just claimed Roleblocker.
For point a) assuming he is not the vig, this means that there has to be an SK in the game. If originality is false claiming either the mafia or the SK know it, and are incredibly likely to NK him this evening or at least sometime in the near future. A SK would never do this as he has only one life to live, this would draw way too much attention to himself from the mafia and the town. The mafia are unlikely to claim vig as the SK will undoubtedly NK orig for this claim either tonight or the next at the latest.
Point b) is listed because I have seen it mentioned that the vig is the most convenient claim. I have to disagree. To me, a roleblocker would have been safe. It would explain the tracking and it would clear orig of carrotcake's death if believed. It's also less likely than a vig so not as likely to have a counterclaim. A watcher also would have sufficed in that it's unlikely to be countered. At the very least a cop claim would out the cop, note that this point does not support orig as the SK. But a vig is a rather common role, and it has not yet been countered.

Finally, we're in a precarious situation here. A mislynch puts us a LyLo in the best case scenario. I think there is enough reason to keep originality alive for the day at least. If there are two NK's tonight he's the obvious lynch tommorow (if he's still alive). Keeping him alive also has the added benefit of likely crossfire during the night, which may aid in keeping alive our claimed tracker. I think between the benefits of having him as a night distraction and the possibility that his claim is real are enough to not lynch him today.
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Post Post #581 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:47 am

Post by Gemelli »

Hoo, boy. What have I walked into? :shock:

So! The situation as I read it -- keeping in mind, I'm fairly new to the game -- is as follows:

Day 2 Lynching Goals


For Pro-town players: ideal situation is to lynch an SK if one exists. 2nd best goal is to lynch a Mafioso.
For Mafia players: ideal situation is to lynch a pro-town power role if one exists. 2nd best is to lynch serial killer. 3rd is to lynch a pro-town.
For Serial Killer (assuming one exists): ideal situation is to lynch a pro-town power role if one exists. 2nd best is to lynch Mafia (?). 3rd is to lynch pro-town (?). (2nd and 3rd priorities might be backwards)

Is that a fair assessment of the situation? I'm trying to come up with a good baseline for assessing peoples' behaviors up to this point.

Player Profiles


I've skimmed the entire thread now, and made some quick notes on what I've seen. This all comes from a single skim, so it's entirely possible I've missed key posts; please feel free to point out cases where you think that's happened. But briefly, here are my gut reactions to all of the living players in the game (and remember, it isn't personal!):

Dr. Blackstrike:
My predecessor's posts in this game are staggering. Post 73, he claims vanilla townie. Then 107, claims that he lied earlier and is a power role. Threatens to lie again in post 220. Votes for an innocent (ryan) in post 316. Frankly, if I were playing against this guy, I'd be convinced he was scum. Alas, I am playing AS this guy, and as such I have inside evidence that says I'm not. *headdesk* Anyway, I would not blame anyone for suspecting me at this point; there is certainly ample justification for that. All I have in my defense is my own knowledge that I'm pro-town, and hopefully my posts in this game will help to counterbalance what's been posted on my "behalf." And for those of you who've asked: Dr. BS did NOT receive any special information that can help the town. Sorry :(

volkann:
One of the most active players since joining. Tends to post well-reasoned (and usually mathematically sound) opinions, and is quick to identify flaws in others' arguments. Has moved votes around quite a bit on Day 2 (AlyG, dybeck, originality, oman, dybeck again). His ability to assess situations in detail (or fake it) makes him either a serious asset to the Town, or a very dangerous scum. My odds on him: 75% town, 25% scum (mafia/SK).

Lucienne:
Largely inactive. Has focused mostly on Oman, originality, and myself as suspects. Is sparing with votes and FoS, but almost always provides background as to why she's voted/posted as she has. My odds on her: 60% town, 40% scum.

dybeck:
All votes Day 1 were for innocent players (myself, VH/ryan). However, has also offered frequent "voice of reason" posts to help slow down bandwagons -- e.g., see posts 95, 207, 261. I find myself agreeing with his conclusions more often than not. Currently focused on originality and shaft.ed as suspects. My odds on him: 60% town, 40% scum.

shaft.ed:
I have been having a very hard time getting a read on this player. Day 1, generally supported Oman and suspected VH/ryan, myself, dybeck, and AlyG. Day 2, has been mostly focused on AlyG as a suspect, with votes for dybeck and Elias thrown into the mix. Subjectively, I am getting a much more pro-town vibe from his posts over the last week or so. My odds on him: 55% town, 45% scum.

Elias_the_thief:
Has been largely inactive. Some brief sparring matches with dybeck, Oman, and Dr. BS. Very hard to know where Elias's loyalties stand with this minimal content. My odds on him: 55% scum, 45% town.

AlyG:
Divided Day 1 attention between originality, VH/ryan, CarrotCake and Lucienne. Day 2, claimed tracker, forced claim from originality. Currently has HoS on dybeck. Does not seem possible that AlyG *and* originality are both scum. My odds on him: 55% scum, 45% town.

Oman:
One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him: 80% scum (50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

originality:
Pushed for a lynch of VH/ryan (confirmed innocent). Has claimed vigilante. Almost certainly responsible for the death of CarrotCake (confirmed innocent), a decision he made based only on "a vibe" and being one of the "quietest" players (which certainly isn't true when compared to Lucienne or Elias). Has been a fairly consistent supporter of Oman. Currently offering to let the town direct his next night action. My odds on him: 90% scum (60% mafia, 30% SK), 10% vig with poor judgement.

Follow-Ups


(1) All: For those of you who currently suspect dybeck, can you summarize your reasons? I haven't seen anything compelling from today's perusal.
(2) Volkann: In post 439, you listed several possible tracker/vig scenarios. I was confused as to why you included a two-Mafia scenario where originality is scum (#4), but not a single-Mafia one. Can you explain your thinking?

===============

Questions, comments, and all other types of content-rich responses are welcome :D
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Post Post #582 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:54 am

Post by dybeck »

Shaft.ed, my point is that there really
were
no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

If I voted anyone other than originality, it would be purely for the reason he used the word "antecessor", which is cool :)
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Post Post #583 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:29 am

Post by originality »

Woah. Dybeck's reasoning just right now is good. Pretty good. In fact, I'd probably vote for myself if I wasn't so sure I was town. Part of my vote on him was thinking his logic was completely ridiculous, and this decent summary of his thoughts sort of help that bit. However, his aggressiveness is the reason I am not unvoting. Its been the same all throughout the game, like on post 87, and how quickly he changed his mind about me, from "I'm not feeling his lynch" to "Visited someone at night and he died. No discussion, must be scum" before I had even claimed vig. And he seems to not even consider the possibility that I am actually vig, while I know I am, and I don't understand how you can be so 100% certain of something like that. Plus his jump on shaft.ed for being the sk is crazy for me, as someone who knows there is no sk.

tl;dr version: That was a well thought out post dybeck just made, but there are fishier things about him then just his logic.

And Gemelli, wow, it looks like I'm on your top list for scum. And probably mafia, nonetheless. Well, here's what I've been saying about how I can't be mafia: I'd not claim vig. I'd claim something safer for me instead, and if someone counterclaimed me It would be OK, because if I got lynched I'd have partners who would now know one more powerrole to kill that night.
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Post Post #584 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:37 am

Post by dybeck »

What would you have claimed then, originality, had you been mafia?

I'm intrigued.
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Post Post #585 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:51 am

Post by originality »

Probably cop or watcher. Chances are we have a cop, and he would counterclaim me right then, exposing himself. I think a cop kill would be the best NK the mafia could make.

Watcher would be damn safe for me. I'd have the excuse of either wanting to know if carrotcake was mafia or a powerrole that could help us or what have you, it is a pretty open role that could have plenty of possibilities, depending on how everyone else took it. We might have one that counterclaims me, and again it would be a bonus knowledge for my mafia buddies.

I could also go all Dr. Blackstrike on us, as in saying "Yes I am indeed a powerrole, but I guarantee I did not kill carrotcake and I am not going to tell you what I am." The risk factor of lynching a powerrole seemed to work well with blackstrike, and everyone could interpret this as they saw better and I could take advantage of my best opening.

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

I think that the mafia would definitely not admit to have any sort of killing role, its too close to the truth.
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Post Post #586 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:02 pm

Post by dybeck »

Do you think people would have believed watcher?

More than vig? Seems pretty unlikely in a game this size, no? Why would people find it more plausible than vig?

What is it about a vig claim that would have made you think it was an inferior claim?
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Post Post #587 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:23 pm

Post by originality »

Well, I seriously considered lying or something to keep the mafia's attention away from me at night, but I remembered that that would come back to bite me in the ass if I ever wanted to claim, and townies lying always end up making trouble, for whatever reason. Plus that would leave AlyG open for them, and I rather they kill me then a tracker, because at this time in the game I'm almost useless, and will definitely be useless by night three anyway. A tracker would remain useful.

Yea I'd think watcher is at least as plausible as a tracker.

And if I were scum claiming vig, wouldn't I have claimed 1 or 2 shot vig just to make me seem less of a potential danger?


A vig claim is inferior because its basically saying "OK OK I admit it I killed him but I'm not mafia, see, I'm a vig! I'm on your side guys!" Which sounds suspicious as hell, and also a pretty weak defense. I tottally understand the suspicion against me and understood people would not immediately believe me, but its a risk I had to take. The alternative would be terrible for the town, which would be either a)me knowing AlyG is the tracker but saying he is a lyar anyway just to save my ass
or b) Claiming something like cop, which would make the real cop come out and be exposed for mafia.
So its either me claiming a role everyone would have a hard time believing, or end up damaging the town.

I think my best defense here is: If I wanted to damage the town I'd have chosen cop. Or something similar.

If you were a vig in my situation, would you have claimed?
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Post Post #588 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:42 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

dybeck thanks for chiming and giving a lot of insight behind your reasoning this time around. It'll be nice to get a back and forth going on this one.
dybeck wrote:Shaft.ed, my point is that there really
were
no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.
Agreed
dybeck wrote: A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.
If mafia, a cop claim would have at least outed the cop. Personally I think this is a better outcome than a vig claim. For that reason I think not claiming cop helps rule out mafia but not SK. And I personally didn't know about that flaw in the roleblocker claim. I'll file that in my notebook in case I play a mafia role in the future.
dybeck wrote: It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.
I wouldn't call it wildly improbable but it's always 'convenient' when someone claims a non-standard role, that's unlikely for a counter claim. Mildly agree with this point
dybeck wrote: After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.
I would not say anyone was
far
scummier yesterday than anyone else. The day showed a lot of scummy behavior from a lot of players, but since ryan decided to be an ass we had no lynching votes to go on. I personally found AlyG and originality even in scuminess yesterday, but both of their actions could also be seen as newb tells. And if you also take into account that AlyG was basically the punching bag throughout the beginings of today, I don't think many people would agree with you that originality was more scummy at the time than AlyG. In fact I don't know if you'd agree with yourself:
dybeck wrote:2)a) the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum. That's it.
dybeck wrote: It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.
Not banging over old ground you're actually supporting your arguments a bit better this time. But I have to ask are you more sure orig is scum than I am the serial killer?
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Post Post #589 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:44 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

originality wrote: And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.
Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

And claiming 1 shot vig is pretty poor idea orig. Why would a one shot vig use their one shot with so little information?
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Post Post #590 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:46 pm

Post by dybeck »

No vig in your situation would have hammered Carrotcake, so a vig claim would be a little more plausible if a vig had been in your situation.

And the point is, your primary aim was not to damage the town, your primary aim was to stay alive. Particularly if you're the SK and not mafia.

And I'm not asking whether your claim is as plausible as AlyG's. You've already told us you believe AlyG. I'm pointing out that there were no plausible claims in your situation, and that you did the best you could in your situation. Clearly a tracker claim was not an option for you.
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Post Post #591 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:15 pm

Post by originality »

Ok, I think that your primary reason against me is my killing of carrotcake. The rest I explained pretty well just now, but the carrotcake bit is keeping you begrudged. I don't know how else to say that I thought that carrotcake was scummy, so I'm going argue why would scum NK him. His major and I think only antagonism was against AlyG. I know him to be town, and you think so too. Now why would a scum kill carrotcake seeing as how he wasn't threatening any of their members? They wouldn't. He did not go against anybody except AlyG. If I were scum the townie I'd want to kill most would be either shaft.ed or spurgistan for inciting better thoughts against people(I know, I know, its easy to say because he was killed, but you know it's true). Truth is only you found carrotcake "the super pro-town rolemodel", and I thought that the way he acted looked a lot like a scum cover up.
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Post Post #592 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:22 pm

Post by dybeck »

If I were scum, I'd have killed carrotcake.

Too quiet to be likely to get doctor protection. Quiet enough to have been keeping low to be protecting a power role, yet always actively scumhunting.

Good town player.
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Post Post #593 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:32 pm

Post by originality »

I don't know what else to say, except that if I were scum I'd get the most active ones.

I suddenly feel like you are less irrational and therefore only conflicting opinions are happening. If we do lynch you I want to think more about this
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Post Post #594 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

Honestly I don't find either of your arguments about Carrotcake convincing. While Carrotcake wasn't that suspicious he was lurking. I'd say Carrotcake was not a likely choice for vig, but not an obvious choice for scum. I'd lean this one in the scummy direction, but not very heavily.
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Post Post #595 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:38 pm

Post by originality »

Alright, I wasn't gonna mention this because I was too concentrated on dybeck, but
vote lucienne
.

I dare anyone to name one "townie" thing she did. All she's done is FoS everyone that others already talked about. Very passive playing. I am very surprised no one has noticed this before. Its no little thing either, she has posted the bare minimum, containing the bare minimum information for her not to be prodded. It has become even laughable at times, when everyone is jumping on a serious bandwaggon for concrete reasons, shes just all "Oh, yes, I do find him sort of suspicious, but I dunno. I'll FoS someone else who everybody also thinks is suspicious, though I'm not too sure." Absolutely perfect example of someone trying not to invoke attention. Even the FoSes have been sparce. And following my logic, three of those are scum: Elias, Lucienne, dybeck, Gemelli, and maybe Vollkan or Oman. I think Lucienne is likely. I want to hear everyone's thoughts.



By the way, I'm not getting what everyone finds so suspicious against Oman. Can someone tell me, so maybe I stop being naive about something I'm not seeing?
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Post Post #596 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:38 pm

Post by Gemelli »

Shaft.ed, originality: Who would be your top 2 choices for lynching tonight, and why?
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Post Post #597 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:40 pm

Post by originality »

I'd say dybeck and lucienne, even though I am no longer feeling 100% on anyone. Reasons already stated.
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Post Post #598 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:38 pm

Post by vollkan »

Dybeck wrote: He's mafia/SK (I strongly suspect mafia), and if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town.
After his judgment yesterday, I am not trusting him with making kills. It's pretty damn ironic that you are suspicious of him and think he is scum because he killed a very pro-town player, but now you WANT him to kill.
Orig wrote: Whoa there shaft.ed, I understand that it is a huge risk and no one wants me to do it, but does that mean I can't talk about it? I'm trying to show all the ways it can affect us. Trust me, I
won't do anything rash w
ithout discussing it first. And at least one person I am 100% sure is town, that being AlyG, for reasons known to all. And if you are scum, I deserve to lose to you, for you look townie as hell.I am willing to take the risk of accepting you as town. Vollkan and Oman are only feelings of mine, I know they are not guarantees, and I keep that in mind.
Not "anything rash"..."ANYTHING". You are not to kill tonight under any circumstances unless you receive the express permission from a majority of the rest of us.
Gemelli wrote: Is that a fair assessment of the situation? I'm trying to come up with a good baseline for assessing peoples' behaviors up to this point.
Yeah, pretty good. I might say that maf will be as happy with SK as pro-town power role, but generally you have the idea.
Gemelli wrote: (1) All: For those of you who currently suspect dybeck, can you summarize your reasons? I haven't seen anything compelling from today's perusal.
Primarily his stubborn support for lynching Orig. There is no pro-town reason that we should get rid of him, and yet Dybeck persists in ignoring everything that has been said.
Gemelli wrote: (2) Volkann: In post 439, you listed several possible tracker/vig scenarios. I was confused as to why you included a two-Mafia scenario where originality is scum (#4), but not a single-Mafia one. Can you explain your thinking?
Well, #2 was where Orig is maf/SK and AlyG was tracker. #4 was where both AlyG and Orig are mafia together.
Dybeck wrote: Shaft.ed, my point is that there really were no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.
Very good post. You actually are making a damn good point. I retract what I have been saying all along about you being stubborn on this; your reasons are very strong.

The only problem here, though, is that all you have proved is that vig is a safe claim for scum. This doesn't prove that he is scum. Actually, given this logic, it kind of debunks the whole argument that Orig is not a SK.
Orig wrote: And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.
Oh dear, gaping hole in your logic here and it has made me think of something.

If you are SK, you KNOW that the other kill was mafia. Therefore, you could be reasonably sure that vig was a safe claim (given that nobody had vigged AlyG who seemed like obv scum).
Orig wrote: His major and I think only antagonism was against AlyG. I know him to be town, and you think so too. Now why would a scum kill carrotcake seeing as how he wasn't threatening any of their members? They wouldn't. He did not go against anybody except AlyG.
CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent.
Thus, she was a threat to the scum.
By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG.
It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot.




My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess my suspicion falls back to the second person who has raised my eyebrows today: Oman.
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Post Post #599 (ISO) » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:54 pm

Post by Oman »

Mass game message: Finished schooling, gonna be out tonight and hungover tomorrow. I should post.
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